why web2.0 will drive ipv6 deployment

Why Web2.0 Will Drive IPv6Deployment

Roger Kermode,Director, Innovation & TechnologySmart Internet Technology CRC

December 6, 2006 Copyright Roger Kermode / Smart Internet CRC Slide 2

What is Web 2.0?

First coined by O’Reilly Media in 2004

Second Generation of Web Services• RSS Social Networking / News• Wikis Open Knowledge• Tagging Folksonomies• AJAX Mashups

del.icio.ussocial bookmarking


Technorati

Source: www.tehnorait.com


Blogs vs. Mainstream Media

Source: www.tehnorati.com


Number of Articles

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

2001 M

ar

2001 Jun

2001 Sep

2001 D

ec

2002 M

ar

2002 Jun

2002 Sep

2002 D

ec

2003 M

ar

2003 Jun

2003 Sep

2003 D

ec

2004 M

ar

2004 Jun

2004 Sep

2004 D

ec

2005 M

ar

2005 Jun

2005 Sep

2005 D

ec

2006 M

ar

2006 Jun

Total English

Source: stats.wikimedia.org


“Google has acquired YouTube for $1.65 billion in an all stocktransaction. Both companies have approved the deal which shouldofficially close in the fourth quarter. YouTubes’s 65 employees willremain with the company…” – www.techcrunch.com

… not just text, Rich Media too!

July 2005: Acquired by NewsCorp for US$580mAugust 2006: Google signs exclusive ad deal for US$900m


…An Emerging Technology: VoIP 2.0

The Idea: Immersive Communication Environment (ICE)• Inspired by frustrations with poor audio on MMOG’s• Developed means to spatialise group audio over the net• Trialled with gamers in Launceston• ICE can be used to create audio-enabled social software

Key features• Spatialisation (position, attenuation)• Scaling technically (lots of users) and socially (social practice)

Game Changer• Number vs Name vs Space

Techology has been spun off into ”SV Corp”


“Playing Enemy Territory with ICE is amillion times more fun…”


… not just Media, Applications too!


Web2.0 Summary

Characteristics• Service Oriented• Two way / Participatory Consumers become producers• Increasingly Media Rich• Increasingly Real Time & Mobile…

Drivers• Rich Experience• Trust, Relevance, and Accuracy• Ubiquitous Connectivity• High Speed

Internet ProtocolA Brief Reminder


Internet Protocol Design Assumptions

Hosts are• Stationary• Wired• Trusted

Service• Best Effort• One size fits all

We’ve relaxed these assumptions• Dynamic Addresses• Mobile Hosts• Wireless Hosts• QoS

Source: robo.pl


And now the consequences

Internet has become THE network…• Domestic

• Commercial

… and is fast becoming a victim of its own success• Massive Increase in Hosts• And hence demand for addresses• And hence demand for scalable deployment


So How is IPv6 supposed to help?

Larger Address Space• 128 bits vs. 32 bits No NATs

Affords wastage andnew business models

Better Support for wireless / mobile hosts• Zeroconfiguration Faster to get online• No triangular routing Faster network access• No NAT Keep Alive Longer battery life

Better Security• IPSEC & 128 bit addresses Safer Transactions


…but no good deed goes unpunished

Workarounds that extend IPv4• CIDR• NATs

Retrofits to IPv4• IPSec• ZeroConf

The Result?• IPv4 (sort of) works• IPv4 (sort of) scales• IPv4 is becoming brittle….

IPv4

So what does this mean in the realworld?


Mega Trends

Connectivity

Comm

oditisation

DeviceCommoditisation

Pers

onal

Devic

e

Conv

erge

nce

ShrinkingMargins


Why ROI & CAPEX Matter…

ROI on CAPEX drives Enterprise investments• Spending happens in cycles

Low lying fruit already picked• Easy Automation has been done

People are now the glue!• Most Expensive part of the value chain• Must create easier ways to link Applications and Services


Content &ApplicationProvider(s)

Advertiser

Web 2.0 changes the rules

Web2.0 Breaks incumbent business models• Services created by the few for the many• Now the users are the creators too

Produser - Producer & - Cosumer


Metcalfe’s Law

Power of a network with nnodes increases as:

n(n-1)/2

True of phones, email, firstapplications of the Internet

n=2 implies 1 connection

Source: Dean Economou


Metcalfe’s Law


n(n-1)/2


n=5 implies 10 possibleconnections



Metcalfe’s Law


n(n-1)/2


n=10 implies 45 possibleconnections



Reed’s Law

Power of a network with nnodes increases as thenumber of groups

2n-n-1

Example, social softwareon the web

n=5 implies 26 possiblegroups

Groups of 2…Source: Dean Economou


Reed’s Law


2n-n-1



Groups of 3…Source: Dean Economou


Reed’s Law


2n-n-1



Groups of 4 etc…Source: Dean Economou


Reed’s Law


2n-n-1

Example, social software onthe web


The internet has around1billion users…



Implications

Web2.0 Implications• Silent majority now has a voice• Businesses will tap the new pools of talent• Value add comes from relationships (Reed’s Law)• Virtual corporations can now emerge…. Quickly

Implications for IPv6 transition / deployment• Must enable genuine cost / time savings• Solution / Benefit must be unique to IPv6• Solution / Benefit must scale organically

IPv6 Transition Drivers


Business IPv6 Transition Drivers

Strong ROI / CAPEX / OPEX story

Increase use of Web-based Services• Service Oriented Architecture• Collaborative Service Networks• Services Ecosystems

Transition will centre around Smarter Services• Finance• Media• Government

SOA

CollaborativeService

Networks

ServiceEcosystems


Consumer IPv6 Transition Planning

Connectivity Enablers• Relationships: Family / Friends / Communities / Content

Must Enable Intersections…• People• Content• Devices

Core Themes to enable uptake• Ease of Use• Connectivity• Security


Summary

Web 2.0 movement is just beginning

Business Models will change dramatically

IPv6 will become a necessary part of the solution*