will goodhand advanced quant - 2011 - 2
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Advanced Quant Techniques July 14, 2011
The Pursuit of Happiness… Can emo:ons predict in-‐market performance?
Will Goodhand, Brainjuicer
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The Pursuit of Happiness… Can emotions predict in-market performance?
Award Winner
2007
2007
Award Winner
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2007 Award
Winner
2007
S London S Rotterdam S Lausanne S Hamburg S New York S Chicago S LA S Toronto S Melbourne S Shanghai S Sao Paulo A Leading International Online research agency
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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Introducing System 1 vs. System 2 Thinking…
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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Implicit has greater processing power (and is less effortful)
System 2
System 1
50 bit/sec
11,000,000 bit/sec
Zimmerman, M. (1989) "The Nervous System in the Context of Information Theory".
“We are not thinking
machines that feel; we are
feeling machines that think”
Antonio Damasio
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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Can you tell what it is in the picture?
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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The way we think
fffddddggg
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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The way we think
fffddddggg
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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The way we think
green
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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The way we think
green
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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The way we think
blue
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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The way we think
red
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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The way we think
blue
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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Intuitive Judgement
“A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?”
“People are not accustomed to thinking hard, and are oBen content to trust a plausible judgement that quickly comes to mind.” Daniel Kahnemann, Nobel Prize Winner
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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Human behaviour driven by two independent brain systems, 1 & 2 …
Explicit Slow
AnalyIcal Learned
ProposiIonal Conscious
System 2
Implicit Fast
IntuiIve InsIncIve Metaphoric Unconscious
System 1
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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Current view is that emotion simply helps message cut through…
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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But new evidence reveals that the most effective advertising draws people closer to the brand…
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
Dec 10
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Paul Ekman
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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As seen in ‘Lie To Me’ Hit TV Series based on Paul Ekman’s work
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“Which of these faces best expresses how you feel about this ad?”
“To what degree did this ad make you feel
[selected emotion]?”
“And what was it about this idea that made you feel this way?”
FaceTrace® - Measuring Emotional Appeal
BrainJuicer® 2006
Contempt
Surprise
Anger
Disgust
Happiness
Sadness
Fear
Neutral Captures ‘Reasons for Emotion’
1Award Winner
2007
2007Award Winner
2007
Award Winner
2007
2007
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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Emotional campaigns outperform rational, info-based campaigns…
16%
26%
31%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Emotional Ad Strategy Combined Rational Ad Strategy
Campaign strategy
V la
rge
prof
it ga
ins
(% re
porti
ng)
“Emotional advertising campaigns are more effective & more
profitable than rational campaigns - even in 'rational' categories…”
Les Binet & Peter Field
Marketing in the Era of Accountability, 2007
(IPA dataMINE analysis study on 880 case studies).
“…The most effective advertisements of all are
those with little or no rational content”
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Dec 10
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Fame Campaign examples
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Which of these faces best expresses how you feel about this advert?
To what degree did this advert make you feel [selected emotion]?
What was it about this advert that made you feel this way? [Use patented MindReader®
to capture reasons]
Measuring the Cadbury Gorilla Emotionally with FaceTrace®
BrainJuicer © 2006
Contempt
Surprise
Anger
Disgust
Happiness
Sadness
Fear
Neutral
Award Winner
2007
2007
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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Cadbury Gorilla Ad
The best ad around! I just love it!!!! it is different and memorable Great ad, gets people talking about it, memorable
What does a gorilla playing the drums have to do with chocolate?
Don't understand the connection between a gorilla and chocolate
First time I saw it I was really surprised it was for
Excellent ad, not quite sure what gorilla represents, but who cares. Fantastic Ad is brilliant and gorilla makes me laugh, its very clever and easy to remember
Not what I was expecting. Trying to work out whether the gorilla was real... Bizarre and unique. Makes you watch the whole ad to find the tagline.
Good filming, but what has it to do with chocolate?
