www.isciences.com April 5, 2013

Kyoto and Beyond

The 11th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change

Reporton

DOHA COP18

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Introduction

Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992.

Report on Doha is a summary of the negotiations that transpired at COP18, the 18th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 8th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which was held Nov. 26 – Dec. 7, 2012 in Doha, Qatar.

* Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html

Other presentations in the Kyoto and Beyond series include*: 2008 Kyoto and Beyond 2009 Kyoto and Beyond, Update 2009 Report on Copenhagen COP15 2010 Road to Cancun COP16 2011 Report on Cancun COP16

2011 Road to Durban COP17 2012 Report on Durban COP17 2012 Road to Rio+20 2012 Report on Rio+20 2012 Road to Doha COP18

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Overview

Outcomes

Climate Science

Looking Ahead

This presentation includes hyperlinks to additional information indicated by underlined text.

Contents

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Overview: Timeline1992

UN Framework Convention on

Climate Change

2009Copenhagen

Accord drafted at COP15

2007IPCC 4th

Assessment Report2010

Cancun Agreements drafted at COP16

Arctic Sea Ice ExtentSept. 1999

Arctic Sea Ice ExtentSept. 2011

2005Kyoto Protocol

enters into force

1992 | 1997 | 2002 | 2007 | 2012 1992 | 1997 | 2002 | 2007 | 2012

1990IPCC 1st

Assessment Report released

1997Kyoto Protocol

adopted

2011Durban Platform

adopted at COP17

(Image Credit: NASA)

2012Doha Climate

Gateway adopted at

COP18

2001IPCC 3rd

Assessment Report

1995IPCC 2nd

Assessment Report

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Overview: Global Conditions

Increasingly, the global community has issued urgent warnings about the need for action on climate change.

“We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations.” – US President Barack Obama, inaugural speech Jan. 21, 2013

"There will be water and food fights everywhere.“ - Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank, at the World Economic Forum Jan. 23, 2013

"I got it wrong on climate change - it's far, far worse … Do we want to play Russian roulette with two bullets or one? These risks for many people are existential … What we're talking about then is extended world war.“ – Lord Nicholas Stern, economist, at the World Economic Forum Jan. 23, 2013

“We’re on track for a 4°C warmer world marked by extreme heat-waves, declining global food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and life-threatening sea level rise.”– World Bank and Potsdam Institute Report, Nov. 2012, Turn Down the Heat

(Image Credit: Center for American Progress Action Fund via Wikimedia Commons)

“Unless we take action on climate change, future generations will be roasted, toasted, fried and grilled” – Christine Lagarde, managing director International Monetary Fund at the World Economic Forum Jan. 23, 2013

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Overview: Objectives

COP18’s objectives were to: finalize KP2, close the Long-term Cooperative Action strand, and advance discussions on the new post-KP 2020 treaty. Finalize the KP 2nd Commitment Period. Adopt duration, emissions targets, and

rules. (AWG-KP*)

Close the LCA. Resolve remaining issues of the Bali Action Plan and retire the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action. (AWG-LCA*)

Create a new treaty. Begin a process to translate the all-inclusive directive of the Durban Platform into a new, post-KP legal instrument under which all nations will have emissions reduction targets. (ADP*)

At its conclusion COP18 closed the working groups on the Kyoto Protocol and on Long-term Cooperative Action. Henceforth, the Durban Platform will be the single negotiating forum.

* AWG-KP Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol; AWG-LCA Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention; ADP Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action.

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Outcomes: Doha Climate Gateway

The term "Doha Climate Gateway,” coined by COP18 President al-Attiyah, refers to the package of outcomes from COP18 in Doha.

After 13 lackluster yet contentious days, a package of decisions called the “Doha Climate Gateway” was delivered, accompanied by sighs of relief but no fanfare.

(Image Credit: UNFCCC)

"Doha has opened up a new gateway to bigger ambition and to greater action - the Doha Climate Gateway” – Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, President COP 18

Al-Attiyah, whose advisors included oil company lawyers, eventually enlisted the help of Brazil’s Luiz Alberto Figueiredo Machado, a force at Rio+20, and South Africa’s Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, COP17 President.

In the final plenary, Al-Attiya quickly gaveled through all the decisions and overruled a serious objection from Russia on carry-over of surplus allowances in the Kyoto Protocol.

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Outcomes: KP2 Transition

Duration. The 2nd KP commitment period is 8 years, Jan. 1, 2013-Dec. 31, 2020.

