world bank document - documents &...

Document of

The World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No: 82491-JM

INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVLOPMENT

PROJECT PAPER

ON A

PROPOSED ADDITIONAL LOAN

IN THE AMOUNT OF US$40.00 MILLION

TO

JAMAICA

FOR A

SOCIAL PROTECTION PROJECT

December 18, 2013

Human Development Sector Management UnitCaribbean Country Management UnitLatin America and the Caribbean Region

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in theperformance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed withoutWorld Bank authorization.

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

(Exchange Rate Effective December 3, 2013)

Currency Unit = Jamaican DollarJM$1 = US$ 0.00967

US$1 = JM$ 103.33

FISCAL YEARJanuary 1 - December 31

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

CPS Country Partnership StrategyFDI Foreign Direct InvestmentsGoJ Government of JamaicaGDP Gross Domestic ProductIMF International Monetary FundMFP Ministry of Finance and PlanningMLSS Ministry of Labour and Social SecurityMIS Management Information SystemNGO Non-Governmental OrganizationOP/BP Operational Policy/Business PolicyOM Operations ManualORAF Operational Risk Assessment FrameworkPAD Project Appraisal DocumentPIOJ Planning Institute of JamaicaPPP Public Private PartnershipSDR Special Drawing RightsSP Social ProtectionSSN Social Safety Net

Vice President: Hasan A. TuluyCountry Director: Sophie SirtaineCountry Manager Giorgio Valentini

Sector Manager: Mansoora RashidTask Team Leaders: Francesca Lamanna/Gonzalo Reyes-Hartley

JAMAICA

ADDITIONAL FINANCING SOCIAL PROTECTION PROJECTCONTENTS

Project Paper Data Sheet

I. Introduction ............... 1II. Background and Rationale for Additional Financing ................ 1III. Proposed Changes...................................5IV. Appraisal Summary ...................................... 7

Mandatory Annexes:

1. Revised Results Framework and Monitoring Indicators .... .............. 132. Operational Risk Assessment Framework ....................... 19

JAMAICA

Additional Financing Social Protection Project (P146606)Latin America and the Caribbean Region

ADDITIONAL FINANCING DATA SHEET

Basic Information - Additional Financing (AF)Country Director: Sophie Sectors: Social Protection (100%)Sirtaine Themes: Social Safety Net. Other SPSector Manager: Mansoora Environmental category: CRashid Expected Closing Date: March 30, 2018Sector Director: Mansoora Joint IFC:Rashid Joint Level:Team Leader: FrancescaLamanna/Gonzalo Reyes-HartleyProject ID: P146606Expected Effectiveness Date:February 28, 2014Lending Instrument: InvestmentProject FinancingAdditional Financing Type:Scale up

Basic Information - Original ProjectProject ID: P105024 Environmental category: CProject Name: Social Protection Expected Closing Date: March 30, 2015Joint Level: Joint IFC:Lending Instrument: Specific Fragility or Capacity Constraints [ ]Investment Loan Financial Intermediary [ ]

Series of Projects [ ]AF Project Financing Data

[x ] Loan [ ] Credit [ ] Grant [ ] Guarantee [ ] Other:Proposed terms: The variable spread Loan has a final maturity of 29.5 years including agrace period of six years.

AF Financing Plan (US$m)Source Total Amount (US$m)

Total Project Cost:Co-financing:Borrower: US$216.04

Total Bank Financing: US$40 mIBRDIDA

New

Recommitted

Client InformationRecipient: Jamaica

Implementing AgenciesMinistry of Labour and Social Security14 National Heroes CircleP.0 Box 512JamaicaTel:876-922-800-13 Fax: 876-924-9639

Ministry of Finance and Planning30 National Heroes CircleP.0 Box 512JamaicaTel:876-922-8600-13 Fax:926-9291

Planning Institute of Jamaica16 Oxford RoadP.0 Box 634JamaicaTel: 876-906-4463 Fax:876-906-3636

AF Estimated Disbursements (Bank FY/US$m)FY 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Annual 21 13 4 1.5 0.5Cumulative 21 34 38 39.5 40

Project Development Objective and DescriptionOriginal Project Development Objective:

The Project Development Objective is to support Jamaica in strengthening its social protectionsystem. To this end, it will: (i) further improve the effectiveness of the Program on AdvancementThrough Health and Education (PATH) to foster investment by poor families in human capitalaccumulation; (ii) develop a structured system for assisting working-age members of PATHeligible households to seek and retain employment; (iii) enable the formulation of a reformprogram for the public sector pension schemes; and (iv) develop a holistic social protectionstrategy.

Additional Financing Project Development Objective:

The original Project Development Objective, to strengthen Jamaica's social protection system, hasnot changed, but new activities, reflecting a natural continuation of the work undertaken under theparent Project, have been added and the results framework has been updated to reflect that.

The proposed Project would support Jamaica in further strengthening its social protection system.

Additional Financing Project description:

Component 1. Improving effectiveness of the PATH (US$34.09 million)

This component will continue to support the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program PATH

through: (i) financing eligible government spending on PATH grants; and (ii) financing theinstitutional strengthening of the PATH program itself. Specifically, support to the PATH willinclude:

Sub-component l.a. Conditional Cash Transfers: Under this sub-component, the additionalfinancing will finance eligible government spending on PATH grants.

Sub-component 1.b. Institutional Strengthening of PATH: This sub-component will continuesupporting activities in three core areas: (i) strengthening and improving administrative systemsfor efficient delivery of PATH benefits; (ii) improving accountability, monitoring, and evaluationof the PATH; and (iii) strengthening the capacity of the Ministry of Labor and Social Security(MLSS) to implement the PATH including scaling up MLSS case management. All the activitiesunder this sub-component will be implemented through the provision of consultant services,training, goods, and operating costs.

