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WISE M NEYA Weekly Update from SMC
(For private circulation only)
HAPPY CHHATH PUJA26TH OCTOBER
2017: Issue 602, Week: 23rd - 26th October
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n the week gone by, global stock markets traded on a mixed note during the week
despite U.S. broader index Dow Jones touched life time high. U.S. Federal Reserve IChairwoman said that she expects interest rates to rise gradually amid solid growth
even inflation remains surprisingly low. Investors were a bit cautious after comments from
Chinese Central Bank Chief that suggested stronger action to cut corporate leverage and
after warning from North Korea that a nuclear war could break out any moment. Chinese
Producer price index rose to 6.9 percent in the month of September higher than 6.3 percent
recorded in prior month indicating that manufacturing activity continues to see decent
demand.
Back at home, equity market edged lower on Wednesday, retreating from record highs hit
in the previous three sessions after a rise in bad loans at Axis Bank sparked concerns about
the recovery of stressed assets in the country's banking sector. Meanwhile, India's wholesale
inflation for the month of September came lower at 2.60 percent from 3.30 percent
recorded in the prior month on the back of 4 percent drop in food articles. The lower
inflation number came in contrast with the Reserve Bank expectations that raised inflation
forecast to 4.2 percent and 4.6 percent for third and fourth quarter respectively. Foreign
institutional investors largely remained on the sell side in the Indian equities. In the result
season that has just begun seems to be fairing well than expectations. To substantiate
further from two wheeler major; Bajaj Auto to cement Major; ACC to IT major; TCS, all
reported better than expected numbers with good forward guidance. However, there were
some misses such as Axis Bank where non-performing loans rose hurting profitability and in
case of ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company where company incurred loss as a result
of floods across the country.
On the commodity market front, it was a historic and holiday shortened week. Historic
because after the launch of 14 years of Futures market in India, commodities market got its
first option contract in gold on the platform of MCX on the auspicious occasion of
Dhanteras. Gold is expected to face resistance near $1340 in COMEX and 30400 levels in
MCX while it has support near $1260 in COMEX and 29000 in MCX. The near term focus of the
markets will remain on geo-politics as North Korea may test a long range ballistic missile in
near term. In base metal counter, upside momentum is expected to persist in copper while
lead and zinc is expected to witness profit booking at higher levels. ECB Bank Lending
Survey, CPI of Australia, GDP of UK, Durable Goods Orders, Advance Goods Trade Balance
and GDP of US, Bank of Canada Rate Decision, ECB Rate Decision, are only few strong
triggers for the market.
Contents
Equity 4-7
Derivatives 8-9
Commodity 10-13
Currency 14
IPO 15
FD Monitor 16
Mutual Fund 17-18
SMC GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.
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NEWS
DOMESTIC NEWSEconomy• India's wholesale price inflation eased unexpectedly in September, after
accelerating in the previous two months, data from the Ministry of Commerce & Industry. Wholesale prices climbed 2.60 percent year-over-year in September, slower than the 3.24 percent in August. Economists had expected the inflation to rise slightly to 3.3 percent.
Pharmaceuticals• Aurobindo Pharma has received final approval from the US health
regulator to manufacture Esomeprazole Magnesium delayed-release capsules, used in treatment of frequent heartburn, in the US market.
• Zydus Cadila has received approval from the US health regulator to market Doxazosin tablets, used for treatment of high blood pressure and urinary retention associated with enlargement of the prostate gland.
• AstraZeneca Pharma has received marketing authorisation from the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) for Xigduo XR tablets used in treatment of adults with type 2 diabetes in India. The product is indicated as an adjunct therapy to diet and exercise to improve glycemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes.
Chemicals• UPL has committed investment worth Rs 6,000 crore for an agro-chemical
and intermediate facility in Dahej. As per its MoU, UPL will create direct and indirect jobs for 10,000 people at the plant, for which the state government will provide a 600,000 square foot plot in GIDC.
IT• Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has bagged a contract in Odisha to
implement the Odisha Secretariat Workflow Automation System (OSWAS) recently for cutting down on cumbersome paper work. The contract is valued at Rs 40 crore.
Oil & Gas• Reliance Industries along with partner BP Plc, has submitted a $1.4-
billion plan to produce 7 million cubic metres a day of natural gas from KG-D6 deep-sea fields in the Bay of Bengal. The company will develop the “satellite fields” — D2, D6, D19 and D22 —in the gas-rich block along with two nearby gas fields D29 and D30, according to the field development plan submitted to the government.
Metals• Nalco is planning to set up two joint ventures - one with US-based Almex
and another with Russia's Rusal - at the upcoming Angul Aluminium Park in Odisha. The two JVs will manufacture special-grade aluminium to be used in metro trains, e-vehicles, aerospace and automobile sector.
• Hindalco Industries Ltd has firmed up plans to expand the capacity of its downstream mill at Hirakund in western Odisha. The facility makes flat-rolled products (FRP) and will see an investment of Rs 4,000 crore for ramping up capacity from 1,35,000 tonnes per annum now to 3,75,000 tonnes.
Miscellaneous• Snowman Logistics bagged an exclusive deal from IKEA, the global home
furnishing retail major, to manage backend operations of its in-store restaurants business in India.
• Grasim Industries Limited signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) worth Rs 4,100 crore for setting up two man-made fibre plants at Vilayat GIDC and Kharach-Kosamba in Bharuch district.
• Arvind Limited signed one MoU worth Rs 300 crore for an apparel manufacturing facility at Dahegam that would produce 24 million garments per annum.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS• U.S. import and export prices both increased by more than anticipated in
the month of September, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The report said import prices climbed by 0.7 percent in September after rising by 0.6 percent in August. Economists had expected import prices to increase by 0.5 percent.
• U.S production rose by 0.3 percent in September after sliding by a revised 0.7 percent in August. Economists had expected production to edge up by 0.2 percent compared to the 0.9 percent drop originally reported for the previous month.
• Homebuilder confidence in the U.S. has unexpectedly seen an improvement in the month of October, according to a report released by the National Association of Home Builders. The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index surged up to 68 in October after dropping to 64 in September. Economists had expected the index to come in unchanged compared to the previous month.
• China's Consumer price inflation eased to 1.6 percent in September from 1.8 percent in August. The rate came in line with expectations.
• China's economy is set to achieve 7 percent growth in the second half of the year on rapid growth in household consumption, People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said. The economy grew at a slower pace over the past few years. Gross domestic product grew only 6.7 percent in 2016.
• Japan Industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 2.0 percent monthly in August instead of a 2.1 percent climb reported earlier. This was followed by a 0.8 percent drop in the previous month.
• Consumer prices in China were up 1.6 percent on year in September. That was in line with expectations, and down from 1.8 percent in August.
• Eurozone inflation held steady in September, as initially estimated. Inflation came in at 1.5 percent in September, the same rate as seen in August. Inflation continues to stay well below the European Central Bank's target of 'below, but close to 2 percent'.
• The euro area trade surplus increased in August on exports. The trade surplus rose to a seasonally adjusted EUR 21.6 billion in August from EUR 17.9 billion in July.