Ratification. Parties may provisionally apply the amendment , pending its entry into force through national ratification.

Players. Japan, New Zealand, and Russia will not participate. Canada left the Protocol in 2011. What's left will have limited impact as the KP now represents only 15% of carbon emissions.

“If not us, then who? If not now, then when? If not here, then where?”

Before breathing last gasps of life into the Kyoto Protocol by adopting terms of its 2nd period, negotiators witnessed this impassioned plea from Philippine representative Naderev Sano. (Image and Video Credit: DavidLeeWilsonYT;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OjAv4aBiqY)

Global reactions included both relief that the troubled Protocol would bridge the gap until a 2020 treaty and disappointment that the Protocol would never fulfill the destiny envisioned at its inception.

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Outcomes: KP2 “Hot Air”

Agreement was reached on KP2’s “hot air” details – new emissions targets and carry-over of surplus carbon credits. Emissions targets. KP2 Annex I parties committed to emissions

reductions averaging 18% below 1990 levels and will review commitments by 2014 to increase ambition to at least 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020.

Currently, the new targets trail significantly behind the IPCC’s recommendation of 25%-40% below 1990 levels by 2020 to keep global temperature rise to 2C.

Flexibility mechanisms. KP2 Annex I parties will be able to trade carbon credits generated by flexibility mechanisms. Non-KP2 parties (Canada, Japan, Russia, New Zealand) may participate in CDM* projects but cannot acquire or transfer credits.

Carbon credits. KP2 parties are allowed limited, conditional carry-over of surplus credits from KP1. Credits will be held in a new account (“Previous Period Surplus Reserve”) and can be traded if a country exceeds its new target and if that target is more ambitious than KP1. The number of credits countries can trade is limited.

* CDM-Clean Development Mechanism

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Outcomes: KP2 Dissent

One of the most vocal dissents at COP18 came from Russia over restrictions on carbon credit carry-over.

For some time now Russia has declared that it will not participate in KP2, but now may take other countries with it.

Russia and several other Eastern European countries had amassed a huge cache of carbon credits from closure of state-owned industrial enterprises and fought to retain these.

There is speculation that Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan could refuse to ratify the extension of Kyoto.

Russia

Ukraine Kazakhstan

Belarus

A month after COP18, Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan met to discuss an amendment to the KP that requires industrialized countries to not exceed 2008-10 emissions levels. They contend that they should not be required to meet the goal as they continue to industrialize.

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Outcomes: LCA & Bali Action Plan

Negotiators in Doha retired the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Bali Action Plan (AWG-LCA) and channeled remaining issues into ongoing UNFCCC subsidiary bodies.

Shared Vision Mitigation Adaptation Loss and Damage Technology Finances Economies in Transition

Issues:

Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan, Dec. 8, 2012

Doha’s actions on these issues were rendered in the outcome document “Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan.”

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Outcomes: Shared VisionCOP18 asserted the Common But Differentiated Responsibilities principle (CBDR) as Parties “urgently work towards the deep reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.”

COP18 reaffirmed that the time frame for peaking will be longer in developing countries and that their efforts will be based on “respective capabilities.”

This “shared vision” includes attainment of global peaking of GHG emissions as soon as possible, consistent with science and the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC.

Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan, Section I, Dec. 8, 2012

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Outcomes: Mitigation

Mitigation outcomes for developed countries focused on ambition and targets. Work to increase ambitions in line with the IPCC AR4*; Clarify emissions targets through a work program to be established 2013-2014 by the Subsidiary Body for

Scientific and Technical Advice (SBSTA*); countries must submit clarification of their targets by Mar. 25, 2013.

* IPCC AR4-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 4; SBSTA-Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice ; SBI-Subsidiary Body for Implementation

Much of the oversight responsibility for mitigation efforts was transferred to UNFCCC subsidiary bodies.

Mitigation outcomes for developing countries focused on Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs).

Advance the understanding of NAMAs through a work program to be established 2013-2014 by the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI*);

The Secretariat will organize regional technical workshops on NAMAs.

Introduced as a new mechanism in the Bali Action Plan 2007, NAMAs recognize individual country actions defined on the basis of economic and social development needs, and thereby make them eligible for international support in the form of capacity building, technology and financial assistance.

NAMAsNationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions

The NAMA Partnership – a coalition of UN agencies, development banks, and bilateral organizations - was launched on the sidelines of COP18 to share information and coordinate NAMA activities

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Outcomes: REDD+

REDD+* donor countries, led by Norway, asserted that payments should be tied to quantified emissions reductions, and urged independent verification.