Component 2. Improving effectiveness and scale up of Steps-to-Work Program (US$4.80million)

This component will continue to finance strengthening of the capacity to implement the Steps-to-Work (StW) program. Specifically, it will directly finance provision of tailored services to PATHhouseholds' members to facilitate sustainable human capital development and their graduationfrom the program. This will be done via public-private partnerships and the development andoperationalization of a well-functioning monitoring and evaluation system for the Program. Morespecifically, this component will support the: (i) provision of services such as job readiness andskills training, education completion at the secondary level, job placement services, andentrepreneurial training, (ii) provision of stipends to trainees; (iii) capacity strengthening forimplementing StW at central and Parish levels. This would include improving StW design,systems, procedures and tools to provide adequate services to beneficiaries, recruitment andtraining of personnel to coordinate the provision of services and provision of personalizedcoaching to beneficiaries; and (iv) strengthening the StW monitoring and evaluation system,including the design and development of a Management Information System (MIS) for StW whichwould track the trajectories of each StW participant. All the activities under this component willbe implemented through the provision of consultant services, training, goods, stipends, andoperating costs.

Component 3. Supporting implementation and operationalization of the Public Sector PensionReform (US$0.43 million)

This component will finance activities to support the implementation and operationalization of thepension reform for public sector employees. Specifically, it will support: (i) carrying out a publicinformation campaign for public sector workers to inform them of the changes introduced in thepublic sector pension system; (ii) providing technical advisory services to support theimplementation of reform measures contained in the White Paper; (iii) building the capacity of thePensions Administration Unit for using the earning database to capture and record contributionand earning information of public employees; (iv) setting up of the Pensions Policy Unit tomonitor the effective implementation of pension reforms and consolidate analysis and policy ofprivate and public sector employer- provided pension systems; and (v) purchasing of equipmentfor the Human Resource Unit for ministries, departments and agencies to support the pensionadministration. All the activities under this component will be implemented through the provisionof consultant services, training, and goods.

Component 4. Operational Support to the Implementation of the Social Protection Strategy(US$0.58 million)

This component's focus will be to support the operationalization of the Social Protection (SP)Strategy. The following activities will be financed under the AF: (i) dissemination of the strategyto various audiences; (ii) institutional capacity building in key agencies; (iii) policy developmentand formulation in key areas; (iv) research and diagnostic work on relevant priority areas,including, but not limited to poverty and unemployment insurance; and (v) developing amonitoring and evaluation system for the implementation of the social protection strategy. All theactivities under this component will be implemented through the provision of consultant services,training, and goods.

Safeguard and Exception to PoliciesSafeguard policies triggered:Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01) [ ]Yes [x] NoNatural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04) [ ]Yes [x] NoForests (OP/BP 4.36) [ ]Yes [x] NoPest Management (OP 4.09) [ ]Yes [ x] NoPhysical Cultural Resources (OP/BP 4.11) [ ]Yes [ x] NoIndigenous Peoples (OP/BP 4.10) [ ]Yes [ x] NoInvoluntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) [ ]Yes [ x] NoSafety of Dams (OP/BP 4.37) [ ]Yes [ x] NoProjects on International Waterways (OP/BP 7.50) [ ]Yes [ x] NoProjects in Disputed Areas (OP/BP 7.60) [ ]Yes [ x] No

Is approval of any policy waiver sought from the Board [ ]Yes [x] No(or MD if RETF operation is RVP approved)?Has this been endorsed by Bank Management? (Only [ ]Yes [ ] Noapplies to Board approved operations)Does the project require any exception to Bank policy? [ ]Yes [x] NoHas this been approved by Bank Management? [ ]Yes [ ] No

Conditions and Legal Covenants:Financing Agreement Description of Condition/Covenant Date Due

ReferenceArticle V. Para 5.01 Condition for Effectiveness No later than 90 days after the

Borrower shall revise and adopt the date of the Loan Agreement

Social Protection Project OperationsManual

Schedule 2, Section I, Borrower shall implement the Project Throughout ProjectSection B. 1(a) in accordance with the Social Implementation

Protection Project OperationsManual, and the relevant provisionsof the PATH and Steps-to-WorkOperations Manuals

Schedule 2, Section I, Borrower shall update the PATH and No later than 12 months afterSection B.2 Steps-to-Work Operations Manuals effectiveness.

in a manner satisfactory to the Bank

Schedule 2, Section I.D. 2 Borrower will submit, in form and No later than March 31st eachsubstance satisfactory to the Bank, an year during Projectannual internal audit plan for PATH, implementationand thereafter implement such plan

Schedule 2, Section I.D. 3 The Management Information No later than December 31,System of Steps-to-Work shall be 2014 or such later date as thefully operational Bank shall establish by notice

to the Borrower.

I. Introduction

1. This Project Paper seeks the approval of the Executive Directors to provide an additionalLoan in the amount of US$40 million to Jamaica Social Protection Project (P105024/Ln. No.7555-JM).

2. The proposed additional Loan would help finance costs associated with: (i) the operationof the Programme of Advancement Through Health and Education (PATH) and the Steps-to-Work (StW) Program, including scaling up activities and continued support for improving theprogram's effectiveness; (ii) improvements in the public sector pension system administration;and (iii) activities necessary to implement Jamaica's social protection strategy. All of theseactivities have the aim of enhancing the impact of a well-performing Project in Jamaica.

3. Partnership Arrangements. The Bank is coordinating its technical and financial supportwith the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) which is also supporting the SocialProtection agenda in Jamaica with budget support and investment lending. The additionalfinancing would facilitate continued payment of cash grants, which were funded up to 2012 bythe parent Project and earlier this year, from the IADB Loan. The AF would complement theinvestments under the IADB Integrated Social Protection and Labour Programme which focuseson financing: (i) a modified co-responsibility for the PATH program (a parenting education co-responsibility); (ii) the introduction of new technologies for PATH grant payments; (iii)improvements in national employment services; and (iv) the establishment of an on-the-jobtraining pilot for PATH beneficiaries.

II. Background and Rationale for Additional Financing in the Amount of US$40 million

4. Background - Country Context. Jamaica, the largest English speaking country in theCaribbean, is a small upper middle income country with a long history of low levels of growth,high debt and high exposure to shocks and natural disasters. While overall income inequalityremains relatively low compared to the rest of the region, people at the bottom 40 percent of theincome distribution have suffered more than the average household in recent years, andinequality and poverty have been consistently rising since 2008.1 Unemployment hassubstantially increased, especially among women and young people, as 50.3 percent of youngwomen (ages 14 to 24) and 29.5 percent of young men were unemployed in July 2013.2

5. Jamaica was hit hard by the global economic crisis, resulting in tourism and bauxiterevenues plummeting. In addition, Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and remittances declinedand the economy contracted by 1.2 percent on average per year between 2009 and 2011. As inmany other small open economies, economic recovery has been subdued. Moreover, Jamaicafaces difficulties in improving its debt situation, which stands above 140 percent of GDP. Toavert a crisis and return to macroeconomic sustainability and growth, an agreement has been

1 Jamaica Country Economic Memorandum, Unlocking Growth, World Bank Publication, 2011.2 Statistical Institute of Jamaica, data reported for July 2013.

