world agricultural supply and demand estimates · satellite image comparison of syrian winter...

Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board, Chairing Agency

Economic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural Service

Farm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service

World Agricultural Supply and Demand EstimatesReport of May 10, 2019

WASDE: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

Secretary's WASDE Briefing Slides

Foreign Ag Service: World Agricultural Production

Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin

Links to the latest WASDE related publicationsOffice of the Chief Economist

World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)

US Drought Monitor ( in cooperation with NOAA and NDMC)

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdfhttp://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdfhttp://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/Secretary_Briefing.pdfhttp://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/Secretary_Briefing.pdfhttps://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdfhttps://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdfhttp://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Weekly/Wwcb/wwcb.pdfhttp://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Weekly/Wwcb/wwcb.pdfhttps://www.usda.gov/oce/http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/current/current_usdm.jpghttp://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/current/current_usdm.jpg

World Wheat Production

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020

Country or Region EstimateChange from

April 9 ForecastChange from2018/2019

---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 731.5 -1.3 777.5 45.9United States 51.3 -- 51.6 0.3

Foreign 680.3 -1.3 725.9 45.6Argentina 19.5 -- 20.0 0.5Canada 31.8 -- 34.5 2.7Australia 17.3 -- 22.5 5.2European Union 137.2 -0.4 153.8 16.6Turkey 19.0 -- 21.0 2.0Iran, Iraq, and Syria 19.5 -- 26.4 6.9Russia 71.7 -- 77.0 5.3Ukraine 25.1 -- 29.0 3.9Kazakhstan 13.9 -- 13.8 -0.1China 131.4 -- 132.0 0.6India 99.7 -- 100.0 0.3Northwest Africa 12.3 ** 9.9 -2.5

-- No change. **Rounds to zero.

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

May 10, 2019

* Map data courtesy of SAGE/Univ of Wisconsin, and based on FAO/USDA May 10, 2019

Morocco

Algeria Tunisia

In contrast to last year’s recovery from fall drought, a favorable fall gave way to winter drought over Morocco.

Winter Wheat Winter, 2017-18

December 1 – February 28, 2019

Fall SpringWinter

Planting

May 10, 2019

Despite a precipitation trace which is near normal for the growing season, the timing of this year’s drought in Morocco couldn’t have

been much worse for wheat.

Head/Flower Fill

MOROCCO DROUGHT EVOLUTION: GIMMS MODIS NDVI ANOMALY March 2019

February 2019

January 2019

December 2018

March 2018March 2019

Source: NASA/GSFC/GIMMS,GIMMIS MODIS NDVI Global Agricultural Monitoring

May 10, 2019

The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the eastern half of the region, and

below-average yields in the west.

May 10, 2019

Winter Wheat

May 10, 2019

Turkey

Syria

Iran

Iraq

Turkey

Syria

IranIraq

Wet conditions have persisted recently. Most growing areas could actually use a break!

May 10, 2019Winter Wheat

May, 2019


The Middle East is one of the few places in the northern hemisphere that has reported consistently below-normal

temperatures over the past 3 to 6 months (May shown here), due in large part to cloudy, rainy weather.

Satellite Image Comparison of Syrian Winter Grains in April of 2019, 2018 (drought year) and 2017 (average year)13 APR 2019 25 APR 2018 10 APR 2017

Source: Digital Globe WorldView 3, NextView License

May 10, 2019

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

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1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Wheat Yield Series for Syria, Iran and Iraq

3.00

2.51

2.00

Yiel

d, m

etric

tons

per

hec

tare

Source: USDA PS&D database

New Value Last Year Change % Change 5-Yr Avg Record High YrIran Area 6,700 6,700 0 0 6,572 7,222 2007

Production 16,800 14,500 2,300 16 14,100 15,887 2007Yield 2.51 2.16 0.34 16 2.10 2.21 2004

Iraq Area 2,400 1,700 700 41 2,232 2,639 1991Production 4,800 3,000 1,800 60 3,827 4,410 2015Yield 2.00 1.76 0.24 13 1.72 1.82 2017

Syria Area 1,600 1,100 500 45 1,210 1,904 2005Production 4,800 2,000 2,800 140 2,520 4,913 2003Yield 3.00 1.82 1.18 65 2.07 2.84 2002

May 10, 2019

May 10, 2019

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0

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2019

Yiel

d (T

/Ha)

Area

(MHa

) and

Pro

duct

ion

(MM

T)Russia Winter Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production

Harvested area Production Yield

Sources: PSD Online, FAS Forecast (2019)

Production is forecast at 57.8 mmt, up 10 percent from last year and up 17 percent from the 5-year average.

May 10, 2019

May 10, 2019

0

2000

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26

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2

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9

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16

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23

1000

hec

tare

sRussia: Spring Wheat Sowing Progress

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: Ministry of Agriculture

No concerns over planting delays.

May 10, 2019

3.85

1.67

0.3

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

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4.3

4.8

2007

2008

2009

2010

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2018

2019

Yiel

d (T

/ha)

Russia Winter vs Spring Wheat Yields

Winter wheat Spring wheat

Sources: Rosstat (2007-2018), FAS Forecast (2019)May 10, 2019

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/Ha)

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) and

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duct

ion

(MM

T)Russia Total Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production

Harvested area Production Yield

Sources: PSD Online, FAS Forecast (2019)

Post: Total wheat revised to 79.0 mmt from 80.0

Production is forecast at 77.0 mmt.

May 10, 2019

World Wheat Supply and Use

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020

Item EstimateChange from


---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 281.3 -0.6 275.0 -6.3Production 731.5 -1.3 777.5 45.9Total Supply 1,012.9 -1.9 1,052.5 39.6

Feed use 139.7 0.2 150.3 10.6Total use 737.9 -1.3 759.5 21.6

Trade 177.9 -0.5 184.6 6.7Ending Stocks 275.0 -0.6 293.0 18.0

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



Planted area (million acres) 47.8 -- 45.8 -2.0Harvested area (million acres) 39.6 -- 39.0 -0.6Yield (bushels per acre) 47.6 -- 48.6 1.0

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1,099 -- 1,127 28Production 1,884 -- 1,897 12Imports 140 -5 140 --Total supply 3,123 -5 3,164 40

Food use 960 -5 965 5Seed 62 -- 68 7Feed and residual 50 -20 90 40Domestic use 1,072 -25 1,123 52

Exports 925 -20 900 -25Total use 1,997 -45 2,023 27

Ending stocks 1,127 40 1,141 14----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 56.4 3.2 56.4 -0.1

Average market price 5.20 -- 4.70 -0.50-- No change.