Little progress was made on REDD+ at COP18. Negotiations centered on results-based finance.

Some believe that REDD+ will move in the direction of forest carbon trading.

Mangrove ForestCredit: Arunchristopher via Wikimedia Commons

* REDD+- Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation; SBSTA-Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice ; SBI-Subsidiary Body for Implementation

Developing countries, led by Brazil, want results-based finance to include social and environmental benefits, and argue that they are already required to submit GHG inventories to receive climate finance.

COP18 concluded with no agreement on the issues. The SBSTA* and SBI* will initiate a process to improve the coordination and support for REDD+ activities.

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Outcomes: Markets

Parties also agreed to recognize mechanisms established outside the UNFCCC, such as national or bilateral offsets.

Tasks related to the use of markets and of “new market mechanisms” in mitigation were passed on to the UNFCCC’s Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice.

COP18 requested the SBSTA* to conduct separate work programs to elaborate a framework for using markets and non-market approaches, and to establish procedures for “new market-based mechanisms.”

New market mechanisms might cover a whole sector in a developing country rather than individual projects as the CDM* does.

Concepts include sectoral trading (cap-and-trade) and sectoral crediting (a baseline-and-credit approach).

Building on the success of the Clean Development Mechanism, the UNFCCC intends to establish new market-based instruments within the international climate policy framework that would generate carbon credits which can be used to meet part of developed countries targets.

New Market Mechanisms

* SBSTA - SBSTA-Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice ; CDM-Clean Development Mechanism

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Outcomes: Adaptation

The COP made decisions on two important adaptation matters: National Adaptation Plans and the Adaptation Committee.

COP18 approved guidelines to help Parties develop National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) – long-term, flexible, and iterative planning processes to help build adaptive capacity and respond to climate change.

The Adaptation Committee will hold an annual forum in conjunction with the COP to improve global exchange on adaptation.

Monsoon floods in Ambala, India 2010Credit: Harsh Mangal via Wikimedia Commons

A 3-yr work plan of the Adaptation Committee to unite various adaptation workstreams under the UNFCCC and outside the Convention was also approved.

This is a departure from National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPAs) – short-term, highly project-based, limited to Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Both LDCs and non-LDC developing countries will receive funding to develop NAPs from the Global Environment Facility.

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Outcomes: “Loss & Damage”

One surprise at Doha was the emergence of a strong movement to articulate the UNFCCC’s role in addressing loss and damage associated with climate change.

Under pressure from LDCs* and island states Parties agreed to establish institutional arrangements to help vulnerable, developing countries deal with losses and damages from climate change.

This could provide means to address rehabilitation, reconstruction, and compensation for damages from extreme and slow-onset weather events such as storms, heavy rainfall, hurricanes, flooding, and drought. However, interpreting this declaration into action was left to future COPs.

Some developed countries voiced objections to any articulation in the loss and damage concept that implied liability by countries with historically high GHG emissions.*LDCs-Least Developed Countries

Draft decision-/CP.18, Approaches to address loss and damage, para 9

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Outcomes: TechnologyDoha did not advance the conversation on technology transfer or the contentious issue of intellectual property rights.

The UNFCCC has evolved several conduits for development and transfer of technology.*

* See: UNFCCC Technology Work, http://unfccc.int/focus/technology/items/7000.php

There is no reference to IPR in the outcome document, rendering IPR’s relation to technology transfer in the UNFCCC decidedly vague.

The contentious issue of intellectual property rights (IPR), one of the most controversial issues in Doha, generated spirited discussion. Developing countries supported further consideration of IPR, while developed countries were opposed.

In Doha Parties agreed to clarify at upcoming COPs the relationships between these bodies, particularly between the Technology Executive Committee (TEC) and the Climate Technology and Network Centre (CTNC). UNEP was selected to lead a consortium and develop the CTCN.

Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan

, Section IV, Dec. 8, 2012

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Outcomes: FinancesAt COP18 countries were urged to scale up climate finance since many have not begun to fulfill commitments made in Copenhagen to mobilize US$100 billion per year by 2020 for adaptation and mitigation.

Germany, UK, France, Denmark, Sweden and the EU Commission pledged $10 billion USD up to 2015.

The Doha agreement called on them to pledge a portion specifically for 2013-15 to prevent a gap between the “fast start finance” period (which ended in 2012) and 2020.

