world preview 2016-evaluatepharma

World Preview 2016

“Beyond the Patent Cliff”

EvaluatePharma® - helping you to find value in the pharma and biotech sector

June 2011

World Preview to 2016 June 2011

Copyright © 2011 EvaluatePharma Ltd. All rights reserved.

2

Welcome to the EvaluatePharma® World Preview 2016

The fourth edition of EvaluatePharma®’s World Preview brings together many of our analyses

to provide a top level insight, from the world’s financial markets, into the expected performance

of the industry between now and 2016. Based on EvaluatePharma®’s coverage of the world’s

leading 3,000 pharmaceutical and biotech companies, the World Preview highlights trends in

prescription drug sales, patent risk, R&D spend, global brand sales and market performance by

therapy area. Also included in the report is a brief review of 2010 performance.

In this year’s edition of the World Preview we have updated the analysis of the market to 2016

and focused on how the forecast to 2016 has changed compared to the last edition in May

2010.

About EvaluatePharma®

Since 1998 EvaluatePharma® has been providing senior decision makers within the

pharmaceutical industry with an essential service that models the sector from the viewpoint of

the world’s financial markets.

EvaluatePharma®’s forward looking view of the market is hugely influential as it displays the

consensus of expectations, which influence company stock market valuations. The forecasts of

equity analysts reveal their perspectives on individual company performance, industry trends

and the macro economic environment.

EvaluatePharma® has captured the consensus forecasts of equity analysts and seamlessly

integrated them with the historic results, as reported by companies. From this comprehensive

view of the industry, its past and expected future performance emerges and can be analysed

using EvaluatePharma®. Analyses range from total market trends and therapeutic overviews to

individual company performance and product progress.

Whatever your view on the future of the industry, EvaluatePharma® can help you find value in the pharma and biotech sector. To find out more about this report and EvaluatePharma® services contact us:

North America: Debbie Paul Tel: 1-617-573-9453 Email: [email protected]

Rest of the World: Will Hau Tel: +44 (0)20 7377 0800 Email: [email protected]

General Enquiries: [email protected]

Disclaimer

This report may not be relent, resold, hired out or otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form of

binding or cover other than that in which it is published, without the prior consent of EvaluatePharma Ltd.

While all reasonable steps have been taken to ensure that the data presented are accurate,

EvaluatePharma Ltd cannot accept responsibility for errors or omissions. Neither does EvaluatePharma

Ltd warrant the accuracy, merchantability or fitness of use for a particular purpose of the data.



3

EvaluatePharma® Foreword: Last year’s edition of the World Preview highlighted that prescription drug sales were forecast to

increase by 2.9% per year between 2010 and 2016. In this edition, we can report an upward

revision in growth to 4.0% per year between 2010 and 2016. The uplift can be attributed to an

upward revision in consensus product forecasts (see page 19) due to favourable news events

(page 26), the continuing weakness in the dollar vs. major currencies and a general improvement

in sentiment over the last 12 months.

Does this signal anything of substance? Despite the upward revision, prescription sales growth is

still forecast to lag world economic growth, predicted by the IMF to be 4.4% per year over 2011 and

2012. Underlying this is a two speed world, with developed economies growing at 2.4% and

emerging economies growing at 6.5% per year over the period. In a business world increasingly

obsessed with emerging markets, it is often overlooked that the ultimate prize for global majors is

to sell innovative patented products to the wealthy sub-populations in emerging markets who can

afford private healthcare and to convince governments to pay for patented products, rather than

selling generic drugs listed on reimbursement lists. Struggling global majors may talk-up the

Chinese market, but it cannot be viewed as a substitute for innovation.

The shift in the pharmaceutical industry’s focus from the dominant US market towards emerging

markets is a symptom of patent expirations coupled with poor R&D productivity, rather than any

fundamental economic weakness in the US market. GlaxoSmithKline’s decline, to be outside of the

world’s Top 5 biggest sellers of prescription medicines in 2010 (page 22), is a prime example. Its

failure to replace ageing blockbusters has seen its US pharmaceutical sales decline from $19.1bn

in 2006 to $11.8bn in 2010, despite spending more than $30bn on R&D over the same period.

On R&D productivity, 2010 did register a bumper year for new drug approvals in the US in terms of

quality. Despite the number of new drugs approved declining 24% in 2010 to 26, the quality of the

approved products (based on US sales 5 years post-launch) more than doubled to $13.3bn (page

12), easily the best year since 2004 (when Avastin was approved). This year’s increase in quality,

coupled with flat (declining in real terms) industry R&D investment over the last 3 years, is a

positive step towards rebalancing R&D output to investment. The imbalance remains huge with the

average Net Present Value (NPV) of new products averaging $70bn per year between 2008-10,

versus R&D investment at $127bn per year. The Industry as a whole is not yet generating a return

on R&D investment. Even if all R&D was successful it is unlikely governments would be capable of

reimbursing all new products. It is telling that when Pfizer announced the removal of $1.5bn from its

2012 R&D spend, its stock price rose 5%. In an age of austerity who will be next to wield the axe to

their R&D budget?

In terms of patent expiries 2011 and 2012 are forecast to be the worst years, with $54bn of sales

set to be lost. With small molecule patent expiries relatively priced-in and given a more balanced

R&D output to investment, the financial markets may start to re-evaluate global majors as having a

more positive long term growth prospect beyond the patent cliff.

The analysis we present here is a snapshot of an evolving picture so please view it as such. But

whatever the outlook, EvaluatePharma® is there to help you find value in the pharma and biotech

sector.

Anthony Raeside, Head of Research



4

EvaluatePharma® World Preview 2016 – Analysis Highlights

� 2016 forecasts for the top 50 products have increased by $21.7bn (+13% upgrade) since April 2010;

� Worldwide prescription drug sales total $853bn in 2016; Since April 2010 growth revised up from 2.9% to 4.0% (CAGR) over 2010 – 2016;

� Over $255bn of sales at risk from patent expirations in 2011-16;

� Humira world's largest selling product in 2016;

� Pfizer, Novartis and Sanofi competing for top spot in 2016;

� Biotech products fail to overtake small molecule sales within top 100 drugs by 2016;

� Global pharmaceutical R&D spend returns to growth in 2010 following unprecedented decline in 2009; still over investment;

� Pfizer’s 2016 R&D spend revised down by $1.2bn since April 2010;

� Anti-coagulants set to record highest growth of major therapy categories to 2016;

� Best year for NME approvals since 2004 as sales potential doubles; number of new drugs approved down 24%;

� GSK falls out of top 5 in 2010; first time since late 1980s;

� Teva continues to dominate generic drug market in 2010;

� Roche’s company value slumps in 2010 due to setbacks to Avastin and taspoglutide;

� Novo Nordisk’s share price soars in 2010 following series of positive events within anti-diabetic business



5

Table of Contents

� Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales (2002-16) 6

� Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2016: Top 20 Companies 7

� Worldwide Prescription & OTC Sales by Technology (2002-16) 8

� Top 20 Most Valuable R&D Projects (Ranked by Net Present Value) 9

� Worldwide R&D Spend by Pharma & Biotech Companies (2002-2016) 10

� Pharmaceutical R&D Spend in 2016: Top 20 Companies 11

� FDA New Drug Approval Analysis (NMEs & Biologicals): 1997 to 2010 12

� Worldwide Rx & OTC Sales by Therapy Area in 2016 13

� Oncology Market to 2016 14

� Anti-Diabetic Market to 2016 15

� Anti-Rheumatics Market to 2016 16

� Vaccine Market to 2016 17

� Anti-Virals Market to 2016 18

� 2016: Top 50 Selling Products in the World 19

� 2016: Top 50 Selling Products in the USA 20

� Worldwide Rx & OTC Sales by Therapy Area in 2010 21

� Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2010 22

� Worldwide Generic Drug Sales in 2010 23

� M&A Analysis: 2006 to 2010 24

� Venture Financing Analysis: 2006 to 2010 New Analysis

25

� Key Product Events Positively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2010 New Analysis

26

� Key Product Events Negatively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2010 New Analysis

27

� Enterprise Value Analysis: 2009 to 2010 28

� Net Income in 2010: Top 20 Companies 29

� Net Income Margin in 2010: Top 20 Companies 30

� 2010: Top 50 Selling Products in the World 31

� 2010: Top 50 Selling Products in the USA 32

� About EvaluatePharma® 33

Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales (2002-16)

Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales (2002-16)

Swine Flu Contribution* 1.0 8.4 5.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

WW Prescription Sales ($bn)

Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Prescription (Rx) 354 406 454 493 539 592 640 656 675 711 730 757 791 820 853

Growth per Year +9.6% +14.8% +11.8% +8.4% +9.4% +10.0% +8.0% +2.5% +2.9% +5.3% +2.7% +3.7% +4.5% +3.7% +4.0%

Change vs. April 2010**+12 +13 +28 +31 +34 +45 +54 +68

Source: EvaluatePharma® (25 MAY 2011) CAGR 10-16 +4.0%

Worldwide Total Prescription Drug Sales 2002-16

Source: EvaluatePharma® (25 MAY 2011)

354406

454493

539592

640 656 675711 730

757791

820853

+10%

+12%

+5%+4% +4%

+15%

+10%

+8%

+3% +3%

+5%

+9%+8%

+3%+4%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

WW

Pre

sc

rip

tio

n S

ale

s (

$b

n)

+0.0%

+2.0%

+4.0%

+6.0%

+8.0%

+10.0%

+12.0%

+14.0%

+16.0%

WW

Sa

les

Gro

wth

%

Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales Forecast to Grow by 4.0% (CAGR) to $853bn by 2016

EvaluatePharma® finds that the market for prescription drugs, based on the consensus forecast for the leading 500 pharmaceutical and

biotechnology companies, will grow by 4.0% per year (CAGR) between 2010 and 2016 to $853bn. This represents an upward revision

on industry growth, given the comparable 2.9% growth per year predicted in last year's edition of the World Preview. This upward

revision can be attributed to a number of positive event outcomes (see page 26), which led to product forecasts adding $39bn in 2016

(page 19), and the continuing weakness in the dollar, which raised the currency translated value of sales outside of the USA. The key

dynamic limiting future growth from returning to the high single digit level experienced prior to 2009 is the sharp increase in sales at risk

from patent expirations, which sees $255bn of sales at risk between 2011 and 2016 ($139bn predicted to be lost).

Note: Industry sales based on Top 500 pharmaceutical and biotech companies.

Sales to 2010 based on company reported sales data. Sales forecasts to 2016 based on a consensus of leading equity analysts'

estimates for company product sales and segmental sales.

*Swine Flu products include vaccines and influenza treatments Tamiflu and Relenza

**EvaluatePharma® expanded company coverage added $12bn to 2009 vs. April 2010.

Worldwide Sales At Risk from Patent Expiration 2002-16

13 1318 19 21 21

26

33

41

63

32

41

47

31

9 8 12 1113

20

1310

13

21

33

2419

2220

7

4%

2%

3%4% 4% 4% 3%

5%4%

5%

4%

6%

9%

6%

4%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

WW

Sale

s (

$b

n)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

% A

t R

iskTotal Sales at Risk

Expected Sales Lost

% of Rx Market At Risk

Patent Analysis: 'Total Sales at Risk' represent the worldwide product sales in the year prior to patent expiry but allocated to the year of

expiry. E.g. Lipitor had sales of $10.7bn in 2010, this is shown above as 'At Risk' in 2011.

+4.0% CAGR 2010-16

Expected Key Patent Expiries in 2012: Plavix

(SNY/ BMS) Seroquel (AZN), Diovan (NVS),

Singulair (MRK), Actos (TAK), Lexapro (FRX) &

Viagra (PFE).

Copyright © 2011 EvaluatePharma Ltd. All rights reserved. 6

Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2016: Top 20 Companies

WW Prescription Drug Sales (2010/16): Top 20 Companies & Total Market

2016 Change Rank

Company 2010 2016 % CAGR 10-16 vs. Apr-2010 2010 2016 Chg. (+/-) Chg. (+/-)

1 Pfizer 54.1 51.2 -1% +4.0 8.0% 6.0% -2.0% -

2 Sanofi 36.6 50.2 +5% +11.2 5.4% 5.9% +0.5% +2

3 Novartis 41.4 49.7 +3% +2.6 6.1% 5.8% -0.3% -1

4 GlaxoSmithKline 35.6 45.0 +4% +6.3 5.3% 5.3% +0.0% +2

5 Roche 35.6 43.6 +3% -0.3 5.3% 5.1% -0.2% -

6 Merck & Co 40.4 42.3 +1% -4.0 6.0% 5.0% -1.0% -3

7 AstraZeneca 32.1 27.0 -3% +4.9 4.7% 3.2% -1.6% -

8 Abbott Laboratories 19.9 24.4 +3% -1.7 2.9% 2.9% -0.1% +2

9 Teva Pharmaceutical 14.5 23.9 +9% +3.1 2.1% 2.8% +0.7% +4

10 Johnson & Johnson 20.7 21.9 +1% -2.9 3.1% 2.6% -0.5% -1

11 Bayer 14.2 18.8 +5% +1.3 2.1% 2.2% +0.1% +3

12 Novo Nordisk 10.8 18.4 +9% +3.6 1.6% 2.2% +0.5% +5

13 Bristol-Myers Squibb 15.5 17.5 +2% +1.8 2.3% 2.0% -0.3% -2

14 Eli Lilly 20.8 16.8 -4% -0.3 3.1% 2.0% -1.1% -6

15 Amgen 14.7 15.3 +1% -3.3 2.2% 1.8% -0.4% -3

16 Takeda 12.6 15.0 +3% +2.9 1.9% 1.8% -0.1% -

17 Boehringer Ingelheim 12.6 13.7 +1% -0.8 1.9% 1.6% -0.3% -2

18 Daiichi Sankyo 10.8 12.8 +3% +1.6 1.6% 1.5% -0.1% -

19 Astellas Pharma 10.3 11.9 +2% +1.3 1.5% 1.4% -0.1% -1

20 Baxter International 8.1 11.0 +5% -1.1 1.2% 1.3% +0.1% -1

Total Top 20 461.1 530.3 +2% +30.4 68.3% 62.2% -6.2%

Other 213.7 322.5 +6% +37.8 31.7% 37.8%

Total 674.8 852.8 +3% +68.2 100.0% 100.0%


WW Prescription Sales ($bn) WW Market Share

WW Prescription Drug Sales in 2016: Top 10 Companies


51.2 50.2 49.7

45.0 43.6 42.3

27.024.4 23.9

21.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Pfizer

Sanofi

Novart

is

Gla

xoS

mithK

line

Roche

Merc

k &

Co

Astr

aZ

eneca

Abbott

Labora

tories

Teva

Pharm

aceutical

Johnson &

Johnson

WW

Pre

scri

pti

on

Sale

s (

$b

n)

Note: Prescription drug sales include generic drug sales. Excludes alliance revenue and royalties where possible.

Pfizer, Sanofi and Novartis Contesting Top Spot in 2016

EvaluatePharma® finds that Pfizer, Sanofi and Novartis will be competing for the position of largest pharma company in the

world in 2016 (based on prescription drug sales); all predicted to have prescription sales in the region of $50bn in 2016.

Novo Nordisk is set to climb 5 ranking positions to 12th with sales growing 9% per year to $18.4bn in 2016, due to strong

insulin franchise sales (including the potential new longer-acting insulin product, Degludec) and growth of its new GLP-1

agonist, Victoza. Teva is forecast to climb 4 ranking positions to number 9 in the world, partly aided by the acquisition of

German generic company ratiopharm in 2010.

Eli Lilly is set to plunge 6 ranking positions to 14th in 2016 following patent expiration of Zyprexa in 2011 and Cymbalta in

2013, which leads to a 4% decline per year in prescription sales between 2010 and 2016.

(-) +2 -1 +2 (-) -3 (-) +2 +4 -1

Sales ($bn)

CAGR 2010-16 (%)

Ranking Chg. 2010-16

-1% +5% +3%

+4%

+9%

+1%

-3% +3%

+1%

+3%


Worldwide Prescription & OTC Sales by Technology (2002-16)

Worldwide Prescription & OTC Sales by Technology (2002-2016)

Technology 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Biotechnology 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 21% 21% 21%

Conventional/ Unclassified 90% 89% 88% 87% 86% 85% 84% 83% 82% 81% 80% 79% 79% 79% 79%

Total Rx & OTC Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

WW Sales ($bn)

Technology 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Biotechnology 38 46 56 66 79 96 110 119 130 140 151 163 175 184 192

Conventional 261 301 331 347 371 396 418 429 431 444 437 440 450 454 465

Other Unclassified Sales 75 82 91 105 115 128 142 140 146 162 178 191 205 221 237

Total Rx & OTC Sales 374 429 478 518 565 620 670 688 707 745 765 794 829 860 894


WW Prescription Drug Sales from Biotechnology in 2016: Top 10 Companies

Chg. Rank

Company 2010 2016 % CAGR 10-16 2010 2016 (+/-) Chg.

