why climate models fail
TRANSCRIPT
Why Climate Models Fail
July 2014
Dr. Oliver Hemmers Research Project Director
UNLV
Climate Reports -‐ Warners
Climate Reports – SkepHcs
www.nipccreport.org
Some Physics -‐ Sorry
How can heat be transferred?
1. ConducHon 2. RadiaHon 3. ConvecHon 4. Phase TransiHons
What is Science?
• Science must be useful, meaningful, and interesHng. • Science means KNOWLEDGE
Endless, Growing, and never seUled
• Knowledge is gained by using the scienHfic method • Knowledge cannot be gained by consensus:
The apple falls off the tree is knowledge. You do not need consensus on that nor do you need to vote on that. No consensus would not change the outcome.
Mertonian Norms (CUDOS) Communalism—Scien6fic results belong to the whole community.
Universalism—Anyone can be apart of the scien6fic process.
Disinterestedness—Scien6sts should act for the good of the whole community not just their own gain.
Originality—Contribute something new.
Skep6cism—Views must survive cri6cal scru6ny before being accepted
Mertonian Norms (CUDOS) (The Ethics of Science)
Communalism—Scien6fic results belong to everyone.
Universalism—Anyone can be part of a scien6fic process, not just an “elite”.
Disinterestedness—Scien6sts should act for the good of the whole community not just for their own gain, career, or funding.
Originality—Contribute something new, interes6ng, useful, and meaningful.
Skep6cism—Views must survive cri6cal scru6ny (by self and others) before being accepted. This is the most important aspect of CUDOS. There is no gain of new knowledge without skep6cism.
Conceptual Model Building -‐ Hypothesis
Tes$ng Predic$on Falsifica$on
Unifica$on & Generaliza$on
ExplanaHon ValidaHon
Understanding MAJOR GOAL
MINOR GOAL
Facilita6ng Tools
ScienHfic Method
Carl Popper: Theory of Demarca6on
• All observaHon is selecHve and theory-‐laden—there are no pure or theory-‐free observaHons. Science consists of problem solving.
• A theory is scienHfic only if it can be refuted by an event.
• A scienHfic theory is conclusively falsifiable although it is not conclusively verifiable.
• An accepted theory has corroboraHon but is never proven it just remains valid unHl something else that is beUer comes along.
Science -‐ Pseudoscience
What is Weather?
• ConHnuous variances in physical condiHons Temperature change, precipitaHon, wind condiHons, cloud cover, air pressure, parHcle counts, etc.
• Weather depends on day-‐night cycles • Weather properHes are localized rather than
global • Weather also depends on seasons
What is Climate?
Localized Variances determined by 30+ years of weather records Seasons are part of a local climate No Global Climate
Change in Weather vs. Change in Climate
• Everyone knows how weather changes for a certain climate, so even when the climate does not change, the weather does change.
• A climate has a certain bandwidth of weather events, e.g., the number of hurricanes can vary each year as a natural uncertainty. That does not mean the climate changed it only reflects the natural variaHon for a certain climate.
• Therefore, it takes decades to detect any type of climate change.
Bad Climate QuesHons • Do climates change? • Is CO2 a greenhouse gas? • Does adding greenhouse gas cause warming? • Can man’s acHviHes cause increases in greenhouse gases?
• Can aerosols cool the climate?
These are yes-‐no quesHons and from a scienHfic point of view meaningless. In contrast how-‐much quesHons are more crucial to the scienHfic method.
Relevant Climate QuesHons
• What is the sensiHvity of global mean temperature to increases in greenhouse gases?
• What, if any, connecHon is there between weather events and global mean temperature anomaly?
• Is our understanding of the greenhouse effect adequate?
• How relevant is the simplisHc noHon of global mean radiaHve imbalance driving global mean temperature to actual climate change?
The pathological history of weather and climate modifica6on Three cycles of promise and hype
JAMES RODGER FLEMING hUp://www.colby.edu/sts/06_fleming_pathological.pdf
• Pluviculture: Western proprietary rainmaking 1839 to 1945 • Cloud Seeding: Commercial rainmaking, and the aUempted
weaponizaHon of the clouds from 1946 to 1978 • Geoengineering: Weather and climate modificaHon from 2003
U.S. NaHonal Research Council report, “CriHcal issues in weather modificaHon research.” U.S. Pentagon report, “An abrupt climate change scenario and its implicaHons for United States naHonal security,” that explored how global warming could lead to rapid and catastrophic global cooling.
