wrap decision and data support systems tom moore | western governors’ association shawn mcclure |...
TRANSCRIPT
WRAP Decision and Data Support Systems
Tom Moore | Western Governors’ Association
Shawn McClure | Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
December 6, 2007
Acknowledgments • Based on WRAP work 1997-2007
– Experience with §309 Haze SIPs submitted 12/03– Need to distill key information for haze planning across wide variety of
air programs in the West
• Thanks to:– WRAP Forums and Workgroups - Too many individuals to list all
• Attribution of Haze – Steve Arnold (CO) & Bob Kotchenruther (EPA-R10)• Implementation & Planning – Tina Anderson (WY) & Mike Edwards (ID)• Modeling – John Vimont (NPS), Mary Uhl (NM), Kevin Briggs (CO)• Monitoring & Data Analysis – Marc Pitchford (NOAA)• 100s involved – feds, tribes, states, industry, enviros
– TSS Development Team – Shawn McClure (CIRA), Joe Adlhoch (Air Resource Specialists), Gerry Mansell (ENVIRON) & others
– EPA funding– In-kind staff work from many agencies & organizations - 1,000s of hours
• Purpose of talk is to report out progress to date and plans for the future
What is the TSS?• http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/
• A decision support system for regional haze planning in the West, expandable to other air quality indicators and/or additional geographic areas
• The TSS provides analytical results from data support systems and display tools to support regional haze planning, to improve visibility for the 118 Class I areas in the WRAP region.
• The TSS is a one-stop-shop for access, visualization, analysis, and retrieval of the technical data and regional analytical results - consolidating information about air quality monitoring, emissions inventories and models, source apportionment results, and gridded air quality/visibility regional modeling simulations.
Why does the TSS exist? What makes it different from from other “web-based data systems”?
• Designed to be a true decision support system addressing regulatory requirements of Regional Haze Rule
• Brings comprehensive and consistent regional data and analysis results to planners for each Class I area
• Presents information required for regional haze planning, as defined by air quality planners
• Integrates multiple datasets from regional analyses (monitoring, emissions, source apportionment, modeling) into displays and formats suitable for air quality planning
• Provides documentation and summary explanations of technical results
• Data are derived from projects and data support systems developed by WRAP members
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WRAP Technical Information Centers
Visibility Information Exchange Web System (VIEWS): VIEWS provides on-line access to monitoring data, research results and special studies related to visibility. http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/Regional Modeling Center: The WRAP’s Regional Modeling Center at the University of California Riverside provides state and tribal agencies with sophisticated modeling of regional haze in the Western United States. http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/Emissions Data Management System: An emission inventory data warehouse for states and tribes. The system provides a consistent, complete and regional approach to emissions data management and tracking. http://www.wrapedms.org/
Causes of Haze Assessment: A detailed analysis of ambient monitoring data for regional haze in the WRAP region. http://www.coha.dri.edu/
Fire Emissions Tracking System (FETS): FETS is a database with a web interface for planned and unplanned fire events. Users can map fire data on-screen, and query the database for downloads in model-ready formats formats. http://www.wrapfets.org/
The Technical Support System integrates results from these data support systems under one web-based umbrella. http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss
Data Support Systems
Decision Support System
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WRAP Data Sources – Monitoring• States to use IMPROVE monitoring program
data to track progress under RHR– Calculate Baseline (2000-04) visibility conditions– Estimate Natural visibility conditions– Project future [2018] visibility conditions (in
conjunction with the AQ model), as first planning period of 60-year implementation
• Focus is on average of the 20% Worst and Best visibility days
• Data are used to calculate visibility impairment expressed as extinction, deciviews, or visual range
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Class I and Other IMPROVE
Monitoring Locations
N on-C lass I A rea
Class I A rea
AG TI1
BAD L1
BAN D 1
BLIS1
BO AP1
BR C A1
BR ID 1
BR LA1
C ABI1
C AN Y1C API1
C H IR 1
C LPE1