------------ Dollars per bushel ------------

World Rice Production

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 499.9 -1.5 498.4 -1.5United States 7.1 -- 6.9 -0.2

Foreign 492.8 -1.5 491.5 -1.3Argentina 0.8 -- 0.8 --Brazil 7.5 -- 7.3 -0.1Egypt 2.8 -- 3.0 0.2Australia 0.08 -- 0.08 --Bangladesh 35.0 -- 35.3 0.3Burma 13.1 ** 13.3 0.2Cambodia 5.6 0.1 5.7 0.1China 148.5 -- 146.0 -2.5India 116.0 -- 115.0 -1.0Indonesia 37.1 -- 37.4 0.3Japan 7.7 -- 7.7 **Sri Lanka 3.0 -- 2.9 -0.1Pakistan 7.4 -- 7.5 0.1Philippines 12.0 -- 12.2 0.2Thailand 20.7 ** 21.1 0.4Vietnam 27.7 -1.4 28.0 0.3


World Rice Supply and Use

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 162.1 -0.3 169.9 7.9Production 499.9 -1.5 498.4 -1.5Total Supply 662.0 -1.8 668.3 6.4Total use 492.0 -0.4 496.1 4.1

Trade 46.7 -0.6 47.6 0.9Ending Stocks 169.9 -1.4 172.2 2.3

U.S. Rice Supply and Demand

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



Planted area (million acres) 2.95 -- 2.87 -0.08Harvested area (million acres) 2.92 -- 2.84 -0.08Yield (pounds per acre) 7,692 -- 7,697 5

------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 29.4 -- 53.6 24.2Production 224.2 -- 218.2 -6.0Imports 28.0 -1.0 28.0 --Total supply 281.6 -1.0 299.8 18.2Domestic use 135.0 -- 140.0 5.0

Exports 93.0 -1.0 101.0 8.0Total use 228.0 -1.0 241.0 13.0

Ending stocks 53.6 -- 58.8 5.2----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 23.5 0.1 24.4 0.9

Average market price 12.00 -0.10 11.20 -0.80-- No change.

------------ Dollars per cwt ------------

World Corn Production

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 1,119.0 11.6 1,133.8 14.8United States 366.3 -- 381.8 15.5

Foreign 752.7 11.6 752.0 -0.7Argentina 49.0 2.0 49.0 --Brazil 100.0 4.0 101.0 1.0Mexico 26.7 -- 27.0 0.3Canada 13.9 -- 15.4 1.5European Union 63.4 0.4 64.2 0.8Serbia 7.0 -- 6.5 -0.6FSU-12 52.5 ** 50.8 -1.7Ukraine 35.8 -- 33.0 -2.8Russia 11.4 -- 13.0 1.6

South Africa 11.0 -- 14.0 3.0China 257.3 -- 254.0 -3.3India 27.8 -- 29.0 1.2


JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

2nd Corn crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil

Plant

Harvest

Percent of Normal Rainfall (%)March 2019

(%)

Acre

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

ParaAmazonas

Rondonia

Roraima Amapa

Acre

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

ParaAmazonas

Rondonia

Roraima Amapa

Acre

(%)

