wilson o r g a n i s a t i o n. wilson o r g a n i s a t i o n peter connolly development director...

Wilson O R G A N I S A T I O N


Peter Connolly

Development Director

Blueprint


What are we?• A Property Development Company that specialises in regeneration but different and distinctive

• A different structure

• A different remit

• A different approach


The Blueprint Structure

• A Property Regeneration Partnership formed in May 2005 • Igloo, EMDA, EP as shareholders

• Igloo as an ethical regeneration fund (first of its kind)

• A true Public Private Partnership – no one dominant partner

• Shared investment, ownership, risk, profit and control


Igloo Regeneration

Igloo is described by the United Nations as the World’s firstsustainable property investor and is the only substantial socially responsible real estate investment vehicle in the UK.

Igloo is developing a real estate investment portfolio founded on an SRI policy.


Socially Responsible Investment21 criteria across 3 themes

RegenerationRegeneration - investing in the regeneration of the social, physicaland economic fabric of urban neighbourhoods;Environmental Environmental - investing in schemes that demonstrate theenvironmentally sustainable use of resources during construction andsubsequent occupation; andUrban designUrban design - investing in an urban renaissance through the designof buildings and public realm that are distinctive, vibrant and urbanin character.Health and WellbeingHealth and Wellbeing – Ensuring that the people that will live, work and dwell in the places we create are right at the centre of the design.


Igloo Regeneration

Igloo currently has 23 projects across its direct development and partnership portfolios with a completed development value of £2.5bn creating 8,500 homes and 10,000 jobs on around 250 acres of brownfield land.

Igloo continues to market for further equity and is actively assessing new development opportunities in edge of city-core locations within the UK's Top 20 centres.


Creates – A Potent MixBrings together public sector influence and resource with private sector money, skills and experience.

Generates more money, more people and more expertise to support the East Midland’s regeneration agenda.

A partnership where all can benefit.


The Blueprint Remit

Public benefits, shared profits. Help EMDA / English Partnerships and associated stakeholders to deliver core objectives. Focus on projects where the mainstream private sector might struggle to deliver desired outcomes. Concentration on the regions six Urban Priority Areas.


Commercial Property Market

• Occupier Enquiries remain strong, but expected to tail off

• Funds reducing their exposure to property

• Bank Finance terms tighter.

• Business Rates

• UNCERTAINTY


Residential Property Market• Mortgage Lending Conditions

• City Centre ‘Buy to let investments’

• Family Housing

• Key Workers

• Migrant Populations

• Owner Occupier Demand

• HCA


Derby Opportunities• Cathedral Quarter

• Riverside

• Castleward

• DRI

• Science/Knowledge Park


Leicester Opportunities

• St Georges – Cultural Quarter

• Waterside

• Abbey Meadows

• Science Park

• Station Gateway


Nottingham Opportunities• Extended Eastside

• Bio City and Science Park – QMC Medipark

• Waterside

• Station Gateway

• City Centre – Conversion of existing buildings


Leicester, St George’s – DMC


Nottingham Science Park


Derby – Bold Lane/Sadlergate• Architect design

competition• Sympathetic

design to repair streetscape

• Biodiversity• Natural ventilation

and light• High insulation

and low energy• Real mixed use

community


Derby – Bold Lane/Sadlergate• 45,000 sq ft flexible office

space• 24 apartments• 6 retail/café bar/restaurant

units• Car and cycle parking• Public space• New routes and

connections• Planning application –

September 2007• Completion Spring 2009


“The Blueprint Solution”

Be Innovative and seek opportunities to improve design quality and build distinctive places that reflect our SRI policy ‘Footprint’.

Create places where people want to be.

Seek solutions that will add value to the whole life of the project.

Take a longer term view.


Peter Cochrane

Senior Economic Adviser

RBS Group Economics


Economic words of wisdom from a sage……..

“My friends, as I have discovered myself, there are no disasters, only opportunities………

……. and, indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters”


Talking ourselves into recession?

Source: Factiva

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Early 90s Recession

Asian Financial

Crisis

Dotcom Bubble & Sep 2001

Credit Market Turbulence


Commercial Property has had a rough ride

Source: IPD Monthly Index

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Apr

-05

Jun-

05

Aug

-05

Oct

-05

Dec

-05

Feb

-06

Apr

-06

Jun-

06

Aug

-06

Oct

-06

Dec

-06

Feb

-07

Apr

-07

Jun-

07

Aug

-07

Oct

-07

Dec

-07

Feb

-08

%

Retail

Office

Industrial


Doom in the residential housing market….

