World Airshow Accident/Incident Overview 2012

“Looking Back to Look Forward”

“A realistic, clear-eyed look at risk management for display flying is a sobering exercise. Emotionally, we all LOVE absolute extreme edge of the envelope flying....right up until the revulsion of impact. Airshow accident statistics are all that remain!” (Maj Gen Scott Hammond, US ANG)

Des Barker

4 February 2013

Scope

Role & Function of Airshow Executive Safety Management

Display Physiological Environment

A Statistical Analysis - “The Inconvenient Truth”

Overview of Airshow Relate Accidents 2012!

Chicago Air Show 21 August 2005

WHAT IS THE ROLE AND FUNCTION OF AIRSHOW CONTROLLING BODIES?

Responsible For ?

• Visioning – setting safety objectives.

• Imposition and implementation of regulations through the specific country’s regulatory authorities.

• Instilling “SAFETY IS AN ATTITUDE” across the entire airshow population spectrum.

• Fostering of good relations with airshow organisations.

Accountable For ? Airshow Safety

EXECUTIVE SAFETY MANAGEMENT’S RESPONSIBILITY

To ensure that the implementation of policies,

procedures and equipment utilisation,

is adequately addressed and that personnel are trained within their areas of expertise.

• Develop and Manage Airshow Safety Strategic Objectives. • Develop and Manage an Airshow Safety Management System.• Compliance with Military and Chicago Convention Obligations.• Monitor regulatory compliance through ICAS/EAC/ASSA

appointed officers.• Practice safety oversight and regulation enforcement through

regulatory bodies.• Ensure Zero Tolerance of poor individual and/or Corporate

performance.

French Connection Mudry CAP 10 27 May 2000

The Hostile Low Level Environment

God did not design man to fly! 2 – Dimensional Creatures! Human Physiology Challenges

– Closing Rates 1500 kms/hr– Extremely High Rates of Descent 300 KTAS vertical– Normal Acceleration +9g/-6g– Roll Rates >360deg/sec

Human Physiology Weaknesses– Relatively Low reaction times– Inability to make quick, consistent and repeatable decisions– Inability to make good decisions repeatedly under pressure

AIM

To review the worldwide airshow accident and incident safety

statistics for 2012.

Definition of Airshow Accidents Longman Family Dictionary in the context of airshows –

“exhibition” = “a public showing” and therefore makes all public aviation

events, be they static or flying, an exhibition of some sort.

In context, this includes rehearsals for: Airshows Air races Flypasts Wingwalkers Barnstorming/Crazy Flying

Significant Indicators 2012

Good News: – For the first time in history?? No spectators injured or

killed.– No media ‘feeding frenzy’ – 2011 Reno/Duxford/Red

Arrows– 17 vs 105 killed/injured in 2011.

Bad News: – MACHINE failures continue for 2nd year - disproportionate

number of vintage aircraft mechanical failures!– 3 FIT Roll accidents.– Red Arrows pilot reassigned’.– Significant increase in airshow accidents vs display

practice.– Budget constraints for military display teams.

There are no new accidents – Just new pilots making old accidents (Hoover)!

Structural Failure Flight Into Terrain

Air RacesMechanical Failure

Lies!

Damned Lies!

Statistics!!!

Benjamin Disraeli -Charles Wentworth Dilke (1843-1911).

Statistical Analysis!

The Inconvenient Truth!“A Few Good Men".

with Tom Cruise, Demi Moore, Jack Nicholson, Kiefer Sutherland, Kevin Bacon. (1991)

Nicholson: "You want answers?!!"

Cruise: "I want the truth!!"

Nicholson:"You can't HANDLE the truth!!"

Sample Size = 276Airshow Accidents 10 Previous Years

Statistical Analysis 2012

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Airshow Accidents/Incidents 2003 to 2012

10 Year Average = 27.6

Statistical Analysis 2012Lviv, Ukraine; Su-27(85/156)

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KilledInjured

*Reno Air Race P-51 (11/66)

*Osprey (10)*Tiger Moth (39)

Fatalities (1908 to 2012)1029 vs 1429 = 2458

Sample Size = 2458

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Airshow Accident Casualties 2012 = 17