Percent of Normal Rainfall (%)April 2019

May 10, 2019

Brazil: Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MT

Early May

Mato Grosso

Parana

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10, 2019

Chart4

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Parana

MT


3.4

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1

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1

3

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3

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3

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2

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2

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6.2

4.4

6.2

4.3

6.3

4.3

6.4

4.3

6.4

4.3

6.5

4.3

6.5

4.4

6.6

4.4

6.6

4.4

6.6

4.5

6.7

4.5

6.8

4.6

6.8

4.6

6.8

4.7

6.8

4.8

6.9

4.8

6.9

4.9

6.9

5

6.9

5.1

7

5.2

7

5.2

7

5.3

7

5.4

7

5.5

7

5.6

7

5.6

7

5.7

7.1

5.7

7.1

5.8

7

5.9

7

6

7.1

6

7.1

6

7

6.1

7.1

6.1

7.1

6.1

7.1

6.2

7.1

6.2

7.1

6.2

7.1

6.2

7.1

6.2

7.1

6.2

7.1

6.1

7.1

6.1

7.1

6.1

7.2

6.1

7.2

6

7.2

6

7.2

6

7.2

6

7.2

5.9

7.3

5.9

7.2

5.8

7.3

5.8

7.3

5.8

7.3

5.7

7.4

5.7

7.4

5.6

7.4

5.6

7.5

5.6

7.5

5.5

7.5

5.5

7.5

5.5

7.6

5.5

7.6

5.4

7.6

5.4

7.6

5.4

7.7

5.4

7.7

5.4

7.7

5.4

7.8

5.4

7.8

5.5

7.8

5.5

7.9

5.5

7.9

5.5

7.9

5.5

8

5.5

8

5.6

8

5.6

8

5.7

8.1

5.7

8.1

5.7

8.2

5.8

8.2

5.8

8.2

5.9

8.2

5.9

8.2

5.9

8.2

6

8.3

6

8.3

6

8.3

6

8.3

6.1

8.3

6

8.3

6

8.3

6

8.3

6

8.3

6

8.3

6

8.3

6

8.3

5.9

8.2

5.9

8.2

5.8

8.2

5.8

8.2

5.7

8.2

5.6

8.2

5.5

8.1

5.5

8.1

5.4

8

5.3

8

5.2

7.9

5.1

7.9

5

7.8

4.9

7.8

4.9

7.7

4.8

7.7

4.7

7.6

4.6

7.6

4.5

7.5

4.5

7.5

4.4

7.4

4.3

7.3

4.2

7.3

4.2

7.2

4.1

7.1

4.1

7

4

7

4

6.8

4

6.8

3.9

6.7

3.9

6.6

3.9

6.5

3.9

6.4

3.8

6.3

3.9

6.2

3.9

6.1

3.9

6.1

3.9

6

3.9

5.8

3.9

5.8

4

5.7

4

5.6

4

5.5

4

5.4

4.1

5.3

4.1

5.2

4.2

5.1

4.2

5

4.2

4.9

4.3

4.8

4.3

4.7

4.4

4.6

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.3

4.5

4.2

4.6

4.1

4.6

4

4.6

3.9

4.6

3.8

4.6

3.7

4.7

3.6

4.7

3.5

4.7

3.5

4.7

3.4

4.7

3.3

4.7

3.2

4.7

3.1

4.7

3.1

4.7

3

4.7

2.9

4.7

2.8

4.6

2.7

4.6

2.7

4.6

2.6

4.6

2.5

4.6

2.4

4.5

2.4

4.5

2.3

4.5

2.2

4.5

2.2

4.5

2.1

4.4

2

4.4

2

4.4

1.9

4.4

1.9

4.4

1.8

4.4

1.7

4.4

1.7

4.3

1.6

4.4

1.5

4.4

1.5

4.4

1.4

4.4

1.4

4.4

1.4

4.4

1.3

4.4

1.2

4.4

1.2

4.4

1.1

4.4

1.1

4.4

1.1

4.4

1.1

4.4

1

4.4

1

4.5

0.9

4.4

0.9

4.4

0.9

4.5

0.8

4.5

0.8

4.5

0.8

4.5

0.7

4.5

0.7

4.4

0.7

4.4

0.7

4.4

0.7

4.4

0.7

4.4

0.7

4.4

0.6

4.3

0.6

4.3

0.6

4.2

0.6

4.2

0.6

4.1

0.6

4.1

0.6

4

0.6

4

0.5

3.9

0.5

3.8

0.6

3.8

0.6

3.7

0.6

3.6

0.5

3.6

0.5

3.5

0.6

Rainfall normals

CumulativeDaily

ParanaMTRGDSParanaMT

Jul-012.76407.0883.40.5

Jul-025.128012.2323.30.5

Jul-038.60.95218.5323.30.5

Jul-0411.1962.11621.5123.20.5

Jul-0512.9082.1425.2043.10.6

Jul-0615.3082.4631.97230.5

Jul-0719.7362.4638.67430.5

Jul-0823.8522.46444.482.90.5

Jul-0929.2523.41250.542.80.5

Jul-1032.9683.74855.0882.80.5

Jul-1135.23.8460.2722.70.5

Jul-1237.3163.9261.7242.70.5

Jul-1338.5763.93262.3282.60.5

Jul-1438.6843.9663.5662.50.5

Jul-1539.6763.97666.2482.50.5

Jul-1644.8643.97672.0162.40.5

Jul-1748.473.97676.0142.40.5

Jul-1852.654.12880.9462.40.5

Jul-1956.2224.22886.8742.30.5

Jul-2058.7544.5692.0742.30.5

Jul-2162.0984.61695.1122.30.5

Jul-2263.4824.798.5082.30.5

Jul-2366.3226.736101.022.30.5

Jul-2466.8266.868102.1162.20.5

Jul-2568.1947.008104.6682.20.5

Jul-2669.9747.432109.112.20.5

Jul-2772.8347.488113.9622.20.5

Jul-2875.0747.568118.2942.20.5

Jul-2976.5627.608124.1782.20.5

Jul-3078.2027.628129.2382.20.5

Jul-3180.6548.448135.0822.30.5

Aug-0184.1389.236140.5822.30.5

Aug-0286.9389.384144.8062.30.5

Aug-0388.6869.452150.0982.30.5

Aug-0490.3589.96155.7742.30.6

Aug-0592.79411.416158.9342.30.6

Aug-0695.7512.692162.4782.40.5

Aug-0798.42212.7167.0142.40.5

Aug-08100.08612.704170.0662.40.5

Aug-09102.97812.704177.2742.40.6

Aug-10105.06613.04180.9922.50.6

Aug-11106.53813.12183.662.50.6

Aug-12108.09813.508185.0762.50.6

Aug-13108.98613.644186.3642.50.6

Aug-14111.48213.908189.842.60.7

Aug-15113.7715.204195.1762.60.7

Aug-16117.67415.92201.2362.70.8

Aug-17119.8515.96204.162.70.8

Aug-18123.49816.052208.8362.70.8

Aug-19128.4116.14211.5482.80.8

Aug-20131.8316.564216.982.80.9

Aug-21135.82617.052221.7482.80.9

Aug-22138.23417.196223.1682.90.9

Aug-23139.43818.948225.2162.91

Aug-24140.6119.588228.6082.91

Aug-25143.08221.084231.28831.1

Aug-26144.45422.012235.17231.1

Aug-27149.27822.012238.86431.2

Aug-28151.7922.856240.763.11.2

Aug-29153.77424.556243.7123.11.3

Aug-30154.74625.356246.2283.21.3

Aug-31158.76626.432251.1123.21.3

Sep-01161.39828.168255.1963.31.4

Sep-02165.3130.132257.9963.31.4

Sep-03167.07830.308259.7363.41.5

Sep-04170.0330.388263.5923.41.6

Sep-05173.54630.768266.663.51.6

Sep-06175.39831.48268.6843.61.7

