WORLD DRUG REPORT2007AcknowledgementsThis report was produced in the Research and Analysis Section of UNODC, under the supervision of SandeepChawla and Thibault le Pichon and benefited from the work and expertise of many UNODC staff around theworld.Core team: Coen Bussink, Anja Korenblik and Martin Raithelhuber (coca, opium and cannabis production dataand maps), Suzanne Kunnen (design and desktop publishing), Kristina Kuttnig (design and desktop publishing),TheodoreLeggett(Chapter2),ArunaNathwani(statisticalassistanceandmaps), ThomasPietschmann(trendanalysisandstatistics),WolfgangRhomberg(databasemanagementandcoordination),AliSaadeddin(dataentry), Jennifer Sarvary (editorial assistance), and Melissa Tullis (coordination and global trend overview).UNODC reiterates its appreciation and gratitude to Member States for the reports and information that providedthe basis of this edition of the World Drug Report as well as to the International Narcotics Control Board (INCB)and the European Monitoring Centre on Drugs and Drugs Addiction (EMCDDA).UNODCwouldalsoliketothanktheGovernmentofSwedenforitscontinuedfinancialsupporttothispublication. Cover2_acknowledgement_06-07-07:Cover2_acknowledgement_30-05-07.qxd06/07/200711:31Page 1WORLD DRUG REPORT2007The boundaries, names and designations used in all maps in this book do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.This publication has not been formally edited.United Nations PublicationSales No. E. 07.XI.5ISBN 978-92-1-148222-5Preface. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3Explanatory notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71. TRENDS IN WORLD DRUG MARKETS1.1 Overview1.1.1 Global evolution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .251.1.2 Global outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .351.2 Opium / Heroin market1.2.1 Summary trend / overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .371.2.2Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .381.2.3Trafficking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .451.2.4Abuse. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .551.3 Coca / Cocaine market1.3.1 Summary trend / overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .631.3.2Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .641.3.3Trafficking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .701.3.4Abuse. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .821.4Cannabis market1.4.1 Summary trend / overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .951.4.2Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .961.4.3Trafficking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1051.4.4Abuse. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1141.5 Amphetamine-type stimulants market1.5.1 Summary trend / overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1231.5.2Production. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1241.5.3Trafficking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1341.5.4Abuse. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1502. INVISIBLE EMPIRE OR INVISIBLE HAND? ORGANIZED CRIME AND TRANSNATIONAL DRUG TRAFFICKING2.1Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1692.2 Assessing the degree of organization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1712.3 Cocaine via Central America to the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1742.4 Heroin via Central Asia to the Russian Federation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .182 2.5 Tracking Trafficking. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .189Contents3. STATISTICAL ANNEX3.1 Production3.1.1 Afghanistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1953.1.2 Bolivia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2013.1.3 Colombia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2053.1.4 Lao PDR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2093.1.5 Myanmar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2123.1.6 Peru . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2173.2 Seizures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2213.3 Seizures of illict laboratories. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2223.4 Prices3.4.1 Opiates: Wholesale, street prices and purity levels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2233.4.2 Cocaine: Wholesale, street prices and purity levels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2283.4.3 Cannabis: Wholesale, street prices and purity levels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2323.4.4 Amphetamine-type stimulants: Wholesale, street prices and purity levels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2373.5 Consumption3.5.1 Annual Prevalence3.5.1.1 Opiates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2413.5.1.2 Cocaine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2433.5.1.3 Cannabis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2443.5.1.4 Amphetamine-type stimulants (excluding ecstasy). . . . . . . . . . .2463.5.1.5 Ecstasy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2483.5.2. Treatment Demand3.5.2.1 Primary drugs of abuse among persons treatedfor drug problems in Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2493.5.2.2 Primary drugs of abuse among persons treated for drug problems in America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2503.5.2.3 Primary drugs of abuse among persons treated for drug problems in Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2513.5.2.4 Primary drugs of abuse among persons treated for drug problems in Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2523.5.2.5 Primary drugs of abuse among persons treated for drug problems in Oceania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2534. METHODOLOGY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2571Something new and significant is going on in the world drugs market. In last year's World Drug Report we made theargument that drug control is working and the world drug problem is being contained. This 2007 Report providesfurther robust evidence of this trend. For almost every kind of illicit drug - cocaine, heroin, cannabis and amphet-amine-type stimulants (ATS) - there are signs of overall stability, whether we speak of cultivation, production or con-sumption. Hopefully, within the next few years evidence to support this claim will become statistically and logicallyincontrovertible. Thisdoesnotmeanthatthedrugproblemhasbeensolvedorthatwecanbecomecomplacent.Noristhegoodnews universal. Progress made in some areas is often offset by negative trends elsewhere. But overall, we seem to havereached a point where the world drug situation has stabilized and been brought under control. The first encouraging sign is that coca cultivation in the Andean countries continues to fall, driven by significantdeclines in Colombia. Global demand for cocaine has also stabilized, although the decline in the United States isoffsetbyalarmingincreasesinsomeEuropeancountries.Secondly, theproductionandconsumptionofATShaslevelled off, with a clear downward trend in North America and, to a lesser degree, Europe.Thirdly, the health warn-ings on higher potency cannabis, delivered in past World Drug Reports, appear to be getting through. For the firsttimeinyears,wedonotseeanupwardtrendintheglobalproductionandconsumptionofcannabis.Fourthly,opium production, while significant, is now highly concentrated in Afghanistan's southern provinces. Indeed, theHelmand province is on the verge of becoming the world's biggest drug supplier, with the dubious distinction ofcultivating more drugs than entire countries such as Myanmar, Morocco or even Colombia. Curing Helmand of itsdrug and insurgency cancer will rid the world of the most dangerous source of its most dangerous narcotic, and goa long way to bringing security to the region. Another source of good news is that drug law enforcement has improved: almost half of all cocaine produced is nowbeing intercepted (up from 24% in 1999) and more than a quarter of all heroin (against 15% in 1999). These positive developments are not attributable to a single specific factor: drug trends respond to long-term policyand to changes in society at large, not to individual causes. Yet chronologically there is a clear correlation betweenUN-led drug control efforts and the current recession in the drug economy. In other words, the world seems to betaking seriously the commitment made at a UN General Assembly Special Session in 1998 to take enhanced actionto reduce both the illicit supply of, and the demand for drugs by 2008. The situation, while stable, is fragile and could be undone by any number of factors. More importantly, since thereare still 25 million problem drug users in the world, there is plenty of room for improvement.Supply: Southeast Asia is closing a tragic chapter that has blighted the Golden Triangle for decades - the region isnow almost opium free. Yet it is not free of poverty and therefore farmers remain vulnerable to the temptations ofillicit incomes. Much more assistance - for alternative crops and also for viable income substitution - is needed toensure that drug-free development is sustained in the greater Mekong basin. The same logic applies in Afghanistanand the Andean countries. Rewarding licit rural activity and promoting development will encourage farmers to vol-untarilygiveuptheirillicitcropsinawaythatwillofferthembrighter,andlonger-lastingprospectsthanforcederadication.The general political context also shapes drug supply. Drug cultivation thrives on instability, corruption and poorgovernance. Theworld'sbiggestdrugproducingcentresareinregionsbeyondthecontrolofthecentralgovern-ment, like South Afghanistan, South-West Colombia and East Myanmar. Until government control, democracy andthe rule of law are restored, these regions will remain nests of insurgency and drug production - and represent thebiggest challenge to containment. Preface2Trafficking: Organized crime seeks the path of least resistance. Many trafficking routes traverse zones of instability,and where corruption negates interdiction. The challenge is to block these routes by increasing law enforcement,stopping the diversion of precursor chemicals, improving the integrity of the judicial system, and - not least -- fight-ing corruption among officials at borders and in local administrations. Otherwise, as in parts of Central America,the Caribbean and the Balkans, countries will be caught in the crossfire of drug-related crime. As this Report shows,there are warning signs that Africa is also under attack, targeted by cocaine traffickers from the West (Colombia)and heroin smugglers in the East (Afghanistan). This threat needs to be addressed quickly to stamp out drug-relatedcrime, money-laundering and corruption, and to prevent the spread of drug use that could cause havoc across a con-tinent already plagued by other tragedies. All over the world, regional cooperation is essential. In 2007, UNODC looks forward to the opening of