Ex-Date Company Purpose
25-Oct-17 Colgate Palmolive (India) Interim Dividend - Rs 4.00 Per Share25-Oct-17 Tata Consultancy Services Interim Dividend Rs 7/- Per Share26-Oct-17 Dewan Housing Finance Corp. Interim Dividend - Rs 3 Per Share31-Oct-17 Infosys Buyback, Interim Dividend1-Nov-17 Hindustan Unilever Interim Dividend1-Nov-17 HCL Technologies Interim Dividend2-Nov-17 ICICI Prudential Life
Insurance Company Interim Dividend2-Nov-17 MindTree Interim Dividend6-Nov-17 Suprajit Engineering Dividend - Re 0.60 Per Share7-Nov-17 Dabur India Interim Dividend8-Nov-17 Godrej Consumer Products Interim Dividend8-Nov-17 TVS Motor Company Interim Dividend9-Nov-17 Indraprastha Gas Face Value Split (Sub-Division) - From
Rs 10/- Per Share To Rs 2/- Per Share
Meeting Date Company Purpose
23-Oct-17 Havells India Results23-Oct-17 Hindustan Zinc Results/Dividend24-Oct-17 ICICI Prudential Life
Insurance Company Results/Dividend24-Oct-17 Infosys Results/Dividend24-Oct-17 HDFC Bank Results24-Oct-17 Ambuja Cements Results24-Oct-17 ABB India Results25-Oct-17 Kotak Mahindra Bank Results25-Oct-17 HCL Technologies Results/Dividend25-Oct-17 IDFC Bank Results/Others25-Oct-17 Hindustan Unilever Results/Dividend25-Oct-17 Engineers India Results26-Oct-17 Yes Bank Results26-Oct-17 Biocon Results27-Oct-17 Maruti Suzuki India Results27-Oct-17 ITC Results27-Oct-17 ICICI Bank Results27-Oct-17 Indian Oil Corporation Results27-Oct-17 Canara Bank Results
FORTHCOMING EVENTS
NOTES:1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name
of "Morning Mantra ".2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength
coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
TREND SHEET
Stocks *Closing Trend Date Rate SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing
Price Trend Trend
Changed Changed
S&P BSE SENSEX 32584 UP 18.11.16 25627 31000 30500
NIFTY50 10211 UP 27.01.17 8641 9700 9550
NIFTY IT 10910 UP 21.07.17 10712 10500 10400
NIFTY BANK 24314 UP 27.01.17 19708 23900 23500
ACC 1784 UP 06.10.17 1740 1680 1650
BHARTIAIRTEL 462 UP 13.10.17 431 420 410
BPCL 514 UP 18.10.17 514 470 460
CIPLA 611 UP 09.06.17 551 580 560
SBIN 244 DOWN 15.09.17 272 265 270
HINDALCO 275 UP 27.01.17 191 250 240
ICICI BANK 263 DOWN 06.10.17 272 280 290
INFOSYS 924 DOWN 13.04.17 931 970 980
ITC 270 DOWN 21.07.17 289 280 285
L&T* 1141 UP 13.01.17 959 - 1130
MARUTI 7784 UP 06.01.17 5616 7500 7300
NTPC 178 UP 04.08.17 177 165 160
ONGC** 174 DOWN 31.03.17 185 - 175
RELIANCE 915 UP 23.06.17 718 820 790
TATASTEEL 710 UP 19.05.17 490 640 620
S/l
4
Closing as on 18-10-2017*LT has broken the support of 1150**ONGC has breached the resistance of 170
BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)
SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)
SMC Trend
FMCGHealthcare
Auto BankRealty
Cap GoodsCons Durable
Oil & GasPower
ITMetal
Down SidewaysUp
GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)
INDIAN INDICES (% Change)
5
SMC Trend
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500
SMC Trend
FTSE 100CAC 40
NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500
NikkeiStrait times
Hang SengShanghai
7.96
6.61
3.54 3.543.13
-3.07
-0.81 -0.51 -0.32 -0.32
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
Bharti Airtel Cipla M & M Tata Motors-DVR
Bajaj Auto Axis Bank Wipro St Bk of India H D F C Power Grid Corpn
8.13
6.62 6.50
4.92
4.03
-4.40
-3.08 -2.99-2.44
-0.70
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
Bharti Airtel Cipla Bharti Infra. B P C L Vedanta Bajaj Fin. Axis Bank Zee Entertainmen
IndusInd Bank Wipro
-1555.10
174.26
8.80
283.97
-2000.00
-1500.00
-1000.00
-500.00
0.00
500.00
Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
FII / FPI Activity MF Activity
0.66
0.54
0.93
0.83
0.73 0.73
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
Nifty Next 50
S&P CNX 500
1.22
-0.23
0.71
0.57
0.71
1.62
0.33
2.27
1.17
0.04
1.86
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index
Cons Durable Index
FMCG Index Healthcare Index
IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index
Power Index Realty Index
-0.55
-0.26
0.27
0.55
0.24
0.86
0.30
0.78
0.18
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.
FTSE 100 CAC 40
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)
Diwali Crackers - 2017
Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
6
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.
For Detail report follow the link below
http://www.smctradeonline.com/Admin/ResearchReports/636437706931088490_Diwali%20Crackers%202017.pdf
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Limited CMP: 391.85 Upside:25%Target Price: 490.00
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company is the largest private sector life company would get good growth in coming years. The key strategy of the
insurer in India. It is one of the largest fund managers in India with an AUM of company has been to grow the Value of New Business through growing the
Rs 1.27 trillion. Linked funds contributed 71% of AUM, while the company has protection business, while the company achieved its strategic goals for
a debt equity mix of 54:46. More than 90% of debt investments are in FY2017. The company is well capitalized for growth opportunities. The
domestic sovereign or AAA rated instruments. According to the management solvency ratio was at healthy level of 288.6% end June 2017, which is much
by focusing on improving protection business, persistency and costs, the above the regulatory requirement of 150%.
Gujarat State Petronet Limited CMP: 197.85 Upside:20%Target Price: 237.00
Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL) is a pioneer in developing energy benefit on account of higher gas transmission volumes and expected upward
transportation infrastructure and connecting natural gas supply sources revision in tariffs. The company has healthy debt equity ratio of less than 1 and
including LNG terminals to growing markets. Going ahead, the government's Net Worth is also increasing gradually. As per the management of the company,
focus on clean energy, floundering domestic oil and gas output and transmission business's volume growth looking good due to favorable reforms,
internationally cheap availability of natural gas will support higher imports increased LNG capacity, lower gas prices and renegotiated LNG supplier
of regassifed-liquefied natural gas (RLNG). Hence, it is expected that there contracts.
would be a domestic build up in RLNG capacity and GSPL would get the
K P R Mill Limited CMP: 732.80 Upside:18%Target Price: 868.00
KPR Mill Limited is an apparel manufacturing company, which is engaged in and profit. The impact of GST on textile business is only temporary in nature.
the business of producing yarn, knitted fabric, readymade garments and Up gradation of existing yarn capacity to value added yarns would help to
sugar. The company has initiated capacity expansion of its processing facility improve realization in textile segment from 2QFY18 onwards. Along with all
with advanced cold processing technology to meet its additional these factors, with improved government policies and new modern garment
requirement. The capacity addition is set to double from 25 MT from 50 MT capacity, the company is expected to see good growth going forward.
per day. The company grew faster than the industry in terms of both revenue
Techno Electric & Engineering Limited CMP: 350.90 Upside:28%Target Price: 450.00
Techno Electric & Engineering Company provides services to all the three management of the company is confident of the company's potential to
segments within the power sector industry — generation, transmission and expand the EPC segment on the back of capex revival, led by PGCIL and SEBs,
distribution. In FY17, the company's revenues grew by 23% to Rs 1,356 crore with strong visibility of traction in order book. In FY18, the management has
in FY17. In the last quarter alone, the company booked orders worth Rs 500 said that it would focus on closure of projects, which it believes will prune
crore. With a healthy order book position of Rs 2,600 crore, the company is retention money and improve working capital cycle.
poised to sustain its growth momentum in the next couple of years. The
H T Media Limited CMP: 102.40 Upside:24%Target Price: 127.00
HT Media is engaged in printing and publishing of newspapers. The company's The company grew faster than the industry in terms of both revenue and
segments include printing & publishing; radio broadcast & entertainment, profit. The company regained revenue growth in Print business with
and digital. It runs a Hindi daily, Hindustan, which enjoys leadership heightened focus on yield-led growth and tight control on costs to improve
positions in the markets of Bihar, Jharkhand, Delhi, etc and also runs the profitability. Also the company continues to drive revenue from its newly
second largest English daily Hindustan Times. It has shown good growth in launched Radio stations. Along with all these factors, with improved Digital
Hindi advertisement growth on quarterly basis and the management footprint by executing on digital strategy.
prospects is positive towards good growth in hindi advertisement revenue.
