work sample b- colts off season preview, word format

8/2/2019 Work Sample B- Colts Off Season Preview, Word Format

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Colts Off Season PreviewGary Leonard

Well, its the end of the regular season and I thought Id take an early look at what theColts need to do to get their house in order and make a run for the Super Bowl in 2002.

Before I write any farther, Id like to put a BIG disclaimer on this and say Im no expert onthe salary cap, free agency or the draft and I will never claim to be. Im just a fan (andcollege student) who believes in looking at the big picture. Im a firm believer that footballseasons are won or lost in the off season. I also find it a time for incredible optimism andopportunity for the Colts and their fans. To that end, Ive put in a lot of time and effort tounderstand the NFL Salary Cap and to find the information that is contained herein. Thefacts and figures Ive included are complete to the best of my knowledge, although Imsure there are mistakes, as I do not have access to any players contracts or insideinformation. All the information Ive gathered has been done through sources available onthe Internet. Still, I think its a fairly accurate look at the Colts, their cap position and

possibilities for free agency and the NFL Draft. Ive enjoyed doing this immensely and itis my fervent hope that you will enjoy reading and learning from it.

Important Dates

February 22-26, 2001- NFL Draft Combine (RCA Dome, Indianapolis, IN)March 5, 2001- Start of NFL Free AgencyApril 21 & 22, 2001- NFL Draft

Explanation of Terms for Free Agency

NFL Players are divided into three tiers for the purpose of free agency. They are listed asUnrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA), or Exclusive Free Agents(EFA). The explanations for the three tiers of free agency are as follows:

Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA): an unrestricted free agent is a player who has earned fouror more accrued seasons in the NFL. UFAs are free to negotiate with any team at theexpiration of their contracts unless the player is given a franchise or transition tag. TheColts will probably not use a franchise or transition tag on any players in the 2001 off-season.

Restricted Free Agent (RFA): a restricted free agent is a player with three accrued seasons

in the NFL. The player may negotiate with other teams at the expiration of his contract butcertain restrictions are placed upon the negotiating player. These restrictions take the formthree offer levels. Also, a team must designate restricted free agents before the start offree agency by offering one-year contracts to eligible RFAs. If the team does not offer acontract to a RFA before the start of free agency, he is free to negotiate with any team,exactly like an UFA. The offer levels are as follows:

1st Level: $472,000 (team receives original draft pick as compensation).


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2nd Level: $1,027,000 (team receives 1st round pick as compensation).3rd Level: $1,371,000 (team receives 1st and 3rd round picks as compensation).

If any team other than the players original team signs the player to an offer sheet, theoriginal team gets a right of first refusal by matching the contract. If the original team

elects not to keep the player, the original team receives the designated draft picks from theplayers new team.

Exclusive Free Agent (EFA): an exclusive free agent is a player that has less than threeaccrued seasons in the NFL. The player may negotiate only with his original team. Aswith a RFA, the team must make a minimum offer to a player in order to retain theexclusive rights of a player. If a team elects not to offer an EFA-eligible player a contractbefore the start of free agency, the player becomes an UFA and can negotiate with anyteam. The minimum level offers for EFAs are as follows:

Less than 1 credited season: $193,000

1 credited season: $275,0002 credited seasons: $358,000

Accrued and Credited Seasons Explanation:Accrued Season: an accrued season is, according to Section 6, Article 34 of the CollectiveBargaining Agreement (CBA), a season in which that a player spends a minimum of 6regular season games on a teams active roster. This does not include time on a teamPhysically Unable to Perform (PUP) List, time on a practice squad or time on the NFLExempt Commissioner List. Accrued seasons are used for determining free agenteligibility.

Credited Season: a credited season is, according to Section 1, Article 18 of the CBA, aseason in which a player spends three or more regular-season games on a clubs activeroster. This does not include time spent on a PUP List, time on a practice squad, time onthe NFL Exempt Commissioner List or time spent on a clubs injured reserve list.Credited seasons are used to determine a players minimum level of pay.

Minimum Salaries: the NFL has divided minimum salaries based on the number ofcreditedseasons a player has. The minimum salary levels are as follows:

Less than 1 credited season: $193,0001 credited season: $275,0002 credited seasons: $358,0003 credited seasons: $385,0004 credited seasons: $413,0005 or more credited seasons: $440,000

Colts 2001 Free Agents


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Colts players eligible for free agency are grouped here as UFAs, RFAs and EFAs. Theyare subdivided alphabetically by name.

UFAsAbdul Karim Al-Jabbar, running back

Jason Belser, free safetyBilly Joe Hobert, quarterbackDwight Hollier, linebackerMarcus Pollard, tight endBernard Whittington, defensive tackle

RFAsBilly Austin, safetyTony Blevins, safetyLarry Chester, defensive tackleE. G. Green, wide receiver

Waverly Jackson, offensive tackleSteve McKinney, offensive guardLarry Moore, offensive guardRatcliff Thomas, linebacker

EFAsPhil Armour, centerJames Finn, fullbackPhil Glover, linebackerLennox Gordon, running backJosh Keur, tight endDanny Kight, kickerBrandon Miller, defensive tackleChukie Nworkie, defensive endTim Ridder, offensive tackleJeff Saturday, centerPaul Shields, running backJustin Snow, tight endPaul Spicer, defensive endSam Sword, linebackerJosh Tucker, offensive tackle

Colts Free Agent Priorities (Colts Players)

(Placed in order of importance to the Colts)

1. Steve McKinney, G, (RFA) - a key piece of the offensive line, McKinney will be givena Level 3 RFA offer, meaning any team that wants to sign him will have to cough up 1st

and 3rd round picks in the draft. That is very unlikely, as teams dont like to use high


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draft picks on guards. McKinneys contract with the Colts will probably end up beinga four or five-year deal averaging two million dollars per year.

