world agricultural production

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Circular Series WAP 1-16 January 2016

South Africa’s Corn: Area and Production Down due to Lack of Rain

South Africa’s 2015/16 corn production forecast was reduced to 8.0 million metric tons, down 4.0 million tons from last month and down 2.8 million from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 2.2 million hectares, down 0.8 million hectares from last month and last year. The forecast yield is 3.63 tons per hectare, down 10 percent from the 5-year average.

Area was significantly reduced due to insufficient start-of-season rainfall for planting and emergence in the western corn belt. Sparse rainfall from

October through December hampered planting and emergence during the optimal planting season. Planting typically begins after sufficient rainfall has been received.

Landsat-8 satellite imagery shows mostly bare fields in the western corn belt at the end of December. In addition, vegetative indices from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite imagery showed very little vegetation emerged by early January, especially within the western corn belt of western Free State and North-west provinces.

A lack of rainfall delayed planting by 40 days or more in the eastern corn belt of KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, and eastern Free State provinces. Below average yields are expected within the

World Agricultural Production

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

eastern corn belt due to delayed planting and below average rainfall during the current growing season. (For more information, please contact [email protected].)

China Corn: Production Rebounds from Last Year’s Drought Stricken Crop

China’s 2015/16 corn production estimate was revised slightly this month to a record 224.6 million metric tons, up 8.9 million tons from last year due to higher planted area and improved yield. Harvested area is estimated at 38.1 million hectares, up 1.0 million hectares from last year and is the tenth consecutive year-to-year area increase. Yield is estimated at 5.89 tons per hectare, up 1.4 percent from last year but down 2.0 percent from the record set in 2013/14.

The revision is based on data published by China’s National

Bureau of Statistics in December. Although province level data for 2015/16 is not yet available, analysis suggests a significant year-to-year production increase in the Northeast, China’s most important corn-growing region, following last year’s drought. Estimated corn production also increased in Northwest China (Xinjiang, Gansu, and Shaanxi provinces) and Henan province on the North China Plain.

Area in China has been steadily increasing in response to government policies that encouraged grain production, such as subsidies for inputs, a minimum procurement price that is significantly above the world price, and large government stock purchases. The introduction of new hybrid varieties has enabled corn planting to extend northward into areas formerly sown to soybeans. Corn has also replaced cotton, minor grains, and fodder crops that are generally less profitable. Since 2006, China’s corn area and production has increased by 36 percent and 48 percent, respectively. (For more information, please contact [email protected].)

2

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA January 2016Office of Global Analysis

mailto:[email protected]


Russia Corn: Estimated Production Reduced but Still a Record

Russia corn production for 2015/16 is estimated at a record 13.0 million metric tons, down 0.5 million tons from last month but up 1.7 million tons from last year. The month-to-month decrease is based on analysis of harvest data from Rosstat, the state statistical agency. Harvested area is estimated at a record 2.65 million hectares, down slightly from last month but slightly surpassing last year’s record. Yield is estimated at 4.91 tons per hectare, down 1.9 percent from last month, up 13 percent from last year, and 17 percent above the 5-year average.

On December 25, Rosstat released preliminary data citing corn output at 12.7 million tons from harvested area of 2.6 million hectares, with a yield of 4.90 tons per hectare. Final production data typically is published in April, and for the past four years the final reported output for corn has surpassed the preliminary figure by at least 0.2 million tons. The difference is most likely attributable to a combination of end-of-season harvest and routine delays in the collection of harvest data. The difference between preliminary and final yield, meanwhile, has been negligible. (For more information, please contact [email protected].)

Ukraine Corn: Harvest Approaches Completion

Ukraine corn production for 2015/16 is estimated at 23.5 million metric tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month but down 5.0 million tons from last year. The revision is based on an increase in the estimated harvested area, from 4.0 to 4.1 million hectares. Yield is estimated at 5.73 tons per hectare, virtually unchanged from last month but down 6.8 percent from last year.

Reports from the Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food indicate that output had reached 23.3 million tons from 4.07 million hectares as of December 18, and that over 98 percent of the planted area had been harvested by that date. Severe drought prevailed throughout the growing season in the western half of Ukraine, but the low yields in the western territories were offset by above normal yields farther east. Preliminary harvest data will be released by the State Statistical Committee of Ukraine in mid-January. (For more information, please contact [email protected].)

Brazil Soybeans: Production Unchanged at a Record 100 Million Tons

USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2015/16 soybean production at a record 100.0 million metric tons, unchanged from last month and up 3.8 million tons from last year. Harvested area is unchanged and is estimated at a record 33.3 million hectares, up 1.2 million hectares from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.00 tons per hectare, slightly above the 5-year average.

3




Heat and dryness in Mato Grosso and northeastern Brazil has heightened concerns among forecasters causing some to reduce their estimates. Planting is complete and the high temperatures may have resulted in some damage to soybeans at pod set and pod fill, especially in Mato Grosso—Brazil’s largest soybean producing state. IMEA—the state agency in Mato Grosso—conducted an online survey of crop conditions in mid-December and reported that 43 percent were in poor to very poor conditions. IMEA lowered their yield estimate to 3.05 from 3.16 tons per hectare. Early harvest results have been poor. Recent rains in Mato Grosso and northeastern Brazil may have ameliorated the dryness.

Meanwhile in southern Brazil (Parana, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina accounting for 35 percent of production) rains continued boosting yield prospects for soybeans. DERAL—the state agency in Parana—increased their yield estimates to 3.44 from 3.39 tons per hectare.

Satellite-derived vegetation indices show conditions near normal and slightly below last year for most areas including Mato Grosso—in contrast to the reported crop conditions. Progress of the soybean crop in Mato Grosso is mixed according to the Crop Enhancement Index (CEI) with normal progress west of BR-163 and delayed progress east of BR-163. The CEI is a

measurement of biomass differences between the minimal levels during the dry season and the increased amounts during the rainy season.

4


Planting was delayed in western Bahia, a minor area with about 3 percent of national production. The recent rains at the end of December and continued rains in January will be needed to reach average yield potential. (For more information, please contact [email protected].)

Pakistan Cotton: Estimated Output decreased based on Arrival Data

USDA estimates Pakistan’s 2015/16 cotton production at 7.2 million bales (480-pound bales), down 0.8 million bales from last month and down 3.4 million bales from last year. Area harvested is estimated at 2.8 million hectares, same as last month, and down 0.15 million hectares from last year. The yield is estimated at 560 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), down 10 percent from last month, down 28 percent from last year, and down 22 percent from the 5-year average.

Harvest is almost complete and for two consecutive months, December and January, USDA has reduced estimated production by 11 and 10 percent, respectively. The major reason for these downward revisions are continued reports of significantly poor productivity across the major cotton growing provinces – Punjab and Sindh. Yields are reported at record low levels due to widespread Whitefly and cotton leaf curl virus infestations. Treatment was ineffective because farmers cutback on chemical use in an effort to reduce costs. Farmers also limited the number of cotton pickings. Cotton picking labor costs are relatively higher this year, 400 to 500 Rupees per 40 kg, further reducing the farmers’ cash profit.

Harvest of the early crop (sown in February) started in June; harvest of the late crop (planted in May) began September. The peak harvest is typically in October. According to the Pakistan Cotton Ginner’s Association (PCGA), cumulative seed cotton arrivals at gins at the end of December are down approximately 33 percent from the same time last year. At the provincial level, the arrivals are down 45 percent in Punjab and 5 percent in Sindh.

USDA analysis based on satellite-derived vegetation indices show significant variation in biomass and crop vigor. Early-to-mid season crop conditions were favorable; but conditions deteriorated beginning in mid-season due to ideal conditions in Punjab for infestations of Whitefly and Cotton leaf curl virus. (For more information, please contact [email protected].)

5




Philippine Rice: Production Forecast Higher on Revised Typhoon Losses

Philippine 2015/16 rice production is forecast at 11.5 million tons (milled basis), up 0.25 million tons from last month but down 0.4 million from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 4.65 million hectares, up 0.3 million from last month but down 0.06 million from last year. Yield is estimated above-average at 3.93 tons per hectare.

Super Typhoon Koppu struck prime rice-growing areas in the northern island of Luzon in mid-October 2015, causing widespread flooding and reports of extensive wind-related crop damage. The typhoon slowly meandered over the island for seven consecutive days, inundating crops at or near harvest stage with up to 43 inches of rainfall. Initial post-disaster crop loss estimates from the government and the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) indicated up to 1.1 million tons of paddy was lost (0.7 MMT milled basis). Final field assessments from the

Philippine government in December, however, indicated losses were not that high. The typhoon’s torrential rains had replenished Luzon’s main irrigation reservoirs which will enable greater irrigated crop acreage during the remainder of 2016. The government is forecasting higher rice area and production in the final two quarters of the 2015/16 growing season as a result of the improved irrigation supply. Approximately 40 percent of annual rice production occurs in the January to June period, which marks the last half of the USDA 2015/16 marketing year. (For more information, please contact [email protected].)

6



World Agricultural Production U.S. Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service / Office of Global Analysis International Production Assessment Division (IPAD / PECAD)

Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC 20250-1051

http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/ Telephone: (202) 720-1156 Fax: (202) 720-1158

This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service’s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Production Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA’s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-549), January 12, 2016.

Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at 1-800-363-2068.

The FAS International Production Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, February 9, 2016.