1

reached with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on an ambitious economic reform forUS$932.3 million supported by a four year Extended Fund Facility approved in May, 2013.3

6. Sector Context. Consistent with international best practice and the need to rationalizespending, in 2002 the Government of Jamaica (GoJ) developed a safety net program -Program ofAdvancement through Health and Education (PATH) to protect the poor, while at the same timeimproving their human capital. Since its initiation the Government of Jamaica financed themajority of PATH costs. The program has improved the efficiency and coverage of existingsocial safety net (SSN) programs through the implementation of a beneficiary identificationsystem that relies on a proxy means test to target beneficiaries. The identification system is nowused for other SSN programs, including school feeding subsidies and some Poor Relief benefits.In response to the global crisis which increased socio-economic stress on poor and vulnerablefamilies, the GoJ significantly increased the coverage of PATH. In late 2010, the GoJ alsopiloted a small scale up program aimed at improving the employability and productivity ofPATH beneficiaries with the objective to graduate beneficiaries from the program and toimprove its sustainability. Government is now in the process of formally defining the graduationstrategy for PATH, which will be implemented nationwide starting next year.

7. In parallel in 2010, aware of the fiscal pressure of public sector pension expenditures, theGovernment embarked on a significant reform program for the public sector pension schemethrough the preparation of a parametric reform package that includes increasing retirement ages,reducing accrual rates, introducing contributions, moving away from final salary as a basis forthe calculation of pension benefits and improvements in the related administration andinformation systems. Moreover, over the past year the Government of Jamaica further committedto establishing an effective Social Protection Strategy aimed at reducing poverty andvulnerability through the formulation of Vision 2030 Jamaica - National Development Plan.

8. Project Background. The parent Social Protection Project is a US$40 million Loan tothe GoJ, which was approved on May 13, 2008, and became effective on October 10, 2008. TheProject's Development Objective (PDO) is to support Jamaica in strengthening its socialprotection system through: (i) improving the effectiveness of the PATH to foster investment bypoor families in human capital accumulation; (ii) developing a structured system for assistingworking-age persons of PATH households seek and retain employment; (iii) enabling theformulation of a reform program for the pension schemes of public sector workers; and (iv)developing a social protection strategy. Following the GoJ request of April 23, 2013, the Projectclosing date was extended from September 30, 2013 to March 30, 2015.

9. Current Project Performance. Achievement of the PDO and implementation progressfor the original Project are both rated Moderately Satisfactory. Several targets, and all but one ofthe performance milestones, have been achieved. Some activities have, however, been delayed,

' International Monetary Fund Extended Fund Facility, May 2013.4 Among the milestones achieved: Cabinet approved adjustments in PATH base benefits for inflation, new PATHBenefit Review Mechanism operational, payment and compliance reports can be generated automatically by theManagement information system, baseline for the impact evaluation collected, MLSS service standards for PATHadopted, process evaluation completed, targeting assessment completed and PATH targeting methodology and BIS

2

and further significant improvements are needed, particularly in improving compliance andensuring a well-functioning management information system. A number of key reports wererecently completed- targeting assessment, impact evaluation and PATH and Steps-to-Workinstitutional assessments- and their recommendations will be gradually put in place. All thesuggested improvements to increase effectiveness of the program, including financing therevamped case management, will also be the main focus of the AF.

10. To date, US$39.4 million has been disbursed, equivalent to approximately 98.5 percent ofthe total Loan. Component l.a., Cash Grants, (the largest component of the Project) disbursedfully in early 2013. Project procurement and financial management (FM) performance remainsatisfactory and moderately satisfactory, respectively. The Bank team will continue to work withthe GoJ to ensure satisfactory FM performance and mitigate control weaknesses.

11. Rationale for Additional Financing. The proposed AF aims at providing further supportto Jamaica's social protection system, through continued financing for refining and scaling upactivities initiated successfully by the parent Project, in a time of budget constraints. As a largeProgram with demonstrated ability to reach a wide share of the poor' and to have a positiveimpact on human capital formation, the country's CCT program PATH has been central in thedomestic policy response of the Government of Jamaica to the global economic crisis. This hasbeen reflected in increases in both the cash grants levels and higher coverage. In addition, theGovernment has been implementing, on a small scale, additional activities that enhance theProgram's impact and development effectiveness, including supporting a strategy to graduatebeneficiaries from the Program. The GoJ has piloted initiatives to further improve investments inhuman capital, and support the improvements of employability and productivity of PATHbeneficiaries (via Steps-to-Work and the reform of the MLSS's case management processes).

12. The AF would benefit from the lessons learned during the implementation of the parentProject and improvements and recommendations highlighted in recently completed assessments

6and reports. These lessons highlighted the urgency to revise transfer schemes includingdifferentiated payments for girls and boys, the need for increasing coordination and articulationwith other programs and services, as well as the need to move towards a more personalizedsupport for families, all with the objective of improving the effectiveness of PATH and Steps-to-Work Programs in their scale up. In parallel, the AF would support the implementation of thepublic sector pension reform and the operationalization of the social protection strategy, whichformulation were financed under the parent Project.

13. The implementation of a graduation strategy within the PATH Program supports the longterm sustainability of this Program by increasing its efficiency. At the same time, public sectorpension reform is expected to deliver significant savings to public expenditure and avoid further

revised after the Targeting Assessment. The Project completed two recertification exercises; however, the milestonewas not achieved.

"Targeting assessment of the Programme for Advancement through Health and Education", G.A. Gibbison, 2013and "Evaluation of Jamaica's PATH Program: Final Report", D. Levy and J. Oh1s, MATHEMATICA Policy.6 Impact Evaluation of the Programme of Advancement through Health and Education, Final Quantitative ImpactEvaluation Report, Sanigest, October 2013. Impact Evaluation of the Programme of Advancement through Healthand Education, Report on Child & Parent Interviews, Sanigest, October 2013.

