will subsidies drive electric vehicle adoption? measuring ...phev10 vs. hev (toyota prius) subsidy...
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Carnegie Mellon
Will Subsidies Drive Electric Vehicle Adoption? Measuring Consumer Preferences in the U.S. and China
John Paul Helveston1, Yimin Liu4, Elea McDonnel Feit3, Erica Fuchs1, Erica Klampfl4, Jeremy Michalek1,2
Department of Engineering and Public Policy
August 05, 2014 1. Department of Engineering & Public Policy, CMU 2. Department of Mechanical Engineering, CMU 3. Department of MarkeFng, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania 4. Ford Motor Company
(In review at Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice)
John Helveston Carnegie Mellon
China: Oil & Economic Security, Less Pollution, Tech. Leadership
§ China largest car market in the world today: o 16.3 million new cars sold in 2013 o 1/4 new cars in the world are made in China
§ Govt promoting policies to support energy-saving technologies (Zhou et al., 2010)
§ Home to distinct form industrial innovation: often in technology commercialization, redefinition (Brandt & Thun, 2010; Breznitz & Murphee, 2011; Ernst & Naughton, 2008)
§ Debated: despite less stringent requirements (WTO,
1979), can rapidly industrializing nations reduce pollution, industrialize, & lead innovation? (Wheeler, 2001)
§ Opportunity: Electric vehicles
August 05, 2014 2 Subsidies & Consumer Preferences for EVs in China / U.S.
John Helveston Carnegie Mellon 3
EVs: Shift gas to electricity, reduce oil consumption & emissions
Conven&onal Hybrid-‐Electric Plug-‐in Hybrid Electric
Ba8ery Electric
AbbreviaFon CV HEV PHEV BEV
Power Convertor Engine Engine & Motor
Engine & Motor Motor
BaRery Pack -‐-‐ Small Medium Large
Gasoline -‐-‐
Electricity -‐-‐ -‐-‐
ConventionalHybrid-Electric
ü üGasoline
Electricity
Power Convertor Engine MotorEngine &
MotorBattery
Pack- Small Large
ü
Battery Electric
ü
ü
Engine & Motor
Medium
Plug-in Hybrid Electric
CV HEV PHEV BEV
ConventionalHybrid-Electric
ü üGasoline
Electricity
Power Convertor Engine MotorEngine &
MotorBattery
Pack- Small Large
ü
Battery Electric
ü
ü
Engine & Motor
Medium
Plug-in Hybrid Electric
CV HEV PHEV BEV
ConventionalHybrid-Electric
ü üGasoline
Electricity
Power Convertor Engine MotorEngine &
MotorBattery
Pack- Small Large
ü
Battery Electric
ü
ü
Engine & Motor
Medium
Plug-in Hybrid Electric
CV HEV PHEV BEV
August 05, 2014 Subsidies & Consumer Preferences for EVs in China / U.S.
Full Gasoline Full Gasoline Mix No Gasoline
John Helveston Carnegie Mellon 4
EVs are central in tension between national oil security and environmental damage
August 05, 2014 Subsidies & Consumer Preferences for EVs in China / U.S.
Oil Consump&on Emissions
Problem Impact Problem Impact
U.S. Imports 40% from OPEC countries (US EIA 2012) -‐ PHEVs expected to
use about 40 -‐ 60% less petroleum than CVs (ANL 2010) -‐ BEVs use no oil!