2. Marcus Pollard, TE, (UFA) - the Colts would love to have Pollard back, especially asthe two tight-end set is the prevalent base offensive formation. Unfortunately for theColts, Pollard will probably receive offers from other teams (keep an eye on

Philadelphia) of at least two million dollars per season. Given Ken Dilgers largecontract, it would be very hard to find the cap room to retain Pollard at this price.Looking at these facts, Pollard is probably gone come free agency.

3. Jeff Saturday, C, (EFA) - Saturday has really grown into this position. Manning andSaturday seem to work well together and he doesnt make many mistakes directing theline. Keeping most of the offensive line together to provide continuity is also a Coltspriority. Saturday is an EFA, so he will not be going anywhere.

4. Dwight Hollier, LB, (UFA) - Hollier has really endeared himself to the staff, playersand fans with his gritty play. While hes not a game-breaking player, hes a solidveteran who would excel as a backup for the Colts, able to come in and play for shortperiods. Added to his value is Holliers ability to play all three linebacker positions.

He probably wont receive any substantial offers from other teams and will probably beable to be retained by the Colts for the veteran minimum.5. Waverly Jackson, OT, (RFA) - a versatile backup for the offensive line, Jackson has

become the sixth man of a five man line. His ability to play both guard and tackle,coupled with his familiarity with the rest of the offensive lineman, makes him anextremely valuable player. He has played well in relief of injured players this seasonand proved his worth to the club. Jackson will be tendered a Level 1 RFA contractoffer and will probably stay with the Colts.

6. Larry Moore, G, (RFA) - four offensive lineman are mentioned in the top six Colts freeagent priorities. Does anyone see a pattern here? Offensive line is one of the toughest,if not toughest positions to play in the NFL. As such, it is vital that all the members ofan offensive line act as one unit, not five separate players. To ensure the solid play ofthe Colts line, Larry Moore will be given a Level 1 RFA contract. While an upgrade atright guard is certainly warranted, its not become a trouble spot, yet. Keeping Moorefor at least one more season would allow the Colts to keep the offensive line intact andallow them the time to groom a replacement behind Moore.

7. E. G. Green, WR, (RFA) - we all know the talent is there, its just become a matter ofkeeping Green healthy and on the field. The Colts will give him one more shot toprove his worth and offer him a Level 1 contract. As a team would be required to giveup a 3rd round draft pick to acquire Greens service, he will most likely remain a Coltfor at least one more year.

8. Jason Belser, FS, (UFA) - he has been a staple at safety since the early 1990s, areminder of some tough times for the Colts, a great example off the field and a truewarrior. It appears that nine years of pounding are starting to catch up, however, andJasons stay in Indy may be coming to a close as a result. He has been weak in passcoverage and seems to have really slowed down as a player this season, though he didseem to improve over the last few games. Keeping him would cost over the long haul,as he made over $2,300,000 this season. If his salary cant be lowered significantly,Belser will not be back. It looks like the time for a replacement has come, unless he


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stays for a veteran minimum contract, something hes unlikely to do. Good bye andgood luck, Jason; thanks for some great memories!

9. Tony Blevins, S, (RFA) - Blevins has been coming along nicely and seems to bedeveloping into a solid player, especially this season, as he has looked good in spotduty. With the likely departure of Jason Belser, Blevins time may have arrived. He

will be given a Level 1 offer and will probably be retained by the Colts.10. Justin Snow, TE/LS, (EFA) - when was the last time you heard an announcer mentionthis guys name? You probably cant remember and thats why hell remain a Colt. Asthe teams long snapper, he has been almost flawless, hence the reason hes nevermentioned during a game. He is also the third tight end, although hes almost neverutilized. The Colts will give him a minimum contract.

11. James Finn, FB, (EFA) - despite a goal line fumble, Finn has looked pretty good thisseason when hes been in games, which isnt often. Hes looked solid as a run-blockerfor Edgerrin James and can catch the ball. Because of his versatility and generallysolid play, he will receive his minimum contract and stay a Colt.

12. Ratcliff Thomas, LB, (RFA) - a three year project, he has turned into a good special

teams player. Unfortunately for Thomas, that wont translate into big bucks in todaysNFL. The Colts may be looking to upgrade the linebacker depth but Thomas will stillreceive a minimum RFA offer.

13. Josh Keur, TE, (EFA) - with Pollard likely to depart in free agency, Keur becomes theman most likely to replace him. His playing time has been almost nil but the staff musthave seen something in him to keep him on the roster this season. He will probably betendered a contract. If for some reason Pollard stayed, Keur would becomeexpendable, however.

14. Brandon Miller, DT, (EFA) - a project player, the staff has seen very little of him duringthe regular season. Given the lack of depth along the defensive line, he will probablybe tendered and given a shot in the off-season to make a name for himself.

15. Danny Kight, K, (EFA) - if there is any way that Kight can be let go, the Colts will doit. But, until Mike Vanderjagt or Hunter Smith can prove capable of handling kickoffduties, Kight will stay on the team.

16. Bernard Whittington, DT, (UFA) - the Colts are looking to seriously upgrade thedefensive line, so the odds are that Whittington will be allowed to leave. He can alsoplay defensive end, and if he is willing to play for the veteran minimum, he might staybut its unlikely.

17. Larry Chester, DT, (EFA) - a project for the past few years, it looks like his time may bejust about up. If he is willing to accept a minimum RFA tender, he will stick aroundfor another year or so as a rotation man on the defensive line.

18. Phil Armour, C, (EFA) - Jeff Saturdays backup hasnt logged a major appearance yetthis season. Lets hope it remains that way. He provides cheap, young depth at centerand will probably be resigned to a minimum contract.

19. Billy Joe Hobert, QB, (UFA) - brought in to be the third-string backup QB, its doubtfulhe will even be offered a contract by the Colts.