3

increases in implicit liabilities in the medium term. Consistent with fiscal consolidation efforts,the operationalization of the Social Protection Strategy will enable the rationalization of socialprograms under a coherent policy umbrella and improve the efficiency of these programs torespond to crises.

14. Strategic Alignment: The proposed AF represents a natural continuation of activitiesfinanced under the original operation. It is fully aligned with the World Bank Group's CountryPartnership Strategy (CPS) 2010-2013 (Report No.52849-JM), discussed by the ExecutiveDirectors on March 23, 2010, in particular to Pillar II. Promoting Inclusive Growth, ResultsArea 2: Strengthen Human Capital. Furthermore, the AF is being informed by ongoingconsultations on the forthcoming CPS, to ensure continuity over the next four years, and supportto sustainable, inclusive, private sector-led growth. The PATH Program and theoperationalization of the Social Protection strategy are in accord with the new CPS pillar onresilience; the public sector pension reforms are in line with the strengthening governance pillar;and the Steps-to-Work Program with the resilience and private sector led growth pillar (by virtueof its emphasis on enhanced skills and employability of the vulnerable population).

15. The AF is aligned with the country's National Development Plan, and would contributeto the achievement of the first national goal, which seeks to empower Jamaicans to achieve theirfullest potential. Through the NDP, the GoJ has placed significant emphasis on improving socialprotection and labor outcomes in the country. National outcomes expected from the execution ofthe NDP include effective social protection; world-class education and training; a healthy andstable population; and a technology enabled society, among others.

16. Finally, the operation is directly in line with the World Bank Group's objectives ofalleviating extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity. PATH grants are targeted to thepoorest households in the population. These grants provide economic support and co-responsibilities which ultimately help them escape poverty, build human capital and create astrong workforce for future generations. The AF also supports Steps-to-Work Program as a meanfor PATH beneficiaries to transit into gainful employment and income generating activities,promoting the objective of shared prosperity and inclusive growth.

17. Alternatives to AF. The alternatives to additional financing considered were to: (i)increase counterpart funding, (ii) seek support from other donors, and (iii) prepare a self-standingoperation. Given the difficult fiscal environment in Jamaica, with an active fiscal consolidationprogram aimed at reducing public debt, increasing counterpart funding would have beenunlikely. Financing needs for the consolidated public sector are well above available resources inthe local financial market, and while rationalization and increased effectiveness of other socialprotection programs is expected in the years to come, an important source of funding to sustainthe social safety net system is through external financing. While other donors have providedfinancial support, there still remains a major gap in funding. The ongoing IMF economicprogram calls for safeguarding and strengthening the social protection programs, with theobjective of protecting poor households from the potential adverse consequences of thegovernment austerity measures in the short run. This makes it both necessary and urgent tocontinue to support the effectiveness and reach of PATH. Given the full alignment with theparent Project's development objective, it's program and the possibility of using the same

4

implementation mechanisms which have worked well over the past years, and that a newoperation would incur unnecessary transaction costs for preparation both for the Bank and theGovernment, it was decided that an additional financing would be a more suitable optioncompared to preparing a new operation.

18. Compliance: The proposed AF is in compliance with the provisions of OP/BP 10.00-Investment Project Financing. All legal covenants for the parent Project have been compliedwith.

III. Proposed Changes

19. Implementation Arrangements: There are no significant changes in institutional,financial management, and procurement arrangements from those described in the ProjectAppraisal Document for the original Project.

20. The proposed additional financing would maintain the original four components:improving effectiveness of PATH, supporting the graduation strategy for PATH via the Steps-to-Work Program, supporting the implementation of the public sector pension reform, and supportfor the social protection strategy. The results matrix in Annex 1 shows the expected changes inindicators.

21. Components: Changes will be made to Component 1.b, and Components 2,3 and 4.Component 1.b will be scaled-up to include some additional costs to support the MLSS' casemanagement and graduation strategy, by financing recruitment and training of additional socialworkers. As such, the allocation for this sub-component will increase to reflect the additionalresources needed. The allocation for Component 2 will also be increased to provide additionalsupport for directly financing the service delivery of some customized Steps-to-Work services(i.e. customized training, etc. when provided by the private sector), stipends for beneficiaries oftrainings, and improvements needed in STW monitoring and evaluation system. For Components3 and 4, changes will be made to finance the implementation of the public sector pension reformand to support the operationalization of the social protection strategy, respectively.

22. Retroactive financing: The total amount of retroactive financing under the AF will be upto US$8 million for eligible expenses under sub-component 1.a, PATH Cash Grants. Under thissub-component the retroactive financing will cover payments to beneficiaries starting from June14, 2013.

23. Disbursement Arrangements: There is a change introduced in the disbursementarrangements for sub-component L.a. on Cash Grants. Different from the parent Project, thepercentages of reimbursements of PATH cash grants would not be linked to key performancemilestones of technical improvements in the Program, and given the Government budgetconstraints would finance grants for children and youth of PATH at 100 percent. A newConditional Cash Transfer is being introduced to finance stipends for eligible working agemembers of PATH families that participate in relevant STW trainings provided under component2. A segregated Designated Account will be established for the Additional Financing.

5

24. Counterpart funding: PATH cash transfers to children will be financed totally by theWorld Bank until the category Cash Grants is fully disbursed. The GoJ will continue financing at100 percent the cash grants to poor adults, elderly and disabled (see table below). All activitiesunder the Institutional and Operational Strengthening of PATH and Steps-to-Work componentswill be financed by the World Bank, with the exception of case management and the package oflabour activation services to support the graduation of PATH beneficiaries which will be co-financed with the GoJ. The accounts will be maintained in such a way to show that the Bank andGovernment are adequately funding their shares in the overall program.

PATH Cash Grants estimated disbursement by FY in US$ million by source of financing

Fiscal Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

IBRD 0.00 20.00 8.04 0.00 0.00IADB 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Government of Jamaica 19.50 24.00 42.57 58.19 63.25Total Per AnnumTotalerAn um 39.50 44.00 50.60 58.19 63.25

(US$Million)

25. Closing dates. The closing date of the Project would be March 30, 2018. The closingdate of the original Loan would also be extended to match the closing date of the AF.

26. Results Framework. Based on the experience under the original Project, the additionalactivities and the extension of the closing dates, some changes of indicators and targets areproposed.