Statistical Analysis 2012

Pilots Killed; 0tan12a56601

2

Pilots Injured; 0tan1a56601

Pax Killed; 0tan29a5660

29

Pax Injured; 0tan29a566029

Statistical Analysis 2012

Airshow Accident/Incidents Aircraft Categories

Sample Size = 28

Vintage Aircraft = 51%

Statistical Analysis 2012

Sample Size = 26

Airshow Accident/incident Causal Factors

Mechanical29%

Loss of Control18%

FIT15%

Structural9%

Pilot Error9%

Ground Collision

6%

Midair Col-lision6%

Parachute3%

Birdstrike3%

Unknown3%

2012 2011

Mechanical38%

Loss of Control15%

FIT15%

Midair Colli-sion8%

Bird-strike8%

Un-known

8%

Ground Collision4%

Environmental4%

Sample Size = 34

Statistical Analysis 2012Judgement Error = 42% Non Human Error = 50%

Sample Size = 26

Airshow Accident/incident Analysis Human Judgement Error

Loss

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Midair C

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ision

Mecha

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Statistical Analysis 2012

Airshow Accident/incident Analysis Display vs Practice

Sample Size = 34

We do not “train like we fly and fly like we train!!!!

74%

21%

3%3%

AirshowsDisplay PracticeAir RaceFlypast Rehearsal

2012 2011

Airshows65%

Display Prac-tice23%

Air Race Re-

hearsal4%

Flypast4%

Flypast Rehearsal4%

Sample Size = 26

Statistical Analysis 2012

Comparative Airshow Accident/incident Analysis - Countries

Sample Size = 12

USA

United

Kingd

om

Canad

a

Franc

e

Russia

Chile

China

German

y

Malays

ia

Poland

South

Africa

Sri Lan

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Acci

dent

s/In

cide

nts

2012 2011

Sample Size = 12

USA UK

Canad

a

Turkey

Venez

uela

France

German

y

Indon

esia

South

Africa

Roman

ia

South

Korea

Taiwan

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Statistical Analysis 2012

Comparative Airshow Accident/incident Analysis – Military vs Civilian

24%

76%

MilitaryCivilian

20112012

Military31%

Civil-ian

69%

Ser Date Aircraft Type Category Accident Category

Fatalities Eject Event Location

1 03 Feb 2012

AIDC AT-3 Trainer Jet Midair Collision(?) 0 2 Yes Display Practice

Pingtun, Taiwan

2 13 Mar 2012

Canadair NF-5 TigerTurkish Stars

Fighter Jet FIT?(Unknown)

1 Pilot No Display Practice

Anatolia,Turkey

3 23 Mar 2012

Aerovodochody L-39C AlbatrosBlack Diamond

Vintage Trainer Jet

Wheelsup Landing???

0 N/A Airshow Florida,USA

4 30 Apr 2012 Zlin 226 Vintage Trainer Propeller

LOC (Unknown)

1 Pilot N/A Airshow Erfurt, Germany

5 16 May 2012

Canadair CT-114 TutorSnowbirds

TrainerJet Birdstrike 0 N/A Airshow Moosejaw,Canada

6 03 Jun 2012 Fairey Firefly Vintage Fighter Propeller

Mechanical (Undercarriage)

0 N/A Airshow California,USA

7 15 Jun 2012 Christen Eagle Sport Aero Rolls Aileron(Engine)

1 Pilot Inj N/A Airshow Idaho, USA

8 18 Jun 2012 Hot Air Balloon Balloon Environmental (Wind)

1 Pax Inj N/A Airshow Nebraska,USA

9 29 Jun 2012 Aerovodochody L-39 Albatros

Vintage Trainer Jet

LOC(Loo) 1 Pilot N/A Airshow Klerksdorp,South Africa

10 01 Jul 2012 De Havilland DH-53 Hummingbird

Vintage Light Utility

LOC(Engine Fail)??

1 Pilot N/A Airshow Old Warden,UK

11 10 Jul 2012 Rockwell OV-10 Bronco

Vintage Fighter Propeller

FIT(Split S)

1 Pilot Inj No Display Practice

Gloustershire UK

12 22 Jul 2012 Fokker DR.1 Replica

Vintage Fighter Propeller

LOC(Unknown)

1 Pilot N/A Airshow Charente, France

13 26 Jul 2012 American Champion Super Decathlon

Sport Aero Mechanical(Seat)

0 N/A Airshow Wisconsin, USA

Accident Data Base 2012

14 04 Aug 2012 Interstate S-1/L-6 Scout

Vintage Trainer Propeller

Mechanical (Engine)

0 N/A Airshow Alberta, Canada

15 12 Aug 2012 Jet Sailplane Glider Ground Collision (Vehicle)

0 N/A Airshow Wisconsin, USA

16 23 Aug 2012 IAR 99 Hawk 718 TrainerJet FIT(Unknown)

