North Korea: Will invade for food?Genii Grimsley

INTL 500: Research Methods in Security and Intelligence StudiesAmerican Public University

"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired, signifies in the final sense a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed." –Dwight D. Eisenhower (1953).

Introduction

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), also known as North Korea, was

formed at the end of WWII when the peninsula was divided and became a communist state

"under Soviet sponsorship" (CIA 2009). In 1950, the North Koreans invaded South Korea,

sparking the Korean War. In July 1953, North Korea and South Korea signed an armistice,

which was little more than a cease-fire, but did not officially end the war (Kim n.d.). The

armistice established a demilitarization zone (DMZ) along the 38th parallel, which has been a

source of many hostilities since its inception (Encyclopedia Britannica online 2009).

In 2008, North Korea had a population size estimated at 23,479,088 living on a total of

120,410 sq km of land, of which less than a quarter is arable (CIA 2009). This limits agriculture

and requires over-fertilization for viable food production (Haggard and Noland 2007, 8). The

DPRK government implemented a food distribution system, seizing grain from the farms

(Natsios 1999, 3) in rural North Korea and re-distributing it according to an individual's

occupation, age and hierarchy (Haggard and Noland 2007, 53-54) as a method to lessen food

shortages.

The food shortages began after the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics,

their major aid benefactor and the Chinese government reforms (Natsios 1999, 2). With the

floods in 1995, the North Korean people experienced a devastating famine that lasted for several

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years (Haggard and Noland 2007). The United Nation's World Food Programme and a number

of other foreign countries, allies and enemies, provided food aid and even fertilizer to alleviate

the famine in North Korea (Natsios 1999). The aid continues to combat current food shortages

although reports predict another famine looming (Jane's Foreign Report 2008).

In 2006, approximately 1,170,000 people, or 5.06% of the total population, served in the

Korean People's Army (KPA) (Library of Congress 2007b, 18). The North Korea's "Songun

Chongch'i," or "military-first," policy may explain the high military population

(GlobalSecurity.org n.d.). The DPRK follows the Songun policy by not only allocating a

significant portion of the budget to the military, but also a higher amount of its scarce food

(Haggard and Noland 2007; Library of Congress 2007b, 18).

During times of food shortages, a number of aggressive acts between North Korea and

South Korea occurred to include incidents around the Northern Limitation Line in the Yellow

Sea and sometimes involving civilian fishing boats, that may have been harvesting crabs at the

time (Foley 2002, under "Political-economic pressures"; Library of Congress 2007a). In 2002,

North Korea declared itself a nuclear power and proved it with their successful nuclear tests in

2006 (Jane's Intelligence Digest 2006). With the imminent possible testing of long-range

missiles, that could reach the United States, North Korea's threat is elevated on to the global

scale (Griffin and Fishel 2009).

The purpose of this study will be to predict the likelihood of North Korea invading South

Korea because of food shortages by linking prior food shortages and infiltrations. At this stage

of the study, the data focuses upon the food shortages, particularly the mid-1990's famine and the

militaristic events surrounding that same period, as well as current food shortages and militaristic

pursuits.

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Literature Review

Natsios' (1999) government report focused upon the causes and consequences of the

North Korean famine that occurred during the mid-1990s. This report concluded with thoughts

on how Kim Jong Il uses the military to deflect international attention away from internal

problems. The report used documentation from aid agencies, interviews with North Korean

refugees, defectors and government officials for data. Natsios used intuitive analysis following a

grounded theory model to shed light on the situation occurring in North Korea at the time.

The bias of this report is minimal as the information is as close to the ground truth as

Natsios could obtain. He used a multitude of interviews with refugees who actually suffered the

effects of the famine and with individuals within the government or those who had directly

provided aid to North Korea. A major fault of this paper is the lack of a reference list to verify

his interpretation of the data.

The importance of this report is that it gives a concise and apparently accurate view of the

causes and the sweeping effects of the famine that occurred between 1995 and 1998. It details

the government's response to not only the famine but also the international food aid they

received. It connects the famine with the effects it had on the military and even the planned

military coup in a famine ravaged Hamhung City.

Dies (2004) gave a historical overview of the infiltration operation of North Korean

Special Operations Forces (SOF) that took place between September 13, 1996 and November 5,

1996. Dies used intuitive analysis of newspaper articles of the time, congressional reports and

contemporary historical books. He also used his own experience as the Operational Officer for

the Combined Intelligence and Operations Center, C/J2, Combined Forces/USFK (Dies 2004,

under "author affiliation") during the 1996 submarine incident for the rest of his data collection.

