why educational attainment matters for economic … educational attainment matters for economic...

Why Educational Attainment Matters for

Economic Development

Presentation to the

Economic Forum

Presented by

Reed Dasenbrock, Ph.D.

Cabinet Secretary

New Mexico Higher Education Department

July 23, [email protected]

www.hed.state.nm.us505-476-6500 Fax: 505-476-6557

1068 Cerrillos Rd., Santa Fe NM 87505-1650

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.hed.state.nm.us/

Where Does the U.S. Stand?Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by

Age Group – U.S. and Leading OECD Countries

New Mexico Higher Education Department Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2007

How did we get here?Percent of adults with postsecondary degree, 55-64


36

22

10

24

17

22

27

14

16

37

24

27

25

19

21

24 2

4

22 2

1

13 1

2

23

14

15

7

8

11

8

11

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Canada

Japan

Korea

Norw

ay

Ireland

Belgium

Denm

ark

Spain

France

United S

tates

Australia

Finland

Sweden

Luxembourg

Iceland

Netherlands

United K

ingdom

Switzerland

New

Zealand

Poland

Greece

Germ

any

Austria

Hungary

Portugal

Mexico

Slovak R

epublic

Italy

Czech R

epublic

Turkey

Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2007

Percent of adults with postsecondary degree, 45-54

43

38

18

30

22

27

32

22

18

39

31

34

28

22

29

30

28

29 2

7

19

26

17 1

6

10

14

14

11

13

9

11

8

11

87

151

4

23

12

13

21

22

24

24

21

19

25

27

24

37

161

4

27

22

17

24

10

7

36

22

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Canada

Japan

Korea

Norw

ay

Ireland

Belgium

Denm

ark

Spain

France

United S

tates

Australia

Finland

Sweden

Luxembourg

Iceland

Netherlands

United K

ingdom

Switzerland

New

Zealand

Poland

Greece

Germ

any

Austria

Hungary

Portugal

Mexico

Slovak R

epublic

Italy

Czech R

epublic

Turkey

New Mexico Higher Education Department Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2007


9

50

47

36 35

30

33

35

30

25

41

27

34

30 30

32

16

26

26

19

17

13

16

13

14

11

8 7

11

87

1514

23

121

3

21

22

24

24

21

19

25

27

24

3736

22

10

24

17

22

27

14

16

13

11

1414

10

16

17

27

26

19

12

2928

302

9

22

28

34

31

39

43

38

18

30

22

27

32

22

18

8

13

28

28

32

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Canada

Japan

Korea

Norw

ay

Ireland

Belgium

Denm

ark

Spain

France

United S

tates

Australia

Finland

Sweden

Luxembourg

Iceland

Netherlands

United K

ingdom

Switzerland

New

Zealand

Poland

Greece

Germ

any

Austria

Hungary

Portugal

Mexico

Slovak Republic

Italy

Czech R

epublic

Turkey


41

14

54 53

51

41 41

41 4

0

40 39 3

8 37 37 3

6 35 35

31

26

20 19 1

8

16 16

12

7

11

8

11

8

7

151

4

13

12

23

21

22

24

24

21

19

25

27

24

37

161

4

27

22

17

24

10

22

36

9

13

11

14

14

10

16

17

26

27

12

19

2928

302

9

22

28

34

39

31

18

22

32

27

22

30

18

38

43

8

13

13

16

13

17

19

26

28

32

26

16

30

30

34

27

28

40

32

25

30

353

3

30

35

36

47

50

14

20

25

22

31

38

39

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Canada

Japan

Korea

Norw

ay

Ireland

Belgium

Denm

ark

Spain

France

United S

tates

Australia

Finland

Sweden

Luxembourg

Iceland

Netherlands

United K

ingdom

Switzerland

New

Zealand

Poland

Greece

Germ

any

Austria

Hungary

Portugal

Mexico

Slovak Republic

Italy

Czech R

epublic

Turkey



52

50

48

46

44

42

40

38

36

34

32

30

28

26

24

22

20

CanadaJapan

Korea

Norway/Ireland/Belgium

FranceUnited States

Denmark/Spain

Australia/Finland

Iceland/Netherlands/U.K.

Switzerland/New Zealand

Poland/Greece

Germany

Massachusetts

Minnesota

North Dakota

Connecticut/Colorado/New York

New Jersey/Vermont/New Hampshire

Illinois/Maryland/Nebraska

Virginia/Iowa

Wisconsin/RI/SD/WAPennsylvania/Kansas/Delaware

Hawaii

Utah/Montana

Michigan/North Carolina/Georgia

Ohio/MO/OR/WY/CA/FL/ME

IndianaIdaho/South Carolina/Arizona

Texas/Alabama/Tennessee/AlaskaOklahoma

Kentucky/New Mexico

Mississippi/Louisiana

West Virginia/Arkansas

Nevada

Sweden/Luxembourg


Dona Ana/De Baca

Harding/Sandoval/Grant

Curry/Socorro/Otero

64

60

56

52

48

44

40

36

32

28

24

20

16

12

8

CanadaJapan

Korea

Norway/Ireland/BelgiumDenmark/Spain

United StatesFrance

Australia/Finland/Sweden/LuxembourgIceland/Netherlands/U.K.