20. Billy Austin, S, (RFA) - unlikely to be tendered, Austin has never really shown much inthe way of play-making skills.

21. Abdul Karim Al-Jabbar, RB, (UFA) - his short time with the Colts has expired due toinjury. He will not be returning in all likelihood.


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EFAs Not Tendered OffersThe following players are not likely to stay on the Colts roster past the end of this season:Phil Glover, LBLennox Gordon, RB

Chukie Nworkie, DETim Ridder, OLPaul Shields, RBSam Sword, LBJosh Tucker, OT

Colts 2001 Salary Cap Figures

Salary Cap Figures ExplanationOne of the keys to every NFL teams off-season is its salary cap situation. Using theColtsNews salary cap spreadsheet (make this a link), lets take a look at what will most

likely happen. The NFL has stated that the 2001 NFL Salary Cap will be $67,400,000. Wewill use that as our salary cap figure throughout for the following calculations andassumptions. I will use an explanation and then show the cap figures in simplemathematical formulas.

Assuming a $67,400,0000 cap and the fact that the Colts have committed salaries of$57,351,900, that leaves the Colts with $10,048,100 in cap room. Now, add in the cost ofmaintaining a 5-man practice squad. Each player on the practice squad costs $4,000 aweek. With 5 players on the squad and 17 weeks in a season, that adds up to $340,000.The last two players on the roster usually make rookie minimum salaries, $193,000 apiece.These two salaries, for the 52nd and 53rd players on the roster, equal $386,000. That leavesthe Colts with $9,322,100. Now we need to take out the amount for the rookies that will beacquired in the NFL Draft. Based on the projected draft position of the Colts (22nd pick),by looking at what Colts players received last year in each round of the draft and by addinga small increase in salaries over last seasons rookies (10%), we arrive at a figure of$2,825,000. While this is probably too high, again I come down on the side of caution.This leaves the Colts with $6,497,100. By projecting tender offers to RFAs and EFAs(from Colts Free Agent Priorities above), $6,377,000, that leaves the Colts with $120,100.Weve hit our first salary cap problem, so now we need to add in projected cuts andrenegotiations to free up cap space, giving us a figure of $120,100 + $5,200,000 =$5,320,100. That leaves us with a total of $5,320,100 to resign Colts UFA players andacquire new ones in free agency.

Colts Salary Cap Formulas1. Practice Squad: [4,000(5)]17 = $340,0002. 52nd and 53rd Players : (193,000)2 = $386,0003. Rookie Cap Pool : 1,000,000 (round 1) + 460,000 (round 2) + 360,000(round 3) +

310,000 (round 4) + 285,000 (round 5) + 205,000 (round 7) + 205,000 (round 7) =$2,825,000


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4. RFAs and EFAs : Steve McKinney (1,371,000) + Jeff Saturday (358,000) + WaverlyJackson (472,000) + Larry Moore (472,000) + E.G. Green (472,000) + Tony Blevins(472,000) + Justin Snow (275,000) + James Finn (275,000) + Josh Keur (275,000) +Ratclif Thomas (472,000) + Brandon Miller (275,000) + Danny Kight (358,000) +Larry Chester (472,000) + Phil Armour (358,000) = $6,377,000

5. Probable cuts/renegotiations among Colts players :Mark Thomas (cut before June 1): $600,000 saved.Cornelius Bennett (cut after June 1): $1,350,000 saved.Chad Cota (cut after June 1): $1,750,000 saved.Jeff Burris (renegotiate): original 2001 cap hit: $4,300,000, reduced to $2,800,000 =$1,500,000 saved.Total savings: 1,350,000 + 600,000 + 1,500,000 + 1,750,000 = $5,200,000 saved.

6. Overall Formula :$67,400,000 (Salary Cap)

($57,351,900) (Colts Committed Salaries)$10,048,100 (Remaining Cap Space)

($340,000) (Practice Squad)($386,000) (52nd and 53rd players)$9,322,100 (Remaining Cap Space)($2,825,000) (Rookie Cap Pool)$6,497,100 (Remaining Cap Space)

($6,377,000) (RFAs and EFAs contracts)120,100 (Remaining Cap Space)

+ $5,200,000 (Cut and restructured contracts)$5,320,100 (Remaining amount to sign UFAs)

Colts Free Agency Priorities (all NFL Free agents)

This season has brought two major facts to light; the defense needs playmakers and asecond wide receiver is needed. Using these lessons gives a good place to start in figuringout what players to select in free agency and the draft. First, lets identify specific positionsthat need to be addressed. They are, in order of importance:

1. Left Defensive End- the combination of Mark Thomas and Bernard Holsey has beenrelatively ineffective this season. Brad Scioli has shown flashes but may not be thefull-time answer. A solid, all-purpose defensive end is sorely needed. This would alsohelp RDE Chad Bratzke by taking some of the pressure and double-teams off of him. Itwould also help the secondary in reducing the time opposing quarterbacks have inmaking their reads and completing their throws.

2. Defensive Tackle- Josh Williams has had a great rookie year and Ellis Johnson is avery good tackle but both players are more of the pass disrupting, inside penetratorsused on passing downs. Whats needed is a big, run-stuffing tackle that can be used onrunning downs.

3. Cornerback- a lack of a big, shutdown corner has been in evidence all year. WhileDavid Macklin has shown rapid improvement week-by-week, he doesnt have the size


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and speed to match up against the big, elite receivers in the NFL. A tall, strongcornerback would be a godsend to the defensive secondary of the Colts.

4. Wide Receiver- just like last season, no compliment to Marvin Harrison has emerged.Jerome Pathon looks too inconsistent, Terrence Wilkins is more suited to being a thirdreceiver and E. G. Green just cant stay healthy. Whats needed is a big, tall, over-the-

middle, possession type receiver. This would also add more of a threat in the red zone.5. Right Offensive Guard- Larry Moore has been adequate but doesnt have very muchupside. Also, hes prone to missing a few blocking assignments each game, allowingdefenders in the backfield. Whats needed is a good, all-purpose guard who can runand pass block better than Moore.

