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WEEK 41/2010 11th October to 17th October 2010
COMMENTS OF THE WEEK
Friday, 22nd October 2010
* Estimated by IFFO.# Plus trimmings.All numbers are preliminary and are subject to revision.
Landings during Week 41
Total fishing catches this week are at 40.9 Th MT.Denmark/Norway caught 15.0 Th MT and Iceland/NorthAtlantic caught 15.1 Th MT, Chilean catches were 10.8Th MT whereas there were no catches in Peru thisweek.
Fishmeal and Fish Oil Production during Week41
Total Fishmeal and Oil Production during week 41 was
8.3 Th MT and 3.8 Th MT respectively.
Fishmeal FOB Peru prices in week 41 remainedunchanged at 1,300 USD/MT, 1,430 Prime USD/MTand 1,450 Super Prime USD/MT with crude fish oil forfeed between 1,150 and 1,200 USD/MT. Omega-3crude fish oil is selling for between 1,200 and 1,600USD/MT.
China Report
FAQ Peruvian fishmeal was quoted at 10,500 RMB/MTlast week, slightly lower than the previous week.
Chilean SD fishmeal was quoted at 11,500 RMB/MTlast week, same as the previous week.
Soymeal at the port of Shanghai last week was about3,680 RMB/MT, making the fishmeal/soymeal price
ratio higher than 2.85.
Fishmeal stocks at major ports in China last week werearound the level of 180 Th MT, with the port off-take atonly 11.6 Th MT.
# Plus trimmings.* Previous year and cumulative values estimated by IFFOAll numbers are preliminary and subject to revision.Denmark/Norway 2010 cumulative has been amended due to updated figures.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
Weekly Catches of IFFO-6 Membersfrom 24th August 2009 to 18th October 2009
ICELAND/NTH ATLANTIC
DENMARK/NORWAY
PERU
CHILE
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
35 36 37 38 39 40 41
Weekly Catches of IFFO-6 Membersfrom 13th September 2010 to 17th October 2010
ICELAND/NTH ATLANTIC
DENMARK/NORWAY
PERU
CHILE
Current
Week 41 Week 40 Year 2010 2009
Chile* 10.8 8.7 22.6 1,753.2 2,365.6Peru 0.0 0.3 1.1 2,899.4 3,791.0
Denmark/Norway# 15.0 9.7 23.9 1,146.0 987.1
Iceland/North
Atlantic#15.1 18.2 9.1 752.2 747.5
TOTAL 40.9 36.9 56.6 6,550.7 7,891.3
CumulativePrevious
The Weekly Fishing DataThere will be no Weekly Report next week due to theIFFO Annual Conference which is taking place in Beijing.Normal service will resume week commencing Monday1st November.
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WEEKLYREPORT 41/10page 2
FAQ Peruvian fishmeal was quoted at 10,500 RMB/MTlast week, slightly lower than the previous week.Chilean SD fishmeal was quoted at 11,500 RMB/MT
last week, same as the previous week.
Soymeal at the port of Shanghai last week was about3,680 RMB/MT, making the fishmeal/soymeal priceratio higher than 2.85.
Fishmeal stocks at major ports in China last week werearound the level of 180 Th MT, with the port off-take atonly 11.6 Th MT.
Market Comments
Fishmeal/MSI Ceres for week 41
Odd lots spot/stock trading continues for differentqualities and prices for shipment October. Futurestrading still remain quiet, although something iscooking. China returned from holidays this week.
The aqua season in China has come to an end in thenorth, and will soon terminate in the south. Heavy rainshave again hit southern China affecting shrimp feedconsumption accordingly. We are all watching how fishmeal demand behaves in the coming weeks andmonths.
Fishoil/Holtermann for week 41
Markets kept quiet last week waiting for the decision onthe Peruvian q4.
PERU - Almost no activity was reported within the oilmarket. Old stocks more or less sold out with somesmall quantities traded at around $1,050 in order toclear the tanks. No quotes yet on oil from theupcoming season.
CHILE - Fishing still concentrated in the north of the
country. No activity reported.
USA - Producers have remained on the sidelines.
COMMENTS OF THE
WEEK
...contd
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WEEKLYREPORT 41/10page 3
SCANDINAVIA - In Iceland 12,405 tonnes of springspawning herring officially reported last week, bringingthe total to 158,284 tonnes against the 165,531 tonnesquota. In Denmark fishing remains sluggish. 5718tonnes of Norway pout reported last week bringing thetotal to 48,525 tonnes against the 81,000 tonnes quota.Also 3,683 tonnes sprat reported, bringing this total to175,756 tonnes (against 254,178 tonnes January/fullOctober last year). As for Norway good catches forhuman consumption, but still practically nothing for oil/meal. 22,682 tonnes of Spring spawning herring werelanded last week (whereof 941 tonnes directly for oil/meal), bringing the total this year to 617,585 tonnes
against the 894,630 tonnes quota. Somesmall quantities traded at around 1,200 but generallyproducers have remained on the sidelines.