1 Roche 23.7 30.6 +4% 18.3% 15.9% -2.3% -

2 Novo Nordisk 9.9 17.6 +10% 7.7% 9.2% +1.5% +1

3 Sanofi 9.8 15.5 +8% 7.6% 8.1% +0.5% +1

4 Amgen 13.9 14.6 +1% 10.7% 7.6% -3.1% -2

5 Pfizer 9.3 12.3 +5% 7.2% 6.4% -0.7% -

6 GlaxoSmithKline 5.5 9.3 +9% 4.3% 4.8% +0.6% +3

7 Abbott Laboratories 6.7 9.2 +6% 5.2% 4.8% -0.3% -

8 Merck & Co 7.0 9.1 +4% 5.4% 4.8% -0.7% -2

9 Eli Lilly 4.7 6.1 +5% 3.6% 3.2% -0.4% +1

10 Johnson & Johnson 5.6 5.7 +0% 4.3% 3.0% -1.4% -2

WW Sales ($bn) WW Market Share

Percentage of Worldwide Rx & OTC Pharmaceutical Sales from Biotech vs. Conventional

Technology Source: EvaluatePharma® (25 MAY 2011)

10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 18% 19% 20% 21% 21% 21% 21%

90% 89% 88% 87% 86% 85% 84% 83% 82% 81% 80% 79% 79% 79% 79%

17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Te

ch

no

log

y %

of

Rx

& O

TC

Sa

les

Biotechnology

Conventional/ Unclassified

Biotech Products Fail to Overtake Small Molecule Sales within Top 100 Drugs by 2016

EvaluatePharma® finds that the percentage of sales from biotechnology products (bioengineered vaccines + biologics), within the

world's top 100 drugs, is set to increase from 33% in 2010 to 45% by 2016. This is a downward revision on the 48% contribution

forecast in April 2010. In the broader market, sales from biotechnology products are set to capture 21% of the world pharmaceutical

market by 2016, versus its current share of 18% in 2010. The total value of biotechnology sales is set to grow 48% between 2010

and 2016 from $130bn to $192bn.

Biotech Within Top 100 Products

Biotechnology's rapid increase in

share within Top 100 products: 2002

(15%), 2010 (33%) & 2016 (45%)

Note: Company drug sales from

undisclosed products are presumed

to be from conventional (small

molecule) technology.

45

%55

%

33

%67

%

15

%

85

%

2016 Split:

Biotech: n=41 (avg. $2.78bn)

Conv.: n=59 (avg. $2.35bn)

Note: Sanofi results for 2010 are not pro-forma for the acquisition of Genzyme.


Top 20 Most Valuable R&D Projects (Ranked by Net Present Value)

Top 20 Most Valuable R&D Projects (Ranked by Net Present Value)

WW Product Sales ($m)

Rank Product Company Phase (Current) Pharmacological Class 2016

1 Degludec Novo Nordisk Phase III Insulin 1,389 new entry 5,807

2 Tofacitinib (CP-690550) Pfizer Phase III JAK-3 inhibitor 1,651 new entry 4,953

3 BG-12 Biogen Idec Phase III Fumarate 1,224 new entry 4,666

4 Incivek Johnson & Johnson Filed Hep C protease inhibitor 2,243 4,332

5 Relovair Theravance Phase IIIBeta 2 adrenoreceptor

agonist & corticosteroid- 4,241

6 DR Cysteamine Undisclosed Partner Phase IIILysosomal transport

modulator3,231 new entry 4,155

7 AMR101 Undisclosed Partner Phase III Omega-3 fatty acid 2,289 new entry 4,052

8 Eliquis Bristol-Myers Squibb Filed Factor Xa inhibitor 2,150 3,836

9 Eliquis Pfizer Filed Factor Xa inhibitor - new entry 3,592

10 Bexsero Novartis Filed Meningococcal B vaccine 1,085 3,250

11Elvitegravir + GS 9350 +

TruvadaGilead Sciences Phase III

NRTI, HIV integrase

inhibitor & CYP3A inhibitor879 3,210

12 Reolysin Undisclosed Partner Phase III Oncolytic virus 1,358 new entry 2,618

13 Ruxolitinib (INC424) Incyte Phase III JAK-1/2 inhibitor 758 2,468

14 DegludecPlus Novo Nordisk Phase III Insulin 629 new entry 2,334

15 VEGF Trap-Eye Regeneron Filed VEGFr kinase inhibitor 663 new entry 2,310

16 Xarelto Johnson & Johnson Filed Factor Xa inhibitor 1,215 2,257

17 Varespladib (A-002) Anthera Phase III sPLA2 inhibitor 724 new entry 2,196

18 Ivacaftor (VX-770) Vertex Phase III CFTR potentiator 541 new entry 2,142

19 Crizotinib (PF-02341066) Pfizer Phase III c-Met & ALK inhibitor 554 new entry 2,123

20 Trastuzumab-DM1 Roche Phase IIIAnti-HER2 MAb-DM1

conjugate423 new entry 1,974

Top 20 23,005 66,517

Other 59,093 182,948

Total 82,098 249,466 -8%

Source: EvaluatePharma® (25 MAY 2011) NPV of R&D Pipeline APR 2010: 271,836

Most Valuable R&D Projects (Ranked by NPV) in April 2010 Which Have Since Been Approved or Suffered Setbacks

Change Status Change April 2010 Today's Change vs.

vs. APR 10 Product Company Status (April 2010) Since April10 NPV ($m) NPV ($m) Apr-10 (%)

Approved Prolia/Xgeva Amgen Filed Approved 17,892 12,265 -31%

Provenge Dendreon Filed Approved 5,990 5,873 -2%

Benlysta HGS Phase III Approved 5,884 4,645 -21%

Incivek Vertex Phase III Approved 5,558 7,434 34%

Benlysta GlaxoSmithKline Phase III Approved 3,071 3,692 20%

Brilinta* AstraZeneca Filed Approved 2,623 2,947 12%

Esbriet* InterMune Filed Approved 2,590 3,942 52%

Viibryd Forest Filed Approved 2,458 930 -62%

Sub-Total 46,066 41,728 -9%

Setback Numax AstraZeneca Filed Setback 5,135 - -100%

Vorapaxar (SCH 530348) Merck & Co Phase III Setback 4,342 504 -88%

Bydureon Amylin Filed Setback 2,988 1,150 -62%

Taspoglutide (RG1583) Roche Phase III Setback 2,298 - -100%

Sub-Total 14,763 1,654 -89%

Total 60,829 43,382 -29%


Today's NPV

($m)

Note: Theravance to receive royalty payments from GSK on Relovair. DR Cysteamine, AMR101 and Reolysin NPVs based on

assumption of future out-licensing, currently being developed by Raptor Pharmaceutical, Amarin and Oncolytics Biotech, respectively.

Analysts assume Pfizer to receive co-promotion revenues on Eliquis (apixaban) from BMS.

*Brilinta and Esbriet have been approved in the EU but suffered setbacks in the US.

Value of Industry Pipeline Declines only 8% Despite Approvals; Degludec Most Valuable Product

EvaluatePharma® NPV Analyzer finds that the value of the Industry's pipeline declined 8% to $250bn, vs. $272bn as calculated in April

2010. The decrease is a negative indicator for the Industry but masks the positive fact that since April 2010, 8 of last year's top 20 R&D

products (by NPV value) have been approved, thus partly crystallizing shareholder value as the risk of failure is reduced and cash flows

start to be realised. Approvals include the 4 most valuable products: Prolia/Xgeva (Amgen), Provenge (Dendreon), Benlysta

(HGS/GSK) and Incivek (Vertex), which currently have a combined NPV of $30.2bn.

Novo Nordisk's Degludec is the most valuable R&D product in the industry based on NPV, with a value of $5.8bn.


Worldwide R&D Spend by Pharma & Biotech Companies (2002-2016)

Worldwide R&D Spend by Pharma & Biotech Companies (2002-2016)

WW Prescription Sales ($bn)

Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Pharma R&D Spend 69.2 78.7 87.7 95.9 107.5 118.7 129.2 125.3 127.1 132.9 134.1 137.1 140.8 143.9 147.4

Growth per Year +13.7% +11.4% +9.4% +12.1% +10.4% +8.9% -3.0% +1.5% +4.5% +1.0% +2.2% +2.7% +2.2% +2.4%

WW Prescription Sales 354 406 454 493 539 592 640 656 675 711 730 757 791 820 853

R&D as a % of WW Rx Sales 19.6% 19.4% 19.3% 19.5% 19.9% 20.0% 20.2% 19.1% 18.8% 18.7% 18.4% 18.1% 17.8% 17.6% 17.3%

Source: EvaluatePharma® (25 MAY 2011) CAGR 10-16 on Pharma R&D Spend

Cumulative R&D Spend (2002-10) $939 bn

+2.5%

Worldwide Total Pharmaceutical R&D Spend in 2002-16


6979

8896

107

119

129 125 127133 134 137 141 144 147

+13.7%

+11.4%

+9.4%

+12.1%

+10.4%

+8.9%

-3.0%

+1.5%

+4.5%

+1.0%

+2.2%+2.7%

+2.2% +2.4%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

WW

Ph

arm

a R

&D

Sp

en

d (

$b

n)

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

R&

D S

pen

d G

row

th %

Global Pharmaceutical R&D Spend Set to Grow by 2.5% (CAGR) to $147bn by 2016; Industry Reinvestment Rate Declining

EvaluatePharma® estimates that worldwide pharmaceutical R&D totalled $127bn in 2010, a 1.5% increase on 2009. Despite this

representing a return to nominal growth compared to the unprecedented 3.0% decline in 2009, the rate of growth has not returned to the

double-digit increases seen in R&D spend between 2002 and 2008 and R&D budgets are now forecast to grow at 2.5% per year, to

reach $147bn by 2016. Industry reinvestment, measured by R&D spend as a percentage of prescription sales is set to decline from

18.8% in 2010 to 17.3% in 2016. The decline can be attributed to the fact that R&D spend is growing by less than prescription drug sales

as global majors streamline and downsize R&D operations after major patent expiries and historically poor R&D investment returns. The

other factor is the change in product mix of the prescription drug industry towards generics, which requires a fraction of the R&D spend.


Forecast pharmaceutical research and development spend based on a consensus of leading equity analysts' estimates for company level

R&D spend, extrapolated to pharmaceutical R&D when a company has non-pharmaceutical R&D activity.

+2.5% CAGR 2010-16

+8.9% CAGR 2002-09


Pharmaceutical R&D Spend in 2016: Top 20 Companies

Pharmaceutical R&D Spend (2010/16): Top 20 Companies & Total Market

2016 Change

Company 2010 2016 CAGR 10-16 vs Apr-10 2010 2016 Chg. (+/-)

1 Novartis 7.9 9.9 +4% -0.1 19.0% 19.9% +0.9%

2 Merck & Co 8.1 8.5 +1% -0.3 20.1% 20.1% -0.0%

3 Roche 7.8 8.4 +1% -1.0 22.0% 19.3% -2.7%

4 GlaxoSmithKline 5.7 7.6 +5% +0.2 16.0% 17.0% +1.0%

5 Sanofi 5.8 7.4 +4% +1.4 15.9% 14.7% -1.3%

6 Pfizer 9.1 7.2 -4% -1.2 16.8% 14.0% -2.7%

7 Johnson & Johnson 4.5 5.2 +2% -0.9 21.7% 23.6% +1.9%

8 Eli Lilly 4.7 5.0 +1% -0.5 22.8% 29.6% +6.7%

9 AstraZeneca 4.2 4.4 +1% -0.1 13.2% 16.4% +3.3%

10 Takeda 3.4 3.8 +2% +0.1 26.9% 25.3% -1.6%

11 Bayer 2.3 3.6 +8% +1.0 16.3% 19.1% +2.8%

12 Bristol-Myers Squibb 3.3 3.4 +1% +0.1 21.3% 19.7% -1.6%

13 Boehringer Ingelheim 3.1 3.4 +2% +0.1 24.3% 24.5% +0.2%

14 Amgen 2.8 3.2 +2% -0.0 19.3% 21.1% +1.8%

15 Novo Nordisk 1.7 2.9 +9% +0.4 15.8% 15.8% +0.0%

16 Abbott Laboratories 2.3 2.7 +3% -0.1 11.4% 11.1% -0.3%

17 Daiichi Sankyo 2.3 2.6 +2% +0.3 21.1% 20.3% -0.9%

18 Astellas Pharma 2.5 2.3 -2% +0.3 24.7% 19.0% -5.7%

19 Otsuka Holdings 1.8 1.9 +1% +0.9 25.2% 36.0% +10.8%

20 Merck KGaA 1.6 1.9 +3% -0.1 22.0% 21.9% -0.1%

Total Top 20 85.0 95.2 +1.9% +0.6 18.4% 18.0% -0.5%

Other 42.2 52.2 +3.6% +1.3

Total 127.1 147.4 +2.5% +1.9


R&D As a % of Rx SalesPharma R&D ($bn)

Pharmaceutical R&D in 2016: Top 10 Companies


9.9

8.5 8.4

7.67.4 7.2

5.2 5.04.4

3.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

Novart

is

Merc

k &

Co

Roche

Gla

xoS

mithK

line

Sanofi

Pfizer

Johnson &

Johnson

Eli

Lill

y

Astr

aZ

eneca

Takeda

R&

D S

pen

d (

$b

n)

Note: Forecast pharmaceutical R&D spend based on a consensus of leading equity analysts' estimates for company level

R&D spend.

Novartis Tops Pharmaceutical R&D Spend in 2016

EvaluatePharma®'s consensus forecast finds Novartis spending the most on pharmaceutical research and development by

2016, with a spend of $9.9bn. In 2010 Pfizer had the largest pharmaceutical R&D budget but falls to the 6th biggest

spender by 2016. It is the only global major forecast to cut R&D spend between 2010 and 2016. Since April 2010

consensus analyst forecasts for Pfizer's R&D spend have been revised down by $1.2bn in 2016.

+4%

+1%

+5% -4%

+1%

+1%

+4%

+1%

+2%

R&D Spend ($bn)

CAGR 2010-16 (%)

+2%


FDA New Drug Approval Analysis (NMEs & Biologicals): 1997 to 2010

FDA Approval Count (NMEs & Biologicals) vs. 5th Year after Launch USA Product Sales

Year 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

No. of NMEs Approved 39 30 35 27 24 17 21 31 18 18 16 21 19 15

No. of Biologicals Approved 10 9 5 6 8 9 14 7 10 11 10 10 15 11

Total NMEs + Biologicals 49 39 40 33 32 26 35 38 28 29 26 31 34 26

% Chg. -20% +3% -18% -3% -19% +35% +9% -26% +4% -10% +19% +10% -24%

USA Sales 5yrs Post Launch $bn 7.4 13.5 7.1 7.4 8.5 12.7 8.3 14.1 6.5 8.1 5.1 5.0 6.1 13.3

% Chg. +82% -48% +4% +14% +50% -34% +69% -54% +25% -37% -2% +20% +119%

Top 10 New Molecular Entities in 2010: Ranked on USA Consensus Sales in 2015

Product 2010 2015

1 Prevnar 13 Pfizer 1,761 2,329

2 Prolia/Xgeva Amgen 34 1,864

3 Provenge Dendreon 48 1,818

4 Victoza Novo Nordisk 207 1,165

5 Gilenya Novartis 15 1,077

6 Pradaxa Boehringer Ingelheim - 883

7 Jevtana Sanofi 109 657

8 Latuda Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma - 631

9 Actemra Roche 56 560

10 Halaven Eisai 26 423

Other 170 1,898

Total 2,425 13,306


Company Approved

US Sales

Feb 2010

Jun 2010

Apr 2010

Jan 2010

Sep 2010

Nov 2010

Oct 2010

Jun 2010

Oct 2010

Jan 2010

FDA Approval Count vs. Total USA Product Sales 5 Years After Launch


$7bn

$14bn

$7bn $7bn$8bn

$13bn

$8bn

$14bn

$8bn

$5bn

$13bn

$7bn$5bn

$6bn

49

39 40

33 32

38

29

34

262628

26

31

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

US

A S

ale

s 5

Yrs

aft

er

Lau

nch

($b

n)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

No

. o

f N

ew

Dru

gs

USA Sales 5yrs Post Launch $bn No. of NMEs Approved

Best Year for Approvals since 2004 as Sales Potential Doubles; Number of New Drugs Approved Down 24%

EvaluatePharma® found that the FDA approved 26 new drugs in 2010, a decrease of 24% from the 2009 figure of 34. The

2010 approvals included 15 new molecular entities (down 4) and 11 biologicals (down 4 on 2009).