C O G O 1 C O R I1
C R LA1C R M O 1
D EVA1D O M E1
FLAT1
FO PE1G AM O 1
G IC L1
G LAC 1
G R BA1
G R C A2
G R SA1
G U M O 1
H EC A1
H ILL1
H O O V1
IKBA1
JAR B1
JO SH 1
KAIS1
KALM 1
LABE1
LAVO 1
LO ST1M ELA1
M EVE1
M O H O 1
M O N T1
M O R A1
M O ZI1
N O AB1
N O C A1
N O C H 1
O LYM 1
O R PI1
PASA1
PEFO 1
PIN N 1
PO R E1
Q U VA1
R AFA1
R ED W 1
R O M O 1
SAC R 1
SAG A1SAG O 1
SAG U 1
SAPE1
SAW E1
SAW T1
SEQ U 1
SIAN 1
SN PA1 SPO K1
STAR 1 SU LA1
SYC A1
TH BA1
TH R O 1TH SI1
TO N T1
TR IN 1
U LBE1
W EM I1
W H IT1
W H PA1
W H PE1
W H R I1
W IC A1
YELL2
YO SE1
ZIO N 1
D EN A1
TR C R 1TU XE1
H ALE1
H AVO 1
SIM E1
WRAP region IMPROVE Monitoring Locations
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Baseline Extinction for 20% Worst Days
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Visibility Information Exchange Web System
10
WRAP Causes of Haze Assessment
11
Emissions/Modeling Domain
12
WRAP Emissions Data Management System
13
WRAP Fire Emissions Tracking System
14
WRAP Regional Modeling Center
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WRAP Data Sources – Apportionment• WRAP’s attribution analysis included tagging SOx and
NOx emissions by source category and region, then following those emissions through the model (CAMx model + PM Source Apportionment Technology, or PSAT)
• PSAT attribution results help WRAP states to:– Estimate what percentage of measured sulfate and nitrate
aerosol mass is due to specific WRAP states– Estimate what contributions to haze might be coming from
outside the WRAP or outside the U.S.– Determine which states to consult with on visibility issues
• PSAT results should be viewed in relative terms among source regions and between emissions scenarios
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CAMx/PSAT Source Region Definitions
-2736 -2412 -2088 -1764 -1440 -1116 -792 -468 -144 180 504 828 1152 1476 1800 2124 2448-2088
-1872
-1656
-1440
-1224
-1008
-792
-576
-360
-144
72
288
504
720
936
1152
1368
1584
1800
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9
12
4
58
13
113
1 7
15
15
16
16
16
18 18
14
17
14
10
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WRAP Data Sources – Weighted Emissions• WRAP’s Weighted Emissions Potential (WEP) analysis
was designed as a screening tool for states, similar to but less rigorous than the PSAT analysis
• WEP does not account for chemistry and removal processes
• WEP relies on an integration of gridded emissions data, meteorological back trajectory residence time data, a one-over-distance factor to approximate deposition, and a normalization of the final results
Emissions Residence Times Weighted Emissions
X =
Where does TSS fit in?• Now (2007-08)
– Source of planning data & results for western haze plans
– Implementation support• Review and approval by EPA
• Annual data update cycle to track progress– Emissions
– Monitoring
– Periodic source apportionment, modeling, and control strategy analyses
• Basis of 60-year RHR program – states set goals, EPA partners with states to verify progress
• Version control to make TSS data use transparent
WRAP Regional Work
WRAP support to members: now + future
Regional Air Quality Analysis
(Technical & Planning/Policy)
Regional Haze Implementation
PM NAAQS (primary & secondary)
Ozone NAAQS (primary & secondary)
Air Program Support (data resources, peer-to-
peer + training)
Acid & MercuryDeposition/Critical Loads
Climate Change, GHG Emissions, & Energy Supply
Future plans for Data Support Systems & TSS
– Future (2009 and onward)• Source of visibility progress/tracking data & analysis results for
western haze plans• Development to support one-atmosphere air quality planning and
regional control strategies– Continuing haze plan implementation– Regional contribution analyses and results for Ozone and PM
NAAQS issues, supporting state and local planning efforts– Analyses of mercury and nitrogen deposition– Continuing annual data update cycle to track progress
» Emissions» Monitoring» Periodic source apportionment, modeling, & control strategy
analyses– Integration of additional data (satellite, control costs, changes in
energy supply, et cetera)– Continuing version control to make TSS data use transparent
WRAP 2008 Workshops
• Members of WRAP Committees, Forums, and Workgroups, as well as members of additional organizations not currently active in the regional haze effort will meet to:– Identify strengths and weaknesses of existing data
and analysis tools;– Determine uses and limitations of those data and
tools;– Develop coordination efforts needed with ongoing
and planned State/Tribal/Federal projects;– Discuss timing, effort, activities, and any needed
changes in future projects by WRAP contractors– Document results for work planning purposes &
next steps
WRAP 2008 Workshops, cont.