Sep-07181.81432.682723.71.7

Sep-08187.61436.846277.4943.71.8

Sep-09191.40638.834281.1823.81.8

Sep-10192.50240.09284.1743.91.9

Sep-11193.48641.462292.2543.92

Sep-12199.14642.282302.17442

Sep-13205.05844.022308.4244.12.1

Sep-14211.13445.642316.664.22.2

Sep-15218.04246.95325.5284.32.2

Sep-16221.95449.078330.0324.42.2

Sep-17224.01849.926332.2484.52.3

Sep-18228.08650.494340.2164.62.4

Sep-19232.19453.954348.784.72.4

Sep-20238.9154.818355.5184.82.5

Sep-21240.91456.926361.3764.82.6

Sep-22244.25458.866365.8484.92.6

Sep-23248.92660.538375.6452.7

Sep-24256.39863.07389.7765.12.8

Sep-25264.2565.454395.3085.22.8

Sep-26268.94669.902400.045.32.9

Sep-27272.3770.662403.85.32.9

Sep-28277.44272.082407.8845.43

Sep-29284.52276.594413.1285.53.1

Sep-30290.04281.582418.6365.63.1

Oct-01299.10684.374427.3645.63.2

Oct-02305.18687.73431.9525.73.3

Oct-03308.18689.546436.9565.73.3

Oct-04311.9194.862442.2325.83.4

Oct-05315.98296.65452.0525.83.5

Oct-06322.018100.354459.35.83.6

Oct-07324.45103.338461.6745.93.6

Oct-08330.414106.33469.595.93.7

Oct-09336.41108.39478.8965.93.8

Oct-10342.482112.878486.45.93.8

Oct-11349.454115.038491.785.93.9

Oct-12355.71118.93498.3765.94

Oct-13362.234123.062507.925.94.1

Oct-14367.638126.802513.4845.94.1

Oct-15369.866129.274519.5245.84.2

Oct-16375.386133.39528.2365.84.3

Oct-17383.966137.61539.5125.84.4

Oct-18388.114141.006543.985.74.5

Oct-19394.91146.666547.5485.74.5

Oct-20401.666150.358554.6245.64.6

Oct-21406.878153.806560.3165.64.7

Oct-22411.594157.198563.2565.54.8

Oct-23414.694163.434566.6245.54.8

Oct-24418.11168.974571.8085.44.9

Oct-25424.658173.138577.8045.35

Oct-26433.038178.442585.3085.25.1

Oct-27442.146187.07589.15.25.2

Oct-28444.998192.174592.1845.15.2

Oct-29447.778195.098595.6255.3

Oct-30449.114202.238599.9224.95.4

Oct-31453.102207.962606.1024.95.5

Nov-01460.738212.35611.4144.85.5

Nov-02465.35217.874616.1944.75.6

Nov-03471.222224.532620.4084.75.7

Nov-04477.21229.184626.3284.65.8

Nov-05481.826236.736633.764.65.9

Nov-06490.546240.048643.0564.55.9

Nov-07493.758244.132645.7244.56

Nov-08497.23248.816650.1844.46.1

Nov-09500.526255.364654.4124.46.1

Nov-10505.182265.46659.764.46.2

Nov-11509.178271.336664.3484.46.2

Nov-12513.334276.676668.964.36.3

Nov-13519.854282.156675.1244.36.4

Nov-14525.21288.43678.2844.36.4

Nov-15530.69292.758680.6524.36.5

Nov-16533.158304.166684.3644.36.5

Nov-17537.386309.69688.644.46.6

Nov-18540.63316.15693.6124.46.6

Nov-19544.51320.838697.7564.46.6

Nov-20548.162331.762699.2884.56.7

Nov-21552.446337.868702.0324.56.8

Nov-22556.582343.624703.2164.66.8

Nov-23558.166350.38706.0564.66.8

Nov-24561.802353.587104.76.8

Nov-25568.802360.124716.7524.86.9

Nov-26574.546364.332720.6724.86.9

Nov-27578.93369.52724.8244.96.9

Nov-28582.814377.852729.17256.9

Nov-29585.61388.264730.4165.17

Nov-30588.422396.364732.4125.27

Dec-01591.438407.728735.7045.27

Dec-02594.274414.648738.1925.37

Dec-03597.002422.32740.3125.47

Dec-04601.042427.388743.1565.57

Dec-05605.394432.46750.4325.67

Dec-06610.078438.292758.395.67

Dec-07617.094447.072763.4265.77.1

Dec-08621.458453.66766.2485.77.1

Dec-09623.962460.588768.45.87

Dec-10630.95469.21771.5945.97

Dec-11635.566481.482775.87867.1

Dec-12642.502488.85782.7567.1

Dec-13649.742499.602787.8567

Dec-14658.15509.698791.8626.17.1

Dec-15662.126515.178797.5866.17.1

Dec-16667.966522.814802.156.17.1

Dec-17673.974529.578810.0146.27.1

Dec-18676.898537.354813.916.27.1

Dec-19680.222544.574815.1746.27.1

Dec-20684.598550.39822.256.27.1

Dec-21689.722556.622828.036.27.1

Dec-22697.602560.194832.8866.27.1

Dec-23701.29567.118838.4266.17.1

Dec-24706.69573.266846.1366.17.1

Dec-25708.366580.538486.17.2

Dec-26710.446588.766852.8766.17.2

Dec-27713.818595.826855.60467.2

Dec-28718.79603.75860.75667.2

Dec-29727.414610.454864.65267.2

Dec-30733.598617.218871.62867.2

Dec-31739.248626.332875.9345.97.3

Jan-01743.224635.558879.955.97.2

Jan-02745.184645.69882.5425.87.3

Jan-03749.496653.898885.6785.87.3

Jan-04753.786664.308888.835.87.3

Jan-05758.918673.588893.2225.77.4

Jan-06762.998685.356896.9825.77.4

Jan-07766.544691.6901.3565.67.4

Jan-08768.952700.506907.9565.67.5

Jan-09774.38710.522913.6845.67.5

Jan-10781.904718.902919.0525.57.5

Jan-11788.208726.078925.4925.57.5

Jan-12794.56735.638929.7445.57.6

Jan-13800.452744.47932.485.57.6

Jan-14804.716753.262939.0445.47.6

Jan-15810.692764.854947.3685.47.6

Jan-16815.796773.346955.775.47.7

Jan-17820.62781.266962.955.47.7

Jan-18824.56788.226966.7785.47.7

Jan-19829.312793.81969.0445.47.8

Jan-20836.52800.718976.8525.47.8

Jan-21840.784809.782980.4625.57.8

Jan-22846.86815.818984.1585.57.9

Jan-23852.196824.174988.4665.57.9

Jan-24857.26831.706991.995.57.9

Jan-25866.372838.471001.425.58

Jan-26872.064846.9341007.615.58

Jan-27878.372854.331015.415.68

Jan-28883.588859.971018.465.68

Jan-29889.244867.3981026.535.78.1

Jan-30896.468876.5341035.665.78.1

Jan-31904.84883.6461044.35.78.2

Feb-01915.208891.5141052.945.88.2

Feb-02921.476900.371061.035.88.2

Feb-03927.964909.6461064.425.98.2

Feb-04932.86918.0261070.325.98.2

Feb-05937.408928.9461077.635.98.2

Feb-06942.01937.4121082.5468.3

