VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND LTD

Will Finland be a Forerunner in Decarbonising the Transport Sector? IEA ETSAP Workshop on Decarbonising the Transport Sector, 12th November 2017, Zürich Tiina Koljonen & Antti Lehtilä

Place for a photo

(no lines around photo)

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Starting point

The EU has set new 2030 targets for greenhouse gas reduction in the burden sharing sector (e.g. non-ETS) for each of its Member States For Finland the new target is -39% GHG reduction compared with

2005 level (the 2020 target was -16% compared with the 2005 emissions)

New energy and climate strategy as well as medium term

climate plan for Finland were approved in 2017 These include concrete measures to reach both the EU and

national energy and climate targets by 2030

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Impact assessments of national energy and climate policies were carried out in a multidisciplinary research project with five research organisations and more than 10 sectoral and integrated assessment models

Transport, Buildings, Agriculture, Waste manag.

Energy systems, GHG emissions

National economies, economical structure

Regional economies in Finland

Health

Forest industries, Wood use, Land use

Modelling framework to study the impacts of policies

Impacts on environment, nature, air emissions

Scenario analysis

Carbon sinks

TIMES-VTT

Sector models

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Transport accounts for 20% of Finland’s GHG emissions and also has the greatest potential for GHG mitigation in the non-ETS sector

Mt C

O2 e

q.

Other GHGs Other CO2 Transport CO2 Industry CO2 Energy CO2

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0

500

1000

1500

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2500

3000

3500

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5000

2020 2025 2030

Emis

sion

redu

ctio

n, k

t CO

2 eq.

Waste management

Agriculture(non-energy)F-gas emissions

Housing, service &agriculture buildingsWork machines

Domestic transport

Industry

Waste-to-energyplantsEnergy sector

GHG emissions of the transport sector should be halved from the 2005 level to reach the non-ETS target in 2030

2005 reference level

”Official WAM”

GHG emissions of domestic transport

Prime Minister Siplä’s Governmental Programme

New energy and climate targets for 2030 The share of renewable energy above 50% from final energy

consumption (EU2020 target 38%, which is already reached) Reduce the use of mineral oil by 50% (compared with 2005 level) Increase the share of domestic energy sources above 55% Phase out of coal in energy production Increase the share of renewables in transport to 40% (2020 target is

20%, which is already reached)

⇒Most of these targets have direct or indirect impacts on transport sector

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Mobility as a Service (MaaS)

A long-term aim pursued in transport policy is a change that would turn mobility into a service Finland is a pioneer in this "mobility as a service" thinking

A parliamentary committee was established in 2016 Physical mobility and digital services should merge into a high-quality door-to-door service Thus, the responsibility for innovations and service

development lies with the private sector

VTT’s robot cars Marilyn and Martti

Full automation is still some way off

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Two core scenarios: WEM & WAM

WEM (With Excisting Measures) scenario assumes existing Finnish national policies and measures and EU 2030-policy targets for the rest of the EU WAM (With Additional Measures) scenario assumes the EU 2030-

policy targets for Finland. Following measures have been approved: Biofuel blending obligation will be increased to 30% in road transport

(average in 2030), and additionally 10% for work machine diesel use and heating oil use in buildings Electric cars at least 250,000, gas fueled cars at least 50,000 in 2030 Waste incineration plants moved to ETS sector around 2022 Flexible mechanisms are used to cover 2% points of the effort sharing non-

ETS sector emission reduction target

The ETS price level is expected to be 15 €/tonne in 2020 and 30 €/tonne in 2030 both in WEM and WAM, energy commodity prices are endogenous

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National policies and measures by 2030 to reach both the RES and GHG targets in the transport sector

30% biofuel blending obligation in road transport: New investments on advanced biofuel production plants (total new

capacity app. 600 000 ktoe/a), which will use domestic raw materials (e.g. mainly wood residues but also other biowastes, and other raw materials)

Increase the number of electric vehicles up to 200 000 and gas fuelled vehicles up to 50 000 No agreed policies yet how to do this

Increase of energy efficiency of the vehicles and the whole the whole transport system New EU regulations, MaaS, increase of public transport, walking &

cycling, efficiency & logistics of heavy transportation, etc. etc.

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National and EU level policies and strategies will define the mitigation path up to 2050

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GH

G e

mis

sion

s (ex

cl. L

ULU

CF),

MtC

O2e

Inventory 2 degree scenario

-40% GHG reduction (EU target) -55% renewable target -40% renewables in transport -Phase out of coal -Halving the use of mineral oil

-20% GHG reduction (EU target) -38% renewable target -20% renewables in transport

-80-95% GHG reduction (EU and national target)

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Large share of RES growth is happening without any policies due to growth of forest industries => Opportunities but also challenges for advanced biofuel production

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100

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70020302025202020152010

Ren

ewab

le p

rimar

y en

ergy

, PJ

WEM

WAM

WEM

WAM

WEM

WAM

WEM

WAM

Ambient

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Waste

BioliquidimportsAgrobio

BlackliquorWood

Renewable primary energy WEM vs. WAM

12 18/12/2017 12 Note: Only focal fractions of total oil consumption included, as defined in government programme

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eral

oil

prod

ucts

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ptio

n, P

J

WEM

WAM

WEM

WAM

WEM

WAM

WEM

WAM

Workmachines

Transport

Buildings &agricult

Industry

Power andheat

Oil consumption by sector (government’s definition)

Fossil oil is mainly replaced by advanced biofuels but also due to electrification

Wood consumption: 2013 vs. 2030 WEM vs. WAM not a big issue except in public debate

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1202013 2030

Woo

d, m

illio

n m

3

WEM WAM

SNG*

Liquid fuels

Solid energyuseRecoveryboilerNew fibreproductsPaper pulps

Woodproducts

* SNG=synthetic natural gas from wood

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Forest sinks are halved but returned back due to forest renewal (Source: National Resource Institute of Finland) After the latest inventory of the forest stock, the increase of forest sinks is larger than in the below figure

Impacts of 2030 strategies

Maximum sustainable use of wood

Low industrial use of wood

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Major uncertainties and pain points

EU policies: Sustainability criteria of wood => delays in investments in Finland LULUCF policies => how carbon sinks are calculated (e.g. baseline) New RES markets based on RED2 => investments could move to other

EU countries

National policies How to ensure early enough investments, especially for biofuel plants How to ensure that Finland will have 250 000 electric vehicles by 2030

(today less than 1000) How to ensure that our transport system will become more efficient (e.g.

the growth of transport demand should be flattened) How to ensure social equality of people living in rural areas

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New opportunties from VTT in collaboration with Lappeenranta University of Technology

Fuels can be made from air … and food from electricity

Additional information

Tiina Koljonen Research Team Leader Energy systems and Climate tiina.koljonen@vtt.fi Tel. 050 359 9549