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www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk @ChurchGrowthRD #EvidenceToAction From Evidence to Action 4 th December 2014 Canon Dr George Lings Director - Church Armys Research Unit Church Growth: fresh expressions of Church 1 Slide 2 2 An analysis of fresh expressions of Church and church plants begun in the period 1992-2012 Church Armys Research Unit Work sponsored by The Church Army as part of a St John Durham consortium & The Church Commissioners Strand 3b of the Church Growth Research Project Elspeth McGann Claire Dalpra George Lings Jon Vivian Slide 3 www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk @ChurchGrowthRD #EvidenceToAction From Evidence to Action 4 th December 2014 Church Growth: I rather doubt it Fresh expressions of Church save the world We were part of a welcome shift to decisions based on evidence rather than relying on anecdote or assumption 3 Slide 4 4 A representative selection of dioceses : North/south/east/west Urban mixed rural Pro fxC unconvinced All their fxC, begun in the period 1992-2012 Result: 98.5% response rate from all the leads given We interviewed the leaders by phone, using a pre-set questionnaire In the leaders view Slide 5 www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk @ChurchGrowthRD #EvidenceToAction From Evidence to Action 4 th December 2014 Findings missional & ecclesial Fresh expression = contextualised & missional of Church = the identity is ecclesial Missional with Ecclesial = fresh expression of Church Omit either its not an fxC [its OK to be something else] Our ten criteria tested for the presence of both Only 46% of all cases qualified H 2 O Hydrogen with Oxygen = Water Leave either out and you dont get water 5 Slide 6 Missional measures of fresh expressions of Church in 10 dioceses 6 It turned out to be against a hitherto unknown backdrop of decline in the dioceses selected www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk @ChurchGrowthRD #EvidenceToAction Slide 7 7 How many fxC and how many attend? Dioc AWA 2011 fxC attd all age fxC/dioc % 28600293310.3 19900317716.0 15900181111.4 1800014658.1 4150018304.4 21500286413.3 1610010836.7 2720027029.9 17200172710.0 1370012719.3 Diocese nos of fxC Diocese no. Ch's fxC/dioc Chs % Liverpool7825830.2 Canterbury7232822.0 Leicester5231316.6 Derby4633013.9 Chelmsford505988.4 Norwich636389.9 Ripon & Leeds3925615.2 Blackburn6427823.0 Bristol3320516.1 Portsmouth2117312.1 In 7 / 10 cases the growth from the fxC reverses the decline in these dioceses in the 6 years [06-11] of their reported figures 20863 518 15.3% 9.5% Slide 8 8 When did the fxC start? by Diocese Most cases are post Mission-shaped Church The annual rate of starts is now x 4 compared with 2004 Slide 9 In the leaders opinion The de-churched and non-churched greatly exceed the already Christians The non-churched are growing - a pressing major mission field It would now be prudent to survey the attenders so we are doing it 9 Slide 10 Adults and teens/children at fxC Diocese Attendance [all ages]Adult 1 tradition NB The tables show what percentage of cases owned one of the named traditions, at least in part DioceseEvangelicalCharismaticCentralAnglo Catholic Liverpool7323249 Canterbury6444426 Leicester7744314 Derby6141484 Chelmsford8034288 Norwich51245914 Ripon & Leeds44414623 Blackburn53115014 Bristol61215512 Portsmouth4838575 Averages61.2%32.1%44%9.9% Slide 23 fresh expressions of Church and inherited Church; Is this comparing apple seeds with apple trees? Their name claims Their data shows Their aspirations reveal They are Church already not seeds Its more like comparing growing children/ teens with adults Maturity can occur in any of them and be absent too Identity is deeper than competence or practice Helpful in some ways but 23 Slide 24 Growth patterns across fxC in 10 dioceses An open question: how many of the 1 st 3 categories count as success? A research question what factors contribute to the variety? 24 Slide 25 25 The mortality rate in fxC Diocese: Liverpool Canterbury Leicester Derby Chelmsford Norwich Ripon & L Blackburn Bristol Portsmouth No. died 4 10 4 7 5 4 3 10 1 2 9.7% 50 /518 fxC 36% of the died took no steps towards discipleship. The average of no steps for the 10 diocs = 22% 36% of the died took no steps towards a three self ID. That average in 10 diocs = 26% 54% of the died had celebrated communion but of those still alive, 38% had done so Examples meeting fortnightly are the most likely [16%] to die Slide 26 Loose Ends 26 Making the lessons available: Chapter 7 has 2 pages on distilled lessons and traps to avoid The pdf full report is available on the websites of Church of England Fresh Expressions Anglican Church Planting Initiatives Printed 137 pp versions are on sale today at 10 The 26 pp more popular pdf version and a short DVD, for parishes, can be found at www.churcharmy.org.uk/fxCresearch Slide 27 Further action since Most of the 1 st 10 dioceses have asked for a report to their senior staff and some to diocesan synod With the Church Commissioners support, Church Army have started on the next 10 dioceses Some dioceses have taken the initiative to request being included Now the work is large enough to compare different types of fxC, not least church plants with the rest We report in 2016 on the 20 dioceses, on survey work with attenders and a pilot on sustainability 27 Slide 28 In conclusion About one quarter of the English dioceses have been surveyed for their fxC, at a 98.5% response rate How are we to think of these fxC? 28 We know our children are ours But they are not us Its the same with fresh expressions of Church Slide 29 Responses, questions etc ? 29 ? ? ? ? www.fromevidencetoaction.org.uk @ChurchGrowthRD #EvidenceToAction Slide 30 30 Is it an fxC? The 10 parameters used 1.Is corporately Christian; a new and further group, not an existing one that has been improved 2.Planters have tried to engage with non-church people in their context 3.Meets at least once a month 4.Has a name, that gives an identity 5.An intention to be church 6.Is it Anglican? Bishop sees it as part of the family 7.Some form of recognised leadership 8.The majority of members see it as their church 9.Aspiration for the 4 ecclesial / creedal relationships 10.Intention to become 3 self in context Slide 31 An Inclusion / Exclusion example Bristol 9 1 1 20 2 1 6 A- Arch on from fxC or towards an fxC D- Died I- Infrequent [< monthly] N- Not an fxC 2- Duplicate record NY- Not Yet: planned not started X- eXcluded: outside of 1992 2012 period [N]ot an fxC comprised: 1 Rebadged existing service 6 Rebadged small group or social events 7 Outreach projects [to bring people back to existing churches] 4 New events for Christians 1 Chaplaincy 1 Never C of E Included were 33 examples Reasons to exclude 54% 31 Slide 32 32 Work Status of the Leader by Gender Chelmsford as an example Across 10 dioceses the most common combinations are: Male, ordained, stipendiary, full time, leaders Female, lay, voluntary, spare time, leaders Slide 33 Growth Ratios and fxC types 31. How many more added for each one sent ? + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 33 Slide 34 Mortality rates across types of fxC 34 NB On average 91% continue to live