Feb-07947.086952.8841085.5268.3

Feb-08952.246962.281090.9868.3

Feb-09955.886968.9041095.5868.3

Feb-10961.33975.41104.696.18.3

Feb-11966.97981.9961109.9168.3

Feb-12969.426992.5921112.4268.3

Feb-13974.17999.6521115.6768.3

Feb-14980.5061007.681120.6268.3

Feb-15985.9541015.551127.2568.3

Feb-16992.671024.22113468.3

Feb-17997.2581033.531139.9468.3

Feb-181003.411040.261143.025.98.2

Feb-191008.261048.531144.85.98.2

Feb-201013.51057.571151.955.88.2

Feb-211019.971067.451156.195.88.2

Feb-221026.261074.181159.785.78.2

Feb-231030.881081.821164.615.68.2

Feb-241038.271087.921177.265.58.1

Feb-251044.731095.11185.735.58.1

Feb-261048.471100.971191.345.48

Feb-271052.141108.541196.555.38

Feb-281057.541115.841199.945.27.9

Mar-011061.311123.061205.15.17.9

Mar-021064.551129.71208.257.8

Mar-031069.661138.291212.084.97.8

Mar-041072.731147.051215.714.97.7

Mar-051075.511153.851220.144.87.7

Mar-061078.351164.511226.054.77.6

Mar-071082.211171.311231.624.67.6

Mar-081084.491176.251235.254.57.5

Mar-091087.061182.511238.444.57.5

Mar-101091.091188.281244.564.47.4

Mar-111093.851196.451249.564.37.3

Mar-121097.211204.871253.894.27.3

Mar-131101.191211.341259.134.27.2

Mar-141104.321220.351264.734.17.1

Mar-151106.81228.421267.724.17

Mar-161109.091235.431272.5447

Mar-171115.381244.581276.3646.8

Mar-181120.721255.571286.0846.8

Mar-191123.251269.691288.853.96.7

Mar-201129.071276.671291.293.96.6

Mar-211131.711284.441294.33.96.5

Mar-221136.331290.371296.413.96.4

Mar-231139.461296.891301.873.86.3

Mar-241144.941303.711306.873.96.2

Mar-251147.981310.61311.63.96.1

Mar-261151.091315.011317.183.96.1

Mar-2711551321.291321.393.96

Mar-281157.911327.281326.773.95.8

Mar-291161.531333.821332.073.95.8

Mar-301166.081340.381337.8645.7

Mar-311168.791343.881342.6345.6

Apr-011174.481348.11351.7345.5

Apr-021177.311355.481358.6745.4

Apr-031179.431361.581364.024.15.3

Apr-041184.511365.851373.524.15.2

Apr-051187.511368.831379.834.25.1

Apr-061189.311373.521386.694.25

Apr-071196.681376.811393.074.24.9

Apr-081200.951379.251399.194.34.8

Apr-091204.171382.071402.214.34.7

Apr-101209.271384.851407.494.44.6

Apr-111211.331389.831411.354.44.5

Apr-121213.831396.081418.194.44.4

Apr-131220.011403.61425.184.54.3

Apr-141224.841407.461430.044.54.2

Apr-151231.021413.21438.884.64.1

Apr-161235.931416.931445.984.64

Apr-171242.111423.261451.14.63.9

Apr-181249.851426.631458.164.63.8

Apr-191256.991431.231463.554.63.7

Apr-201263.631433.591468.134.73.6

Apr-211266.251436.311471.84.73.5

Apr-221268.481439.991474.224.73.5

Apr-231271.551442.211480.14.73.4

Apr-241277.861443.741488.234.73.3

Apr-251282.261446.711497.134.73.2

Apr-261287.021449.181502.574.73.1

Apr-271289.341451.291507.154.73.1

Apr-281292.21452.791512.354.73

Apr-291297.371454.161519.684.72.9

Apr-301300.731456.451524.814.72.8

May-011303.271457.491527.594.62.7

May-021306.231459.671531.774.62.7

May-031310.461460.911535.324.62.6

May-041315.721462.91540.974.62.5

May-051318.471463.911545.884.62.4

May-061325.381466.431548.084.52.4

May-071328.661468.521554.134.52.3

May-081333.41469.121559.94.52.2

May-091336.731470.451564.144.52.2

May-101340.071470.911567.74.52.1

May-111342.981471.441571.854.42

May-121346.41471.751576.834.42

May-131353.071472.521583.134.41.9

May-141359.851475.491588.034.41.9

May-151363.21476.851591.14.41.8

May-161368.851479.771598.074.41.7

May-171374.281480.681603.514.41.7

May-181380.291481.791609.724.31.6

May-191385.291482.141615.834.41.5

May-201392.121482.271623.194.41.5

May-211401.121484.651630.374.41.4

May-221407.691485.691636.184.41.4

May-231413.411486.871640.894.41.4

May-241417.041488.041643.694.41.3

May-251421.951488.641647.964.41.2

May-261424.651489.111652.784.41.2

May-271428.721490.251661.294.41.1

May-281432.591490.561671.14.41.1

May-291436.761491.131678.914.41.1

May-3014421491.611686.264.41.1

May-311445.451493.931692.584.41

Jun-011447.851494.931694.094.41

Jun-021449.691495.691697.174.50.9

Jun-031452.111495.751704.524.40.9

Jun-041455.321496.471709.864.40.9

Jun-051464.581496.71719.594.50.8

Jun-061470.331497.911727.424.50.8

Jun-071475.351498.961731.694.50.8

Jun-081478.381499.111736.724.50.7

Jun-091481.111499.151742.034.50.7

Jun-101483.021499.751749.034.40.7

Jun-111485.481499.751752.794.40.7

Jun-121487.951499.751757.634.40.7

Jun-131491.691499.751762.794.40.7

Jun-141498.861499.811768.594.40.7

Jun-151501.681501.421770.34.40.6

Jun-161504.621501.861776.234.30.6

Jun-171507.311502.11783.434.30.6

Jun-181514.471502.431788.874.20.6

Jun-191521.091502.471796.684.20.6

Jun-201527.581502.871799.814.10.6

Jun-211531.391503.151803.244.10.6

Jun-221533.211504.211806.5840.6

Jun-231535.361504.281810.9440.5

Jun-241541.221505.431815.963.90.5

Jun-251544.871506.21818.753.80.6

Jun-261547.641506.961822.413.80.6

Jun-271551.71507.021825.883.70.6

Jun-281554.531507.11828.743.60.5

Jun-291557.861508.171831.593.60.5

Jun-301561.21509.011838.533.50.6

Rainfall normals

Parana

MT


Sheet2

Sheet3

Average

2015/16


Since April 1

2018/19

May 10, 2019

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10, 2019

Vegetative Health IndexWeek 17 (April 28)

