wildfire and flood hazards, using gis tools to assess risk · • wildfire activity for 2013...
TRANSCRIPT
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Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA
September 2015
Wildfire and Flood Hazards, Using GIS Tools to Assess Risk
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• What advantages are there in looking at fire and flood hazards, together?
• What mitigation concepts work for fire and flood?
• What messaging or tools can we pull from fire risk assessment to apply to flood risk assessment, and vice versa?
Thoughts To Keep In Mind
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 20151
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• Many of the same people who are interested in understanding flood risk are interested in fire risk assessment (just a selection below)
Flood and Fire - Who
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 20152
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• Over 32% of the U.S. population lives in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) (USDA Forest Service, 2013)
• Wildfire activity for 2013 increased 50% above average of past 4 years, doubling burn area of 2012.
• Losses due to wildfire statistically result in 100% loss to the homeowner
Wildland Fire and Flood Risk• U.S. Population in SFHA ???
Closest stat was ASFPM’s 3% of population in a Coastal Flood Zone.
• “Record Flood” has been appearing more frequently in the news but are floods more frequent???
• $1B+ events flooding listed many times, fire only a few https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 20153
FIRE FLOOD
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Flood Rate Map – 1% annual chance hazard
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 20154
Flood Risk Map – Economic Losses
• Risk Analysis is:• Predictive• Assesses current situation / ground conditions• Data intensive• Results that can be used to take action
Risk Reports
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• Regional models
• National level data sets
• 30-m Grid Cell or use national level data
• Mostly summarized at Zip Codes we offer Parcel or Address
• Underwriting, point-of-sale renewal of insurance – Not incident command and action
Fire and Flood GIS Risk Factors
• Community or HUC-8
• Stream-by-Stream, localized data
• 2-ft contour accuracy, LiDAR points
• Interpreted for individual locations
• Flood insurance and community floodplain management, mitigation planning and disasters
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 20155
FIRE FLOOD
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• Roof Type and Configuration
• Attached structures (especially wooden)
• Exterior Wall Type• Foundation• Construction Type/Style• Fireplaces• Maintenance Condition• Dwelling Type• Method of HVAC• Garages/Carports• Freeboard
Fire and Flood GIS Risk Factors• Lowest Finished floor
Elevation• Occupancy Type• Replacement Cost /
Content cost• Flood protection / Design
level• Foundation type• Attached structures• Year built• Square footage• House ignition zone
radius
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 20156
FIRE (when evaluating a property) FLOOD (Hazus UDF)
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Freeboard vs Ignition ZoneHistorical Riverine Home
Before
After
Do these actions swap one natural hazard risk
for another?
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 20157
Freeboard Achieved
House Ignition Zone not achieved
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Fire Factors:• Fuel / Vegetation
• Size and Shape• Arrangement• Moisture Content (dead or alive)
• Fire History• Terrain
• Slope• Weather
• Wind• Precipitation
Fire and Flood GIS Risk Factors
Regression Equation:
• You know these…
• Terrain
• Precipitation
• Drainage Area
• Impervious Surface
• Slope
• … more factors
• Hydraulics for the details
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 20158
FIRE FLOOD
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U.S. Population Living Near WUI
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 20159
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• Fire History• Title: Fire History• Source: U.S. Geological Survey• Note: Fire patterns within landscape
are based on interactions between vegetation dynamics, fire spread, fire effects, and spatial context.
Data Sources
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201511
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• Precipitation• Title: United States Average
Annual Precipitation• Source: National Atlas of the
United States
Data Sources
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201512
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• Fuel / Type of Vegetation• Title: 13 Anderson Fire Behavior
Fuel Models• Source: U.S. Geological Survey
Data Sources
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201513
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• LandCover• Title: National Land Cover
Dataset• Source: USGS• Note: Categories include
agriculture, barren, developed, herb, shrub, sparse, tree, and water
Data Sources
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201514
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• Slope (Elevation)• Title: National Elevation
Dataset• Source: USGS NED
Data Sources
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201515
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• Wind• Title: National Wind Resource
Assessment• Source: US Department of
Energy• Note: Ratings are taken by wind
power density
Data Sources
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201516
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Factor Influence (%)*
Vegetation 20
Fuel 20
Fire History 20
Precipitation 20
Wind 10
Slope 10
Methodology
* These rankings may be adjusted based on user input
Factor Attributes Low (1) Medium (2) High (3) Very High (4)
Vegetation Type 1 X
Vegetation Type 2 X
Vegetation Type 3 X
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201517
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Vegetation
Fuel Model
Slope
Methodology
LOW RISK HIGH RISK
MORE FUELLESS FUEL
LOW RISK HIGH RISK
STEEP SLOPEGRADUAL SLOPE
LOW RISK HIGH RISK
DRY BROADLEAF TREESWET LOW VEGETATION
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201518
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Wind
Fire History
Precipitation
Methodology
LOW RISK HIGH RISK
SHORT FIRE RETURN INTERVALLONG FIRE RETURN INTERVAL
LOW RISK HIGH RISK
LOW PRECIPITATIONHIGH PRECIPITATION
LOW RISK HIGH RISK
HIGH WIND SPEEDSLOW WIND SPEEDS
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201519
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Wildland Fire Model Output
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Image Courtesy of Yavapai County Flood Control District, AZ
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Risk Report Web Application
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201522
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• Rancho Cucamonga worked with CAL FIRE on Wildland Fire Risk Maps for the City
• Permit / Development / landscaping guidelines
• One more step to combine with flood risk?
http://www.cityofrc.us/cityhall/fire_district/high_fire_hazard_area.asp
Interactive Map Viewer: http://regis.cityofrc.us/Wildlandinterface/default.htm
Wildland Fire Hazard Risk Areas
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201523
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Show Me My House
Photo realistic visualization helps make the message personal
24
Freeboard or Depth GridHow much water up against your home?
30-90-120 ftFuel Risk Rings
200-ft home ignitionzone
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201524
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Used to seeing single natural hazard focused Mitigation Action Suggestions
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201525
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• Combine a risk assessment for many hazards?
Multi-HazardMitigationActions
Fire Hazard
Erosion Potential
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Post-Fire Flood Risk• Fire decreases
infiltration and increases runoff
• Allowing more precipitation to reach the ground
• Soil-water storage is reduced
• Fire eliminates fine roots that bind soils together
• Potential for sediment transport
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201527
Graphic and content from Victoria Stempniewicz NAU Thesis: Evaluating Erosion Risk Mitigation Due to Forest Restoration Treatments Using Alluvial Chronology and Hydraulic Modeling
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Post-Fire Flood Risk - Schultz
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201528Photos from azdailysun.com
Pamphlet -https://www.azdeq.gov/function/programs/download/adwr-wildfire_insurance.pdf
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• Landslide / mudslide post-fire risk probability analysis
Post-Fire Flood Risk
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201529
http://landslides.usgs.gov/hazards/postfire_debrisflow/2015/20150617lake/
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• Fire and Flood risk do go together.• Share common data layers• They impact each other either• Groups starting to look at the
combined hazard with post-fire/flood/landslide/debris flow risk
• Are there lessons we can learn from discussing fire risk in the flood hazard world and vice versa?
• Can mitigation options address more than one natural hazard and what does it take to get the conversation focused like that?
Please continue to consider
| Floodplain Management Association Conference, Rancho Mirage, CA, September 201530
Questions?
Flames from the Rocky Fire approach a house on July 31 in Lower Lake, California. Justin Sullivan / Getty Images