winter’simpactonrailroadopera5ons...
TRANSCRIPT
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Winter’s Impact on Railroad Opera5ons Fact and Fantasy
Paul Miller RAC Rail Day
02 December 2014 Ottawa ON
In winter….
• Railroads affected along with other outdoor operators • However, beyond a 9pping point:
– Certain railroad technologies are addi9onally, uniquely impacted
– These are fundamental to railroad efficiency • Tough, structural issues
– Significant technological improvements over 9me – Efforts, investment con9nue
• Expect technological gains, but not breakthroughs • Supply chain collabora9on, innova9on, op9onality
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Snow is an issue…
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…but cold is the main concern
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What makes a railroad, a railroad?
Efficient, low-cost service providers, based on fundamental railway technology
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• Steel wheel on steel rail
§ High adhesion, low rolling resistance
§ Moving 1 ton of freight 200 km on 1 litre of fuel
• North America-wide equipment interchange
§ Interoperable air brake system
• Long trains of heavy cars
The shape of recent winters
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2013/2014 was indeed the winter of a lifetime
• 2011/2112 relatively easy
• 2013/2014 much more harsh
§ “Polar Vortex”
§ Highest number of US flight cancellations in over 25 years
§ Thunder Bay service starting a month later due to widespread ice coverage on the Great Lakes
§ Over 7,000 properties in Winnipeg at risk of frozen water and/or sewer pipes
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Source: RAC
Efficient but Winter Suscep5ble Technologies: Steel Rail
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
2009-‐2010 2010-‐2011 2011-‐2012 2012-‐2013 2013-‐2014 2009-‐2014 Average
% Increase -‐ Winter v
s. Non
-‐Winter
Canadian Class 1s -‐ Rail Breaks Western Region -‐ Winter vs. Non-‐Winter
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Efficient but Winter Suscep5ble Technologies: Steel Wheels and Air Brakes
Source: RAC
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
2009-‐2010 2010-‐2011 2011-‐2012 2012-‐2013 2013-‐2014 2009-‐2014 Average
% Increase -‐ Winter v
s. Non
-‐Winter
Canadian Class 1s -‐ Cars Set Out On Line System Wide -‐ Winter vs. Non-‐Winter
Efficient but Winter Suscep5ble Technologies Long Trains
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10
The Downward Spirals Compounding Effects
On Line of Road In Terminals
Across Supply Chains Across North American Network
Downward Spirals
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Trains must reduce length Increased car
count plus increased track, lead occupancy Trains must
requalify air brake system Increased
congestion Reduced throughput /
efficiency Increased ITD
Blows back onto line operations
Slower trains
Increased density on a
given territory More meets
More recrews
Sidings out of service
Further reduced train speed
In Terminals
On the Network
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Service Outputs Empty equipment supply
Source: RAC
-‐35%
-‐30%
-‐25%
-‐20%
-‐15%
-‐10%
-‐5%
0% 2009-‐2010 2010-‐2011 2011-‐2012 2012-‐2013 2013-‐2014 2009-‐2014 Average
% Decrease -‐ W
inter v
s. Non
-‐Winter
Canadian Class 1 -‐ Car Order Fulfillment Rate Western Region -‐ Winter vs. Non-‐Winter
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Service Outputs Movement of traffic
Source: RAC
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Service Outputs Train Speed
Source: RAC
-‐14%
-‐12%
-‐10%
-‐8%
-‐6%
-‐4%
-‐2%
0% 2009-‐2010 2010-‐2011 2011-‐2012 2012-‐2013 2013-‐2014 2009-‐2014 Average
% Decrease -‐ W
inter v
s. Non
-‐Winter
Canadian Class 1s -‐ Weighted Average Train Speed System Wide -‐ Winter vs. Non-‐Winter
No Easy or Immediate Fixes
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• Limited attention
§ Limited geographies, limited duration
§ Integrated North American industry, limited number of suppliers; R&D focus is on products, processes, and technologies which benefit all railroads, all the time
§ Desirable qualities for winter must be balanced against desirable qualities for 12 months operation --- rail steel toughness vs wear resistance
• Monumental challenge
§ Even when there is industry-wide interest, daunting timeframes and logistics challenges --- eg retrofitting 1.5 million freight cars and 30,000 locomotives for advanced braking systems (ECP)
Future improvements are expected to be incremental in nature
R&D has been underway and will continue with the full support of the railway industry. But, by revenue, Canada’s Class I railways make up roughly
20% of the North American Class I industry.
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In conclusion…
• Beyond a 9pping point – railways are uniquely challenged by winter
• Structural issues related to basic
railroad technologies • Breakthroughs must come from
supply chain ini9a9ves and collabora9on