world study building controls spain - lonmark international · •some manufacturers bringing...
TRANSCRIPT
World Market for Intelligent
Environmental Building
Controls and Contrasts with
North America
Jeremy Towler
At LonMark Training
Session
31st January 2011
2Excellence in Market Intelligence
BSRIA Worldwide
Germany
France
SpainChina
Italy Serbia
Russia
North
America
Poland
Czech Republic
Japan
UK
Research partnersOfficesHead Quarters
Established as the global source for knowledge for the building industry, serving the whole
building environment chain from supplier to client
More than 50 years of experience in independent , authoritative technical research, product
testing, consultancy and market intelligence.
Some 160 people with depth of expertise across all industry sectors and unique blend of
technical and marketing capability and understanding
Helping clients understand and forecast market sizes, market opportunities and aid strategic
decision making
3Excellence in Market Intelligence
North American Research
BSRIA Proplan have conducted regular
Intelligent Buildings market research for over
a quarter of a century and in North America
for over a decade
Conducted CABA Market Sizing North
America 2009/10
– Sponsored by 26 leading organisations
– Many more submitted data.
– Encompassed: Environmental Controls -
Lighting Controls - Security Systems - Fire
Detection Systems - IT Convergence
Available to purchase
4Excellence in Market Intelligence
Political
and legal
• Kyoto Protocol – establishes legally binding commitment for reduction of 4 greenhouse
gases - driving socio-political agendas, environmental legislation and commits rich
countries to cut emissions
• Dec.„09 Copenhagen meeting of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) ended in chaos after countries failed to agree a way forward.
• >190 countries met Nov.‟10 in Cancun under UNFCCC. Agreement not legal treaty, but
commits all countries to cut emissions for the first time under the UN. Targets extend
beyond 2012. Agreed to set up a $100bn/year „Green Climate Fund‟ from 2020 to help
poor countries adapt to climate change.
• Scientists suggest these pledges will get world 60% towards emissions cuts that are
hoped will keep global temperatures from rising >2C this century.
• Environmental protection made a general state goal in constitutions of some countries
• EPBD at different stages of implementation in national building regulations – having a
very measurable impact on IBC(e) sales
• Increasing penetration in Europe of Energy Performance Certificates (EPC) and
Display Energy Certificate (DEC)
• Feb.‟09, ARRA, economic stimulus package signed into law. Plan includes $3.4 billion
investment in the smart energy grid
World Overview
5Excellence in Market Intelligence
The World IBC(e)* Market Performance
2007 - 2011
* Intelligent Building Controls - EnvironmentalUnit: USD million
Exchange rate: 2008 1€ = 1.47$ , 2009 = 1.39463$
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total IBC(e) Business
Total Installed System
Product
Value-Add
Service
CAGR 07-09 -0.4%
CAGR 07-09 -0.1%
CAGR 07-09 -1.9%
CAGR 07-09 0.6%
CAGR 07-09 0.7%
CAGR 09-11 -0.6%
CAGR 09-11 -1.7%
CAGR 09-11 -1.4%
CAGR 09-11 -2.2%
CAGR 09-11 2.8%
• Robust growth to 2008 gave
way to market shrinkage
due to world economic
crisis in all but service and
maintenance sector
• 2010 should see these
markets bottom-out and
turn the corner towards
recovery in 2011
• Service and maintenance
market continues to grow
throughout 2010 and 2011
6Excellence in Market Intelligence
Econo-
mics and
energy
price
• Recession, impacting most countries in „08, continued thru „09, particularly in West
• A few economies continued to grow in 2009, including China, India, Australia
• Electricity prices vary, even in single region or power-district; fluctuating but momentum
gathering globally towards greener, more sustainable, CO2-reduced solutions
• Confidence in financial markets gradually recovering
Social
• End user awareness of need for energy conservation continues to rise
• End users demanding more information about buildings to reduce energy cost; can help
pave the way for smart grid and demand response. Increasing willingness to invest in
BMS and energy management solutions
• Environmental assessment methods & building rating systems; BREEAM, LEED,
Energy Star programme, GreenGlobes, having a positive impact on IBC(e)* sales
Techn-
ology
• Enhanced legislation/building standards continues to promote technological innovation
• Numerous countries promoting the development of smart grid technologies. US DOE
distributing the smart grid technology development grants of ARRA.