regionalcounter-narcotic information-sharing centres in Central Asia and the Gulf. The time is ripe to consider the creationof a similar mechanism to facilitate drug-related intelligence cooperation in South East Asia.Seizing cannabis and ATS is more difficult because of short supply routes. In many cases, these drugs are producedand consumed in the same country, even the same town, making them available, affordable, and in some cases pub-licly acceptable.That suggests that for these, as for other types of controlled substances, the greatest challenge is toraise awareness about the damage to health and reduce demand. Demand: To move beyond containment and to reduce the risk of drugs to public health and public security, moreattention must be paid to drug prevention and treatment. While much of this 2007 Report looks at world drug trendsin terms of cultivation, production, seizures and prices, these are just the symptoms. If the drug problem is to bereduced in the longer term, there must be more intervention at the level of consumption, to treat the problem atits source - the drug users. Drugaddictionisanillnessthatcanbepreventedandtreated.Earlydetection,greaterpreventionefforts,bettertreatment of addiction, and integration of drug treatment into public health and social services programs, can freepeople from the nightmare of addiction. Treating those who suffer from drugs is an investment in the health of ournations as much as treating HIV, diabetes or TB.Also, because drugs are a health problem that tends to turn into a social problem, their abuse must be addressed byall of society. As parents, teachers, co-workers and good citizens we must help people take control of their lives, ratherthan have them controlled by drugs.Looking forward, while containment of the drug problem seems to be a reality, further changes are needed to createaparadigmshift.Thisisasharedresponsibility:internationally -betweenproducingandconsumingstates;regionally - among neighbouring countries; and nationally - among all sectors of society. Let us each assume our shareof that responsibility, in order to improve both public health and public security across the world.Antonio Maria CostaExecutive DirectorUnited Nations Office on Drugs and Crime3The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) is a global leader in the multilateral effort againstillicit drugs and international crime. The three pillars of its work programme are: Research and analytical work to increase knowledge and understanding of drugs and crime issues and expand the evidence-base for policy and operational decisions; Normative work to assist States in the ratification and implementation of the international treaties, the development of domestic legislation on drugs, crime and terrorism, and the provision of secretariat and substantive services to the treaty-based and governing bodies; and Field-based technical cooperation projects to enhance the capacity of Member States to counteract illicit drugs, crime and terrorism.Recognizing the importance of comprehensive, factual and objective information in the field of internationaldrugcontrol,theGeneralAssemblyentrustedUNODCwiththemandatetopublish"comprehensiveandbalancedinformationabouttheworlddrugproblem"in1998.UNODChaspublishedsuchassessmentsannually since 1999.Thisyear,theReporthasbeenreworkedintoaone-volumeformat. ThedetailedseizurestableswhichwerepreviouslypresentedinthesecondsectionofVolumeIIunderthetitle"Seizures,"arenowavailableonUNODC's website. A PDF file containing the detailed seizure tables is available for review and downloadingat: www.unodc.org/unodc/en/world_drug_report.html (thesamelocationastheReport).Thedetailedseizuretables are also available on CD by request. CDs can be ordered via the following email address: RAS@unodc.orgThe Report continues to provide trend analysis of the global situation and of the four main drug markets in itsfirst section. In addition, this years Report contains an in depth look into the relationship between translationalorganised crime and drug trafficking. The report also contains a small statistical annex which provides detail onproduction,pricesandconsumption. TheReport'scoverageremainscomprehensiveandittriestogivethereader a complete picture of theworld's drug problem. As in previous years, the Report is based on data obtained primarily from the Annual Reports Questionnaire(ARQ) sent by Governments to UNODC in 2006, supplemented by other sources when necessary and whereavailable. Twoofthemainlimitationshereinare:(i)thatARQreportingisnotsystematicenough,bothintermsofnumberofcountriesrespondingandofcontent,and(ii)thatmostcountrieslacktheadequatemonitoring systems required to produce reliable, comprehensive and internationally comparable data. Nationalmonitoring systems are, however, improving and UNODC has contributed to this process.ElectroniccopiesoftheWorldDrugReport2007 reportcanbeaccessedviatheUNODCwebsiteatwww.unodc.org. Comments and feedback on the report can be sent to: worlddrugreport@unodc.org.Introduction5This report has been reproduced without formal editing.The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression ofanyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartoftheSecretariatoftheUnitedNationsconcerningthelegalstatusofanycountry, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Countries and areas are referred to by the names that were in official use at the time the relevant data were collected.In various sections, this report refers to a number of regional designations. These are not official designations. Theyaredefinedasfollows: WestandCentralEurope:EU25plusEFTAplusSanMarinoandAndorra;EastEurope:EuropeanCIScountries;SoutheastEurope:Turkeyandthenon-EUBalkancountries;NorthAmerica:Canada,Mexico and United States of America.The following abbreviations have been used in this report:ARQAnnual reports questionnaireATSAmphetamine-type stimulantsCICADInter-American Drug Abuse Control CommissionCIS Commonwealth of Independent StatesDEAUnited States of America, Drug Enforcement AdministrationDELTA Database on Estimates and Long Term Trend AnalysisDUMA Drug Use Monitoring in AustraliaEMCDDAEuropean Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug AddictionESPAD European School Survey Project on Alcohol and other DrugsF.O. UNODC Field OfficeGovt. GovernmentICMP UNODC Global Illicit Crop Monitoring ProgrammeINCB International Narcotics Control BoardINCSR United States of America, International Narcotics Control Strategy ReportInterpolInternational Criminal Police OrganizationLSDlysergic acid diethylamideNAPOL National PolicePCPphencyclidineTHCtetrahydrocannabinolUNAIDS Joint and Co-sponsored United Nations Programme on Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency SyndromeUNODCUnited Nations Office on Drugs and CrimeWCO World Customs Organization WHOWorld Health OrganizationWeights and measurementsu. Unitlt. Litrekg Kilogramha Hectaremt Metric tonExplanatory notes71.1 OverviewEvolution of the world drug problemTheworldsdrugproblemisbeingcontained.In2005/06, the global markets for the main illicit drugs theopiates,cocaine,cannabis,andamphetamine-typestimulantsremainedlargelystable.Particularlynotable is the stabilisation seen in the cannabis market,whichhadbeenexpandingrapidlyforsometime.Inline with a long-term trend, the share of total drug pro-ductionthatisseizedbylawenforcementhasalsoincreased some 42 per cent of global cocaine produc-tion and 26 per cent of global heroin production nevermade it to consumers.Of course, within this aggregated picture, there remainsconsiderable variation. Most notably, heroin productioncontinued to expand in the conflict-ridden provinces ofsouthernAfghanistan.Whileglobalheroinconsump-tion does not appear to be growing, the impact of thissurge in supply needs to be monitored carefully.How is drug production changing?Most of the worlds drug markets start with the farmer.Unlikeothercrops,however,thecultivationofopiumpoppy, coca leaf and cannabis take place under threat oferadication,andsothelocationandthenumberofhectarestilledvarysubstantiallyfromyeartoyear.UNODC,incooperationwiththerelevantnationalauthorities,conductsdrugcropmonitoringsurveysinall of the worlds major opium poppy and coca produc-ingcountries.Changesinthenumberandlocationofhectaresundercultivation,aswellascropyields,canthus be tracked with some precision.Around92percentoftheworldsheroincomesfrompoppiesgrowninAfghanistan.DespiteamassiveincreaseinopiumpoppycultivationinAfghanistanin2006, the global area under poppy was actually 10 percent lower than in 2000. This decline was mainly due tosustained success in reducing cultivation in South-EastAsia. Poppy cultivation in the Golden Triangle has fallenby some 80 per cent since 2000.Most of the worlds cocaine comes from coca leaf culti-vatedinColombia,PeruandBolivia.Theglobalareaundercocacultivationfellby29percenttosome156,900hectaresbetween2000-2006,largelyduetoreductionsofcocacultivationinColombia. TheareasundercocacultivationinPeruandBoliviaincreasedoverthisperiodbutremainedsignificantlybelowthelevels reported a decade earlier. As discussed in last years World Drug Report, it is impos-sibletoaccuratelyestimatethelocationandtotalnumber of hectares under cannabis, because it is grownin at least 172 countries, often in small plots by the usersthemselves. The one country where reliable estimates areavailable is Morocco, the source of about 70 per cent ofthehashishconsumedinEurope.UNODCandtheGovernmentofMoroccohavebeenmonitoringlarge-scale hashish production since 2003. Based on these sur-veys,cannabiscultivationinMoroccohasdeclinedinrecentyears,fromapeakof134,000hectaresin2003to just 76,400 hectares in 2005. Outside Morocco, therehave been few national or regional studies of the extentof cannabis cultivation. There is an important distinction between the extent ofdrugcropcultivationandtheextentofdrugproduc-tion,however.Cropyieldscanbeaffectedbyweatherconditionsandchangesinproductiontechnology,amongotherthings.Asaresult,long-termdeclinesincultivated area do not necessarily translate into declinesin total production. Opium production in Afghanistanrose almost 50 per cent in 2006, bringing gobal heroinproductiontoanewrecordhighof606mtin2006,exceeding the previous high (576 mt in 1999) by 5 percent. Similarly, the success in the reduction of coca cul-tivation from 2000 to 2006 has not led to a commen-surate decline in cocaine production, apparently due toimprovements in coca cultivation and cocaine produc-tiontechnology.Cocaineproductionhasremainedlargely stable over the last few years, estimated at 984 mtin 2006.Amphetamine-type stimulants are manufactured illicitlyusing legally-produced precursors, and thus global pro-duction can only be estimated indirectly. This produc-tion appears to be stable, however, at about 480 mt inExecutive Summary1. Trends in World Drug Markets2005.Atthesametime,seizuresofATSlabsandpre-cursors declined dramatically, likely a result of improvedprecursor control and significant reductions in