world bank education strategy 2020 consultations

World Bank Education Strategy 2020Consultations

How will the world look in 2020?

What will be the demands on education and education systems?

Different population profiles across countries…with faster growth in low-income countries

The rise of new economic starsReal GDP (PPP): Projections 2004-2015 (Using 1991-2003 Average Growth Rates)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Trillions of 1995 international $

India China BrazilCanada France GermanyItaly Japan MexicoRussian Federation United Kingdom United States

India

China

United States

JapanGermany

United Kingdom

France

Italy

Canada

Mexico

Russian Federation

Brazil

Rodriguez, 2008

Economic growth created space for investment

2002 -2007: Developing Countries’ strongest growth in decades

IMF projections as cited in Rodgers, 2008

Short-term growth projections

World Developing countries

2009

2010

2011 2009 2010 2011

Real GDP -2.2 2.7 3.2 1.2 5.2 5.8

Real GDP (PPP)

-1.0 3.5 4.0 1.8 5.5 6.0

• Main drag on global growth comes from high-income countries, with implications for external aid resources • Robust prospects for developing countries for recovery in 2010

Percentage of population living at less than $2/day

1990 2005 2015 2020

East Asia & Pacific 79.8 38.7 19.4 14.3

China 84.6 36.3 16.0 12.0Europe and Central Asia

6.9 8.9 5.0 4.1

Latin America & Caribbean

19.7 16.6 11.1 9.7

Middle East & North Africa

19.7 16.9 8.3 6.6

South Asia 82.7 73.9 57.0 51.0

India 82.6 75.6 58.0 51.9

Sub-Saharan Africa 76.2 73.0 59.6 55.4

Poverty has declined but less so in Africa

Greater pressure on post-primary educationIncrease in net enrollment rates

in primary education Growing demand for secondary

and tertiary educationMore children and youth in

school also from disadvantaged groups

Enrollment gaps between rich and poor remain high

Large differences within regions in education outcomes – so no one size fits all, in terms of education regional strategies

…but

What else has changed since 2000?

Geopolitics and serious security concerns Information and Communication

Technology Partnerships and Paris & Accra declarations Changes within the World Bank

Schooling-Learning CycleFormal schooling

Out-of-school youth

Children & youth in school

Primary level

Secondary level

Tertiary level

ECD

Nutrition, health care, parental training, ECE

Skills training

Training

% learning goals achieved

Beyond enrollment: Learning

11

Proportion of 15-19 year olds who have completed at least each grade

Proportion of 15-19 year olds who can read a simple sentence, by highest grade completed

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Dominican Rep. 2002 Kenya 2003

Mali 2001 Nepal 2001

Philippines 2003

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Dominican Rep. 2002 Kenya 2003

Mali 2001 Nepal 2001

Philippines 2003

New evidence:the contribution of learning to growth

New evidence on the contribution of learning (as opposed to attainment) to economic

growth

Hanushek & Woessmann 2007

World Bank’s priorities for education for 2020

Invest in strengthening education systems so that they canSecure educational opportunity for allAssure education qualityGuide and govern effectively and efficiently

Increase global knowledge and understanding of education challenges and policy throughResearchInnovation and learningPolicy debate

Operating principles

Whole-sector approachGlobal and multisectoral perspective:

reconnect education to development agenda

Develop effective partnershipsMeasure our results & impact

Core indicatorsImpact evaluations

Evidence is not the only influence on policymaking

evidence, expertise & experience

international pressure

national capacity

national lobby & pressure

groups

resources

political pragmatics

EDUCATION POLICY

values, tradition &

culture

Modified from P. Davies

Previous education strategies

Education for All for the knowledge

economyfor cohesive

societiesPriorities:

Education in a countrywide perspective

Sector-wide approach

Results orientation

Quality Education for All Priorities:

Basic education (poor, girls)

Early interventions (ECD, school health)

Innovative delivery Systemic reform

20002000 Update 2005Update 2005

Impact will not be immediate Policies & programs to improve cognitive skills

through schools take time to implementAssume that it will take 20 years to implement

reform Impact of improved skills not realized until

students with those skills join the labor force Economy will respond as new technologies using

higher skills are adopted and implemented

Discussion questions

1. How can the World Bank best support efficient, equitable and durable educational progress? In Low Income Countries? In Fragile and Conflict-afflicted States? In Middle Income Countries?

