wpupo - pablo de olavide universityupo.es/serv/bib/wps/econ1001.pdf · 2019. 7. 5. · title:...

Working papers series

Department of Economics

WP ECON 10.01

Growth, fluctuations and technology in the

U.S. post-war economy

Jesús Rodríguez López (U. Pablo Olavide)

JEL Classification numbers: O3; O4. Keywords: Productivity growth; Investment-specific technological change; Neutral technological change.

http://www.upo.es/econ

Growth, fluctuations and technology in the U.S. post-war economy

January 16th, 2010

Jesús Rodríguez López Departamento de Economía Universidad Pablo de Olavide Carretera de Utrera km. 1 41013, Sevilla (Spain) e-mail: [email protected]

Abstract. This paper explores several issues concerning how technology affects growth and fluctuations during several U.S. postwar series. The nature of technology is divided into neutral progress and investment-specific progress. Accounting for several changes in the first and second order moments of these series (the slowdown of productivity in 1974, the moderation of 1984 and the resurgence in productivity after 1994), I find that the contribution of investment-specific progress to growth has increased over time. I also find that neutral progress is crucial in explaining the cyclical component of output (before and after 1984), contrary to results found in related literature. However, the shocks to investment-specific progress have played an increasing role in output and other macroeconomic variables. Finally, I conclude that moderation in the macroeconomic series can be associated with technology. In sum, the quality of technological processes affecting long run growth and fluctuations has changed over the past decades. JEL classification: O3; O4. Keywords: Productivity growth; Investment-specific technological change; Neutral technological change.

Acknowledgments: For his very useful comments, critiques and suggestions, I especially thank Víctor Ríos Rull. I also acknowledge Raúl Santaeulalia for comments and for helping to guide me in the management of the data. This paper received valuable comments at the Workshop on Dynamic Macroeconomics in Punta Umbría, September 2009. The suggestions from F. Canova, C. Michelacci and J. L. Torres are gratefully acknowledged. Financial support from the Junta de Andalucía P07-SEJ-02479 and from the Ministerio de Educación SEJ2006-04803/ECON is acknowledged.


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wpupo - pablo de olavide universityupo.es/serv/bib/wps/econ1001.pdf · 2019. 7. 5. · title:...

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