Recognizing that financial tracking has been problematic, Doha scheduled accounting issues to be addressed by 2014.

Economies-in-Transition (EITs) will be allowed some flexibility until 2020 with regard to the provision of financial resources to non-Annex I parties. EITs are Parties officially recognized by the UNFCCC as transitioning to a market economy.

Agreed outcome pursuant to the Bali Action Plan, Section V, Dec. 8, 2012

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Outcomes: 2020 Treaty

Parties agreed to work speedily toward a universal climate change agreement covering all countries from 2020 to be adopted by 2015, and to scale up efforts before 2020 beyond existing emissions reduction pledges.Discussions on the Durban Platform will proceed under two workstreams: pre-2020 and post-2020.

To work speedily toward a new treaty, a second session of the ADP* may be held Apr. 29-May 3, 2013 in Bonn, Germany if funding is available.

Meetings and workshops will be held in 2013 to prepare the new agreement.

* ADP-Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action

Image: UN FlagsCredit: Aotearoa via Wikimedia Commons

Proposals to enhance ambition must be submitted by governments by Mar. 1, 2013. To mobilize political will world leaders will convene in 2014 at the request of UN

Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. Elements of a negotiating text must be available at the end of 2014 and a draft text

must be available before May 2015.

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Science: Emerging Issues

But while the multilateral negotiating process slowly grinds on, climate science supports more aggressive efforts.

Current KP2 emissions reduction commitments from Annex I countries average 18%*. A new study** suggests that Annex I countries will need to reduce emissions by 50% for a “medium chance of achieving 2C.”

* average of 18% emission reduction by Annex I parties below 1990 levels by 2020; BAU-business as usual** den Elzen, Michel G.J., Andries F. Hof,Mark Roelfsema. Analysing the greenhouse gas emission reductions of the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I countries by 2020.Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Department of Climate, Air and Energy, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands

According to the report, the contribution to the global CO2 budget reduction from non-Annex I countries is tracking in figures low enough to necessitate a significant jump in the target for Annex I countries.

Though COP18 articulated that Annex I commitments must increase to 25-40% by 2020, as recommended in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, this may not be enough.

“One of the main findings is that new BAU emission projections have led to about 2.5 GtCO2eq higher emission levels expected from pledges by non-Annex I countries…This implies that for a medium chance of achieving 2 °C, Annex I countries would need to reduce its emissions by about 50% below 1990 levels by 2020”

- Michel G. J. den Elzen, et al, Analysing the greenhouse gas emission reductions of the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I countries by 2020.Netherlands , 2013

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Science: Balancing the BudgetMany scientists believe that 2C is too lenient a target, and that the window of opportunity to constrain that trajectory is quickly closing.

“With a twenty-year delay, you can throw as much money as you have at the problem, and the best outcome you can get is a fifty-fifty chance of keeping temperature rise below two degrees.” – Keywan Riahi, IIASA* energy program leader

Current scientific estimates place our global “carbon budget” at no more than about 565 gigatons of CO2 by 2050 to still have a reasonable chance of staying within the 2C target.

Average global temperature is up 0.8C, and models indicate that even if CO2 levels stabilized immediately the increase would continue.

At current rates (2011 emissions were 31.6 gigatons, up 3.2% from 2010) we are projected to expend that budget by 2024.

Tough targets could force sequestration of 80% of an estimated 2,795 gigatons of untapped fossil fuel reserves.

* IIASA – International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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Ahead: COP19 Warsaw

The UNFCCC will reconvene at COP19 in Warsaw, Poland Nov.11-22, 2013.

Poland, like Qatar, has work to do to convince the global forum that it can lead an effective climate summit. During COP18 Poland argued over carbon credits and held the EU back from greater emissions cuts.

Watch for future installments of ISciences’ “Kyoto and Beyond” series at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html.

What’s Next?Nov. 11-22, 2013: COP19 Warsaw, 19th Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 9th Session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol

The larger issue is whether the UNFCCC’s lumbering and beleaguered brand can produce effective multilateral action.

Failing that, will any strong bi- or tri-lateral coalitions emerge in time?

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Final Thought

“If not us, then who? If not now, then when? If not here, then where?”Naderev Sano,

Philippine representative at COP18 Doha,Dec. 2012

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Citation

When referencing this presentation please use the following citation.

ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Report on Doha COP18. A slideshow; 11th installment in the series Kyoto and Beyond – the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate Change. April 5, 2013. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com.