• Monitoring Data Analysis Workshop– 2-day workshop, targeted for April will address monitoring
methods, network operations, and data analysis activities for Ozone, PM, haze, mercury, and N deposition data
• Emissions & Modeling Analysis Workshop– 2-day workshop, targeted for July will address emissions and
modeling studies related to Ozone, PM, haze, mercury, and N deposition
• Technical Data Needs for Air Quality Planning Workshop– 2-day workshop, targeted for September will bring forward
technical data and analysis capabilities from the earlier workshops to address 2009-12 air quality control and management planning needs for:
• Haze plan implementation – how/what to do• Defining data, studies, & results needed for air quality planning -
ozone, PM, mercury, N deposition
WRAP 2009-12 Activities
• Track, report, and conduct needed analyses of progress for regional haze;
• Determine regional contributions to Ozone and PM health and welfare standards’ nonattainment issues at various scales;
• Understanding and analyzing the nature and causes of mercury, acid deposition, and critical loads in the West;
• Assess air quality changes from emissions management strategies and programs; and
• In concert with emerging efforts to manage and adapt to climate change, fully integrate data for both energy supply and use as well as greenhouse gas emissions into air quality analyses.
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How Haze Planners Are Using The TSS
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TSS Home Page
Navigation Buttons
Navigation Bar
Hide Navigation
Bar
News and Events
Log-in and User
Account Options
Navigation Buttons
Navigation Bar
Hide Navigation
Bar
News and Events
Log-in and User
Account Options
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TSS Haze Planning Page – Site Selection
Map View OptionsZoom Controls
IMPROVE Monitoring Locations
(WRAP Sites in Yellow)
Class I Areas (green)
Site Selection Options
Description of Selected Site(s)
Map View OptionsZoom Controls
IMPROVE Monitoring Locations
(WRAP Sites in Yellow)
Class I Areas (green)
Site Selection Options
Description of Selected Site(s)
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TSS Haze Planning Page – Tool Selection
Click to review Monitoring data
Click to review Modeling data
Click to review Emissions data and
Source Apportionment results
Class I Area Summary Table to contain key Class I area
results (under development)
Click to review Monitoring data
Click to review Modeling data
Click to review Emissions data and
Source Apportionment results
Class I Area Summary Table to contain key Class I area
results (under development)
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TSS Monitoring Data Review Tools
Tool Control Panel
Note the optionspre-selected include:
1. Worst Days2. Baseline Years
3. Deciview
Data table represents what is displayed on the chart
Chart is created based on Control Panel selections
Click for
Help
Tool Control Panel
Note the optionspre-selected include:
1. Worst Days2. Baseline Years
3. Deciview
Data table represents what is displayed on the chart
Chart is created based on Control Panel selections
Click for
Help
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TSS Emissions Data Mapping Tool
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TSS Apportionment (PSAT) Review Tool
Tool Control Panel
Note the optionsselected include:
1. Baseline and 2018 emissions scenarios
2. All WRAP states3. All source categories
Click for
Help
Regional contributions to modeled sulfate mass at
selected Class I area(WRAP slice separated)
WRAP states’ contributions by source category (Note change
between paired emissions
scenario bars)
Tool Control Panel
Note the optionsselected include:
1. Baseline and 2018 emissions scenarios
2. All WRAP states3. All source categories
Click for
Help
Regional contributions to modeled sulfate mass at
selected Class I area(WRAP slice separated)
WRAP states’ contributions by source category (Note change
between paired emissions
scenario bars)