The US military literally paved the trail to Mauna Loa for Climate Research Project Cirrus: GE, Army, Navy, and Air Force (1950)
In the arermath of Sputnik, Newsweek magazine warned readers of “a new race with the reds” in weather predicHon and control.
The catastrophic mode of discussing climate change is a reflecHon of other environmental crises…among them…nuclear fallout…
Same computer modeler who helped develop defense systems…Jay Forrester…first to publish quanHtaHve predicHons of environmental doomsday.
Maurice Strong, 1972 Stockholm, UN Conference on the Human Environment
Public discussions of environmental problems have been locked into “catastrophic” groove for decades, leaving liUle middle ground
ScienHsts who advised governments on the 1977 treaty to ban military uses of climate modificaHon crared first major reports on anthropogenic climate change. The two worldviews went hand in hand, both aUempHng projecHons of catastrophic climate consequences on a massive scale.
InternaHonal Panel on Climate Change formed in 1988 – PoliHcal Body with main Mission to determine the contribuHon of AGW to climate change.
From Climate as Weapon to IPCC
Roger Revelle 1957
Revelle, R., and H. Suess, Tellus 9, 18-‐27 (1957).
CO2 Increase
Aerosols vs. CO₂ & H₂O
• Climate scienHsts in the 1970’s said aerosols were responsible for the cooling trend since the 1940’s.
• The mechanism was said to be reduced transparency of the atmosphere to incoming light as a result of urban air polluHon (smoke, aerosols), agricultural air polluHon (dust), and volcanic ash.
• They said it caused a decline of about 0.2°C in the world mean surface temperature over the past quarter century. The range of predicted temperature decline was -‐1.5°C to -‐4°C.
Holdren, J. P., & Ehrlich, P. R. (1971). Global ecology; Readings toward a raHonal strategy for man. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.
APS Workshop Framing Document 2014
IPCC 2013
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentra6ons of greenhouse gases have increased.
IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers
The Accusa6on: CO₂ Causes Warming
Atmospheric CO₂ concentraHons increased by 120 PPM in the last 200 years (280 to 400 PPM). 50% over last 30 years & 30% since 1998.
About a 0.6 degree Celsius increase over past century. In the next century temperatures are predicted to rise 1.5 to 4.5 Degrees Celsius
THE CORRELATION…
Global Average Surface Temperature Is Increasing
73 Climate Models/Scenarios
hUp://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/06/sHll-‐epic-‐fail-‐73-‐climate-‐models-‐vs-‐measurements-‐running-‐5-‐year-‐means/
How Likely is the AGW?
PREDICTED CONSEQUENCES The CO₂ Caused Warming is Responsible For and
Will Also Increase:
• Flooding • Heat Waves • Habitat destruc6on • Shrinking Global Ice • Sea level rise • Psychological Trauma
in children (NPR ar6cle)
Climate and weather disasters in 2012 alone cost the American economy more than $100 billion hUp://www.whitehouse.gov/climate-‐change
• Drought • Famine • Disease • Wars • Mass Ex6nc6on of
Species • Extreme Cold • Ocean acidifica6on
Climate Forecas6ng Models Based On Greenhouse Theory Assume
• Climate is unchanged without the effects of greenhouse gases
• The earth is flat • The sun shines day & night with same intensity • Energy exchanges are almost all by radiaHon & are
balanced & instantaneous. • No work is done on the system • Natural climate properHes (Sun, ocean, &
everything in universe but anthropogenic greenhouse gases) are not only merely variable but are also negligible.
The IPCC ignores the Sun, Really? The Earth receives 99.98% of its energy from the Sun. The interacHon between Sun and Earth’s atmosphere create the climates and weather on Earth. Nevertheless, the IPCC assumes that the AGW that is esHmated to have an effect on the order of a few tenth of a percent of the total solar energy input – immeasurably small – has a bigger effect on Earth’s climate than solar variaHons.
Climate ForecasHng
• The basis that climate is highly sensiHve to added greenhouse gases follows from the assumpHons made in computer models.
• The relaHon of this sensiHvity to catastrophe does not emerge from the models, but rather from the fervid imaginaHon of climate acHvists.
