wireless internet caucus - ctia - the wireless association
TRANSCRIPT
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Wireless Metrics
Dr. Robert F. RocheCTIA-The Wireless Association
March 21, 2011
Wireless Internet Caucus
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Metrics Focus
CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
• Sample: US Wireless Carriers• Measures: Voice, Data, SMS & Text, MMS,
ARPU, Devices, Subscribers• 2H2010 reported results reflect 95.5% of total
estimated subscriber connections
Review Survey Metrics
Report on Latest Survey Results
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Review Cross-Carrier MetricsSurvey includes metrics related to:• Revenues:
Requests total data revenues, as well as:– Total revenues from data-only plans using dongles or laptop-embedded
modems for the six month period. – Total revenues for data services on Smartphones and wireless-enabled PDAs
for the six-month period ending.– Total revenues from data service subscriptions for the six-month period.
• Traffic: measures such asRequests SMS / Text message (including IM) and MMS message volumes.Requests number of MB on the networks for the six month period.
• Usage & Capability measures such as:Requests number of data-capable devices; SMS-capable devices; web-capable
devices; PDAs / Smartphones; and wireless-enabled laptops, netbooks, tablets, and wireless modems on networks.
Request for number of machine-to-machine (M2M) units active on networks – not currently reportable.
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
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Six-Month & Annual Wireless Service Revenues
INDUSTRY• Total six-month industry revenues = $80.8 billion 2H10
–up 5.4% from $76.7 billion in 2H09.• Total 2010 annual industry revenues = $159.9 billion,
–up 4.8% from $152.6 billion for year 2009.
DATA ONLY• Total six-month wireless data revenues = $25.4 billion,
–up 15% from $22.1 billion in 2H09.• Total 2010 annual wireless data revenues = $50.1 billion,
–up 20.8% from $41.5 billion for year 2009.
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
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$24,645,365
$27,820,655
$30,905,721
$34,410,514
$36,707,086
$39,801,101
$41,384,171
$46,239,922
$49,275,671
$52,845,539
$55,689,208
$57,849,013
$60,450,669
$65,006,156
$67,887,668
$70,981,636
$72,728,764
$75,355,406
$75,848,319
$76,703,534
$79,109,620
$80,820,028
$105,657
$105,559
$175,270
$315,532
$411,454
$493,250
$699,764
$1,158,300
$2,041,090
$2,559,441
$3,790,579
$4,791,204
$6,460,560
$8,756,174
$10,532,277
$12,696,252
$14,784,297
$17,536,852
$19,464,909
$22,045,717
$24,786,529
$25,357,482
$0
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
$60,000,000
$70,000,000
$80,000,000
$90,000,000
Jun-00
Dec-00
Jun-01
Dec-01
Jun-02
Dec-02
Jun-03
Dec-03
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Thou
sand
s
Total Wireless Industry Revenues Data Service Revenues
Six-Month Total Wireless Service and Data Revenues
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
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Annual Wireless Data Revenues Are Up 20.8%
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
$904,704 $1,858,064
$4,600,531
$8,581,783
$15,216,735
$23,228,529
$32,321,149
$41,510,625
$50,144,011
$0
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
$60,000,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
in T
hous
ands
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99.9%
99.8%
99.6%
99.6%
99.4%
99.1%
98.9%
98.8%
98.3%
97.5%
95.9%
95.2%
93.2%
91.7%
89.3%
86.5%
84.5%
82.1%
79.7%
76.7%
74.3%
71.3%
68.7%
68.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jun-99
Dec-99
Jun-00
Dec-00
Jun-01
Dec-01
Jun-02
Dec-02
Jun-03
Dec-03
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Non-Data ARPU Data ARPU
Wireless Data as a % of ARPU Trended
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
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Traffic Measures increase year-over-year
–SMS / Text messaging (includes IM):• Monthly volume of 187.7b up 23% year-over-year (from 152.7b)• Six-month volume of 1.068T up 30% year-over-year (from 822.8b)• Annual volume of 2.052T up 31.3% year-over-year (from 1.563T)
–MMS:• Monthly volume of 4.3b down 15% year-over-year (from 5.1b)• Six-month volume of 24.5b up 1.3% year-over-year (from 24.2b)• Annual volume of 56.6b up 64% year-over-year (from 34.5b)
–Voice:• Six-month volume of 1.104T down 1.4% year-over-year (from 1.119T), Annual volume of 2.241T down 1.5% year-over-year (from 2.275T)
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
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Traffic Measures increase year-over-year
–Data Volume
• Six-month volume of MB on networks: 226.5 billion MB, up 110% year-over-year from 107.8 billion MB as of YE 2009.
• Six-month volume of MB from Smartphones / PDAs on networks: 135.2 billion MB, up 304% from 33.44 billion MB as of YE 2009.