Conversion Table

Metric tons to bushels

Wheat, soybeans = MT * 36.7437 Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * 39.36825 Barley = MT * 45.929625 Oats = MT * 68.894438

Metric tons to 480-lb bales

Cotton = MT * 4.592917

Metric tons to hundredweight

Rice = MT * 22.04622

Area & weight 1 hectare = 2.471044 acres 1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds

7


http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/

For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis

International Production Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building

Washington, DC 20250-1051

Telephone: (202) 720-1156 Fax: (202) 720-1158

GENERAL INFORMATION Director Ronald Frantz 202-720-4056 [email protected] Deputy Director Robert Tetrault 202-720-1071 [email protected] USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280 [email protected] Sr. Analyst/Satellite Imagery Curt Reynolds, PhD 202-690-0134 [email protected] Archives Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/ Technical Lead Dath Mita, PhD 202-720-7339 [email protected] Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 [email protected] Projects Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Vacant GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 [email protected]

COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION South America, Argentina and Colombia Denise McWilliams, PhD 202-720-0107 [email protected] Western and Central Europe Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138 [email protected] and North Africa Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143 [email protected] and other FSU-12 countries

Canada, Caribbean, Sri Lanka Arnella Trent 202-720-0881 [email protected] and Bangladesh

East Asia, China, and Japan Paulette Sandene 202-690-0133 [email protected] India, Pakistan, and Nepal Dath Mita, PhD 202-720-7339 [email protected] Sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico, Curt Reynolds, PhD 202-690-0134 [email protected] Nigeria and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean 202-720-7366 [email protected] Cambodia, and Vietnam Brazil, Venezuela, Central America, Vacant Australia, New Zealand, Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 [email protected] Papua New Guinea and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD 202-260-8109 [email protected] Iran, Syria Western United States Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 [email protected] Eastern United States Vacant




The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

(WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m.

FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7 Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online):

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx EU Countries Area & Production Estimates

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDownload.aspx Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports):

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx Export Sales Report:

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/ Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports):

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/ Economic Research Service: http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

National Agricultural Statistics Service: http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/


http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDownload.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Million Metric Tons

Table 01 World Crop Production Summary

World

-

Total

Foreign

North

America

North

America

North

America

Former

Soviet

Former

Soviet

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

South

America

South

America

Selected

Other

Selected

Other

Selected

Other

All

Others

none

-

none

-

United

States

Mexico

-

Canada

-

Russia

-

Ukraine

-

China

-

India

-

Indo-

nesia

Paki-

stan

Thai-

land

Argen-

tina

Brazil

-

Aus-

tralia

Turkey

-

none

-

none

-

South

Africa

Commodity

---Million metric tons---

Wheat

2013/14 240.618.81.925.35.310.50.024.20.093.5121.922.352.13.437.558.1657.2715.4

2014/15 prel. 246.615.31.823.76.012.50.026.00.095.9126.224.859.13.729.455.1670.8725.9

2015/16 proj.

Dec 252.719.51.526.06.010.50.025.00.088.9130.027.060.53.827.655.8679.1734.9

Jan 252.519.51.526.05.610.50.025.50.088.9130.227.061.03.827.655.8679.5735.4

Coarse Grains

2013/14 330.413.115.512.282.635.75.05.49.143.2225.440.035.732.028.7367.1914.01,281.1

2014/15 prel. 348.69.511.311.787.633.54.95.18.842.0222.839.440.432.422.0377.2919.71,297.0

2015/16 proj.

Dec 324.014.112.612.784.133.54.85.79.639.1231.532.839.031.325.7368.2900.41,268.6

Jan 324.114.18.512.784.133.54.85.59.639.1231.633.337.331.325.7366.9895.01,261.9

Rice, Milled

2013/14 148.40.50.00.68.31.020.56.836.3106.6142.50.10.60.10.06.1472.4478.5

2014/15 prel. 149.10.50.00.58.51.018.87.035.6104.8144.60.00.70.20.07.1471.1478.3

2015/16 proj.

Dec 147.60.50.00.28.00.916.46.936.3100.0145.50.00.70.10.06.1463.3469.3

Jan 148.10.50.00.28.00.916.46.936.3100.0145.80.00.70.10.06.1464.0470.1

Total Grains

2013/14 719.432.317.438.196.247.225.436.445.4243.4489.962.488.435.566.3431.32,043.62,474.9

2014/15 prel. 744.325.213.035.8102.147.023.638.144.4242.6493.564.2100.136.351.4439.52,061.72,501.1

2015/16 proj.

Dec 724.434.114.238.998.144.921.237.645.9228.0507.059.9100.235.253.3430.12,042.82,472.8

Jan 724.634.110.038.997.744.921.237.945.9228.0507.560.399.035.253.3428.82,038.62,467.5

Oilseeds

2013/14 81.82.51.95.890.056.90.64.611.536.858.616.713.60.924.099.0406.1505.2

2014/15 prel. 84.72.61.84.399.266.10.55.112.133.657.716.313.01.222.5116.0420.5536.5

2015/16 proj.

Dec 82.02.22.14.0102.861.30.63.912.132.054.116.513.31.023.5117.7411.3529.0

Jan 82.12.21.64.0102.861.10.63.512.131.854.416.513.61.023.5116.2410.8526.9

Cotton

2013/14 17.62.30.04.18.01.20.09.50.031.032.80.00.00.90.012.9107.5120.4

2014/15 prel. 17.73.20.12.37.01.10.010.60.029.530.00.00.01.40.016.3102.8119.2

2015/16 proj.

Dec 16.32.70.12.46.51.00.08.00.028.524.30.00.01.00.013.090.7103.7

Jan 16.02.70.12.46.51.00.07.20.028.023.80.00.01.00.012.988.6101.6

1/ Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.


Table 02 Wheat Area, Yield, and Production

From last month From last year

MMTPercent

Yield

(Metric tons per hectare)

Jan 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production

(Million metric tons)

Change in Production

2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Dec Dec

Prel.

2014/15 Jan

Prel.

2014/15 Dec Jan Percent

2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

219.86World 1.319.480.060.46735.39222.52 224.81 224.83 3.25 3.26 3.27 3.27 715.35 725.91 734.93

18.35United States 1.260.690.000.0055.8418.77 19.06 19.06 3.17 2.94 2.93 2.93 58.11 55.15 55.84

201.51Total Foreign 1.318.780.070.46679.55203.75 205.75 205.78 3.26 3.29 3.30 3.30 657.25 670.76 679.09

none

25.88European Union 0.931.450.200.31157.9826.79 26.69 26.73 5.59 5.84 5.91 5.91 144.58 156.53 157.66

24.12China 3.163.980.150.19130.1924.07 24.15 24.14 5.06 5.24 5.38 5.39 121.93 126.21 130.00

South Asia

30.00 India -7.21-6.910.000.0088.9430.47 30.60 30.60 3.12 3.15 2.91 2.91 93.51 95.85 88.94

8.66 Pakistan -1.93-0.501.910.4825.489.20 9.10 9.18 2.80 2.82 2.75 2.78 24.21 25.98 25.00

2.55 Afghanistan -0.50-0.030.000.005.002.56 2.55 2.55 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 5.00 5.03 5.00

0.77 Nepal -4.55-0.095.000.091.890.77 0.77 0.77 2.48 2.57 2.34 2.45 1.90 1.98 1.80

Former Soviet Union - 12

23.40 Russia 3.251.920.830.5061.0023.64 25.50 25.60 2.23 2.50 2.37 2.38 52.09 59.08 60.50

6.57 Ukraine 9.092.250.000.0027.006.30 7.00 7.00 3.39 3.93 3.86 3.86 22.28 24.75 27.00

12.95 Kazakhstan 7.731.000.000.0014.0011.92 11.50 11.50 1.08 1.09 1.22 1.22 13.94 13.00 14.00

1.40 Uzbekistan 0.700.050.000.007.201.40 1.40 1.40 4.86 5.11 5.14 5.14 6.80 7.15 7.20

0.69 Belarus -17.24-0.500.000.002.400.73 0.70 0.70 3.06 4.00 3.43 3.43 2.10 2.90 2.40

10.44Canada -6.19-1.820.000.0027.609.48 9.60 9.60 3.59 3.10 2.88 2.88 37.53 29.42 27.60

South America

3.50 Argentina -16.00-2.000.000.0010.504.20 3.50 3.50 3.00 2.98 3.00 3.00 10.50 12.50 10.50

2.20 Brazil -6.67-0.40-6.67-0.405.602.73 2.45 2.45 2.41 2.20 2.45 2.29 5.30 6.00 6.00

0.46 Uruguay -7.06-0.08-41.18-0.701.000.40 0.48 0.30 3.32 2.70 3.54 3.33 1.53 1.08 1.70

12.63Australia 9.862.330.000.0026.0013.81 13.80 13.80 2.00 1.71 1.88 1.88 25.30 23.67 26.00

Africa

1.35 Egypt -2.41-0.200.000.008.101.35 1.26 1.26 6.11 6.15 6.43 6.43 8.25 8.30 8.10

3.28 Morocco 56.862.900.000.008.003.06 3.20 3.20 2.13 1.67 2.50 2.50 7.00 5.10 8.00

1.75 Ethiopia -11.36-0.500.000.003.901.80 1.80 1.80 2.43 2.44 2.17 2.17 4.25 4.40 3.90

2.00 Algeria 42.110.800.000.002.701.70 2.10 2.10 1.65 1.12 1.29 1.29 3.30 1.90 2.70

Middle East

7.70 Turkey 27.874.250.000.0019.507.71 7.86 7.86 2.44 1.98 2.48 2.48 18.75 15.25 19.50

6.40 Iran 7.691.000.000.0014.006.80 6.80 6.80 2.27 1.91 2.06 2.06 14.50 13.00 14.00

2.57 Iraq -5.71-0.200.000.003.302.46 2.45 2.45 1.29 1.42 1.35 1.35 3.30 3.50 3.30

1.55 Syria 40.001.000.000.003.501.30 1.45 1.45 2.58 1.92 2.41 2.41 4.00 2.50 3.50

0.64Mexico 2.520.090.000.003.780.71 0.82 0.82 5.29 5.21 4.59 4.59 3.38 3.69 3.78

8.06Others -4.67-1.03-0.08-0.0220.998.40 8.22 8.22 2.73 2.62 2.56 2.55 22.01 22.02 21.01

World and Selected Countries and Regions


Table 03 Total Coarse Grain Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Dec Dec

Prel.