Charts by Spider Software India Ltd
7
EQUITY
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.The analyst, not any of its affiliated companies, not any of their members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: CAPITAL LINE
The stock closed at Rs 285.05 on 18TH October 2017. It made a 52-week low at Rs
183 on 19TH October 2016 and a 52-week high of Rs. 286.25 on 18TH October
2017. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily
chart is currently at Rs 245.83
The stock is continuously trading in uptrend after testing 200 WEMA and trading
higher. Moreover, it has formed an “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern on
weekly charts and has given the breakout of same so buying momentum may
continue in coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 279-282 levels
for the upside target of 310-320 levels with SL below 258.
Hexaware Technologies Limited (HEXAWARE)
The stock closed at Rs 258.75 on 18TH October 2017. It made a 52-week low at Rs
151.17 on 26TH December 2016 and a 52-week high of Rs 271.80 on 13TH
September 2017. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on
the daily chart is currently at Rs 213.21
As we can see on charts, that stock is consolidating in narrow range from past
few weeks with positive bias, and forming a “ Bull Pennant” pattern on weekly
charts, which is bullish in nature. Moreover, stock is closed on verge of breakout
of same with decent volume so buying can be anticipated from current levels.
Therefore, one can buy in the range of 254-256 levels for the upside targets of
JSW Steel Limited (JSWSTEEL)
DERIVATIVES
CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY)
WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET
NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY)
CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QY) (MONTHLY)
The market undertone remained bullish with support of consistent FIIs buying and short covering. Derivative data indicates bullish scenario to continue. Option
writers were active in recent rally. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls was down and closed at 9.76% while that for put options closed at 10.32%. The Nifty VIX for
the week moved up at 11.61% from 11.04. The PCR OI for the week closed up at 1.78 from 1.17, which indicates OTM put writing in 10000, 10100, 10200 puts and
unwinding in calls. Still there is a lots of outstanding short position in Nifty and Index calls. We can expect another round of short covering in the expiry week. As
per current derivative data Nifty may move towards 10300 levels. Nifty has multiple strong supports at lower levels. Various supports are 10050,10100 & 10150
spot levels. We will see short covering on every dips. Nifty moving up, with decent addition in open interest indicates strength in the current trend. October
series derivative data is stronger than September series as we have been continuously seeing open interest addition post expiry. On the technical front 10150-
10170 spot levels is strong support zone and current trend is likely to continue towards 10275-10300 in the expiry week
In lakhs
In 10000 In 10000
ADANIPORTS (OCT FUTURE)
Buy: Above `410
Target: `421
Stop loss: `404
RECLTD
BUY OCT 160. CALL 3.40SELL OCT 170. CALL 0.55
Lot size: 6000BEP: 162.85
Max. Profit: 42900.00 (7.15*6000)Max. Loss: 17100.00 (2.85*6000)
OPTIONSTRATEGY
FUTURE
CENTURYTEX
BUY OCT 1350. CALL 19.25SELL OCT 1380. CALL 8.00
Lot size: 550BEP: 1361.25
Max. Profit: 10312.50 (18.75*550)Max. Loss: 6187.50 (11.25*550)
DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES
AMARAJABAT (OCT FUTURE)
Sell: Below `678
Target: `643
Stop loss: `698
BULLISH STRATEGY
BEL
BUY OCT 175. CALL 2.00SELL OCT 180. CALL 0.75
Lot size: 4950BEP: 176.25
Max. Profit: 18562.50 (3.75*4950)Max. Loss: 6187.50 (1.25*4950)
GRASIM (OCT FUTURE)
Sell: Below `1128
Target: `1088
Stop loss: `1150
Call Put
3.8
5
3.8
0
6.0
7
8.0
2
18
.57 24
.51
21
.91
33
.50
31
.40
28
.06
26
.75
37
.27
25
.86
38
.43
49
.02
53
.79
70
.16
47
.30
48
.38
12
.45
2.9
2 7.4
6
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 10000 10100 10200 10300 10400 10500
Call Put
-0.2
5
-0.1
7
-0.2
3
-1.1
1
-3.2
7
-6.7
8 -1.8
0
-0.9
9
3.5
2 6.7
4
3.2
8
-2.0
1
-0.0
4
-1.7
0
-2.6
9
-1.4
8
-0.5
8
-1.5
0
25
.22
6.8
7
0.5
4
0.3
0
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 10000 10100 10200 10300 10400 10500
Call Put
0.3
8
0.4
7 1.8
5
2.4
6
4.4
7
0.9
6
1.0
7
1.4
0
8.8
6
5.5
2
1.7
3
1.7
1
5.0
4
8.7
1
13
.98
16
.73
0.9
5
1.4
6
0.6
6
3.4
6
2.3
8
0.0
7
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
22500 23000 23500 24000 24500 24600 24700 24800 25000 25500 26000
Call Put
-0.0
1
-0.3
5
-2.7
4
-8.9
0 -4.4
0
3.9
3
5.4
4
5.2
0
15
.48
-11
.28
6.6
5
-2.1
8
-0.9
6
0.7
2
-12
.35
16
.49
4.7
0
6.3
4
5.1
0
-24
.16
-37
.26
0.0
2
-40.00
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
22500 23000 23500 24000 24500 24600 24700 24800 25000 25500 26000
8
In lakhs
9
DERIVATIVES
FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT
SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)
17-Oct 16-Oct 13-Oct 12-Oct 11-Oct
DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 19.25 25.10 24.95 15.00 7.70
COST OF CARRY% 0.88 0.87 0.83 0.81 0.80
PCR(OI) 1.78 1.82 1.72 1.47 1.17
PCR(VOL) 0.97 1.14 1.11 1.24 1.37
A/D RATIO(NIFTY 50) 0.89 2.64 2.40 7.33 0.35
A/D RATIO* 1.60 1.16 1.20 8.48 0.20
IMPLIED VOLATILITY 9.76 9.50 9.72 11.69 10.33
VIX 11.61 11.31 11.26 11.04 11.04
HISTORY. VOL 12.62 13.02 13.09 12.94 12.06
*All Future Stock
SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)
FII’S ACTIVITY IN NIFTY FUTURE
**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup # Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
#All Future Stock
Top 10 short build upTop 10 long build up
LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng
TORNTPHARM 1334.70 4.92% 356400 25.14%
SREINFRA 116.75 3.78% 10545000 14.87%
BEML 1784.45 3.50% 2422200 13.78%
RAMCOCEM 694.70 1.14% 589600 13.21%
M&MFIN 434.50 3.04% 8835000 12.37%
TATACHEM 723.95 4.61% 6852000 11.82%
FEDERALBNK 126.05 6.96% 70785000 11.41%
STAR 884.55 1.59% 3982000 8.58%
ACC 1796.15 1.41% 1937200 8.18%
DLF 179.25 3.37% 46495000 7.00%
LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng
DCBBANK 184.80 -3.85% 7290000 22.26%
INDUSINDBK 1714.95 -2.05% 5124000 17.18%
ICICIPRULI 393.10 -3.47% 5833100 14.26%
COLPAL 1038.90 -5.08% 1928500 13.98%
CUMMINSIND 897.30 -1.53% 639600 13.65%
ZEEL 496.45 -3.07% 7787000 11.61%
BAJFINANCE 1873.90 -4.48% 5695000 11.01%
GODREJIND 608.55 -2.23% 3456000 10.45%
UBL 834.45 -1.60% 1071000 9.76%
PTC 120.30 -1.31% 17088000 9.09%
In Cr. In Cr.
