why i am optimistic patrick h. winston mit artificial intelligence laboratory
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC
Patrick H. Winston
MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory
![Page 2: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The salients
Applications side:
We have already won
Science side:
We are bound to win
![Page 3: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The Applications
![Page 4: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
We have expanded our frontiers
Lots of people
Lots of good
![Page 5: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
A little good for a lot of people
![Page 6: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
A little good for a lot of people
![Page 7: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
A lot of good for a few people
![Page 8: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
A lot of good for a lot of people
![Page 9: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
We have exemplars of all kinds
Large software companies
Large entertainment companies
Companies with huge IPOs
Multidimensional multinationals
A multitude of small companies
![Page 10: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
We were a one-horse field
Rule chaining
Inheritance
![Page 11: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Now we ride many horses
Rule chaining
Generate and test
Search
Tree building
Agents
Neural nets
Constraint propagation
Inheritance
Genetic algorithms
Bayes netsLearning
![Page 12: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
And not just reasoning horses
Vision Language and speech Infrastructure
![Page 13: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
We had a Pyrrhic victory
IO
MemoryCables Power
Tapes
Disk
Network
![Page 16: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
We learned negative lessons
Nobody cares about saving money
Using cutting edge technology To replace expensive experts
![Page 17: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
We learned positive lessons
Everybody cares about
New revenues Saving a mountain of money Increasing competitiveness
![Page 18: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
We changed the business model
ReplacesExpensivePeople
SavesMountainsOf Money
CreatesNewRevenue
Ferrets
Blunder stoppers
Novices
Experts
![Page 19: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
The critic and the billionaire
![Page 20: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
What’s next: connections
People
Global Net
Physical WorldComputers
EnhancedReality
Intelligent StructuresUseful robots
HumanComputerInteraction
InformationAccess
![Page 21: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
The click-in phenomenon
The fax machine The world wide web
![Page 22: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
The Science
![Page 23: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Shrobe’s point
Applications drive science Unless they all look alike
![Page 24: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Atkeson’s point
We could move to the center But, we might be kidding ourselves
![Page 25: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
My point
AI is applied computer science Much energy wonderfully used But consequently diverted
![Page 26: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
A 100 year enterprise
Molecular Biology
Artificial Intelligence
1950 2000 20501900
![Page 27: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Why we are the way we are
Powerful Ideas
Models of Thinking
Reflection…Biology…Psychology
TuringMinsky
![Page 28: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
The IntelligentReasoner
LanguageVision
Input/Output Channels
The standard paradigm
![Page 29: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
The dawn age
x
(1 - x )dx
4
2 5/2
![Page 30: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
What went wrong?
We think with our eyes We think with our mouths We think with our hands Each faculty helps the others
![Page 31: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
What is the evidence?
Armchair psychology
Clues from the brain
![Page 32: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Armchair psychology
Hillis’s observation on the value of talking to yourself
Everyone’s observation on the value of drawing a sketch.
![Page 33: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
From brain scanning
![Page 34: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Intelligence is in the I/O
The Explanation
MotorReasoner
LinguisticReasoner
VisualReasoner
![Page 35: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Is it time to start over?
An I/O oriented paradigm Essentially free computation Important, inspiring allies
![Page 36: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
From brain rewiring
![Page 37: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
From watching infants
![Page 38: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Is it time to start over?
An I/O oriented paradigm Essentially free computation Important, inspiring allies Accumulation of powerful ideas
![Page 39: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Six powerful ideas
Recreated condition One-shot learning Memory is cheap Change matters Survival of the smallest Bi-directional search
![Page 40: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Recreated condition: Minsky
P
/ \
P P
/ \
P P
/ \ / \
P P P P
/ \ / \ / \ / \
P P P P P P P P
/ \ / \ / \ / \ / \ / \ / \ / \
P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P P
*----------------------------------
|
| K-line
|
*-------------->
|
*--------->
![Page 41: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
One-shot: Yip and Sussman
ae p l
Time
WordMemory
RuleMemory
![Page 42: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
One-shot: Yip and Sussman
ae p l z
Time
RuleMemory
WordMemory
![Page 43: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
One-shot: Yip and Sussman
100%
Trials 500
Accuracy
![Page 44: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Memory is cheap: Atkeson
![Page 45: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Atkeson’s practice tables
![Page 46: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Atkeson’s practice results
One stored trajectory
Feedback only
Three stored trajectories
![Page 47: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Change matters: Borchardt
A
D
Appear
Disappear
Change
Decrease
Increase
A
D
Appear
Disappear
Change
Decrease
Increase
![Page 48: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Borchardt’s ladder diagrams
D A
D A
A A A
Distance
Speed
Contact
T1 T2 T4T3
![Page 49: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Survival of the smallest: Kirby
![Page 50: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Kirby’s phase transitions
Time
Coverage
![Page 51: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Bi-directional search: Ullman
Model
Image
![Page 52: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Joyous inferences
Powerful ideas Marvelous engineering Essential alliances
![Page 53: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
What about …
Bayes and Markov Neural nets and connectionism Logic
![Page 54: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
WHAT WE MUST NOT DO
![Page 55: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Loose our faith
It will take 300 years All the low hanging fruit is gone We shouldn’t make predictions
![Page 56: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Waste time arguing
Is it possible? Is it successful? Is it really AI?
![Page 57: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Squander our capital
One thousand people 10% interested in the science side 10% actually working on it 10% of the time
![Page 58: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
WHAT WESHOULD DO
![Page 59: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Human Intelligence Enterprise
Vision, language, motor Free hardware Clues from the brain Powerful ideas Conceive and test models
The Human Intelligence Enterprise
VisualReasoner
LinguisticReasoner
MotorReasoner
![Page 60: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Why we should do it
It can only be done once Revolutionary applications
The Human Intelligence Enterprise
VisualReasoner
LinguisticReasoner
MotorReasoner
![Page 61: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
What we should ask
Why do we have discrete words? What do our inner agents say? How do they learn what to say? Do we see what chimps see? How did our faculties evolve? Why can’t we all play the piano?
The Human Intelligence Enterprise
VisualReasoner
LinguisticReasoner
MotorReasoner
![Page 62: WHY I AM OPTIMISTIC Patrick H. Winston MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062409/5697bfbf1a28abf838ca3070/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
So, here is why I’m optimistic
Nothing could possibly be morefun, exciting, rewarding, and glorious, than …
Applications that really matter Figuring out our own intelligence
The Human Intelligence Enterprise
VisualReasoner
LinguisticReasoner
MotorReasoner