will our future workforce be adequated & capable?

Wisconsin is Open for Business

November 13, 2012

Will Our Future Will Our Future Workforce beWorkforce beAdequate & Adequate & Capable?Capable?

SHRMC

WILL OUR FUTURE WILL OUR FUTURE WORKFORCE WORKFORCE

BE BE ADEQUATED & ADEQUATED &

CAPABLE?CAPABLE?

SHRMC

Dennis K. WintersChief, Office of Economic AdvisorsWisconsin Department of Workforce Development

November 12, 2013


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2

ITEMS IN TODAY’S PRESENTATION

THE ECONOMY HAS CHANGED

WORKFORCE CONSIDERATIONS WHO IS IN DEMAND

SKILLS EXPLORER APP


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THE ECONOMY

HAS CHANGED

AND SO MUST YOU


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Average Real GDP Growth First 9 Quarters of Recovery

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0Pe

rcent

5

ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES


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Average Real GDP Growth First 9 Quarters of Recovery

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0Pe

rcent

9.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1949 1954 1958 1960 1970 1975 1980 1982 1991 2001 2009

Real GDP Growth Sixteen Quarters into Recovery

66

ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES


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JOBS RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES


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WHAT ISTHE

NEW ECONOMY


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9

EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC PROSPERITY

• 19th Century – Bigger and Better Farms

• 20th Century – Bigger and Better Factories

• 21st Century – Bigger and Better Ideas


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Old Economy

Raw Materials Cost Race to Bottom Workers Chased Jobs Quality of Life was

luck of the draw

New Economy

Brain Power Value-Added Products Businesses Chase Talent QoL attracts talent

NEW ECONOMYCHANGED CONSTRUCT


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Stocks In

Intel

Microsoft

SBC (SWBell)

Home Depot

Pfizer*

Stocks Out

Union Carbide

Goodyear

Chevron

Sears Roebuck

International Paper*

CHANGES IN THE 30 DOW INDUSTRIALSNOVEMBER 1999

* As of 2004


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DESIGNED HEREASSEMBLED THERE

Designed in California

Assembled in China


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KATHLEEN


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Greater Capitalized Value than Ford and GM Combined

2005 Income before Taxes

from Car Sales($1.0 Billion)

from Financial Services$3.5 Billion


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Workforce development and

economic development are

interrelated and interdependent.

Ed = ED


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So, what will be the biggest socio-economic

policy challenge in the next 20 years?


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ELDERLY NUMBERS WILL SWELLWIDEN THE SIDEWALKS WILL YA !?


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OR PERHAPS THE MORE INTERGENERATIONAL VERSION


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QUANTITY


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WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE GROWTHBECOMES FLAT

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

Wisconsin Population and Labor Force

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

( x 1

000

)POPULATION

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE


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BLS RAISED LFPR FOR THE FUTUREPARTICULARLY FOR OLDER COHORTS

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the Census, OEA

Changes in LFPR by Age Cohort

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+

Constant2000201020202030


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WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE HIGHER LFPRs OFFER LIMITED GAINS

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

Worker Difference from Census 2000

(20,000)

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030

New BLS Plus 3% New BLS Plus 3% New BLS Plus 3%


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LITTLE CHANGES EVEN WITH HIGHER LFPRRETIREMENTS SWAMP PARTICIPATION

Source: Bureau of the Census, DOA, OEA

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

PopulationLabor force base caseBLS prj. changeElevated LFPR of 3 percentage points

Wisconsin Population and Labor Force


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NURSING WORKFORCE IN WISCONSIN DEMOGRAPHICS AT WORK

Source: Office of Economic Advisors


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QUALITY


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"The days are over when you could walk into a paper mill with a high school diploma and run one of the machines."

– Patrick Schillinger, former Wisconsin Paper Council President, Center will teach paper-industry technology, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, JS Online, October 21, 2004.

NEW ECONOMY NEED FOR SKILLS


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Then

Now

UnskilledUnskilled

60%60%

UnskilledUnskilled

12%12%Skilled 20%

Professional 20%

Professional 20%

Skilled 68%

WorkKeys and the National Career Readiness Certificate are registered trademarks of ACT, Inc.

CHANGES IN WORKFORCE SKILL REQUIREMENTSOVER THE LAST FIFTY YEARS


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TURN YOU LOOSE ON THIS BABYI DON’T THINK SO


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WHERE ARE THE PEOPLETECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTITUTE


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“Today in most fields I know, the struggle is about creativity and innovation. There is no script.”