2014/15 Jan

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

321.60World -2.70-35.03-0.52-6.621,261.95322.22 321.51 320.17 3.98 4.03 3.95 3.94 1,281.05 1,296.98 1,268.56

39.81United States -2.74-10.33-0.34-1.25366.9037.77 37.66 37.78 9.22 9.99 9.78 9.71 367.09 377.23 368.16

281.79Total Foreign -2.69-24.70-0.60-5.36895.05284.45 283.85 282.39 3.24 3.23 3.17 3.17 913.96 919.75 900.41

none

38.28China 3.968.830.030.08231.5839.18 39.83 40.15 5.89 5.68 5.81 5.77 225.41 222.75 231.50

31.39European Union -11.70-19.970.170.25150.6830.76 30.46 30.44 5.06 5.55 4.94 4.95 158.92 170.64 150.43

South America

16.81 Brazil -4.02-3.520.000.0084.0816.75 16.78 16.78 4.91 5.23 5.01 5.01 82.60 87.60 84.08

5.93 Argentina -0.21-0.070.000.0033.465.17 5.30 5.30 6.01 6.48 6.31 6.31 35.67 33.53 33.46


15.49 Russia -7.59-3.07-4.31-1.6837.3216.73 16.10 15.23 2.31 2.41 2.42 2.45 35.74 40.39 39.00

8.79 Ukraine -15.59-6.141.290.4333.258.44 7.44 7.50 4.56 4.67 4.41 4.44 40.02 39.39 32.83

2.26 Kazakhstan 1.470.050.000.003.442.31 2.39 2.39 1.55 1.47 1.44 1.44 3.51 3.39 3.44

1.23 Belarus -5.66-0.240.000.004.001.21 1.22 1.22 3.10 3.50 3.29 3.29 3.79 4.24 4.00

Africa

13.25 Nigeria -5.60-1.070.000.0017.9513.65 13.10 13.10 1.46 1.39 1.37 1.37 19.29 19.02 17.95

3.28 South Africa -24.27-2.74-32.33-4.088.543.25 3.22 2.41 4.73 3.47 3.92 3.55 15.52 11.28 12.62

5.17 Tanzania 8.080.500.000.006.695.25 5.25 5.25 1.26 1.18 1.27 1.27 6.51 6.19 6.69

4.08 Burkina 4.800.210.000.004.503.85 3.85 3.85 1.11 1.12 1.17 1.17 4.54 4.29 4.50

6.16 Ethiopia -7.12-0.950.000.0012.405.89 5.84 5.84 2.35 2.27 2.12 2.12 14.47 13.35 12.40

0.94 Egypt 0.590.040.000.006.860.97 0.97 0.97 7.10 7.04 7.05 7.05 6.66 6.82 6.86

3.02 Mali -2.22-0.100.000.004.403.20 3.20 3.20 1.15 1.41 1.38 1.38 3.48 4.50 4.40

25.24India -6.84-2.870.000.0039.1024.38 24.80 24.80 1.71 1.72 1.58 1.58 43.22 41.97 39.10

Southeast Asia

3.12 Indonesia 9.090.800.000.009.602.94 3.14 3.14 2.92 2.99 3.06 3.06 9.10 8.80 9.60

2.58 Philippines 1.680.130.000.007.802.56 2.60 2.60 2.91 3.00 3.00 3.00 7.53 7.67 7.80

1.18 Vietnam 13.640.720.000.006.001.18 1.30 1.30 4.40 4.47 4.62 4.62 5.19 5.28 6.00

1.15 Thailand -2.06-0.100.000.004.761.13 1.12 1.12 4.31 4.30 4.25 4.25 4.96 4.86 4.76

9.39Mexico -3.29-1.070.000.0031.339.31 9.08 9.08 3.41 3.48 3.45 3.45 32.02 32.39 31.33

5.40Canada 16.683.670.000.0025.664.44 4.87 4.87 5.33 4.95 5.27 5.27 28.75 21.99 25.66

5.19Australia 8.791.020.000.0012.685.31 5.64 5.64 2.34 2.19 2.25 2.25 12.16 11.65 12.68

Middle East

4.24 Turkey 48.554.600.000.0014.084.28 4.35 4.35 3.08 2.21 3.24 3.24 13.08 9.48 14.08

2.07 Iran 1.740.100.000.005.862.01 2.04 2.04 2.59 2.87 2.88 2.88 5.36 5.76 5.86

66.19Others -3.39-3.48-0.36-0.3699.0570.31 69.98 69.84 1.46 1.46 1.42 1.42 96.49 102.53 99.40

World and Selected Countries and Regions; Coarse Grain includes: Barley, Corn, Millet, Mixed Grains, Oats, Rye and Sorghum


Table 04 Corn Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Dec Dec

Prel.

2014/15 Jan

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

181.19World -4.02-40.59-0.61-5.94967.93178.59 177.28 176.79 5.47 5.65 5.49 5.48 991.39 1,008.52 973.87

35.39United States -4.32-15.61-0.38-1.33345.4933.64 32.64 32.68 9.93 10.73 10.62 10.57 351.27 361.09 346.82

145.80Total Foreign -3.86-24.99-0.73-4.61622.45144.95 144.63 144.11 4.39 4.47 4.34 4.32 640.12 647.43 627.05

none

36.32China 4.148.93-0.19-0.42224.5837.12 37.85 38.12 6.02 5.81 5.94 5.89 218.49 215.65 225.00

South America

15.80 Brazil -4.12-3.500.000.0081.5015.75 15.80 15.80 5.06 5.40 5.16 5.16 80.00 85.00 81.50

3.40 Argentina -3.40-0.900.000.0025.603.20 3.20 3.20 7.65 8.28 8.00 8.00 26.00 26.50 25.60

0.32 Bolivia 0.690.010.000.000.730.32 0.32 0.32 2.30 2.30 2.31 2.31 0.73 0.73 0.73

9.66European Union -23.80-18.040.000.0057.759.53 9.29 9.29 6.69 7.95 6.22 6.22 64.64 75.79 57.75

Africa

3.08 South Africa -25.93-2.80-33.33-4.008.003.05 3.00 2.20 4.85 3.54 4.00 3.64 14.93 10.80 12.00

4.25 Nigeria -6.85-0.520.000.007.004.15 3.80 3.80 1.81 1.81 1.84 1.84 7.70 7.52 7.00

2.68 Ethiopia -7.69-0.500.000.006.002.40 2.40 2.40 2.78 2.71 2.50 2.50 7.45 6.50 6.00

0.71 Egypt 0.670.040.000.006.000.75 0.75 0.75 8.12 8.00 8.00 8.00 5.80 5.96 6.00

4.12 Tanzania 10.000.500.000.005.504.00 4.00 4.00 1.30 1.25 1.38 1.38 5.36 5.00 5.50

1.68 Malawi -26.78-1.050.000.002.881.75 1.75 1.75 2.17 2.25 1.64 1.64 3.64 3.93 2.88

1.00 Zambia -22.54-0.760.000.002.621.21 0.96 0.96 2.57 2.80 2.72 2.72 2.57 3.38 2.62

1.80 Kenya 5.660.150.000.002.801.65 1.70 1.70 1.56 1.61 1.65 1.65 2.80 2.65 2.80

1.00 Uganda -5.45-0.150.000.002.601.00 1.00 1.00 2.75 2.75 2.60 2.60 2.75 2.75 2.60

0.90 Zimbabwe -46.15-0.600.000.000.701.30 1.53 1.53 0.89 1.00 0.46 0.46 0.80 1.30 0.70


4.83 Ukraine -17.40-4.952.170.5023.504.63 4.00 4.10 6.40 6.15 5.75 5.73 30.90 28.45 23.00

2.32 Russia 14.791.68-3.70-0.5013.002.60 2.70 2.65 5.01 4.36 5.00 4.91 11.64 11.33 13.50

South Asia

9.07 India -11.28-2.670.000.0021.009.30 9.00 9.00 2.68 2.55 2.33 2.33 24.26 23.67 21.00

1.17 Pakistan 8.630.410.000.005.101.13 1.15 1.15 4.23 4.15 4.43 4.43 4.94 4.70 5.10

0.91 Nepal -13.04-0.300.000.002.000.91 0.90 0.90 2.52 2.54 2.22 2.22 2.28 2.30 2.00

Southeast Asia

3.12 Indonesia 9.090.800.000.009.602.94 3.14 3.14 2.92 2.99 3.06 3.06 9.10 8.80 9.60

2.58 Philippines 1.680.130.000.007.802.56 2.60 2.60 2.91 3.00 3.00 3.00 7.53 7.67 7.80

1.18 Vietnam 13.640.720.000.006.001.18 1.30 1.30 4.40 4.47 4.62 4.62 5.19 5.28 6.00

1.12 Thailand -2.08-0.100.000.004.701.10 1.09 1.09 4.38 4.36 4.31 4.31 4.90 4.80 4.70

7.05Mexico -7.77-1.980.000.0023.507.33 7.00 7.00 3.24 3.48 3.36 3.36 22.88 25.48 23.50

1.48Canada 18.392.110.000.0013.601.23 1.31 1.31 9.59 9.36 10.38 10.38 14.19 11.49 13.60

0.58Turkey 25.001.200.000.006.000.55 0.62 0.62 8.79 8.73 9.68 9.68 5.10 4.80 6.00

23.68Others -5.14-2.84-0.35-0.1952.3922.34 22.48 22.43 2.26 2.47 2.34 2.34 53.57 55.23 52.58



Table 05 Barley Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Dec Dec

Prel.