domes-ticproductionoperationsinkeymarketssuchastheUSA.How is drug interdiction changing?An increasingly large share of the worlds drug supply isbeing seized by law enforcement agencies each year. In2005, 42 per cent of global cocaine production and 26per cent of global heroin production was intercepted bythe authorities. With regard to heroin, this means thatthe amount available to the consumer in 2005 was actu-ally 5 per cent lower than in 2000 and 8 per cent lowerthanadecadebefore.Cocaineseizureshaveincreasedevenmoremarkedly,upfromjust24percentofpro-ductionin2000.Improvedcooperationamonglawenforcement bodies has led to improved seizures close tothe source. In fact, 58 per cent of global cocaine seizurestook place in South America, the Caribbean and Cen-tral America in 2005.In the last decade, the most significant seizure trend hasbeen the increase in the number of seizures of amphet-amine-type stimulants (ATS). These seizures peaked in2000 at 49 mt, before dropping over the following fouryears. In 2005, they began to rise again, to 43 mt.8World Drug Report 200701002003004005006007008001995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Metric tons0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.019851987198919911993199519971999200120032005Metric ton equivalentsOpiumMorphine Heroin4.82.17.95.910.939.260.2106.90.65.312.917.232.058.697.5342.2752.3211.7579.41.40 200 400 600 800 1,000MethaqualoneDepressants Ecstasy AmphetamineMethamphetamineMorphineHeroinKhatOpiumCocaine Coca leafMetric tonsequivalents 2004 20051,2073,209Global drug seizures, excluding cannabis, 2004-2005Global opiate seizures, expressed in heroin equivalents, by substance, 1985-2005World cocaine seizures, 1995-2005Herbalcannabisseizures,incontrast,weredownin2005,atrendseenacrosscontinents.Thereasonsforthisdeclineareduetoincreasederadicationandareoccurring in the context of stabilised demand and maybe related to decreased transnational trafficking due toagrowingrelianceondomesticcultivation.Cannabisresinseizureswerealsodown,butthiscanbedirectlytied to the decline in hashish production in Morocco.How is drug use changing?While a large share of the worlds population uses illicitdrugseachyear(about5percentofthepopulationbetweentheagesof15and64),onlyasmallshareofthesecanbeconsideredproblemdrugusers(0.6%).About 200 million people use drugs each year globally.Unsurprisingly,themainproblemdrugsatthegloballevelcontinuetobetheopiates(notablyheroin),fol-lowed by cocaine. For most of Europe and Asia, opiatescontinuedtobethemainproblemdrug;inSouth-America,drugrelatedtreatmentdemandcontinuedtobe mainly linked to the abuse of cocaine; and in Africa,the bulk of all treatment demand is linked to cannabis.9Executive SummaryWorld population age 15-64:4,177 million people (100%*)Problem drug use:age 15-64:25 million people (0.6%*)Monthly prevalence of drug use:110 million people (2.6%*)Annual prevalence of drug use:200 million people (4.8%*)Total world population:6,475 million people* in per cent of population age 15-64Non-drug using populationage 15-64:3,977 million people (95.2%*)Illegal drug use at the global level (2005/2006)CannabisAmphetamine-typestimulantsCocaine Opiatesof whichheroinAmphetamines Ecstasy(million people) 158.8 24.9 8.6 14.3 15.6 11.1in % of global population age 15-643.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%Extent of drug use (annual prevalence*) estimates 2005/6 (or latest year available)* Annual prevalence is a measure of the number/percentage of people who have consumed an illicit drug at least once in the 12 month-period preceding the assessment.1.2 Opium/Heroin MarketAtleastintheshort-term,conditionsintheworldsheroin markets will be determined by what happens insouthern Afghanistan, as the country was responsible for92 per cent of global opium production in 2006. For nootherdrugisproductionsoconcentratedinasinglearea.Thisconcentrationwenthandinhandwitharemarkablelong-termprogressineliminatingothersources of supply, principally in South-East Asia. Poppycultivation in South-East Asia is down by more than 85per cent over the last decade. Between 2005 and 2006alone,poppycultivationinSouthEastAsiadeclinedfrom 35,000 hectares to 24,000 hectares. The significance of the contraction in opium cultivationinMyanmarandLaoscannotbeoverstated.Althoughopium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan increased mas-sively in 2006, the global area under illicit poppy culti-vation was still 10 per cent lower in 2006 than in 2000,duetoreductioninSouth-EastAsia.Butdespitethereduction in the area under cultivation, potential heroinproductionisup,becauseAfghanfieldsaremorepro-ductive than fields in South-East Asia. In 2006, globalopium production soared to a new record high of 6,610mt, a 43 per cent increase over 2005. Undertheseconditions,withasurgeinsupplyandstable demand, a price decline would be expected nearthesource,butopiatepricesarenoteasytopredict,10World Drug Report 2007Main problem drugs (as reflected in treatment demand), 2005 (or latest year available)050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000199019921994199619982000200220042006HectaresAfghanistan MyanmarLao PDR Rest of the WorldGlobal opium poppy cultivation (hectares), 1990-2006because the global dynamics of this market are not wellunderstood.Despitethe49percentincreaseinpro-ductioninAfghanistanin2006,opiumpricesactuallyfell by just 17 per cent in the country. This could sug-gestthatthereissubstantialstockpiling,butthereislittle evidence as to where and how it is occurring.Inrecentyears,theworldheroinmarkethasbeendivided into three regional submarkets. Afghan opiateshavesuppliedthemarketsofneighbouringcountries,Europe, the Near and Middle East, and Africa. Opiatesproduced in South-East Asia have supplied the marketsof China and other South-East Asian countries, as wellasOceania.OpiatesproducedinLatinAmericasup-plied the North American market. However, it appearsthat cross-regional trafficking is gaining in importance.Forexample,thereareindicationsthatasmallbutincreasingproportionofopiatesfromAfghanistanarebeingtraffickedtoNorthAmerica,eitherviaeasternand western Africa, or via Europe. Overall,theconsumermarkethasremainedencourag-ingly stable, despite important increases in the countriesalongmajortraffickingroutes.CountriesexperiencinganincreaseinheroinusageincludethosesurroundingAfghanistan (Pakistan, Iran and Central Asia), as well asRussia,IndiaandpartsofAfrica.Manyoftheseareashave high levels of poverty and HIV, leaving them vul-nerable to the worst effects of this drug. It is importantthatthesetrendsarecarefullymonitoredoverthecoming years.11Executive Summary01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000199019921994199619982000200220042006Metric tonsAfghanistan MyanmarLao PDR Rest of the WorldTrafficking in heroin and morphine seizures, 2005 (countries reporting seizures* of more than 10 kg)Global opium production, 1990-20061.3 Coca/Cocaine MarketTheglobalcocainemarketislargelystableintermsofbothsupplyanddemand.Supplystabilityhasbeenachievedonlythroughintensiveeradicationefforts,especially in Colombia. The area under coca cultivationfell by 29 per cent between 2000-2006, including a 52per cent reduction in the area under coca cultivation inColombia. The areas under coca cultivation in Peru andBolivia increased over this period but remained signifi-cantly below the levels reported a decade earlier, reflect-ing long-term supply reduction.Though contained, there are indications that the supplyside of this market remains adaptive. The success in thereduction of coca cultivation from 2000 to 2006 did notlead to a decline in cocaine production. In recent years,the use of fertilizers and pesticides, and better produc-tiontechnology,haveimprovedcocayields,leavingcocaine production largely stable over the last few years(1,008 mt in 2004, 980 mt in 2005, 984 mt in 2006).Withproductionlargelystable,thereareencouragingsignsthatprogressisbeingmadeatreducingsupplythroughgrowingratesofinterdiction.Overall,theinterceptionraterosefrom24percentin2000to42percentin2006.Improvedcooperationamonglawenforcementbodiesinandacrosscountriesappearstohave led to an increase in seizures in and around the pro-ducercountries.Infact,58percentofglobalcocaineseizurestookplaceinSouthAmerica,theCaribbeanandCentralAmericain2005.NorthAmericaandWestern/CentralEurope,thetwomaincocainecon-sumption regions, also continued to seize large amountsofthedrug(28percentand14percentofglobalseizuresrespectively).Theworldslargestcocaineseizures in 2005 were, once again, made by Colombia,followedbytheUSA,Venezuela,Spain,EcuadorandMexico. CocaineisfrequentlytraffickedtoEuropeviatheCaribbean region and, increasingly, via Africa. Over the2000-2005period,thelargestincreasesincocaineseizures were reported by countries in Africa and West-ern/Central Europe. In Africa, seizures rose sixfold, andinWestandCentralEuropetheyrosefourfold.Thelargest cocaine seizures in Europe in 2005 were made bySpain,followedbyPortugalandtheNetherlands,reflecting both strong national law enforcement activi-ties and the increase in trafficking towards these coun-trieswhichcontainvibrantconsumermarketsandwhicharethemainentrypointsofcocaineintotheEuropean Union. 12World Drug Report 2007Changes in the use of heroin and other opiates, 2005 (or latest year available)Similarly, rising levels of seizures in Africa reflect the factthat this continent, notably countries along the Gulf ofGuinea and off the coast of Cape Verde, is increasinglybeingusedasatranshipmentpointforcocainefromSouth America to markets in western Europe.WhiletheconsumermarketinNorthAmericahasceasedtoexpand,cocaineismakingworryinginroadsinto new and growing markets. Consumption increasedsignificantlyinEurope,doublingortriplinginseveralcountries over the last decade. In Africa, notably in thecountriesofwesternAfrica,cocaineusehasalsoincreased. Overall cocaine consumption levels in EuropearestillsignificantlylowerthaninNorthAmerica.However, Spain recently reported that, for the first time,cocaineannualprevalencelevelsexceededthoseoftheUSA in 2005. High and rising levels of cocaine use havealso been reported from the UK and Italy. 