Despite this decrease in new drug approvals, the quality of the approvals improved significantly over 2009 thanks to the

approval of several potential blockbusters: Prevnar 13 (Pfizer), Prolia/Xgeva (Amgen), Provenge (Dendreon), Victoza (Novo

Nordisk) and Gilenya (Novartis). Indeed, the quality of the NMEs in 2010 is the highest since 2004, with anticipated USA

sales 5 years post launch of $13.3bn, a 119% increase over 2009.

Product name (company ticker) of

products in good years (>$1bn) sales)

Average 5th Year USA Sales Potential: $8.8bn

Note: Sales forecasts based on a

consensus of leading equity

analysts' estimates.

5th year USA sales for products

approved before 2005 are based

on actual company reported sales.

E.g. Erbitux (BMS), approved in

FEB 2004 has company reported

US sales in 2009 (5th year post US

launch) of $671m.

2004

Avastin (Roche)

Cymbalta (LLY)

Lyrica (PFE)

Spiriva (BI/ PFE)

2002

Neulasta (AGMN)

Abilify (BMY/ Otsuka)

Zetia (SGP/ MRK)

Humira (ABT)

Eloxatin (SNY)

1998

Remicade (JNJ)

Singulair (MRK)

Celebrex (PFE)

Enbrel (AMGN/ WYE)

Viagra (PFE)

Celexa (FRX)

2010

Prevnar 13 (PFE)

Prolia/Xgeva (AMGN)

Provenge (DNDN)

Victoza (Novo N)

Gilenya (NVS)


Worldwide Rx & OTC Sales by Therapy Area in 2016

Analysis on Top 10 Therapy Sales in 2012, Market Share & Sales Growth (2007-12)

WW Rx & OTC Sales by EvaluatePharma® Therapy Area (2010/16): Top 15 Categories & Total Market

CAGR 2016 Change Rank

Therapy Area 2010 2016 % Growth vs. Apr-2010 2010 2016 Chg. (+/-) Chg. (+/-)

1 Oncology* 60.0 90.5 +7.1% +17.7 8.5% 10.1% +1.6% -

2 Anti-diabetics 30.6 47.3 +7.5% +2.8 4.3% 5.3% +1.0% +3

3 Anti-rheumatics 32.7 42.8 +4.6% +0.0 4.6% 4.8% +0.2% +1

4 Vaccines 25.3 36.5 +6.3% -0.5 3.6% 4.1% +0.5% +3

5 Anti-virals 22.1 32.5 +6.6% +0.2 3.1% 3.6% +0.5% +3

6 Anti-hypertensives 40.9 32.1 -4.0% +4.6 5.8% 3.6% -2.2% -4

7 Bronchodilators 32.8 30.7 -1.1% +5.6 4.6% 3.4% -1.2% -4

8 Anti-hyperlipidaemics 29.8 25.2 -2.8% +4.9 4.2% 2.8% -1.4% -2

9 Dermatologicals 12.4 16.2 +4.6% +4.4 1.7% 1.8% +0.1% +2

10 Anti-coagulants 7.4 15.8 +13.5% +1.7 1.0% 1.8% +0.7% +5

11 Sensory organs 13.8 15.5 +2.0% -0.9 2.0% 1.7% -0.2% -1

12 MS therapies 11.1 14.5 +4.5% +2.3 1.6% 1.6% +0.0% -

13 Anti-bacterials 15.4 14.1 -1.4% +1.9 2.2% 1.6% -0.6% -4

14 Anti-fibrinolytics 9.1 12.1 +4.9% -0.3 1.3% 1.4% +0.1% -

15 Bone calcium regulators 9.9 11.3 +2.2% -2.7 1.4% 1.3% -0.1% -2

Top 15 353 437 +3% +41.6 50.0% 48.9% -1.1%

Other 354 457 +4% 50.0% 51.1% +1.1%

Total WW Rx & OTC Sales 707 894 +4% 100.0% 100.0%

Total 'Rx & OTC Sales' includes:WW Unbranded Generic Sales 61.2 96.2 +8% 8.7% 10.8% +2.1%

OTC Pharmaceuticals 31.9 41.4 +4% 4.5% 4.6% +0.1%



Note: Industry sales based on Top 500 pharmaceutical and biotech companies. Sales in 2010 based on company reported data. Sales

forecasts to 2016 based on a consensus of leading equity analysts' estimates for product sales and segmental sales.

*Compared to April 2010, EvaluatePharma® now classifies Revlimid (Celgene, 2016 Sales: $5,550m) and Afinitor (Novartis, 2016

Sales: 2,058) as oncology products (previously classified as immunostimulants).

Oncology Remains Largest Segment; Anti-coagulants Set to Record Highest Growth to 2016

Oncology remains the largest segment to 2016, with strong growth from in-line products and new products, off-setting a number of

major patent expiries over the period.

Over the period 2010 to 2016, EvaluatePharma® finds that sales from anti-coagulants are set to grow at an annual rate of 13.5%. This

strong growth is being driven by new oral treatments for the prevention of stroke, MI and thrombosis.

Analysis on Top 10 Therapy Areas in 2016, Market Share & Sales Growth (2010-16)


Oncology*

Anti-diabeticsAnti-rheumatics

Vaccines

Anti-virals

Anti-hypertensivesBronchodilators

Anti-hyperlipidaemicsDermatologicals Anti-coagulants

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

-10.0% -5.0% +0.0% +5.0% +10.0% +15.0% +20.0%

% Sales Growth: CAGR 2010-16

WW

Mark

et

Sh

are

%

Key Patent Expiry

Lipitor (PFE) in 2011

Note: Bubble = WW Sales in 2016

Key Drivers

Avastin (Roche), Rituxan (Roche)

Tasigna (NVS), Afinitor (NVS)

Provenge (DNDN), Revlimid (CELG)

Key Patent Expiries

Taxotere (SAN), Arimidex (AZN)

Gleevec (NVS), Gemzar (LLY)

Femara (NVS)

Key Drivers:

New oral treatments

Xarelto (BAY/ J&J)

Eliquis (BMS / PFE)

Pradaxa (BI)

Key Patent Expiries

Angiotensin II antagonists segment

Diovan (NVS) in 2012, Avapro (BMY/

SAN) in 2012, Micardis (BI) in 2014.


Oncology Market to 2016

Analysis on Worldwide Sales, Market Share & Sales Growth (2010-16)

Top 10 Companies & Total Worldwide Oncology Sales 2010-16

2016 Change CAGR Rank Chg.

Rank Company 2010 2016 vs. Apr-2010 2010-16 2010 2016 2010-16

1 Roche 20,256 25,803 +1466 +4% 33.8% 28.5% -

2 Novartis* 6,321 7,463 +2218 +3% 10.5% 8.2% -

3 Celgene* 3,480 7,354 +6455 +13% 5.8% 8.1% +2

4 Bristol-Myers Squibb 1,800 4,899 +1038 +18% 3.0% 5.4% +4

5 Pfizer 2,682 4,225 +21 +8% 4.5% 4.7% +2

6 Eli Lilly 3,338 4,046 -362 +3% 5.6% 4.5% -

7 Sanofi 3,740 3,696 +1224 -0% 6.2% 4.1% -3

8 AstraZeneca 4,045 3,171 +138 -4% 6.7% 3.5% -5

9 GlaxoSmithKline 1,064 2,993 +432 +19% 1.8% 3.3% +5

10 Dendreon 48 2,617 +954 +95% 0.1% 2.9% +31

Top 10 46,775 66,269 +13584 +5% 78.0% 73.2%

Other 13,188 24,217 +9% 22.0% 26.8%

Total Industry 59,963 90,486 +17660 +6% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: EvaluatePharma® (25 MAY 2011); Consensus sales from equity analysts' reports

Top 5 Oncology Products Worldwide in 2016

CAGR Current

Rank Product Generic Name Company Pharma Class 2010 2016 2010-16 2010 2016 Status

1 Avastin bevacizumab Roche Anti-VEGF MAb 6,214 7,831 +3% 10.4% 8.7% Marketed

2 Rituxan rituximabRoche + Biogen

IdecAnti-CD20 MAb 6,113 7,684 +3% 10.2% 8.5% Marketed

3 Herceptin trastuzumab RocheAnti-HER2 (ErbB-2)

MAb5,221 6,466 +3% 8.7% 7.1% Marketed

4 Revlimid lenalidomide Celgene Immunomodulator 2,469 5,550 +12% 4.1% 6.1% Marketed

5 Alimtapemetrexed

disodiumEli Lilly

Thymidylate

synthase inhibitor2,209 2,891 +4% 3.7% 3.2% Marketed

WW Sales ($m)

WW Sales ($m)

WW Market Share

WW Market Share

Roche Set to Continue Domination of Oncology Market

EvaluatePharma® found that Roche commanded an impressive 33.8% market share of the worldwide oncology market in 2010. Roche's

dominance is set to continue with consensus forecasts predicting a 28.5% share of the $90.5bn oncology market in 2016. Dendreon is set to enter

the top 10 by 2016 owing to the 2010 launch of its cancer vaccine (Provenge), which is forecast to achieve sales of $2.6bn in 2016.

Bristol-Myers Squibb's oncology sales are forecast to grow by 18% between 2010 and 2016, moving the company to 4th spot in the company

rankings, due to strong performances from Sprycel (dasatinib), Yervoy (ipilimumab) and Ixempra (ixabepilone).

Patent expiries on Arimidex and Casodex are set to hit AstraZeneca which drops 5 ranking positions to 8th spot in 2016. �

Note: Oncology Includes: Alkaloids, Alkylating agents, Anti-metabolites, Anti-neoplastic MAbs, Cancer vaccines, Cytotoxic antibiotics, Hormone

therapies, Platinum compounds and other anti-cancer. Excludes anti-emetics and anti-anaemics used in chemotherapy-induced anaemia. Also

excludes: Interferons, immunostimulants & immunosuppressants.

*Compared to April 2010, EvaluatePharma® now classifies Revlimid (Celgene, 2016 Sales: $5,550m) and Afinitor (Novartis, 2016 Sales: $2,058m)

as oncology products (previously classified as immunostimulants).

Roche

Novartis* Celgene*

Bristol-Myers SquibbPfizer

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

-5% +0% +5% +10% +15% +20% +25%


WW

Mark

et

Sh

are

%

Roche: Set to control world's top 3 leading

oncology products by 2016 with Avastin,

Rituxan and Herceptin.

Few patent concerns.



BMS: Strong growth from Sprycel,

Yervoy and Ixempra.

NVS: Tasigna set to replace lost Gleevec sales by

2016 (Gleevec patent expiry JUL 2015).

Femara patent expiry JUN 2011.


Anti-Diabetic Market to 2016


Top 10 Companies & Total Worldwide Anti-Diabetic Sales 2010-16



1 Novo Nordisk 8,144 14,575 +3008 +10% 26.6% 30.8% -

2 Sanofi 5,704 7,595 +1030 +5% 18.6% 16.1% -

3 Merck & Co 3,369 6,691 +630 +12% 11.0% 14.2% +1

4 Takeda 4,975 3,801 +355 -4% 16.2% 8.0% -1

5 Eli Lilly 3,294 3,774 -427 +2% 10.8% 8.0% -

6 Bristol-Myers Squibb 264 2,470 +326 +45% 0.9% 5.2% +7

7 Amylin Pharmaceuticals 651 1,139 -1376 +10% 2.1% 2.4% -

8 Novartis 500 1,079 +419 +14% 1.6% 2.3% +1

9 Servier 610 645 +16 +1% 2.0% 1.4% -2

10 Bayer 463 522 +91 +2% 1.5% 1.1% -1

Top 10 27,975 42,291 +4072 +6% 91.4% 89.4%

Other 2,644 4,989 +9% 8.6% 10.6%

Total Industry 30,619 47,280 +2797 +6% 100.0% 100.0%


Top 5 Anti-Diabetic Products Worldwide in 2016

CAGR Current


1 Januvia/Janumet sitagliptinMerck + Ono +

AlmirallDPP-IV inhibitor 3,503 6,800 +12% 11.4% 14.4% Marketed

2 Lantus insulin glargine Sanofi Insulin 4,658 5,585 +3% 15.2% 11.8% Marketed

3 NovoRapid insulin aspart Novo Nordisk Insulin 2,120 3,672 +10% 6.9% 7.8% Marketed

4 Human insulin & devicesinsulin recombinant

humanNovo Nordisk Insulin 2,502 2,507 +0% 8.2% 5.3% Marketed

5 Humalog insulin lispro Eli Lilly Insulin 2,054 2,223 +1% 6.7% 4.7% Marketed

WW Sales ($m)

WW Sales ($m)

WW Market Share

WW Market Share

Novo Nordisk to Extend Dominance in Anti-Diabetic Market

EvaluatePharma® finds Novo Nordisk will continue as the market leader in anti-diabetic products, increasing market share from 26.6% to 30.8%

between 2010 and 2016 due to strong growth from its insulin franchise (including the potential new longer-acting insulin product, Degludec) and

Victoza (GLP-1). Indeed, positive news flow on Victoza and Degludec helped increase 2016 forecasts for the company's anti-diabetic sales by

$3.0bn compared to April 2010.

Bristol-Myers Squibb and AstraZeneca are set to become significant players in the diabetes market with strong growth forecast from their new

DPP-IV inhibitor, Onglyza, over the period.

Novo Nordisk

Takeda Eli Lilly

Sanofi

Merck & Co

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

-10% -5% +0% +5% +10% +15% +20%


WW

Ma

rke

t S

ha

re %

MRK: Strong growth in DPP-IV inhibitor

franchise Januvia/Janumet.

Takeda: Actos generic competition

expected 2012.

New DPP-IV inhibitor Nesina set to

cushion the blow.



Note: Bristol-Myers Squibb to book worldwide end-user sales on Onglyza, co-promoted worldwide (ex Japan) with AstraZeneca.

Novo: Solid growth in its core

insulin franchise (including

Degludec) and GLP-1 Victoza.


Anti-Rheumatics Market to 2016


Top 10 Companies & Total Worldwide Anti-rheumatic Sales 2010-16



1 Abbott Laboratories 6,548 8,959 -679 +5% 20.0% 20.9% -

2 Pfizer* 6,496 7,125 +1885 +2% 19.9% 16.6% -

3 Merck & Co 3,209 4,096 +70 +4% 9.8% 9.6% +2

4 Johnson & Johnson 3,491 3,591 -854 +0% 10.7% 8.4% -

5 Amgen 3,534 2,977 -311 -3% 10.8% 7.0% -2

6 Bristol-Myers Squibb 733 1,709 -89 +15% 2.2% 4.0% +3

7 Bayer 917 1,381 +343 +7% 2.8% 3.2% +1

8 UCB 263 1,354 -105 +31% 0.8% 3.2% +7

9 Roche 221 1,181 -618 +32% 0.7% 2.8% +8

10 Mitsubishi Tanabe 707 1,111 +171 +8% 2.2% 2.6% +2

Top 10 26,119 33,484 -186 +4% 80.0% 78.2%

Other 6,541 9,324 +5% 20.0% 21.8%

Total Industry 32,660 42,807 +4 +4% 100.0% 100.0%


Top 5 Anti-rheumatic Products Worldwide in 2016

CAGR Current


1 Humira adalimumab Abbott + Eisai Anti-TNFa MAb 6,742 9,696 +5% 20.6% 22.6% Marketed

2 Enbrel etanerceptAmgen + Pfizer +

TakedaTNFa inhibitor 7,257 7,190 -0% 22.2% 16.8% Marketed

3 Remicade** infliximabJ&J + Merck +

Mitsubishi TanabeAnti-TNFa MAb 6,520 6,107 -1% 20.0% 14.3% Marketed

4 Simponi** golimumab Merck + J&J Anti-TNFa MAb 324 1,942 +29% 1.0% 4.5% Marketed

5 CP-690550 tofacitinib citrate PfizerJanus kinase-3

(JAK-3) inhibitor- 1,651 n/m - 3.9% Phase III

WW Sales ($m)

WW Sales ($m)

WW Market Share

WW Market Share

Abbott Laboratories Set to be Clear No. 1 in 2016

EvaluatePharma®'s consensus forecast predicts Abbott Laboratories will remain the world's number 1 player in anti-rheumatic sales in 2016.