20% of GHG, 40% of VOC, 77% of CO, 49% of NOx (US EIA 2012)
Depending on grid mix, PHEVs have potenFal to reduce GHG by 32%
China
Imports 66% from Middle East, West Africa, former Soviet Union (Ma et al., 2012)
Similar, even worse for NOx & CO (Lang et al., 2013)
Large regional variaFon: GHGs may be reduced, but PM2.5 may increase
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
5
10
15
20
25
Year
Milli
on B
arre
ls p
er D
ay
United States
China
Imports
Imports
ConsumptionProduction
Life cycle electricity GHG intensity (g CO2−eq/kWh)0 200 400 600 800 1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Life
cyc
le G
HG
s (g
CO
2−eq
/km
)
BEV
CV
HEV
PHEV30
PHEV60
● ● ● ●Natural gasNatural gasNatural gasNatural gasNatural gasNatural gasNatural gasNatural gasNatural gas CoalCoalCoalCoalCoalCoalCoalCoalCoalLow−carbonLow−carbonLow−carbonLow−carbonLow−carbonLow−carbonLow−carbonLow−carbonLow−carbon
U.S. AverageChina Average
John Helveston Carnegie Mellon 5
Research Questions
§ How do existing preferences shape adoption of electrified vehicles in U.S. & China? o Under what conditions would mainstream adoption
of EVs occur? o What are the implications of existing preferences
for national policy and global technology trajectories?
August 05, 2014 Subsidies & Consumer Preferences for EVs in China / U.S.
John Helveston Carnegie Mellon
Measuring Consumer Preferences
August 05, 2014 6
§ How do you get data on vehicles that don’t exist yet? § Our Approach: Choice-Based Conjoint Surveys
Subsidies & Consumer Preferences for EVs in China / U.S.
John Helveston Carnegie Mellon 7
“Stated Preference” (SP) data from hypothetical survey choices
August 05, 2014 Subsidies & Consumer Preferences for EVs in China / U.S.
John Helveston Carnegie Mellon
●
●
●
●
Beijing
Shanghai
Shenzhen
Chengdu
8
China Fielding: Jul. 16 – Aug. 16, 2012
§ On the ground § Partnered with State Information Center to
field on the ground in China § Targeted 4 major cities: Beijing, Shanghai,
Shenzhen, & Chengdu • Tier 1 cities • Largest car markets • Not rural • Gov’t focus for EVs • Geographically diverse • 35% of 2010 total sales
448 Respondents 15 Choice QuesFons Each 6,720 Choice QuesFons
August 05, 2014 Subsidies & Consumer Preferences for EVs in China / U.S.
John Helveston Carnegie Mellon 9 August 05, 2014
§ Online car buyers identified through short screener survey, compensated $2.00.
§ Auto show car buyers taken at random, compensated with iPod raffle.
U.S. Fielding: Sept. 2012 & Feb. 2013 283 Online Respondents 101 Auto Show Respondents 15 Choice QuesFons Each 5,760 Choice QuesFons
U.S. Sample: 384 Car Respondents
UrbanSuburban Rural
34.7%29.6%35.7%
U.S. Sample: 101 Auto Show Car Respondents
UrbanSuburban Rural
26.3%41.1%32.6%
Auto Show Sample
Full Sample
& Pi8sburgh Auto Show
Subsidies & Consumer Preferences for EVs in China / U.S.
John Helveston Carnegie Mellon
Weights added to match car-buying demographic
August 05, 2014 10
Sample demographics compared to large new car buyer survey by Maritz (supplied by Ford)
U.S.
Our Sample Weighted Sample
Maritz Sample
57.3 (29.3) 74.3 (28.7) 74.8 (27.3)
33.9 (12.7) 51 (14.8) 53.1 (15.4) 0.6 (1.1) 1.4 (1.4) 0.4 (0.8) 1.8 (0.8) 2 (0.7) -‐-‐ 22.9 (10.4) 23.3 (11.4) -‐-‐
11,200 (4,800) 12,500 (4,600) 11,400 (6,400)
2.7 (1.3) 2.7 (1.2) 2.5 (1.2)
7.2 (1.9) 7.9 (2.3) 7.2 (2.3) 35.3% 32.6% 39.3%
44.6% 68.9% 73.5%
72.1% 40.3% 75.0%
52.3% 71.2% 53.7%
4.4% 1.3% -‐-‐ 384 384 161,903
Variable
Household Income
Age
Num Children
Num Vehicles Daily VMT
Annual VMT
Household Size
Years EducaFon
Percent Female
Percent Married
Percent with No Children
Percent College Graduates Percent First Time Buyers
n
China
Our Sample Weighted Sample
Maritz Sample
24.1 (15.7) 26.1 (18) 26.1 (17.6)
33.3 (10.6) 34.8 (7.8) 35.1 (7.8) 0.6 (0.6) 0.7 (0.6) 0.7 (0.6) 0.4 (0.6) 0.5 (0.7) -‐-‐
-‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ 10,600 (6,000)
3.3 (1.1) 3.3 (1.2) 3.2 (1)
5.9 (1.9) 6 (1.8) 5.9 (2) 39.4% 41.1% 28.7%
55.1% 70.2% 85.6%
52.2% 36.5% 36.4%
30.6% 33.1% 34.4%
65.4% 59.2% -‐-‐ 448 448 13,469
Subsidies & Consumer Preferences for EVs in China / U.S.