Cannot see what the connection was between Phil Collins, Gorilla & Chocolate
12
65
16
1
5
2.17
1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% o
f res
pond
ents
Intensity Scoremeasured on ascale from 0 to +3
Contempt
Disgust
Anger
Fear
Sadness
Neutral
Happy
Surprise
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Cadbury’s most effective ad ever
126
65
43
16
43
5 5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CDM (Gorilla) Commercial ads norm
Contempt
Disgust
Anger
Fear
Sadness
Neutral
Happy
Surprise
2.17 1.33
-1
0
1
2
How easy itis to
understand
How relevantit is to you
Howpersuasiveyou found it
How much ittold you
about thebrand
CDM Gorilla UK TV ad test normVery Positive
Negative
Emotional Intensity (0 to +3)
Would NOT have been progressed on usual information measures
WOULD have been progressed on emotional engagement measures
S Masterbrand payback 171% vs previous campaigns
S Revenue ROI of £4.88 for every £1 spent (vs £3.16 for previous persuasion campaign)
S Hardened price elasticity by 27%
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
Month Yr
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FaceTracing Output: Phil Collins
0%
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100%
Start2 s
ec4 s
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sec
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Contempt
Disgust
Anger
Fear
Sadness
Neutral
Happy
Surprise
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
Month Yr
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Heineken Walk-In Fridge
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
Heineken Walk-in Fridge… …would not have been progressed on cognitive KPIs
27 7 12
43
63
40
214023 3
1.33 2.101 1Contempt
Disgust
Anger
Fear
Sadness
Neutral
Happiness
Surprise
Intensity Score
Finished TV-ad Norm
- Click - to watch advertisement
- Heineken ‘Walk-In fridge’ ad -
Emotional measurement shows how brilliant the ad really is
-‐ 1
0
1
Relevant Persuasive Made youwant buy the
product
How much ittold about
brand
UK TV ad test normVery Positive
Very Negative
Finished TV-ad Norm
Would not have been progressed on cognitive KPIs
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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Both strongly outperform UK benchmark on Emotion-into-ActionTM
1%
22%
28%31%
16%
1%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
<65 66-70 71-75 76-80 81-85 >86Emotion-into-Action™ Score
% of Cases (UK finished film norm)
= Great ads = Good ads = Mediocre ads
84
85
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
…Enjoyed by millions of people on the web
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R 2 = 0.79
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 Emotional Intensity Score
YouT
ube
Hits
More Emotional Appeal = Exponential Growth in Fame
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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71
44
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Not Pre-tested Pre-tested
Traditional pre-testing actually REDUCES ad effectiveness
“Cases with favourable pre-testing results did significantly worse in market
than those that were not tested”
- Binet & Field, Marketing in the Era of Accountability, 2008
Source: Marketing in the Era of Accountability, Binet & Field, 2008. Analysis from the IPA DataMine effectiveness database.
Effectiveness Success Rate %
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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The Dirty Little Secret of Traditional Ad Pretesting
71
44
0
10
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30
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50
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80
Not Pre-tested Pre-tested
“The dirty little secret of traditional, information-based ad
pretesting is that it’s actually making things worse, by actively discriminating against the best creative & most effective work and suggesting ‘improvements’ to fit it’s
rational, information-based agenda.”
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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So are all categories driven by emotion?