• Six-month volume of MB from laptops, tablets, netbooks and wireless broadband modems on networks: 73.3 billion MB, up 26.8% from 57.82 billion MB as of YE 2009.
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
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0
20,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
80,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
120,000,000,000
140,000,000,000
160,000,000,000
180,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10
Reported Traffic Up 38% Year-Over-Year
Traffic Measures –Monthly SMS / Text Traffic (includes IM)
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
Over 187 billion messages per month
0
200,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
600,000,000,000
800,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
1,200,000,000,000
Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10
Reported Six-Month Traffic Grows 30% Year-Over-Year
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Traffic Measures –Six-Month Texting Traffic (includes IM)
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
Almost 2.1 trillion text messages in 2010Up 31% from 2009
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0
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10
Reported MMS Traffic in Final Month of Survey Down 15% Year-over-Year
Traffic Measures –Monthly MMS Traffic
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
Over 4 billion MMS per month
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0
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
35,000,000,000
Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10
Reported Six-Month MMS Traffic Up 1.3% Year-Over-Year, but . . .
Traffic Measures –Six-Month MMS Traffic
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
Annual MMS of 56.6 billion Up 54% over 2009
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585 675820 858 941 1,014 1,104 1,122 1,081 1,156 1,119 1,138 1,103
2533
49 6594
147
216385
620
740 823983 1,069
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2
3
3
6
9
1024
32 25
$53.78 $52.19 $50.70 $49.39 $50.01 $49.81 $50.14 $49.51 $49.87 $48.89 $48.37 $48.79 $48.12
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10
Billi
ons
of M
essa
ges
/ Min
utes
Semi-annual Voice Traffic Semi-annual Text Traffic Semi-annual MMS Traffic Total ARPU (including toll & roaming)
Semi-Annual Traffic Measures –Voice & Data
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
In latest 6 months:1.1+ billion MOU1.06+ billion text messages24+ billion MMS
1,4951,798
2,119 2,203 2,275 2,241
81
159
363
1,005
1,5632,052
1
3
6
15
35
57
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Bill
ions
of M
OU
s / M
essa
ges
Minutes and Messages as a Measure of Wireless Usage
MOUs Text Messages MMS Messages
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Available Annual Traffic Measures –Voice & Data
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
Excludes traffic generated by web-browsing, game-play, and content upload / downloads
108
161
227
0
50
100
150
200
250
December 2009 June 2010 December 2010
Billi
ons
Six Month MB Volumes 16
Total Reported MB of Traffic – 6 Month Measures
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
Total data traffic grew 110% year-over-year
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Consumer Metrics –Total Estimated Subscriber Connections
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
Connections = 96% Population Penetration
109,478,031
119,880,066
140,766,842
158,721,981
182,140,362
207,896,198
233,040,781
255,395,599
270,333,881
285,646,191
302,859,674
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10
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Consumer Metrics –Devices and Users
Based on sequential questions:•289.2 mm total reported subscriber connections (overall survey)
•247.2 mm SMS-capable devices (up from 238.4mm)– on data survey respondents’ networks
•270 mm data-capable handsets (up from 257mm)– on data survey respondents’ networks
•242 mm web-capable handsets (up from 238.4mm) – on data survey respondents’ networks
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
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Consumer Metrics –Devices and Users
Based on sequential questions:•200.1 mm SMS customers (up from 181.8 mm)
– on respondents’ networks
•140.5 mm MMS customers (up from 118.5 mm)– on respondents’ networks
•78.2 mm Smartphones & PDAs (up from 49.8 mm)– on respondents’ networks
•13.6 mm wireless-enabled laptops, tablets, netbooks, & wireless modems (up from 11.9 mm) – on respondents’ networks
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
2020
Another View of Consumer Metrics – Devices
Source: CTIA Semi-Annual Wireless Survey
96%
93%
85%
84%
27%
5%
ALL
Data
SMS
WEB
Smartphones
Laptops / modems
Based on sequential questions:• 289.2 mm total reported subscribers (overall survey) (302.8 mm– Estimated total)(Year-to-Year change)
• 270 mm data-capable handsets – (up 13.5 million=up 5.3%)
• 247.2 mm SMS-capable devices – (up 8.8 million=up 3.7%)
• 242 mm web-capable handsets – (up 3.6 million=up 1.5%)
• 78.2 mm Smartphones & PDAs – (up 28.4 million=up 57%)
• 13.6 mm wireless-enabled laptops, tablets, netbooks, & wireless broadband modems – (up 1.7 million=up 14.2%)
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Note, while we ask for the following categories of devices:• SMS-capable devices• Web-capable devices• Data-capable devices• Smartphones & PDAs• Wireless-enabled laptops, tablets, netbooks, & wireless modems
and• Machine-to-Machine units [not reportable at this time]
•We don’t ask for “connected devices” as such, thus our figures for the above subcategories won’t necessarily square with any independently-reported “connected device” counts.
Other Metrics-related Observations