27. Project Costs. The revised Project costs by components are provided below.

Costs by com ponentsComponent Original cost Changes with AF Revised cost

1: Improving effectiveness 36.360 34.083 70.443of PATH

l.a. Conditional Cash 32.000 28.035 60.035Transfer

1.b. Institutional 4.360 6.048 10.408Strengthening of PATH2: Steps-to-Work 2.140 4.800 6.9403: Pension Reform 0.900 0.434 1.3344: Social Protection Strategy 0.500 0.583 1.0835: Front-end Fee 0.100 0.100 0.200Total 40.000 40.000 80.00

6

IV. Appraisal Summary

28. Economic Analysis. The AF remains economically justified. The continuing support tothe PATH program will enable the GoJ to maintain the results that have been achieved so far interms of investments in human capital accumulation and reduction of poverty. The secondimpact evaluation of the program (Sanigest, 2013) found that PATH continues to be effective inincreasing school attendance and PATH beneficiaries are more likely to attend schools withfeeding programs and to obtain HepB3 vaccinations. In addition, PATH households consume onaverage J$400 (around US$4) more per month in non-food items than comparable households.

29. The 2013 evaluation of PATH (Sanigest, 2013) also indicates that 51 percent of PATHbeneficiaries are below the food poverty line. It is important to stress that the Program coverageincreased largely over the past decade and it is only now undertaking the first process ofrecertification of beneficiaries which will ensure better targeting of the program. PATH is in theprocess of introducing a regular recertification process in the procedures of the Program, keyelement of the exit and graduation strategy of the program.

30. The impact evaluation also shows that PATH fosters linkages to other social programs,with PATH household members, males in particular, more likely to participate in other socialprograms. The AF will foster investments in improving linkages and will directly financeprovision of services with the objective to support the graduation of PATH beneficiaries from thePATH program. The implementation of the graduation strategy presented here and financedunder the AF, combined with the cost saving under the public sector pension reform,7 supportand further improve the economic and fiscal justification for the AF.

31. Safeguard Policies. The Environmental category for the Project remains C given that nosignificant environmental impacts are foreseen.

7 Expenditure on public pensions is expected to double as a percentage of GDP in the next 30 years, reaching morethan 2.2 percent of GDP by 2042, in the absence of any reform effort. Implicit pension debt is currently estimated at40 percent of GDP.

7

Annex 1: Results Framework and MonitoringJamaica: AF Social Protection Project

Results Framework

Revisions to the Results Framework Comments/Rationale for Change

PDO

Current (PAD) ProposedThe Project will support The Project will support Jamaica in further The PDO for the Parent Project isJamaica in strengthening its strengthening its social protection system. on track to be achieved.social protection system. Tothis end, it will: (i) further The PDO for the AF has notimprove the effectiveness of changed in substance, but has beenthe Program for Advancement simplified to distinguish betweenThrough Health and Education the main objective of the Project(PATH) to foster investment and activities to achieve it.by poor families in humancapital accumulation; (ii)develop a structured systemfor assisting working-agemembers of PATH eligiblehouseholds seek and retainemployment; (iii) enable theformulation of a reformprogram for the public sectorpension schemes; and (iv)develop a holistic socialprotection strategy.strengtheningitssocialprPDO indicators

Current (PAD) Proposed change*Net change in school Target to be measured up to 2014 only The information from the impactattendance by PATH students evaluation will inform on thisat secondary level for boys and Original target: 0.5 additional days net indicator achievement. As anothergirls. compared to control group impact evaluation is not scheduled,

this indicator will be tracked onlyup to 2014.

Net Change in secondary Target to be measured up to 2014 only The information from the impactschool completion rate of evaluation will inform on thisPATH students-boys and girls. Original target: 8 percentage points indicator achievement. As another

impact evaluation is not scheduled,this indicator will be tracked only

up to 2014.Reduction in poverty gap Drop indicator This target is outside the scope andamong poor PATH households timeframe of Project operations

and could not be measured.Steps-to-Work Roll-Out New: Steps-to-Work Roll-Out strategy A first draft of the StW Roll-OutStrategy informed by pilot revised to support PATH's Graduation Strategy has been developed andfindings adopted. Strategy. under AF, StW will be revised to

support graduation by providing apackage of labor activationservices.

8


White Paper for Public Drop indicator This target has been achieved.Pension Reform submitted toCabinetNew retirees receive pension 4 New: Average time retirees receive Minor revision to the indicator tomonths after submitting their pension after submitting their claims to improve measurement.papers to Pension Pension Administration'AdministrationSocial Protection Reform New: Monitoring and Evaluation Target likely achieved by time ofStrategy submitted to Cabinet Framework for the Social Protection AF approval, and new activities to

Strategy in place be implemented to facilitateoperationalizing the strategy.

Intermediate Results indicators

Current (PAD) Proposed change*Enrollment at secondary level New Target: 85% The Project has met the originalfor poor children (Q1) aged 15 Original Target: 81% target, with the Ministry reportingto 16 years. 85% (JSLC 2010).

Avg. daily attendance (sent to New Target: 18.1 days The current achievement is 17.9school) of children in Q1 at Original Target: 18.5 days days according to the JSLC (2010).primary levelAvg. daily attendance (sent to New Target: 18.1 days The current achievement is 18 daysschool) of children (Q1) at Original Target: 18.5 days according to the JSLC (2010).secondary levelShare of PATH children Revised targets: Several factors have contributed toattending school 85% of the the inability to reach these targets,time: Primary Level: and the need for targets to bePrimary Level: Boys - 85% revised, principally the impact of

Boys Girls - 87% repeated crises (fuel, food andGirls Secondary Level: financial) on poverty since 2008

Secondary Level: Boys - 76% and high transport costs,Boys Girls - 86% particularly at the secondary level.Girls

Original Targets: The current share for primary levelis 84.5% for boys and 86.5% for

Primary Level: girls. At the secondary level, theBoys - 86% share is 71.5% for boys and 81.5%Girls - 86% for girls. AF will introduce

Secondary Level: activities to support meetingBoys - 84% compliance targets, for instanceGirls - 85% transportation allowance of J$ 100

to J$400 per child (chronicallynon-compliant).

Share of children visiting Proposed New: Share of PATH children Health visit targets have not beenhealth centers: complying with health conditions: achieved and need to be revised.

< 1 year For children less than 1 year, the1-3 years Revised Targets: current target is 80%. AF will

< 1 year - 90% introduce activities to support1-3 years -75% meeting compliance targets.