• Open protocols established a major share yet still too many proprietary protocols
• Integrating diverse systems now frequent + growing demand to converge building
technical infrastructure with Ethernet infrastructure of the business IT systems
World Overview
* IBC(e) - Intelligent Building Controls - environmental
7Excellence in Market Intelligence
Constr-
uction
• 2009 saw continued non-residential construction decline in
most countries
• Forecasts for 2010 in Western Europe and North America are
generally as depressed as 2009 or worse...
• Forecasts for 2011 generally for a slowing of the decline and
/or return to growth, albeit generally modest in Western
Europe and North America
• Eastern European and Russia forecasts more optimistic than
Western Europe
• Emerging markets such as Brazil, China, India all forecasting
strong growth
• Japan and Australia forecasting stable growth at around 5%
• Refurbishment and Renovation have proven a little more
robust than new construction throughout the economic crisis,
even when in decline
• Maintenance market has proved most recession-proof, even
growing in numerous countries at a time when products
markets and new installed systems markets declined
World Overview
8Excellence in Market Intelligence
North America
27%
BRIC7%
Europe43%
Middle East8%
Rest15%
Geographic breakdown of the World Building
Controls Product Market
• Europe has biggest
product and
installed systems
market
• America has
biggest service and
maintenance
market
9Excellence in Market Intelligence
Comments
• Controllers remain the largest group of the products
• Sensors have gained share
• “Other” products (includes software), have gained 4 percentage points share
Product
trends
• Open protocols continue to gain share; BacNet and LonWorks the most popular
• Some manufacturers bringing multi-protocol controllers to the market place
• Web-based solutions now very common - penetration expected to continue
• Slow, growing trend towards wireless communications, predominantly in individual
room control
World Products Market by Product TypeMarket Size 2009
Controllers48%
Valves11%
Actuators15%
Sensors10%
Others16%
10Excellence in Market Intelligence
Controls
market
drivers
• Environmental issues, energy regulation, energy cost, energy efficiency, retrofit and
energy management projects
• Obligatory energy performance building directives, legislation and certification programs
for design, construction and operation of high performing and green buildings
• Government economic stimulus funding refurbishment and maintenance of existing
public sector buildings
• Increasing momentum of smart grid and demand side management initiatives
• Increased sophistication of specifications for more measurement and metering of
building services and systems including increasing demand for room automation
• Re-commissioning / refurbishment of existing systems to meet new standards
Controls
market
threats
• Possibility that economies fail to recover as anticipated, leading to slower recovery of
construction output for 2010/11 from either public and/or private sector
• Competitors from the IT and software world (Cisco, IBM, Tridium etc.) establishing
positions in the intelligent buildings business; can be both a threat or a partnership
opportunity for the traditional building controls companies
• Limited availability of skilled and qualified industry experts persists
• Low cost imported control devices
Industry Trends and Drivers
11Excellence in Market Intelligence
Trend in
product
market
• Sharp decline in product sales as new construction and major refurbishment
projects have been cancelled or put on hold during world economic recession
Trend in
valued added
market
• More advanced solutions having a bigger influence on value add; requiring a
greater amount of design/engineering and commissioning
• Integration of systems becoming more popular - can result in increased value
add, however benefits are realised in form of savings down the line
• Increased share of smaller scale contracts
• Reduced contract size due to OEM packaged supply
Trend in
service market
• Service business most robust of all during the recession, followed by retrofit sales
• Well established suppliers have taken advantage of their installed base to grow
their service business
Market Trends
Product - Value-added - Service
12Excellence in Market Intelligence
Building Controls Product Trends
Sensors
• Better automatic control requires more sensors
• Demand for smart sensors
• Demand in CO2 sensors
• Demand for all-in-one sensors
Controllers
• Nearly half are web-enabled - mainly automation level controllers
• End-user demand for standard protocol controllers
• Multi-protocol controllers
Wireless
• Still a very small market, mainly for sensors
• Industry sees potential in room solutions
• Standards including: Zigbee, 805.12.4, 6LoWPAN, EnOcean
• Key issues: energy demand, data transmission capacity
13Excellence in Market Intelligence
Smart Grid
Source: NIST Framework and
Roadmap for Smart Grid
Interoperability Standards Release 1.0
(Draft), September 2009.