17-Oct 16-Oct 13-Oct 12-Oct 11-Oct
DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 9.40 40.20 42.85 23.90 4.10
COST OF CARRY% 0.88 0.87 0.83 0.81 0.80
PCR(OI) 1.69 1.88 1.95 1.62 1.61
PCR(VOL) 0.99 0.98 1.12 1.04 1.13
A/D RATIO(NIFTY 50) 0.71 0.50 5.00 11.00 0.09
#A/D RATIO 1.20 0.47 6.33 6.33 0.16
IMPLIED VOLATILITY 12.14 12.74 12.35 11.73 13.88
VIX 11.61 11.31 11.26 11.04 11.04
HISTORY. VOL 14.18 14.52 14.98 13.87 13.38
32
4
- 49
0
31
2
- 30
- 39
1
76
8
26
3
80
8
24
86
25
8
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
04-Oct 05-Oct 06-Oct 09-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 16-Oct 17-Oct
18
33
12
92 1
52
6
69
9
37
1
21
01
10
80
12
04
12
22
10
89
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
04-Oct 05-Oct 06-Oct 09-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 16-Oct 17-Oct
10
SPICES
Soybean futures (Nov) may take support near 2800 levels. After the recent crash in prices, the farmers have slowed down their pace of bring their produce to the mandis. The prices may also get support as the central government has given approval for procurement of 100,000 tonnes soybean from farmers in Maharashtra and 150,000 tonnes of the oilseeds from Rajasthan at minimum support price. NAFED has started procuring soybean sown during the 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) Kharif season in Rajasthan. After Diwali, the procurement may get pick up. But new crop arrival started in bulk quantities in most of the market yards of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra & Rajasthan may pressurize the counter. Ref. soy oil futures (Nov) is likely to trade in the range of 658-685 levels with downside bias. In days to come, the bulk buyers may opt to stay away from market considering the lower demand after diwali. CPO futures (Nov) may consolidate in the range of 525-540 levels. The sentiments of palm oil in the domestic as well in the international market are not very encouraging as benchmark contracts are trading in tight range. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India reported that Import of vegetable oils during September 2017 is reported at 1,519,277 tonnes compared to 1,399,993 tonnes in September 2016 i.e. up by 9%, which is the highest in a single month during the current oil year. Mustard futures (Nov) might remain in the tight range of 3800-3950. According to traders, there is no major demand of mustard oil after Diwali Festival so millers are procuring mustard seed as per requirement for crushing activity. The anticipation of delay in sowing of new mustard seed crop due to unfavorable weather in Rajasthan may lift the market sentiment.
OIL AND OILSEEDS
OTHER COMMODITIES
Kapas futures (April) may continue to trade in the range of 840-890 levels with weak bias. The arrival of new crop may speed up as the forecast of dry to hot weather conditions throughout this week with temperature ranging 22-34 degree Celsius has nullified the concerns of delaying new crop supply in the market. So supply pressure amid large crop prospects ranging between 37-40 million 170kg bales continued to weigh on spot prices in the market. Guar seed futures (Nov) is likely to take support near 3675 levels & trade with an upside bias. Though activity in the market is not very encouraging at present, but is likely to improve by month-end. Market players are bullish about the commodity due to lower production prospects and expectations of export of Guargum to rise against last FY 2016-17. According to trade sources, Guarseed production could not be more than 75 lakh bags and estimated carryover stocks is around 85 lakh bags, taking the total supply to 160 lakh bags. The demand from crushers is expected to between 130-150 lakh bags, leaving behind ending stocks for 2017-18 (Oct-Sept) at around 10-30 lakh bags. But recent U.S oil/gas rigs count data was not good for the commodity, as it fell 10 times in last 16 weeks, which is a cause of concern. Cotton oil seed cake futures (Dec) is expected to consolidate in the range of 1450-1600 levels. The arrival of new cotton crop is picking up gradually that providing the raw material cottonseed in large scale. Though crushing of cotton seed has not started in full swing, but the carry over stock of cotton oil cake in 2017-18 is higher compared to 2016-17, which is weighing on cotton oil cake prices.
Bullion counter may witness a volatile movement as movement of greenback and North Korea tensions along fear of interest rate hike in Fed meeting can give further direction to the prices. Local currency rupee can move in the range of 64.20-65.60. Gold can face resistance near $1340 in COMEX and 30400 in MCX while it has support near $1260 in COMEX and 29000 in MCX. Silver has key support near 38600 in MCX and $16.30 in COMEX. And it has resistance near 41000 in MCX and $17.70 in COMEX. The near term focus of the markets will remain on geo-politics as North Korea may test a long range ballistic missile in near term. The nuclear deal with Iran is at a risk of falling apart and could change equations in the Middle East and create rift between US allies like UK, France and Germany which still support the deal. The World Gold Council (WGC), which has pegged 2017 gold demand in the range of 650-750 tonnes, stated that sales of gold jewellery and branded coins by organized players appear to have improved this quarter. Options on Gold futures were launched on 17 October on MCX. Gold Option 28 November 2017 contract and 29 January 2018 contract are available for trading and the size of the contract is 1 kilogram and priced in Rupees per 10 grams. The launch of Options will increase the number of instruments in the derivatives market and will help increase the market participation.
BULLIONS
Crude oil prices may remain on firm path as it can move in the range of 3250-3550 in MCX. Geo-political developments related to the oil market have been absent in the last couple of years but seem to be coming back again. Over the last week, Iraq moved in forces to take back oilfields in Kirkuk which were controlled by ISIS earlier and were currently in control of Kurdish military. The referendum in Kurdistan has strained relations between Iraqis and Kurds and the current conflict could potentially hamper oil exports of around 0.55 mbpd happening through Kurdistan. US-Iran relationship is also back into focus after Donald Trump refused to certify the nuclear deal recently. The deal goes back to the US Congress and could be entirely derailed if tougher conditions are unilaterally imposed on Iran. The oil market has seen a small deficit over the last three months as the growth in global supply has slowed and as OPEC compliance to cuts has improved. The OPEC monthly report showed that total OPEC output increased to 32.75 mbpd in September, up by 88,500 bpd compared to July but was 2.5% lower y/y. Natural gas may trade in the range of 190-210 in MCX. In their latest forecasts, meteorologists at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted temperatures from November through March would be 13% colder than last winter and close to the average of the previous 10 years. Investors are optimistic that colder weather would boost heating demand this winter over the prior two snow seasons, which were among the warmest on record.
ENERGY COMPLEX
In base metal counter, upside momentum can persist in copper while lead and zinc can witness profit booking at higher levels. Copper may remain on firm path and can move in the range of 450-485 as supply concerns along with decline in warehouse stock positions is supporting the prices higher. China's factories splurged on imported commodities last month amid rising costs and tighter raw material supplies driven by Beijing's anti-pollution campaign. China's unwrought copper imports surged by 26.5% in September from a year ago, but remained on course for an annual drop in 2017. China's economy is expected to grow 7% in the second half of this year, accelerating from the first six months and defying economists' expectations for a slowdown. Aluminum prices may trade in the range of 133-143 in MCX. China aluminium exports fell 10% in September from August, hitting their lowest since February. Nickel can move in the range of 720-800. On the nickel side there's been reports we may see capacity cuts in nickel pig iron. Nickel prices hit a one-month high on concerns China might order further output cuts as it ramps up efforts to clean its skies. Zinc can move in the range of 196-216. Indicating tight nearby supply, cash zinc traded at a premium of $91 a tonne to the 3 month price, its highest level going back to June 2009. LME data showed on-warrant or available zinc stocks fell to 122,425, down some 60% this year. Lead can move in the range of 154-166 levels.