Lush/Saturated

Favorable

Fair

Poor

Bare/Stressed

Source: NOAA


2019 2018

May 10, 2019

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

2018/19 RECORD PRODUCTION 100 mmt, up 4 mmt (4%) from last monthRECORD AREA 17.5 mha, up 2%RECORD YIELD 5.71 mt/ha, up 2% from last month

Source: USDA/FAS/PSD

4.34 4.16

4.805.16 5.06

5.40

4.19

5.604.94

5.71 5.58

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2009

/201

0

2010

/201

1

2011

/201

2

2012

/201

3

2013

/201

4

2014

/201

5

2015

/201

6

2016

/201

7

2017

/201

8

2018

/201

9E

2019

/202

0F

Yiel

d (m

t/ha

)

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

ons

Brazil Corn

Area (th ha) Production (th ton) Yield (mt/ha)Source: USDA FAS PSD

May 10, 2019

World Corn Supply and Use

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 339.3 -1.1 325.9 -13.3Production 1,119.0 11.6 1,133.8 14.8Total Supply 1,458.3 10.5 1,459.7 1.4

Feed use 699.7 -3.8 705.1 5.4Total use 1,132.3 -1.4 1,145.0 12.7

Trade 170.3 2.2 171.6 1.3Ending Stocks 325.9 11.9 314.7 -11.2

U.S. Corn Supply and Demand

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



Planted area (million acres) 89.1 -- 92.8 3.7Harvested area (million acres) 81.7 -- 85.4 3.7Yield (bushels per acre) 176.4 -- 176.0 -0.4

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 2,140 -- 2,095 -45Production 14,420 -- 15,030 610Imports 35 -5 35 --Total supply 16,595 -5 17,160 565

Feed and residual 5,300 -- 5,450 150Food, seed, and industrial 6,900 -65 6,950 50Ethanol 5,450 -50 5,500 50Domestic use 12,200 -65 12,400 200

Exports 2,300 -- 2,275 -25Total use 14,500 -65 14,675 175

Ending stocks 2,095 60 2,485 390----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 14.5 0.5 16.9 2.5



World Soybean Production

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 362.1 1.5 355.7 -6.4United States 123.7 -- 112.9 -10.7

Foreign 238.4 1.5 242.7 4.3Argentina 56.0 1.0 53.0 -3.0Brazil 117.0 -- 123.0 6.0Paraguay 9.0 -- 10.2 1.2Canada 7.3 -- 6.3 -1.0India 11.5 0.5 10.9 -0.6China 15.9 -- 17.0 1.1

-- No change.

36May 10, 2019

Autumn drought impacted rapeseed establishment in France, Germany, and northwestern Poland as

well as parts of the Balkans,

Favorable Dry

September 1 – November 30, 2018

Dry

May 10, 2019

Wet

FavorableFavorable

December 1 – February 28, 2019

Wet

Many of these same autumn drought areas bounced back with favorable winter precipitation,

though Hungary remained dry.

May 10, 2019

We are entering the key period for rapeseed. The potential for yield losses is greatest in

northeastern Europe due to acute short-term dryness, but the VHI is not reflecting any

widespread impacts yet.

France, England, and the Balkans are currently in good shape.

May 10, 2019

Rapeseed Area Harvested (1,000 HA) Change: (2018/2019 to 2019/2020 (May))EU Rapeseed Area Harvested Change: -1.26 mha

Data Source: USDA PSD

May 10, 2019

Rapeseed Yield (%) Percent Change: (2018/2019 to 2019/2020 (May))EU Rapeseed Yield Percent Change: 19.6%


May 10, 2019

Rapeseed Production (1,000 MT) Change: (2018/2019 to 2019/2020 (May))EU Rapeseed Production Change: -0.36 mmt


May 10, 2019

World Soybean Supply and Use

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 99.1 0.1 113.2 14.1Production 362.1 1.5 355.7 -6.4Total Supply 461.2 1.6 468.8 7.7

Crush 301.6 -2.2 308.2 6.6Total use 347.2 -1.9 355.4 8.2

Trade 150.3 -4.0 151.2 0.8Ending Stocks 113.2 5.8 113.1 -0.1

AddendumBeginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 56.5 -0.4 56.9 0.4

Imports*China 86.0 -2.0 87.0 1.0

*From all sources.

China Soybean Supply and Use

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



Harvested area (million hectares) 8.40 -- 9.10 0.70Yield (tons per hectare) 1.89 -- 1.87 -0.02

------------ Million tons ------------Beginning stocks 23.5 -- 22.2 -1.3Production 15.9 -- 17.0 1.1Imports 86.0 -2.0 87.0 1.0Total supply 125.4 -2.0 126.2 0.8

Crush 86.0 -2.0 86.0 --Food and feed 17.1 -- 17.7 0.6Domestic use 103.1 -2.0 103.7 0.6

Exports 0.1 -- 0.1 --Total use 103.2 -2.0 103.8 0.6

Ending stocks 22.2 -- 22.4 0.2----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 21.5 0.4 21.5 0.0-- No change.