2014/15 Jan

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

50.51World 3.294.640.460.66145.8349.61 49.97 49.76 2.86 2.85 2.90 2.93 144.38 141.19 145.16

1.23United States 18.040.710.000.004.671.01 1.26 1.26 3.84 3.91 3.71 3.71 4.72 3.95 4.67

49.28Total Foreign 2.863.930.470.66141.1648.60 48.71 48.51 2.83 2.82 2.88 2.91 139.66 137.23 140.50

none

12.41European Union 0.830.500.380.2360.9612.39 12.34 12.33 4.81 4.88 4.92 4.95 59.67 60.46 60.73


8.02 Russia -14.61-2.932.400.4017.108.80 8.20 8.05 1.92 2.27 2.04 2.12 15.39 20.03 16.70

3.23 Ukraine -7.94-0.750.000.008.703.20 2.90 2.90 2.34 2.95 3.00 3.00 7.56 9.45 8.70

1.84 Kazakhstan 7.790.190.000.002.601.91 2.00 2.00 1.38 1.26 1.30 1.30 2.54 2.41 2.60

0.57 Belarus -11.11-0.250.000.002.000.63 0.60 0.60 2.94 3.60 3.33 3.33 1.67 2.25 2.00

0.33 Azerbaijan 16.670.100.000.000.700.30 0.30 0.30 2.50 2.00 2.33 2.33 0.82 0.60 0.70

2.65Canada 15.541.110.000.008.232.14 2.35 2.35 3.86 3.33 3.50 3.50 10.24 7.12 8.23

3.81Australia 8.560.690.000.008.703.84 4.00 4.00 2.41 2.09 2.18 2.18 9.17 8.01 8.70

Middle East

3.33 Turkey 85.003.400.000.007.403.40 3.40 3.40 2.19 1.18 2.18 2.18 7.30 4.00 7.40

1.64 Iran 3.130.100.000.003.301.58 1.60 1.60 1.71 2.03 2.06 2.06 2.80 3.20 3.30

1.07 Iraq 5.000.050.000.001.051.15 1.16 1.16 0.88 0.87 0.91 0.91 0.94 1.00 1.05

1.28 Syria 42.860.150.000.000.500.50 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.90 0.35 0.50

Africa

1.21 Ethiopia -9.52-0.200.000.001.901.25 1.20 1.20 1.70 1.68 1.58 1.58 2.05 2.10 1.90

1.69 Morocco 105.881.800.000.003.501.44 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.18 2.19 2.19 2.70 1.70 3.50

0.90 Algeria 0.000.000.000.001.300.80 1.00 1.00 1.67 1.63 1.30 1.30 1.50 1.30 1.30

0.24 Tunisia -55.56-0.500.000.000.400.58 0.40 0.40 1.31 1.55 1.00 1.00 0.32 0.90 0.40

0.08 South Africa 14.900.050.000.000.350.09 0.10 0.10 3.28 3.55 3.65 3.65 0.27 0.30 0.35

South America

1.27 Argentina 17.240.500.000.003.400.90 0.95 0.95 3.74 3.22 3.58 3.58 4.75 2.90 3.40

0.07 Uruguay 35.800.090.000.000.330.10 0.09 0.09 3.50 2.43 3.59 3.59 0.25 0.24 0.33

0.11 Brazil -6.67-0.020.000.000.280.12 0.10 0.10 3.14 2.56 2.80 2.80 0.33 0.30 0.28

0.70India -12.62-0.230.000.001.600.67 0.80 0.80 2.52 2.72 2.00 2.00 1.75 1.83 1.60

0.47China -6.08-0.1113.330.201.700.47 0.42 0.47 3.65 3.86 3.57 3.62 1.70 1.81 1.50

0.22Mexico 6.360.040.000.000.590.22 0.23 0.23 2.56 2.56 2.60 2.60 0.55 0.55 0.59

0.28Afghanistan 0.000.000.000.000.400.28 0.28 0.28 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.43 0.40 0.40 0.40

1.88Others 4.160.17-3.84-0.174.181.86 2.00 1.91 2.16 2.16 2.17 2.19 4.07 4.02 4.35



Table 06 Oats Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Dec Dec

Prel.

2014/15 Jan

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

9.68World -0.96-0.22-1.92-0.4322.109.37 9.69 9.52 2.43 2.38 2.33 2.32 23.50 22.31 22.53

0.41United States 27.580.280.000.001.300.42 0.52 0.52 2.30 2.43 2.52 2.52 0.94 1.02 1.30

9.27Total Foreign -2.33-0.50-2.04-0.4320.808.95 9.17 9.01 2.43 2.38 2.31 2.31 22.56 21.29 21.23

none

2.65European Union -2.61-0.210.250.027.642.54 2.63 2.63 3.16 3.09 2.90 2.91 8.38 7.85 7.62


3.01 Russia -13.61-0.72-9.00-0.454.553.08 3.00 2.84 1.64 1.71 1.67 1.60 4.93 5.27 5.00

0.24 Ukraine -38.52-0.240.000.000.380.25 0.20 0.20 1.94 2.49 1.88 1.88 0.47 0.61 0.38

0.13 Belarus -14.89-0.070.000.000.400.14 0.14 0.14 2.65 3.36 2.86 2.86 0.35 0.47 0.40

0.22 Kazakhstan 10.620.020.000.000.250.19 0.20 0.20 1.39 1.18 1.25 1.25 0.31 0.23 0.25

1.11Canada 15.140.450.000.003.430.93 1.05 1.05 3.51 3.21 3.27 3.27 3.91 2.98 3.43

South America

0.22 Argentina -7.62-0.040.000.000.490.25 0.24 0.24 2.07 2.14 2.06 2.06 0.45 0.53 0.49

0.17 Brazil 0.000.000.000.000.300.15 0.15 0.15 2.24 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.38 0.30 0.30

0.14 Chile 11.640.050.000.000.470.09 0.09 0.09 4.49 4.68 5.53 5.53 0.61 0.42 0.47

0.03 Uruguay 143.480.030.000.000.060.01 0.04 0.04 1.41 1.64 1.40 1.40 0.04 0.02 0.06

Oceania

0.72 Australia 19.600.210.000.001.300.68 0.80 0.80 1.76 1.59 1.63 1.63 1.26 1.09 1.30

0.01 New Zealand -2.860.00-5.560.000.030.01 0.01 0.01 5.60 5.00 6.00 5.67 0.03 0.04 0.04

0.20China 0.000.000.000.000.600.20 0.20 0.20 2.90 3.00 3.00 3.00 0.58 0.60 0.60

Africa

0.09 Algeria 0.000.000.000.000.110.09 0.09 0.09 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 0.11 0.11 0.11

0.05 Morocco 0.000.000.000.000.060.05 0.05 0.05 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 0.06 0.06 0.06

0.03 South Africa 0.000.000.000.000.060.03 0.03 0.03 2.19 1.83 1.83 1.83 0.06 0.06 0.06

Other Europe

0.07 Norway 0.000.000.000.000.240.07 0.07 0.07 3.10 3.42 3.42 3.42 0.21 0.24 0.24

0.03 Serbia 0.000.000.000.000.070.03 0.03 0.03 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 0.07 0.07 0.07

0.01 Albania 0.000.000.000.000.030.01 0.01 0.01 2.15 2.08 2.08 2.08 0.03 0.03 0.03

0.01 Bosnia and Herzegovina 11.110.000.000.000.030.01 0.01 0.01 2.80 2.70 2.73 2.73 0.03 0.03 0.03

0.09Turkey 0.000.000.000.000.210.09 0.09 0.09 2.33 2.33 2.33 2.33 0.21 0.21 0.21

0.05Mexico 0.000.000.000.000.090.05 0.05 0.05 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 0.09 0.09 0.09

0.01Others -3.850.000.000.000.030.01 0.01 0.01 1.79 1.86 1.79 1.79 0.03 0.03 0.03



Table 07 Rye Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Dec Dec

Prel.

2014/15 Jan

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

5.45World -17.60-2.56-9.10-1.2011.994.99 4.72 4.17 2.89 2.91 2.79 2.87 15.74 14.55 13.19

0.11United States 59.560.110.000.000.290.10 0.15 0.15 1.72 1.76 2.00 2.00 0.19 0.18 0.29

5.33Total Foreign -18.59-2.67-9.30-1.2011.704.89 4.58 4.03 2.92 2.94 2.82 2.91 15.55 14.37 12.90

none

2.58European Union -13.52-1.200.000.007.662.11 1.91 1.91 3.94 4.19 4.00 4.00 10.15 8.86 7.66


1.78 Russia -35.96-1.18-36.36-1.202.101.85 1.80 1.25 1.89 1.77 1.83 1.68 3.36 3.28 3.30

0.32 Belarus -15.79-0.150.000.000.800.34 0.33 0.33 2.01 2.79 2.46 2.46 0.65 0.95 0.80

0.28 Ukraine -21.05-0.100.000.000.380.19 0.15 0.15 2.29 2.57 2.50 2.50 0.64 0.48 0.38

0.04 Kazakhstan -18.03-0.010.000.000.050.04 0.04 0.04 1.10 1.42 1.25 1.25 0.04 0.06 0.05

0.14Turkey 0.000.000.000.000.350.14 0.14 0.14 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.35 0.35 0.35

0.09Canada 3.210.010.000.000.230.09 0.10 0.10 2.56 2.48 2.37 2.37 0.22 0.22 0.23

South America

0.00 Chile 0.000.000.000.000.010.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 0.00 0.01 0.01

0.04 Argentina -42.27-0.040.000.000.060.05 0.04 0.04 1.49 1.90 1.56 1.56 0.05 0.10 0.06

Other Europe

0.00 Bosnia and Herzegovina -11.110.000.000.000.010.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 2.25 2.67 2.67 0.01 0.01 0.01

0.00 Switzerland 0.000.000.000.000.010.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 0.01 0.01 0.01

0.00 Serbia 0.000.000.000.000.010.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.01 0.01 0.01

0.04Australia 10.000.000.000.000.020.04 0.04 0.04 0.57 0.57 0.61 0.61 0.02 0.02 0.02

0.03Others 0.000.000.000.000.030.03 0.03 0.03 0.90 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.03 0.03 0.03



Table 08 Sorghum Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Dec Dec

Prel.