John Helveston Carnegie Mellon
Quantifying Attribute Tradeoffs with Discrete Choice Models
August 05, 2014 11 Subsidies & Consumer Preferences for EVs in China / U.S.
John Helveston Carnegie Mellon 12
Use random utility model to describe choice behavior
August 05, 2014
=UnjU&lity to person n from choosing alterna&ve j
Goal of inference: Understand how observable product a8ributes influence consumer choices
Es&mated weigh&ng coefficient
Observed a8ributes
= ′β Xnj
independently, idenFcally distributed extreme value
εnjExample:
Xnj εnj Price Color
Brand Custom rims
Fuel Economy Number of cup holders
Unobservables
+εnj j = 1,..., J
Subsidies & Consumer Preferences for EVs in China / U.S.
John Helveston Carnegie Mellon
HEV
PHEV10
PHEV20
PHEV40
BEV75
BEV100
BEV150
15 10 5 0 5 10
WTP ($1,000)
Baseline: CVVehicle Technology
China
U.S.
U.S. more opposed to BEVs than China
13 August 05, 2014
Vehicle Technologies Increasin
g baRery siz
e
• Most Chinese are first-‐Fme car buyers. • Chinese more familiar with plug-‐in vehicles (200 – 300 million e-‐bikes currently on the ground).
U.S. consumers sensiFve to limited electric range (Axsen & Kurani, 2012).
Mean Willingness-‐to-‐Pay ($1,000)
Increasin
g electric ra
nge
Subsidies & Consumer Preferences for EVs in China / U.S.
WTP = βattβ price
John Helveston Carnegie Mellon
Brand, Fuel Economy, & Acceleration Important
14 August 05, 2014
Brand
Performance
Willingness-to-pay ($1,000)
Baseline: CVVehicle Technology
20 10 0 10
HEVPHEV10PHEV20PHEV40
BEV75BEV100BEV150
Willingness-to-pay ($1,000)
Baseline: GermanBrand
20 10 0 10
AmericanJapanese
ChineseSKorean
Willingness-to-pay ($1,000)
Performance
-5 0 10
PHEV Fast Charge AbilityBEV Fast Charge Ability
Reduce Op. Cost by 5 cents / mileReduce 0-60 mph Accel. Time by 4 sec.
ChinaU.S.
Willingness-to-pay ($1,000)
Baseline: CVVehicle Technology
20 10 0 10
HEVPHEV10PHEV20PHEV40
BEV75BEV100BEV150
Willingness-to-pay ($1,000)
Baseline: GermanBrand
20 10 0 10
AmericanJapanese
ChineseSKorean
Willingness-to-pay ($1,000)
Performance
-5 0 10
PHEV Fast Charge AbilityBEV Fast Charge Ability
Reduce Op. Cost by 5 cents / mileReduce 0-60 mph Accel. Time by 4 sec.
ChinaU.S.
Subsidies & Consumer Preferences for EVs in China / U.S.