6. Safety- Jason Belser is starting to slip and Chad Cota has been nothing special. TonyBlevins may have something to offer but the jurys still out on him. With Jeff Burrisprobably staying at cornerback given his excellent play at the end of the season, a solidyoung safety is needed to groom behind Cota or whoever starts at free safety.

7. Linebacker- what impact a full off-season will have on Rob Morris remains to be seen.Marcus Washington looks like a good pass rusher but hasnt seen extensive playing

time except on passing downs. Mike Peterson is star in the making at the weakside, butdepth for all three starting positions is sorely lacking. The release of Bennett certainlydoesnt help and Ratcliff Thomas is nothing more than a special teams gunner. DwightHollier can play all three linebacker positions but more depth is definitely needed.

8. Running Back (depth)- Edgerrin James has been nothing less than sensational his firsttwo years. Still, he cant be expected to carry the load forever without running out ofgas sometimes. A change of pace back would be an excellent addition and give Jamesa much-needed rest every now and then.

9. Quarterback (depth)- getting a young quarterback to groom behind Manning wouldprovide some added insurance in case of an injury to Manning, especially as KellyHolcomb is the primary backup.

10. Tight End (depth)- Marcus Pollard is probably gone and no ones sure what level JoshKeur is capable of producing at. Getting another tight end could be a good safetymeasure in case Keur doesnt pan out.

Having identified the major areas to be addressed in free agency and the draft, we nowhave to decide which free agents we would like to pursue. Before we can do that, we needto address several things about the NFL Draft. These are:

1. The 2001 Draft is very deep at defensive tackle and defensive end. Therefore, thesemay be positions to address during the draft.

2. The cornerback and safety positions are average to weak in this draft. Therefore, thismay be a position to look at closely in free agency.

3. All other need positions seem to be average in their ranking on draft boards.4. The Colts will have a middle-to-late position draft pick in each round. Based on the

players available, which need positions can be adequately filled using the draft?

Now lets take into account some things about this years free agent class:


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1. Several prominent wide receivers may be released after June 1st due to cap reasons.These include Herman Moore (Detroit), Keenan McCardell (Jacksonville), Rob Moore(Arizona), and Yancy Thigpen (Tennessee). Would the Colts want to pursue one ofthese players and, more importantly, can Indianapolis afford them or should the Coltsdraft a wide receiver?

2. All high profile, impact defensive ends are likely to be franchised by their respectiveteams. Would it be wise for the Colts to just draft a defensive end?3. The best cornerbacks available have age or injury questions. Since the draft is weak at

cornerback, is it worth the risk to sign one of these players?

We have now addressed some of the major issues of free agency and the draft. With thisinformation in hand, I will now try to project what the Colts will do in free agency. TheColts only have $5,320,100 in cap room, so we probably can only afford to sign one majorimpact player and one other quality veteran. If the Colts resign linebacker Dwight Hollier,which I think they will for the veteran minimum, that leaves the Colts only $4,880,100($5,320,100 - $440,000 = $4,880,100) in cap space.

2001 Available Free Agents(Available Free Agents are ranked from best to worst.)Defensive End1. Kevin Carter, St. Louis- by far the best end available this year, it is extremely likely he

will have the franchise tag placed on him. Along with the fact that he will command anenormous salary, it is highly unlikely that the Colts will attempt to sign him. If he isntfranchised, there is an outside possibility that Colts would pursue him. Im notcounting on him, however.

2. Simeon Rice, Arizona- Rice has been an excellent pass rusher but has had realproblems holding up against the run. He also plays right defensive end, the same spotas Bratzke. Add to this that he is also very likely to be franchised and it appears theColts wont be bringing Rice on board.

3. Jason Taylor, Miami- this guy is a clone of Simeon Rice, except he has a better attitude,but is in the same position as Rice. As with Rice, the Colts probably wont be chasingTaylor.

4. Tracy Scroggins, Detroit- hes having an excellent year but is in the same category asthe prior two candidates. Hes also 31 years old. I doubt the Colts go after him.

5. Bryan Robinson, Chicago- this could be exactly the type of end the Colts are lookingfor. Hes got good size, is young, plays the run very well, is an adequate pass rusherand plays the spot opposite Brtazke. The only problem is the Bears have lots of caproom and could probably match any offer the Colts could make. Hes a possibility butone that probably wont happen.

6. Kenny Holmes, Tennessee- he has been something of an underachiever for the Titansuntil the last two years and his motivation has been questioned. He also plays the samespot as Bratzke.


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Defensive End Final Analysis: The likelihood of an impact defensive end becomingavailable in free agency is unlikely. Also, this is the best draft class for defensive linemanin years. I dont expect the Colts to land a defensive end in free agency.

Defensive Tackle

1. Jason Ferguson, New York Jets- a fairly solid run-stuffer for several years with the Jets,he has the look of being a solid rotational player for the Colts. His downside is that heseems to have really fallen off this season and he has played almost exclusively in a 3-4defense since coming into the league. Still, he is a young player with upside and, ifavailable for the right price, could be a good fit in Indianapolis.

2. Chad Eaton, New England- he has been the most solid tackle in New England for threeyears. While hes not an exceptional player, the Patriots run defense really sufferedwhen he was out of the line up with an injury earlier this season. While he doesnthave a lot of upside, he seems to fit in the mold of Jason Ferguson as far as being solidagainst the run. If his price isnt too high, he could be a nice addition.

