Working at a global scale: challenges for a worldwide tropical forest monitoring system Gilberto CâmaraGeneral DirectorNational Institute for Space ResearchBrazil

How are Earth’s tropical forests changing, and what are the consequences for human civilization?

A scientific question linked to public policy

Global Change

Where are changes taking place? How much change is happening? Who is being impacted by the change?

“Despite solid improvements by scientists in monitoring deforestation, the uncertainties are still substantial”. (Science, 27 April 2007)

What are the challenges?

Images – covering all of the world’s tropical forests

Methodology – using remote sensing algorithms to extract information

Software – reproducible methodology Capacity building – training large teams

worldwide Field analysis – understanding local forces Socio-economic analysis – understanding

globalization forces

EO data: benefits to everyoneImages: monitoring the planet

in a consistent manner

CBERS-2 image of Manaus

Images show trajectories of land changes

Rondonia, Brazil

19861975

1992

Monitoring Amazon Deforestation

Near real-time detection of newly deforested areas (DETER) Uses MODIS data (250 m resolution, 2 days revisit) Maps produced weekly Supports law-enforcement

Detailed assessment of deforestation (PRODES) Uses LANDSAT (30 m resolution, 18 days revisit)

and CBERS (20 m resolution, 25 days revisit) Other satellite data is used when needed Detailed maps produced yearly Supports policy-making

On-line databases help understandingBR-163: areas greater than 100 ha (2004)

Altamira (Pará) – LANDSAT Image – 22 August 2003

Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 07 May 2004

Imagem Modis de 2004-05-21, com excesso de nuvens

Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 21 May 2004

Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 07 June 2004

6.000 hectares deforested in one month!

Altamira (Pará) – MODIS Image – 22 June 2004

Altamira (Pará) – LANDSAT Image – 07 July 2004

Go to the field....

...and get the bad guys!

NASA’s mission formerly began with “To understand and protect our home planet…”. Those words have now been replaced with “Pioneering the future…”. The aim of better exploring the moon and Mars has attractions, but we agree with the sentiment “The planet that has to matter most to us is the one we live on.”

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

LANDSAT-5 1984

LANDSAT-8 2012

SPOT-4 1998

SPOT-5 2002

CBERS-2 2003

CBERS-2B 2007

CBERS-3 2009

IRS-P6 2003

IRS-P6/2 2008

Land Remote Sensing: 20 to 50 meter resolution

public commercial

India’s ResourceSat and the China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS) might be good sources of useful data to substitute for the loss of Landsat data during this period (pg. 37)

August 2007

USGS/EROS Data Center EOS Polar Ground NetworkInternational Cooperators (Landsat 5 & Landsat 7) IC (Landsat 7 only)LTAP+ Station (University of Puerto Rico) IC (Landsat 5 only) (Ar Riyad, Saudi Arabia)Campaign Station (Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia)

LANDSAT Ground Station Network

CBERS: data where it is most needed

CBERS ground stations will cover most of the Earth’s land mass between 300N and 300S

The Group on Earth Observations, GEO, is leading a worldwide effort to build a Global Earth Observation System of Systems, GEOSS.

We have the knowledge…We have the technology…We have the institutions…

Do we have the will?

One world, one dream...

Free Earth Observation data for all!

TERRA (ASTER & MODIS)

LANDSAT

SPOT

ALOS

RESOURCESAT

IRS

CBERS

A Potential Land Surface Imaging Constellation

SAC-C

Source: Daniel Vidal-Madjar (France)

Number of Cloud Free Landsat 7 Data

79,223 Scenes with 30% or less cloud cover

12,785 unique, daytime path/row combinations(6/29/99 - 3/31/02)

source: USGS

166-112

116-113

116-112

TerraAmazon – open source software for deforestation monitoring

TerraAmazon – open source software for deforestation monitoring

The elements of a capacity building strategy

“Qualified specialists produce relevant results by using good-quality data with adequate tools in stable institutions”

Capacity building = people + data + infrastructure

Até 10%

10 - 20%

20 – 30%

30 – 40%

40 – 50%

50 – 60%

60 – 70%

70 – 80%

80 – 90%

90 – 100%

Total Deforestation up to 1997

Increment – 2000 a 2006

Até 5 %

5 - 10%

10 – 15%

15 – 20%

20 – 24%

24 – 29%

29 – 34%

34 – 39%

39 – 43%

43 – 49%

Large-Scale Agriculture

Agricultural Areas (ha)

  1970 1995/1996 %

Legal Amazonia 5,375,16532,932,15

8 513

Brazil33,038,02

799,485,58

0 203

Source: IBGE - Agrarian Census

photo source: Edson Sano (EMBRAPA)

Unidade 1992 2001 %Amazônia Legal 29915799 51689061 72,78% Brasil 154,229,303 176,388,726 14,36%Fonte: PAM - IBGE

Cattle in Amazonia and Brazil

Cattle in Amazonia and Brazil

Unidade 1992 2001 %

Amazônia Legal 29,915,799 51,689,061 72,78%

Brasil154,229,30

3176,388,72

6 14,36%

photo source: Edson Sano (EMBRAPA)

Rondônia (Vale do Anari)

People changing the landscape

Field knowledge is fundamental!

Deforestation classes per area

13%22%27%32%31%68%38%More than 300 ha

10%11%11%12%14%6%12%150 a 300 ha

7%7%7%7%8%3%8%100 a 150 ha

16%14%13%12%13%6%12%50 a 100 ha

19%16%13%11%11%5%11%25 a 50 ha

25%20%16%14%12%6%11%10 a 25 ha

10%9%9%8%6%4%5%Less than 10 ha

2006200520042003200220012000

Tendência de Aumento Tendência de ReduçãoAproxim. Estável

Au

men

toR

edu

çãoE

stável

Deforested areas with more than 300ha em 2003

+ protected areas

New Frontiers

Deforestation

Forest

Non-forest

Clouds/no data

INPE 2003/2004:

Dynamic areas (current and future)

Intense Pressure

Future expansion

Trends in deforestation and meat prices

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

1994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006

R$

ou

IG

P

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

K2

des

mat

ado

s

Preço boi (IGP) São Paulo Km2 desmatado na Amazônia

Source: Paulo Barreto (IMAZON)

Trends in deforestation and soya prices

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

R$

ou

IG

P

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

K2

des

mat

ado

s

Soja (Média anual) deflacionado R$/sc 60 kg - MT Km2 desmatado na Amazônia

Source: Paulo Barreto (IMAZON)

Next steps

Bali conference: Brazil will anounce a Centre for Global Tropical Forest Monitoring

Open to collaborations world wide Emphasis on South-South cooperation