Abbott Laboratories' strong performance is driven by strong growth from Humira (adalimumab), which is set to achieve global sales of $9.7bn in

2016. This makes the product the leading Anti-TNF product in 2016, ahead of Merck/J&J's Remicade/Simponi franchise which is forecast to

reach $8.0bn by 2016 and Pfizer/Amgen's Enbrel which is forecast to sell $7.2bn in 2016. Strong forecast growth from Cimzia and Actemra is set

to propel UCB and Roche, respectively, to positions 8 and 9 in the company rankings.

Note: Anti-rheumatic sales include TNF inhibitors, COX-2 inhibitors, NSAIDs and new treatments in development.

TNF inhibitor sales include RA, Crohn's and Psoriasis. Pfizer books US co-promotion revenues on Enbrel.

*Compared to April 2010, EvaluatePharma® now classifies CP-690550 (Pfizer, 2016 Sales: $1,651m) as an Other Anti-rheumatic (previously

classified as an immunosuppressant).

**Combined Remicade and Simponi sales $8.0bn. Simponi (golimumab) is Merck and J&J's next generation product to Remicade (infliximab).

Amgen

Pfizer*

Abbott Laboratories

Johnson & JohnsonMerck & Co

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-6% -4% -2% +0% +2% +4% +6% +8%


WW

Ma

rke

t S

ha

re %

ABT: Continued growth for Humira (adalimumab) in

the TNF inhibitor market to 2016.



AMGN:

Enbrel sales forecast to decline

owing to increased competition in

both RA and psoriasis.


Vaccine Market to 2016


Top 10 Companies & Total Worldwide Vaccine Sales 2010-16



1 GlaxoSmithKline 6,689 8,034 -139 +3% 26.4% 22.0% -

2Sanofi + 50% Sanofi

Pasteur MSD5,662 7,984 +1439 +5% 19.9% 19.1% -

3 Pfizer 3,669 6,217 +38 +9% 14.5% 17.0% +1

4Merck & Co + 50% Sanofi

Pasteur MSD4,093 5,472 +389 +4% 13.7% 12.2% -1

5 Novartis 2,101 3,395 -59 +8% 8.3% 9.3% -

6 CSL 504 934 +190 +11% 2.0% 2.6% -

7 Baxter International 296 440 -76 +7% 1.2% 1.2% +1

8 Abbott Laboratories 231 407 -16 +10% 0.9% 1.1% +3

9 Takeda 234 404 n/m +10% 0.9% 1.1% +1

10 Mitsubishi Tanabe 346 351 +77 +0% 1.4% 1.0% -3

Top 10 23,825 33,638 +1844 +5% 89.2% 86.5%

Other 1,521 2,861 +9% 10.8% 13.5%

Total Industry 25,346 36,498 -464 +5% 100.0% 100.0%


Top 5 Vaccine Products Worldwide in 2016

CAGR Current

Rank Product Generic Name Company 2010 2016 2010-16 2010 2016 Status

1 Prevnar 13pneumococcal

vaccinePfizer 2,416 5,805 +13% 9.5% 15.9% Marketed

2 PENTAct-HIBDTPw, Hib & polio

vaccineSanofi 1,306 1,922 +6% 5.2% 5.3% Marketed

3 Fluzone influenza vaccineSanofi + Sanofi

Pasteur MSD1,341 1,806 +4% 5.3% 4.9% Marketed

4Hepatitis Vaccine

Franchise

hepatitis A & B

vaccineGlaxoSmithKline 1,113 1,318 +2% 4.4% 3.6% Marketed

5 PediarixDTP, hepatitis B &

polio vaccineGlaxoSmithKline 1,082 1,310 +3% 4.3% 3.6% Marketed

WW Sales ($m)

WW Sales ($m)

WW Market Share

WW Market Share

GlaxoSmithKline Retains Number 1 Spot in 2016

EvaluatePharma® finds that GSK retains the number 1 spot in vaccines in 2016, despite seeing its market share drop from 26.4% in

2010 to 22.0% in 2016. Pfizer is set to have the fastest growing vaccines division within global majors between 2010 and 2016, with

predicted average annual growth of 9%, driven by its pneumococcal vaccines, including the switch from Prevnar to Prevnar 13, the

company's new vaccine which protects against an additional 6 strains of pneumococcal bacteria.

.

Note: Sanofi Pasteur MSD is a European joint venture between Merck & Co and Sanofi.

Novartis

Sanofi + 50% Sanofi Pasteur

MSDPfizer

GlaxoSmithKline

Merck & Co + 50% Sanofi

Pasteur MSD

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

+0% +2% +4% +6% +8% +10% +12%


WW

Ma

rke

t S

ha

re %



Pfizer

Strong growth from newly acquired pneumococcal

vaccines (Prevnar & Prevnar 13).

Novartis

Strong contribution expected from new meningococcal

vaccines. Bexsero (2016 sales: $1.0bn) and Menveo

sales (2016 sales: $643m).


Anti-Virals Market to 2016


Top 10 Companies & Total Worldwide Anti-virals Sales 2010-16



1 Gilead Sciences 6,537 9,694 -1072 +7% 29.6% 29.9% -

2 Johnson & Johnson 1,133 4,514 -762 +26% 5.1% 13.9% +5

3 Merck & Co 1,517 3,430 +449 +15% 6.9% 10.6% +3

4 Bristol-Myers Squibb 2,748 3,217 +128 +3% 12.4% 9.9% -1

5 GlaxoSmithKline 4,897 2,687 +309 -10% 22.2% 8.3% -3

6 Vertex Pharmaceuticals - 1,730 +848 n/m 0.0% 5.3% New Entry

7 Abbott Laboratories 1,619 1,068 -722 -7% 7.3% 3.3% -3

8 Roche 1,607 938 -61 -9% 7.3% 2.9% -3

9 SIGA Technologies - 612 +432 n/m - 1.9% New Entry

10 AstraZeneca 646 563 -898 -2% 2.9% 1.7% -2

Top 10 20,704 28,453 -1350 +5% 93.7% 87.7%

Other 1,404 3,999 +16% 6.3% 12.3%

Total Industry 22,107 32,452 +195 +6% 100.0% 100.0%


Top 5 Anti-viral Products Worldwide in 2016

CAGR Current


1 Incivek telaprevirJ&J + Vertex +

Mitsubishi

Hepatitis C

protease inhibitor- 4,226 n/m - 13.0% Approved

2 Atripla

efavirenz;

emtricitabine;

tenofovir

Gilead Sciences NNRTI & NRTI 2,927 3,687 +4% 13.2% 11.4% Marketed

3 Truvadaemtricitabine;

tenofovirGilead + Torii NRTI 2,746 3,345 +3% 12.4% 10.3% Marketed

4 Isentress raltegravir potassium Merck & CoHIV integrase

inhibitor1,090 2,222 +13% 4.9% 6.8% Marketed

5 Reyataz atazanavir sulfateBristol-Myers

SquibbProtease inhibitor 1,479 1,883 +4% 6.7% 5.8% Marketed

WW Sales ($m)

WW Sales ($m)

WW Market Share

WW Market Share

Gilead Sciences to Dominate Anti-Virals to 2016

EvaluatePharma® finds Gilead Sciences commands a 29.9% market share of the anti-virals area by 2016, with sales set to increase 7% annually

between 2010 and 2016. Conversely, GSK is set to fall from 2nd to 5th spot over the same period, due to continued sales decline of its once market-

leading herpes treatment, Valtrex, and the expected poor performance from its previously market-dominating HIV franchise. Merck, Vertex and

Johnson & Johnson are expected to benefit from the introduction of new treatments for hepatitis C over the period.

Gilead Sciences

Johnson & Johnson

Bristol-Myers SquibbGlaxoSmithKline

Merck & Co

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

-20% -10% +0% +10% +20% +30% +40%


WW

Ma

rke

t S

ha

re %

GSK: Hit by patent expiries (Valtrex - DEC

2009). Weak performance predicted from HIV

franchise.



J&J: Growth driven by new hep C

protease inhibitor Incivek

(telaprevir).

MRK:

Strong growth from HIV integrase

inhibitor Isentress (raltegravir) and new

hep C protease inhibitor Victrelis

(boceprevir).

Gilead: Set to continue dominance in

innovative HIV combinational therapy.

Note: GlaxoSmithKline consolidates 100% of the revenues from ViiV Healthcare, a joint venture with Pfizer for the marketing of the two companies'

HIV anti-virals.


2016: Top 50 Selling Products in the World

Market

Product Generic Name Company Pharmacological Class 2010 2016 % Growth Status

1 Humira adalimumab Abbott + Eisai Anti-TNFa MAb 6,742 9,696 +5% Marketed -405 -4%

2 Avastin bevacizumab Roche Anti-VEGF MAb 6,214 7,831 +3% Marketed -1078 -12%

3 Rituxan rituximab Roche + Biogen Idec Anti-CD20 MAb 6,113 7,684 +3% Marketed +897 +13%

4 Crestor rosuvastatin calciumAstraZeneca + Shionogi +

Chiesi

Statin/ HMG CoA reductase

inhibitor6,106 7,518 +3% Marketed +1242 +20%

5 Enbrel etanercept Amgen + Pfizer + Takeda TNFa inhibitor 7,257 7,190 -0% Marketed -119 -2%

6 Seretide/Advairfluticasone propionate;

salmeterol xinafoateGSK + Almirall + Faes

Beta 2 adrenoreceptor agonist &

corticosteroid8,067 6,953 -2% Marketed +1768 +34%

7 Januvia/Janumet sitagliptin Merck + Ono + Almirall DPP-IV inhibitor 3,503 6,800 +10% Marketed +791 +13%

8 Herceptin trastuzumab Roche Anti-HER2 (ErbB-2) MAb 5,221 6,466 +3% Marketed +300 +5%

9 Remicade infliximabJ&J + Merck + Mitsubishi

TanabeAnti-TNFa MAb 6,520 6,107 -1% Marketed +380 +7%

10 Prevnar 13 pneumococcal vaccine Pfizer Pneumococcal vaccine 2,416 5,805 +13% Marketed +4081 +237%

11 Lantus insulin glargine Sanofi Insulin 4,658 5,585 +3% Marketed +292 +6%

12 Revlimid lenalidomide Celgene Immunomodulator 2,469 5,550 +12% Marketed +702 +14%

13 Incivek telaprevir J&J + Vertex + Mitsubishi Hepatitis C protease inhibitor 0 4,226 Approved +554 +15%

14 Lyrica pregabalin Pfizer + Eisai Alpha 2 delta ligand 3,077 3,998 +4% Marketed -78 -2%

15 Xarelto rivaroxaban Bayer + J&J Factor Xa inhibitor 100 3,991 +69% Marketed +366 +10%

16 Atriplaefavirenz; emtricitabine;

tenofovirGilead Sciences NNRTI & NRTI 2,927 3,687 +3% Marketed +165 +5%

17 NovoRapid insulin aspart Novo Nordisk Insulin 2,120 3,672 +8% Marketed +415 +13%

18 Neulasta pegfilgrastim Amgen + Kyowa Hakko Colony stimulating factor 3,558 3,442 -0% Marketed +344 +11%

19 Xgeva/Prolia denosumabAmgen + GSK + Daiichi

SankyoAnti-RANKL MAb 41 3,361 +88% Marketed -1799 -35%

20 Truvada emtricitabine; tenofovir Gilead + Torii NRTI 2,746 3,345 +3% Marketed -52 -2%

21 DR Cysteamine cysteamine bitartrate Raptor Pharmaceutical Lysosomal transport modulator - 3,231 Phase III +3231 n/m

22 Spiriva tiotropium Boehringer Ingelheim + Pfizer Muscarinic antagonist 3,799 3,223 -2% Marketed -1366 -30%

23 Micardis telmisartan Boehringer + Astellas + Bayer Angiotensin II antagonist 3,258 3,070 -1% Marketed +708 +30%

24 Lucentis ranibizumab Novartis + Roche Anti-VEGF MAb 2,935 3,062 +1% Marketed -367 -11%

25 Benicar/Olmetec olmesartan Daiichi Sankyo + Forest Angiotensin II antagonist 2,487 3,035 +3% Marketed +260 +9%

26 Symbicortbudesonide; formoterol

fumarate dihydrateAstraZeneca + Sigma-Tau

Beta 2 adrenoreceptor agonist &

corticosteroid2,760 2,992 +1% Marketed +638 +27%

27 Benlysta belimumabHuman Genome Sciences +

GSK

Anti-B lymphocyte stimulator

(BLyS) MAb- 2,892 Marketed +151 +6%

28 Alimta pemetrexed disodium Eli Lilly Thymidylate synthase inhibitor 2,209 2,891 +4% Marketed -384 -12%

29 Lipitor atorvastatin calcium Pfizer + Astellas + AlmirallStatin/ HMG CoA reductase

inhibitor11,968 2,791 -19% Marketed +118 +4%

30 Privigen immune globulin (human) CSL Immunoglobulin 1,565 2,620 +8% Marketed +745 +40%

31 Provenge sipuleucel-T Dendreon Prostate cancer vaccine 48 2,617 +77% Marketed +955 +57%

32 Advate factor VIII (procoagulant) Baxter International Factor VIII 1,800 2,612 +5% Marketed -362 -12%

33 Botox botulinum toxin type A Allergan + GSK Botulinum toxin 1,435 2,596 +9% Marketed +244 +10%

34 Gilenya fingolimod Novartis S1P receptor modulator 15 2,587 +109% Marketed +1825 +239%

35 Human insulin & devices insulin recombinant human Novo Nordisk Insulin 2,502 2,507 +0% Marketed +392 +19%

36 Zetia ezetimibe Merck & Co Cholesterol absorption inhibitor 2,297 2,502 +1% Marketed +247 +11%

37 Copaxone glatiramer acetate Teva + Sanofi MS agent 3,300 2,444 -4% Marketed -222 -8%

38 Plavix clopidogrel bisulfate Sanofi + BMS Platelet ADP antagonist 9,148 2,443 -17% Marketed +772 +46%

39 Pradaxa dabigatran etexilate Boehringer Ingelheim Thrombin inhibitor 265 2,384 +37% Marketed +1210 +103%

40 Lovenox/Clexane enoxaparin sodium SanofiHeparin, low molecular weight

(LMWH)3,724 2,376 -6% Marketed -369 -13%

41 Aranesp darbepoetin alfa Amgen + Kyowa Hakko Erythropoietin 2,974 2,348 -3% Marketed -224 -9%

42 Gleevec/Glivec imatinib mesylate Novartis Tyrosine kinase inhibitor 4,265 2,293 -8% Marketed -216 -9%

43 AMR101 icosapent ethyl Amarin Omega-3 fatty acid - 2,289 Phase III +2289 n/m

44 Cialis/Adcirca tadalafilEli Lilly + United Therapeutics

+ Nippon Shinyaku

Phosphodiesterase V (PDE5)

inhibitor1,784 2,273 +4% Marketed +254 +13%

45 Tasigna nilotinib NovartisBCR-ABL, PDGFr & c-kit

tyrosine kinase inhibitor399 2,272 +28% Marketed +166 +8%

46 Erbitux cetuximab Merck KGaA + BMS Anti-EGFr MAb 1,751 2,237 +4% Marketed -276 -11%

47 Humalog insulin lispro Eli Lilly Insulin 2,054 2,223 +1% Marketed -97 -4%

48 Isentress raltegravir potassium Merck & Co HIV integrase inhibitor 1,090 2,222 +11% Marketed +132 +6%

49 Victoza liraglutide Novo Nordisk GLP-1 agonist 413 2,220 +27% Marketed +1261 +131%

50 Velcade bortezomib Takeda + J&J Proteasome inhibitor 1,801 2,208 +3% Marketed +1173 +113%

Total 151,899 190,364 +3% +21653 +13%

Total WW Individual Products Forecast in EvaluatePharma® 562,232 656,072 +2% +39493 +6%

Impact of increased company coverage in EvaluatePharma® +5667

Impact of consensus forecasts added since April 2010 for companies completing IPOs in 2010 and 2011 +3642

Estimated change in 2016 consensus forecast for all products forecast in EvaluatePharma® +30184


WW Product Sales ($m) 2016 Change

vs Apr-10

Note: Sales represent company reported sales where available, otherwise based on an average of equity analyst estimates.

*$33.8bn is the sum of newly IPO'd companies ($3.6bn), plus estimated change in 2016 consensus forecast for all products forecast ($30.2bn).