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The flaw of this article, is limited to one side of the story, that of the US and South

Korea. There appears to be no North Korea documentation to explain the North Korean side of

the 1996 infiltration of Kangnung. Dies tries to limit the bias of the article by including

background on the North Korean Special Operations Forces, diary entries of one of the killed

SOF infiltrators and the testimony of the captured North Korean Lee Kwang Soo. Dies also

avoided introducing bias by not making deductions about the events, even though he was present

as an Operational Officer at the time.

The article helps to illustrate that the North Korean army received orders to prepare for

war one year after the floods had caused massive food shortages (Haggard and Noland 2007, 34).

Lee Kwang Soo's testimony confirmed hostilities between North and South Korea ran high.

Fischer's (The Library of Congress 2007a) report is a historical overview of North

Korea's hostilities against South Korea, the United States and Japan to create a chronology based

on newspapers from North Korea, South Korea, Japan and the United States. Fischer used

intuitive analysis of the data to select events to include in the report.

There is a slight bias to this report as it is a US government document but is minimized

by the author's lack of supposition into the events. Fischer provides perspectives from both sides

of the DMZ. The report correlates North Korean aggressions to times of food shortages. The

report also provides, in one location, the most current information on events that occurred

between North Korea and South Korea.

Jane's Intelligence Digest (2006) is a journalistic paper that discusses North Korea's

nuclear test on October 9, 2006 using data collected by various scientific instruments and

satellite imagery. The article shows inductive logic with intuitive analysis of the data to answer

key questions about the validity of the test, the weapons output and North Korea's capabilities.

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The article has bias since there is no North Korean perspective about the nuclear tests and

the author's frequent suppositions based upon the data concerning North Korea. This bias is

unavoidable since North Korean officials offered no information about their true capabilities and

intent (KCNA 2006).

This paper is important as it reports upon the North Korean nuclear test and assesses the

weapon's effectiveness. It details North Korea's nuclear capabilities, the ability to use them in

weapons, and assesses the possible proliferation of nuclear technology.

Jane's Foreign Report (2008) is a journalistic report that addresses the possibility of

another famine occurring. The collected information for this report is from North and South

Korean news articles, as well as the World Food Programme reports. The author utilized

intuitive analysis to answer the question of this report.

There is very little bias, as all involved parties contributed information for this article.

There is minimal data enumerating the shortfalls of food production or those people currently in

danger of malnutrition. The report is significant as it details current food status and predicts the

future of North Korean food shortages. This report correlates to Fischer's (Library of Congress

2007a) report on North Korean past hostilities and Griffin and Fishel's (2009) article about

possible military developments.

Korean Central News Agency (2009a, 2009b) released a couple of journalistic articles

that addressed the North Korean perspective of the current food problem. Both articles use

government information with intuitive analysis detailing the food crisis. KCNA (2009a) also

details the plans to increase the size of the KPA.

The articles are both highly biased, as the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) is a

government controlled news agency that releases approved information only. Because of the

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closed nature of the North Korean government, what little news released by North Korea

generally downplays their problems. The information from KCNA is mainly propaganda (Burns

2004). Neither article discusses the shortages in the food supply directly choosing to blame their

low food supply on a worldwide food supply crisis.

The significance of these articles is that they point to a current problem with food supply,

however minimal it may be. They also give a North Korean perspective into the current food

shortages.

The Griffin and Fishel (2009) news article details the North Korean's plans to test the

Taepodong-2, a long-range missile, by early March 2009. Griffin and Fishel gathered

information from satellite imagery analysis and interviews with South Korean government

officials. There is information provided by the KCNA demanding North Korea's "right to space

development" (Griffin and Fishel 2009, under "Pyongyang said").

Suppositions within the article as to the ramification of this testing shows some bias. The

limitation of this article is the amount of uncertainty left unresolved by the authors. This article

details the most current information on North Korea's military movements, connects the threat of

a new famine as highlighted in Jane's Foreign Report (2008) and the willingness of the North

Korean government to initiate hostilities against South Korea.

The Korean Central News Agency (2009c) article details North Korea's "right to space

development." North Korea does not verify nor deny a possible long-range missile test but

accuses others of inhibiting their space developments.