Original Targets:

9


< 1 year - 92%1-3 years -80%

% of children in Q1 registered Revised Target: 72% This information will be sourcedfor PATH Original Target: 64% from the targeting assessment

% of beneficiaries in Q1 Revised Indicator: % of PATH Targeting assessmentbeneficiaries in Q1 Original target achieved, target

revised to meet improvements inRevised Target: 62% targeting of the program. ForOriginal Target: 53% reporting purposes, it was agreed

that the share of beneficiaries inQ1 that are elderly, children,disabled etc. would be measured.

% recertification of PATH Revised Indicator: Number of PATH Target and unit of measurementfamilies with children due to families due for recertification and are not revised due to a change in thebe recertified after 4 years of previously recertified, that are recertified government policy onenrolment (cumulative) after 4 years. recertification, supported by the

creation of a Recertification Unit.New Target: 75,000 (37,500 year 2, and37,500 year 4)PATH families recertified

Original Target: 95%PATH Spending as a % of Drop indicator Target achievedGDPGovernment spending on Drop indicator Tracking of SP spending as aSocial Protection as a % of percent of GDP has not beenGDP regularly tracked by MLSS and has

fluctuated.% of new beneficiaries receive Revised Target: 75% The trend for this target is 63% as1st payment according to Original Target: 80% at February, 2013.service standards% of PATH payments Drop indicator Target achieveddelivered to 13 parish officesby the 13th of the paymentmonthSystem of Process Evaluation, No changeinternal audit and quality Original Target: Internal Audit every 4controls with spot checks in month// PE every 2 yearsplacePATH targeting assessment Revised Indicator: Targeting assessmentand impact Evaluation and graduation assessment completed.Completed

New Targets: Targeting Assessment donein 2016, graduation assessment completedin 2017

Twelve Centers are equipped, Drop indicator Target achievedstaffed and ready to deliverservicesGreen Paper Prepared Drop indicator Target achieved

Paper on Harmonization of Drop indicator This has been completed

10


Public Sector Pension schemessubmitted to CabinetVulnerable Groups Drop indicator Both studies have been completed.Identification and SocialSafety Net review studiesconducted2nd Review of targeting Drop indicator This has been completedmechanism (BIS)Proposed new indicators

A case management module for themanagement information system isdeveloped to facilitate tracking of casemanagement and StW interventionsPercent of families receiving interventionsaccording to their classification in theresilience index.

Target: 80%Percent of recertified PATH households This would become a PDOfrom Group 2 that graduate from PATH indicator. Graduation would beafter signing the development plan and two determined by moving to Group 3years of interventions. after the household is recertified

after the 2 years of intervention,Target: 90% which should be defined.Number of MOUs with agreed results and MOUs with Ministry of Education,monitoring framework signed. Ministry of Health and other

Government agencies.Target: 3Percent of referrals that result in This indicator relates to the MOUsparticipation in services and requires registration for each

service in the MIS.Target: 50%Number of working-age members ofPATH households targeted for graduationthat receive skills certification

Target: 1,000Percent of persons in PATH householdstargeted for graduation that are in Group 2,and are employed after 3 years as definedby their status in the resilience index.

Target: 25%Percentage of businesses that attain amoderate/high sustainability index rating.

Target: 60%Percentage of staff in PensionsAdministration Unit trained to use theEarnings database

Target: 100%

11


Pensions Policy Unit at Ministry ofFinance EstablishedEstablishment of the National SocialProtection CoalitionDissemination of Social ProtectionStrategy to stakeholders

12

REVISED PROJECT RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING INDICATORS

Project Development Objective (PDO):

The Project will support Jamaica i further strengtheing its socal protection system.Baseline Cumulative Target ValuesOriginal Progress Responsibility

PDO Level Results Indicators Q UOM Project To Date 2014 2015 2016 2017 Frequency Data Source! for Data CommentsStart (2013) Methodology Collection(2008)

1) Net change in school As anotherattendance by PATH students at PATH impactsecondary level for boys and already evaluation is

girls. Number increased 0.0 +0.5 N/A N/A N/A Once Impact PIOJ/MLSS not scheduled,(days) Evaluation this indicator

by 0.5 will bedays tracked only

up to 2014.

2) Net Change in secondary As anotherschool completion rate of PATH impactstudents-boys and girls. evaluation is

not scheduled,this indicatorwill betracked only

E Number N/A 0.0 +0.5 N/A N/A N/A Once Impact PIOJ/MLSS up to 2014.(days) Evaluation Basehne

report should

provideinformationon thebaseline andwould be

sought.3) Percent of recertified PATHhouseholds from Group 2 that Recertificationgraduate from PATH after E Percent 0 N/A N/A N/A 90% Annual ReportPIOJ/MLSSsigning the development planand two years of interventions.

8 UOM = Unit of Measurement.

13

Project Development Objective (PDO):

The Project will support Jamaica in further strengthening its soctal protection system.Baseline Cumulative Target ValuesOriginal Progress Responsibility

PDO Level Results Indicators Q UOM Project To Date 2014 2015 2016 2017 Frequency Data Source! for Data CommentsStart (2013) Methodology Collection(2008)

4) Steps-to-Work Roll-Out Strategy Revised StWstrategy revised to support E Yes Stcotgy submitted eN/A N/A Once Strategy PIOJ/MLSS

PATH's Graduation Strategy. to cabinet document

5) Average time retirees receivepension after submitting their Number 8 months 7 months 7 m 5 m 4 Progress0 8 onts 7monhs monhs moths 4 mnths 3 mnth AnualMoFPclaims to Pension (months) ReportAdministration.6) Monitoring and Evaluation StrategyFramework for the Social approved

Protection Strategy in place. SP by Cabinet. Reporting andStrategy Indicators information Annual M&E tracking

ED Yes submitted to monitor systems reports N/A Annual system PIOJ

to Cabinet implementa designed generatedtion of SPstrategydefined

BeneficiariesNumber Difference

between7) Project beneficiaries 277,000 388,000 418,000 454,000 490,000 520,000 Every 4 PATH BMIS MLSS natural

months attrition andnewapplications

Number8) Of which female N 202,000 209,000 227,000 245,000 260,000 Every 4 PATH BMIS MLSS(beneficiaries) months

