Wider Benefit analysis for the transport corridor Oslo-Stockholm, preliminary results

THE PROJECT

OSLO-STOCKHOLM2.55

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Reoriented more direct rail connection with greater capacity

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• Today 572 km• New 498 km

• Existing double track 171 km • New Line double track 165 km• Additional track beside existing 162 km

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Passenger Rail product concepts

• Inter City Express

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GENDIATUR, QUE REIUNT EXPLABO. UT ASINCTIIS DE VOLLACCAB ISUNT ET EOS QUATIANDANDI DELLECU LLUPTIIST

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• Regional Express

• Dep. 1 hour frequency• 4-5 stops• 250 km/h top speed• 2 h 55 min• Direct service morning and late

afternoons 2 h 40 min

• Dep. 1 hour frequency• 20 stops• 200 km/h top speed• ½ hour frequency morning and late

afternoons

Passenger Rail Traffic Network Objective

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Goal for city – city travel time

Traveling time comparizon (1) car - train today - new project

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0

60

120

180

240

300

360

420

Oslo-Stockholm Oslo-Karlstad Oslo-Örebro Oslo-Västerås Oslo-Eskilstuna

Restid bil Restid tåg O-S 2.55

Traveling time (2) car – train today – new project

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0

60

120

180

240

300

360

Karlstad-Örebro Karlstad-Västerås Karlstad-Stockholm Örebro-Västerås Örebro-Stockholm Västerås-Stockholm Eskilstuna-Oslo Eskilstuna-Karlstad

Restid bil Restid tåg O-S 2.55

Benefits with Oslo-Stockholm2.55

wider geo sustainable growth regions two capitals and three of the greatest Scandinavian country regions will form a new corridor region

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Strategic Objective for Freight Rail

Higher Train Loads• Longer train lenght 750 m• Higher axleloads 25 t• Higher meterweight 8, 4 t/m

On time delivery• Higher line capacity• More flexible timetabelsHigher costefficiency• Shorter lean times in freight terminal

access and departure• Shorter turn arounds• Higher utility of rolling stock

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BENEFIT ANALYSIS

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Wider benefit analysis

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- Travel time savings

- Benefits for the labor market

- Benefits for the business sector

- Real Estate and Housing benefits

- Social benefits

- Benefits for the integration

- Study benefits

- Environmental benefits

From infrastructure to wider social economic development

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Infrastructure Traffic system Accessibility Development!

Benefitsa. Real Estate developmentb. Travel time savingsc. Labor market d. Business sectore. Environmentf. Social benefits

Regional conditions+

Strategic Local investments

Market for travel and transportation

Optimization and funding

Idea stage > PFS > PEA > FS

The more people the more development

Population/Population density

”Size”Number of sectors

Competition

Employment

Entrepreneurship

Innovations

Wage level/productivity

Health

Public service

Level of education

Energy efficiency

Etc.

The larger the region, the more industries and labour bransches

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0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

10 000 100 000 1 000 000 10 000 000

Bra

nsch

bred

d (a

ndel

av

tota

la a

ntal

et b

rans

cher

)

Befolkningsmängd i så kallade "Funktionella Analys-regioner” 2014

Data: SCB

Örebro Region local labour market

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1996 2006 2013 2015Askersund Askersund Askersund AskersundHallsberg Hallsberg Hallsberg DegerforsKumla Kumla Kumla HallsbergLekeberg Laxå Laxå HälleforsLindesberg Lekeberg Lekeberg KarlskogaNora Lindesberg Lindesberg KumlaÖrebro Nora Nora Laxå

Örebro Örebro LekebergLindesbergNoraStorforsÖrebro

Västerås Region local labour market

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1996 2006 2013 2015

Hallstahammar Arboga Arboga Arboga

Sala Hallstahammar Hallstahammar Hallstahammar

Surahammar Kungsör Kungsör Kungsör

Västerås Köping Köping Köping

Sala Sala Sala

Surahammar Surahammar Surahammar

Västerås Västerås Västerås

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TRAIN2016Traveltimeinminutes Oslo Lilleström Arvika Karlstad Örebro Västerås StockholmCOslo 0 31 109 151 280 330 315Lilleström 31 0 140 180 275 330 335Arvika 110 160 0 50 160 260 230Kil 164 195 30 23 115 210 185Karlstad 151 195 60 0 100 140 180Kristinehamn 190 220 85 20 70 160 138Karlskoga/Degerf 205 160 115 45 50 145 120Örebro 250 280 145 95 0 50 110Västerås 340 370 195 140 50 0 55StockholmC 315 350 205 150 120 60 0

TRAIN2040Traveltimeinminutes Oslo Lilleström Arvika Karlstad Örebro Västerås StockholmCOslo 0 9 43 62 98 134 175Lilleström 9 0 34 53 89 125 166Arvika 43 34 0 32 68 104 144Kil 67 58 23 8 44 80 121Karlstad 62 53 32 0 35 72 112Kristinehamn 82 73 52 20 29 65 105Karlskoga/Degerf 93 84 63 30 18 54 95Örebro 98 89 68 35 0 36 76Västerås 134 125 104 72 36 0 40StockholmC 175 166 144 112 76 40 0

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2 t 30 min

294 000195 000 244 000 Sthlm C

Today

Oslo C

1 t 40 min 50 min 55 min

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2 t 30 min

294 000195 000 244 000 Sthlm C

Today

Oslo C

1 t 40 min 50 min 55 min

1 t 02 min

294 000195 000 244 000 Sthlm C

Tomorrow

Oslo C

35 min 30 min 42 min

Travel and calculated net present values travel time savings

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Number of train journeys / year