2014/15 Jan

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

38.98World 7.384.690.320.2268.1842.85 43.22 43.25 1.57 1.48 1.57 1.58 61.26 63.49 67.96

2.67United States 37.954.170.500.0815.162.59 3.09 3.18 3.74 4.24 4.87 4.77 9.97 10.99 15.08

36.32Total Foreign 0.980.520.270.1553.0240.26 40.12 40.07 1.41 1.30 1.32 1.32 51.29 52.50 52.87

none

Africa

5.00 Nigeria -8.21-0.550.000.006.155.50 5.30 5.30 1.32 1.22 1.16 1.16 6.59 6.70 6.15

1.82 Ethiopia -5.00-0.200.000.003.801.80 1.80 1.80 2.26 2.22 2.11 2.11 4.11 4.00 3.80

4.36 Sudan -12.43-0.780.000.005.508.63 8.00 8.00 0.52 0.73 0.69 0.69 2.25 6.28 5.50

1.80 Burkina 3.490.060.000.001.901.80 1.80 1.80 1.04 1.02 1.06 1.06 1.88 1.84 1.90

0.94 Mali 0.000.000.000.001.301.00 1.00 1.00 0.87 1.30 1.30 1.30 0.82 1.30 1.30

3.10 Niger 10.000.100.000.001.103.00 3.00 3.00 0.42 0.33 0.37 0.37 1.29 1.00 1.10

0.80 Cameroon 0.000.000.000.001.150.80 0.80 0.80 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.15 1.15 1.15

0.71 Tanzania 0.000.000.000.000.840.90 0.90 0.90 1.17 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.83 0.84 0.84

0.14 Egypt 0.000.000.000.000.750.14 0.14 0.14 5.31 5.36 5.36 5.36 0.75 0.75 0.75

0.35 Uganda 6.670.020.000.000.320.35 0.35 0.35 0.85 0.86 0.91 0.91 0.30 0.30 0.32

0.23 Ghana 2.390.010.000.000.300.25 0.25 0.25 1.11 1.17 1.20 1.20 0.25 0.29 0.30

0.63 Mozambique 44.440.100.000.000.330.62 0.62 0.62 0.30 0.36 0.52 0.52 0.19 0.23 0.33

0.08 South Africa 15.380.02-37.21-0.080.140.07 0.08 0.06 3.35 1.65 2.87 2.25 0.27 0.12 0.22

2.07Mexico 14.040.880.000.007.151.72 1.80 1.80 4.10 3.66 3.97 3.97 8.50 6.27 7.15

South America

1.00 Argentina 11.430.400.000.003.900.77 0.87 0.87 4.40 4.55 4.48 4.48 4.40 3.50 3.90

0.73 Brazil 0.000.000.000.002.000.73 0.73 0.73 2.59 2.74 2.74 2.74 1.89 2.00 2.00

South Asia

5.79 India 8.910.450.000.005.505.50 6.00 6.00 0.96 0.92 0.92 0.92 5.54 5.05 5.50

0.20 Pakistan 40.780.040.000.000.150.17 0.24 0.24 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.12 0.10 0.15

0.58China 0.520.0211.540.302.900.62 0.61 0.61 4.97 4.66 4.26 4.75 2.89 2.89 2.60

0.53Australia 4.560.100.000.002.200.65 0.70 0.70 2.41 3.23 3.14 3.14 1.28 2.10 2.20

0.14European Union -9.43-0.080.000.000.800.15 0.15 0.15 5.21 6.03 5.50 5.50 0.70 0.88 0.80

5.33Others -1.28-0.06-1.52-0.084.865.10 4.99 4.95 0.99 0.96 0.99 0.98 5.29 4.92 4.93




Table 09 Rice Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Dec Dec

Prel.

2014/15 Jan

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

161.73World -1.70-8.130.170.80470.12160.01 158.78 158.93 4.41 4.46 4.41 4.41 478.54 478.25 469.32

1.00United States -14.06-1.000.830.056.111.19 1.04 1.04 8.62 8.49 8.32 8.37 6.12 7.11 6.06

160.74Total Foreign -1.51-7.130.160.75464.01158.82 157.74 157.89 4.39 4.43 4.38 4.38 472.42 471.15 463.26

none

East Asia

30.31 China 0.841.210.190.27145.7730.31 30.35 30.21 6.72 6.81 6.85 6.89 142.53 144.56 145.50

1.62 Japan 0.740.060.000.007.901.61 1.61 1.61 6.73 6.70 6.74 6.74 7.94 7.84 7.90

0.83 Korea, South 2.030.090.000.004.330.82 0.80 0.80 6.76 6.91 7.22 7.22 4.23 4.24 4.33

0.57 Korea, North -5.88-0.100.000.001.600.57 0.53 0.53 5.07 4.63 4.69 4.69 1.88 1.70 1.60

South Asia

44.14 India -4.58-4.800.000.00100.0043.00 43.00 43.00 3.62 3.66 3.49 3.49 106.65 104.80 100.00

11.75 Bangladesh 0.290.100.000.0034.6011.79 12.00 12.00 4.39 4.39 4.33 4.33 34.39 34.50 34.60

2.79 Pakistan -1.50-0.110.000.006.902.89 2.85 2.85 3.66 3.64 3.63 3.63 6.80 7.01 6.90

1.50 Nepal 0.000.000.000.003.101.56 1.56 1.56 3.37 2.98 2.98 2.98 3.36 3.10 3.10

1.15 Sri Lanka 15.790.450.000.003.301.15 1.23 1.23 3.63 3.64 3.96 3.96 2.84 2.85 3.30

Southeast Asia

12.10 Indonesia 2.080.740.000.0036.3011.83 12.16 12.16 4.72 4.73 4.70 4.70 36.30 35.56 36.30

7.79 Vietnam -0.12-0.040.000.0028.207.79 7.66 7.66 5.79 5.80 5.89 5.89 28.16 28.24 28.20

10.92 Thailand -12.53-2.350.000.0016.4010.27 9.65 9.65 2.84 2.77 2.57 2.57 20.46 18.75 16.40

7.05 Burma -3.17-0.400.000.0012.207.03 6.80 6.80 2.65 2.80 2.80 2.80 11.96 12.60 12.20

4.80 Philippines -3.48-0.422.220.2511.504.71 4.35 4.65 3.92 4.02 4.11 3.93 11.86 11.92 11.25

2.97 Cambodia -7.45-0.350.000.004.353.03 2.90 2.90 2.49 2.43 2.34 2.34 4.73 4.70 4.35

0.89 Laos -6.67-0.130.000.001.750.96 0.93 0.93 2.94 3.11 3.00 3.00 1.65 1.88 1.75

0.69 Malaysia 0.560.010.000.001.810.69 0.69 0.69 3.91 4.02 4.04 4.04 1.76 1.80 1.81

South America

2.40 Brazil -5.49-0.470.000.008.002.30 2.30 2.30 5.09 5.42 5.12 5.12 8.30 8.47 8.00

0.41 Peru 7.650.150.000.002.150.38 0.40 0.40 7.72 7.73 7.80 7.80 2.16 2.00 2.15

Africa

0.77 Egypt -11.70-0.530.000.004.000.65 0.80 0.80 8.94 10.10 7.25 7.25 4.75 4.53 4.00

1.30 Madagascar -6.99-0.180.000.002.371.45 1.45 1.45 2.78 2.74 2.55 2.55 2.31 2.55 2.37

2.50 Nigeria -4.44-0.130.000.002.712.70 2.40 2.40 1.76 1.67 1.79 1.79 2.77 2.84 2.71

0.43European Union 5.420.103.890.082.010.43 0.42 0.43 6.45 6.43 6.58 6.73 1.94 1.90 1.93

0.59Iran 3.850.070.000.001.780.60 0.63 0.63 4.24 4.33 4.32 4.32 1.65 1.72 1.78

10.47Others -0.62-0.130.750.1620.9910.34 10.29 10.27 3.05 3.10 3.08 3.11 21.07 21.12 20.83

Yield is on a rough basis, before the milling process. Production is on a milled basis, after the milling process.



Table 10 Total Oilseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Dec Dec

Prel.

2014/15 Jan

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

--World Total -1.79-9.61-0.38-2.02526.93-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 505.15 536.54 528.96

--Total Foreign -2.32-9.75-0.13-0.52410.76-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 406.13 420.51 411.29

--Oilseed, Copra 1.360.070.000.005.51-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 5.43 5.43 5.51

--Oilseed, Palm Kernel 1.270.210.150.0216.52-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 15.77 16.31 16.49

none

230.71Major OilSeeds -1.92-9.89-0.40-2.05504.91234.40 232.29 231.56 2.10 2.20 2.18 2.18 483.96 514.80 506.96

35.44United States 0.120.14-1.27-1.50116.1738.98 38.71 38.45 2.79 2.98 3.04 3.02 99.02 116.03 117.67

none

195.27Foreign Oilseeds -2.52-10.03-0.14-0.55388.74195.41 193.58 193.11 1.97 2.04 2.01 2.01 384.94 398.77 389.28

59.15South America -0.09-0.16-0.11-0.20179.8361.57 63.01 62.91 2.73 2.92 2.86 0.00 161.51 179.99 180.03

31.47 Brazil 3.663.620.000.00102.7133.35 34.46 34.46 2.86 2.97 2.98 0.00 89.92 99.09 102.71

21.64 Argentina -7.58-5.01-0.33-0.2061.1122.05 22.21 22.11 2.63 3.00 2.76 0.00 56.92 66.12 61.31

3.36 Paraguay 8.650.710.000.008.973.35 3.52 3.52 2.47 2.46 2.55 0.00 8.32 8.26 8.97

1.18 Bolivia 16.780.500.000.003.451.28 1.50 1.50 2.26 2.30 2.30 0.00 2.67 2.95 3.45

1.34 Uruguay 0.440.010.000.003.171.36 1.16 1.16 2.49 2.31 2.73 0.00 3.34 3.15 3.17

24.69China -5.59-3.220.540.2954.4324.34 22.77 22.87 2.38 2.37 2.38 0.00 58.64 57.65 54.14

40.82South Asia -8.82-3.37-1.69-0.6034.8339.09 37.98 37.98 1.00 0.98 0.93 0.00 40.93 38.20 35.43

37.18 India -5.51-1.81-0.64-0.2031.0235.36 34.45 34.45 0.97 0.93 0.91 0.00 36.07 32.83 31.22

3.37 Pakistan -30.55-1.56-10.13-0.403.553.46 3.26 3.26 1.36 1.48 1.21 0.00 4.59 5.11 3.95

12.17European Union -10.45-3.730.790.2531.9811.96 11.73 11.77 2.63 2.99 2.71 0.00 32.05 35.72 31.73

20.76Former Soviet Union - 12 -0.25-0.090.850.2933.6621.22 20.74 20.59 1.68 1.59 1.61 0.00 34.89 33.75 33.38

9.11 Russia 4.900.642.440.3313.639.34 9.38 9.28 1.49 1.39 1.42 0.00 13.58 12.99 13.30

7.65 Ukraine 1.230.200.000.0016.507.98 7.88 7.88 2.19 2.04 2.10 0.00 16.73 16.30 16.50

1.30 Uzbekistan -5.10-0.080.000.001.451.29 1.29 1.29 1.24 1.19 1.13 0.00 1.61 1.53 1.45

10.05Canada 4.420.990.000.0023.5110.61 10.34 10.34 2.38 2.12 2.27 0.00 23.96 22.51 23.51