Conceptual Model Building -‐ Hypothesis
Tes$ng Predic$on Falsifica$on
Unifica$on & Generaliza$on
ExplanaHon ValidaHon
“Understanding” MAJOR GOAL
MINOR GOAL
Facilita6ng Tools
IPCC “Meta-‐ScienHfic” Method
Why Climate Models Fail
1. CO2 alone can not cause predicted warming. 2. IPCC and mainstream climate science does not dispute this fact. GCMs, assume a high sensiHvity and a large posiHve water vapor feedback, which supposedly increases the warming many fold in response to forcing. 3. Water vapor is the more prevalent and potent greenhouse gas (5,000 PPM rough esHmate). HUp://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/gases.html hUp://www.ipcc.ch/publicaHons_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch8s8-‐6-‐3-‐1.html
David Archibald, The Four Horseman of the Apocalypse
The radia6ve forcing associated with atmospheric CO2 varies logarithmically with the concentra6on due the shape of the relevant absorp6on band and the strong satura6on of the band center.
Atmospheric Water Vapor Declining for over 60 Years
In 2014 it is 0.04% = 400 PPM
Mankind added 1 CO2 molecule (to the exisHng 3 CO2 molecules) for every 10,000 air molecules over the last 200 years!
!
40!Watts!(light!bulb)!
10,000!Watts!10,000,000!Watts!
Comparison of GHG Forcing to Atmosphere & Oceans
Atmosphere Oceans
GHG Forcing
Global Temperatures
hUp://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-‐global-‐temperatures/
CO2 @ 280 PPM
Today
hUp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/alley2000/alley2000.html
NaHonal Climate Assessment 2014 The Impacts Of Climate Change
7 Major sectors – human health, water, energy, transporta6on, agriculture, forests, and ecosystems
• Flooding due to higher Hdes, heavy downpours, and swollen rivers. • Wildfires come early stay later, burn more • Coastal Erosion due to missing sea ice in Alaska • Rising insurance rates due to increased and more frequent storms. • Droughts • Ocean acidificaHon • MelHng Ice on land and oceans • More pollen producHon for allergies • Less Food stability due to unstable weather • Water shortages • More diseases • Heat related illnesses and deaths • Habitat destrucHon for wildlife • Less economic growth and jobs
hUp://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/overview/overview
Proposed SoluHon
with CARBON TAX
$Billions
Energy Costs In United States
Electric price stability due to stable price of coal. hUp://www.eei.org/whatwedo/PublicPolicyAdvocacy/StateRegulaHon/Documents/rising_electricity_costs.pdf
Electricity Costs (2011)
Bjorn Lomborg hUp://online.wsj.com/news/arHcles/SB10001424127887323735604578436283452099120
• The EU's current efforts to meet its target for carbon cuts (20% below 1990 levels by 2020) are cosHng $250 billion per year in GDP growth, based on an average from five macro-‐economic models.
• Climate models show that if these were extended throughout the century at a cost of about $20 trillion, temperature rise by the end of the century would be reduced by a mere 0.1 degrees Fahrenheit
The Cost of CO2 ReducHons in Europe
What percent of society will we accept to live in energy poverty?
Issue 35/2013 (August 26, 2013) of DER SPIEGEL.
The carbon tax soluHon side admits there will not be enough affordable power for all.
In 2013, German consumers were forced to pay €20 billion ($26 b) for electricity from solar, wind and biogas plants – with a market price of just over €3 billion.
Energy poverty is defined by the number of households that must pay more than 10% of their net income on energy. All told 17% of German households finds itself in energy poverty, Spiegel writes.
What should be done?
Even when AGW is not an Issue
There is sHll a lot to do!
Sound Energy Policy should focus on:
Do we need the electricity? Can we afford the price?
Is it environmentally sound? How much can we produce? Is it economically sustainable?
Nine Environmental Issues that need our aUenHon now!!
• Energy Research
• Fresh water
• Phosphorus and other essen6al minerals
• Habitat destruc6on
• Invasive-‐species control
• Endangered species
• Pollu6on by directly toxic substances
• Fisheries
• Forests
Dr. Daniel Botkin -‐ Professor Emeritus, Department of Ecology, EvoluHon, and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara hUp://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/HHRG-‐113-‐SY-‐WState-‐DBotkin-‐20140529.pdf
Thank You
Whether the weather be hot, Whether the weather be cold. Whatever the weather, We’ll weather the weather, Whether we like it or not!