13Executive SummaryChanges in the use of cocaine, 2005 (or latest year available)Global coca cultivation, 1990-2006 Global cocaine production*, 1990-2006025,00050,00075,000100,000125,000150,000175,000200,000225,000199019921994199619982000200220042006HectaresColombia Peru Bolivia02004006008001,0001,200199019921994199619982000200220042006Metric tonsColombia Peru Bolivia* revised data1.4 Cannabis MarketCannabis is the largest illicit drug market by far, includ-ingroughly 160 million annual consumers. The wide-spread nature of production and consumption make itvery difficult to define and quantify. Reports received byUNODCsuggestthatcannabisproductionistakingplaceinatleast172countriesandterritories.1Indica-tions of an overall stabilisation in the market in 2005 areextremely encouraging but it remains to be seen whetherthis will emerge as a long-term trend. Theproductionofcannabisresin(alsoknownashashish) is concentrated in North Africa (Morocco) andin the South-West Asia/Middle East region, particularlyinAfghanistanandPakistan.UNODCsurveyscon-ducted in collaboration with the Moroccan authoritiesrevealed a fall in the area of cannabis resin cultivation inthat country in recent years, from a peak of 134,000 hain2003to76,400hain2005.Resinproductiondeclined even more strongly, from 3,070 mt in 2003 to1,070 mt by 2005. Most of this production is consumedin Europe. Cannabisherbseizurescontinuetobemainlyconcen-tratedinNorthAmerica(66%ofglobalseizuresin2005),followedbyAfrica(16%).Globalseizuresofcannabis herb showed a strong increase over the 2000-2004period,aprobablereflectionofrisingcannabisherbproduction,traffickingandconsumption.How-ever, in 2005, cannabis herb seizures declined substan-tiallytothelevelsreportedbackin2000. Thedeclinewas reported across all continents. Eradication played arole but other factors are not yet fully known. Sustaineddeclinescouldalsoindicateagrowingrelianceondomestically produced cannabis.Globalcannabisresinseizuresalsodeclinedin2005due to lower production of cannabis resin in Morocco.The worlds largest cannabis resin seizures continued tobereportedbySpain(52%ofglobalhashishseizuresin2005),followedbyPakistan(7%)andMorocco(7%).TheconsumermarketsinNorthAmericaappeartohavecontractedsomewhat.AdeclineofcannabisusewasalsofoundintheOceaniaregion,whichhastheworldshighestlevelsofprevalenceratesforcannabis.Buttherehasbeenareportedincreaseofcannabisusein Africa and in most countries of South America. Thesituation in Europe and Asia is mixed. The number ofall countries reporting increases in cannabis use fell from58 per cent of all countries reporting in 2000 to 45 percent in 2005, while the number of countries reportingdeclinesincreasedfrom7percentin2000to21percent in 2005.14World Drug Report 2007Estimates of global cannabis herb production, 1988-200533100321004210045000420002620021700010,00020,00030,00040,00050,0001988/89 1992 1999 2001/02 2003 2004 2005Metric tons1A total of 82 countries explicitly reported the illicit cultivation of cannabis on their territory over the 1995-2005 period. In addition, MemberStates identified 134 source countries for the production of cannabis. Moreover, 146 countries reported seizing cannabis plants over the 1995-2005 period, which is an indirect indicator for the existence of cannabis plant production in a country, as cannabis plants are usually not traffickedacross borders (only the end-products are). Combining these data suggests that cannabis production is taking place in at least 172 countries andterritories.15Executive SummaryTrafficking in cannabis resin, 2005 (countries reporting seizures of more than 10 kg)Trafficking in cannabis herb, 2005 (countries reporting seizures of more than 100 kg)1.5 Amphetamine-type Stimulants MarketTherehasbeenanoverallstabilisationoftheATSmarket.ThealarmingincreasesintheproductionofATSthroughoutthe1990sseemtohavelevelledoffoverthelastfewyears. Thisislikelyaresultofrecentefforts to monitor and improve precursor control.Thelargestproductionareasformethamphetaminecontinue to be in South-East Asia (including Myanmar,China and the Philippines) and in North America. Tra-ditionally,themajorityofmethamphetamineintheUSAwasproduceddomestically,withtheprecursorchemicalssmuggledintothiscountryviaCanadaorMexico. Improved controls in Canada and further tight-ening of controls in the USA have led to a decline in thenumber of clandestine laboratories operating within theUSAandashiftofproductionacrossthebordertoMexico.However,Mexicohasnowalsoimproveditsprecursorcontrolregime,promptingdrugtraffickingorganizationstoexploitotherareas,suchasCentralAmerica and possibly Africa. In South Africa, where methamphetamine is producedforthedomesticmarket,bothproductionandcon-sumption have increased. The Oceania region, notablyAustraliaandNewZealand,continuetobeimportantproducersandconsumersofmethamphetamine,buttherearenoindicationsthatthesedrugsareexportedfrom there. AmphetamineproductioncontinuestobeprimarilylocatedinEurope,notablyintheNetherlandsandPoland,followedbytheBalticregionandBelgium.AmphetamineproductionalsotakesplaceinNorthAmerica (notably in the USA) and in South-East Asia.Ecstasy production also continues to be largely concen-trated in Europe, though the expansion of ecstasy pro-duction, in recent years, has mainly taken place outsideEurope,notablyinNorthAmericaandinEastandSouth-East Asia. GlobalseizuresofATScontinuetobedominatedbyseizuresofmethamphetamine.Overthe2000-2005period, 49 per cent of ATS seizures were in the form ofmethamphetamine, 15 per cent in the form of amphet-amine, and 14 per cent in the form of ecstasy. The trendinrecentyears,however,hasbeentowardsrisingpro-portionsofamphetamineandfallingproportionsofmethamphetamine, reflecting improved control over thetwo main methamphetamine precursors, ephedrine andpseudo-ephedrine.Globaldemandforamphetamines(methamphetamineandamphetamine),whichincreasedstronglyinmostparts of the world in the 1990s, is now showing signs ofoverallstabilisation.Atcloseto25millionpeople,theglobalamphetaminesconsumermarketislargerthan16World Drug Report 2007Changes in the use of cannabis, 2005 (or latest year available)the markets for cocaine or heroin. Between 15-16 mil-lionoftheseusersarethoughttoconsumemetham-phetamine.Followingtheexpansionoftheconsumermarket throughout the 1990s, there have been consis-tent signs of slow down and stabilisation over the lastfew years, particularly in North America.17Executive SummaryTrafficking in ecstasy, 2005 (countries reporting seizures* of m ore than 1 kg)0.70.90.0040.0033.30.0020.30.1 9.52.91.12.30.020.11.41.45.90.10.040.060.1 5.30.110.060.9 0.40.40.10.0080.30.020.001Seizures in 2005Volume inmetric tonsTrends (2004 - 2005)Increase (>10%)Stable (+/- 10%)Decrease (>10%)Other trafficking routesStimulants seizuresreported to UNODC (2001-2005)C anadaC entral A m ericaC olom biaU nited States of A m ericaM exicoW est &C entral EuropeSoutheast EuropeEast EuropeSaudi A rabiaJordanYem enN igerBurkinaFasoSouth A fricaEgyptThailandC hinaRepublic of KoreaJapanH ong Kong SA R, C hinaM yanm arU nited A rabEm iratesTaiw an(Prov. of C hina)PakistanLao PD RIndonesiaPhilippinesM alaysiaC am bodiaViet N amA ustraliaMain trafficking routesN ewZealand0.02No stimulants seizuresreported to UNODC (2001-2005)* Seizures as reported (street purity); units converted into w eight equivalents (30m g per unit)Trafficking in amphetamines, 2005 (countries reporting seizures* of m ore than 1 kg)18World Drug Report 2007Changes in the use of ecstasy (MDMA, MDA, MDEA), 2005 (or latest year available)Changes in the use of amphetamines (methamphetamine, amphetamine and related substances), 2005 (or latest year available)Istransnationaldrugtraffickinginthehandsoflargeand organized criminal groups or is it mainly conductedbysmallerandlooserassociationsofsmugglers?Theanswertothisquestionhasimplicationsforthewaydrug interdiction is approached. This question might beansweredthroughexistingindicators,particularlyseizure figures, price data and drug use trends. In orderto assess the potential of this approach, these indicatorsareexploredintwooftheworldslargestvaluedrugflows: the transhipment of cocaine via Central Americato the USA and the trafficking of heroin through Cen-tral Asia to the Russian Federation.Cocaine via Central America to the USAThis drug flow has surely become less centralised thanit was during the days of the Cali and Medellin cartels,whichdominatedthecocainemarketatalllevels.Butthe size of the seizures made in this region, as well as lowlevels of drug use in the transit zone countries, suggestthatcocainetraffickingremainshighlyorganizedanddominated by some very large organizations.The USA remains the worlds largest cocaine consumer,andsome88percentofthecocainedestinedfortheUSAtransitstheCentralAmerica/Mexicocorridor,about50percentalongthePacificand38percentalong the Caribbean coast of Central America. Most ofthecocaineflowtodayismaritimeandgiventhecostand complexity of trafficking on the high seas, this factalone suggests high levels of organization.Thelargestcocaineseizures,asreflectedintheUNODCIndividualDrugSeizuredatabase,involvemultipletonsofthedrugandareworthtensorevenhundredsofmillionsofdollars.Suchshipmentsareclearlybeyondthescopeofsmallnetworksofindivid-ualtraffickers.Theshareoflargeseizuresinnationalseizure totals highlight the fact that, while smaller scaletrafficking does take place, the backbone of the marketremainsinthehandsofmoresophisticatedoperators.Forexample,in2004,morethan25percentofthecocaineseizedinHondurascamefromjustonemar-itimeseizure,while42percentofthatseizedinNicaragua came from two major seizures on the AtlanticCoast.Thepresenceoflargeloadscanbeinferredfromthevolatilityofnationalseizuretotalsevenwhereindivid-ual seizure details are not available. For example, El Sal-vadorseized32kgin2001beforeincreasingseizuretotals to two or three tons annually between 2002 and2004.In2005,thecountryseizedonly32kg.Itisunlikely that either the real flows of cocaine through thecountryortheenforcementeffortsmadetointerdictdrugs varied so greatly from year to year, so seizure totalslikely reflect the presence or absence of a small numberof large seizures.19Executive Summary2. Invisible empire or invisible hand? Organized crime and transnational drug traffickingTrafficking in cocaine, 2005 (countries reporting seizures*of more than 10 kg)Since drug trafficking organizations would ideally like todeliver all the drugs produced to their highest value des-tinations, spillage of cocaine into the lower value mar-kets of transit countries represents a kind of inefficiency,often associated with diffuse networks of body courierswhoarepaidinkindratherthancash.Relativelylowdrug use levels among transit countries suggest that drugflows through this region remain highly organized.Finally, federal arrest figures in the USA show that thecocainetraffickingisdominatedbysyndicatesoftwonationalities: Mexican and Colombian. While this indi-cateslesscentralisationthanwouldbethecaseifthedrugproducerscontrolledtheentiresupplychain,itdemonstrates that the drugs are not simply percolatingnorthward,exchanginghandsmultipletimes.ArrestfiguressuggestthatthereisverylittleinvolvementwithintheUSAoftransitcountry(CentralAmerican)nationals.Heroin via Central Asia to the Russian Federation In contrast, trafficking through Central Asia appears toberelativelydisorganized.EstimatessuggestasmallshareofheroinboundforRussiaisseized(perhaps10%), leaving open the possibility that large shipmentsareoccurringundercoverofcorruption.Mostoftheseizures that are made, however, are very small with 95per cent totalling less than six kg. This amount can bepurchasedinAfghanistanforaboutUS$10,000,wellwithin the reach of smaller syndicates.20World Drug Report 20070.8 0.71.20.0 0.03.90.70.21.2 1.97.97.42.05.91.83.04.34.67.00.10.10.20.00.00.40.02.12.02.70.11.04.05.1 9.210.0 1.54.12.99.24.55.10.43.32.21.80.71.20.70.15.63.90.51.50.42.84.80.81.02.72.21.13.77.28.711.311.83.17.42.72.69.57.118.32.70.1 