18.31Africa 2.960.47-3.40-0.5716.2517.55 18.35 17.99 0.91 0.90 0.92 0.00 16.66 15.79 16.82

3.44 Nigeria 0.590.020.000.003.763.37 3.39 3.39 1.10 1.11 1.11 0.00 3.76 3.74 3.76

1.17 South Africa -14.22-0.26-23.37-0.481.571.34 1.38 1.10 1.63 1.37 1.49 0.00 1.90 1.84 2.05

1.29 Tanzania -1.92-0.020.000.000.921.24 1.24 1.24 0.82 0.75 0.74 0.00 1.07 0.94 0.92

3.46Southeast Asia -0.87-0.040.000.004.923.41 3.37 3.37 1.41 1.45 1.46 0.00 4.89 4.96 4.92

1.11 Indonesia -1.85-0.030.000.001.751.10 1.07 1.07 1.64 1.63 1.64 0.00 1.82 1.79 1.75

1.92 Burma -0.84-0.020.000.002.381.89 1.88 1.88 1.20 1.27 1.27 0.00 2.31 2.40 2.38

3.21Australia -7.23-0.310.000.003.952.97 2.75 2.75 1.80 1.44 1.44 0.00 5.78 4.26 3.95

1.13Turkey -16.23-0.420.000.002.151.07 0.96 0.96 2.20 2.40 2.25 0.00 2.49 2.57 2.15

1.54Others -4.41-0.150.000.003.231.62 1.57 1.57 2.04 2.09 2.06 2.06 3.15 3.38 3.23

World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and

rapeseed)


Table 11 Soybean Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Dec Dec

Prel.

2014/15 Jan

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

113.03World 0.060.21-0.34-1.10319.01118.65 121.00 120.81 2.50 2.69 2.65 2.64 282.87 318.80 320.11

30.86United States 0.070.08-1.29-1.40106.9533.42 33.36 33.12 2.96 3.20 3.25 3.23 91.39 106.88 108.35

82.17Total Foreign 0.060.130.140.30212.0585.22 87.64 87.68 2.33 2.49 2.42 2.42 191.48 211.92 211.75

none

South America

30.10 Brazil 3.953.800.000.00100.0032.10 33.30 33.30 2.88 3.00 3.00 3.00 86.70 96.20 100.00

19.40 Argentina -7.17-4.400.000.0057.0019.79 20.00 20.00 2.76 3.10 2.85 2.85 53.50 61.40 57.00

3.26 Paraguay 8.640.700.000.008.803.24 3.40 3.40 2.52 2.50 2.59 2.59 8.19 8.10 8.80

1.00 Bolivia 16.980.450.000.003.101.08 1.28 1.28 2.40 2.45 2.42 2.42 2.40 2.65 3.10

1.31 Uruguay 0.030.000.000.003.111.33 1.12 1.12 2.52 2.33 2.78 2.78 3.30 3.11 3.11

East Asia

6.79 China -1.23-0.154.350.5012.006.80 6.40 6.55 1.76 1.79 1.80 1.83 11.95 12.15 11.50

0.08 Korea, South -13.67-0.020.000.000.120.08 0.07 0.07 1.93 1.85 1.71 1.71 0.15 0.14 0.12

0.12 Korea, North -9.09-0.020.000.000.150.12 0.11 0.11 1.41 1.40 1.36 1.36 0.16 0.17 0.15

0.13 Japan -2.65-0.010.000.000.220.13 0.13 0.13 1.55 1.71 1.69 1.69 0.20 0.23 0.22

12.20India -8.05-0.700.000.008.0010.91 11.65 11.65 0.78 0.80 0.69 0.69 9.50 8.70 8.00

1.86Canada 3.070.190.000.006.242.24 2.20 2.20 2.88 2.71 2.83 2.83 5.36 6.05 6.24


1.20 Russia 9.830.261.790.052.851.91 2.00 2.03 1.36 1.36 1.40 1.40 1.64 2.60 2.80

1.35 Ukraine -2.56-0.100.000.003.801.80 2.10 2.10 2.05 2.17 1.81 1.81 2.77 3.90 3.80

0.47European Union 13.260.240.000.002.050.57 0.73 0.73 2.57 3.16 2.80 2.80 1.21 1.81 2.05

Southeast Asia

0.45 Indonesia -1.59-0.010.000.000.620.46 0.45 0.45 1.44 1.37 1.38 1.38 0.65 0.63 0.62

0.11 Vietnam 0.570.000.000.000.180.12 0.12 0.12 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.46 0.16 0.17 0.18

0.04 Thailand -5.660.000.000.000.050.03 0.03 0.03 1.60 1.71 1.67 1.67 0.06 0.05 0.05

0.17 Burma 0.000.000.000.000.200.17 0.17 0.17 1.23 1.21 1.21 1.21 0.21 0.20 0.20

0.18Mexico 1.410.010.000.000.360.19 0.20 0.20 1.35 1.84 1.85 1.85 0.24 0.36 0.36

0.08Iran 0.000.000.000.000.200.08 0.08 0.08 2.45 2.44 2.44 2.44 0.19 0.20 0.20

Africa

0.50 South Africa -16.04-0.17-21.93-0.250.890.69 0.70 0.56 1.88 1.54 1.63 1.59 0.95 1.06 1.14

0.65 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.000.650.65 0.65 0.65 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.65 0.65 0.65

0.11 Zambia 0.000.000.000.000.210.11 0.11 0.11 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 0.21 0.21 0.21

0.16 Uganda 0.000.000.000.000.190.16 0.16 0.16 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 0.19 0.19 0.19

Middle East

0.08 Iran 0.000.000.000.000.200.08 0.08 0.08 2.45 2.44 2.44 2.44 0.19 0.20 0.20

0.04 Turkey -33.33-0.050.000.000.090.04 0.03 0.03 3.71 3.86 3.60 3.60 0.13 0.14 0.09

0.34Others 16.350.110.000.000.790.36 0.38 0.38 1.82 1.91 2.08 2.08 0.62 0.68 0.79



Table 12 Cottonseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Dec Dec

Prel.

2014/15 Jan

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

31.90World -14.54-6.45-2.49-0.9737.9033.01 30.31 30.09 1.43 1.34 1.28 1.26 45.68 44.35 38.87

3.05United States -18.95-0.88-0.71-0.033.773.78 3.30 3.27 1.25 1.23 1.15 1.15 3.81 4.65 3.80

28.84Total Foreign -14.03-5.57-2.69-0.9434.1329.23 27.01 26.82 1.45 1.36 1.30 1.27 41.87 39.70 35.07

none

South Asia

11.70 India -4.80-0.60-1.65-0.2011.9012.70 11.80 11.80 1.11 0.98 1.03 1.01 12.95 12.50 12.10

2.90 Pakistan -32.61-1.50-11.43-0.403.102.95 2.80 2.80 1.41 1.56 1.25 1.11 4.10 4.60 3.50

4.80China -20.64-2.43-2.20-0.219.334.40 3.45 3.40 2.67 2.67 2.77 2.74 12.84 11.76 9.54


1.30 Uzbekistan -5.10-0.080.000.001.451.29 1.29 1.29 1.24 1.19 1.13 1.13 1.61 1.53 1.45

0.58 Turkmenistan -14.88-0.09-7.29-0.040.510.55 0.55 0.50 1.06 1.10 1.00 1.02 0.61 0.60 0.55

0.19 Tajikistan -16.56-0.030.000.000.130.18 0.15 0.15 0.92 0.90 0.87 0.87 0.18 0.16 0.13

0.14 Kazakhstan -15.96-0.020.000.000.080.13 0.10 0.10 0.96 0.73 0.80 0.80 0.13 0.09 0.08

South America

1.12 Brazil -6.78-0.160.000.002.201.02 0.93 0.93 2.38 2.31 2.38 2.38 2.67 2.36 2.20

0.56 Argentina -9.33-0.040.000.000.340.48 0.45 0.45 0.75 0.78 0.76 0.76 0.42 0.38 0.34

Middle East

0.33 Turkey -17.18-0.180.000.000.850.43 0.37 0.37 2.24 2.40 2.31 2.31 0.74 1.03 0.85

0.11 Syria -7.22-0.010.000.000.090.06 0.05 0.05 2.51 1.62 1.80 1.80 0.28 0.10 0.09

0.10 Iran 2.080.000.000.000.100.11 0.11 0.11 0.90 0.87 0.89 0.89 0.09 0.10 0.10

0.44Australia 4.080.030.000.000.740.21 0.29 0.29 4.31 3.47 2.60 2.60 1.88 0.71 0.74

0.31European Union -26.77-0.140.000.000.380.36 0.32 0.32 1.54 1.47 1.22 1.22 0.48 0.52 0.38

Africa

0.65 Burkina -10.99-0.040.000.000.330.66 0.63 0.63 0.53 0.57 0.53 0.53 0.35 0.37 0.33

0.45 Mali 2.640.010.000.000.310.54 0.58 0.58 0.54 0.56 0.54 0.54 0.24 0.30 0.31

0.22 Cameroon -3.02-0.010.000.000.260.23 0.22 0.22 1.14 1.15 1.17 1.17 0.25 0.27 0.26

0.45 Cote d'Ivoire 0.000.000.000.000.230.41 0.44 0.44 0.47 0.55 0.52 0.52 0.21 0.23 0.23

0.35 Benin -13.81-0.030.000.000.210.35 0.33 0.33 0.54 0.68 0.62 0.62 0.19 0.24 0.21

0.35 Tanzania -13.24-0.020.000.000.120.40 0.40 0.40 0.47 0.34 0.30 0.30 0.17 0.14 0.12

0.13 Egypt -35.00-0.060.000.000.100.16 0.10 0.10 1.02 1.02 1.04 1.04 0.13 0.16 0.10

0.29 Nigeria 25.580.020.000.000.110.22 0.24 0.24 0.40 0.40 0.45 0.45 0.11 0.09 0.11

0.05 Uganda 0.000.00-30.69-0.030.070.06 0.06 0.06 1.22 1.27 1.68 1.27 0.06 0.07 0.10

0.26 Zimbabwe 20.630.010.000.000.080.18 0.18 0.18 0.39 0.35 0.42 0.42 0.10 0.06 0.08

0.06 Sudan -37.96-0.04-34.95-0.040.070.09 0.11 0.05 1.34 1.20 0.94 1.34 0.08 0.11 0.10

0.12Mexico -30.39-0.140.000.000.320.18 0.13 0.13 2.58 2.56 2.48 2.48 0.32 0.46 0.32

0.30Burma -5.41-0.020.000.000.350.30 0.29 0.29 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 0.37 0.37 0.35

0.61Others -7.43-0.03-6.27-0.030.370.62 0.67 0.65 0.54 0.65 0.59 0.58 0.33 0.40 0.40



Table 13 Peanut Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Dec Dec

Prel.