Turmeric futures (Nov) is likely to trade in the range of 7250-7600. Fundamentally, there is cautiousness amidst market participants as sufficient stock is available in the domestic market and demand at present is dull as the business activities are affected due to the low liquidity after demonization and GST. Secondly, the turmeric stocks in the country is estimated around 35-37 lakh bags (70kg each) and this is likely to be sufficient to cater demand up to new crop supply expected from February-March. Prices may get some support incase export demand increases. Jeera futures (Nov) may trade sideways in the range of 18300-19400 levels & witness some lower level buying. The fundamentals are strong as the stock left is thin in the market and there is still a long way for the new crop to enter the market. Jeera stocks in Gujarat estimated to be around 10-11 lakh bags (55kg each), while stocks in other key trading centres are low. The new Jeera crop will now arrive only from February, which means that five month of time span left before new crop hits the market. The country needs around 12.5-15 lakh bags of Jeera for consumption of five month. The monthly domestic/export Jeera requirement is around 2.5-3 lakh bags. Coriander futures (Nov) may continue to remain trapped in the consolidation zone of 4700-5100 levels. Price trend of coriander is now dependent on the sowing which will start soon and the area is expected to decline this year as the farmers might switch to other commodities like Jeera, Chana for better remuneration as the prices have dropped around 38% this year.
BASE METALS
11
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
COMMODITY
SILVER MCX (DECEMBER) contract closed at `39769 on 17th Oct'17. The contract made its high of
`41927 on 08th Sep'17 and a low of `36141 on 10th July'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of
the commodity is currently at ̀ 40004.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46. One can buy in the
range of ̀ 39750 – 39600 with the stop loss of ̀ 39300 for a target of ̀ 40100.
TURMERIC NCDEX (NOVEMBER) contract closed at 7402 on 17th Oct'17. The contract made its high of
`7830 on 13th Sep'17 and a low of ̀ 7032 on 27th Sep'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the
commodity is currently at ̀ 7401.0.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43. One can buy in the
range of ̀ 7400 - 7360 with the stop loss of ̀ 7310 for a target of ̀ 7490.
`
GOLD MCX (DECEMBER) contract closed at 29598 on 17th Oct'17. The contract made its high of 30629
on 08th Sep'17 and a low of `27953 on 27th July'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the
commodity is currently at ̀ 29730.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49. One can buy in the
range of ̀ 29550 – 29450 with the stop loss of ̀ 29200 for a target of ̀ 29850.
` `
SILVER MCX (DECEMBER)
TURMERIC NCDEX (NOVEMBER)
GOLD MCX (DECEMBER)
NOTES : 1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities (Morning Mantra).
2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
EXCHANGE COMMODITY CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND TREND RATE TREND SUPPORT RESISTANCE CLOSING
PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS
NCDEX SOYABEAN NOV 2894.00 27.09.17 Down 3077.00 - 3000.00 3100.00
NCDEX JEERA NOV 18910.00 27.09.17 Down 18985.00 - 20000.00 20500.00
NCDEX REF.SOY OIL NOV 669.40 23.08.17 UP 660.85 660.00 - 655.00
NCDEX RM SEEDS NOV 3826.00 12.10.17 Sideways
NMCE PEPPER MINI NOV 43513.00 11.05.17 Down 55957.00 - 45500.00 46500.00
NMCE RUBBER NOV 12750.00 13.07.17 Sideways
MCX MENTHA OIL NOV 1261.50 20.07.17 UP 980.00 1175.00 - 1150.00
MCX CARDAMOM NOV 1011.80 27.09.17 Down 1100.50 - 1080.00 1130.00
MCX SILVER DEC 39769.00 10.08.17 UP 39213.00 38500.00 - 37000.00
MCX GOLD DEC 29598.00 10.08.17 UP 29176.00 29300.00 - 29100.00
MCX COPPER NOV 459.00 29.06.17 UP 388.25 445.00 - 435.00
MCX LEAD OCT 161.45 20.07.17 UP 141.25 158.00 - 155.00
MCX ZINC OCT 201.00 17.10.17 Sideways
MCX NICKEL OCT 761.50 12.10.17 UP 740.30 700.00 - 650.00
MCX ALUMINIUM OCT 137.95 10.08.17 UP 129.80 136.00 - 132.00
MCX CRUDE OIL NOV 3381.00 27.09.17 UP 3416.00 3250.00 - 3200.00
MCX NATURAL GAS NOV 204.30 17.10.17 Sideways
TREND SHEET
*Closing as on 17.10.17
COMMODITY
NEWS DIGEST
It was a historic and holiday shortened week for commodities market in India. Historic because
after the launch of 14 years of Futures market in India, commodities market got its first option
contract in gold on the platform of MCX on the auspicious occasion of Dhanteras. Heavy
involvement of physical buying in gold and silver on the occasion of Dhanteras and Diwali
cheered the bullion counter. Timely correction in gold and silver also encouraged physical
buying. Gold prices fell, pressured by a firmer dollar but worries over geopolitical tensions in
West Asia and on the Korean peninsula kept further losses in check. The dollar edged up against
its peers, supported by a rise in Treasury yields following a report that US President Donald
Trump was favouring a policy hawk as the next head of the Federal Reserve. Crude prices
reignited once again. Oil settled higher on fighting in Iraq and tensions between the U.S. and
Iran kept prices at their highest level in nearly three weeks. While the events have already
triggered some crude-supply disruptions in the oil-rich area, Iraq has stated that any drop in
crude production should be limited and temporary. Natural gas prices moved down. In
industrial metals complex, it was a strong week for copper and nickel. Lead and zinc turned
weak on profit booking whereas aluminium traded in a range. Copper futures surged on
renewed optimism about the strength of the Chinese economy going into a crucial policy-
setting meeting of the country's leaders. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of
China which opens on Wednesday will determine the economic goals for the country and could
have a significant impact on copper and other industrial metals as authorities continue to
tackle the country's pollution problems.
Good upside witnessed in guar on upside in crude prices amid firm trend at the spot markets.
Rising of bets by participants coupled with restricted supplies from growing regions against
rebound in demand in the spot markets, mainly supported the upside in guar seed prices in the
futures market. Chana saw lower level buying. Oil seeds and edible oil counter performed
weak to sideways on bearish cues from international market amid arrival pressure.
WEEKLY COMMENTARY
COMMODITY UNIT 12.10.17 17.10.17 DIFFERENCEQTY. QTY.
BARLEY MT 1648 1468 -180CASTOR SEED MT 34276 26415 -7861CHANA MT 2399 0 -2399CORIANDER NEW MT 10265 9396 -869GUARGUM MT 17478 18065 587GUARSEED MT 15306 15708 402JEERA NEW MT 5523 6103 580MAIZE MT 0 0 0PEPPER MT 30 30 0RM SEED MT 11768 11315 -453SOYBEAN MT 12636 26985 14349TURMERIC MT 2880 3185 305WHEAT MT 8891 8891 0
COMMODITY UNIT 12.10.17 17.10.17 DIFFERENCE
QTY. QTY.
CARDAMOM MT 2.70 3.20 0.50
GOLD KGS 59.00 56.00 -3.00
GOLD MINI KGS 47.20 16.20 -31.00
GOLD GUINEA KGS 8.19 7.90 -0.29
MENTHA OIL KGS 1676846.70 1679013.25 2166.55
SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 32458.63 36041.47 3582.84
•China's producer prices rose 6.9% in September
from a year earlier, beating market expectations.
•US gasoline stocks fell by 4% last month and now
stand near 221 million barrels, the lowest in two
years.