There is a significant amount of bias because the KCNA is a government-controlled news

agency, which only prints approved information. The KCNA uses derogatory or abrasive words

against South Korea and the United States to highlight their contempt.

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The article provides the North Korean position about missile tests. The KCNA concedes

that militaristic endeavors coincide with scientific pursuits.

The first four articles are historical references to the North Korean mid-1990's famine and

militaristic events. The last four articles are current references to North Korea's food shortages

and military actions. The first and fifth articles are on the food shortages in North Korea, while

the rest of the articles detail the numerous hostilities and military developments of the KPA.

The literature is quite extensive when researching the food shortages in North Korea or

the North Korean militaristic invasion of their southern neighbor. However, the wealth of

knowledge runs out quickly when investigating the direct connection of food supply with North

Korean aggressive actions. This proposal will fill the gap by correlating periods of food

shortages to North Korean provocations.

Theoretical Framework

While there have been numerous studies that look at what could provoke North Korea

into breaking the armistice and invade South Korea, there is a significant gap when discussing

food as a variable. What the literature catalogs in extensive depth is the incursions and

aggressive actions that have occurred between North and South Korea. The literature also

encompasses the North Korean food shortages, both historically and currently, as well as the aid

efforts of the WFP and South Korea.

Few articles discuss the food shortages in North Korea as a possible cause for war, one

such being Natsios’ (1999) report. Even though Natsios (1999) does discuss militaristic actions

that occurred during the time of famine, it was an internal militaristic actions but not with South

Korea. The articles that highlight aggressive actions generally do not discuss the underlying

cause for such hostilities. If lack of food is discussed as an underlying cause of war, it is a brief

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supposition by the authors. This study will attempt to show food shortages as being a possible

cause to North Korea invading South Korea by connecting the documents of aggressive actions

with times of food scarcity.

The theoretical framework for this research comprises of three theories, which investigate

the causes of conflict. Each theory investigates one independent variable causing the dependent

variable. The first theory in this study investigates North Korea's need for food causing war as

according to Realist Fundamentalism. North Korea suffered a famine between 1995-1998

(Haggard and Noland, 2007). At the same time, hostilities with South Korea escalated to a

dangerous level. These hostilities occurred around the DMZ and NLL with losses of lives on

both sides (Library of Congress, 2007a). As food is a primary need as based on the Maslow's

hierarchy of needs, the need for food could cause North Koreans to invade South Korea.

The second theory explores North Korea's need for food as a natural right through Liberal

Institutionalism. The World Food Programme is a UN relief organization that has been

providing aid to North Korea since the mid-1990's famine (Natsios, 1999). This aid has help to

alleviate some of the food shortages suffered in North Korea. With the decrease of food aid,

North Korea has increased their weapons testing and threats of wars. Loss of food aid by the

WFP could lead to North Korea starting a war to re-instate the food aid.

Finally, the theory under Marxism-Leninism considers the exploitation of North Korea by

South Korea. South Korea is a developed country neighboring the under-developed country of

North Korea. Under Marxism-Leninism, South Korea is exploiting North Korea's need for food

by demanding disarmament and cessation of their nuclear program (Korean Central News

Agency, 2009c). Therefore, the North Koreans could instigate a war if South Korea withholds

aid.

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The model utilized in this research is a simple causal model, focusing on several

independent variables causing the dependent variable of North Korea invading South Korea, as

seen below.

Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: A famine will cause North Korea to invade South Korea

Hypothesis 2: A lack of aid from the World Food Programme will cause North Korea to

invade South Korea

Hypothesis 3: South Korea's withholding food aid will cause North Korea to invade.

Research Design

This study uses a quantitative simple causal model to predict the possibility of North

Korea instigating another war with South Korea because of food shortages. The three

hypotheses stated above will be supported or refuted based upon the analysis of the evidence.

The research will attempt to predict the dependent variable of the three hypotheses, North

Korea invading South Korea. The independent variables of different types of food shortages will

be measured as a method of predicting its effect upon the dependent variable. Since the

historical measurement of food levels is known, as is the resulting invasion of South Korea, the

current data will be measured against the past to prove or not prove the hypotheses.

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Famine

Lack of aid from the WFP

South Korea’s withholding food aid

North Korea invading South Korea

The first hypothesis uses the independent variable of a famine as the causative agent for

the North Korean invasion of South Korea. As North Korea has faced a famine in the past, data

is present in regards to food ratio level and North Korean aggressive actions during that same

time. Hypothesis two measures the ratio of food aid given by the WFP to North Korea to find a

relationship to North Korean incursions. Finally, the third hypothesis will calculate the ratio

level of South Korean aid as the cause of North Korean invasion.