The Norwegian part of the capelin quota in the BarentsSea for 2011 was agreed with Russia this week at275,000 tonnes (245,000 tonnes this year,including 5,000 tonnes to research and 2,000 tonnes totrial fishing). The total Barents Sea capelin quota wasagreed at 380,000 tonnes, in line with ICES'recommendations. No concrete conclusions/agreementcame out the mackerel negotiations between EU,Norway, Russia, Faroese Islands and Iceland inLondon last week (12-14 Oct), other than that theparties agreed to meet again in London for three newdays early November.
First quarter 2011 rapeseed oil was quoted at around $1,225 cif Norway last Friday (q4-2010 not quoted).
The above comments are the views of the identified traders/brokers. The viewsexpressed and statements made shall in no way be attributed to IFFO and wewould emphasize that IFFO takes no responsibility for such views andstatements.
Chicago Board of Trade
Soybeans U.S. soybean futures ended lower,erasing an initial push to 14-month highs, as recentexport sales met expectations, the dollar reboundedand South American growing conditions improve. Themarket stumbled; with the singular thing that matteredtoday was the U.S. dollar reversed course. Continuedexport sales to China provided support, but afterrallying 12% during the week, the market appearedoverbought. At the same time, improved soil conditionsin South America of late capped advances in futures.
Soybean meal/oil U.S. soy product futures settledlower, retreating from earlier advances in unison withsoybeans. Traders taking profit taking on the week'sgains overshadowed supportive demand outlooks inboth soymeal and Soyoil.
Palm Oil Crude palm oil futures on Malaysiasderivatives exchange ended higher, with leads fromgains in external markets and the weaker dollarprompting investors to cover short positions.
Exports for the first 15 days of October were within or
slightly better than expectations, preventing a sharp fallin prices. Investors were concerned that slowerpurchases of palm oil by international buyers could leadto a surge in end-month inventory levels, which wouldweigh on CPO prices.
In other news, Malaysia in its annual economic reportforecast that CPO production may rise 3.4% to 18.4million tons next year on improving yields and anincrease in mature palm areas in the major producingregions of Sabah and Sarawak.
Sources: CME Group & Palm Oil HQ
COMMENTS OF THE
WEEK
...contd
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WEEKLYREPORT 41/10page 4
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
35 36 37 38 39 40 41
PAITA
CHICAMA
CHIMBOTE
CENTRO
PISCO
SUR
Peruvian Weekly Fishing 2010
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
PAITA
CHICAMA
CHIMBOTE
CENTRO
PISCO
SUR
Peruvian Weekly Fishing 2009
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
35 36 37 38 39 40 41
Chile Weekly Fishing (mt)
2010
2009
Avge 5Yrs
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35 36 37 38 39 40 41
Denmark/NorwayWeekly Fishing (mt)
2010
2009
Avge 5Yrs
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
35 36 37 38 39 40 41
Iceland/North AtlanticWeekly Fishing (mt)
2010
2009
Avge 5Yrs
Graphical Analysis of Recent Weekly Landings by Groups
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WEEKLYREPORT 41/10page 5
2,687
447,313
Source: IFFO
0 Paita
0 Chicama
0 Chimbote
0 Centro
0 Pisco
0 Sur
0 Total
Peru Landings by Port (MT)Week 41 2010
Peruvian Quota Meter: South Region (in MT)
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Soybean Complex Market
Days used until Days remaining until
17/10/2010 31/12/2010
2,687 447,313 78 75
0.6% 99.4% 51.0% 49.0%
Total fishing (mt) Fishing left (mt)
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
8/9 14/9 20/9 24/9 30/9 6/10 12/10 18/10
OilMeal
Chicago Soyameal and SoyaoilSpetember 1st 2010 to October 12th 2010
Soyameal (Oct)
Soyameal (Dec)
Soya oil (Oct)
Soya oil (Dec)
980
1000
1020
1040
1060
1080
1100
1120
1140
1160
1180
1200
8/9 14/9 20/9 24/9 30/9 6/10 12/10 18/10
Chicago Soyabeans (in US cents/bushel)September 1st to October 12th 2010
Soybeans (Nov)
Soybeans (Jan)
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WEEKLYREPORT 41/10page 6
We apologise for the periodical changes we make to the figures reported in the Fishing, Fish Meal and Fish Oil tablesand especially to the cumulative values. This is due to the restructuring of the way we collect and report the informationand the new figures (especially the past ones) are not being sent to us in one go.