2016 Forecasts Upgraded by $33.8bn (+5% Upgrade) Since April 2010; Humira No.1 in 2016

EvaluatePharma® finds that total 2016 forecasts for the individual products have increased by $33.8bn (+5.4%)* since April 2010. In the top 10 products the largest

upward revisions since April 2010 are Crestor (AstraZeneca) and Seretide/Advair (GSK), which saw their 2016 forecasts increase by $1.2bn and $1.8bn,

respectively, due to announcements which indicated a reduced generic threat to 2016. The largest global brand in 2016 is predicted to be Humira, sold by Abbott

Laboratories and Eisai (Japan), which is forecast to reach $9.7bn in 2016


2016: Top 50 Selling Products in the USA

WW Market

Product Generic Name Company Pharmacological Class 2010 2016 % Growth Status

1 Rituxan rituximab Roche + Biogen Idec Anti-CD20 MAb 2,910 3,570 +3% Marketed +27 +1%

2 Humira adalimumab Abbott Laboratories Anti-TNFa MAb 2,872 3,538 +3% Marketed -257 -7%

3 Avastin bevacizumab Roche Anti-VEGF MAb 3,068 3,450 +2% Marketed -141 -4%

4 Januvia/Janumet sitagliptin phosphate Merck & CoDipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-

IV) inhibitor & biguanide2,139 3,417 +7% Marketed -116 -3%

5 Advairfluticasone propionate;

salmeterol xinafoateGlaxoSmithKline

Beta 2 adrenoreceptor agonist

& corticosteroid4,026 3,266 -3% Marketed +848 +35%

6 Revlimid lenalidomide Celgene Immunomodulator 1,433 2,949 +11% Marketed +266 +10%

7 Lantus insulin glargine recombinant Sanofi Insulin 2,832 2,801 -0% Marketed -355 -11%

8 Enbrel etanercept Amgen TNFa inhibitor 3,304 2,777 -2% Marketed -439 -14%

9 Remicade infliximab Johnson & Johnson Anti-TNFa MAb 3,099 2,621 -2% Marketed +5 +0%


tenofovirGilead Sciences NNRTI & NRTI 1,909 2,562 +4% Marketed +569 +29%

11 Prevnar 13 pneumococcal vaccine Pfizer Pneumococcal vaccine 1,761 2,450 +5% Marketed +1556 +174%

12 Neulasta pegfilgrastim Amgen Colony stimulating factor 2,654 2,383 -2% Marketed +985 +70%

13 AMR101 icosapent ethyl Amarin Omega-3 fatty acid - 2,289 Phase III +2289 n/m

14 Herceptin trastuzumab Roche Anti-HER2 (ErbB-2) MAb 1,530 2,150 +5% Marketed +394 +22%

15 Xgeva/Prolia denosumab Amgen Anti-RANKL MAb 34 2,063 +80% Marketed -1067 -34%

16 Provenge sipuleucel-T Dendreon Prostate cancer vaccine 48 1,993 +70% Marketed +330 +20%

17 Crestor rosuvastatin calcium AstraZenecaStatin/ HMG CoA reductase

inhibitor2,640 1,981 -4% Marketed -189 -9%

18 Benlysta belimumab Human Genome SciencesAnti-B lymphocyte stimulator

(BLyS) MAb- 1,980 Marketed -210 -10%

19 Copaxone glatiramer acetateTeva Pharmaceutical

IndustriesMS agent 2,287 1,743 -4% Marketed +330 +23%

20 Incivek telaprevir Vertex Pharmaceuticals Hepatitis C protease inhibitor - 1,730 Approved +848 +96%

21 Truvadaemtricitabine; tenofovir

disoproxil fumarateGilead Sciences NRTI 1,309 1,719 +4% Marketed +163 +11%

22 Lyrica pregabalin Pfizer Alpha 2 delta ligand 1,424 1,589 +2% Marketed +11 +1%

23 Botox botulinum toxin type A Allergan Botulinum toxin 830 1,536 +9% Marketed +28 +2%

24 Epogen/Procrit epoetin alfa Amgen + J&J Erythropoietin 3,594 1,509 -12% Marketed -763 -34%

25 NovoRapid insulin aspart recombinant Novo Nordisk Insulin 847 1,469 +8% Marketed +166 +13%

26 Levemir insulin detemir recombinant Novo Nordisk Insulin 516 1,395 +15% Marketed +324 +30%

27 Vyvanse lisdexamfetamine dimesylate Shire Psychostimulant 634 1,338 +11% Marketed +268 +25%

28 Lucentis ranibizumab Roche Anti-VEGF MAb 1,402 1,314 -1% Marketed -171 -12%

29 Victoza liraglutide recombinant Novo NordiskGlucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-

1) agonist207 1,288 +30% Marketed +869 +207%

30 Eliquis apixaban Bristol-Myers Squibb Factor Xa inhibitor - 1,271 Filed +151 +13%

31 Gammagard immune globulin (human) Baxter International Immunoglobulin 921 1,238 +4% Marketed -278 -18%

32 Varivax varicella vaccine Merck & Co Varicella vaccine 929 1,228 +4% Marketed +308 +33%

33 Zetia ezetimibe Merck & Co Cholesterol absorption inhibitor 1,227 1,227 +0% Marketed -105 -8%

34 Gilenya fingolimod NovartisSphingosine 1-phosphate

(S1P) receptor modulator15 1,220 +87% Marketed +804 +193%

35 Xarelto rivaroxaban Johnson & Johnson Factor Xa inhibitor - 1,215 Filed -387 -24%

36 Brilinta ticagrelor AstraZeneca P2Y12 antagonist - 1,170 Marketed -135 -10%

37 Humalog insulin lispro recombinant Eli Lilly Insulin 1,222 1,155 -1% Marketed -195 -14%

38 Isentress raltegravir potassium Merck & Co HIV integrase inhibitor 554 1,147 +11% Marketed +137 +14%

39 Alimta pemetrexed disodium Eli Lilly Thymidylate synthase inhibitor 957 1,093 +2% Marketed -175 -14%

40 NovoSeven eptacog alfa Novo Nordisk Factor VII 774 1,067 +5% Marketed +70 +7%

41 Premarin estrogens, conjugated Pfizer Oestrogen agonist 949 1,062 +2% Marketed +208 +24%

42 Orencia abatacept Bristol-Myers Squibb B7 integrin antagonist 547 1,034 +10% Marketed -42 -4%

43 Byetta/Bydureon exenatide Amylin + Eli LillyGlucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-

1) agonist559 1,033 +9% Marketed -1048 -50%

44 Onglyza saxagliptin hydrochloride Bristol-Myers SquibbDipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-

IV) inhibitor119 1,020 +36% Marketed +132 +15%

45 Avonex interferon beta-1a Biogen Idec Interferon beta 1,492 1,016 -5% Marketed -407 -29%

46 Xifaxan rifaximin Salix Pharmaceuticals Ansamycin 250 1,001 +22% Marketed -227 -18%

47 Velcade bortezomib Takeda Proteasome inhibitor 594 998 +8% Marketed +888 +807%

48 Tysabri natalizumab Elan Anti-VLA-4 MAb 593 990 +8% Marketed +451 +84%

49 Advate factor VIII (procoagulant) Baxter International Factor VIII 682 989 +5% Marketed -73 -7%

50 CP-690550 tofacitinib citrate PfizerJanus kinase-3 (JAK-3)

inhibitor- 987 Phase III +379 +62%

Total 61,694 88,028 +5% +7023 +9%

Total USA Individual Products Forecast in EvaluatePharma® 245,150 251,741 +2% -5849 -2%


USA Product Sales ($m) 2016 Change

vs Apr-10


Rituxan Edges Ahead of Avastin and Humira; AMR101 Highest Ranking R&D Product

EvaluatePharma® finds that Roche and Biogen Idec's Rituxan is set to become the top selling USA product in 2016, with sales of $3.6bn, narrowly beating Abbott's

Humira, Roche's Avastin and Merck & Co's Januvia/Janumet to the No. 1 spot. Amarin's AMR101, a new Omega-3 fatty acid for dyslipidaemia, is the highest

ranked R&D product, at number 13 in the list, with USA sales of $2.3bn in 2016. In total, 2016 forecasts for the top 50 products have increased by $7.0bn since

April 2010, whilst all product forecasts have declined $5.8bn, signifying a shift in the concentration of value to the Top 50 products.


Worldwide Rx & OTC Sales by Therapy Area in 2010

Analysis on Top 10 Therapy Sales in 2010, Market Share & Sales Growth (2009-10)

WW Rx & OTC Sales by Therapy Area: Top 15 Categories

Rank

Therapy Area 2009 2010 % Growth 2009 2010 Chg. (+/-) Chg. (+/-)

1 Oncology 56.4 60.0 +6% 8.2% 8.5% +0.3% -

2 Anti-hypertensives 42.0 40.9 -2% 6.1% 5.8% -0.3% -

3 Bronchodilators 30.9 32.8 +6% 4.5% 4.6% +0.1% -

4 Anti-rheumatics 29.0 32.7 +13% 4.2% 4.6% +0.4% +1

5 Anti-diabetics 27.4 30.6 +12% 4.0% 4.3% +0.3% +1

6 Anti-hyperlipidaemics 29.3 29.8 +2% 4.3% 4.2% -0.0% -1

7 Vaccines 23.4 25.3 +8% 3.4% 3.6% +0.2% +1

8 Anti-virals 24.7 22.1 -11% 3.6% 3.1% -0.5% -1

9 Anti-psychotics 18.3 19.2 +5% 2.7% 2.7% +0.0% -

10 Antacids and Anti-ulcerants 17.7 16.9 -5% 2.6% 2.4% -0.2% -

11 Anti-bacterials 16.1 15.4 -5% 2.3% 2.2% -0.2% -

12 Sensory organs 12.4 13.8 +12% 1.8% 2.0% +0.2% +2

13 Antidepressants 13.9 13.7 -1% 2.0% 1.9% -0.1% -1

14 Platelet aggregation inhibitors 12.8 12.6 -2% 1.9% 1.8% -0.1% -1

15 Dermatologicals 11.1 12.4 +11% 1.6% 1.7% +0.1% -

Top 15 365.3 378.0 +3.5% 53.1% 53.5% +0.3%

Other 322.3 329.1 +2.1% 46.9% 46.5% -0.3%

Total WW Rx & OTC Sales 687.5 707.1 +2.8% 100.0% 100.0% +194.6

Total 'Rx & OTC Sales' includes: WW Unbranded Generic Sales 54.1 61.2 +13.2% 7.9% 8.7% +0.8%

OTC Pharmaceuticals 30.9 31.9 +3.3% 4.5% 4.5% +0.0%



Sales in 2010 based on company reported data.

Oncology Segment Largest Segment in 2010

EvaluatePharma® found that sales from products within the oncology therapeutic category grew by 6% in 2010 to $60.0bn,

maintaining its lead over anti-hypertensives as the largest therapeutic category.

2009's fastest growing category, anti-virals, saw the biggest decline amongst the top 15 categories, as sales fell by 11% to

$22.1bn. This decline was driven by a sharp drop in sales of GSK's Valtrex following patent expiration in December 2009, as

well as a decline in H1N1 (swine flu) treatments following stockpiling in 2009.

Oncology

BronchodilatorsAnti-hypertensives Anti-rheumatics

Anti-diabetics

Anti-hyperlipidaemics

Anti-virals

Anti-psychoticsAntacids and Anti-

ulcerants

Vaccines

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-15% -10% -5% +0% +5% +10% +15% +20%

% Sales Growth: 2009-10

WW

Mark

et

Sh

are

%

Key Drivers

Avastin (Roche)

Alimta (Lilly)

Revlimid (Celgene)

Patent Expiries

Eloxatin (Sanofi)

Arimidex (AZN)


Key Growth Breaks (H1N1)

Tamiflu (Roche)

Relenza (GSK)

Key Drivers

Humira (Abbott)

Enbrel (Amgen/Pfizer)

Remicade (J&J/ Merck)


Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2010

WW Prescription Sales in 2010: Top 20 Companies

Rank

Company 2009 2010 % Growth 2009 2010 Chg. (+/-) Chg. (+/-)

1 Pfizer** 42.4 54.1 +28% 6.5% 8.0% +1.6% -

2 Novartis 37.0 41.4 +12% 5.6% 6.1% +0.5% +1

3 Merck & Co** 27.8 40.4 +45% 4.2% 6.0% +1.8% +4

4 Sanofi 38.3 36.6 -4% 5.8% 5.4% -0.4% -2

5 Roche 36.0 35.6 -1% 5.5% 5.3% -0.2% -

6 GlaxoSmithKline 36.3 35.6 -2% 5.5% 5.3% -0.3% -2

7 AstraZeneca 31.6 32.1 +1% 4.8% 4.7% -0.1% -1

8 Eli Lilly 19.7 20.8 +6% 3.0% 3.1% +0.1% +1

9 Johnson & Johnson 21.2 20.7 -2% 3.2% 3.1% -0.2% -1

10 Abbott Laboratories** 16.5 19.9 +21% 2.5% 2.9% +0.4% -

11 Bristol-Myers Squibb 14.8 15.5 +5% 2.3% 2.3% +0.0% -

12 Amgen 14.4 14.7 +2% 2.2% 2.2% -0.0% -

13 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries 12.5 14.5 +16% 1.9% 2.1% +0.2% +2

14 Bayer 14.3 14.2 -0% 2.2% 2.1% -0.1% -1

15 Boehringer Ingelheim 13.8 12.6 -9% 2.1% 1.9% -0.2% -1

16 Takeda 11.9 12.6 +5% 1.8% 1.9% +0.0% -

17 Novo Nordisk 9.6 10.8 +13% 1.5% 1.6% +0.1% +1

18 Daiichi Sankyo 9.2 10.8 +17% 1.4% 1.6% +0.2% +1

19 Astellas Pharma 9.7 10.3 +6% 1.5% 1.5% +0.0% -2

20 Baxter International 7.8 8.1 +4% 1.2% 1.2% +0.0% -

Total Top 20 424.7 461.1 +9% 64.7% 68.3% +3.6%

Other 231.4 213.7 -8% 35.3% 31.7%

Total 656.1 674.8 +2.9% 100.0% 100.0%


WW Market ShareWW Prescription Sales ($bn)

Global Ranking on WW Prescription Drug Sales in 2010


54.1

41.4 40.436.6 35.6

32.1

20.8 20.7 19.9

35.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

P

fizer*

*

N

ovart

is

M

erc

k &

Co**

S

anofi

R

oche

G

laxoS

mithK

line

A

str

aZ

eneca

E

li Lill

y

Johnson &

Johnson

A

bbott

Labora

tories**

WW

Pre

scri

pti

on

Sale

s (

$b

n)

GSK Out of Top 5; First Time Since Late 1980s. Pfizer Maintain No.1 Positions

EvaluatePharma® found that GSK dropped out of the World's Top 5 companies in 2010, based on booked end-user

prescription drug sales, which represents the first time GSK has been out of the top 5* since the late 1980s. GSK sales

declined 2% to $35.6bn in 2010. Pfizer maintained its number one position, in terms of worldwide prescription drug sales, as it

benefited from the first full year of consolidating Wyeth, acquired in October 2009. Teva continues to rise up the ranking from

15th to 13th in the World. Sanofi was the worst performing global major, recording a 4% decline in worldwide prescription drug

sales as it was hit by generic competition on Lovenox, Eloxatin, Plavix and Allegra.

In 2010, despite the decline in sales of vaccines and treatments for swine flu in 2010, prescription drug sales growth increased

to 2.9% in 2010 vs. 2.5% in 2009.

Note: Sales in 2010 based on company reported data. Excludes alliance revenue and royalties where possible.

*GSK and Glaxo have consistently been in the Top 5 since late 1980s.

**Abbott, Merck & Co and Pfizer based on reported data for 2009/10, not pro-forma. (Abbott acquired Solvay Pharmaceuticals

in Feb 2010, Merck & Co acquired Schering-Plough in Nov 2009 and Pfizer acquired Wyeth in Oct 2009.)