U.S. Soybeans Supply and Demand

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



Planted area (million acres) 89.2 -- 84.6 -4.6Harvested area (million acres) 88.1 -- 83.8 -4.3Yield (bushels per acre) 51.6 -- 49.5 -2.1

------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 438 -- 995 557Production 4,544 -- 4,150 -394Imports 17 -- 20 3Total supply 4,999 -- 5,165 166

Crush 2,100 -- 2,115 15Seed and Residual 129 -- 130 1Domestic use 2,229 -- 2,245 16

Exports 1,775 -100 1,950 175Total use 4,004 -100 4,195 191

Ending stocks 995 100 970 -25----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks to use ratio 24.9 3.0 23.1 -1.7



World Cotton Production

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



---------------- Million bales ----------------World 118.4 -0.5 125.5 7.0United States 18.4 ** 22.0 3.6

Foreign 100.1 -0.5 103.5 3.4Argentina 1.2 -- 1.2 **Brazil 12.8 1.0 12.0 -0.8Turkey 3.7 -- 4.1 0.4Australia 2.5 -- 2.2 -0.3China 27.8 -- 27.8 --India 25.5 -1.5 28.5 3.0Pakistan 7.7 -- 8.0 0.3Uzbekistan 3.3 -- 3.1 -0.2Turkmenistan 0.9 -- 1.2 0.2African Franc Zone 5.4 ** 6.0 0.6



There were significant area expansions in Mato Grosso (37%) and Bahia (26%). Total area is up 36% from last year.


Brazil 2018/19 Cotton Area Differencefrom 2017/18 (hectares)

Source: CONABCrop Signal Data Mgmt and Modeling by GDA Corp


Brazil Cotton Production

May 10, 2019


Central Mato Grosso, Brazil Cotton Region

Source: WMO Station DataSource: WMO Station Data

Southeastern Mato Grosso, Brazil Cotton RegionWMO Cumulative Precipitation WMO Cumulative Precipitation

MODIS 8-Day NDVIMODIS 8-Day NDVI

Source: MODIS 8-day NDVI & UMD 2013 Crop Mask,NASA/GSFC/GIMMS, USDA/FAS/IPAD

Source: MODIS 8-day NDVI & UMD 2013 Crop Mask,NASA/GSFC/GIMMS, USDA/FAS/IPAD

May 10, 2019

14291400

1345

1464

15471603

1350

1626

17081747

1686

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2009

/201

0

2010

/201

1

2011

/201

2

2012

/201

3

2013

/201

4

2014

/201

5

2015

/201

6

2016

/201

7

2017

/201

8

2018

/201

9E

2019

/202

0F

Kilo

gram

/Hec

tare

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or M

etric

Ton

sBRAZIL Cotton

Area Production Yield Source: USDA FAS PSD


2018/19 PRODUCTION estimated at a record due to higher area and favorable weather.AREA 1.6 mha RECORD YIELD 1747 kg/ha PRODUCTION 12.8 Mbales or 2.8 mmt

May 10, 2019

World Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



---------------- Million bales ----------------Beginning stocks 81.1 ** 76.5 -4.6Production 118.4 -0.5 125.5 7.0Total Supply 199.5 -0.5 201.9 2.4Consumption 122.7 -0.5 125.9 3.2

Trade 42.0 -0.1 45.3 3.3Ending Stocks 76.5 ** 75.7 -0.8

AddendumChina ending stocks 33.6 0.5 30.7 -2.9

** Rounds to zero.

May 10, 2019

U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



Planted area (million acres) 14.10 ** 13.78 -0.32Harvested area (million acres) 10.21 -0.32 12.54 2.34Yield (pounds per acre) 864 26 842 -22

------------ Million bales ------------Beginning stocks 4.30 -- 4.65 0.35Production 18.37 -0.02 22.00 3.63Imports 0.01 -- 0.01 --Total supply 22.67 -0.02 26.66 3.98

Mill use 3.10 -- 3.10 --Exports 14.75 -0.25 17.00 2.25Total use 17.85 -0.25 20.10 2.25

Unaccounted 0.17 -0.02 0.16 -0.02Ending stocks 4.65 0.25 6.40 1.75

----------------- Percent -----------------Stocks to use ratio 26.1 1.7 31.8 5.8

Average market price 70.00 -- 65.00 -5.00-- No change. ** Rounds to zero.

------------ Cents per pound ------------

U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



------------ Thousand short tons, raw value ------------Beginning Stocks 2,008 -- 1,505 -503Production 8,947 -113 9,115 168Beets 4,910 -87 5,114 204Cane 4,037 -26 4,001 -36

Imports 2,855 -7 3,219 364TRQ 1,538 -22 1,381 -157Re-export 350 -- 350 --Mexico 897 -- 1,418 521High-tier 70 15 70 --Total Supply 13,810 -120 13,839 29

Exports 35 -- 35 --Domestic deliveries 12,270 -- 12,320 50Total use 12,305 -- 12,355 50

Ending stocks 1,505 -120 1,484 -21----------------- Percent -----------------

Stocks/use ratio 12.2 -1.0 12.0 -0.2-- No change.

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



------------ Thousand metric tons ------------Beginning Stocks 1,395 -- 995 -400Production 6,200 48 6,100 -100Imports 70 -- 70 0

Total Supply 7,665 48 7,165 -500Domestic Use 4,716 -379 4,776 60Exports 1,954 852 1,394 -560Total use 6,670 473 6,170 -500

Ending stocks 995 -425 995 0-- No change.

U.S. Meat Production and Prices

May 10, 2019

2019 2020

Item ForecastChange from

April 9 ForecastChange from

2019Production ------------ Billion Pounds ------------Beef 27.27 -0.01 27.51 0.24Pork 27.32 ** 28.29 0.96Broilers 42.99 -0.02 43.55 0.56Turkey 5.88 0.02 5.94 0.06Total Meat 104.23 -0.02 106.06 1.83

Prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Steers 118.32 -1.25 120.75 2.43Hogs 54.67 9.00 60.25 5.58

------------ Cents per pound ------------Broilers 93.0 -3.0 97.0 4.0Turkey 85.7 -1.5 88.3 2.6

** Rounds to zero.

U.S. Meat TradeMillion Pounds

May 10, 2019

2019 2020



2019------------ Exports ------------

Beef 3,171 -84 3,245 74Pork 6,246 71 6,675 430Broilers 7,107 -38 7,250 143Turkey 612 2 630 18Mature chickens 70 2 72 2Total Meat 17,212 -48 17,879 667

------------ Imports ------------Beef 3,013 3 2,960 -53

U.S. Milk Supply and Demand

May 10, 2019

2019 2020



2019------------ Billion pounds ------------

Production 218.7 -0.9 222.7 4.1Fat BasisImports 6.5 ** 6.6 0.1Commercial use 214.6 -0.9 217.8 3.2Exports 10.2 0.3 10.4 0.2

Skim-solid BasisImports 5.1 -0.2 5.0 -0.1Commercial use 180.5 -1.0 183.0 2.6Exports 42.6 0.3 43.6 1.0** Rounds to zero.