JA 2040 UA 2040 Alternation

Regional, national ~65 billion ~87 billion +34 %

International ~385 000 ~2,9 billion +750 %

A socioeconomic calculation with some limitations for freight- net present values

Effect Value Sweden, billion crowns

Value Norway, billion crowns

Total value, billion crowns

Producer excess 8 542 12 402 20 950Budget effects 442 590 1 032Consumer excess 23 492 15 483 38 975External effects 408 3 791 4 199D&U, reinvestments 168 1 846 2 014Sum 33 052 34 111 67 170

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Increased job availability within 60 minutes

County JA UA IncreaseUAtoJA

Stockholm 1595700 1605800 1%Västerås 215600 248100 15%Örebro 129000 245000 90%Lekeberg 71600 71600 0%Degerfors 23800 87800 268%Karlskoga 70000 83400 19%Kristinehamn 48400 115800 139%Karlstad 66400 107000 61%Arvika 14200 46500 228%

SUM 2234800 2 611000 17%

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Labor market and business benefits

Increase in number of jobs

2036-2045

Increase in salaryyear 2045 withOslo-Stockholm

2.55 (Mkr)

Increase in business benefits year 2045 with Oslo-Stockholm 2.55

(Mkr)

Karlstad ~9 300 185 200

Örebro ~18 900 157 151

Västerås ~12 800 27 20

Summa 41 000 Ca 370 Mkr Ca 370 Mkr

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Accumulated contribution to the gross region product during the period 2036-2045: approximately 5,2 billion

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Forecast freight flows per year railway (kTon/year)2012 2040

1 494

1 688

1 135

6 99111 388

655 685

894

2 338

2 964

2 7991 394

1 511

870

Source: Trafikverket, Basprognos 2040

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Forecast number of road trucks per day

2040

~1 500

2012

~700 ~800 ~2 200

~1 200

~1 000 ~1 500 ~3 900~1 000

~1 200

~2 900

~1 100

~1 700

~1 700

Source: Trafikverket, Basprognos 2040

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Freight flows 2040 (kTon/Year)RoadRailway

11 388

2 338

2 964

2 7991 394

1 511

870

9 5352 513

11 1208 108 9 133

26 592

27 19621 210

7 277

11 266

11 702

232

0

Källa: Trafikverket, Basprognos 2040

Benefits for freight transport

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Source: Trafikverket

Shorter transport distance for especially InterModal Trainson the short cut line Arvika (

Se)- Lilleström (No)( - 65 km)

Shorter Transport timewith due to reduced

no of stops under way(0,5-1 h)

More flexible logisticsdue to higher line

capacity

Longer trains 750 m will increase the train

net load

Higher axleloads and meterweight will

increase the train netload

Shorter turn aroundsand higher fleet utilitywith better access to

freight terminals

HigherReliability and lower transport

costs

The freight operators are represented with licencein both countries

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Housing benefits

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New housing UA Alternation Increase in valueKarlstad 23 000 + 15 % 500 – 830 MkrÖrebro 35 000 + 13 % 840 – 1 400 MkrVästerås 37 400 + 7 % 590 – 960 Mkr

Attractivity

Productivity

Well-being

Demand

Access to housing

Consumption of housing

Oslo-Stockholm 2.55

Not: the numbers should be seen as potential, not as a forecast.

Social benefits

• Based on the human needs• Better housing, improved study and work opportunities, a richer leisure• Benefits for as many people as possible • Including, not excluding • More fair resource allocation, strengthening equality and gender equality • The social capital is strengthened:

– Trust can be improved – Exclusion is reduced – The unhealthy total is reduced– Greater satisfaction and increased confidence in the future

• Oslo-Stockholm 2.55 is expected to generate several different social benefits.

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Possible integration benefits

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• Remain in smaller municipalities and small towns after permanent residence• Easier to visit relatives and compatriots• Expanded labor market • Better opportunities for adequate care• Increased opportunities to participate in community and community life • Increased housing construction can reduce housing shortage and narrow housing • Improved communications creates self-esteem and satisfaction

Factors Impact

Student perspective

Supply of education +

Regional attractiveness ++

Further education of professionals ++

Collaboration with working life +

Distance education (+).

International students (+)

Business perspective

Recruitment of staff ++

Recruitment of students +

Collaboration with Swedish universities +

International collaborations (+)

Collaboration companies public and non-profit sectors. +

Social perspective

Increased education level in the region (+)

Competence supply of companies, public and non-profit sectors (+)

Innovations and new business (+)

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Environmental benefits

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Norwegian – Swedish exchange

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Municipality Labor market Border trade Tourism Norwegian-Swedishownership and investment Export and import

Oslo

Strengthened. Common labor market with Karlstad in certain professions. Easier commuting from Western Värmland.

Weekly commuting Oslo-Stockholm is facilitated.

Strengthened. As a capital, Oslo exerts an attraction for trade based on supply rather than price.

Strengthens. Strengthens.Certain reinforcement through more common services market.

KarlstadStrengthened. Common labor market with Oslo in certain professions.

Strengthens. Strengthens. Strengthens.Strengthened through more common services market.

Örebro Weak effect, weekly commuting easier. No effect. Opportunity to

develop Opportunity to develop.Strengthened through more common services market.

VästeråsSignificant effect,weekly commuting easier.

No effect. Some opportunity to develop

Possibility to develop with the help of strong brands.

Certain reinforcement through more common services market.

Stockholm Weekly commuting Olso-Stockholm easier. No effect. Strengthens. Insignificant effect. Insignificant effect.

Benefits with Oslo-Stockholm2.55

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