3. Mark Smith, Arizona- he would be the number one tackle in free agency if it werent

for two glaring problems, injuries and inconsistent play. He really flashed some skillshis first two years but then seemed to melt down after a hold out last season andnumerous injuries the last two years. He wants out of Arizona, though, and if he iswilling to play cheap in the short term, could elevate his level of play again. Any teamthat brings him in has to be aware of his risks, however. The Colts would be advised tostay away from Smith.

4. Leon Lett, Dallas- if this was 1995, Id want to grab Lett in a heartbeat. Its not,however, and hes no longer the same player that he used to be. Along with hisnumerous off the field problems, it would be wise for the Colts to let someone elsehave him.

5. Christian Peter, New York Giants- he really seems to be coming into his own and maybe about to peak as a player. Coming into the league, there were numerous questionsabout his character but he seems to have put those behind him. He should be availableat a decent price and looks like hed be a good fit in the Colts defense. Peter could beexactly what Indianapolis wants.

6. Kelvin Pritchett, Detroit- an older player, hes still a valuable member of the Lions linerotation. His forte is stopping the run and Pritchett could provide some much-neededveteran leadership on the defense. Still, he isnt getting any younger and its doubtfulhe could hold up over the long term if pushed into a starting role because of injuries.

Defensive Tackle Analysis: There are several solid defensive tackles available in freeagency, some of whom seem to fit what the Colts would be looking for. If the price isright, I could easily see the Colts signing one of these players. Still, they may look to thedraft as, just like with defensive ends, this looks to be a very deep draft at tackle. I put theodds at 60/40 the Colts sign a free agent tackle vs. the draft.

Cornerback1. Aeneas Williams, Arizona- Williams has been the heart and soul of the Arizona

defense for a long time. He has always been an outstanding player but may be slowingdown now that hes 32. Hes also suffered several minor injuries the last two seasons.


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Still, hes is clearly the best cornerback available, not just for his play but also for hisleadership. This pickup would make sense for the Colts but Williams price tag may betoo high.

2. Jason Sehorn, New York Giants- if not for his nagging injuries the past three years,Sehorn would rank right up with Williams. However, he missed significant again this

year and has to be labeled a serious injury risk for any team that brings him in. I expecthis price will be too high for the Colts, something that has to be considered with all hisinjuries.

3. Ray Buchanan, Atlanta- quietly having his best year ever with Atlanta, Buchanan couldbe a good fit in Indy. The only drawback might be his asking price, expected to behigh. Still, wouldnt that be ironic to see him return to the Colts after leaving via freeagency several years ago?

4. Todd Lyght, St. Louis- Lyght has certainly seen his stock fall this season. Going intothe season, it looked like he would be a highly sought after free agent. Now hes beendemoted and has been at odds with Rams head coach Mike Martz. He could be a stealin free agency, however, as he would have something to prove if allowed to leave. He

will be 32 in February, so age could become a factor for teams interested in Lyght.5. Samari Rolle, (RFA), Tennessee- a restricted free agent, Rolle has become a very goodcornerback for Tennessee. He will probably be tendered a high offer making his pricetag too steep for the Colts to pay for his services.

6. Ronde Barber Tampa Bay- while hes small physically, he has come a long way in ashort time in the NFL. He is adept at zone coverage, which is what the Colts use butBarber also benefits from the use of a lot of Cover 2 schemes in the Buccaneersdefense. If the Colts pursue him, they will need to look heavily at game tapes todetermine how often he can be left alone in coverage. His small size has to be takeninto account, also.

7. Walt Harris, Chicago- he has all the measurables physically, but his play has beeninconsistent at best throughout his career. With all the cap room Chicago has, it mightbe best to let them retain him.

Cornerback Analysis: While Jason Sehorn and Aeneas Williams are both big name players,serious questions involving age and injuries are attached to them. The other cornerbacksavailable really dont fit what the Colts are looking for in the secondary. Because of thesereasons, and the fact that the Colts already are spending large amounts of money on theirsecondary, I don not expect them to pursue a cornerback in free agency.

Safety1. Darren Sharper, Green Bay- this season, Sharper finally seems to have put it all

together. In the past, he has had bouts of inconsistent play but that hasnt beenapparent this year. How much of this is due to this being a contract year for Sharper isunknown but he is solid against the run and plays well in coverage. He could be a goodfit for the Colts but with his expected high price, Sharper may not really seem to fit.

2. Brock Marion, Miami- a very good player, Marion could be looking at his final NFLcontract. His asking price may therefore be too high. Still, the Colts could give him along look if Belser is not resigned.


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3. Jay Bellamy, Seattle- able to play both safety positions, Bellamy is another solidplayer. He has solidly against both the run and pass. His asking price may not be thathigh and if Burris is not sent to safety or Belser resigned, Bellamy would be a solidpickup.

Safety Analysis: The safeties available dont offer clear upgrades over the safeties that theColts presently have. It doesnt make sense for the Colts to spend money to replace playerswithout clear improvement. The Colts will probably not sign a high-priced safety this off-season, choosing instead to draft one. If the Colts were to sign a free agent safety, JayBellamy would seem to be the best fit.

Linebacker1. Dwayne Rudd, Minnesota- an outstanding player, he will command a large salary.

Because of Minnesotas cap problems, they will probably not be able to retain him. Heis extremely athletic and, along with being good against the run, can cover tight endsvery well. He will only be 25 years old in February and, if the Colts could fit him

under the cap, would be an outstanding addition. He would allow Marcus Washingtonto continue to learn his position and would solidify the linebacker corps. His price maybe too much for the Colts, though.

2. John Mobley, Denver- coming off of torn ACL into this season, Mobley has been verysolid. He plays the weakside, which is not a need area for the Colts, as it is capablymanned by Mike Peterson. Denver is expected to place the franchise tag on him andthat would make him unavailable to the Colts, who would be unlikely to pursue himanyway.