0.07.00.010.020.030.040.019951996199719981999200020012002200320042005Metric TonsBelize Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua PanamaTons of cocaine seized in Central American countries (rounded)0.4 0.40.51.01.2 1.20.90.82.80.350.00.51.01.52.02.53.0Global averageCosta RicaMexicoEl SalvadorColombiaHondurasNicaraguaGuatemalaPanamaUnited StatesPer centShare of adults using cocaine in the last year (age 15-64)200-499 g21%100-199 g31%500 gm-1 kg25%More than 6 kg5%1 kg-6 kg18%Breakdown of quantities of heroin seized in 1870large (100 g+) seizures in the Russian Federation,2004-2005ItwouldappearthatAfghansareinvolvedinbringingthedrugoutofAfghanistan.Fromthere,theheroinmay change hands to Kyrgyz or Kazakh nationals untilreaching Kazakhstan, and thereafter Kazakh or RussiangroupstransportittoRussia.ItwouldappearthatKyrgyzandKazakhnationalsarereliantontheTajikand Uzbek groups to provide the drugs for further traf-ficking.Ingeneral,transportthroughthetransitzoneoftenappearstobecontrolledbythenationalsofthetransit zone, with border crossings involving groups ofboth states. Few Tajik nationals are arrested in Kazakhstan for drugtrafficking but a large share of major seizures in Russiainvolve Tajiknationals.Of954heroinseizuresofover100 grams reported to the UNODC between 1999 and2004inwhichthenationalitiesofthetraffickerswerespecified, 252 involved Tajik nationals (26%), operatingeitheraloneorinconcertwithtraffickersofothernationalities. However, while Tajik groups are importantinbothcross-borderoperationswithAfghanistanandtrafficking within Russia, the small numbers arrested inKazakhstan leave open the possibility that they do notcontroltheheroinduringtheintermediatetraffickingperiod.Finally,druguserateshavebeengrowingrapidlyinCentralAsia,suggestingthatthesmugglingisindeedbeingconductedbyalargenumberofsmallcouriers,with the possibility that the heroin is sold-on multipletimes before reaching its final destination. Thetwoexamplesdiscussedabovehighlighttwoextremesofaspectrum:ontheonehand,thehighlyorganized groups active in shipping multi-million dollarconsignmentsofcocainefromColombiatotheUSA;ontheother,themany,uncoordinatedplayerswho,respondingtomarketincentives,moveheroinfromAfghanistantoRussia.Itappearsthatthetworegionsarevaguelyconverging,however-cocainetraffickinghas become less organized since the days of the Medellinand Cali Cartels, and the heroin trade in Afghanistan, isgrowing increasingly and is getting more organized.21Executive SummaryTajik 26%Exclusively Russian62%Other4%Uzbek3%Kazakh2%Kyrgyz3%Non-Russian involvement in large Russian heroinseizures, 1999-20041.TRENDSINTHEWORLDDRUGMARKETS25Continued containment of the drug problemThe global drug problem is being contained.The pro-ductionandconsumptionofcannabis,cocaine,amphetamines and ecstasy have stabilized at the globallevel with one exception. The exception is the contin-uingexpansionofopiumproductioninAfghanistan.This expansion continues to pose a threat -to the secu-rityofthecountryandtotheglobalcontainmentofopiates abuse.Even in Afghanistan, however, the largescale production of opium is concentrated and expand-ing in a few southern provinces where the authority ofthecentralgovernmentiscurrentlylimitedandinsur-gents continue to exploit the profits of the opium trade. On the whole, most indications point to a levelling ofgrowthinallofthemainillegaldrugmarkets. Thisisgood news and may indicate an important juncture inlong term drug control. A stable and contained problemis easier to address than one which is expanding chaoti-cally, provided it is seen as an opportunity for renewedcommitment rather than an excuse to decrease vigilance. Most indications are, however,that Member States dohave the will to re-commit to drug control. Although itis outside of the scope of this Report to assess policy, theestimates and trends which are provided in the follow-ing pages contain several examples of progress forged onthebackofinternationalcollaboration.Theextentofinternationalcollaboration,thesharingofintelligence,knowledgeandexperience,aswellastheconvictionthattheglobaldrugproblemmustbetackledonthebasis of a shared responsibility seem to be growing andbearing fruit.Followingstabilizationin2005,opiumproductionincreased in 2006 ... Thetotalareaunderopiumcultivationwas201,000hectares in 2006. This is clearly higher than a year ear-lier(+33%)thoughstillbelowthelevelin1998(238,000ha)andsome29percentlowerthanatthepeak in 1991 (282,000 ha). Given higher opium yieldsinAfghanistanthaninSouth-EastAsia,globalopiumproduction is, however,higher than in the 1990s. Following a small decline of global opium production in2005(-5%),globalopiumproductionincreasedagainstronglyin2006(+43%)toreach6610mt,basicallyreflecting themassive expansion of opium productioninAfghanistan(+49%).Afghanistanaccountedfor92per cent of global illicit opium production in 2006.Asaresultglobalheroinproductionisestimatedtohaveincreasedto606mtin2006.ThebadnewsfromAfghanistanalsoovershadowsthegoodnewsfromSouth East Asia. Opium production in the Golden Tri-angle(mainlyMyanmarandLaos)declinedby77percent between 1998 and 2006 and by 84 per cent sincethe peak in 1991. while cocaine production remained stable If only the area under coca cultivation is considered,asmalldeclineby2percentto157,000hectareswasreportedfortheyear2006.Ascomparedtotheyear2000,theareaundercocacultivationintheAndeanregion declined by 29 per cent;in Colombia, it fell byas much as 52 per cent. This progress was, however, nottranslatedintoadeclineofglobalcocaineproduction,duetoimprovedyieldsandproductiontechniques.Globalcocaineproductionisestimatedtohaveremained basically unchanged in 2006 as compared toa year earlier or two years earlier. Following a revision ofyieldestimates,globalproductionisnowestimatedat984mt.AdeclineinColombia(-5%)wascompen-satedbyincreasesreportedfromBolivia(+18%)andPeru (+8%). Cannabis production declined in 2005 ...Estimatesforbothcannabisherbandcannabisresinshowed a decline for the year 2005.This decline followsseveral years of sustained growth. Global cannabis herbproduction is now estimated at 42,000 mt, down from45,000 mt in 2004.Global cannabis resin production1.1 Overview1.1.1 Evolution of the World Drug Problemdeclined from 7,500 mt in 2004 to 6,600 mt in 2005,reflecting mainly the decline of cannabis resin produc-tion in Morocco.... and ATS production stabilized Globalproductionofamphetamine-typestimulantsseemstohavestabilizedataround480mtin2005,slightly down from 500 mt in 2000. There has been adecline in ecstasy production (from 126 mt in 2004 to113 mt in 2005), and a small decline in methampheta-mineproduction(from291to278mt)whichwasoffset by an increase in global amphetamine production(from 63 to 88 mt).Member States reported 1.5 million drug seizure casesto UNODC MemberStatesreported1.5milliondrugseizurecasesto UNODC for the year 2005,21 per cent more thana year earlier. Some of the increase was due to improvedreporting. One hundred and twelve countries provideddetailed statistics on seizure cases in 2005, up from 95countriesin2004.Ifonlythedataofthosecountriesthat reported in both 2004 and 2005 is considered, theincrease amounts to 10 percent. Morethanhalf(57%)ofallseizurecasesinvolvedcannabis(herb,resin,oil,plantsandseeds).Opiates(opium, morphine, heroin, synthetic opiates and poppyseeds),accountedfor17percent,withheroinaloneaccounting for 14 per cent of the total. This is followedby seizures of the amphetamine-type stimulants (12 %).Abouthalfoftheseseizures(or5.5%ofthetotal)isaccountedforbymethamphetamine,followedbyamphetamine (2.5%) and ecstasy (2%); the rest (2 %)includesCaptagontablets(NearEast)andMaxitonForte(Egypt),ephedrone(methcathinone)andvari-ousundefinedamphetamines.Cocaproductsaccountfor9percentofglobalseizurecases;thebulkofcocarelated seizure cases concern cocaine (8 % of total).Depressantsaccountfor1percentofglobalseizurecases and other drugs for 4 per cent. This includes sub-stancessuchasmethaqualone,khat,varioussyntheticnarcotics,LSD,ketamine,variousnon-specifiedpsy-chotropic substances, and inhalants. Some of these sub-stances(suchaskhat,ketamineandsomeofthepsychotropicsubstances)arenotunderinternationalcontrol,butareundernationalcontrolinseveralMember States. Largest quantities of drugs seized are cannabis, cocaineand opiates Information on the quantities of drugs seized was pro-videdby118countriesfortheyear2005inreplytoUNODCsAnnualReportsQuestionnaire.Supple-mentingARQdatawithinformationobtainedfromother sources1, UNODC has compiled data and infor-mationfrom165countriesandterritories. Thisformsthe basis for the analysis which follows.Thelargestseizuresworldwideareforcannabis(herbandthenresin),followedbycocaine,theopiatesandATS.Allcannabisrelatedseizuresamountedtomorethan9,700mtin2005,including5,947mtforcannabisendproducts(herb,resinandoil).Cocaineseizures amounted to 752 mt, opiate seizures, expressedinheroinequivalents,amountedto125mtandATSseizures(methamphetamine,amphetamine,non-defined amphetamines and ecstasy) amounted to 43 mt. Increasesin2005werereportedforcocaleaf,cocaine,the amphetamines as well as GHB and LSD.As globalcocaineproductionremainedunchanged,thestrongincreaseincocaineseizuresislikelytohavebeentheexclusiveresultofeffectiveandsuccessfullawenforce-ment. Though amphetamines seizures increased in 2005theyarestillbelowthepeaklevelsof2000and2001.Globaltraffickinginamphetaminesoverthelastfiveyears has remained basically stable. Opiatesseizuresasawholeremainedstablein200526World Drug Report 2007Fig. 1: Breakdown of seizure cases in 2005 by substance (N = 1.51 million)Opiates17%Cannabis57%Amphetamines10%Ecstasy2%Depressants1%Other4%Coca9%Source: UNODC, Government reports.1Government reports, HONLEA reports, UNODC Field Offices, Drug Abuse Information Network for Asia and the Pacific (DAINAP),ICPO/Interpol, World Customs Organisation (WCO), CICAD, EMCDDA, United States Department of State, International Narcotics ControlStrategy Report, etc. 27reflectingstableglobalopiumproductioninthatyear.Risingseizuresofopiumoffsetdeclinesinheroinandmorphine seizures. For 2006, however, preliminary dataindicateastrongincreaseinopiatesseizures,inlinewithgrowinglevelsofopiumproductioninAfghanistan.In 2005, global seizures of cannabis herb,resinand oildeclined. The decline in cannabis herb seizures seems tobe linked to intensified eradication efforts in a numberofcountriesacrosstheglobe. Thedeclineincannabisresinseizurescanbelinkedtothedeclineofcannabisresin production in Morocco.Drug seizures in unit terms decline in 2005Asthequantitiesofdrugsseizedarenotdirectlycom-parable,itisdifficulttodrawgeneralconclusionsonoveralldrugtraffickingpatternsfromthem.Sincetheratio of weight to psychoactive effects varies greatly fromonedrugtoanother(theuseofonegramofheroinisnot equivalent to the use of one gram of cannabis herb),the comparability of the data is improved if the weightof a seizure is converted into typical consumption units,or doses, taken by drug users. Typical doses tend, how-ever,tovaryacrosscountries(andsometimeacrossregionswithinthesamecountry),acrosssubstancesaggregatedunderonedrugcategory(e.g.commercialcannabisherbandhigh-gradecannabisherb),acrossusergroupsandacrosstime.Therearenoconversionrates which take all of these factors into account. Com-parisons made here are based on global conversion rates,of milligrams per dose,2found in scientific literature orused among law enforcement agencies as basic rules ofthumb.Theresultingestimatesshouldbeinterpretedwith some caution.1. OverviewFig. 