Jacques WERY

Grappling with Complex Systems: the water-energy-food nexus experience

STELLENBOSCH, SOUTH AFRICA10 - 12 OCTOBER, 2018

Win more, lose less:

Capturing synergies betweenSDGs through agricultural research

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Win more, lose less:Capturing synergies betweenSDGs through agricultural research

Thinking, Assessing and Designing Agri-food systems in a nexus

• Derive the nexus from the goals (SDG) food-water-energy (+ climate change mitigation+ employment….)

• Different uses of Nexus analysis for the CGIAR (were are we? Do we have a plan?):

• For identification of research priorities and interdisciplinarity (‘Thinking”)

• For Ex ante or ex post assessment of research products (“Assessing”)

• As a set of objectives to fulfil when developing these research products(‘Designing”) (e.g. ‘breeding in the nexus’).

• The time dimension is lacking:

• not the same for all interactions

• pathway dependency of sustainability (accept tradeoffs but prepare synergies) (e.g.irrigation of wheat) go beyond the “temporary solution”

• “we need an inventory of water saving solutions” assessed in the nexus (Sridharan et al.).

• “typology of trade-offs for wastewater Use in Agriculture” (M. Kurian)

(Sridharan et al.)

• A framework to document the interactions.

Win more, lose less:Capturing synergies betweenSDGs through agricultural research

Integrated Modelling for exploration of trade-offs and synergies

• ‘Integrate’ across scales, criteria and domains (Agri, Food, Hydro, Socio…)

• ‘Models’ because we need quantification and simulation (options and context)…but we may start orend with qualitative approaches (e.g. Nexus typologies; M. Kurian)

• A lot of research on methods and applications … not so much integrated across disciplines (hydrology,economy, agronomy, industrial ecology…..)

• Not (yet) much demonstration of nexus simulations in agri-food systems in drylands should includerisk analysis and risk management linked to climate variability and imperfect knowledge of farmers(e.g. soil water holding capacity)

• What I have learned after 10 years of Integrated Modelling of Agricultural Systems in Europe:

• How far should we go into details (crop management…) and diversity (e.g. soils, farms…)• Modelling Platforms vs. Ad Hoc modelling chains (derived from a solid conceptual framework)• The major investment is in data collection and maintenance (e.g. irrigation, crop rotations)

“complementarity with “place based observation” (M Kurian) on the ground and from satellite• A long term investment in a dedicated interdisciplinary group (open source is not enough)• When and how to involve experts, stakeholders and decision makers in the modelling process ?• Models provide insights … but partial …and do not provide the solution.• It’s a challenge to communicate on behaviour of complex systems

Win more, lose less:Capturing synergies betweenSDGs through agricultural research

We probably know more than we think on the trade-offs and how to limit them

Food Production

Labour

Water Energy

Current

Target

The example of Nitrogen Fertilisation in Rainfed Wheat in the Drylands

N= f(water limited yield)

No ploughing

Mechanized sowing and harvesting

Mulching

Win more, lose less:Capturing synergies betweenSDGs through agricultural research

Still left with the four questions?

1. Research design Think, assess and design in nexus derived from the SDGs

2. Indicators to measure progress and success scales, data and models

3. Prioritization of research and investment Integrated Modelling

4. Aligning with users demand Understanding and Communicating Complexity