1 Pilot1 Pilot Inj

1 Yes Display Practice

Craiova, Romania

17 01 Sep 2012 Aerovodochody L-39C Albatross

Vintage Trainer Jet

FIT(Crossover Break)

1 Pilot N/A Airshow Iowa,USA

18 07 Sep 2012 Goodyear F2G Super Corsair

Vintage Fighter Propeller

FIT(Barrel Roll)

1 Pilot N/A Display Practice

North DakotaUSA

19 08 Sep 2012 De Havilland DH-89 Dragon Rapide

Vintage Transport Propeller

Mechanical (Engine Fire Start Up)

0 N/A Airshow Duxford, USA

20 09 Sep 2012 BAe Hawk T. Mk 1 Red Arrows

Trainer Jet Birdstrike 0 N/A Airshow Portrush, UK

21 11 Sep 2012 Hawker Sea Fury FB.11

Vintage Fighter Propeller

Mechanical (Undercarriage)

0 N/A Airshow Nevada, USA

22 16 Sep 2012 Yakolev 52 Vintage Trainer Propeller

FIT (Barrel Roll) 1 Pilot1 Pax

N/A Airshow Alabama, USA

23 29 Sep 2012 Sia Marchetti AS 202 Bravo

Light Utility Propeller

LOC (Unknown)

2 Pilot N/A Airshow Bandung, Indonesia

24 15 Nov 2012 KAI TA-50BBlack Eagles

Trainer Jet Mechanical (Human error ) Flight Control System

1 Pilot No Display Practice

Seoul, South Korea

25 22 Nov 2012 Rockwell OV-10 Bronco

Vintage Fighter Propeller

Midair Collision (?)

1 Pilot 1 No2 Yes

Flypast Practice

Caracas, Venezuela

26 27 Nov 2012 Hongdu K-8 Karakorum

Trainer Jet Mechanical (Unknown) 0 2 Yes Flypast Caracas, Venezuela

Ser Date Aircraft Type Category Accident Category

Fatalities Eject Event Location

Accident Data Base 2012

“But remember please, the law by which we live,

We are not built to comprehend a lie,

We can neither love, nor pity, nor forgive,

If you make a slip in handling us, you die”

Rudyard Kipling“Secret of the Machines”

The Law of Machines

Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage

Fairey Firefly California, USA03 June 2012

Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage

Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage

Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage

Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage

Mechanical Failure - Engine

De Havilland DH-53 Hummingbird, Duxford, UK1 July 2012

Interstate S-1/L-6 Scout,Edmonton, Canada4 August 2012

Mechanical Failure - Engine

Mechanical: Human Error

Korean Aircraft Industries T-T50 BOshkosh, USA28 July 2011

Mechanical Failure: Engine?

Hongdu K-8W KarakorumCaracas, Venezuela27 November 2012

IAR 99 Hawk 718Craiova, Romania23 August 2012

LOC?

Goodyear F2G Super Corsair, North Dakota, USA7 September 2012

Flight Into Terrain – Barrel Roll

Flight Into Terrain Barrel Roll

Yak 52Alabama, USA16 September 2012

Flight Into Terrain Snap Rolls

Zlin 226Germany, 30 April 2012

Flight Into Terrain – Split S

0V-10 Bronco,Cotswold, UK10 July 2012

Aerovodochody L-39 AlbatrosIowa, USA1 September 2012

Flight Into Terrain(G-LOC)?‘Crossover Break’

Loss of Control Snap Rolls

SIAI Marchetti AS 202 BravoBandung, Indonesia20 August 2011

• 26 Airshow Accidents & Incidents• 28 Aircraft• 13 Pilots Killed• 2 Pilots Injured• 1 Pax Killed• 1 Pax Injured• TOTAL = 17 vs 105 killed/injured!!!

2012

EXECUTIVE SAFETY MANAGEMENT SCORECARD

FAIL!!!

• What is it that we want from an airshow!• Do we need to regulate more strictly?• Where does one draw the line between regulation and an

individual’s choice?• Are Safety Officers exercising sufficiently strict oversight!• Is our attitude one of total dedication to safety above personal

ego and spectator’s adrenalin rush?• The pressures of weather versus spectator entertainment?• Minimum distance of spectator enclosure from showline?• Is ICAS, EAC and ASSA making determined and effective efforts

to change the culture of the airshow population group? • Are Airshow Councils providing the necessary safety strategies?• Is adequate Risk Management applied to air event organisation?

Questions that need Answers!

Thank You!

Frecce Tricolori USAF Ramstein 1988

“I have learned that carelessness and overconfidence are usually far more dangerous than deliberately accepted risks.”

(Wilbur Wright 1900 in a letter to his father)