Workshop Framework:

Addressing the 3 Questions

Jay Barclay, Quentin Chiotti, Jay Barclay, Quentin Chiotti,

John Shortreed and Stephanie GowerJohn Shortreed and Stephanie Gower

Policy Analysis Tools for Policy Analysis Tools for

Air Quality & Health WorkshopAir Quality & Health WorkshopToronto, May 19, 2005Toronto, May 19, 2005

Workshop Questions

1. What is the public health significance of air pollution?

2. Are the available models and analysis tools adequate to inform policy at some level?

3. What are the key policy questions that should be addressed by models?

Current Ambient Air Quality

Uncertainty

•Air quality

•Health impact

AnalysisCapacity

EconomicImpacts

InternationalConventions

StakeholderParticipation

POLICY ENVIRONMENT

Scientific Evidence on Health Effects

WHO, CAFÉ, USEPA etc. analyses

New Policy Options•regulatory and voluntary

•Local Regional Global

•Fixed sources

•Mobile sources

•Area sources

Policy Analysis•Health Benefits

•Economic Costs

Institutional Capacity

Government Commitment

Health Priorities

AIR QUALITY POLICY•Emission Reduction (local/mobile, fixed/regional)

•Air Quality standards

Cultural/Social conditions

Health Impact and Air Quality

2005 2010 2015

Trends

Policy Impact

Target

Criteria

Local

Regional

Global

Fixed Mobile Area

Source

Apportionment

Basic Elements and Terminology for Policy Development

Global Sources

Transboundary Airshed

Domestic Regional

LocalFixed, Mobile, Area Sources

•At any location, air pollution can be attributed to a combination of many different sources•Different models are required to characterize pollution from different “types” of sources

Areas of Uncertainty

• Key Pollutants• Source Apportionment

– Fixed, mobile or area sources that are either– Local, regional, transboundary airshed, or global

• Trends (emissions, policy impact, targets, climate change impacts)

• Health Effects– Outdoor and Indoor Air Quality, Vulnerable Groups

• Economic and Environmental Impacts

No Justification for Inaction

Workshop Questions … again …

1. Are Health Effects Significant?

2. What Tools are being used – Where, when, how, why and what?

3. And what are we asking them to tell us (and what are we learning)?

Are Health Effects Significant?

Emissions – Pollution – Health Effects Relationships and Policy Interventions

Economic Activity, Fuel/Energy Use

Ambient Air Quality

Health Impacts (e.g. mortality, morbidity)Environmental Effects

Changes in Welfare

Emissions (SOx, NOx, etc.)Economy-Energy Relationship

Economy-Energy-Emissions

Emissions – Ambient Air Quality

Ambient Air Quality – Health/Environment

Policy Interventione.g. promote fuel switching, energy

efficiency, reduced emissions intensity

Policy Interventione.g. voluntary and/or legislated emissions reduction

Policy Interventione.g. AQ advisories

Generic Policy Interventions Checklist (…and examples of issues that might need to be addressed)

Fixed Facilities Mobile Sources Area Sources

Global International Agreements

Regional

Regional Emissions budgets (caps)

Sector emission caps/allowances

Minimum emission limits for new /modified facilities

Alternative energy sources

Regulations setting minimum standards for pollution from vehicle engines and fuels

Market based strategies

Technical strategies

Regulations setting emission limits

Educational strategies

Market based strategies

Air Quality Standards, Emissions Reduction Targets

Local

Siting and Planning

Permitting Systems

Voluntary and/or Legislated Source Emission Reduction

Emission limits through permits

Partnerships and Agreements: Industry Self-Monitoring

Traffic Demand Management

Traffic Management

Vehicle retirement programs

Land use planning/Smart Growth strategies

Alternative fuels in gov’t fleets

Anti-idling bylaws

Improving road infrastructure

Greening, in particular reforestation

Road cleaning and street cleaning

Reduced open burning

Monitoring, Compliance and Enforcement

Community Airshed Studies

Public education and outreach: vehicle inspection and maintenance, energy efficiency/conservation; exposure reduction

Municipal and corporate smog alert response plans

****Note that a more detailed and comprehensive list was prepared for the NERAM 2005 colloquium and is available upon request

Some Challenges for Development of Policy Analysis Tools…

• Predicting how changes in policy may influence individual and corporate behaviour and practices with respect to energy and materials use, particularly fossil fuel combustion

• Considering compliance with regulations

• Considering speed and effectiveness of policy adoption

• Policies on air quality may impact health in unexpected ways

What are the Attributes of Useful Policy Analysis Tools?

• Specific models for specific questions vs. integrated, broadly applicable tools?

• How to deal with the various scales of AQ issues: local, regional, national, interactive?

• Most useful format for output i.e., predicted cases of disease? Economic valuation?

• Accessibility and/or transparency of the model?

What are the Current Gaps in Analysis Capability?

• What kind of questions are current models equipped to address?

• What policy issues are not addressed by currently available tools?

• What are the key policy questions that should be addressed by models/analysis?

Please focus on the policy analysis requirements; Let’s leave the actual policy debate for another day