WIST Impacts Planning Tool (WIPT): An Integrated Weather Effects

Surface Transportation Decision Aid

Mr. Richard SzymberDr. Richard Shirkey

US Army Research LaboratoryComputational and Information Sciences Directorate

Battlefield Environment DivisionWhite Sands Missile range, NM 88002-5501

Weather Information and Surface Transportation

Modeling and Simulation: Required Products and Services

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Outline

• Overview of the Integrated Weather Effects Decision Aid (IWEDA)

• Ongoing R&D related to IWEDA• Weather Running Estimate / Nowcasting• Uncertainty tolerance

• Critical Values – The “Rules”

• Notional WIST Impact Planning Tool (WIPT)

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The Tri-Service Integrated Weather Effects Decision Aid (IWEDA) is fielded to the US Army, Navy and Air Force

• Provides weather impacts on military assets (missions, operations, systems, equipment, resources/infrastructure)

• Compares critical environmental thresholds (rules) against forecast values for environmental data parameters.

Threshold criteria for IWEDA rules:

Impact Criteria

Green (favorable)

Degradation < ~25%

Amber (marginal)

Degradation = ~25 to ~75 %

Red (unfavorable)

Degradation > ~75%

IWEDA Overview

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• Weather Effects Matrix (WEM) showing forecast weather hazard conditions with time

• Map overlay depicting spatial distribution of impacts

IWEDA derives and depicts environmental impacts by generating easy-to-understand tabular and graphical products.

IWEDA Overview

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Clicking anywhere on the map displays full impact statements for all adverse weather impacts on the

asset for that specific location and time.

IWEDA Overview

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Forecast level of detail

Military System Requirements and Civil National Needs Documents (OFCM, WIST, FM-R-18-2002) identify that 5 km or less resolution is required

• The Army does not produce operational forecasts• Uses USAF Weather Agency forecast data feeds to run IWEDA in the field• ARL R&D is developing a diagnostic data assimilation and short term nowcasting

capability called the Weather Running Estimate / Nowcast (WRE-N)• Uses Local Area Prediction System (LAPS) type assimilation methods using

forward area data

Current Near-Term PotentialIWEDA Runs Off MM5 and WRF Mesoscale Forecast Data

IWEDA updates weather intelligence using forward area observations in WRE-N (0-3 hr)

Could add National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) access for extended forecasts

15 km and 5 km spatial resolution

1 km spatial resolution 5 km to 2.5 km resolution

3 hour temporal resolution 1 hour temporal resolution 6 to 1 hour temporal resolution

48 hour forecast period 3 hour forecast period Extends forecasts several days

Related R&D

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Forecast - Operational Center (AFWA) Mesoscale MM5/WRF Forecast for next 36-72 hours, 2-4 times daily, 45 to15 km resolution on a “global” domain

Forecast - Operational Center (AFWA) Mesoscale MM5/WRF Forecast for next 36-72 hours, 2-4 times daily, 45 to15 km resolution on a “global” domain

Nowcast (short term forecast) - run hourly, forecasting the next 3 hours on a 1 to 2 km grid over 150 x 150 km or smaller domains.

Nowcast (short term forecast) - run hourly, forecasting the next 3 hours on a 1 to 2 km grid over 150 x 150 km or smaller domains.

Local short term forecastsLocal short term forecasts

Diagnostic High Resolution Models – fast running (< 5 min) boundary layer wind model at 10-100 m resolution for complex and urban terrain effects on wind flow – can use local observations

Diagnostic High Resolution Models – fast running (< 5 min) boundary layer wind model at 10-100 m resolution for complex and urban terrain effects on wind flow – can use local observations

Diagnostic urban wind model running as embedded client

Weather Running Estimate / Nowcast – WRE-N

Local Analysis Prediction System (LAPS) assimilates data

WRE (advanced local analysis) – run every 15-30 minutes on a 1 km grid over a domain within the Nowcast - Integrates local and non-conventional observations (METSAT, UAS sensor data, robotic wind sensors) into current nowcast – example: LAPS

WRE (advanced local analysis) – run every 15-30 minutes on a 1 km grid over a domain within the Nowcast - Integrates local and non-conventional observations (METSAT, UAS sensor data, robotic wind sensors) into current nowcast – example: LAPS

WRE-N

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Dealing with Weather Uncertainty

• Under Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) Program, ARL has supported Next Century Corp., Columbia, MD to develop the “Weather Risk Analysis and Portrayal System (WRAP)

• WRAP portrays the uncertainty based on risk tolerance from an ensemble of synoptic scale forecasts (Global Ensemble and Mesoscale Ensemble modeling from approximately 70 km down to 1 km resolution)

• WRAP uses IWEDA Rule Sets to identify impact thresholds

• Outputs are IWEDA-like map displays of impacts with uncertainties related to thresholds and probability of being impacted

• USAF Weather Agency interest in WRAP is to integrate it to the Joint Ensemble Forecast System (JEFS) and for use with Army Battlefield Weather Teams

Related R&D

Stochastic / Ensemble

Weather Data

Asset RiskRules

User Risk Tolerance

WRAP Risk Calculations

Stop-light style decision inputs

Portrayal Techniques

Given uncertain weather, lower

acceptable risk means less

certainty in the desired outcome.