Please accept our apologies for any inconvenience this might cause you, we hope to be able to provide you with thefinal and definite figures as soon as possible.
Previous year and cumulative values estimated by IFFODenmark/Norway 2010 cumulative has been amended due to updated figures.
Current
Week 41 Week 40 Year 2010 2009
Chile* 2.9 2.5 5.2 454.3 506.5
Peru 0.0 0.1 0.2 668.2 865.3
Denmark/Norway 3.2 2.0 5.0 238.2 205.9 Iceland/North
Atlantic2.2 2.8 1.4 126.3 143.4
TOTAL 8.3 7.3 11.9 1,487.0 1,721.1
The Weekly Fishmeal Production
CumulativePrevious
Current
W eek 41 W eek 40 Year 2010 2009
Chile* 1.0 0.9 0.1 76.3 87.7
Peru 0.0 0.0 0.0 141.3 185.0
Denmark/Norway 1.7 1.1 2.4 82.7 66.6 Iceland/North
Atlantic1.2 1.3 0.8 58.8 57.4
TOTAL 3.8 3.2 3.4 359.1 396.6
CumulativeThe Weekly Fish Oil Production
Previous
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WEEKLYREPORT 41/10page 7
Week 41 Week 40
Euros/100 Kg Fishmeal (F.O.T. Bulk) Oct/Apr 120.00 122.00
Soyameal (F.O.T ) Oct 30.60 28.60Soyameal (F.O.T ) Nov/Apr 30.80 27.40
Ratio 3.92 4.27
2. Fishmeal international cost and freight (C + F) North - European Ports in USD/MT
Fishmeal (Oct/Dec) Chile 66% $1,550 ($0)
Fishmeal (Oct/Dec) Peru 66% $1,450 ($0)
Fishmeal (Oct/Dec) Denmark 72% $1,850 ($0)
Fishmeal (Oct/Dec) Iceland 70% $1,785 ($0)
3. FOB Prices in US$/FAQ Prime
SuperPrime
Crude Fish Oilfor Feed
Omega-3 CrudeFish OilFishmeal FOB Peru (weekly average
- based on comments received froma limited selection of traders andbrokers)*Small quantities of fishmeal traded
$1,300($0)
$1,430($0)
$1,450($0)
$1,200$1,600(-$60)
4. Soyameal Pellets in US$/MT FOB
FOB Brazil $364 (-$2)FOB Argentina $361 (-$2)
5. Vegetable Oils - Reference Quotations - Trade Sources (US$/MT)
CIF Rotterdam Dec/Jan Feb/Apr May/Jul
Soyaoil $1,156 (+$24) $1,163 (+$25) $1,167 (+$11)
Nov/Jan Feb/Apr May/Jul
Rapeoil $1,187 (+$58) $1,166 (+$30) $1,173 (+$30)
Oct Nov Jan/Mar
Palmoil $1,000 (+$8) $991(+$7) $981 (-$1)
SoyabeanGrain
(UScts/bu)
SoyabeanOil
(UScts/lb)
SoyabeanMeal
(US$/MT)6. CHICAGO CBOTSoyabean Complex Market(closing values, near-by contract)
Wednesday 13/10 1176.50 47.22 325.20
Thursday 14/10 1188.50 47.35 325.50Friday 15/10 1185.00 47.77 328.20
Monday 18/10 1184.00 47.66 328.30Tuesday 19/10 1180.00 47.10 328.20
$1,150 - $1,200(+$50 - $150)
I I I - MARK ET DATA
Currencies are based on theASK prices on the Interbankmarket.
CurrenciesNew-York
Market
YEN/USD 81.23
EUR/USD 1.392
DKR/USD 5.356
NKR/USD 5.843PEN/USD 2.825
CLP/USD 488.5
Exch.rate
Fish PoolSalmon price Index
Current*week
Previous*week
prev.year
Headless Whiteshrimp P.vannamei
US$/lb
Asian Tiger shrimpP.monodon
US$/lb
Salmon price index (FPI) Euro /kg 4.69 4.69 3.20 31-35 Class 16-20 Class
(Fish Pool data) Nok /kg 38.04 38.04 26.78 $4.20 ($0) $6.60 (-$20)
Source: Fishpool.eu *Numbers are preliminary and are subject to revision. Source: Shrimpnews.com FOB: New York
1. Northern European ports weekly prices