WTP = βattβ price
John Helveston Carnegie Mellon
Subsidies play an important role in plug-in vehicle attractiveness
15 August 05, 2014
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 PHEV10 vs. HEV (Toyota Prius)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 PHEV20 vs. HEV (Ford C−Max)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 PHEV40 vs. CV (BYD F3)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 PHEV40 vs. CV (Volt vs. Cruze)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 BEV75 vs. CV (Leaf vs. Versa)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 BEV100 vs. CV (Ford Focus)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●Current Subsidies
U.S.China
●
PHEV-‐11 vs. HEV (Toyota Prius)
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 PHEV10 vs. HEV (Toyota Prius)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 PHEV20 vs. HEV (Ford C−Max)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 PHEV40 vs. CV (BYD F3)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 PHEV40 vs. CV (Volt vs. Cruze)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)Pl
ug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 BEV75 vs. CV (Leaf vs. Versa)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 BEV100 vs. CV (Ford Focus)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●Current Subsidies
U.S.China
●
PHEV-‐21 vs. HEV (Ford C-‐Max) 0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 PHEV10 vs. HEV (Toyota Prius)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)Pl
ug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 PHEV20 vs. HEV (Ford C−Max)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 PHEV40 vs. CV (BYD F3)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 PHEV40 vs. CV (Volt vs. Cruze)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 BEV75 vs. CV (Leaf vs. Versa)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●Current Subsidies
U.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 BEV100 vs. CV (Ford Focus)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●Current Subsidies
U.S.China
●
BEV-‐73 vs. CV (Nissan Leaf vs. Versa)
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 PHEV10 vs. HEV (Toyota Prius)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 PHEV20 vs. HEV (Ford C−Max)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 PHEV40 vs. CV (BYD F3)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 PHEV40 vs. CV (Volt vs. Cruze)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●
Current SubsidiesU.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 BEV75 vs. CV (Leaf vs. Versa)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●Current Subsidies
U.S.China
●
0 5 10 15 200
20406080
100 BEV100 vs. CV (Ford Focus)
Subsidy ($1,000 USD)
Plug−i
n ve
hicl
e sh
are
(%)
●Current Subsidies
U.S.China
●
BEV-‐76 vs. CV (Ford Focus) BEVs more a8rac&ve in China than U.S.
PHEVs a8rac&ve in both countries
Subsidies & Consumer Preferences for EVs in China / U.S.
John Helveston Carnegie Mellon
Preferences Preferences + Federal Subsidy
Impacts (rela&ve to CVs)
• PHEVs neutral • BEVs hard sell
• PHEVs more aRracFve • BEVs sFll hard sell
• Oil consumpFon ê • Emissions ê
• No preference PHEVs vs. BEVs
• Less opposed to BEVs than U.S.
• BEVs more aRracFve than PHEVs
• Oil consumpFon ê • Emissions (éê?)
China Policy: Oil Dependency, Emissions ?
16 August 05, 2014
U.S.:
China:
Life cycle electricity GHG intensity (g CO2−eq/kWh)0 200 400 600 800 1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Life
cyc
le G
HG
s (g
CO
2−eq
/km
)
BEV
CV
HEV
PHEV30
PHEV60
● ● ● ●Natural gasNatural gasNatural gasNatural gasNatural gasNatural gasNatural gasNatural gasNatural gas CoalCoalCoalCoalCoalCoalCoalCoalCoalLow−carbonLow−carbonLow−carbonLow−carbonLow−carbonLow−carbonLow−carbonLow−carbonLow−carbon
U.S. AverageChina Average
Subsidies & Consumer Preferences for EVs in China / U.S.
Increase local (and global) emissions…
?
Technological leadership?:
Increased global incenFves for EVs (Reduced global emissions?)
ê é
John Helveston Carnegie Mellon
Acknowledgements
August 05, 2014 17
This work is funded by: • The NaFonal Science FoundaFon. • Ford Motor Company.
Special thanks to:
• Jiang Zhijie, Zheng Wei, and Zang Ye at the State InformaFon Center in Beijing.
• Center for Climate and Energy Decision Making.
Subsidies & Consumer Preferences for EVs in China / U.S.
Contact Info Email: [email protected] Website: www.jhelvy.com Wechat (微信): jhelvy