28%

12% 45% -4% -1% -2%

+1%

+6% -2% +21%

Sales ($bn)

Growth rate %


-2 -1 +1 -1 +4 -2 +1


Worldwide Generic Drug Sales in 2010

WW Unbranded Generic Drug Sales in 2010: Top 20 Companies

Rank

Company 2009 2010 % Growth 2009 2010 Chg. (+/-) Chg. (+/-)

1 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries 9.4 11.0 +17% 17.4% 18.0% +0.6% -

2 Novartis 6.7 7.7 +15% 12.3% 12.5% +0.2% -

3 Mylan 4.7 5.0 +6% 8.7% 8.2% -0.5% -

4 Actavis 2.4 2.6 +5% 4.5% 4.2% -0.3% -

5 Watson Pharmaceuticals 1.6 2.3 +38% 3.0% 3.7% +0.7% +2

6 Hospira 1.8 2.0 +12% 3.4% 3.3% -0.0% -

7 Sanofi 1.4 2.0 +44% 2.6% 3.3% +0.7% +3

8 Daiichi Sankyo 1.6 2.0 +27% 2.9% 3.3% +0.4% -

9 Aspen Pharmacare 1.2 1.8 +55% 2.2% 3.0% +0.8% +2

10 STADA Arzneimittel 1.6 1.5 -5% 2.9% 2.4% -0.5% -1

11 Apotex 1.0 1.3 +21% 1.9% 2.1% +0.1% +3

12 Sun Pharmaceutical Industries 0.8 1.2 +45% 1.6% 2.0% +0.4% +7

13 Cipla 1.0 1.2 +19% 1.9% 2.0% +0.1% +2

14 ratiopharm 2.3 1.2 -49% 4.3% 1.9% -2.4% -9

15 Fresenius 0.9 1.1 +29% 1.6% 1.9% +0.2% +2

16 Krka 1.1 1.1 -0% 2.0% 1.8% -0.2% -4

17 Dr. Reddy's Laboratories 1.0 1.1 +14% 1.8% 1.8% +0.0% -1

18 Lupin 0.8 1.1 +24% 1.6% 1.7% +0.1% -

19 Abdi Ibrahim 0.8 0.9 +8% 1.5% 1.5% -0.1% +1

20 Par Pharmaceutical Companies 1.1 0.9 -19% 2.0% 1.4% -0.6% -7

Total Top 20 43.3 48.9 +13% 80.2% 79.9% -0.2%

Other 10.7 12.3 +14% 19.8% 20.1%

Total 54.1 61.2 +13% 100.0% 100.0%


WW Generic Sales ($bn) WW Market Share

Global Ranking on WW Generic Drug Sales in 2010


11.0

7.7

5.0

2.62.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.5

2.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

T

eva

Ph

arm

ace

utica

l

Ind

ustr

ies

N

ova

rtis

M

yla

n

A

cta

vis

W

ats

on

Ph

arm

ace

utica

ls

H

osp

ira

S

an

ofi

D

aiic

hi S

an

kyo

A

sp

en

Ph

arm

aca

re

S

TA

DA

Arz

ne

imitte

l

WW

Ge

ne

ric

Sa

les

($

bn

)

Teva Dominates Generic Segment in 2010; Generic Market Expands 13%*

EvaluatePharma® found that Teva Pharmaceutical continued to dominate the rapidly expanding generic drug market in 2010

with a global market share of 18%. Teva benefited from the consolidation of sales from its $5.3bn acquisition of German generics

company ratiopharm, in August 2010. Sanofi experienced strong growth of 44% in 2010 as it benefited from the first full year

consolidation of sales from its acquisitions of Zentiva, Medley and Kendrick in 2009.

Overall the generic drug market expanded 13% in 2010 based on EvaluatePharma® coverage*.

Note: Sales in 2010 based on company reported data.

ratiopharm sales for 2010 reflect the period January 2010 to August 2010, when the company was acquired by Teva.

Abdi Ibrahim, Actavis, Apotex, Aspen, Cipla, Dr. Reddy's, Lupin, and Sun based on forecast data for 2010.

*EvaluatePharma® coverage: 66 generic companies.

+17%

15%

+5% +38% +12% +44% +27% +55% -5%

Sales ($bn)

Growth rate %


+6%

-1+2 +3 +2


M&A Analysis: 2006 to 2010

Count of Pharma M&A Deals vs. Total Pharma M&A Value (2006 - 2010)

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Deal Count 124 134 153 145 152

% Chg. 8% 14% -5% 5%

Deal Value ($bn) 101 86 69 188 75

% Chg. -15% -20% 171% -60%

Top 10 M&A Deals in 2010: Ranked on Deal Value

Target Target Target Acquiror Completion Deal

Location Focus Date Value ($bn)

1 Alcon USA Specialty Novartis 26 Aug 10 28.1

2 Solvay Pharma Belgium Regional Major Abbott Laboratories 15 Feb 10 6.6

3 ratiopharm Germany Generic Teva 10 Aug 10 5.0

4 Valeant USA Specialty Biovail 28 Sep 10 4.5

5 OSI Pharmaceuticals USA Biotechnology Astellas Pharma 09 Jun 10 4.0

6 Piramal (Solutions) India Generic Abbott Laboratories 08 Sep 10 3.8

7 Abraxis BioScience USA Specialty Celgene 15 Oct 10 2.9

8 Chattem USA Specialty Sanofi 09 Feb 10 1.9

9 Qualitest USA Generic Endo Pharmaceuticals 01 Dec 10 1.2

10 SSP Japan Regional Major Boehringer Ingelheim 14 Apr 10 0.8

Other 15.9

Total 74.6



Source: EvaluatePharma® (30 APR 2010)

$101bn $86bn $188bn $75bn$69bn

124134

153145

152

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

De

al

Va

lue

($

bn

)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

De

al

Co

un

t

Deal Value Deal Count

M&A Deal Value Slumps in 2010, Following Bumper 2009

EvaluatePharma® found that total deal values from M&A involving pharmaceutical companies declined by 60%

to $75bn in 2010, compared to $188bn in 2009, which was a bumper year for M&A with 3 mega-mergers

completed; Pfizer-Wyeth, Merck-Schering-Plough and Roche-Genentech. The number of deals increased

marginally (+5%) to 152 deals closing in 2010. The biggest deal of the year was Novartis acquiring a majority

stake in Alcon for $28.1bn. This followed an acquisition of a minority stake back in 2008.

2010 also saw further consolidation in the generic sector, with Teva acquiring ratiopharm, Endo acquiring

Qualitest, Cephalon acquiring Mepha and Mylan acquiring Bioniche Pharma.

2005

FUJ [YAM] ($20.8bn)

SAN [DAI] ($15.4bn)

2006

SCH [BAY] ($21.3bn)

PFE Cons [JNJ] ($16.6bn)

2007

Organon [SGP] ($15.6bn)

MEDI [AZN] ($15.6bn)

Serono [Merck] ($13.8bn)

2008

Alcon [NVS] ($10.4bn)

2009

WYE [PFE] ($68.0bn)

DNA [Roche] ($46.8bn)

SGP [MRK] ($41.1bn)

Target [Acquiror] (Deal Value)

173%

Growth



$101bn $86bn $188bn $75bn$69bn

124134

153145

152

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

De

al

Va

lue

($

bn

)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

De

al

Co

un

t


2006

SCH [BAY] ($21.3bn)

PFE Cons [JNJ] ($16.6bn)

2007

Organon [SGP] ($15.6bn)

MEDI [AZN] ($15.6bn)

Serono [Merck] ($13.8bn)

2008


2009

WYE [PFE] ($68.0bn)

DNA [Roche] ($46.8bn)

SGP [MRK] ($41.1bn)

Target [Acquiror] (Deal Value)

Note: Analysis based on closing date of deal.

2010



Venture Financing Analysis: 2006 to 2010 New Analysis

Count of Pharma Venture Financing Deals vs. Total Pharma Venture Financing Value (2006 - 2010)

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Deal Count 286 333 291 330 298

% Chg. 16% -13% 13% -10%

Deal Value ($m) 5,604 6,210 4,893 5,251 4,909

% Chg. 11% -21% 7% -7%

Top 10 Venture Financing Deals in 2010: Ranked on Deal Value

Company Listed / Country Company Financing Round Date Deal

Private Type Value ($m)

1 Alvogen Group Private USA Generic Undisclosed 19 Nov 10 200

2 Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Listed USA Biotechnology PIPE 19 Mar 10 181

3 Theravance Listed USA Biotechnology PIPE 29 Nov 10 129

4 Archimedes Pharma Private UK Biotechnology Undisclosed 02 Mar 10 100

5 Reata Pharmaceuticals Private USA Biotechnology Series G 12 Jul 10 78

6 AiCuris Private Germany Biotechnology Series B 14 Apr 10 75

7 Relypsa Private USA Biotechnology Series B 13 Sep 10 70

8 immatics biotechnologies Private Germany Biotechnology Series C 21 Sep 10 70

9 Pearl Therapeutics Private USA Specialty Series C 19 Oct 10 69

10 TESARO Private USA Biotechnology Series A 26 May 10 60

Other 3,877

Total 4,909


Venture Financing Deals Fall in 2010

EvaluatePharma® found that in 2010 both the number of venture financing deals, down 10% to 298, and the total

deal value, down 7% to $4.9bn, fell vs. 2009. The value of venture financing deals can be viewed as a indicator of

R&D investment in the private Biotech sector. At $4.9bn it represents a mere 4% of the total pharmaceutical R&D

spend of $127bn. The trend in venture financing has been flat for the last 3 years.

Of the top 10 venture financing deals in 2010, 7 were for US-based companies, with the biggest being Alvogen, a

company focused on the development of complex generics, which raised $200m in November 2010.

Count of Venture Financing Deals vs. Total Venture Financing Value (2006 - 2010)


$5,604m

$6,210m

$5,251m

$4,909m$4,893m

286

333

291

330

298

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

De

al V

alu

e (

$m

)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

De

al C

ou

nt


Note: Includes investments in pharmaceutical and biotech companies only. Does not include genomics or

medical devices companies.

Includes Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE).


Key Product Events Positively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2010 New Analysis

% Share Market Cap

Company Event Type Product Therapy Area Date Commentary on Share Price Change Price Change Change

1 AstraZeneca Litigation Crestor Anti-hyperlipidaemics 29 Jun 10 29 Jun: A US court rules that the patent on the

company's cholesterol-lowering drug Crestor is valid,

removing the threat of generic versions of the drug

entering the US market until the patent expires in 2016.

+9% +5,760

2 Amgen FDA Approval

(PDUFA)

Prolia Bone calcium regulators 02 Jun 10 1 Jun [post market]: Company receives FDA approval

for its key growth driver, osteoporosis drug Prolia,

nearly two months ahead of the expected action date

of 25 Jul.

+11% +5,106

3 Pfizer Phase III Trial

Results

Eliquis Anti-coagulants 11 Jun 10 10 Jun [post-market]: Company and partner Bristol-

Myers Squibb end phase III trial of anti-coagulant drug

apixaban early, after clear efficacy is seen in a trial

attempting to demonstrate a lower risk of stroke in

patients with atrial fibrillation.

+4% +4,436

4 GlaxoSmithKline Competitor

Announcement

Advair Other bronchodilators 18 Mar 10 18 Mar: Shares rise on news that Novartis' generics

division, Sandoz, has returned the US rights to lung

drug, VR315, a potential generic competitor to

GlaxoSmithKline's asthma drug, Advair, back to

Vectura, due to potential difficulties in getting the drug

to market in the US.

+4% +4,003

5 Novo Nordisk Competitor

Announcement

Victoza Anti-diabetics 20 Oct 10 20 Oct: Shares rise following the FDA's complete

response letter for Amylin's diabetes drug, Bydureon, a

potential competitor for Novo Nordisk's diabetes

treatment, Victoza, which received FDA approval in

January.

+9% +3,834

6 Pfizer Litigation Protonix Antacids & anti-

ulcerants

23 Apr 10 23 Apr: A US federal court rules in the company's

favour in a patent lawsuit with Teva over acid reflux

drug, Protonix, stating that Pfizer's patent is valid and

has been infringed by Teva.

+3% +3,470

7 Teva Phase III Trial

Results

Laquinimod MS Therapies 09 Dec 10 9 Dec: Company and partner Active Biotech announce

positive headline data from first of two phase III trials

for their oral MS drug, laquinimod, meeting primary

and secondary efficacy endpoints as well as

demonstrating a comparable safety profile to placebo.

+7% +3,145

8 Novartis Competitor

Announcement

Gilenya MS Therapies 24 Sep 10 24 Sep: The CHMP issues rival Merck KGaA with a

negative opinion for its oral MS treatment, cladribine,

stating that the drug's benefits do not outweigh its risks.

+2% +2,708

9 Amgen Phase III Trial

Results

Xgeva Bone calcium regulators 14 Dec 10 13 Dec [post market]: Top-line phase III results for the

company's bone drug, Xgeva (denosumab),

demonstrate that the drug significantly improved

median bone metastasis-free survival by 4.2 months

compared to placebo.

+5% +2,506

10 Bristol-Myers Phase III Trial

Results

Yervoy Anti-neoplastic MAbs 07 Jun 10 7 Jun: Phase III trial results for company's melanoma

treatment, ipilimumab, presented at ASCO on 5 Jun,

show that the drug prolongs life and survival of

patients by 34%.

+6% +2,442

11 GlaxoSmithKline FDA Advisory

Committee

Benlysta Immunosuppressants 17 Nov 10 16 Nov: An FDA advisory panel votes 13 to 2 in favour

of approving company and partner, Human Genome

Sciences' lupus drug, Benlysta; final FDA decision due

on 9 Dec.

+2% +2,389

12 Bayer Phase III Trial

Results

Xarelto Anti-coagulants 15 Nov 10 15 Nov: Company and partner, Johnson & Johnson,

report phase III data for anti-clotting drug, Xarelto,

which show that the drug is better at preventing stroke

than standard treatment, warfarin, with lower risk of

intracranial bleeding.

+4% +2,372

13 GlaxoSmithKline Broker Upgrade Potiga Anti-epileptics 12 Aug 10 11 Aug [post market]: An FDA advisory panel

unanimously recommends approval of the company

and partner Valeant Pharmaceuticals' epilepsy drug,

ezogabine (Potiga); final FDA decision due by 30 Aug.

+3% +2,322

14 AstraZeneca FDA Advisory

Committee

Brilinta Platelet aggregation

inhibitors

28 Jul 10 28 Jul: An FDA advisory panel votes 7-1 in favour of

recommending approval for the company's blood

thinner, Brilinta; final FDA decision due by 16 Sep.

+3% +2,274

15 GlaxoSmithKline FDA Advisory

Committee

Avandia Anti-diabetics 06 Jul 10 6 Jul: Shares likely to remain volatile ahead of FDA

meetings on 13-14 July to review cardiovascular

safety issues for Avandia.

+3% +2,229

Top 15 Total +48,996

Total Events Positively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2010 +366,102

Source: EvaluatePharma®'s EventAnalyzer (25 MAY 2011)

Crestor Ruling Largest Positive Event in 2010

The analysis below highlights the top 15 product events which positively impacted shareholder value on the day of announcement (measured by

change in market capitalization) in 2010. The largest event was a US court ruling on Crestor, which removed the threat of generics prior to 2016.

This event initially added $5.8bn in value, +9% share price gain, to AstraZeneca. The approval of Prolia (denosumab) was the second biggest

event, adding $5.1bn to the market cap. of Amgen, reflecting a 11% share price gain.

Note: EvaluatePharma®'s EventAnalyzer contains a back catalogue of events which had the greatest impact on company valuations dating back

to December 2007. Events can be viewed by Company, Product, Therapy Area and Peer Group to see instantly the impact of events on company

valuation and the news flow driving share price movement. Events are categorized into 100 unique Event Type classifications, allowing you to

track the market impact of key types of news flow (e.g. regulatory approvals, financial results, patent litigation, broker sentiment and competitor

announcements, etc).


Key Product Events Negatively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2010 New Analysis

% Share Market Cap

Company Event Type Product Therapy Area Date Commentary on Share Price Change Price Change Change

1 Roche Phase III Trial

Results

Avastin Anti-neoplastic MAbs 12 Mar 10 12 Mar: Avastin (bevacizumab) fails to meet its

primary phase III endpoint of extending overall

survival in prostate cancer patients, compared with

chemotherapy and prednisone alone.

-+3% -+4,724

2 Roche FDA Advisory

Committee

Avastin Anti-neoplastic MAbs 21 Jul 10 20 Jul [post market]: An FDA advisory panel votes 12-

1 in favour of revoking Avastin's approval for breast

cancer, stating that studies show insufficient benefit for

patients; final FDA decision due 17 Sep.

-+4% -+4,500

3 Teva Competitor

Announcement

Copaxone MS Therapies 23 Jul 10 23 Jul: Momenta Pharmaceuticals receives FDA

approval for its generic version of Sanofi' blood

thinner, Lovenox, raising fears that the FDA may soon

approve a generic version of Copaxone; Momenta

confirms in a conference call that it is working with the

FDA on its Copaxone application.