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TSS Weighted Emissions
(WEP) Review Tool
Click for
Help
Normalized regional contributions to residence time- and distance-weighted
emissions (3 scenarios)
Tool Control Panel
Parameters include major emissions categories
Source Categories/Regions selections affect what is displayed on the bar chart
Click on any map to enlarge in a separate
window
Resultant WEP map can be used as a screening
tool to identify potentially important source regions
Data table optionGridded emissions maps
(3 scenarios)
Gridded back trajectory residence times for baseline (2000-04)
Worst (or Best) days
Click for
Help
Normalized regional contributions to residence time- and distance-weighted
emissions (3 scenarios)
Tool Control Panel
Parameters include major emissions categories
Source Categories/Regions selections affect what is displayed on the bar chart
Click for
Help
Normalized regional contributions to residence time- and distance-weighted
emissions (3 scenarios)
Tool Control Panel
Parameters include major emissions categories
Source Categories/Regions selections affect what is displayed on the bar chart
Click on any map to enlarge in a separate
window
Resultant WEP map can be used as a screening
tool to identify potentially important source regions
Data table optionGridded emissions maps
(3 scenarios)
Gridded back trajectory residence times for baseline (2000-04)
Worst (or Best) days
Click on any map to enlarge in a separate
window
Resultant WEP map can be used as a screening
tool to identify potentially important source regions
Data table optionGridded emissions maps
(3 scenarios)
Gridded back trajectory residence times for baseline (2000-04)
Worst (or Best) days
33
TSS Visibility Projections Tool
The sulfate extinction projection does not change from Baseline
conditions
Note the selection of the 3 dominant species
The nitrate extinction projection shows a
considerable reduction
The organic matter extinction projection
shows modest reduction
Estimated Natural Conditions
The sulfate extinction projection does not change from Baseline
conditions
Note the selection of the 3 dominant species
The nitrate extinction projection shows a
considerable reduction
The organic matter extinction projection
shows modest reduction
The sulfate extinction projection does not change from Baseline
conditions
Note the selection of the 3 dominant species
The nitrate extinction projection shows a
considerable reduction
The organic matter extinction projection
shows modest reduction
Estimated Natural Conditions
Tool Control Panel
Note the addition of:1. RRF Calculation Method
2. Projection Emissions ScenarioClick for
Help
Compare the visibility projection with the
glide slope
Estimated Natural Conditions
Multiple data tables include what is displayed on the chart and RRF values
Baseline Conditions
Tool Control Panel
Note the addition of:1. RRF Calculation Method
2. Projection Emissions ScenarioClick for
Help
Compare the visibility projection with the
glide slope
Estimated Natural Conditions
Multiple data tables include what is displayed on the chart and RRF values
Baseline Conditions
Deciview Glide Path (required by the RHR)
Species Extinction Glide Paths (not defined in RHR guidance; used by states to understand progress expected by species)
Conclusions & Discussion
• Questions• Where do the WRAP systems fit in with efforts by
states/EPA/other federal agencies?– Data support for nature, causes, and control strategy
development
– Decision support for regulatory planning, review, and progress tracking
• Are there obvious functional limitations of the WRAP data support systems or TSS?
• Are there specific “smart” ideas that EPA would like the WRAP to consider for future development?
Contacts
Tom MooreWRAP – Air Quality Program
Manager, WGA
w/ 970.491.8837
Shawn McClureCIRA – Software Engineer, Research
Associate III
w/ 970.491.8455
Joe AdlhochAir Resource Specialists – Vice
President/Project Manager
w/ 970.484.7941
Gerry MansellENVIRON - Senior Manager
w/ 415.899.0727