2: Global cannabis seizures, 2004-2005 0.87,1523,5971,4661,3024,6440.73,7790 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000CannabisplantsCannabis oilCannabis resinCannabis herbMetric tons equivalents2004 2005Source: UNODC, Government reports.Fig. 3: Global drug seizures, excluding cannabis, 2004-20054.82.17.95.910.939.260.2106.9211.7579.40.65.312.917.232.058.697.5342.2752.31.40 200 400 600 800 1,000MethaqualoneDepressants Ecstasy AmphetamineMethamphetamineMorphineHeroinKhatOpiumCocaine Coca leafMetric tonsequivalents2004 2005120732092For the purposes of this calculation, the following typical consumption units (at street purity) were assumed: cannabis herb: 0.5 grams per joint;cannabis resin: 0.135 grams per joint; cocaine: 0.1 grams per line;ecstasy: 0.1 grams per pill, heroin: 0.03 grams per dose;amphetamines: 0.03grams per pill; LSD:0.00005 grams(50 micrograms).Fig. 4: Global drug seizures in unit equivalents, 2000-20050.010.020.030.040.01985 1990 1995 2000 2005In billion units equivalentsCannabis Coca Opiates ATSOtherSource: UNODC, Government reports. Source: UNODC, Government reports. 28World Drug Report 2007Fig. 5: Trends in the world seizures, 1995 - 2005OPIUM0501001502002503003504001995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Metric tonsHEROIN AND MORPHINE0204060801001201995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Metric tonsCOCAINE01002003004005006007008001995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Metric tonsCANNABIS HERB01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0001995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Metric tonsCANNABIS RESIN02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Metric tonsAMPHETAMINES051015202530354045501995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Metric ton equivalents291. OverviewBased on such calculations, global seizures were equiva-lent to 32.5 billion units in 2005, down from 35.8 bil-lionunitsayearearlier(-9%).Asthenumberofdrugseizure cases increased in 2005, the decline of seizures inunitequivalentscannotbeattributedtoreducedlawenforcement activity. It most likely reflects the first signsof stabilization in global drug trafficking flows parallelto the stabilization in global drug production and drugconsumption.In units terms, more than half of all seizures (59 %) arecannabis,followedbycocarelatedsubstances(24%),opiates (12 %) and amphetamine-type stimulants (4%).While cannabis leads the table, irrespective of the meas-urement used, it may be interesting to note that in termsof drug units seized, cocaine ranks second. In terms ofreporteddrugseizurecases,cocainerankedfourth,behindtheopiatesandbehindtheATS. Thisreflectsthe fact that, while there are many multi-ton seizures ofcocaine every year, other drugs are usually trafficked infar smaller quantities. Aregionalbreakdownshowsthat44percentofalldrugs, expressed in unit equivalents, were seizedin theAmericas, 29 per cent in Europe, 18 per cent in Asia,9percentinAfricaand0.2percentintheOceaniaregion. Seizures declined in 2005 in Africa, in the Ocea-niaregion,inEuropeandinNorthAmericabutincreased in South America and in Asia. Onapercapitabasis,drugtraffickingismostwide-spread in North America, reflecting higher abuse levelsand/or the fact that law enforcement in North Americaisthemostactiveinfightingdrugtrafficking.ThelargestamountsofdrugsperinhabitantareseizedinNorthAmerica(19dosesperinhabitant),followedbySouth America (13 doses) and Europe (11 doses).Theglobal average is 5 doses per inhabitant per year. Africa,OceaniaandAsiaareallbelowtheglobalaverage.WithinAsia,however,datadifferamongthevarioussubregions. For the Near & Middle East / South-WestAsia region, seizures amount to 11 doses per inhabitant,which is almost the same level as reported from Europe. Overall stabilization in global drug use Theestimatedlevelofdruguseintheworldhasremained more or less unchanged for the third year in arow. Approximately 200 million people or 5 per cent oftheworldspopulationagedbetween15and64yearshave used drugs at least once in the previous 12 months.Fig. 6: Regional breakdown of seizures in unit equivalents, 1985 -2005 (N = 32.5 billion units)0.010.020.030.040.01985 1990 1995 2000 2005in billion units equivalentsOceaniaAsiaAfricaSouth America ('non-NAFTA')North America ('NAFTA')EuropeSource: UNODC, Government reports.Fig. 7:Regional breakdown of drug seizures in unit equivalents, 1985-2005Ot her1%Coca24%ATS4%Opiat es12%Cannabis59%Source: UNODC, Government reports.Fig. 8: Drug units/doses seized per inhabitant in 200511.95.01.7 1.513.119.03.20.05.010.015.020.0North America South America EuropeGlobal averageAfricaOceaniaAsiaDrug units seized per inhabitantSource: UNODC, Government reports. 30World Drug Report 2007This continues to be a far lower level than tobacco use(28%).UNODCsestimateoftheglobalnumberofproblemdrugusersalsoremainsunchangedataround25 million people or 0.6% of the global population age15-64. Withtheexceptionofasmallincreaseincocaineuse(basedonprevalenceestimates),useofallillicitdrugswaseitherstableordeclinedslightlyin2005/6.Theincreasesincannabisandecstasyusewhichwererecordedin2004/5werenotcarriedoverintothe2005/6 period. Consumedbyalmost4percentofthepopulationorcloseto160millionpersons,cannabiscontinuestoaccount for the vast majority of illegal drug use. Globalcannabis use estimates are slightly lower than last yearsestimates,duetoongoingdeclinesinNorthAmericaandforthefirsttime-somedeclinesinthelargestcannabismarketsofWesternEurope.CannabisuseintheOceanaregionalsocontinuedtodecline.Inaddi-tion, a number of new household surveys found lowerprevalenceratesthanUNODChadpreviouslyesti-mated for the countries concerned. Growth in cannabisuse occurred in Africa, several parts of South America,some parts of Asia (South-West Asia, Central Asia andSouth-Asia)andpartsofEasternandSouth-easternEurope.Althoughitistooearlytospeakofgeneraldecline,signsofastabilizationofcannabisuseattheglobal level are apparent.Amphetamine-typestimulants(ATS),includingamphetamines,methamphetamineandecstasy,remainthe second most widely consumed group of substances.Over the 2005/6 period 25 million people are estimatedtohaveusedamphetamines(includingmethampheta-mine) at least once in the previous 12 months, about thesameasayearearlier.Anestimated9millionpeopleused ecstasy over the 2005/6 period, down from 10 mil-lion in 2004/5. Declines in ecstasy use occurred prima-rily in North America. The number of opiates users remained stable at 2004/5levels. As in that period, 16 million persons or 0.4 percent of the global population aged 15 to 64 consumedFig. 9: Use of illicit drugs compared to the use of tobacco (in % of world population age 15-64)28%4%1%051015202530Tobacco Cannabis ATS, cocaine,opiatesSource: UNODC, WHOFig. 10: Illegal drug use at the global level (2005/2006)World population age 15-64:4,177 million people (100%*)Problem drug use:age 15-64:25 million people (0.6%*)Monthly prevalence of drug use:110 million people (2.6%*)Annual prevalence of drug use:200 million people (4.8%*)Total world population:6,475 million people* in per cent of population age 15-64Non-drug using populationage 15-64:3,977 million people (95.2%*)311. Overviewopiates. Out of these 16 million persons, 11 million or0.3percentofthepopulationabuseheroin.Overall,consumption declined or stabilized in established mar-kets,includingthoseofWesternEuropeandNorthAmerica,butincreasedincountriesinthevicinityofAfghanistan as well as in new markets, such asAfrica.InmostofthecountriesofEastandSouth-EastAsiaopiate abuse stabilized or declined. UNODCsestimateofthegloballevelofcocaineuseincreased slightly to 14 million persons or 0.3 per centof the global population.Continued increases in SouthAmerica,AfricaandEuropewerepartiallyoffsetbydecreases reported from North America. UNODC alsocompilesdatabasedonusetrendsasperceivedbyexperts. Results from these data are not always identicaltoactualreportedinformation.3Trendestimatespro-vided by Member States to UNODC differ slightly, andindicatethatglobalcocaineusedeclinedslightlyin2005.TreatmentdemandcontinuestobehighestinNorthAmerica The demand for drug abuse treatment is an importantindicator for assessing the world drug situation becauseitrevealsthedrugswhichplacethelargestburdenonnational health systems. Member States reported a totalof 4.5 million people under treatment for drug abuse toUNODC.Ofthe25millionpeople(0.6%oftheworldspopulationage15-65)estimatedtobeheavilyCannabisAmphetamine-typestimulantsCocaine Opiatesof whichheroinAmphetamines Ecstasy(million people) 158.8 24.9 8.6 14.3 15.6 11.1in % of global populationage 15-643.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%Annual prevalence is a measure of the number/percentage of people who have consumed an illicit drug at least oncein the 12 month-period preceding the assessment.Table 1: Extent of drug use (annual prevalence*) estimates 2005/6 (or latest year available)3A detailed explanation of this can be found in the Methodology section of this Report.XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXFig. 11: UNODC estimates of illicit drug use, late 1990s to 2005/2006144.124.229.626.225158.924.99.214.04.513.5146.213.315.28.39.2160.113.715.97.910.611.3162.413.415.99.714.38.615.811.23.8%0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%020406080100120140160180Cannabis Amphetamines Ecstasy Cocaine Opiates HeroinMillion peopleDrug use in the late 1990s Drug use in 2001/02Drug use in 2003/04Drug use in 2004/05 Drug use in 2005/06Sources: UNODC, Government reports, EMCDDA, CICAD, local studies.32World Drug Report 2007drugdependent,about1outof5aretreatedfortheirproblem.The number of persons under treatment is higher thanwas reported in last years World Drug Report (3.7 mil-lion).Mostoftheincreaseisduetobetterreporting(notably from countries in South America). The actualworldtotalmaybehighergiventhelargenumberofcountries which do not have comprehensive registry sys-tems.Based on reported data, some 700 out of every millionpersons were treated for drug abuse in 2005. The high-est numbers of drug treatment (per million inhabitants)are found in the Americas (3,670), the Oceania region(2,290), and Europe (850). Within the Americas, treat-mentlevelsinNorthAmericaarethehighest(5,050),andwithinEuropetreatmentisfarmorefrequentinWesternEurope(1,400)thanintherestoftheconti-nent (360). Treatment levels in Asia (120) and in Africa(30) are low. In recent years much of the progress madeatthegloballevelinstabilizingorreducingdrugcon-sumptionoccurredinNorthAmerica,theOceaniaregionandWesternEurope,wheremoretreatmentcapacity