WP2 VTT RESULTS

OVERVIEW AND SUMMARY

Researchers seminar 11.12.2017Hannele Holttinen, Esa Pursiheimo, Jussi

Ikäheimo, Juha Forsström, Juha Kiviluoma VTT

Research questions from the project plan

• Cost competitiveness of SNG, competitors, uncertainties?

• How PtG helps integration of wind/solar?• How does energy system work, hourly

basis, impact on stability?

CONTENTS

- IMPROVING SIMULATIONTOOLS

- GLOBAL RENEWABLEFUTURE (TIMES)

- MORE DETAIL FOR NORDIC COUNTRIES(BALMOREL/WILMAR)

-ROBUST DECISIONMAKING

WP2 model tool development• TIMES-VTT

– add PtX processes, constrain fossils in 2050 • Balmorel and WILMAR

– Added PtX processes, heat areas /detail, hourlyresolution and water value model

– Add stability impact tool (post processing of WILMAR hourly dispatches)

• DHUC; CHP-integrated PtG at local level (integrationwith Wilmar via prices)

• New approach: Robust decision making

WILMAR Heat sector integration• More district heating (DH)

networks in WILMAR, for larger cities

• Previously Industrial and DH • Coupling between heat and

PtX• Simulation of a single

network in DHUCIkäheimo J. 2017. Power-to-gas plants in a future Nordic District Heating System, Energy Procedia, 135, pp. 172-182; http://bit.ly/2zOKrGg

Frequency response

0

20 000

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ge

ne

rati

on

MW 1 natural gas

2 coal

3 wood

4 water

5 sun

6 wind

7 nuclear

Power systemmodel

(Simulink)

Unitcommitment

and economicdispatch

(Wilmar JMM)

Frequencynadir

Frequencyrate of change

System set-up

Dimensioningincident

Capacityexpansionsimulation

Reserverequireme

nt Plant schedulingand reservesallocation

FCR-D 1500 MW1400 MW

Market price examples to other WPs: how much low prices in markets for PtX

• Cost optimal share and utilization of PtG at different cost levels of wind and solar

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50

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250

Mar

ket p

rice

of e

lect

ricity

€/M

Wh

VG1VG2VG3

Example. Too simplified hydro power impactsthe prices

TIMES-VTT integration to a full yearsimulation with Balmorel/WILMAR

• Transport sector fuel production• Sector electricity demand• Number of electric vehicles• Biomass potentials• Ammonia production

TIMES-VTT

Detailedsimulation

Balmorel Wilmar JMMTIMES-VTT

Capacity expansionPower and heat

For one future year

Operational schedulingin multinational level

Power and heatFor one year 8760 hours

CapacitiesSNG demand

Energy system modelPathway 2020…2050

More visibility of storages thanTIMES

More use of gas thanBalmorel 3 weeks

PATH TOWARDS 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY -ANALYSIS ON SOLARINTENSIVE GLOBALENERGY SYSTEM

Esa Pursiheimo (VTT)

Getting the P2G use to the model

• Syngas produced by biogasification in Nordic countries– LOBIO scenarios needed

• Syngas demand mainly in transport and industrial sectors– 100% renewables /solar &wind based system

to see P2G use

Path towards 100% RESanalysis on solar intensive global energy system

• Expansion from Nordic to global– Path towards 100 % renewable energy

future and feasibility of power-to-gas technology in Nordic Countries, IET Renewable Power Generation

– Global manuscript in review process

Scenario definitionsRES

Scenario targets global100% renewable share of primary energy supply in year 2050Non-renewable energysources excluded from energysystem in 2050 (use of existingnuclear capacity allowed)

HI-ELC

Share of electric vehiclesset high in each modelregionMinimum share of electricvehicles from vehicle stock(all vehicle types) set to 80% in each region.