2. How can the World Bank effectively support improvements in the quality of learning and acquisition of skills?

4. How can the Bank work better with partners?

Website:www.worldbank.org/

educationstrategy2020

Email:[email protected]

Website:www.worldbank.org/

educationstrategy2020

Email:[email protected]

Additional slides following

Education lending portfolio:Active portfolio fy09:$8.8 billion

Focus of fy09 education operations

Almost half supports poorest countries through IDA funds49% supports basic education51% supports post-basic education75% includes teacher development 50% includes learning assessments

44% of total lending to education comes from multi-sector operations

20 projects co-financed by bilateral &multilateral agencies,total funding of $1.2 billion

More than100 knowledge products on education

Timetable for the strategy

Staff consultation (general directions)

Multi-stakeholder internal & external

consultation (specifics of

strategy)

Internal & external

consultation on draft strategy (content &

implementation)

Final approva

l

CODE Review 27th January

Prepare CN,

using comments staff, OVPs

and HD Council

OVP Review June

CODE Review August

BoardOctober

Prepare background notes

Prepare draft

strategy

Prepare full

strategy

Revise full

strategy

Prepare implemen-

tation plans

Prepare annexes

Disseminate strategy

Economic crisis is likely to reduce donor aid

-.4

-.3

-.2

-.1

0.1

Ba

nkin

g c

risis

coe

ffic

ien

ts

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Years after onset of crisis

Note: circles, triangles, and diamonds represent signficance level at 10%, 5%, and 1% respectively.

Dang, Rogers & Knack, 2009

Progress towards education MDGs:Net enrolment rate in primary education

Growing demand for tertiary education:Gross enrolment rate in tertiary education

Enrolment gaps between rich and poor remain high

Large differences between countries in the same region

0 20 40 60 80 100

KenyaZambia

Cape VerdeZimbabwe

Sierra LeoneLesotho

GhanaNamibia

Sao Tome and PrincipeSwaziland

NigeriaCongo, Rep.Gambia, The

BeninGuinea

MadagascarMauritania

TogoCameroon

MalawiLiberia

UgandaMali

Congo, Dem. Rep.ComorosSenegal

SudanEritrea

MozambiqueEthiopia

Cote d'IvoireNiger

BurundiBurkina Faso

RwandaCentral African Republic

ChadGuinea-Bissau

Source: EdStats

Latest yearPrimary Completion Rates: Sub-Saharan Africa

Changes Create Challenges

Increased economic growth gave countries space for education investment

Economic crisis is likely to reduce donor aid

1990 2005 2015 2020Percentage of the population living on less than $1.25/dayEast Asia & Pacific

54.7 16.8 5.9 4.0


2.0 3.7 1.7 1.2


11.3 8.2 5.0 4.3


4.3 3.6 1.8 1.5

South Asia 51.7 40.3 22.8 19.4India 51.3 41.6 23.6 20.3Sub-Saharan Africa

57.6 50.9 38.0 32.8

World 41.7 25.2 15.0 12.8Percentage of the population living on less than $2.00/dayEast Asia & Pacific

79.8 38.7 19.4 14.3


6.9 8.9 5.0 4.1


19.7 16.6 11.1 9.7


19.7 16.9 8.3 6.6


76.2 73.0 59.6 55.4

World 63.2 47.0 33.7 29.8Number of people living on less than $1.25/dayEast Asia & Pacific

873.0 317.0 120.0 83.0


9.0 16.0 7.0 5.0


50.0 45.0 30.0 27.0


10.0 11.0 6.0 6.0


296.0 387.0 366.0 352.0

World 1,817.0 1,371.0 918.0 826.0Number of people living on less than $2.00/dayEast Asia & Pacific

1,274.0 730.0 394.0 299.0


32.0 39.0 22.0 18.0


86.0 91.0 67.0 62.0


44.0 52.0 30.0 26.0

South Asia 926.0 1,091.0 973.0 926.0India 702.0 828.0 728.0 686.0Sub-Saharan Africa

391.0 555.0 574.0 595.0

World 2,754.0 2,557.0 2,060.0

world bank education strategy 2020 consultations

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