•OPEC has a compliance rate with their output cut
pledges of about 86%.
•Global steel demand growth is expected to slow to
1.6% next year, after strong growth in 2017 driven
by demand from top consumer China.
•U.S. industrial production rebounded modestly in
September as the lingering effects of Hurricanes
Harvey and Irma hobbled activity at factories.
•U.S. shale production for November is forecast to
rise for 11th consecutive month.
•Gujarat's groundnut production is estimated to rise
by 6.97% to 31.45 lakh tonnes during this year's
Kharif season.
•The Solvent Extractors' Association of India
reported that Import of vegetable oils during
September 2017 is reported at 1,519,277 tons
compared to 1,399,993 tons in September 2016 i.e.
up by 9%, which is the highest in a single month
during the current oil year.
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)
12
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)
NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
4.40
2.47
1.300.88
0.70
- 5.26
- 2.20
- 1.72 - 1.56 - 1.43
- 6.00
- 4.00
- 2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
SILVER MIC COPPER
CRUDEOIL
MENTHAOIL NICKEL ZINC PEPPER CARDAMOM SILVER LEAD
3.48
2.32
1.741.54
1.30
- 3.26
- 1.57 - 1.50
- 1.09- 0.87
- 4.00
- 3.00
- 2.00
- 1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
COPPER CHANAGUAR SEED
1MT BARLEYWHEA DELHI
SHANKAR KAPAS
COTTONSEEDOILCAKE AKOLA SOYABEAN PEPPER GOLDHEDGE
COMMODITY
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 12 17.10.17 CHANGE%
ALUMINIUM LME CASH 2117.50 2111.00 -0.31
COPPER LME CASH 6813.00 7046.00 3.42
LEAD LME CASH 2568.50 2496.00 -2.82
NICKEL LME CASH 11195.00 11675.00 4.29
ZINC LME CASH 3333.00 3130.00 -6.09
GOLD COMEX DEC 1296.50 1286.20 -0.79
SILVER COMEX DEC 17.27 17.04 -1.31
LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX DEC 50.15 52.11 3.91
NATURAL GAS NYMEX NOV 2.99 2.96 -0.97
.10.17
PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)
COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE
12.10.17 17.10.17
ALUMINIUM 1234025 1218950 -15075
COPPER 286925 285025 -1900
NICKEL 383148 385788 2640
LEAD 153675 151975 -1700
ZINC 267325 271900 4575
INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 12.10.17 17.10.17 CHANGE(%)
Soybean CBOT NOV Cent per Bushel 992.00 984.00 -0.81
Soy oil CBOT DEC Cent per Pound 33.28 33.59 0.93
CPO BMD DEC MYR per MT 2711.00 2733.00 0.81
Sugar LIFFE DEC 10 cents per MT 375.60 368.30 -1.94
13
SPOT PRICES (% change) TR/J CRB INDEX………. a major barometer of commodity prices and markets
Overview The CRB Index, founded by Commodity Research Bureau in 1957, is the most widely followed Index of commodities futures, which measures the overall direction of commodity sectors and the index is calculated by Thomson Reuters/Jefferies (TR/J CRB). The name of the index changed to the Reuters CRB Index in 2001. Since 1961, The CRB Futures Price Index has been adjusted on a regular basis in order to maintain its relevance. The Index has had 10 adjustments with the last being in 2005. Over the years, commodities have been replaced by more liquid and significant contracts. The last (10th) revision set up monthly rebalancing and rollover schedules. Currently “RJ/CRB" Index takes into account the prices of 19 commodity futures contracts. ICE Futures U.S. is the exclusive marketplace for futures and options contracts on the Reuters Jefferies/CRB Index. Weighting Factors: A four tiered approachThese 19 commodities are weighted on a 4-tiered grouping system designed to reflect the significance of each commodity.
Group I Petroleum productGroup I includes only petroleum products – W.T.I. crude oil, heating oil and unleaded gasoline which are the most liquid, widely followed and economically significant commodities futures contracts traded globally and historically have contributed meaningful return. In order to reflect the critical role of petroleum in the global economy and maintain the diversified nature of the Reuters CRB Index, the Index assigns a fixed weighting of 33%.Group II Highly Liquid CommoditiesGroup II in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index consists of seven highly liquid commodities. Group III Liquid CommoditiesThis group of four commodities is also highly significant and liquid but slightly lower level than those in Group II. These commodities help further the goals of diversification, broad representation and liquidity of the Index. Group IV Diversifying CommoditiesThis final group of five commodities provides meaningful diversification to the Index, bolstering the exposure to the Softs, Grains, Industrial Metals, Meats and Precious Metals markets. Importance
• The CRB Index can be used as a leading indicator of inflation which causes commodities to increase in price. Therefore, an increase in the futures prices of a group of commodities indicates a potential increase in the general price level of an economy.
• The CRB index is good indication of market sentiment because it is monitored and updated by market participants throughout the day.
• The CRB Index can be used as an investment tool. Investors can invest in a commodity index such as the CRB index directly which would provide them exposure to a basket of commodities.
• The CRB Index trades on the New York Board of Trade at a contract size of USD 500.
• Generally commodity prices move opposite to bond prices. This is because inflation causes commodities to increase in price while devaluating the price of bonds. This is one of the reasons that the CRB is so closely watched by both bond and commodity traders.
-8.29
-2.32
-1.23
-0.48
-0.35
-0.21
-0.18
-0.04
0.21
0.61
0.62
0.76
0.82
0.83
0.90
1.28
-10.00 -8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00
GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE (AKOLA)
CORIANDER (KOTA)
SUGAR (KOLKATA)
WHEAT (DELHI)
SOYABEAN (INDORE)
JEERA (UNJHA)
TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)
MUSTARD (JAIPUR)
GUAR SEED (JODHPUR)
PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)
RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)
GUAR GUM (JODHPUR)
COTTON (KADI)
CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)
BARLEY (JAIPUR)
CURRENCY
Currency Table
Currency Pair Open High Low Close
USD/INR 64.82 65.09 64.78 65.03
EUR/INR 76.55 76.63 76.47 76.48
GBP/INR 86.16 86.32 85.82 85.86
JPY/INR 58.04 58.04 58.00 58.00
News Flows of last week
16th Oct Germany's Wholesale Price Inflation at 5-month high
16th Oct China's Inflation slowed; Producer price inflation at 6-month high
17th Oct UK inflation highest since 2012
17th Oct Euro zone inflation steady at 1.5%
17th Oct U.S. Import Prices rose 0.7% in September
17th Oct U.S. Homebuilder Confidence unexpectedly improves in October
EUR/INR (OCT) contract closed at 76.48 on 17th October'17. The contract made its high of 76.63 on 16th October'17 and a low of 76.47 on 17th October'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 76.96.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.55.One can sell below 76.50 for a target of 75.50 with the stop loss of 77.00.
(* NSE Currency future, Source: Spider, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Tuesday (5.00 PM IST)
Market Stance
Indian Rupee began the Diwali week on a positive and tested three week high
against the dollar helped by extremely bullish macro indicators. The overall
forex market sentiment got a boost from upbeat export data and narrowing of
trade deficit coupled with softening inflation. The record rally in domestic
equities too helped the rupee. However, in later part of the week gains were
seen wiped off as local unit settled the week with some negative returns on
back of firm dollar overseas. The dollar strengthened to a one-week high as
against a basket of major currencies supported by a rise in Treasury yields
following a report that US President Donald Trump was edging towards
choosing a hawk as the next head of the Federal Reserve.