LO-BIO

Potential of forest biomassand field biomassconstrained to significantlylower levelScenario is based on biomassutilisation levels of BASE scenario

HI-ELC+LO-BIO = ALL

Biomass potentialreduction + high share of electric vehiclesCombination of LO-BIO and HI-ELC

• Pursiheimo E., Holttinen H., Koljonen T., 2017. Path towards 100% renewable energy future and feasibility of power-to-gas technology in Nordic countries, IET Renewable Power Generation 11 (13), pp. 1695-1706. http://bit.ly/2BlSdUo

Solar power and P2X• Solar and wind power

capacities explode 2030-2050– Mostly centralised PV plants

• Large investments in P2X and electricity storages are required in solar intensive regions

Share of electricity and synthetic fuels increase

• Pursiheimo E., Holttinen H., Koljonen T., 2018 Global article submitted to Applied energy

Share of electricity and synthetic fuels increase

Conclusions• Global renewable energy system by year 2050 is a feasible target

– Extensive electrification of energy system, especially due to production of synthetic fuels by electrolysis and power-to-gas

– Major changes in energy system required– Renewable scenarios 11% higher in costs in 2050

• Large volume utilisation of solar and wind power– 48000 GW of solar equals 400km x 400km area (300 W/m2)– 5000 GW of wind equals 1.67 million turbines (3 MW turbine)

• Effect of biomass potential is more significant than effect of electric cars

• Robust time slice structure of TIMES-VTT model poses issues concerning variable nature of renewable power generation, also issue of energy-to-power ratio of electricity storages

POWER-TO-X IN THE FUTURE 100 % RENEWABLE NORTH EUROPEAN SYSTEM

Jussi Ikäheimo, Juha Kiviluoma (VTT)

Balmorel capacity expansionmodel results, 3 example weeks

• P2G costs: 1000 €/kW• Efficiency at 60 %, plus

25 % heat• Gas value 43 €/MWh

or 62 €/MWh, No O2 value

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24.8 28.3 31.8 35.4 38.9

MH3

pro

duce

d (T

Wh)

Base 62

Base 43

Comp. 62

Comp. 43Comp. - with competition fromother flexibilitysources

€/M

Wh

for

sellin

gSN

G

Average PV/wind cost (€/MWh)

SNG

Cost reduction trends impact on buildingwind or solar dominated system

Using BalmorelCase Nordic: wind will be usedeven at very lowPV prices

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10 %

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20406080100

Shar

e of

win

d po

wer

and

PV

Production cost of PV (€/MWh)

PV / Bat 50 Wind / Bat 50PV / Bat 100 Wind / Bat 100PV / Bat 150 Wind / Bat 150PV / Bat 200 Wind / Bat 200PV / Bat 300 Wind / Bat 300

Kiviluoma, J. Azevedo, M. Rinne, E. Helistö, N. Costoptimal share of wind power, PV and batteries. 14th Wind Integraton Workshop WIW2015, 20 - 22 Oct 2015, Brussels.

Results of first Nordic simulations• Large scale implementation of P2G for energy arbitrage

seems not to be realistic by 2030 in the Nordic system– Even when shares of wind/PV higher than anticipated (<60 %)– Cost competitive alternatives sources of flexibility– P2G utilization (full load hours) not enough for cost efficient

deployment in large scale

• PtG/ PtX is hardly used as seasonal storage BUT mainly as a sector bridging technology (transport sector needs fuels)

• Ikäheimo J., Kiviluoma J., 2016. Synthetic Natural Gas Production and Utilization in the North European Power System in 2050, Solar Integration Workshop, November 15-17, Vienna; http://bit.ly/2BmFtNo

• Ikäheimo J., Kiviluoma J., 2015. Operating P2G in a power system with large amounts of PV, wind power and hydro power, Solarzeitalter, 3/2015, http://bit.ly/2BvqK3t

• Ikäheimo J., Kiviluoma J., 2015. Operating P2G in a power system with large amounts of PV, wind power and hydro power, 9th International Renewable Energy Storage Conference (IRES 2015), Düsseldorf, http://bit.ly/2AiQCPO