3. Jamie Sharper, Baltimore- along with fellow Ravens Ray Lewis and Peter Boulware,forms the best linebacker group in the league. Sharper is a weakside linebacker and assuch, will probably not be pursued by the Colts.

4. Jeremiah Trotter, (RFA), Philadelphia- an up-and-coming middle linebacker, Trotterwill probably be tendered the highest RFA offer. It would be extremely unlikely thatthe Colts would pursue him, despite his considerable upside.

5. Dexter Coakley, Dallas- Coakley has been a key piece of the Dallas defense the lastfew years. Unfortunately, he plays the weakside and is undersized. Another unlikelypickup for Indianapolis.

Linebacker Analysis: There are several exceptional players likely to be available at thesepositions. With the large question marks involving the Colts linebackers and lack of aclear-cut playmaker at other defensive positions, I expect the Colts to make a run at one ofthese free agents.

Wide Receiver1. Eric Moulds, Buffalo- far and away the best wide receiver available in the draft,

Buffalo is expected to franchise him. Even if he were to come available in free agency,his price would be extremely high, most likely pushing him out of reach for the Colts.

2. Albert Connell, Washington- playing through injuries, Connell has been the bestreceiver for the Redskins this season. He has good size and pass catching abilities butisnt an over-the-middle possession type that the Colts need. His asking price is


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expected to be high, also. Most likely, Connell will not be playing for the Colts nextyear.

3. Az-Zahir Hakim, (RFA), St. Louis- an undersized speedster, Hakim is an electrifyingspecial teams player and vital cog on offense for the Rams. He will be given a highRFA offer. This will most likely put him out of reach for the Colts

4. Donald Hayes, (RFA), Carolina- after starting out hot at the beginning of the seasonreplacing the injured Patrick Jeffers, injuries caught up with Hayes and slowed himdown until the end of the season. He is a big, physical prototype receiver whos stillgrowing into his role and may be a year or two away from becoming a dependable 2nd

wide receiver. Still, he has flashed enough skills to warrant a long look by the Colts.With his size and fearlessness across the middle, he might be exactly what the Coltswant to compliment Marvin Harrison. If he were tendered at a minimum RFA offer,the Colts would only have to spend a 4th round pick to get him. He is a very intriguingplayer the Colts will take a very hard look at.

5. Derrick Mason, Tennessee- was forced into a starting role with the Titans due toinjuries and responded by becoming their best receiver. He is more of burner-type

player with limited size. He will probably not be pursued by the Colts because of this.

Wide receiver analysis: A relatively weak class of free agents, with the exception of EricMoulds, there might be some key players released after June 1st. Because of this, I expectthe Colts to bide their time and see who becomes available after that date, then sign one.Patience will be the key to the Colts acquiring a player here.

Offensive Guard1. Will Shields, Kansas City- the best guard available in free agency, he has played at a

consistently high level for Kansas City his entire career. He would be an excellent fitto play right guard for the Colts, replacing Larry Moore in the line. Most teams do notlike to pay high salaries for guards, however. Because of this, Shields may not come toIndianapolis. Still, he would be a good fit for the Colts, if his salary demands arent toohigh.

2. Pete Kendall, Seattle- expected to depart Seattle because of differences with head coachMike Holmgren. He has played left guard since coming into the league, so it isunknown if he would fit at right guard, the most likely place the Colts would put him.He will also be expecting a large contract. This, along with his unfamiliarity of playingright guard, makes him a long shot to come to Indy.

3. Ross Verba, Green Bay- another left guard, Verba is exactly in the same position asPete Kendell. Unlike Seattle, Green Bay is expected to make a big push to keep theirleft guard, however. He is another unlikely pickup for the Colts.

4. Benji Olsen, (RFA), Tennessee- an excellent young player, he would be a great fit forthe Colts. He has gotten better all three of his years in the league and plays at a highlevel. With the Colts looking for a run blocker for Edgerrin James at right guard, Olsenwould be a great fit. The only downside is he will probably be tendered a high offer asan RFA, thereby requiring the Colts to give up 1st and 3rd round picks to acquire. Thatcould put him out of reach for the Colts.


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5. Dan Neil, Denver- another right guard, Neil is an under-sized player who is solid. Asthe Colts are looking to beef up their offensive line, Neil wouldnt appear to be in theirplans.

6. Matt Campbell, Carolina- oft injured, Campbell is the best player on a poor offensiveline. This, coupled with the fact hes a left guard, will probably make him an

afterthought in the Colts plans.

Guard Analysis: Will Shields is clearly the best guard available but he is expected to askfor a large salary. With this being a position just needing an upgrade, not immediatereplacement, the Colts will probably pass on a free agent here and draft a guard.

Possible Post-June 1st CutsThe following players may be released due to salary cap reasons by their respective teamsafter June 1st. Some of these players may be worth taking a look at for Indianapolis.

Defensive Tackle

1. Ted Washington, Buffalo- a fantastic run stuffer for years in Buffalo, his age (32) andcap figure makes him a very likely salary cap casualty. Buffalo has his replacement inPat Williams and is eleven million dollars over the cap next year. This all butguarantees Washingtons release. While he isnt the dominating force he was twoyears ago, he is still an outstanding player who could be a perfect fit for the Coltsdefensive line. If he doesnt ask for too much money and the Colts havent used a highdraft pick on a defensive tackle in the April draft, Washington could very easilybecome a Colt.

2. Sean Gilbert, Carolina- a career underachiever, Gilbert has an enormous salary for thelevel of play he has shown. While he has all the skills to become an outstanding player,he has never become the dominating force it looked like he would be when he cameinto the league. Now, at age 30, it may be too late to remain with the Panthers.However, given the recent career threatening injury to Jason Peter, Carolina may haveno choice but to keep Gilbert for at least one more season. If he is cut and the Coltstook an interest, it is difficult to say how he would be for the Colts. Personally, I feelhe would not be worth the money as he has had only had one outstanding year in theleague. It would be better just to leave him alone if he becomes available.