2014/15 Jan

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

25.41World 3.481.37-0.03-0.0140.7823.65 24.40 24.38 1.62 1.67 1.67 1.67 41.12 39.41 40.79

0.42United States 19.750.470.680.022.820.54 0.64 0.64 4.49 4.40 4.40 4.44 1.89 2.35 2.80

24.99Total Foreign 2.440.91-0.08-0.0337.9623.12 23.76 23.75 1.57 1.60 1.60 1.60 39.22 37.06 37.99

none

4.63China 1.320.220.000.0016.704.60 4.60 4.60 3.66 3.58 3.63 3.63 16.97 16.48 16.70

Africa

2.50 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.003.002.50 2.50 2.50 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 3.00 3.00 3.00

2.16 Sudan 94.290.910.000.001.871.25 2.18 2.18 0.82 0.77 0.86 0.86 1.77 0.96 1.87

0.92 Senegal 8.370.060.000.000.730.88 0.77 0.77 0.74 0.76 0.94 0.94 0.68 0.67 0.73

0.46 Cameroon -14.06-0.090.000.000.550.47 0.40 0.40 1.37 1.36 1.38 1.38 0.64 0.64 0.55

0.33 Ghana 0.000.000.000.000.440.40 0.40 0.40 1.24 1.10 1.10 1.10 0.41 0.44 0.44

0.50 Chad 0.000.000.000.000.400.50 0.50 0.50 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.40 0.40 0.40

0.36 Malawi 0.000.000.000.000.380.37 0.37 0.37 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.03 0.38 0.38 0.38

0.48 Congo (Kinshasa) 0.000.000.000.000.370.48 0.48 0.48 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.37 0.37 0.37

0.78 Niger 0.000.000.000.000.350.74 0.74 0.74 0.44 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.34 0.35 0.35

0.37 Mali 0.000.000.000.000.330.38 0.38 0.38 1.38 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.52 0.33 0.33

0.42 Uganda 0.000.000.000.000.300.43 0.43 0.43 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.30 0.30 0.30

0.45 Burkina 0.000.000.000.000.350.45 0.45 0.45 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.35 0.35 0.35

0.21 Guinea 0.000.000.000.000.260.21 0.21 0.21 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 0.26 0.26 0.26

0.06 Egypt 0.500.000.000.000.200.06 0.06 0.06 3.16 3.16 3.33 3.33 0.20 0.20 0.20

0.10 Central African Republic 0.000.000.000.000.150.10 0.10 0.10 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.15 0.15 0.15

0.05 South Africa -26.67-0.02-35.29-0.030.060.06 0.05 0.04 1.90 1.29 1.89 1.57 0.10 0.08 0.09

0.29 Mozambique 0.000.000.000.000.110.29 0.29 0.29 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.11 0.11 0.11

0.08 Cote d'Ivoire 0.000.000.000.000.090.08 0.08 0.08 1.19 1.13 1.13 1.13 0.10 0.09 0.09

0.15 Benin 0.000.000.000.000.140.16 0.16 0.16 0.87 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.13 0.14 0.14

South Asia

5.40 India -4.08-0.200.000.004.704.60 4.50 4.50 1.05 1.07 1.04 1.04 5.65 4.90 4.70

0.09 Pakistan 11.760.010.000.000.100.10 0.11 0.11 1.07 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.10 0.09 0.10

Southeast Asia

0.66 Indonesia -1.74-0.020.000.001.130.63 0.62 0.62 1.77 1.83 1.84 1.84 1.16 1.15 1.13

0.89 Burma 0.000.000.000.001.380.89 0.89 0.89 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.38 1.38 1.38

0.21 Vietnam 2.540.010.000.000.490.22 0.22 0.22 2.18 2.20 2.20 2.20 0.46 0.47 0.49

0.03 Thailand 0.000.000.000.000.050.03 0.03 0.03 1.47 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.05 0.05 0.05

South America

0.38 Argentina -1.52-0.020.000.001.170.34 0.36 0.36 2.64 3.48 3.25 3.25 1.00 1.19 1.17

0.11 Brazil -4.62-0.020.000.000.330.11 0.11 0.11 3.00 3.15 3.00 3.00 0.32 0.35 0.33

0.06Mexico 3.960.000.000.000.110.06 0.06 0.06 1.75 1.74 1.75 1.75 0.10 0.10 0.11

1.86Others 3.580.060.000.001.771.76 1.75 1.75 1.00 0.97 1.01 1.01 1.86 1.71 1.77



Table 14 Sunflowerseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Dec Dec

Prel.

2014/15 Jan

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

24.14World -1.53-0.61-0.36-0.1439.5123.17 22.87 22.50 1.75 1.73 1.73 1.76 42.33 40.12 39.65

0.59United States 31.680.320.530.011.330.61 0.72 0.73 1.55 1.65 1.83 1.82 0.92 1.01 1.32

23.54Total Foreign -2.38-0.93-0.39-0.1538.1822.56 22.15 21.78 1.76 1.73 1.73 1.75 41.42 39.11 38.33

none


6.80 Russia 8.070.722.660.259.656.37 6.50 6.35 1.55 1.40 1.45 1.52 10.55 8.93 9.40

5.30 Ukraine 7.840.800.000.0011.005.30 5.10 5.10 2.19 1.92 2.16 2.16 11.60 10.20 11.00

0.82 Kazakhstan -12.28-0.060.000.000.450.77 0.68 0.68 0.70 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.57 0.51 0.45

4.62European Union -13.23-1.180.000.007.754.28 4.15 4.15 1.96 2.09 1.87 1.87 9.05 8.93 7.75

South America

1.30 Argentina -17.72-0.56-7.14-0.202.601.44 1.40 1.30 1.54 2.19 2.00 2.00 2.00 3.16 2.80

0.03 Uruguay 29.550.010.000.000.060.03 0.04 0.04 1.40 1.47 1.50 1.50 0.04 0.04 0.06

0.18 Bolivia 15.000.050.000.000.350.20 0.22 0.22 1.50 1.50 1.60 1.60 0.27 0.30 0.35

0.15 Brazil 0.000.000.000.000.180.12 0.12 0.12 1.59 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.23 0.18 0.18

0.04 Paraguay 8.570.010.000.000.110.06 0.07 0.07 1.51 1.69 1.75 1.75 0.06 0.11 0.11

0.93China -7.70-0.190.000.002.300.95 0.92 0.92 2.61 2.63 2.50 2.50 2.42 2.49 2.30

South Asia

0.75 India 0.000.000.000.000.420.55 0.50 0.50 0.89 0.76 0.84 0.84 0.67 0.42 0.42

0.16 Pakistan -5.00-0.010.000.000.190.16 0.15 0.15 1.25 1.25 1.27 1.27 0.20 0.20 0.19

Middle East

0.69 Turkey -16.67-0.200.000.001.000.53 0.49 0.49 2.03 2.26 2.04 2.04 1.40 1.20 1.00

0.07 Iran 0.000.000.000.000.090.07 0.07 0.07 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 0.09 0.09 0.09

0.01 Israel 0.000.000.000.000.020.01 0.01 0.01 1.20 1.60 1.60 1.60 0.01 0.02 0.02

Africa

0.01 Egypt 0.000.000.000.000.020.01 0.01 0.01 2.67 2.43 2.43 2.43 0.02 0.02 0.02

0.02 Morocco 0.000.000.000.000.020.02 0.02 0.02 1.12 1.25 1.25 1.25 0.02 0.02 0.02

0.60 South Africa -9.23-0.06-25.00-0.200.600.58 0.62 0.49 1.39 1.15 1.30 1.22 0.83 0.66 0.80

0.57Burma 0.000.000.000.000.450.54 0.54 0.54 0.63 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.36 0.45 0.45

0.03Canada 32.730.020.000.000.070.03 0.04 0.04 1.86 1.90 1.92 1.92 0.05 0.06 0.07

0.02Australia 57.890.010.000.000.030.02 0.03 0.03 1.06 1.19 1.20 1.20 0.02 0.02 0.03

0.47Others -25.20-0.280.000.000.830.53 0.51 0.51 2.01 2.08 1.63 1.63 0.95 1.11 0.83



Table 15 Rapeseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Dec Dec

Prel.