was created.Treatmentdemandforopiatesabusecontinuestobehighest in Asia and in Europe In Asia and Europe home to more than 70 per cent oftheworldstotalpopulationopiatesaccountforthebulk of drug-related treatment demand (62% and 58%,respectivelyin2005.)4WithinEurope,treatmentdemandforopiatesabuseishigherinEasternEurope(61%)andlowerinWesternEurope(55%). Thepro-portion of opiates-related treatment in overall treatmentdemand has been declining in both regions since the late1990s5.InEuropethisreflectsincreasingabuseofcannabis, cocaine and ATS; in Asia increasing abuse ofATS and some increase in cannabis. The decline in AsiaisalsolinkedtothedeclineofopiumproductioninSouthEastAsia.InOceania,theproportionoftreat-ment for opiates addiction in overall treatment demandisdeclining.ThisbeganaftertheAustralianheroinshortage of 2001. The only exception to this downwardtrend is Africa. Heroin related treatment increased from8 per cent of treatment demand in the late 1990s to 15percentin2005.Mostofthisrisewasreportedfromcountries in eastern and southern Africa. TreatmentofcocaineabuseremainshighestintheAmericasbutthestrongestincreaseisrecordedinEurope InSouthAmerica,cocainecontinuestoaccountformost of the drug abuse related treatment demand (48%)though the proportion has declined since the late 1990s(from 65%). High proportions of cocaine related treat-mentdemandarealsoencounteredinNorthAmerica(40%). In the USA, cocaine related treatment demandhasshownamarkeddeclineoverthelastdecade.Because this was not the case for Canada or Mexico, theunweightedaverageforNorthAmericadeclinedonlyslightly. The strongest increase in cocaine related treat-ment demand was observed in Europe (rising from 3 %to8%).Dataalsoshowthatcocaineisstillmainlyaproblem of Western Europe, where it now accounts for13percentoftreatmentdemand.InEasternEuropethe proportion is 2 per cent and in Africa 10 per cent.InAsia,incontrast,cocainerelatedtreatmentisstillnegligible (0.3%). Fig. 12: Drug treatment per million inhabitants in 2005 (N = 4.5 million)367422888476961172901,0002,0003,0004,000AmericasOceaniaEuropeGlobal averageAsiaAfricaPer million inhabitantsSource: UNODC, Government reports.4While some countries have a comprehensive treatment registry system, others only provide data from a few clinics. Simply adding up such num-bers of people treated for specific substances would give a strong bias in favour of the countries which have nationwide monitoring systems. Inorder to overcome this problem, the proportions at the country level were first calculated and based on these results, the (unweighted) averages ofthe respective region were derived. The data shown are those reported for the year 2005. In case no data for a specific country were reported for2005, data obtained in previous years were used instead. 5The subsequent comparisons are based on treatment data statistics compiled and published in the World Drug Report, 2000. 34World Drug Report 2007Fig. 13: Proportion of people in drug related treatment for specific substances: 1997/98 and 2005*Opiates8%66%72%73%15%33%58%62%0% 20% 40% 60% 80%AfricaOceaniaEuropeAsia1997/98 (WDR 2000) 2005* (WDR 2007)Cocaine3%10%42%65%8%10%40%48%0% 20% 40% 60% 80%EuropeAfricaNorthAmericaSouthAmerica1997/98 (WDR 2000) 2005* (WDR 2007)Cannabis10%15%23%13%61%18%26%36%46%63%0% 20% 40% 60% 80%EuropeSouthAmericaNorthAmericaOceaniaAfrica1997/98 (WDR 2000) 2005* (WDR 2007)ATS8%3%5%13%12%10%12%16%18%19%0% 5% 10% 15% 20%EuropeAfricaNorthAmericaOceaniaAsia1997/98 (WDR 2000) 2005* (WDR 2007)* 2005 or latest year available; calculated as the unweighted average ofcountries reporting in a specific region; information based onreports from 40 countries in Asia; 38 countries in Europe,27 countries in Africa; 24 countries in South America, Central America andthe Caribbean, 3 countries in North America and 2 countries in the Oceania region. Sources: UNODC, Government reports, EMCDDA, CICAD351. OverviewConsolidating achievementsWhile there has been a long term geographical contrac-tionofcultivationandproductioncentersforopium/opiatesandcoca/cocaine,therehasbeenadis-persion of production locations for cannabis and ATS.Whiletheworldhaswitnessedoverallstabilizationintheestablishedconsumermarketsforeachofthefourillicit drugs, there are also indications of growing levelsof abuse in some regions. It will be important to care-fully monitor the markets to see whether this stabiliza-tion trend is being sustained. The goal, of course, is tomovefromcontainmenttooverallreduction.Under-standing some of the threats and enabling conditions inrelation to this goal will be critical to this achievement.Development of new trafficking routes The development of new trafficking routes is somethingwhichshouldbeanticipatedandmonitoredcarefully.Illicit drug organizations, independent of their level oforganizationandsophistication,areadaptiveandcre-ative when it comes to distribution. Over the course ofthelastfewyearsnewrouteshaveappearedinsomeregions.InparticularAfricaisincreasinglybeingexploitedbydrugtraffickersandthistrendcanbeexpectedtocontinue.ThetraffickingroutesfromAfghanistan via Pakistan and Central Asia to China (inorder to compensate for the lower production levels inMyanmar)areanother potential growth area that willneed more careful monitoring. Development of new consumer markets Withinthecontextofoverallstabilizationofdemand,incipient consumer markets can probably be identifiedfor each of the four drug markets. In the case of opiatesthey seem to be forming along trafficking routes and inAfricancountries,inthecaseofamphetaminesandATS, there are indications of some emerging markets inSouth-East Europe and the Near and Middle East, andcocaine continues to find new markets in South Amer-ica, Europe and Africa. There have also been reports ofthe emergence ofcocaine markets in some of the Asiancountries. Opiate use is increasing in Africa, notably incountriesofeasternAfricaandinSouthAfricaandcocaineuseisincreasingincountriesofwesternandsouthern Africa. Opium/heroin marketDevelopmentsinAfghanistanwillcontinuetodeter-mine the levels ofglobal opium production.With noindication that production will rise significantly in anyof the other opium producing countries, where supplyhasbeencontracting,Afghanistansshareinglobalopium production could rise again this year. Early indi-cations suggest there could be another increase in opiumproduction in that country in 2007. New trafficking routes are likely to develop or come tolight.RoutesintoandthroughChinaandIndiaareexamples of this. Increases in abuse in countries border-ingAfghanistanandalongmajortraffickingroutesarelikely, while demand can be expected to remain stable inestablished markets. Coca/cocaine marketProductionlevelsarelikelytoremainstablewithColombiaretainingitsshareofoverallproduction.Developments in Bolivia will continue to influence themarket.Intheabsenceofincreasedpreventionefforts,thecurrentupwardtrendinuseinEuropecouldcon-tinue.CannabisThe insidiousness of this market will not change in thenearterm.Inthemid-term,theproductionofresincouldcontinuedeclining,giventheongoingeffortsmadebyMorocco.Theproductionofcannabisherbmaywellincreaseagain,afterthedeclinein2005.Growth in hydroponic production, and thus growth inproduction in the developed world, is likely to continue.Despite the overall stabilization of use in 2005/06, it istoo soon to predict an end to growth in the consump-tion of cannabis. ATSAlthoughATSproductionisflexibleinthesensethattechnologyissimpleandinfrastructurecanbetempo-rary, it is rather inflexible when it comes to the chemi-cal inputs required to produce the final product. As longasthecontrolsontheseareeffectiveandcanbesus-tained their lack of availability will hamper global pro-1.1.2 Outlook for world drug markets36World Drug Report 2007duction.In2005/2006thesecontrolsincreased,withimpressive results in several regions. If this is sustainedinto the next few years growth of supply in this marketcouldindeedbesuppressed.Ontheotherhand,onecanalsoobservesomecircumventionstrategies,asthenecessaryprecursorchemicalsareincreasinglybeingproduced out of chemicals that remain readily availableon the market.Although amphetamine, methamphetamine and ecstasyare likely to continue to find new consumers it is likelythat, overall, the market will remain stable. Ecstasy usecouldcontinuedeclininginestablished,developedworld markets, and increasing in markets in developingcountries.PolicymomentumatthenationalandinternationallevelIf one takes the Hague Opium Convention of 1912 asa starting point, the struggle against the drug problemhasbeenlongindeed. Whenithasbeeneffective,andsuccesses have been enumerated in previous editions ofthisReport,oneofthepillarsofsuccesshasbeensus-tained political commitment and resource allocation atthe national and international level. Trends revealed in the pages of this Report indicate thatthe current stabilization could be an important juncturefor drug control. Significant stabilizations have occurredand have been sustained in the short term. Continuedcommitment and momentum at the international levelwill be one element in continuing these trends and pos-sibly effecting sustainable, long term contraction in eachof these markets. In this context assistance, approaches and policy need tobe appropriately holistic and sequenced.In 1998, at theGeneralAssemblySpecialSessiononDrugs(UNGASS), Illicit Trafficking, there was a general con-sensusamongtheinternationalcommunitythatthedrug problem could only be effectively addressed holis-tically. The first step to achieving this was to ensure thatinterventionsweremadebothonthesupplyandthedemand sides of the problem. Almost ten years on, it isapparent that this central tenet now forms the basis ofmuchdrugpolicy.Similarly,ithasbeenincreasinglyrecognised that drug policy and drug control interven-tions must be holistic in nature. In order to address theproblem of supply in Afghanistan, for example, demandinEuropeandtheneighbouringcountriesofAfghanistan needs to be controlled, as does the growingproblemofuseinAfghanistanitself,andthedevelop-ment of new trafficking routes through Central Asia which,inturn,couldaddresstheincreaseinIDUrelated HIV infection rates in the region. Each of thoseproblems, also need to be addressed in their proper con-text. In some cases this will mean ensuring that the drugproblemisapproachedinthebroaderhumansecurityanddevelopmentframework. Thistypeofapproachismorecomplex,andwillneedinternationalcoordina-tion, but shouldyield sustainable benefits.Astheinternationalcommunitymovesincreasinglytoward this type of approach one of the main elementsof its success is going to be ensuring that interventionsare properly sequenced.To ensure efficacy, the basis ofthissequencingmustbebuiltonknowledgeofdrugmarket dynamics. As this knowledge advances, strategycan become more sophisticated. At what stage in a drugepidemic,forexample,shouldtreatmenteffortsbeincreased, or when would it be most effective to aim