U.S. Dairy Product Prices

May 10, 2019

2019 2020



2019

Product prices ------------ Dollars per pound ------------Cheese 1.65 0.07 1.71 0.06Butter 2.29 ** 2.36 0.07Nonfat dry milk 1.01 0.02 1.04 0.04Dry whey 0.39 ** 0.38 -0.01

Class prices ------------ Dollars per cwt ------------Class III 16.05 0.70 16.55 0.50Class IV 16.20 0.15 16.80 0.60All milk 18.05 0.55 18.80 0.75** Rounds to zero.

U.S. Production Summary

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1,884 -- 1,897 12Rice (million cwt) 224.2 -- 218.2 -6.0Corn (million bushels) 14,420 -- 15,030 610Sorghum (million bushels) 365 -- 310 -55Barley (million bushels) 153 -- 157 4Oats (million bushels) 56 -- 60 4Soybeans (million bushels) 4,544 -- 4,150 -394Soybean oil (million pounds) 24,570 -- 24,535 -35Soybean meal (thousand s.t.) 49,095 -3 49,800 705Cotton (million bales) 18.37 -0.02 22.00 3.63Sugar (thousand s.t., raw value 8,947 -113 9,115 168

Milk (billion pounds) 218.7 -0.9 222.7 4.1

Meat (billion pounds)Beef 27.27 -0.01 27.51 0.24Pork 27.32 ** 28.29 0.96Broilers 42.99 -0.02 43.55 0.56Turkey 5.88 0.02 5.94 0.06Total Meat 104.23 -0.02 106.06 1.83

-- No change. ** Rounds to zero.

U.S. Consumption Summary

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 1,072 -25 1,123 52Rice (million cwt) 135.0 -- 140.0 5.0Corn (million bushels) 12,200 -65 12,400 200Sorghum (million bushels) 255 -- 225 -30Barley (million bushels) 160 -- 163 3Oats (million bushels) 147 -2 158 11Soybeans (million bushels) 2,229 -- 2,245 16Soybean oil (million pounds) 22,950 100 23,600 650Soybean meal (thousand s.t.) 35,950 -- 36,600 650Cotton (million bales) 3.10 -- 3.10 --Sugar (thousand s.t., raw value 12,270 -- 12,320 50

Milk (billion pounds, fat basis) 214.6 -0.9 217.8 3.2

Meat (Billion pounds)Beef 27.16 0.08 27.31 0.14Pork 22.11 -0.07 22.57 0.46Broilers 35.56 0.05 35.97 0.41Turkey 5.28 0.02 5.33 0.04Total Meat 91.08 0.06 92.15 1.07

-- No change.

U.S. Export Summary

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



Crops and ProductsWheat (million bushels) 925 -20 900 -25Rice (million cwt) 93.0 -1.0 101.0 8.0Corn (million bushels) 2,300 -- 2,275 -25Sorghum (million bushels) 85 -- 100 15Soybeans (million bushels) 1,775 -100 1,950 175Soybean oil (million pounds) 2,150 -100 1,800 -350Soybean meal (thousand s.t.) 13,750 -- 13,600 -150Cotton (million bales) 14.75 -0.25 17.00 2.25

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 3,171 -84 3,245 74Pork 6,246 71 6,675 430Broilers 7,107 -38 7,250 143Turkey 612 2 630 18Mature Chickens 70 2 72 2Total Meat 17,212 -48 17,879 667

-- No change.

Price Summary

May 10, 2019

2018/2019 2019/2020



Crops and productsWheat ($/bu) 5.20 -- 4.70 -0.50Rice ($/cwt) 12.00 -0.10 11.20 -0.80Corn ($/bu) 3.50 -0.05 3.30 -0.20Soybeans ($/bu) 8.55 -0.05 8.10 -0.45Soybean oil (¢/lb) 28.00 -1.00 29.50 1.50Soybean meal ($/s.t.) 305 -10 290 -15Cotton (¢/lb) 70.00 -- 65.00 -5.00

LivestockSteers ($/cwt) 118.32 -1.25 120.75 2.43Hogs ($/cwt) 54.67 9.00 60.25 5.58Broilers (¢/lb) 93.0 -3.0 97.0 4.0Turkeys (¢/lb) 85.7 -1.5 88.3 2.6

Dairy productsCheese ($/lb) 1.65 0.07 1.71 0.06Butter ($/lb) 2.29 ** 2.36 0.07Nonfat dry milk ($/lb) 1.01 0.02 1.04 0.04Dry whey ($/lb) 0.39 ** 0.38 -0.01

Milk classesClass III ($/cwt) 16.05 0.70 16.55 0.50Class IV ($/cwt) 16.20 0.15 16.80 0.60All milk ($/cwt) 18.05 0.55 18.80 0.75

-- No change. ** Rounds to zero.

Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts�World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chairing Agency�Economic Research Service�Foreign Agricultural Service�Farm Service Agency�Agricultural Marketing ServiceSlide Number 2World Wheat ProductionSlide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20World Wheat Supply and UseU.S. Wheat Supply and DemandWorld Rice ProductionWorld Rice Supply and UseU.S. Rice Supply and DemandWorld Corn ProductionSlide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32World Corn Supply and UseU.S. Corn Supply and DemandWorld Soybean ProductionSlide Number 36Slide Number 37Slide Number 38Slide Number 39Slide Number 40Slide Number 41Slide Number 42World Soybean Supply and UseChina Soybean Supply and UseU.S. Soybeans Supply and DemandWorld Cotton ProductionSlide Number 47Slide Number 48Slide Number 49World Cotton Supply and DemandSlide Number 51U.S. Cotton Supply and DemandU.S. Sugar Supply and DemandMexico Sugar Supply and DemandU.S. Meat Production and PricesU.S. Meat Trade�Million PoundsU.S. Milk Supply and DemandU.S. Dairy Product PricesU.S. Production SummaryU.S. Consumption SummaryU.S. Export SummaryPrice Summary

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