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Seasonal shifts inSeasonal shifts in

hydroclimatology over thehydroclimatology over the

Western United StatesWestern United StatesRegonda, Rahagopalan, Clark, and PitlickRegonda, Rahagopalan, Clark, and Pitlick

2005. Journal of Climate, 18:3722005. Journal of Climate, 18:372--384384

Presented by ScienceWomanPresented by ScienceWoman


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OutlineOutline

IntroductionIntroduction

MethodsMethods

ResultsResults ConclusionsConclusions


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IntroductionIntroduction

A) BackgroundA) Background Increased land and ocean temperatures particularly overIncreased land and ocean temperatures particularly over

midlatitude regionsmidlatitude regions 0.5C in last 50 years (0.1C/decade)0.5C in last 50 years (0.1C/decade)

Increased frequency of extreme weather events (floods,Increased frequency of extreme weather events (floods,droughts, etc.)droughts, etc.)

Shifts in seasonal cyclesShifts in seasonal cycles early occurrence of springearly occurrence of spring

Early blossom of plantsEarly blossom of plants

lilaclilac

Early spring flowsEarly spring flows Increased vegetation coverIncreased vegetation cover

And extended growing periodAnd extended growing period

B) Global trends and western U.S. hydroclimatologyB) Global trends and western U.S. hydroclimatology


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Globel and wetern hydoclimatology*Globel and wetern hydoclimatology*

Recently a group of reseraecahres evaluatied futreu climateRecently a group of reseraecahres evaluatied futreu climatechange impacts on western US water resources management aschange impacts on western US water resources management asa part of the Accelerated Climate Prediction Invitivae (ACPI).a part of the Accelerated Climate Prediction Invitivae (ACPI).The climate change scenarios of projected business as usualThe climate change scenarios of projected business as usual

(BAU) greenhouse gas emmisssions were simulated using the(BAU) greenhouse gas emmisssions were simulated using theNational Center of Atmosphere Research (NCAR)/DepartmetnNational Center of Atmosphere Research (NCAR)/Departmetnof Energy (DOE) parallel climate model (PCM). The BAUof Energy (DOE) parallel climate model (PCM). The BAUscenarios exhibited an average warming of about 1scenarios exhibited an average warming of about 1--2C and2C andboth decrease and increase in precipitation across the westernboth decrease and increase in precipitation across the westernUnited States. Downscaling these scenarios to the ColoradoUnited States. Downscaling these scenarios to the Colorado

river basin, Christensen et al. (2004) find a signficiant decreaseriver basin, Christensen et al. (2004) find a signficiant decreasein april SWE (in april SWE (--30%), annual runoff (30%), annual runoff (--17%), total basin storage17%), total basin storage((--40%), and reservori leveells (40%), and reservori leveells (--33%) by the end of the 2133%) by the end of the 21stst

century.century.

*of course the t os are mine!


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methods streamflow

hcdn database various criteria = 89 stations

swe

nrcs april 1 469, 501, 239

precipitation and temperature nws coop

Julian day warm spell regression anal.

streamflow, swe, precipitation, temperature


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Figure 2 and 3

Figure 4

Figure 5


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Tornado AlleyTornado Alley


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MoreM

oreResultsResultsFigure 6Figure 6


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More ResultsMore Results

Figure 7Figure 7 Scatterplots showingrelationships betweenweather station elevation andtrends in (a) warm day spells,(b) winter precipitation), winter tempeature, (d) a mapillustrating the spatialdistribution of coop stationsbelow 800 m (squares),between 800 and 2500 m(open circles), and above

2500 (filled circles). Notethat there are very fewCOOP stations at highelevations.


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More ResultsMore Results


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Even more resultsEven more results


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Conclusions

Advancement in the timing of spring temperature spellsover the western United States has resulted in the earlieroccurrence of peak snowmelt flows in many mountain

basins. Changes in the timing of snowmelt are most evident in

basins in the Pacific Northwest, which fall below 2500-melevation.

Changes in the timing of snowmelt in high-elevationbasins in the interior west are, for the most part, notstatistically significant.

Increases in March and April streamflows and decreasesin May and June streamflows at a number of sitessuggest a broad shift in spring peak flow timing.


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Conclusions (page 2)

Snowcourse measurements show a decreasing

trend in the snow water equivalent (SWE) in

April and May, which is also indicative ofreduced snow and early melt.

Winter precipitation seems to be generally

increasing, but there is no clear increase in

spring streamflows.

This result suggests that in recent decades more ofthe precipitation is coming in the form of rain rather

than snow.


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ConclusionsConclusions


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AcknowledgeAcknowledge

mentsments I want to thank my dogI want to thank my dogfor not chewing up morefor not chewing up morethan one copy of mythan one copy of mypaper.paper.

I want to thank my dear,I want to thank my dear,sweet wonderful (andsweet wonderful (andhot!) husband for makinghot!) husband for makingme coffee while I stayedme coffee while I stayed

up all nite working on thisup all nite working on this*%$#* assignment.*%$#* assignment.


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Thanks forThanks for

listening!!!!!!!!!!listening!!!!!!!!!!

Questions?Questions?

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