2014/15 Jan

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

36.24World -6.11-4.410.260.1867.7235.91 33.72 33.78 1.99 2.01 2.00 2.00 71.96 72.12 67.54

0.51United States 14.370.16-6.99-0.101.310.63 0.70 0.70 1.96 1.81 2.01 1.88 1.00 1.14 1.40

35.72Total Foreign -6.44-4.570.420.2866.4135.28 33.02 33.08 1.99 2.01 2.00 2.01 70.95 70.98 66.14

none

6.77European Union -10.84-2.651.160.2521.806.76 6.54 6.58 3.15 3.62 3.30 3.32 21.30 24.45 21.55

8.16Canada 4.810.790.000.0017.208.34 8.10 8.10 2.27 1.97 2.12 2.12 18.55 16.41 17.20

7.53China -4.55-0.670.000.0014.107.59 7.40 7.40 1.92 1.95 1.91 1.91 14.46 14.77 14.10

South Asia

7.13 India -4.91-0.310.000.006.006.60 6.00 6.00 1.02 0.96 1.00 1.00 7.30 6.31 6.00

0.21 Pakistan -27.27-0.060.000.000.160.25 0.20 0.20 0.90 0.88 0.80 0.80 0.19 0.22 0.16

0.25 Bangladesh 0.000.000.000.000.230.25 0.25 0.25 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.23 0.23 0.23


1.11 Russia -23.16-0.342.270.031.131.06 0.88 0.90 1.26 1.38 1.26 1.25 1.39 1.46 1.10

1.00 Ukraine -22.73-0.500.000.001.700.88 0.68 0.68 2.36 2.50 2.52 2.52 2.35 2.20 1.70

0.40 Belarus -58.90-0.430.000.000.300.40 0.17 0.17 1.68 1.82 1.82 1.82 0.68 0.73 0.30

0.25 Kazakhstan -6.64-0.020.000.000.230.24 0.23 0.23 0.95 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.24 0.24 0.23

2.72Australia -10.51-0.360.000.003.102.71 2.40 2.40 1.41 1.28 1.29 1.29 3.83 3.46 3.10

South America

0.04 Chile -0.500.000.000.000.200.05 0.05 0.05 3.68 4.10 4.00 4.00 0.14 0.20 0.20

0.05 Paraguay 12.200.010.000.000.050.03 0.04 0.04 1.15 1.28 1.31 1.31 0.05 0.04 0.05

0.02Switzerland 0.000.000.000.000.070.02 0.02 0.02 3.32 3.14 3.14 3.14 0.07 0.07 0.07

0.05Ethiopia 3.900.000.000.000.080.05 0.05 0.05 1.45 1.60 1.60 1.60 0.07 0.08 0.08

0.04Others -25.00-0.030.000.000.080.05 0.04 0.04 2.26 2.13 2.08 2.08 0.10 0.10 0.08



Table 16 Copra, Palm Kernel, and Palm Oil Production

Country / Region

Production


2013/14

Prel.

2014/15

2015/16 Proj.

Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent



Oilseed, Copra

0.00 0.00 0.07 3.14 Philippines 2.28 2.302.302.23

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Indonesia 1.58 1.601.601.60

0.00 0.00 0.01 1.41 India 0.71 0.720.720.71

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Vietnam 0.24 0.240.240.24

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mexico 0.20 0.210.210.21

0.00 0.00 -0.01 -10.00 Papua New Guinea 0.08 0.090.090.10

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Thailand 0.07 0.070.070.07

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sri Lanka 0.07 0.070.070.07

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Solomon Islands 0.03 0.030.030.03

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cote d'Ivoire 0.03 0.030.030.03

0.00 0.00 0.08 1.47 World 5.43 5.515.515.43

Oilseed, Palm Kernel

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Indonesia 8.10 8.708.708.70

0.00 0.00 0.10 1.98 Malaysia 5.10 5.155.155.05

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Nigeria 0.73 0.730.730.73

0.00 0.00 0.08 22.22 Thailand 0.40 0.440.440.36

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Colombia 0.23 0.250.250.24

0.02 15.38 0.00 0.00 Papua New Guinea 0.13 0.150.130.15

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cameroon 0.11 0.110.110.11

0.00 0.00 0.01 9.09 Honduras 0.11 0.120.120.11

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Ghana 0.11 0.110.110.11

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Ecuador 0.12 0.100.100.10

0.03 0.18 0.21 1.29 World 15.77 16.5216.4916.31

Oil, Palm

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Indonesia 30.50 33.0033.0033.00

0.00 0.00 0.62 3.12 Malaysia 20.16 20.5020.5019.88

0.00 0.00 0.40 22.22 Thailand 2.00 2.202.201.80

0.00 0.00 0.02 1.80 Colombia 1.04 1.131.131.11

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Nigeria 0.97 0.970.970.97

0.06 11.54 0.06 11.54 Papua New Guinea 0.50 0.580.520.52

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Ghana 0.49 0.500.500.50

0.00 0.00 0.03 6.25 Ecuador 0.57 0.510.510.49

0.00 0.00 0.02 4.26 Honduras 0.46 0.490.490.47

0.01 2.17 0.02 4.44 Guatemala 0.43 0.470.460.45

0.08 0.13 1.25 2.03 World 59.38 62.6862.6161.43



Table 17 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production


MBalesPercent

Yield

(Kilograms per hectare)

Jan 2013/14 MBales

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production

(Million 480 lb. bales)


2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Dec Dec

Prel.

2014/15 Jan

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

32.79World -14.77-17.60-2.08-2.15101.5634.02 31.24 31.02 799 762 723 713 120.41 119.15 103.71

3.05United States -20.69-3.38-0.68-0.0912.943.78 3.30 3.27 921 939 860 862 12.91 16.32 13.03

29.74Total Foreign -13.83-14.22-2.28-2.0788.6130.24 27.94 27.75 787 740 707 695 107.50 102.83 90.68

none

South Asia

11.70 India -5.08-1.50-1.75-0.5028.0012.70 11.80 11.80 577 506 526 517 31.00 29.50 28.50

2.90 Pakistan -32.08-3.40-10.00-0.807.202.95 2.80 2.80 713 782 622 560 9.50 10.60 8.00

4.80China -20.67-6.20-2.06-0.5023.804.40 3.45 3.40 1,486 1,484 1,534 1,524 32.75 30.00 24.30

South America

1.12 Brazil -7.14-0.500.000.006.501.02 0.93 0.93 1,555 1,494 1,530 1,530 8.00 7.00 6.50

0.56 Argentina -9.09-0.100.000.001.000.48 0.45 0.45 474 499 484 484 1.22 1.10 1.00

0.02 Paraguay 9.380.000.000.000.040.02 0.02 0.02 381 348 381 381 0.04 0.03 0.04

Africa

0.65 Burkina -11.11-0.150.000.001.200.66 0.63 0.63 421 445 418 418 1.25 1.35 1.20

0.45 Mali 2.800.030.000.001.100.54 0.58 0.58 411 433 413 413 0.85 1.07 1.10

0.45 Cote d'Ivoire 0.000.000.000.000.860.41 0.44 0.44 382 450 423 423 0.78 0.86 0.86

0.35 Benin -13.79-0.100.000.000.630.35 0.33 0.33 358 451 412 412 0.58 0.73 0.63

0.13 Egypt -35.24-0.190.000.000.340.16 0.10 0.10 729 728 740 740 0.44 0.53 0.34

0.22 Cameroon -2.83-0.020.000.000.520.23 0.22 0.22 495 502 510 510 0.50 0.53 0.52

0.35 Tanzania -13.18-0.040.000.000.270.40 0.40 0.40 235 169 147 147 0.38 0.31 0.27

0.29 Nigeria 25.000.050.000.000.250.22 0.24 0.24 199 203 227 227 0.26 0.20 0.25

0.26 Zimbabwe 8.110.020.000.000.200.18 0.18 0.18 224 224 242 242 0.26 0.19 0.20

0.12 Ethiopia 2.170.000.000.000.190.13 0.13 0.13 308 308 315 315 0.17 0.18 0.19


1.30 Uzbekistan -5.13-0.200.000.003.701.29 1.29 1.29 687 661 627 627 4.10 3.90 3.70

0.58 Turkmenistan -14.75-0.23-7.14-0.101.300.55 0.55 0.50 587 609 554 566 1.55 1.53 1.40

0.19 Tajikistan -16.25-0.070.000.000.340.18 0.15 0.15 516 498 486 486 0.45 0.40 0.34

0.14 Kazakhstan -16.67-0.040.000.000.200.13 0.10 0.10 536 408 440 440 0.34 0.24 0.20

Middle East

0.33 Turkey -17.19-0.550.000.002.650.43 0.37 0.37 1,517 1,620 1,559 1,559 2.30 3.20 2.65

0.10 Syria -8.33-0.030.000.000.280.06 0.05 0.05 1,306 1,089 1,197 1,197 0.60 0.30 0.28

0.12 Iran 0.000.000.000.000.300.11 0.11 0.11 606 594 594 594 0.32 0.30 0.30

0.44Australia 4.350.100.000.002.400.21 0.29 0.29 2,047 2,443 1,833 1,833 4.10 2.30 2.40

0.12Mexico -30.45-0.420.000.000.950.18 0.13 0.13 1,652 1,643 1,591 1,591 0.93 1.37 0.95

0.30Burma -5.03-0.050.000.000.850.30 0.29 0.29 646 650 649 649 0.89 0.90 0.85

1.78Others -15.66-0.66-4.41-0.173.581.98 1.94 1.85 483 467 420 421 3.95 4.24 3.74



TABLE 18 The table below presents a record of the differences between the January projection and the final Estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, the "root mean square error” means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 0.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 1.2 percent. The average difference between the January projection and the final estimate is 3.2 million tons, ranging from 0.0 million to 8.3 million tons. The January projection has been below the estimate 25 times and above 9 times.

RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS 1/

COMMODITY AND REGION

Root mean square error

90 percent confidence

interval

Difference between forecast and final estimate

Average Smallest Largest

Years Below final

Above final

Percent ---Million metric tons---

WHEAT

World 0.7 1.2 3.2 0.0 8.3 25 9

U.S. 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 14 9

Foreign 0.8 1.3 3.2 0.1 8.3 25 9

COARSE GRAINS 2/

World 1.3 2.2 10.3 0.0 26.3 25 9

U.S. 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.6 15 7

Foreign 1.8 3.0 10.1 0.0 26.3 24 10

RICE (Milled)

World 1.7 2.8 4.8 0.0 13.9 28 5

U.S. 1.7 2.9 0.1 0.0 0.3 13 7

Foreign 1.7 2.9 4.8 0.1 13.9 29 5

SOYBEANS

World 3.5 5.9 4.7 0.0 22.4 20 14

U.S. 1.4 2.5 0.7 0.0 2.5 15 14

Foreign 5.9 10.0 4.8 0.2 22.6 20 14

COTTON ---Million 480-lb. bales---

World 2.5 4.3 1.9 0.0 5.4 22 11

U.S. 1.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.3 13 20

Foreign 3.1 5.2 1.9 0.0 5.7 24 9

UNITED STATES -------Million bushels-------

CORN 0.4 0.7 11 0 148 4 2

SORGHUM 1.1 1.8 2 0 53 1 3

BARLEY 0.7 1.2 1 0 11 14 4

OATS 0.3 0.6 0 0 2 4 4

1/ Marketing years 1981/82 through 2014/15. Final for grains, soybeans and cotton is defined as the first January estimate following the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2013/14, and for 2014/15 last month’s estimate. 2/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain

January 2016 Office of Global Analysis, FAS, USDA


world agricultural production

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