9) Enrollment at secondary level Percentfor poor children (Q1) aged 15 E (2006) (2010) 85% 85% 85% 85% Annual JSLC PIOJto 16 years.10) Avg. daily attendance (sent Numberto school) of children in Q1 at E (days) 17.8 17.9 18 18.1 18.1 18.1 Annual JLSC PIOJprimary level (2006) (2010)

14

Intermediate Results and Indicators

Baseline Target ValuesOriginal Progress Data Source! Responsibility

Intermediate Results Indicators Q UOM Project To Date 2014 2015 2016 2017 Frequency DataoSoc for Data CommentsStart (2013) Methodology Collection(2008)

Intermediate Result 1: Improved effectiveness of PATH to foster investment in improved human capital accumulation bypoorfamilies

Component L.a11) Avg. daily attendance (sent

toscoo) f hidrn Qi a w Number 17.5 18to school) of children (Q1) (days) (2006) (2010) 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 Annual JLSC PIOJsecondary level

12) Share of PATH childrenattending school 85% of the E PercenttimePrimary Level:

BoysEvr4B Percent 84% 84.5% 85% 85% 85% 85% Every 4 PATH MIS MLSS

months

GirlsE Percent 85% 86.5% 87% 87% 87% 87% Every 4 PATH MIS MLSS

months

Secondary Level:

BoysPercent 80% 71.5% 73% 74% 75% 76% Every 4 PATH MIS MLSS

months

GirlsPercent 80% 81.5% 83% 84% 85% 86% Every 4 PATH MIS MLSS

months

13) Share of PATH childrencomplying with health Percentconditions:

< 1 year4< Percent 90% 80% 81% 85% 90% 90% Every 4 PATH MIS MLSS

months

15



Intermediate Results Indicators , UOM Project To Date 2014 2015 2016 2017 Frequency for Data CommentsStart (2013) Collection(2008)

1-3 years E Percent 75% 62% 65% 70% 75% 75% Every 4 PATH MIS MLSSmonths

Component 1.b

14) % of children in Q1 72% Targetingregistered for PATH E Percent (JSLC N/A N/A 72% N/A 2016 mnt PIOJ/MLSS

2010) Assmn

15) % of PATH beneficiaries in BaselineQ1 Targeting Targeting

E Percent 59% 60.4 N/A N/A 62% N/A 2016 Assessment PIOJ/MLSS Assessment2016 2013-food

poverty line

16) Number of PATH familiesdue for recertification and are

no pevoulyrcetiie, ha Number 0 TBD N/A 37,500 N/A 37,500 Biennial PATH MIS MLSSnot previously recertified, thatare recertified after 4 years.17) % of new beneficiaries PR based onreceive 1st payment according to Percent 63% (Feb 70% 75% 75% 75% Annually MIS andservice standards 2013) Process

evaluation18) System of process Internalevaluation, internal audit and Internal audits Internal audits Internal Audit

quality controls with spot checks Internal and spot and spot audits and every 4 Progress

in place audits every checks checks spot checks months/ Every 4 Report;E Yes 4 months/ PE conducted and conducted and conducted PE every months; Process MLSS

every 2 years responses responses and 2 years. Biennial evaluation

prepared prepared. PE responses (PE reportsconducted prepared. conducted

19)Targeting assessment and Targeting Graduatio Targetinggraduation assessment assessment Targeting n assessment andcompleted H Yes completed; Assessment Assessme Annual graduation PIOJ/MLSS

Impact done nt assessmentevaluationdoen

near completed reportsnear

16



Intermediate Results Indicators , UOM Project To Date 2014 2015 2016 2017 Frequency for Data Commentso Start (2013) Collection

(2008)completion

20) A case management modulefor the management information No case Case Interventions Interventions Tracking of

system is developed to facilitate Yes management Management tracked for tracked for all case Once PATH MIS MLSSmodule module Group 2 Group 1 managementtracking of case management exists in MIS designed beneficiaries beneficiaries interventionsand StW interventions.21) Percent of families receiving Caseinterventions according to their Percent 0 N/A 70% 75% 80% Annual Management MLSSclassification in the resilience Module - PATHindex. MIS22) Percent of recertified PATHhouseholds from Group 2 thatgraduate from PATH after E Percent 0 N/A N/A 85% 90% Bi-annual PATH MIS MLSS/PIOJsigning the development planand two years of interventions.23) Number of MOUs withagreed results and monitoring E Number 3 2 3 3 N/A Once Progress MLSS/PIOJframework signed.

Intermediate Result 2: Develop a structured system for assisting working-age members of PATH eligible households seek and retain employmentComponent 224) Percent of referrals that Caseresult in participation in services H Percent 0 N/A 40% 45% 50% Annual Management MLSS

Module(PATH MIS)

25) Number of working-agemembers of PATH households H Number 0 N/A 1,000 1,000 1,000 Biennial MIS MLSStargeted for graduation thatreceive skills certification

17


Baseline Target ValuesOriginal Progress Responsibility

Intermediate Results Indicators , UOM Project To Date 2014 2015 2016 2017 Frequency for Data Commentsa Start (2013) Collection

(2008)26) Percent of persons in PATHhouseholds targeted forgraduation that are in Group 2, E Percent 0 N/A 15% 20% 25% Annual PATH MIS MLSSand are employed after 3 yearsas defined by their status in theresilience index.27) Percentage of businesses thatattain a moderate/high E Percent 0 60% 60% 60% 60% Annual PATH MIS MLSSsustainability index rating

Intermediate Result 3: Enable the formulation of a reform program for the public sector pension schemesComponent 328) Percent of staff in PensionsAdministration Unit trained to E Percent 0 0 30 60 100 Annual Progress MoFP

Reportuse the Earnings database29) Pensions Policy Unit at Unit ProgressMinistry of Finance Established E Yes 0 Established Once Report MoFP

Intermediate Result 4: Develop a holistic social protection strategy.