Weather Risk Analysis and Portrayal - WRAP

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“Rule-based” - critical weather threshold definitions:If {weather variable} is {>,<, or “any occurrence of” } {critical threshold value}then weather impact is {red, amber, green}

The “rule” form of the IWEDA rule-based weather impactsThe “rule” form of the IWEDA rule-based weather impacts

Critical Values (Rules)

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Understanding the nuances of surface transportation applications

• ARL’s Database contains Army impact thresholds and rules for U.S. Military Services Transportation Operations (land, sea and air logistics)

US Transportation Command assets & operations Air Mobility Command assets & operations Military Sealift Command assets & operations Military Traffic Management Command assets & operations Army 7th Transportation Group assets & operations Army Transportation School & Center assets & operations

Integrating Surface Transportation Weather Forecasting and Weather Effects Decision Aid System Development

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All the information is available to determine the Red-Amber-Green impact criteria for the WIST rules

Example showing the similarity of WIST and IWEDA rules for visibility and wind effects on transport operations

IWEDA Rules

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Example showing the similarity of WIST and IWEDA rules for visibility and wind effects on transport operations

WIST Rules

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Oil Pipeline

Component Offshore drill platform has severe impact: High Sea State

Component Distribution Terminal has marginal impact: Reduced Visibility

Component Control Center has marginal impact: Lightning Distance

Component Tank Farm has marginal impact: Flooding

MTS

RailwaysRoadways

Pipelines

Condensed View of Impacts from the Weather Effects Matrix View

Personnel

WIST Impact Planning Tool (WIPT)

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ARL is prepared to integrate the WIST thresholds & impacts with the IWEDA Rules to produce a Joint Civil – Military Operations

capability for surface transportation decision aids

Will include U.S. Civil Sectors Transportation Operations: Roadways activities & operations Federal Highways activities & operations Long-Haul Railways activities & operations Marine Transportation System activities & operations Pipeline Systems activities & operations Rural and Urban Transit Systems activities & operations Airport Ground Operations activities

Integrating Surface Transportation Weather Forecasting and Weather Effects Decision Aid System Development

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What is needed to develop and test tools to facilitate integrated Surface Transportation Weather Forecasting and

Weather Effects Decision Aid System Development?

Integrating Surface Transportation Weather Forecasting and Weather Effects Decision Aid System Development

ARL has T-IWEDA technology developed over 10 years at a cost > $ 1M which can be leveraged

Our experience can merge military weather impacts with civil weather impacts

WIST rule base to produce a Joint Civil-Military Operations capability for weather impacts/warnings

Tailored applications

We are in the process of producing a web-based capability to both access weather inputs and provide access to users through client applications

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Conclusions

Benefits to Surface Transportation Decision Makers; WIST – IWEDA Impact Planning Tool would include:• IWEDA and WIST templates that would be fully compatible (incorporating WIST mitigation action and lead time fields)

• Civil Sectors merged with Military Services T-IWEDA CRDB to establish a Joint Civil-Military Operations capability for Weather Impacts

• Automated production of weather impacts on civil-military surface transportation operations and activities, and visualization of effects in decision aids.

• Support to planning and operational needs of the civil-military surface transportation community.

• Cost-benefit savings by leveraging civil and military capabilities in surface transportation applications.

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Points of Contact:

Mr. Richard SzymberArmy Lead on Weather Impact Rules Development(505) 678-0634; Richard.Szymber@us.army.mil

Dr. Richard ShirkeyLead DoD Tri-Service IWEDA Consortium(505) 678-5470; Richard.Shirkey@us.army.mil

US Army Research Laboratory CISD/Battlefield Environment DivisionAMSRD-ARL-CI-EDWhite sands Missile range, NM 88002-5501

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Backup

Primary References for WIPT

FCM-R18-2002 Weather Information for Surface Transportation National Needs Assessment Report (December 2002)

Weather Information for Surface Transportation (WIST) Initiative Document (September 2005)

FCM-R26-2006 Weather Information for Surface Transportation Update on Weather Impacts and WIST Results (August 2006)

Joint Publication 3-26 Homeland Security (August 2005)

Joint Publication 3-57 Joint Doctrine for Civil-Military Operations (February 2001)

FCM-P11-2001 National Severe Local Storms Operations Plan (May 2001)

FCM-P12-2006 National Hurricane Operations Plan (May 2006)

FCM-P13-2005 National Winter Storms Operations Plan (December 2005)

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