EUR/INR
USD/INR (OCT) contract closed at 65.03 on 16th October'17. The contract made its high of 65.09 on 17th October'17 and a low of 64.78 on 16th October'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 65.15.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.11. One can sell below 65.05 for the target of 64.50 with the stop loss of 65.35
GBP/INR (OCT) contract closed at 85.86 on 17th October'17. The contract made its high of 86.32 on 16th October'17 and a low of 85.82 on 17th October'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 86.35.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.57. One can sell below 85.75 for a target of 84.75 with the stop loss of 86.25.
JPY/INR (OCT) contract closed at 58.00 on 17th October'17. The contract made its high of 58.04 on 16th October'17 and a low of 58.00 on 17th October'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 58.14.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.77. One can sell below 57.80 for a target of 56.80 with the stop loss of 58.30
USD/INRTechnical Recommendation
Economic gauge for the next week
Date Currency Event Previous
22nd Oct EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech -24th Oct EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI 58.124th Oct EUR Markit Services PMI 55.825th Oct GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.325th Oct GBP Inflation Report Hearings -25th Oct USD Durable Goods Orders 1.725th Oct USD Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.225th Oct USD New Home Sales Change (MoM) -3.426th Oct EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 026th Oct EUR ECB Deposit Rate Decision -0.426th Oct USD Initial Jobless Claims -26th Oct EUR ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference -27th Oct USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index 127th Oct USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized 3.127th Oct USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) 0.327th Oct USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) 0.9
GBP/INR JPY/INR
14
IPO
IPO NEWS
*Closing price as on 17-10-2017
Company Sector M.Cap (In Rs Cr.) Issue Size (in Rs Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss (from Issue price)
Prataap Snacks Limited FMCG 2776.84 482.00 5-Oct-17 938 1250 1192.00 27.08
SBI Life Insurance Insurance 66605.00 8400.00 3-Oct-17 700 733.30 673.05 -3.85
ICICI Lombard GI Insurance 32207.63 5701.00 27-Sep-17 661 650 718.25 8.66
Capacit'e Infraprojects Ltd Infrastructure 2320.19 400.00 25-Sep-17 250 399 343.55 37.42
Matrimony.com Limited Online Matchmaking 1960.43 501.00 21-Sep-17 985 985 870.70 -11.60
Dixon Technologies (India) Consumer Durable 3092.00 600.00 18-Sep-17 1766 2725 2651.15 50.12
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* Interest Rate may be revised by company from time to time. Please confirm Interest rates before submitting the application.
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FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES
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INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE
MUTUAL FUND
Tata Mutual Fund announces merger of suspended plans of certain fundsTata Mutual Fund has announced Oct 27 as the record date for the merger of suspended plans of Tata Dynamic Bond Fund, Tata Money Market Fund, Tata Gilt Securities Fund, Tata Mid Cap Fund, Tata Medium Term Fund, Tata Long Term Debt Fund, Tata Liquid Fund and Tata Corporate Bond with the regular/direct plans of the respective funds. The fund house has also approved merger of quarterly dividend plans Tata Gilt Mid Term Fund with the periodic dividend option of the respective fund.
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund changes fund manager for a number of fundsICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has announced the fund management allocation for a number of funds. Accordingly, Mr. Rahul Goswami will be the co fund manager with Mr. Rohan Maru and Ms. Chandni Gupta for ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Plan. Mr. Manish Banthia will be the co fund manager with Mr. Rohan Maru and Mr. Nikhil Kabra for ICICI Prudential Interval Fund - Annual Interval (Plan II, III and IV), ICICI Prudential Interval Fund - Quarterly Interval Plan II, ICICI Prudential Interval Fund - Series VI - Annual Interval Plan – C and D, ICICI Prudential Interval Fund - Series VII - Annual Interval Plan – C and ICICI Prudential Interval Fund IV - Quarterly Interval Plan B. The changes are applicable with immediate effect.
AMFI: SIP inflow rose to all time high in Sep 2017Data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) showed that the mutual fund industry has received an average monthly inflow of Rs. 5,223 crore through Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) for the Jul-Sep 2017. In the preceding quarter, the average monthly SIP inflow was Rs. 4,532 crore. The monthly inflows in mutual funds through SIP reached an all-time high of Rs. 5,516 crore in Sep 2017. Data showed that the industry mopped up Rs. 15,669 crore in the Jul-Sep period of FY18 through SIPs, registering a growth of 48.82% an inflow of Rs. 10,529 crore in the same period last fiscal.
Mutual funds add 8.8 lakh accounts in SeptemberThe industry which had 92.31 lakh SIP accounts in May 2016, has registered 1.28 crore accounts by March 2017, and 1.66 crore by September this year. As per data from AMFI, the industry has added 8.8 lakh SIP accounts every month on an average in the first six months of the current year, with an average SIP size of Rs 3,300 per account. The average ticket size per SIP was Rs 2,322 in March 2014, which rose to Rs 3,121 in March 2017. Gold ETFs register Rs 388 crore outflows in April-September 2017 . Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued to lose sheen as an investment class as investors pulled out Rs 388 crore from these instruments in April-September 2017. Trading in gold ETF segment has been tepid during the last four financial years. It witnessed outflows of Rs 775 crore in 2016-17, Rs 903 crore in 2015-16, Rs 1,475 crore in 2014-15 and Rs 2,293 crore in 2013-14. On the other hand, equity and equity-linked saving scheme (ELSS) saw an infusion of more than Rs 80,000 crore during the first six months (April-September) of the current financial year. This included an investment of close to Rs 19,000 crore in the last month alone. According to the latest data available with Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi), a net sum of Rs 388 crore was pulled out in 14 gold-linked ETFs during April-September period this year. The outflow meant assets under management (AUM) of gold funds plunged to Rs 5,148 crore at September-end from Rs 5,480 crore at the end of March. Withdrawal of Rs 66 crore was seen in April this year, Rs 71 crore in May, Rs 81 crore in June, Rs 38 crore in July, Rs 58 crore in August and another Rs 74 crore in September .
Mutual funds' AUM from smaller towns rises 38% to Rs 3.8 lakh crore The contribution of the country's smaller towns -- beyond top-15 cities (B15) -- to mutual funds ' assets base reached to Rs 3.8 lakh crore at September-end, a sharp surge of 38 per cent from the year-ago level. Mutual Funds ' assets under management (AUM) from B15 locations grew from Rs 2.74 lakh crore in September 2016 to Rs 3.79 lakh crore at the end of the last month, ICRA said in a note. Awareness campaigns by asset management companies (AMCs) and industry body Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) have been the growth drivers. Currently, B15 accounts for 17.7 per cent of the total assets of the industry. In September, the share of direct plans in B15 towns stood at 21 per cent compared to 46.1 per cent in T15 cities. B15 cities are those which are beyond these top 15 cities -- New Delhi (including NCR), Mumbai (including Thane & Navi Mumbai), Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, Baroda, Chandigarh, Hyderabad, Jaipur, Kanpur, Lucknow, Panjim, Pune and Surat. The assets base of the Indian mutual fund industry, comprising 43 active players, came in at Rs 20.40 lakh crore in September as against Rs 20.59 lakh crore in August. However, the total folio count at the end of September stood at 6.20 crore, two per cent higher than August. The growth was mainly driven by addition of 9.24 lakh new folios to the equity category (including Equity Linked Savings Scheme) and 2.16 lakh new folios to the balanced segment. However, folio count fell by 5,564 and 2,259 in Gold ETFs and Fund of Funds investing overseas, respectively, from August-end levels.
NEW FUND OFFER
Scheme Name Indiabulls Tax Savings Fund - Regular Plan (G)
Fund Type Open Ended
Fund Class Growth
Opens on 21-Sep-2017
Closes on 20-Dec-2017
Investment Objective To generate long-term capital appreciation from a diversified portfolio of predominantly equity and equity-related Securities.