-+9% -+4,323

4 Merck & Co Pricing Issues Vytorin Anti-hyperlipidaemics 21 Apr 10 21 Apr: Bloomberg reports that UnitedHealth Group,

the US' biggest medical insurer by sales, plans to

double the amount it will charge for company’s

cholesterol pills, Vytorin and Zetia, from 1 Jul, raising

concerns that the move will deter patients from using

the medicines.

-+4% -+4,115

5 AstraZeneca Complete

Response Letter

Brilinta Platelet aggregation

inhibitors

17 Dec 10 16 Dec [post market]: Company receives an FDA

complete response letter for its heart drug, Brilinta,

requesting further analyses of phase III trial data, but

not additional clinical studies, potentially delaying US

approval of the drug by a further nine months.

-+6% -+4,023

6 Roche Phase III Trial

Results

Taspoglutide Anti-diabetics 18 Jun 10 18 Jun: Company announces the implementation of a

risk mitigation plan in its phase III programme for

diabetes drug, taspoglutide, following cases of

hypersensitivity in patients, leading to a potential delay

in filing of at least 12-18 months.

-+2% -+3,490

7 Pfizer Product

Suspended

Tanezumab Non-narcotic analgesics 24 Jun 10 23 Jun [post market]: Company suspends phase III

trials of its osteoarthritis drug, tanezumab, after some

patients taking the drug experienced a worsening of

their condition that required joint replacement surgery.

-+3% -+3,388

8 Sanofi New Company

Financial

Guidance

Lovenox Anti-coagulants 23 Jul 10 23 Jul: Company cuts its 2010 financial outlook after

Momenta Pharmaceuticals receives FDA approval for

its generic version of Lovenox.

-+4% -+3,323

9 Merck & Co Pricing Issues Vytorin Anti-hyperlipidaemics 22 Apr 10 Shares continue to fall after Bloomberg reported on 21

Apr that UnitedHealth Group, the US' biggest medical

insurer by sales, plans to double the amount it will

charge for Vytorin and Zetia from 1 Jul, raising

concerns that the move will deter patients from using

the medicines.

-+3% -+3,024

10 Pfizer FDA Filing Sutent Anti-angiogenics 13 May 10 13 May: Mylan files for FDA approval of its generic

version of Pfizer's cancer drug, Sutent, challenging

several patents on the drug which expire in 2021.

-+2% -+2,743

11 GlaxoSmithKline Safety Concerns Avandia Anti-diabetics 22 Feb 10 22 Feb: The FDA begins reviewing data on possible

heart risks linked to Avandia following the release of

FDA documents on 20 Feb which included a 2008

memo from FDA drug safety reviewers who

recommended withdrawing the drug from the US

market due to safety concerns.

-+3% -+2,713

12 Sanofi Side Effect Risk/

Negative Label

Lantus Anti-diabetics 18 Jun 10 18 Jun: A new study published in the Diabetes Care

journal suggests that company's diabetes drug, Lantus,

raises the risk of cancer versus other insulins.

-+3% -+2,707

13 Roche Side Effect Risk/

Negative Label

Avastin Anti-neoplastic MAbs 03 May 10 3 May: German newspaper Handelsblatt, states that

the company's cancer drug, Avastin, is only marginally

effective and has significant toxicity.

-+2% -+2,487

14 AstraZeneca Litigation Crestor Anti-hyperlipidaemics 30 Jun 10 Shares fall back slightly after rising 9% on 29 Jun after

a US court rules that the patent on Crestor is valid,

removing the threat of generic versions of the drug

entering the US market until the patent expires in 2016.

-+3% -+2,350

15 Novo Nordisk Competitor

Announcement

Novolin Anti-diabetics 18 Oct 10 18 Oct: Shares fall on news that Pfizer has signed a

deal with Biocon to sell its biosimilar versions of

insulin, which will compete with Novo's brands,

Novolin and Novolog.

-+5% -+2,343

Top 15 Total -+50,253

Total Events Positively Impacting Shareholder Value in 2010 -+321,620

Source: EvaluatePharma®'s EventAnalyzer (25 MAY 2011)

Avastin Hit by Double Setback in 2010

The analysis below highlights the largest 15 product events negatively impacting shareholder value on the day of announcement (measured by

change in market capitalization) in 2010. The largest two events both relate to Roche's Avastin, which saw its consensus forecast tumble over the

year following negative PIII results in prostate cancer and a negative opinion from an FDA Advisory Committee on breast cancer. Together these

events wiped $9.2bn off Roche's market cap., a 7% decline in its share price.

Note: EvaluatePharma®'s EventAnalyzer contains a back catalogue of events which had the greatest impact on company valuations dating back to

December 2007. Events can be viewed by Company, Product, Therapy Area and Peer Group to see instantly the impact of events on company

valuation and the news flow driving share price movement. Events are categorized into 100 unique Event Type classifications, allowing you to track

the market impact of key types of news flow (e.g. regulatory approvals, financial results, patent litigation, broker sentiment and competitor

announcements, etc).


Enterprise Value Analysis: 2009 to 2010

Top 20 Companies in 2010: Ranked by Enterprise Value (based on valuation on 31 DEC 10)

Company 2009 2010 % Growth 2009 2010 % Growth 2009 2010 Chg. (+/-)

1 Johnson & Johnson 171.0 158.5 -7% 63.92 61.85 -3% 1 1 -

2 Pfizer 166.6 156.4 -6% 17.83 17.51 -2% 3 2 +1

3 Novartis 115.6 149.8 +30% 52.48 58.95 +12% 6 3 +3

4 Roche 168.8 141.7 -16% 170.66 141.50 -17% 2 4 -2

5 Merck & Co 136.7 134.6 -2% 36.16 36.04 -0% 4 5 -1

6 GlaxoSmithKline 124.0 114.4 -8% 42.25 39.22 -10% 5 6 -1

7 Sanofi 105.5 85.3 -19% 39.27 32.23 -17% 7 7 -

8 Abbott Laboratories 89.1 85.0 -5% 53.15 47.47 -11% 8 8 -

9 Bayer 81.9 71.1 -13% 79.80 73.36 -10% 9 9 -

10 Novo Nordisk 38.6 61.3 +59% 63.85 112.57 +70% 17 10 +7

11 AstraZeneca 65.7 58.2 -11% 46.94 46.19 -4% 10 11 -1

12 Teva Pharmaceutical 53.0 52.4 -1% 55.81 52.13 -7% 12 12 -

13 Amgen 53.4 47.1 -12% 56.57 54.90 -3% 11 13 -2

14 Alcon 46.4 46.2 -1% 164.35 163.40 -1% 13 14 -1

15 Reckitt Benckiser 39.0 43.1 +10% 54.48 55.01 +1% 16 15 +1

16 Bristol-Myers Squibb 40.6 42.7 +5% 24.95 26.15 +5% 15 16 -1

17 Eli Lilly 42.1 40.6 -4% 34.72 35.04 +1% 14 17 -3

18 Baxter International 36.6 31.0 -15% 58.39 50.62 -13% 19 18 +1

19 Gilead Sciences 38.4 30.5 -21% 43.27 36.24 -16% 18 19 -1

20 Takeda 26.3 28.1 +7% 45.35 48.93 +8% 20 20 -

Total Top 20 1,639.3 1,577.7 -4% avg. -1%

Source: EvaluatePharma® (31 DEC 2010)

Enterprise Value ($bn) Share Price ($ ADR) Enterprise Value Ranking

Global Ranking on Enterprise Value in 2010

Source: EvaluatePharma® (31 DEC 2010)

$156bn$150bn

$142bn$135bn

$114bn

$85bn $85bn

$71bn

$158bn

$61bn

-3% -2%

+12%

-17%

-0%

-10% -11%

+70%

-17%-10%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jo

hn

son

&

Joh

nso

n

P

fize

r

N

ova

rtis

R

och

e

M

erc

k &

Co

G

laxo

Sm

ithK

line

S

an

ofi

A

bb

ott

La

bo

rato

rie

s

B

aye

r

N

ovo

No

rdis

k

Ma

rke

t C

ap

($

bn

)

-30%

-20%

-10%

+0%

+10%

+20%

+30%

+40%

+50%

+60%

+70%

+80%

Sh

are

Pri

ce

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

e (

%)

Johnson & Johnson Maintains No.1 Position in Enterprise Value Rankings in 2010

EvaluatePharma® found that despite losing 7% of its value in 2010 Johnson & Johnson retained its No.1 ranking in

terms of enterprise value in 2010, with a valuation of $159bn.

Novo Nordisk demonstrated an impressive 59% increase in enterprise value and 70% increase in share price

following approval of Victoza, positive pipeline developments for Degludec, clinical setbacks for potential

competitor taspoglutide and safety scares for Sanofi’s long-acting insulin, Lantus.

Roche's enterprise value fell 16% to $142bn, primarily on setbacks to Avastin and taspoglutide.


Net Income in 2010: Top 20 Companies

Net Income in 2010: Top 20 Companies

Company 2009 2010 % Growth 2009 2010 Chg. (+/-)

1 Pfizer* 14.2 18.0 +27% 28.4% 26.5% -1.9%

2 Johnson & Johnson 12.9 13.3 +3% 20.9% 21.6% +0.7%

3 Sanofi 12.0 12.2 +2% 29.4% 30.3% +0.9%

4 Novartis 9.5 11.8 +24% 21.0% 22.8% +1.9%

5 Merck & Co* 7.4 10.7 +45% 27.0% 23.3% -3.7%

6 Roche 9.8 10.5 +7% 21.7% 23.1% +1.4%

7 AstraZeneca 9.2 9.6 +5% 27.9% 29.0% +1.1%

8 GlaxoSmithKline 9.5 7.3 -23% 21.4% 16.7% -4.8%

9 Abbott Laboratories* 5.8 6.5 +12% 18.9% 18.5% -0.4%

10 Eli Lilly 4.9 5.2 +8% 22.2% 22.7% +0.5%

11 Amgen 4.9 4.9 +0% 33.5% 32.6% -0.9%

12 Bayer 4.2 4.6 +10% 9.6% 9.9% +0.2%

13 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries 3.0 4.1 +36% 21.8% 25.6% +3.9%

14 Bristol-Myers Squibb 3.6 3.7 +4% 19.1% 19.2% +0.0%

15 Gilead Sciences 2.7 3.1 +13% 38.8% 38.7% -0.2%

16 Takeda 3.9 2.9 -24% 24.5% 17.7% -6.8%

17 Reckitt Benckiser 2.2 2.6 +16% 18.3% 19.6% +1.4%

18 Novo Nordisk 2.0 2.6 +27% 21.1% 23.7% +2.6%

19 Baxter International 2.3 2.4 +2% 18.5% 18.2% -0.4%

20 Alcon 2.1 2.1 +2% 31.6% 29.0% -2.6%

Top 20 126.1 138.2 +10% 23.8% 23.4% Average


Net Income Normalised ($bn) Net Margin

Global Ranking on Net Income Normalised: Top 10 Companies


18.0

13.312.2 11.8

10.7 10.59.6

7.36.5

5.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Pfizer*

Johnson &

Johnson

Sanofi

Novart

is

Merc

k &

Co*

Roche

Astr

aZ

eneca

Gla

xoS

mithK

line

Abbott

Labora

tories*

Eli

Lill

y

Net

Inco

me (

$b

n)

Measure: Net Income Normalised

The accounting profit a company made during 2010, adjusted to exclude any one-off items, such as restructuring

charges and disposal gains/ losses.

*Abbott, Merck & Co and Pfizer based on reported data for 2009/10, not pro-forma.

Pfizer No. 1 in Terms of Net Income in 2010

EvaluatePharma® found that Pfizer reported the industry’s largest net income (normalised) in 2010, recording $18bn.

Of the Top 20 Teva recorded the largest improvement in net margin, up 3.9% to 25.6%, whilst benefiting from one of

the lowest tax rates. GlaxoSmithKline's net income (normalised) fell 23% to $7.3bn, with the net margin falling 4.8% to

16.7%.

+27%

+27%

+3% +2%

+7%

+12% -23%

+8%

+5% +45%

+45%

+13%

Net income normalised ($bn)

Growth rate %

+24%


Net Income Margin in 2010: Top 20 Companies

Net Margin in 2010: Top 20 Companies

Company 2009 2010 Chg. (+/-) 2009 2010 % Growth

1 PDL BioPharma 59.3% 48.8% -10.5% 189 168 -10.7%

2 Gilead Sciences 38.8% 38.7% -0.2% 2,724 3,073 +12.8%

3 Valeant Pharmaceuticals 47.1% 35.6% -11.5% 387 421 +8.9%

4 ViroPharma 23.8% 34.1% +10.4% 74 150 +103.2%

5 Amgen 33.5% 32.6% -0.9% 4,899 4,900 +0.0%

6 Celgene 32.2% 31.3% -0.9% 862 1,129 +30.9%

7 Sun Pharmaceutical 34.4% 31.2% -3.1% 283 374 +32.1%

8 Sanofi 29.4% 30.3% +0.9% 12,027 12,229 +1.7%

9 Warner Chilcott 33.1% 29.9% -3.2% 475 890 +87.2%

10 Forest Laboratories 26.0% 29.3% +3.4% 1,067 1,284 +20.3%

11 Alcon 31.6% 29.0% -2.6% 2,051 2,082 +1.5%

12 AstraZeneca 27.9% 29.0% +1.1% 9,159 9,642 +5.3%

13 Biogen Idec 26.8% 27.3% +0.5% 1,175 1,288 +9.6%

14 Pfizer 28.4% 26.5% -1.9% 14,202 17,983 +26.6%

15 Teva Pharmaceutical 21.8% 25.6% +3.9% 3,029 4,134 +36.5%

16 Alexion Pharmaceuticals 20.6% 25.0% +4.4% 80 135 +69.5%

17 Pharmstandard 27.0% 24.0% -3.0% 206 235 +14.0%

18 Endo Pharmaceuticals 22.9% 23.9% +1.0% 334 410 +22.8%

19 Novo Nordisk 21.1% 23.7% +2.6% 2,016 2,566 +27.3%

20 Gedeon Richter 19.1% 23.4% +4.3% 254 311 +22.4%


Net Margin Net Income - Normalised

Global Ranking on Net Income Margin in 2010: Top 10 Companies


49%

39%36% 34% 33% 31% 31% 30% 30% 29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

PD

L B

ioP

ha

rma

Gile

ad

Scie

nce

s

Va

lea

nt

Ph

arm

ace

utica

ls

Vir

oP

ha

rma

Am

ge

n

Ce

lge

ne

Su

n

Ph

arm

ace

utica

l

Sa

no

fi

Wa

rne

r C

hilc

ott

Fo

rest

La

bo

rato

rie

s

Net

Marg

in %

Measure: Net Margin

A ratio measuring company profitability based on net income normalised divided by total revenue.

Note: Analysis only includes companies with two consecutive years of profit and with 2010 profit in excess of $50m. Sun

Pharmaceutical is based on forecast data for 2010.

PDL BioPharma Continues to be the Most Profitable Pharma-Biotech Company in 2010

EvaluatePharma® found that for the third year running PDL BioPharma achieved the highest net income normalised margin at

48.8% in 2010, based on a net income of $168m and royalty revenues of $345m. PDL is the first company to spin-out its R&D

unit (Facet Biotech) and effectively be run as listed royalty company, with no active R&D operations.