3. Cortez Kennedy, Seattle- he has really fallen off the last couple of years from thedominating player he used to be. He is not getting any younger at age thirty-two andhas openly talked about retiring. It looks like his best days are behind him, so Iwouldnt expect the Colts to show much interest in him, should he be released.

Defensive EndNo impact defensive ends are likely to be released.

CornerbackNo impact cornerbacks are likely to be released.

Safety


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1. Carnell Lake, Jacksonville- Jacksonville has a horrendous cap situation and Lakemissed virtually all of this season with an injury. He will also be thirty-four nextseason and carries a high cap figure. There is almost certainly going to be massivechanges in Jacksonville, given they are thirty-one million dollars over next yearssalary cap and I expect Lake to be one of the players that will be released in the cost

cutting thats sure to happen. He was a very good player two seasons ago and may beagain when he returns from injury. His age and the previously stated injury will behuge factors in deciding if the Colts want to consider bringing him in. On the plus side,hes an excellent safety, able to play both the run and pass very well, and Lakes afantastic leader on the field. If the Colts decide Burris isnt the answer at safety andLake checks out okay medically, he might be an excellent addition.

2. Darren Woodson, Dallas- Woodson is one of the few remaining players from Dallasglory days of the 1990s. He will probably be cut in cost cutting moves after this yearand would be a solid addition to any team that brings him in. Hes a good leader of thesecondary and very good in run support. On the downside, hes thirty-one and hasbecome a liability in pass coverage. Given the fact that the Colts safeties are also

liabilities in coverage, it doesnt really make sense to bring Woodson in to replacealmost identical players. I dont think hell become a Colt.

Wide Receiver1. Herman Moore, Detroit- The emergence of Germane Crowell, along with the high

salary cap figure of Moore, may spell the end of his time in Detroit. He had played atan incredibly high level the past decade until he was hurt last season, at which pointCrowell took over. While his statistics this season arent eye-popping, one has to takeinto account the unsettled quarterback and coaching situations to gain a trueunderstanding of Moores situation. He has done a fine job as the 2nd wideout for theLions after Growell was hurt early in the season. If he were to be released, the Coltswould be hard pressed to find a better player to be a complimentary receiver to MarvinHarrison. He has the size and ball catching skills that would fit in perfectly withIndianapolis offense as their 2nd wide receiver.

2. Keenan McCardell, Jacksonville- he is having a stellar year with Jacksonville but willbe thirty-three next season. His age and high salary, coupled with Jacksonvilles salarycap mess, makes him a likely candidate to be released. He would make a good playerfor Indianapolis but doesnt provide an over-the-middle, red zone threat that the Coltsneed. He is more of a sideline player, able to stretch defenses, something that MarvinHarrison already does.

3. Rob Moore, Arizona- missed the entire season with a torn ACL but seemed to beslowing down the last two years. While he can still probably play at a high level, itremains to be seen if he can come back completely from his knee injury. The Coltswould be wise to let someone else have him.

4. Yancy Thigpen, Tennessee- after suffering through three injury-riddled years atTennessee, Thigpen is a virtual certainty to be released. The signing of Carl Pickensbefore the season and the emergence of Derrick Mason make Thigpens high salaryexpendable. While he was an exceptional player in years past, he hasnt done this inover three years. Any team that brings him in would be taking a huge risk in counting


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on him to be a dependable player. This is a player that the Colts should definitely stayaway from, unless they want another E.G. Green on their hands.

Final Free Agency Analysis and PredictionsOkay, weve just finished an exhaustive look at whos available and if they would fit on the

Colts. Lets make a quick list of the potential free agents that would fit for the Colts withregards to their skills and potential salary. They are:

Defensive End: Bryan RobinsonDefensive Tackle: Jason Ferguson, Chad Eaton, Christian Peter, Ted WashingtonCornerback: Aeneas Williams, Ray BuchananSafety: Darren Sharper, Jay Bellamy, Carnell LakeLinebacker: Dwayne RuddWide Receiver: Donald Hayes, Herman Moore, Keenan McCardellGuard: Will Shields, Benji Olsen

Given that we have said the NFL draft is unusually deep at defensive end and defensivetackle, it is doubtful that the Colts will shell out big bucks for one, or both, of these twopositions. That means that Bryan Robinson, Christian Peter and Chad Eaton are probablynot coming to Indianapolis. They will also be given fair offers to remain with their currentteams. That leaves Ted Washington and Jason Ferguson as the only two significant playersleft at these positions. Unfortunately, both players play in 3-4 defense schemes; the Coltsuse a 4-3 alignment. Of the two, Washington would be the better fit as he is a much betterand more experienced player than Jason Ferguson. If the Colts are to pickup a defensivetackle in free agency, Washington should be the man. It all depends if Buffalo releaseshim, something that appears likely at this point. Still, assuming he is released, it wouldntbe until after June1st and the Colts might not want to wait that long to see if theyve foundtheir answer. He could also receive heavy interest from other teams willing to pay morethan Indianapolis. My guess is the Colts wont wait and will draft a defensive tackle, alongwith a defensive end, in the NFL Draft.

Continuing on the defensive side of the ball, there should be only two corners thatreally interest the Colts, Aeneas Williams and Ray Buchanan. Williams will be highlysought after by other teams and will probably get a large contract. That would put him outof reach for Indianpolis. This leaves the Colts with Buchanan. He will also be probably bepursued by other teams but his salary demands might not be as high as Williams.However, Buchanan isnt the big shutdown corner that the Colts are looking for and withthe already high salaries of Jeff Burris, Tyrone Poole and Chad Cota, bringing in anotherhigh priced veteran probably wouldnt make sense. The Colts will probably keep JeffBurris at one corner spot, give Tyrone Poole a shot to regain his starting role or possiblypromote David Macklin to starter and draft another cornerback somewhere in the draft.

