world energy outlook a summary of our future energy needs anna trego
TRANSCRIPT
World Energy Outlook
A summary of our future energy needs
Anna Tregowww.industrial-energy.lbl.gov
Three things you should know…
• Models predict fluctuations in the global energy system
• Energy prices increase, affecting the global economy
• Despite new policies, energy system remains unstable
www.energyburrito.comInternational Energy Agency, 2012
Global Energy Consumption
Overall increase in global energy leading to a projected 3.6°C increase in global temperatures. The decrease in energy consumption from OECD countries does not compensate for increases from these emerging economies. International Energy Agency, November 2012
Oil & Gas Production in the US
There will be an overall increase in unconventional oil and gas production in the US. By around 2020, the US will be producing enough energy to become self-sustainable. International Energy Agency, November 2012
Iraq Oil Production and Exports
Iraq will become a leader in oil production and its exports to Asian emerging economies will increase. International Energy Agency, November 2012
Destinations of Middle Eastern Oil
China and India become the major consumers of Middle Eastern oil while other countries take a back seat to these exports. International Energy Agency, November 2012
Gas Imports and Exports
Fluctuating gas trade routes: Centralized around Asian countries.
International Energy Agency, November 2012
Energy Dependency
Oil and gas import dependency increases for most other countries, with the US going against the flow and becoming more self-sufficient.
International Energy Agency, November 2012
Power Generation
International Energy Agency, November 2012
Nuclear and coal power generation decrease in some countries and increase in others. Renewable energy generation increases across the board.
Water Use Distribution
International Energy Agency, November 2012
Energy generated from coal uses a large amount of water, so countries that will be increasing coal use will also be increasing their water use.
Electricity Pricing, 2035
There are expected to be major variations in electricity prices with the EU and Japan increasing from OECD 2011 averages. International Energy Agency, November 2012
Just a reminder…• Models predict
fluctuations in the global energy system
• Energy prices increase, affecting the global economy
• Despite new policies, energy system remains unstable
International Energy Agency, 2012
• New sources of oil/gas from US and Iraq, increase in renewable and shift away from coal/nuclear in some countries
• Linkages between energy sectors, price shifting, and center of trade transitioning to Asia
• Increase in water use, many people without electricity, total increase in energy use
References
International Energy Agency (2012) World Energy Outlook 2012: Executive Summary, Paris: OECD/IEA. International Energy Agency (November 2012) World Energy Outlook 2012: Presentation to the Press [PowerPoint Slides], Presented in London.