Component 430) Establishment of the Every 4 ProgressNational Social Protection E 2 meetings 2 meetings 2 meetings 2 meetings mons Report PIOJ

Coalition31) Dissemination of Social Every 4 ProgressProtection Strategy to E 3 meetings 3 meetings 3 meetings mons Report PIOJ

stakeholders

18

Annex 2:-Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF)JAMAICA: AF Social Protection Project (P146606)

Stage: Board

Project Stakeholder Risks Rating M (Moderate)

Description: Risk Management:

MLSS is developing a graduation strategy from PATH articulated around activation and case

1. Given the current fiscal situation, if the Government of management to facilitate households' graduation from PATH, improve their human capital,Jamaica (GoJ) is not successful in putting in place a resilience and income security, optimizing existing limited resources. The development of the

graduation and exit strategy for PATH beneficiaries, the GoJ graduation strategy is an integral part of the IMF program and therefore expected to be submitted to

might not be in a position to support cash transfers and cabinet this year and start implementation next year.

complementary productive activities for beneficiaries over

time.

Resp: Client Stage: Implementation Due Date : Recurrent Status: Ongoing

2. Pension reform may face resistance from public sector Risk Management: Public sector employees and unions have been involved in the discussions

employees who will see themselves affected by cost saving leading to the reform. A strong communication and information campaign will be implemented,measures focusing on the gradual implementation of the main measures.

Resp: Client Stage: Implementation Due Date : Recurrent Status: Ongoing

Implementing Agency Risks (including fiduciary)

Capacity Rating: S (Substantial)

Description: Risk Management:

1. Although the implementing agency has improved in this Given the risks related to the overall financial management system, and in line with the experience

matter, financial management represents a substantial risk, from the first social protection project, financial management capacity and systems will need to be

due in particular to the increased number of beneficiaries and strengthened and close supervision will be required.

the risk of corruption. Specific risk areas include: procedures The Bank will conduct a risks-based supervision in particular on financial reports as well as the

for handling uncollected checks; delays in the reconciliation project's annual audited financial statements, on-site supervision missions and joint FM and

19

of the beneficiary accounts; deficiencies in the management procurement contract post-reviews will be conducted once a year.of beneficiary complaints; weaknesses in the integrity of theMIS.

Resp: Bank/client Stage: Prep / imp Due Date : Recurrent Status: On going

2. The management team is agile and efficient; however, given Risk Management:the changes entailed in the graduation strategy, the team The additional financing will support the recruitment of key staff to develop new activities in

might be too small and overstretched. This could be particular linked with case management and graduation.

particularly accentuated by the diversification of tasks andstrategic priorities under the additional financing. Resp: Client Stage: Prep/imp Due Date : Recurrent Status: On going

Governance Rating: Moderate (M)Description:

Risk Management:

Limited coordination and timely collaboration among Project MLSS and PIOJ will organize regular meetings with other implementing agencies and partners in

Implementation Unit (PIUs) and partners in implementation: the implementation under this Project to ensure effective coordination and timely responses. The task

sharing of information among the various PIUs and partners in team, during supervision missions, will ensure this coordination meetings are organized.

implementation might not be sufficient, which could delayappropriate decision-making and implementation. Resp: Bank/Client Stage: Implementation Due Date : Recurrent Status: On going

Project RisksDesign Rating: S (Substantial)Description: Risk Management:1. Targeting: Given the large numbers of families in need of Based on the finding of the targeting assessment the PMT has been revised to better target

social assistance through PATH and Steps-to-Work, the beneficiaries and will continue to be closely monitored to ensure that the neediest are indeed in theprogram might not be able to target and include all the people program. The Recertification process will also ensure that the people enrolled in the program arein need. Moreover, the political will to support the the poorest. In order to ensure that the recertification process takes place in a timely manner, therecertification process and remove people no longer eligible for World Bank is exploring the possibility of introducing the policy decision on recertification in thethe Program from the PATH might fail. upcoming Developing Policy Lending operation.

Resp: Client Stage: Prep / impl. Due Date : Recurrent Status: On going

2.Attendance: It has been observed that compliance rates for Risk Management:boys have been lower than that recorded for girls despite the As part of the case management strategy developed by the Ministry, social workers will monitorpayment of higher benefits. In addition compliance rates for closely attendance of children at all levels and will work with families to ensure highest investmentprimary school students have been on the decline. in children human capital accumulation.


3. Steps-to-Work: due to the economic situation there might be Risk Management:

20

fewer opportunities for Steps-to-Work beneficiaries to find job Selection of training providers to be contracted will need to depend on the links of the contractoropportunities at the end of the training. with employers and the private sector in order to increase the chances of beneficiaries


Social & Environment Rating: L (Low)Description: Risk Management:

n/aThere are no significant environmental or safeguard issuesrelated to this project. Resp: n/a Stage: n/a Due Date : n/a Status: n/a

Program & Donor Rating: L (Low)Description: Risk Management:

Lack of donor coordination could affect the efficient use of funds PIOJ has put in place an effective mechanism of coordination mechanism to minimize risks ofto achieve expected development outcomes. In particular, the duplication.Inter-American Development Bank is also supporting the GoJ inpension reform and labor markets, so it is important that efforts Resp: Bank Stage: Prep/impl Due Date : Recurrent Status: On goingare not duplicated.Delivery Monitoring & Sustainability Rating: S (Substantial)Description: Risk Management:

The GoJ is working on a graduation strategy to ensure better sustainability of the program. TheFiscal Sustainability: A major concern is PATH and Steps-to- graduation policy is an integral part of the IMF program. In addition to that, to improve fiscalWork fiscal sustainability and future financing. sustainability of the social protection system, the operationalization of the social protection strategy

will help to further rationalize spending in the sector.

Resp: Client Stage: Prep/impl Due Date : March 2014 Status: On going

Monitoring and evaluation systems in MLSS needs to be Administrative systems will be strengthened under the project, improving the accuracy of datastrengthened. MLSS does not take full potential of the PATH's entry and records management. MIS and ELE will be revamped for enhanced monitoring.MIS to ensure optimal monitoring of beneficiaries and anticipateevolutions through projections. This is true also for theElectronic Labor Exchange (ELE) system and Steps to WorkMIS to monitor jobs and placements.

Resp: Bank/Client Stage: Prep/impl Due Date : Recurrent Status: On going

21

Overall Risk Rating: M (Moderate)

Comments: Comments:

Overall Risk Rating for the parent Project was determined to be Moderate during its preparation in2008. Risks factors were related to fiscal constraints under adverse macroeconomic conditions, andpolitical context for the public sector pension reform. Given that these risks remain and with theidentification of additional sustainability risk with the graduation strategy under the AF, the overallrisk for the AF will remain Moderate.

22

world bank document - documents &...

Documents