Safety is another position that the Colts are already spending big bucks on and theymight be reluctant to go after another expensive free agent. None of the safeties availableoffer a clear upgrade over the players currently on the roster. I expect Burris to remain atthe cornerback spot, despite speculation to the contrary. Jason Belser will probably not beresigned unless its for the veteran minimum. Most likely, the Colts will draft a


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developmental player somewhere in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft for depth. If theydid go after a safety, Jay Bellamy would seem to be the best fit, both in price and ability.

Linebacker looked like it would be the strength of the Colts defense heading intothis season. Unfortunately, that wasnt the case as rookie Rob Morris was lost for theremainder of the season early on, Cornelius Bennetts level of play seemed to catch up with

his age and a hamstring injury slowed the development of rookie Marcus Washington.Going into the off season, Bennett will probably be released or retire and depth is virtuallynonexistent at all three linebacker spots. Keeping Dwight Hollier will not be enough andwith other pressing needs, the Colts cant afford to draft another early-round linebacker.Fortunately, there should be several excellent linebackers available in free agency. Add tothis the fact that the players most likely be available at the other defensive positions will beaverage or have serious questions attached to them and it becomes logical that the Coltswill target a linebacker as one their key off-season free agent acquisitions. One of theseplayers should be a primary target for the Colts, Dwayne Rudd. Rudd wouldunquestionably be the best solution as he has everything you want in a linebacker. Hissalary demands and competition from other teams might put him out of reach. However, I

firmly anticipate the Colts will hotly pursue Dwayne Rudd, as he would make a greattandem on the outside with Mike Peterson and would go a long way towards filling theholes at linebacker.

It has become readily apparent to the most casual of fan that the Colts need anotherwide receiver to match with Marvin Harrison. No one on the Colts roster is currentlycapable of filling this area. It is hurting the growth of the Colts offense and allowingdefenses to key on Harrison in the passing game. Of the free agents likely to be available,Donald Hayes and Herman Moore seem to fit this area the best. They are the big,possession type receivers that the Colts lack. Hayes is a restricted free agent but with thecap problems that Carolina faces this of season, they may only be able to afford giving hima minimum offer. If that were to happen and the Colts were to pursue him, it would onlycost the Colts a 4th round draft pick to acquire Hayes. This may not be the best option if theColts are willing to wait, though, as Herman Moore is likely to be released by the Lions. Ifthis happens, he would be an excellent fit for the Colts. He is a proven veteran and hisstyle of play would be the perfect compliment to Harrison. His salary demand shouldnt beunreasonable, also. Keenan McCardell might also be available but his style of play is verymuch like Harrisons. Still, he would help prevent defenses from keying on Harrison andcould be an answer for Indy. I expect the Colts will bring in a veteran receiver in freeagency.

No one questions that playing on the offensive line is one of the hardest things tolearn in football. However, if there is an easy position to learn on the line, its at the guardspots, thats why teams dont like to spend big bucks on guards. The only potentialproblem with the Colts offensive line seems to be the right guard spot. Notice I saypotential problem. That means there is someone at the position that can play it whileanother player is developed behind them. Thats exactly what I expect the Colts to do bydrafting a guard to learn behind Moore. I dont expect them to go after a guard in freeagency.

Colts 2001 Draft


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Its pretty hard to project what the Colts might do in the NFL Draft as this is onlyDecember. Still, using some of the assumptions from above, we can take a pretty goodguess as to what direction the Colts will go. Weve already decided that the Colts willpursue a linebacker and wide receiver in free agency. Lets list the Colts remaining needs

in order:

1. Defensive End2. Defensive Tackle3. Cornerback4. Guard5. Safety6. Running Back (depth)7. Quarterback (depth)

Indianapolis has seven draft picks. They are (by round): 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 7(from St.

Louis). Trying to predict this early who the Colts will take is a very risky proposition.Still, we can take a guess as to where in the draft the Colts might take certain prospects.Knowing what we do about the draft prospects available and by using our assumptionsabout free agency, we can project when in the draft the Colts might take a player. Hereshow I think the Colts will approach the draft:

1. 1st round : With the large amount of excellent defensive tackles and ends available, theColts will probably take one with this pick. A defensive end makes the most sense, asthis would immediately help both the pass rush and the secondary. It would also makemore sense to take a full-time player vs. a part-time player. A defensive tackle willprobably be in a three-player rotation with Josh Williams and Ellis Johnson.Remember that while there are almost no outstanding ends available in free agency,several rotational-type defensive tackles will probably be available. Therefore, itmakes sense for the Colts to draft a defensive end

2. 2nd round : Depending on which players are available, the Colts should take the bestcornerback or defensive tackle available. Again, with the quality available at tackle, itmight make more sense to grab a tall corner to help the secondary in nickel and dimepackages against larger wideouts. If for some reason an outstanding guard prospect fellthis far, that could also be a way for the Colts to go.

3. 3rd round : Thanks to the outstanding depth, the Colts can now grab their defensivetackle. If theyve already taken one in the 2nd round, a cornerback, safety or guardmight be chosen.

4. 4th round : For the past two years, the Colts have tried to get a backup for EdgerrinJames. Why not get one now? There should still be a number of quality running backprospects available at this point in the draft.

5. 5th round : If a guard or safety hasnt already been taken, now might be the time to getone. If one or both positions have been filled and the Colts dont like their linebackerdepth, one might be taken here.

6. 7th round : Picks this low often dont make the roster, so rather than take a player to filla hole, it often makes more sense to take the best player available, regardless of


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position. They have a better chance of making the roster than reaching for a lowerranked player on the draft board. These picks could be used on any positions.

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