– Robert B. Shapiro, former CEO & Chairman, Monsanto Corporation

NEW ECONOMY NEED FOR CREATIVITY & INNOVATION


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Source: Autor, Levy and Murnane, 2003

Nonroutine manual

Routine cognitive

Routine manual

Nonroutine analytical

Nonroutine interactive

WORKPLACE REQUIREMENTSCHANGES IN SKILLS USED AT WORK*

Source: K-12 Education and Economic Summit presentation by Alan B. Krueger, Princeton University

* Based on the Dictionary of Occupational Titles


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EDUCATION INCLINATIONGAINS LIMITED AT BEST


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WORKFORCE TRENDSARE:

Unprecedented – we have never faced a declining workforce before;

Assured – demographics will change little;

Largely unalterable – demographics and migration patterns do not change abruptly.


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RAMIFICATIONS OF WORKFORCE TRENDS ARE:

Potentially devastating – without sufficient productivity gains the state’s economy will stagnate;

Necessitating a focus on talent – large investments in education and training are needed;

Requiring match – talent supply and industry demand must be matched or you lose both.


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LOW INCOME GROWTH LEADS TO:DETERIORATION OF ECONOMIC CONDITION AND QUALITY OF LIFE

Lower per capita income

Decreased tax base / Budget deficits

Lower bond ratings

Decreased school funding and teacher salaries

Less & fewer public services

Lower quality of life


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Who is in

demand?


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*Job Openings includes both turnover and new jobs that are created.

MOST JOB OPENINGSBY OCCUPATION


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MOST JOB OPENINGSON JOB CENTER OF WISCONSIN


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MOST OFTEN HEARD POSITION CHALLENGESCHARACTERISTICS

OccupationAnnual % Growth

Growth Openings

Replacement Openings

Total Openings

Typical Entry Education

Median Wage

Heavy truck drivers 1.90 9,490 9,040 18,530 H.S. diploma $38,300

Welders 1.50 1,840 3,010 4,850 H.S. diploma $37,980

Customer service representatives

1.50 7,760 14,180 21,940 H.S. diploma $31,430

CNC machine operators 2.20 1,310 1,020 2,330 H.S. diploma $35,860

Maintenance workers, machinery

0.70 180 440 620 H.S. diploma $39,460

CNC machine operators 2.20 1,310 1,020 2,330 H.S. diploma $35,860

Nursing aides 1.50 6,300 4,900 11,200 Postsecondary $25,020

Registered nurses 2.20 13,780 10,450 24,230 Associate’s

degree$62,860

Mechanical engineers 0.70 470 2,010 2,480 Bachelor’s

degree$68,340

Food preparation and serving workers

2.30 15,360 17,140 32,500 < high school $17,910


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WHAT TRAINING TO PURSUEFIVE MAKE ALL THREE LISTS

Make all three lists Total OpeningsTypical Entry

EducationMedian Wage

Food preparation 32,500 < high school $17,910

Customer service 21,940 H.S. diploma $31,430

Registered nurses 24,230 AD/BS $62,860

Heavy truck drivers 18,530 H.S. diploma $38,300

Health care aides 11,200 Postsecondary $25,020

Make two lists

Welders 4,850 H.S. diploma $37,980

Material Movers 38,900 H.S. diploma $23,590

Retail sales 69,030 < high school $20,570

41

A PEEK AT THE LATEST & GREATEST APP SINCE THE CLASSIFIED ADVERTISMENT


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SKILLS EXPLORERTRANSFORMATIVE


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COMBINE KEY COMPONENTSINTO USABLE TOOL


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READY?


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SHRMCAssembler

and Fabricator

WelderMetal Worker


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Complementary tool to be used by:1. Job Seekers

2. Hiring Managers

3. Workforce Development Stakeholders • Technical College System• Workforce Development Boards• Economic Developers


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Usability Results


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Feasibility Results


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Overall Utility Results


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Was the skills and education page useful?

Useful

90%

Not useful

10%

Job Seekers

Useful

94%

Not useful

6%

All

50


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Did this convince you to look at other jobs or occupations?

Yes

75%

Somewhat

10%

No

15%

Job Seekers

Yes

74%

Somewhat

20%

No

6%

All

51


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Key Comments

52

53

http://skillexplorer.wisconsin.gov/Search.aspx

http://skillexplorer.wisconsin.gov/Search.aspx


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Questions ?


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Dennis Winters

Phone: 608-267-3262

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov

OEA website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea

CONTACT INFORMATION

will our future workforce be adequated & capable?

Documents

chart data range

lower right corner of

education page useful

shrmcusability resultschart10

job seekersyes75

job seekersuseful90

combine key components

usable toolwisconsin