Min. Investment Rs. 5000
Fund Manager Malay Shah / Sumit Bhatnagar
Scheme Name UTI Long Term Advantage Fund - Series VI - Regular Plan (G)
Fund Type Close Ended
Fund Class Growth
Opens on 05-Oct-2017
Closes on 05-Jan-2018
Investment Objective The investment objective of the scheme is to provide medium to long term capital appreciation along with income tax benefit.
Min. Investment Rs. 500
Fund Manager Lalit Nambiar
17
Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 17/10/2017Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%
MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
Mirae Asset Tax Saver Fund - Reg - G 15.92 28-Dec-2015 526.46 5.08 17.29 30.89 N.A 29.38 1.96 0.94 0.22 64.19 29.63 3.76 2.41
IDFC Tax Advantage (ELSS) Fund - Reg - G 54.61 26-Dec-2008 661.74 5.79 16.50 29.44 19.00 21.24 1.91 0.86 0.13 53.32 28.67 13.05 4.96
Motilal Oswal MOSt Focused Long Term F - Reg - G 17.12 21-Jan-2015 597.63 4.12 11.76 27.70 N.A 21.68 1.90 0.82 0.21 62.30 30.73 N.A 6.96
Principal Tax Savings Fund 206.28 31-Mar-1996 345.00 4.95 15.61 27.42 17.82 17.29 2.22 1.07 0.15 52.59 38.86 5.28 3.27
L&T Tax Advantage Fund - Reg - G 53.97 27-Feb-2006 2445.64 4.89 12.49 26.73 17.90 15.58 1.84 0.88 0.14 52.68 35.25 2.40 9.67
Aditya Birla Sun Life Tax Relief 96 - G 30.07 06-Mar-2008 3761.41 6.67 15.61 24.88 20.12 12.12 1.78 0.83 0.11 40.59 57.90 0.18 1.34
Aditya Birla Sun Life Tax Plan - Growth 37.69 03-Oct-2006 576.94 6.68 15.44 24.55 19.38 12.76 1.75 0.81 0.11 39.45 57.47 0.17 2.91
TAX Fund Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
DSP BlackRock Natural Res. & New Energy F - Reg - G 36.39 25-Apr-2008 274.18 15.56 19.72 42.80 27.93 14.59 2.37 0.94 0.53 78.12 12.06 0.53 9.29
L&T Emerging Businesses Fund - Reg - G 25.73 12-May-2014 1503.08 5.62 17.40 38.56 27.63 31.67 2.15 0.84 0.32 0.96 54.62 26.76 17.66
IDFC Focused Equity Fund - Reg - G 38.12 16-Mar-2006 335.06 5.40 21.18 36.91 14.82 12.23 1.89 0.90 0.16 45.17 27.72 5.71 21.40
IDFC Sterling Equity Fund - Reg - G 53.08 07-Mar-2008 1598.83 6.16 15.93 34.33 19.87 18.95 2.18 0.89 0.20 25.32 50.52 16.12 8.04
L&T Midcap Fund - Reg - Growth 140.44 09-Aug-2004 1146.75 5.08 15.74 33.79 25.32 22.17 1.99 0.79 0.24 22.12 51.28 8.66 17.94
Reliance Small Cap Fund - Growth 41.34 16-Sep-2010 4301.13 6.39 13.43 33.47 24.09 22.16 2.38 0.91 0.24 3.12 40.43 46.08 10.37
Aditya Birla Sun Life Pure Value Fund - G 62.76 27-Mar-2008 1540.35 15.33 17.99 31.86 23.85 21.17 2.37 0.99 0.25 28.40 55.93 8.63 7.05
EQUITY (Diversified) Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Annualised
Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Years) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Franklin India Dynamic Accrual Fund - G 59.73 05-Mar-1997 2702.15 11.31 7.39 7.04 9.62 9.65 10.56 9.05 9.88 0.22 2.70 9.95
Franklin India Income Opportunities F - G 20.06 11-Dec-2009 3149.77 10.16 7.29 7.18 9.61 9.60 9.43 9.26 12.91 0.11 2.08 9.76
BOI AXA Corporate Credit Spectrum F - Reg - G 12.90 27-Feb-2015 1245.09 9.64 6.32 5.05 9.61 9.56 N.A 10.14 7.68 0.38 2.40 10.23
UTI Dynamic Bond Fund - Reg - Growth 19.95 23-Jun-2010 1619.40 11.05 -2.89 -1.30 7.96 9.25 10.60 9.89 27.03 0.09 7.01 7.61
Franklin India Corporate Bond Oppor. F - G 17.54 07-Dec-2011 6720.71 11.05 7.63 7.21 9.09 9.21 9.40 10.05 10.72 0.13 2.48 9.94
Baroda Pioneer Credit Opportunities F - Reg - G 13.14 23-Jan-2015 828.18 9.94 6.33 5.46 8.90 9.16 N.A 10.50 8.42 0.33 2.90 8.23
Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond F - Reg - G 12.61 17-Apr-2015 3296.88 10.27 5.47 5.08 9.41 9.05 N.A 9.71 11.34 0.20 2.97 8.89
INCOME FUND
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Years) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Franklin India STIP - Growth 3570.33 31-Jan-2002 8574.52 11.79 8.17 7.44 9.96 9.81 9.39 8.43 12.87 0.11 2.52 9.82
Aditya Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan - Reg - G 21.48 25-Mar-2009 11101.30 10.80 5.11 4.88 9.26 8.11 9.94 9.33 13.38 0.14 4.16 8.73
Aditya Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond F - Ret - DAP 20.94 08-Apr-2009 12881.00 12.83 -4.71 -3.20 8.89 4.78 10.29 9.05 35.54 0.04 16.61 7.55
Kotak Flexi Debt Scheme - Reg - G 21.98 27-May-2008 1371.85 10.41 3.44 2.18 8.85 7.32 9.74 8.74 20.88 0.12 4.67 7.62
L&T Short Term Income Fund - Reg - G 18.24 04-Dec-2010 840.20 10.11 7.08 6.97 8.62 8.96 9.45 9.14 6.46 0.32 1.76 8.27
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt F - Reg - G 19.61 01-Jan-2010 9412.18 10.87 0.20 2.33 8.57 7.76 9.74 9.02 17.64 0.13 N.A 7.19
Aditya Birla Sun Life Treasury Optimizer Plan - DAP 201.78 22-Jun-2009 8134.43 10.89 4.01 3.74 8.52 6.87 9.82 8.80 17.78 0.11 3.71 7.24
SHORT TERM FUND Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
Reliance RSF - Balanced - Growth 53.59 08-Jun-2005 8133.18 3.10 12.21 20.25 14.43 14.54 1.50 0.08 55.86 9.54 1.50 33.10
Mirae Asset Prudence Fund - Reg - G 13.35 29-Jul-2015 701.41 3.59 10.97 19.76 N.A 13.87 1.48 0.08 63.68 7.75 0.76 27.80
ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 124.39 03-Nov-1999 17222.40 2.72 9.02 18.24 14.71 15.06 1.44 0.09 53.69 11.44 0.86 34.02
L&T India Prudence Fund - Reg - Growth 25.55 07-Feb-2011 6154.21 1.61 8.45 18.11 15.68 15.04 1.38 0.06 45.41 18.14 3.04 33.41
HDFC Balanced Fund - Growth 144.49 11-Sep-2000 14268.40 1.35 9.21 17.27 15.07 16.89 1.44 0.07 45.13 20.51 1.58 32.78
Aditya Birla Sun Life Balanced 95 - G 750.33 10-Feb-1995 10453.30 3.86 9.45 16.61 15.39 20.95 1.46 0.07 47.03 22.57 0.45 29.94
UTI Balanced Fund - Growth 166.31 20-Jan-1995 3316.86 2.62 8.92 16.61 12.53 16.13 1.42 0.06 44.06 19.44 5.17 31.32
BALANCED
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