Variation of investment costs

PV

battery

150 300€/kWh

Wind - onshore

500 €/kW

Wind - offshore

20001000 2500

PtG results (Baltic Sea 2050)

• Ikäheimo J., Kiviluoma J., Azevedo M., 2016. The role of P2G in a power system with large amounts of PV, wind power and hydro power, 10th International Renewable Energy Storage Conference (IRES 2016), Düsseldorf, March 15–17; http://bit.ly/2AiHNW6

• Ikäheimo J., Kiviluoma J., 2016. Synthetic Natural Gas Production and Utilization in the North European Power System in 2050, Solar Integration Workshop, November 15-17, Vienna; http://bit.ly/2BmFtNo

SNG production for energy sector Marginal cost of SNG

PtA results

• Synthetic NH3 cost in 2050 remains on comparablelevel compared to recent market prices

• Germany exploits NH3 as peak power fuel

PtA production Marginal cost

Conclusions• Power to gas seems to depend on the transport sector fuel needs

– expensive flexibility alternative for the power sector in the Nordic countries whichhave abundant reservoir hydro and potential flexibility in the district heating.

– Baltic Sea region: especially Germany as consumer of SNG• Power to ammonia is a feasible concept at ammonia prices which are

somewhat higher than recent prices– Product is sent to fertilizer industry– High cost of ammonia-fired plants prevented the use of ammonia as energy

storage – only when SNG was not available– Biomass-CHP and SNG/ammonia condensing plants are both used to cover

peak residual load; biomass availability is a constraint– application of high-temperature electrolysis with heat integration may increase

PtA efficiency considerably• Production of large amounts of synthetic drop-in liquid fuels for transport

sector is possible but inefficient and the cost of fuel is quite high– Possibility for capital cost reduction (Capex0 = 2290 €/kWfuel)?

Ikäheimo J., Kiviluoma J., manuscripts for 2 journal articles;

Frequency response in high renewablesystems

Jussi Ikäheimo, Juha Kiviluoma

• Increased reserve allocation 13001500 MW

• Considerable drop in system kinetic energy minimum.

• Single fault (1400 MW) leads to violation of the lowest frequency bound (49.0Hz) 7 hours of the year

• Wind and solar power play only a small role in FCR-D – more from electrolysis

• When synthetic wind inertia was included, no violation of the allowed frequency bound took place

Ikäheimo J., Kiviluoma J. On Frequency Stability in the Future Renewable Nordic Power System with Gas Sector Integration, Solar Integration Workshop, October 24–25, 2017, Berlin http://bit.ly/2AJd1su

Robust Decision Making, RDMJuha Forsström.

• Interesting new approach developed to tackle numerous uncertainties (demand, technology, price of electricity, price and availability of (bio)fuels)

• Case study Fortum District heating in Espoo, supporting choosing amongvarious options in district heatproduction in Espoo

• Result – Non-boiler options favored if feasible – if not, heat-only boilers seem more competitive than CHP

Forsström, J. Björnberg, A.VTT reports

Research questions from the project plan

• Cost competitiveness of SNG, competitors, uncertainties?• How PtG helps integration of wind/solar?• How does energy system work, hourly basis, impact on

stability?

• Very high wind/PV scenarios needed for PtX usage.

• More seen as energy sector bridge thanseasonal storage.

• Wind/PV and electrolysers add to freqstability.

Caveats in simulating close to 100% renewable systems

• Simulations show that hourly electricity and heat balances work– 5..15 min time resolution will show differences in dispatch. – Wind/solar short term forecast errors taken into account in some case

studies (WILMAR simulations)• Frequency stability of hydro dominated system checked with

increased reserve allocation– in a copperplate model – small signal stability can remain an issue.

• Modelling framework uncertainties remain– Capturing all operational constraints – and flexibilities. Investment model

considers e.g. reserves in a simplified manner. • Operation of >80% wind/solar hours not know yet

– Frequency and voltage stability: ongoing research. Wind and PV, as well as electrolyzers, are faster to control than steam turbines.

THANK YOU