Source: Halifax, Bank of England

70k

80k

90k

100k

110k

120k

130k

140k

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mor

tgag

e ap

prov

als

per

mon

th

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

21%

Ann

ual h

ouse

pric

e gr

owth

Approvals (LHS) House Price Growth (RHS)

10 year avg. approvals


Labour market still looks strong in the UK

Source: Datastream

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Apr

-92

Apr

-93

Apr

-94

Apr

-95

Apr

-96

Apr

-97

Apr

-98

Apr

-99

Apr

-00

Apr

-01

Apr

-02

Apr

-03

Apr

-04

Apr

-05

Apr

-06

Apr

-07

%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

'000

s

UK VacanciesUK Unemployment RateE Mids Unemployment Rate


Households are rebuilding their balance sheets

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mortgages

Deposits

Credit Cards

Personal Loans

Source: Bank of England


A weaker pound helps exporters….

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.25/

11/1

998

5/11

/199

9

5/11

/200

0

5/11

/200

1

5/11

/200

2

5/11

/200

3

5/11

/200

4

5/11

/200

5

5/11

/200

6

5/11

/200

7

5/11

/200

8

$ per £

Euro per £

Source: Datastream


3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

%

Market Expectations

The Bank of England is cutting interest rates….

Source: Datastream


-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

May

-03

Aug

-03

Nov

-03

Feb

-04

May

-04

Aug

-04

Nov

-04

Feb

-05

May

-05

Aug

-05

Nov

-05

Feb

-06

May

-06

Aug

-06

Nov

-06

Feb

-07

May

-07

Aug

-07

Nov

-07

Feb

-08

CPI

Food & Drink

But inflation beginning to bite ….

Source: Datastream


3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

May

-06

Aug

-06

Nov

-06

Feb

-07

May

-07

Aug

-07

Nov

-07

Feb

-08

May

-08

%

Base Rate

3 Month Libor

And cuts not impacting LIBOR much anyway

Source: Datastream


Real Estate in the US lurches downwards

Source: Datastream

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

%OFHEO

Case-Schiller


Global Commodity prices show no sign of retreating

Source: Datastream

0

100

200

300

400

500

600M

ay-0

4

Aug

-04

Nov

-04

Feb

-05

May

-05

Aug

-05

Nov

-05

Feb

-06

May

-06

Aug

-06

Nov

-06

Feb

-07

May

-07

Aug

-07

Nov

-07

Feb

-08

May

-08

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Corn Price IndexBrent Crude $


UK Government not in a strong position

Source: Datastream

-60,000

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

£ M

illio

ns


What for the UK?The Labour Market is key to the fortune of the UK Economy in

2008GOOD UGLY

• Plenty of vacancies and some wage inflation keep consumers spending moderately

• Reinforces ongoing demand in the Labour Market

• A “virtuous circle”• Retail property sees decent rental

growth• Overvaluations softened through

increasing income while capital values stabilise

• Mortgage payments continue – only limited forced selling in the residential market

• Stabilising house prices – a soft landing

• Consumer Spending weakens as people worry about house prices and recession

• Tough retail environment triggers some job losses

• Self-fulfilling prophecy – “vicious circle”• Commercial Property rental growth

slumps, leading to double whammy on capital values

• Forced selling and repossessions as mortgages default

• House prices fall sharply following negative demand shock


East Midlands faces more headwinds than most

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

E. Mids Activity UK Activity

35

40

45

50

55

60

Jan-

01

Jul-0

1

Jan-

02

Jul-0

2

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

E. Mids O/S Business

UK O/S Business

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08E. Mids Inputs

UK Inputs

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

E. Mids Emp.

UK Emp.

Source: RBS/NTC Economics


Online registration form: http://www.rbs.com/economics/registration

Website: http://www.rbs.com/economics

Contact us: [email protected]

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This material is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which its distribution would be prohibited.

Whilst this information is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by RBS and RBS makes no representation, express or implied, nor does it accept any responsibility or liability of any kind, with regard to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Unless otherwise stated, any views, opinions, forecasts, valuations, or estimates contained in this material are those solely of the RBS Group’s Group Economics Department, as of the date of publication of this material and are subject to change without notice. Recipients of this material should make their own independent evaluation of this information and make such other investigations as they consider necessary (including obtaining independent financial advice), before acting in reliance on this information.

This material should not be regarded as providing any specific advice. RBS accepts no obligation to provide any advice or recommendations in respect of the information contained in this material and accepts no fiduciary duties to the recipient in relation to this information.

wilson o r g a n i s a t i o n. wilson o r g a n i s a t i o n peter connolly development director...

Documents

t i o n slide

wilson o r g

control slide

different approach slide

credit market turbulence

st georges dmc slide

urban design urban design

new development opportunities