Switzerland/New Zealand

GreecePoland

MexicoPortugal

Turkey

Austria/Hungary

Czech Republic

Slovak Republic/Italy

Mora/Roosevelt/Catron

Luna/Union/Hidalgo

Quay/Torrance/McKinley

Lea/Eddy/Cibola

San Juan/Valencia/Sierra/Chavez

Rio Arriba/Lincoln

GermanyColfax/Taos

Guadalupe

Los Alamos

Bernalillo

Santa Fe/San Miguel


Percent of Population Age 25-64 with an

Associate Degree or Higher, 2006

New Mexico Higher Education Department Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

New Mexico Lags Behind U.S. As A Whole(Student Pipeline Loss, Transition Percentages 2004)

The Emerging Policy TriangleNew Mexico Higher Education Department

Of 100 9th Graders, How Many…

91.3

57.3

42.0

27.3

69.7

38.8

26.9

18.4

61.8

37.9

23.6

11.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

Graduate from

High School

Directly Enter College Enroll in Second Year Graduate Within 150%

of Program Time

Best Performing State United States New Mexico

Source: NCES Common Core Data, IPEDS Residency and Migration

Survey, IPEDS Enrollment Survey, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

NM % of US 88.7 97.7 87.7 64.7


In the Future

We Will All Need Even More Education

Jobs that require at least some postsecondary education will make up more than two-thirds of new jobs.

10%

22%

36%

31%

High SchoolDropout

High SchoolDiploma

SomePostsecondary

Bachelor's Degree

Share of new jobs, 2000–10

Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna M. Desrochers, Standards for What?

The Economic Roots of K–16 Reform, Educational Testing Service, 2003.New Mexico Higher Education Department

How New Mexico is Doing

New Mexico Statistics, 2004 Fall Enrollment Survey

Source: NCES-IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey (The Emerging Policy Triangle)

24%

38%

12%

26%

High School Dropout(38%)

High School Diploma(24%)

Some Postsecondary(26%)

Bachelor's Degree(12%)


Folks, We Have a Mismatch.

U.S. Statistics for Share

of New Jobs, 2000-2010

New Mexico Statistics

2004 Fall Enrollment Survey

U.S. Demand vs. New Mexico Supply

10%

22%

36%

31%

High SchoolDropout

High SchoolDiploma

SomePostsecondary

Bachelor'sDegree

24%

26%

12%

38%

High SchoolDropout

High SchoolDiploma

SomePostsecondary

Bachelor'sDegree



Poverty Status by Educational Attainment

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2006 Annual, Social and Economic

Supplement, Educational Attainment--People 25 Years Old and Over, by Total Money Earnings in

2005, Work Experience in 2005, Age, Race, Hispanic Origin, and Sex

Poverty Rate for the U.S. Population 25 Years and Over

31.80%

9.90%

5.80%

14.80%

3.60%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Less than high school

graduate

High school graduate

(includes GED)

Some college or

associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Graduate or

professional degree


Median Earnings of Persons Age 25 or Older by

Highest Education Attainment in the U.S.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2006 Annual, Social and Economic

Supplement, Educational Attainment--People 25 Years Old and Over, by Total Money Earnings in

2005, Work Experience in 2005, Age, Race, Hispanic Origin, and Sex

$17,422

$20,321

$26,505

$31,054

$35,009

$43,143

$52,390

$82,473

$70,853

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000

Less than 9th grade

9th to 12th grade

HS Graduate/GED

Some college

Associate

Bachelor

Masters

Professional

Doctorate

Educational Attainment and Income

New Mexico Higher Education Department Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey


Educational Attainment and Income

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey


Relationship Between Educational

Attainment and Health

Source: United Health Foundation, U.S. Census Bureau


Educational Attainment (Percent)


Reaching Top Performance by 2025 (55%) –

United States

94,510,473 Number of individuals to Match Best-Performance

Countries (55%)

31,382,831 Number of individuals to (Age 25-44) Who Already

Have Degrees

63,127,642 Additional Degree Production Needed (2005 to 2025)

40,605,747 Degrees Produced at a Current Annual Rate

of Production

7,045,932 Additional Residents with College Degrees

from Net Migration

15,626,080 Additional Degrees Needed

781,304 Additional Degrees Needed per Year (Currently

Produce 2,135,924 in All Sectors

52.8% Increase in Annual Associate and Bachelor’s Degree

Production Needed (in Public Sector Only)


How Can the U.S. Reach International

Competitiveness?

Source: 2005 ACS, PUMS

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