The multi-method plan will gather data using intensive interviews, observational field

research and content analysis of the existing data through secondary literature. This method of

data collection allows the researcher to not only gather evidence directly for current data but also

past evidence from literature written during or about the period in question. All three methods

will directly measure the three independent variables as well as the dependent variable.

With a number of intensive interviews, the project will include primary sources. These

interviews will be combined and analyzed for common themes utilizing a person’s demographic

information to obtain a heterogeneous sample of data. North Korean interviews will give the

research a first person view into the situation currently occurring and what actions the people and

government are taking to combat any food shortages, if they exist.

With the total population size of 23,479,088 (CIA 2009) known, at least 600 interviews

will maintain a 95% confidence level with a confidence interval of 4%. Using stratified

sampling, based upon demographics such as age, sex and occupation, the break down of the total

sample size will match the percentages of interviews completed within the sample size to the

percentages of the population that falls within the demographic parameters.

Interviews of South Korean officials and residents near the DMZ could obtain different

results, as the North Korean people may not speak freely about their shortages. South Korean

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interviews could also illustrate current and past policies in regards to the type, total amount,

distribution and time of aid given to North Korea. The South Korean officials could also detail

North Korea’s militaristic movements and developments, to include when and where these occur.

For the interviews conducted in South Korea, the researcher will interview all of the

government officials that have responsibilities involving policies about North Korea. Randomly

selected villages near the DMZ with a selection of 10 to 15% of their population and a

percentage of the fishermen that fish in the Yellow Sea near the NLL will be interviewed.

The interviews of officials for the WFP will show another impartial viewpoint into the

current food shortages. The WFP could also give details regarding time of greatest need, total

amount, type, and distribution of food aid.

Full interviews will be conducted of officials within the WFP that directly deal with the

policies and procedures surrounding North Korean food aid. Interviews of the personnel that

have direct dealings with North Korea in relation to food distribution will also be performed.

Through observational field research, the researcher will obtain answers to questions such

as food production levels, general nutrition levels of the people and typical meals. Because of

the secretive nature of the North Korean government, field research will be more beneficial than

intensive interviews.

Observational field research will be conducted throughout North Korea and along the

DMZ. Using a map of North Korea, observations will start within Pyongyang and continue by

choosing several villages in each province at 20-mile increments radiating away from the capital

in a systematic sampling method. Field observations will take place for at least 1 to 2 weeks in

each village to observe the lifestyles of the individuals, how they get their food and how much

the average person eats on a daily basis.

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Famine will be investigated by verifying food production levels and compare them with

previous years. The lack of aid from the WFP will be measured through observation of what aid

the people get, when they receive the aid and how much aid actually gets to the people. South

Korea’s involvement in food aid will measure where the aid is coming from, how much aid is

received, when is aid contributed and where the aid goes. The investigator will also verify the

disbursement of aid to the people. To measure North Korea’s intention to invade, satellite

imagery will be utilized to investigate the KPA’s deployments and weapons testing.

There is a wealth of data within the secondary literature that will be incorporated through

content analysis. Articles containing information on the North Korean food production and aid

received by either the WFP or South Korea will be analyzed for how much food, where the food

is from and when is food received to complete a food over time table. Another table will be

generated with data gathered about North Korean infiltrations and when they occur. These two

tables will then be compared through pattern matching analysis to prove or refute the three

hypotheses

One of the limitations of this research is the closed nature of the North Korean

government. A language barrier also exists that may effect the data gathered through intense

interviews and field observations. Additionally, information about North Korean movements

and incursions may be difficult to obtain due to the secretive nature of North Korea. Interviews

with North Koreans may be limited, especially with government and KPA officials, due to the

researcher being an American.

There are several sources where bias may influence this study. The interpreter utilized

for the intensive interviews in both North and South Korea, as well as for the field observations,

may introduce bias. To reduce this bias, a basic understanding of hangul and hangul-mal will be

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required of the investigator. The use of multiple articles for content analysis could introduce

each author’s bias. By looking at the facts detailed within the papers, authors’ bias should be

minimized. Finally, the researcher’s own bias cannot be overlooked merely addressed as a

potential bias.

References

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