2010: Top 50 Selling Products in the World

Products

Product Generic Name Company Pharmacological Class 2009 2010 % Growth Age (Yrs) Technology

1 Lipitor atorvastatin calcium Pfizer + Astellas + AlmirallStatin/ HMG CoA reductase

inhibitor12,669 11,968 -6% 14.3 Chiral chemistry

2 Plavix clopidogrel bisulfate BMS + Sanofi Platelet ADP antagonist 9,492 9,148 -4% 13.2 Small molecule chemistry


salmeterol xinafoateGSK + Almirall + Faes


& corticosteroid7,920 8,067 +2% 12.7 Small molecule chemistry

4 Enbrel etanercept Amgen + Pfizer + Takeda TNFa inhibitor 6,295 7,257 +15% 12.6 Recombinant product

5 Humira adalimumab Abbott + Eisai Anti-TNFa MAb 5,584 6,742 +21% 8.4 Monoclonal antibody

6 Remicade infliximabJ&J + Merck + Mitsubishi

TanabeAnti-TNFa MAb 5,923 6,520 +10% 12.8 Monoclonal antibody

7 Avastin bevacizumab Roche Anti-VEGF MAb 5,744 6,214 +8% 7.2 Monoclonal antibody

8 Diovan valsartan Novartis + Ipsen Angiotensin II antagonist 6,091 6,126 +1% 14.7 Small molecule chemistry

9 Rituxan rituximab Roche + Biogen Idec Anti-CD20 MAb 5,620 6,113 +9% 13.5 Monoclonal antibody

10 Crestor rosuvastatin calciumAstraZeneca + Shionogi +

Chiesi


inhibitor4,836 6,106 +26% 8.3 Small molecule chemistry

11 Seroquel quetiapine fumarate AstraZeneca + Astellas5-HT2 (serotonin) & dopamine

D2 antagonist5,121 5,611 +10% 13.7 Small molecule chemistry

12 Singulair montelukast sodium Merck + Kyorin + Sigma-Tau Leukotriene D4 antagonist 4,985 5,401 +8% 13.3 Small molecule chemistry

13 Herceptin trastuzumab Roche Anti-HER2 (ErbB-2) MAb 4,862 5,221 +7% 12.7 Monoclonal antibody

14 Zyprexa olanzapine Eli Lilly Atypical anti-psychotic 4,916 5,026 +2% 14.7 Small molecule chemistry

15 Nexium esomeprazole magnesium AstraZeneca Proton pump inhibitor (PPI) 4,959 4,969 +0% 10.8 Chiral chemistry

16 Lantus insulin glargine recombinant Sanofi Insulin 4,293 4,658 +9% 10.9 Recombinant product

17 Actos pioglitazone hydrochloride Takeda + Abbott PPAR gamma agonist 4,194 4,601 +10% 11.8 Small molecule chemistry

18 Epogen/Procrit/Eprex epoetin alfaAmgen + J&J + Kyowa Hakko

KirinErythropoietin 4,963 4,584 -8% 22.4 Recombinant product

19 Abilify aripiprazole Otsuka + BMS5-HT1A & D2 partial agonist &

5-HT2 receptor antagonist4,039 4,279 +6% 8.5 Small molecule chemistry

20 Gleevec/Glivec imatinib mesylate Novartis Tyrosine kinase inhibitor 3,944 4,265 +8% 10.0 Small molecule chemistry

21 Aricept donepezil hydrochloride Eisai + Pfizer Acetylcholinesterase inhibitor 3,913 3,814 -3% 14.3 Small molecule chemistry

22 Spirivatiotropium bromide

monohydrateBoehringer Ingelheim + Pfizer Muscarinic antagonist 3,351 3,799 +13% 9.0 Small molecule chemistry


(LMWH)4,241 3,724 -12% 23.4 Small molecule chemistry

24 Neulasta pegfilgrastim Amgen Colony stimulating factor 3,355 3,558 +6% 9.1 Recombinant product

25 Januvia/Janumet sitagliptin phosphate Merck + Ono + AlmirallDipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-

IV) inhibitor2,611 3,503 +34% 4.7 Small molecule chemistry

26 Cymbalta duloxetine hydrochloride Eli Lilly + Shionogi SNRI 3,075 3,491 +14% 6.8 Small molecule chemistry

27 Lexapro/Cipralex escitalopram oxalate Forest + Lundbeck + Others SSRI 3,403 3,467 +2% 9.2 Chiral chemistry

28 Copaxone glatiramer acetate Teva + Sanofi MS agent 2,826 3,300 +17% 14.4 Small molecule chemistry

29 Blopress/Atacand candesartan cilexetilTakeda + AstraZeneca +

AlmirallAngiotensin II antagonist 2,935 3,283 +12% 13.5 Small molecule chemistry

30 Micardis telmisartan Boehringer + Astellas + BayerAngiotensin II antagonist &

thiazide2,959 3,258 +10% 12.5 Small molecule chemistry

31 Avapro irbesartanSanofi + BMS + Dainippon +

ShionogiAngiotensin II antagonist 3,087 3,119 +1% 13.7 Small molecule chemistry

32 Lyrica pregabalin Pfizer + Eisai Alpha 2 delta ligand 2,840 3,077 +8% 6.7 Small molecule chemistry

33 Aranesp darbepoetin alfa Amgen + Kyowa Hakko Kirin Erythropoietin 2,930 2,974 +2% 9.9 Recombinant product

34 Lucentis ranibizumab Novartis + Roche Anti-VEGF MAb 2,338 2,935 +26% 4.9 Monoclonal antibody


tenofovirGilead Sciences NNRTI & NRTI 2,382 2,927 +23% 4.8 Small molecule chemistry

36 Taxotere docetaxel Sanofi Taxane 3,034 2,816 -7% 15.4 Plant extract

37 Symbicortbudesonide; formoterol

fumarate dihydrateAstraZeneca + Sigma-Tau


& corticosteroid2,309 2,760 +20% 10.7 Small molecule chemistry


disoproxil fumarateGilead + Torii NRTI 2,556 2,746 +7% 6.8 Small molecule chemistry

39 Celebrex celecoxib Pfizer + Astellas COX-2 inhibitor 2,575 2,668 +4% 12.3 Small molecule chemistry

40 Avonex interferon beta-1a Biogen Idec Interferon beta 2,323 2,518 +8% 15.0 Recombinant product

41 Human insulin & devices insulin recombinant human Novo Nordisk Insulin 2,488 2,502 +1% 88.2 Recombinant product

42 Benicar/Olmetec olmesartan medoxomil Daiichi Sankyo + Forest Angiotensin II antagonist 2,363 2,487 +5% 9.0 Small molecule chemistry

43 Revlimid lenalidomide Celgene Immunomodulator 1,706 2,469 +45% 5.4 Small molecule chemistry

44 Prevnar 13 pneumococcal vaccine Pfizer Pneumococcal vaccine - 2,416 n/m 1.4 Bioengineered vaccine

45 Zetia ezetimibe Merck & Co Cholesterol absorption inhibitor 2,413 2,297 -5% 8.5 Small molecule chemistry

46 Rebif interferon beta-1a Merck KGaA + Pfizer Interferon beta 2,142 2,214 +3% 13.4 Recombinant product

47 Alimta pemetrexed disodium Eli Lilly Thymidylate synthase inhibitor 1,706 2,209 +29% 7.2 Small molecule chemistry

48 Cozaar losartan potassium Merck + Sigma-Tau Angiotensin II antagonist 3,598 2,141 -41% 16.3 Small molecule chemistry

49 NovoRapid insulin aspart recombinant Novo Nordisk Insulin 1,825 2,120 +16% 11.7 Recombinant product

50 Humalog insulin lispro recombinant Eli Lilly Insulin 1,959 2,054 +5% 15.0 Recombinant product

Total 195,689 209,521 +7% 12.8


WW Product Sales ($bn)


Lipitor is World's Largest Selling Product in 2010

EvaluatePharma® found that global brand sales of Lipitor, primarily sold globally by Pfizer and co-marketed with Astellas in Japan, recorded sales of $12.0bn

in 2010, down 6% on $12.7bn in 2009.


2010: Top 50 Selling Products in the USA

USA Age Company

Product Generic Name Company Pharmacological Class 2009 2010 % Growth (Yrs) Strategy

1 Plavix clopidogrel bisulfateBristol-Myers Squibb +

SanofiPlatelet ADP antagonist 5,556 6,154 +11% 13.5 In-licensed

2 Lipitor atorvastatin calcium PfizerStatin/ HMG CoA reductase

inhibitor5,667 5,329 -6% 14.4 Company acquisition


salmeterol xinafoateGlaxoSmithKline


& corticosteroid4,057 4,026 -1% 10.8 Organic

4 Seroquel quetiapine fumarate AstraZeneca5-HT2 (serotonin) & dopamine

D2 antagonist3,416 3,747 +10% 13.7 Organic

5 Epogen/Procrit epoetin alfa Amgen + J&J Erythropoietin 3,827 3,594 -6% 22.0

6 Actos pioglitazone hydrochloride Takeda PPAR gamma agonist 3,207 3,582 +12% 11.9 Organic

7 Abilify aripiprazole Otsuka + BMS5-HT1A & D2 partial agonist &

5-HT2 receptor antagonist3,296 3,348 +2% 8.5 Organic

8 Enbrel etanercept Amgen + Pfizer TNFa inhibitor 3,283 3,304 +1% 12.6 Company acquisition

9 Singulair montelukast sodium Merck & Co Leukotriene D4 antagonist 3,044 3,219 +6% 13.3 Organic

10 Remicade infliximab Johnson & Johnson Anti-TNFa MAb 3,088 3,099 +0% 12.8 Company acquisition

11 Avastin bevacizumab Roche Anti-VEGF MAb 3,061 3,068 +0% 7.2 Company acquisition

12 Rituxan rituximab Roche + Biogen Idec Anti-CD20 MAb 2,784 2,910 +5% 13.5 Company acquisition

13 Humira adalimumab Abbott Laboratories Anti-TNFa MAb 2,519 2,872 +14% 8.4 Company acquisition

14 Lantus insulin glargine recombinant Sanofi Insulin 2,661 2,832 +6% 11.1 Company acquisition

15 Cymbalta duloxetine hydrochloride Eli Lilly SNRI 2,552 2,772 +9% 6.8 Organic

16 Nexium esomeprazole magnesium AstraZeneca Proton pump inhibitor (PPI) 2,835 2,695 -5% 10.3 Organic

17 Neulasta pegfilgrastim Amgen Colony stimulating factor 2,527 2,654 +5% 9.3 Joint venture

18 Crestor rosuvastatin calcium AstraZenecaStatin/ HMG CoA reductase

inhibitor2,100 2,640 +26% 7.8 In-licensed

19 Diovan valsartan Novartis Angiotensin II antagonist 2,492 2,520 +1% 14.4 Organic

20 Zyprexa olanzapine Eli Lilly Atypical anti-psychotic 2,332 2,496 +7% 14.7 Organic

21 Lexapro escitalopram oxalate Forest Laboratories SSRI 2,270 2,300 +1% 8.8 In-licensed

22 Copaxone glatiramer acetateTeva Pharmaceutical

IndustriesMS agent 1,917 2,287 +19% 14.4 In-licensed

23 Januvia/Janumet sitagliptin phosphate Merck & CoDipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-

IV) inhibitor1,876 2,139 +14% 4.6 Company acquisition


(LMWH)2,539 1,910 -25% 18.2 Company acquisition


tenofovirGilead Sciences NNRTI & NRTI 1,646 1,909 +16% 4.9 Joint venture

26 OxyContin oxycodone hydrochloride Purdue Pharma Opioid agonist 2,895 1,800 -38% 15.5 Organic

27 Aricept donepezil hydrochloride Eisai Acetylcholinesterase inhibitor 2,099 1,795 -15% 14.5 Organic

28 Spirivatiotropium bromide

monohydrateBoehringer Ingelheim + Pfizer Muscarinic antagonist 1,518 1,766 +16% 7.3 Organic

29 Prevnar 13 pneumococcal vaccine Pfizer Pneumococcal vaccine - 1,761 n/m 1.2 Company acquisition

30 Celebrex celecoxib Pfizer COX-2 inhibitor 1,697 1,580 -7% 12.4 Company acquisition

31 Herceptin trastuzumab Roche Anti-HER2 (ErbB-2) MAb 1,446 1,530 +6% 12.7 Company acquisition

32 Avonex interferon beta-1a Biogen Idec Interferon beta 1,406 1,492 +6% 15.0 Organic

33 Revlimid lenalidomide Celgene Immunomodulator 1,039 1,433 +38% 5.4 Organic

34 Lyrica pregabalin Pfizer Alpha 2 delta ligand 1,504 1,424 -5% 6.4 Company acquisition

35 Lucentis ranibizumab Roche Anti-VEGF MAb 1,106 1,402 +27% 4.9 Company acquisition

36 Levaquin levofloxacin Johnson & Johnson Quinolone 1,478 1,312 -11% 14.4 In-licensed


disoproxil fumarateGilead Sciences NRTI 1,178 1,309 +11% 6.8 Company acquisition

38 Namenda memantine hydrochloride Forest Laboratories NMDA antagonist 1,115 1,300 +17% 7.6 In-licensed

39 Gleevec/Glivec imatinib mesylate Novartis Tyrosine kinase inhibitor 1,088 1,285 +18% 10.0 Organic

40 Zetia ezetimibe Merck & Co (SGP) Cholesterol absorption inhibitor 1,264 1,227 -3% 8.6 Company acquisition

41 Effexor venlafaxine hydrochloride Pfizer (Wyeth) SNRI 2,398 1,226 -49% 17.4 Company acquisition

42 Humalog insulin lispro recombinant Eli Lilly Insulin 1,208 1,222 +1% 15.0 Organic

43 Aranesp darbepoetin alfa Amgen Erythropoietin 1,251 1,103 -12% 9.7 Joint venture

44 Vytorin ezetimibe; simvastatin Merck & Co (SGP)


inhibitor & cholesterol

absorption inhibitor

1,230 1,077 -12% 6.8 Company acquisition

45 Provigil modafinil Cephalon Anti-narcoleptic 961 1,060 +10% 12.4 Company acquisition

46 Taxotere docetaxel Sanofi Taxane 1,153 1,043 -10% 15.0 Company acquisition

47 Viagra sildenafil citrate PfizerPhosphodiesterase V (PDE5)

inhibitor962 992 +3% 13.2 Organic

48 TriCor fenofibrate Abbott Laboratories Fibrate 1,108 984 -11% 9.7 Company acquisition

49 Alimta pemetrexed disodium Eli Lilly Thymidylate synthase inhibitor 816 957 +17% 7.3 In-licensed

50 Premarin estrogens, conjugated Pfizer (Wyeth) Oestrogen agonist 1,046 949 -9% 69.1 Company acquisition

Total 107,517 110,434 +3% 12.1


USA Product Sales ($bn)


EvaluatePharma® endeavours to treat the sales from patent protected new formulations of existing products as distinct entities where possible. Epogen/ Neulasta/

Aranesp developed via Kirin-Amgen joint venture.

Plavix Overtakes Lipitor to become USA No. 1

EvaluatePharma® found that sales of Plavix (clopidogrel), co-promoted by BMS and Sanofi in the US, expanded 11% to $6.2bn, making it the biggest product in the

US in 2010. Conversely the biggest product in 2009, Pfizer's cholesterol lowering treatment, Lipitor, fell 6% in the USA, with 2010 sales of $5.3bn. The patents on

both Plavix and Lipitor are set to expire in November 2011.




33

About EvaluatePharma®

EvaluatePharma® offers a unique commercial perspective on the pharma and biotech business, in a user-

friendly online subscription service. For industry insiders and the investment sector, EvaluatePharma®

supports value-enhancing business decisions with proprietary insight into the commercial and financial

prospects of the pharma and biotech industry.

EvaluatePharma®

� Product consensus forecasts to 2016, compiled from reports published by leading equity analysts

� Comprehensive pharmaceutical market analysis of listed and companies

� In-depth company financial data, including P&L, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow, Shareholder Returns,

and Financial Ratios, with five-year forecasts

� Historic sales data drawn from the most complete and reliable sources of industry data – the

reporting companies themselves

� Dynamic market sizing and benchmarking

� Peer Group Analyzer and forecast trends

� New – Sales by Indication to 2016

� New – Partnering opportunities

� New – Clinical Trials analysis

� New – Venture Finance coverage

� New – Epidemiology data, reported by indication and by country; country pages now include

economic and healthcare data sourced from the World Bank

EvaluatePharma® Alpha

EvaluatePharma® Alpha is a cutting-edge analysis and intelligence service for the pharma and biotech

sector, helping clients to quantify market events and evaluate their impact on the valuation of products,

portfolios and companies.

� Global coverage of over 3,500 consensus based product NPVs linked to share price and company

valuation

� Interactive NPV Analyzer with full transparency and multiple inputs for each product

� Real time analysis with email alerts and share prices updated daily in line with NPV movements

� Calendar of Events an unrivalled tracking tool on key events set to impact product and company

valuations

� Daily news commentary and analysis from EP Vantage with key opinion leader insight and

proprietary quantitative analysis



34

EvaluatePharma – Europe

EvaluatePharma Ltd., 11-29 Fashion St., London, E1 6PX

United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)20 7377 0800

Fax: +44 (0)20 7539 1801

EvaluatePharma – North America

EvaluatePharma USA, Inc., 15 Broad Street, Suite 401

Boston, MA 02109, USA

Tel: 1-617-573-9450

Any enquiries about the report should be addressed to: [email protected]

www.evaluatepharma.com

Disclaimer

This report may not be relent, resold, hired out or otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form of

binding or cover other than that in which it is published, without the prior consent of EvaluatePharma Ltd.

While all reasonable steps have been taken to ensure that the data presented are accurate,

EvaluatePharma Ltd cannot accept responsibility for errors or omissions. Neither does EvaluatePharma

Ltd warrant the accuracy, merchantability or fitness of use for a particular purpose of the data.

world preview 2016-evaluatepharma

Documents