Month Yr
33
World Exclusive: IPA experiment correlating big business effects
XL Business Effects
S 18 Ad campaigns – all submitted for IPA ‘most effective campaign’ award S Key criterion: # of very large business effects achieved, for example:
S market share gain S reduction of price sensitivity S increased penetration S profit gain S loyalty gain
S Experiment: which KPI can best select most effective 9 out of these 18 ads? Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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Emotion-into-Action™ score is the best predictor of Ad Effectiveness Traditional KPIs actually discriminate against most effective ads…
2.67
1.67
2.00
2.33
1.78
2.56
2.00
2.33
1.78
2.56
1
2
3
Best 9Ads
Bottom 9Ads
Best 9Ads
Bottom 9Ads
Best 9Ads
Bottom 9Ads
Best 9Ads
Bottom 9Ads
Best 9Ads
Bottom 9Ads
Base: 18 ads for which business effectiveness data is available from the IPA
Average number of very large business effects achieved for top and bottom 9 ads when ordered on each measure
Emotion-into-Action™
Persuasion Established Industry Cut-through
Measure Equivalent
Specific Key Message = on Message
Brand Linkage
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
Month Yr
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Emotion-into-Action™ has a strong, positive correlation with efficiency; Traditional cognitive KPIs actually show a negative correlation
0.37
-0.05
-0.27
-0.16
-0.30
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Emotion-into-Action
Persuasion Established Industry Cut-through
Measure Equivalent
Brand Linkage
Base: 10 ads for which SOM and ESOV data is available from the IPA
Specific Key Message = on Message
+ - - - - Extent to which variation in each measure explains variation in efficiency (R-squared values) – with positive or negative correlations marked (+/-)
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
Month Yr
36 36
Guide to Likely Business Effects
Profit gain extremely likely Share gain very likely Reduction in price sensitivity likely Viral potential in some cases Profit gain quite likely Share gain likely Profit gain possible Share gain potential limited Negative return on marketing investment quite likely Negative return on marketing investment likely
Blockbuster
Must See
Solid Performance
Pedestrian
Straight to Video
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Emotion-into-Action™ Score
Effic
ienc
y
Indication of Efficiency using Emotion-into-Action™ Score Efficiency = share gain/extra share of voice
Note: colour = confidence band (based on average size of 95% confidence interval for efficiency values)
CDM Gorilla ROI £1.85* IPA Silver
* Calculated using a reported revenue ROI of £4.88 and a reported ‘conservative industry estimate for gross margin’ of 38%. Source: Advertising Works 19, WARC, 2010
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
Month Yr
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4 6 102 6 3 2
19
46
25
52
41
5046
62
41
45
44
35
5339 45
33 37
2
0
0 0 0 0 0 00
0
0 0 0 0 0 11
2
1 10 0 2 02
1 12
15
2 3 4 5 1 20
8
0 00
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
RickardsAWARDWINNER
Brand A McDonald'sAWARD
WINNER
Brand B McCain SweetPotato
SuperfriesAWARDWINNER
Brand C A PillsburyReady to Bake
CookiesAWARDWINNER
Brand D
% o
f res
pond
ents
Contempt
Disgust
Anger
Fear
Sadness
Neutral
Happiness
Surprise
CASSIES Experiment Canada: Emotional Response
Which of these faces best expresses how you feel about the advert you saw?
72.2 59.6 75.6 70.0 73.2 71.2 78.4 73.6 Emotion-into-Action™Score
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
Beer Fast Food Frozen Potatoes Home Baking Mixes
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
Dec 10
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Case Study
40
Tropicana Fruit to the City
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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Tropicana Breakfast in New York
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
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1 1 6
72 66
43
27 30
43
100
1 2 58913
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Brand X: Ad A Brand X: Ad B Commercial adsnorm
ContemptDisgustAngerFearSadnessNeutralHappySurprise
Tropicana: Emotional response a better predictor of ROI
Emotional Intensity (0 to +3)
1.79 1.66
ROI*: £1.83 £1.73
*ROI measured by Nielsen
1.33
5.08
5.00
5.47
5.225.17
5.13
4.5
5
5.5
How much ittold you about
the brand
How relevant itis to you
How persuasiveyou found it
Brand X: Ad A Brand X: Ad B
43
60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Emotion-into-Action™ Score
Effic
ienc
y
43
Indication of Efficiency using Emotion-into-Action™ Score Efficiency = share gain/extra share of voice
Note: colour = confidence band (based on average size of 95% confidence interval for efficiency values)
Tropicana Fruit to City ROI £1.73
Tropicana Breakfast in New York ROI £1.83 IPA Silver
* Calculated using a reported revenue ROI of £4.88 and a reported ‘conservative industry estimate for gross margin’ of 38%. Source: Advertising Works 19, WARC, 2010
Will Goodhand, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Advanced Quant Techniques, July 14, 2011
Q & A
Will Goodhand BrainJuicer
Andrew Jeavons Survey Analytics
45
July 11 March 2010
45
More info? Will Goodhand Juicy Evangelist [email protected] +44 7980 673 186 www.brainjuicer.com