forasharpreductioninsupply?Noneoftheseissuesisstraightforward.However,overthelasttenyearsthesteady accumulation of knowledge on the drug situationhasledtotheadvancementofourunderstandingofdrug market dynamics.If momentum on this contin-ues,strategicpolicyofthisnaturecouldbecomeaneffective tool for reducing the drug problem rather thanmerely containing it.371.2 Opium / Heroin Market1.2.1 Summary trend overviewRecord levels of supply of illicit opiates from Afghanistancontinuetothreatenthestabilisationofdemandwhichhasoccurredinalloftheillicitdrugsmajorconsumermarkets.With82percentofglobalopiumcultivationnowconcentratedinAfghanistanthesupplysideofthemarketisdeterminedbyproductioninanddistributionfrom this country.This level of supply side concentrationisuniqueamongstthefourillicitmarketsandoccurredoverthelastdecademainlyduetosustainedsuccessinreducing cultivation in South-East Asia - the area knownas the Golden Triangle - where poppy cultivation declinedby87percentoverthelastdecade.Between2005and2006,poppycultivationinSouth-EastAsiandeclinedfrom 35,000 ha to 24,000 ha. The significance of the con-tractioninopiumcultivationinMyanmarandLaoscannot be underestimated.Although opium poppy culti-vationinAfghanistanincreasedmassivelyin2006,theglobal area under illicit poppy cultivation was still 10 percent lower in 2006 - slightly more than 200,000 ha - thanin 2000, and more than 20 per cent lower than in 1996.Despite successes in the reduction of cultivation and pro-duction in the Golden Triangle, the global production ofopium has increased by one half since 1998. Afghanistannow accounts for 92 per cent of global illicit opium pro-duction, up from 70 per cent in 2000 and 52 per cent adecade earlier. Exacerbating the problem, higher yields inAfghanistanascomparedtootheropiumproducingregions, have brought global opium production to a newrecordhighof6,610mtin2006,a43percentincreaseover 2005. This level of production concentration and thepotentialforadamagingsupplypusharetworeasonstocontinuemonitoringandunderstandingopiatestraffick-ingpatternsandroutes.Theglobalopiateinterceptionraterosefromjust9percentin1990to15percentin1995,21percentin2000and26percentin2005reflecting the increased efforts made by Member States tocurbtraffickinginopiates.Thestrongexpansioninseizures meant that the actual amount of opiates availableforconsumptionin2005was5percentlowerthanin2000 and 8 per cent lower than a decade earlier.Recently, one of the defining characteristics of this markethasbeenthatpricebehaviourandotherindicatorswereless indicative of supply and demand fluctuations than onewould expect.With a surge in supply and stable demand,a price decline would be expected near the source, but opi-atespricesarenoteasytopredict,becausetheglobaldynamics of this market are not well understood. Despitethe49percentincreaseinproductioninAfghanistan2006,opiumpricesfellbyjust17percentincountry.Thiscouldsuggestthereissignificantstockpiling,butthere is little evidence as to where and how this is occur-ing.Afghan opiates supply the markets of neighbouring coun-tries, Europe, the Near and Middle East and Africa. Opi-atesproducedinSouth-EastAsiamainlysupplythemarkets of China and other South-East Asian countries aswellasOceania.OpiatesproducedinLatinAmericaaremainlydestinedfortheNorthAmericanmarket.How-ever, it appears that cross-regional trafficking is gaining inimportance. There are indications that a small but increas-ing proportion of opiates from Afghanistan are being traf-fickedtoNorthAmerica,eitherviaeasternandwesternAfrica, or via Europe. Overall, the consumer market has remained encouraginglystable despite important increases in consumption in thecountriesalongmajortraffickingroutes.Opiatecon-sumptionisincreasinginthecountriessurroundingAfghanistan:Pakistan,IranandCentralAsia.Abuseisalsoincreasinginsometransitandconsumercountries,including Russia, India, and countries of eastern, southernand western Africa. Though the bulk of opiates for the Chinese market con-tinue to originate in Myanmar, there are reports of risinglevelsofAfghanopiatesbeingtraffickedtoChina,pre-sumablytoreplacedecliningproductioninMyanmar.This supply loss is unlikely to have been completely offsetbynewAfghansuppliesandoveralldemandinChinaisheadingtowardsstabilization.InseveraloftheotherSouth-East Asian and Pacific countries, which relied heav-ily on supplies from the Golden Triangle, demand for opi-ates is falling. Despite the overall increase in the global supply of opiatesthere is an ongoing stabilization, or slow-down, in most ofthe main consumer markets, including West and CentralEurope, North America, East and South-East Asia and theOceania region. The consumer market for heroin in NorthAmerica seem to be stable to declining, possibly reflectingalowersupplypushfromproducercountriesinSouthAmerica and the shortage of opiates from South-East Asia. 38World Drug Report 2007The sixth straight year of decline in opium cultivationin South-East Asia could not offset an increase in cul-tivation in AfghanistanWorldwide,theestimatedareaunderillicitopiumpoppy increased by 33 per cent in 2006, mainly due toa sharp increase in Afghanistan. Opium poppy cultiva-tioninSouth-EastAsiacontinuedtodeclineforthesixth consecutive year, but could not offset the increasein Afghanistan. Since 1998, global opium poppy culti-vationhasdecreasedby15percentto201,000hain2006.The area under opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistanincreasedby59percentfrom104,000hain2005to165,000hain2006.Thisisthelargestareaunderopium poppy cultivation ever recorded in Afghanistan.Ascultivationaroundtheworlddeclines,theshareofAfghanistan in global opium poppy cultivation has con-sequentlyincreased:anoverwhelming82percentofglobal opium cultivation took place in just one countryin 2006. Sixty-twopercentofcultivationinAfghanistanwasconcentrated in the southern region. Opium cultivationspread again at the provincial level with only six out ofAfghanistans34provincesbeingfoundfreeofopiumpoppy cultivation in 2006. In the 12 years since the startoftheUNODCopiumsurveysin1994,opiumculti-vationincreasedineightyears,anddecreasedinonlyfour.InPakistan,whereopiumpoppyisgrownintheAfghan-Pakistanborderregion,theGovernmentreported a 59 per cent reduction of opium poppy culti-vation bringing the total to just 1,545 ha. CultivationinSouth-EastAsiacontinuestodecline.Since1998,South-EastAsiasshareofworldopiumpoppy cultivation has fallen from 67 per cent to only 12percentin2006.MuchofthishasbeenduetolargedeclinesincultivationinMyanmar,wherecultivationdeclinedafurther34percentto21,500hain2006.Thereareseveralimportantelementstothisdecline.Remarkably, no opium cultivation was observed in theWaregionin2006,whichhadaccountedfor30percent ofnational opium poppy cultivation in the previ-ousyear.Also,contrarytothenationaltrend,alargeincrease in cultivation was observed in the South ShanState,whichincreaseditsshareofnationalcultivationfrom 34 per cent in 2005 to 73 per cent in 2006. Basedon 2006 figures, Myanmar now represents only 11 percentoftheworldopiumpoppycultivation.InLaoPDR,opiumpoppycultivationremainedatverylowlevels in 2006 despite a 700 ha increase to 2,500 ha. IntheAmericas,opiumpoppycontinuestobeculti-vatedforuseintheillicitmarketsinNorthAmerica,although at a much lower level compared to South-WestandSouth-EastAsia.EstimatesbytheGovernmentofColombia put the area under opium poppy cultivationatabout1,000ha.Thesituationasregardsopiumpoppy cultivation in Peru is difficult to quantify as theUNODCsupportednationalillicitcropmonitoringsystemhasnotyetestablishedareliablemethodologyfor the detection of opium poppy. The Governments ofColombia,MexicoandPeruallcontinuetoeradicateopium poppy cultivation. Low levels of opium poppy cultivation continue to existinmanyregionsandcountriessuchastheCaucasianregion,Guatemala,RussianFederation,Thailand,India, Ukraine and Viet Nam. Opium production continues to increase due to higheryieldsContrary to the downward trend in opium poppy cul-tivation, global opium production has increased by onehalfsince1998.In2006,globalopiumproductionincreased by 43 per cent, over 2005, to 6,610 mt. Theincreaseinglobalopiumproductionismorepro-nouncedduetothehigheryieldsachievedbyopiumpoppy farmers in Afghanistan compared to other grow-ingregions.In2006,Afghanistanaloneaccountedfor92 per cent of global production, producing 6,100 mtof opium at an average opium yield of 37 kg/ha. OpiumyieldsinMyanmarrangedfrom8.9kg/hainEastShanStateto16.6kg/hainSouthShanState,wherethetrendtowardsimprovedcultivationtech-niques seems to continue. The national average is 14.6kg/ha. Yield increases over the last years have kept pro-ductionfiguresstabledespitethedecreasesincultiva-tion. At 315 mt in 2006, therefore, the level of opiumproduction remained close to 2005 levels.1.2.2 Production39Prices decrease overall in Afghanistan and increase incontracting markets In Afghanistan, farm-gate prices for dry opium declinedslowly but steadily, reaching US$ 125/kg in December2006comparedtoUS$150/kgoneyearearlier.Regional price differences continued to exist with con-siderablyhigherpricesineasternAfghanistanthanintheSouth,wherethebulkofproductiontakesplace.PriceinallregionsexcepttheNorthdecreasedinthecourseoftheyear2006.Theoverallpricedecrease,althoughmoderatewhencomparedtothelargepro-ductionincrease,isthoughttoreflecttheincreasedsupply of opium in the market. In Myanmar, the farm-gate price for opium increased by23 per cent from US$ 187/kg in 2005 to US$ 230/kgin 2006 at harvest time. Lao PDR has by far the high-est price level for opium with over US$ 500/kg, reflect-ing the scarcity of opium in the country. MostlaboratoriesdismantledintheRussianFedera-tion, Republic of Moldova and Afghanistan, with thenumber increasing in AfghanistanIn 2005, eight countries reported the destruction of lab-oratoriesinvolvedintheillicitmanufactureofopiateswith a total of 844 laboratories destroyed. As in 2004,most laboratories were reported destroyed by the Russ-ianFederation(43percent)followedbytheRepublicof Moldova (33 per cent) and Afghanistan (22 per cent).Laboratories in the Russian Federation and the Repub-lic of Moldova mostly produced acetylated opium fromlocally cultivated opium poppy straw, whereas laborato-riesinAfghanistanproducedmorphineandpartlyheroin.Smallernumbersofdestroyedopium/heroinlaboratories were reported by Colombia (6), Myanmar(4), Belarus, India, and Latvia (all one each). Theincreasingnumberofheroinlaboratoriesdisman-tledinAfghanistanandthevirtualdisappearanceofheroin laboratories from the statistics of other countriesonthetraffickingrouteseemstoconfirmthatAfghanopiumisincreasinglybeingprocessedintomorphineandheroinwithinAfghanistan.Preliminaryreportsofan even higher number heroin laboratories destroyed inAfghanistanin2006furthercorroboratethishypothe-sis.Seizuresofaceticanhydride,aprecursorforcon-vertingopiumintoheroin,confirmtheavailabilityofthis substance in Afghanistan. As acetic anhydride is notproduced locally and given the evidence of heroin pro-duction within Afghanistan, it can be assumed t