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Wicked Problems(Understanding complexity)

Agree concepts

Define boundaries

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Land spanning more than 0.5 hectares with trees higher than 5meters and a canopy cover of more than 10 percent, or treesable to reach these thresholds in situ. It does not include landthat is predominantly under agricultural or urban land use.

What is a forest?

Definitions matter

Source: Rekacewicz et al. 2009 http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/forest

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13 m ha.yr‐1Determining trends

Reforestation7,8 m ha.yr‐1

Forest Expansion

Afforestation

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Understanding the trendDeveloping a dynamic systems understanding

Time

EXPLAINING THE TRENDS: Identifying Drivers

Underlying causes

Proximate causes

Influencing factors

Demography

Births, deathsMigrationPopulation density

Culture

Public attitudes, beliefs, valuesIndividual behaviour

Institutions

Formal policiesPolicy 

environmentProperty rights

Technology

IntensificationInfrastructureProcessing efficiency

Economy

Market growthMarket demandPrice fluctuation

Infrastructure

Transport & energyIndustrialisationUrban expansion

Agriculture

Cultivation typeLand clearanceLand speculation

Timber extraction

Commercial loggingIllegal logging

Logging intensity Environment

Disturbance regime

Social & political stability

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It’s complex!

Wellbeing

• Quality of Life

• Think…

• What is important in your life?

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What is important for your quality of life?

Capital Assets Framework

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Natural Capital

• Land and products

• Water & aquatic resources

• Trees and forest products

• Wildlife

• Wild foods & fibres

Physical Capital

• Infrastructure• transport ‐ roads, vehicles, etc.

• secure shelter & buildings

• water supply & sanitation

• energy

• communications

• Technology• tools and equipment

• seed, fertiliser, pesticides

• traditional technology

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Financial Capital

• Savings

• Credit/debt

• Remittances

• Pensions

• Wages

Human Capital

• Health

• Nutrition

• Education

• Knowledge and skills

• Capacity to work

• Capacity to adapt

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Social Capital

• Networks and connections

• Trust

• Formal and informal groups

• Participation in decision‐making

• Leadership

Livelihoods

“The assets (natural, physical, human, financial and social), and access to these determine the living gained by the individual or the household”

Source: Ellis, 2000. Rural Livelihoods and Diversity in Developing Countries.

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The Social‐Ecological System

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Trade Offs

1. Ecosystem Services

2. Strategies

3. Stakeholders

4. Technical fixes

People have many different options, and they are good at finding new ones!

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Wicked Problems

• Multiple actors

• Differing perspectives

• Conflicting interests

• Significant intangibles

• Pervasive uncertainties

• Each solution is unique

• Each solution is costly

• …and has consequences

Former US Secretary of State George Shultz drew a distinction between “problems you can solve”, and “problems you can only work at.”

Think of a problem. 

Are you having trouble clearly defining it?

Does it involve changing what people think or do, or how they think of themselves?

Do you suspect that when you think you have solved it, there will still be some outstanding issue, or new problem to deal with?

Do you know that no matter what you do, someone will be unhappy?

Does the problem keep changing?

Are you failing to make progress by being rational?

An environmental problem.

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Wicked Problems

• Solutions are not right or wrong …

… but more or less acceptable

• No stopping rule

• The answer is a process

• Authoritative

• Competitive

• Collaborative

Taming Wicked Problems