An advanced power grid
for the 21st century ...
adding and integrating many
varieties of digital computing
and communication
technologies and services
with the power-delivery
infrastructure.
Bi-directional flows of energy
and two-way communication
and control capabilities will
enable an array of new
functionalities and
applications that go well
beyond “smart” meters for
homes and business Six Chief Characteristics:
1. Enables informed participation by all parties
2. Accommodates all generation and storage options
3. Enables new products, services, and markets
4. Provides the power quality for the range of needs
5. Optimizes asset utilization and operating efficiency; and
6. Operates resiliently to disturbance, attacks, and natural disasters
14Excellence in Market Intelligence
The changing market landscape
New Range of Services
• Energy monitoring /
management
• Demand Response
• Time-of-use pricing
• Micro-generation / Storage
• Electric vehicle integration
(vehicle to grid power)
• Etc. Etc...
Generation Transmission SubstationsDistribution Consumption
• New hardware, Communications
and Networks
• Smart Metering / Automated
Metering Infrastructure
• Grid Optimisation
• Etc. Etc...
Services
Renewables
Many new suppliers will
enter this market...
15Excellence in Market Intelligence
Definition of Smart Home / Home
Automation
• Automation of homes, housework, household activity.
• Can include centralized control and integration of:
• lighting, HVAC, appliances, and other systems
• to provide improved convenience, comfort, energy
efficiency and security
• Increased quality of life for elderly and disabled
• May connect devices through a personal computer
network - may allow remote internet access
• Best fitted to a new home during construction
• Can use wireless in existing homes
• These can communicate with a central controller
through the existing power wiring, radio, or infrared
signals
• Network sockets may be installed in every room like
AC power receptacles
Environmental
control
Smart
appliances
Consumer
electronics
Lighting
control
Building
component
control
Security
system
Safety
alarm
Individual System Control
Level
Home Energy
Management
Smart Home
17Excellence in Market Intelligence
Forthcoming BSRIA Smart home
market study - North America
• Contraction in „08 and ‟09 due to economy and loss of new home construction.
• Three out of every four dealers anticipate good revenue and profit growth in 2011
• Moderate volume increase but lower costs - enable higher sales to provide modest market growth
• By 2012 many more smart appliances available to connect to home network
• Widespread deployment of smart meters and energy data
• Will support energy management devices - including sensors and load controls - and is forecast to be one of the
largest growth areas.
• Study Available to purchase
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
2010 2011 2012 2013
Total product & system integration
CAGR 5.3%
USD million
18Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Vertical Market Overview
by Building Type
20.2%
9.1%
2.4%
14.3%
14.6%
15%
14.6%
9.8%
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Offices
Commercial (retail)
Storage buildings
Education
Health
Other public
Industrial
Miscellaneous
US$ million
Top vertical markets:
Offices
Central / Local Government
Industrial
Education
Health
19Excellence in Market Intelligence
Product Distribution Channels
World
ROUTE 1 MECHANICAL CONTRACTOR
23%
ROUTE 2 (ENERGY SERVICES/FM COMPANY)
4%
ROUTE 3 (CONTROL CONTRACTORS)
28%
ROUTE 4 (RESELLER - WHOLESELLERS OR
DISTRIBUTORS)
12%
ROUTE 5 (OEM)9%
ROUTE 6 (DIRECT WITH END
CUSTOMER/
BUILDING OWNER)24%
20Excellence in Market Intelligence
BSRIA Contact Information
Jeremy Towler
Principal Consultant
Intelligent Building Technology
BSRIA HQ
Old Bracknell Lane West
Bracknell - RG12 7AH
England - UK
[+ 44] 1344 465 573
www.bsria.co.uk
Alex Detre
VP Business Development
BSRIA North America
Ottawa, ON
Phone 613.218.8849