KENNETH WILSON, CATHERINE F SMITH, DONNA KAIN, MICHELLE COVI & DOUG

SOLOMONEAST CAROLINA UNIVERSITY

SOUTHERN SOCIOLOGY SOCIETY ANNUAL MEETING

APRIL 8, 2011

Who Considers Evacuation When a Hurricane

Approaches?

Research

Case study of hurricane risk and emergency communication in eastern NC 2008-2010

We surveyed 20 counties and interviewed 6 counties in-depth.

Surveyed Interviewed Residents (year-round) 1087 120 Businesses and Organizations 600 120

Local Government Officials NA 24 (EMs, PIOs, county commissioners, county managers)

Presentation Agenda

• This presentation focuses on identifying those who consider evacuation when a hurricane is approaching the coast.

• It uses the results of telephone/internet surveys in the 20 NC CAMA counties and

• Insights from interviews/focus groups in 6 counties

Households Respond to Severe Weather

Many households take the threat seriously

68% reported that they had a disaster preparedness plan

76% know the location of an emergency shelter

91% know the evacuation route from their home

82% know if an evacuation order covers their home

Households Respond to Severe Weather

Things are getting better and families are more willing to plan for an emergency today In our survey, 68% of respondents had a plan After Hurricane Floyd, only 56% had a plan After Hurricane Bonnie, only 49% had a plan

A Socioeconomic Impact Analysis for Hurricanes Bonnie, Dennis and Floyd by John C. Whitehead, Marieke Van Willigen, Bob Edwards, Kenneth Wilson and John Maiolo, the Final Report to North Carolina Division of Emergency Management (HMGP 1240-0012) and North Carolina Sea Grant (NCSU 1998-0617-08), June 2001.

Who has a plan?

  Table 2

  Factor Influences Having a Plan

    Have a Plan

    Exp(B) Sig Exp(B) Sig

Social Income     1.129 0.014

Background Education     1.195 0.006

Variables Age     1.156 0.080

  Married     0.957 0.827

  Children at Home     0.782 0.226

  Length of Residence     0.972 0.045

Risk Mobile Home, RV,Boat 0.743 0.211 1.113 0.681

Variables Evacuation Covers Home 1.184 0.005 1.151 0.028

  Neighbors Evacuate? 1.208 0.005 1.178 0.023

  Live in a Surge Zone 1.590 0.036 1.552 0.064

  Risk from Flooding 0.956 0.633 0.973 0.788

  Risk from Wind 1.045 0.628 1.028 0.774

  Constant 0.738 0.421 0.305 0.053

  Model Chi-Square(df) 28.233(6) .000 62.832(12) 0.000

  CV Block Chi-Square(df)     44.894(6) 0.006

  Risk Block Chi-Square(df) 28.233(6) .000 17.938(6) 0.000

  % Correct Predictions 70.1%    72.1%

  Cox & Snell R2 0.036     0.082

When Severe Weather Threatens…

Considerations

“Once you think your safety may be at risk, what are the most important considerations when deciding whether or not to evacuate?” Strength of the hurricane (93%) Direction of the hurricane (78%) A mandatory evacuation order (67%)

People want to make their own decision but your evacuation orders are part of their decision-making process

Households Respond to Severe Weather

14% reported at least one time they did not evacuate when they should have

Why: did not feel threatened (28%) did not realize how bad the storm would be (22%) thought the storm was not severe or close enough (15%).

While people are confident that they will make the right decision, people make mistakes.

Who prepares to leave?  Table 3

  Factor Influences Who Prepares to Evacuate

    Prepare to Evacuate

    Exp(B) Sig Exp(B) Sig

Social Income     1.049 0.591

Background Education     0.970 0.784

Variables Age     1.282 0.116

  Married     0.342 0.001

  Children at Home     1.908 0.061

  Length of Residence     0.974 0.267

Risk Mobile Home, RV,Boat 2.989 0.001 3.132 0.002

Variables Evacuation Covers Home 1.251 0.081 1.363 0.033

  Neighbors Evacuate? 1.511 0.000 1.553 0.000

  Live in a Surge Zone 0.939 0.859 1.064 0.871

  Risk from Flooding 0.992 0.959 0.921 0.631

  Risk from Wind 1.149 0.409 1.179 0.367

  Constant 0.007 0.000 0.004 0.000

  Model Chi-Square(df) 31.775(6) .00062.832(12)

0.000

  CV Block Chi-Square(df)    44.894(6)

0.006

  Risk Block Chi-Square(df) 31.775(6) .00017.938(6)

0.000

  % Correct Predictions 92.5%    72.1%

  Cox & Snell R2 0.040     0.082

Who prepares to make a decision?  Table 4

  Factor Influences Who Prepares to Decide

    Prepare to Decide

    Exp(B) Sig Exp(B) Sig

Social Income     1.062 0.181

Background Education     1.042 0.481

Variables Age     1.056 0.482

  Married     1.303 0.148

  Children at Home     1.274 0.197

  Length of Residence     0.956 0.001

Risk Mobile Home, RV,Boat 1.214 0.401 1.477 0.117

Variables Evacuation Covers Home 1.116 0.053 1.084 0.179

  Neighbors Evacuate? 1.114 0.072 1.107 0.113

  Live in a Surge Zone 1.474 0.048 1.551 0.035

  Risk from Flooding 1.063 0.487 1.080 0.408

  Risk from Wind 0.862 0.082 0.825 0.034

  Constant 0.898 0.763 0.944 0.920

  Model Chi-Square(df) 19.347(6) .000 62.832(12) 0.000

  CV Block Chi-Square(df)     44.894(6) 0.006

  Risk Block Chi-Square(df) 19.347(6) .000 17.938(6) 0.000

  % Correct Predictions 58.5%    72.1%

  Cox & Snell R2 0.024     0.082

Who prepares to ride out the storm?  Table 5

  Factor Influences Who Prepares to Ride Out the Storm

    Prepare to Stay

    Exp(B) Sig Exp(B) Sig

Social Income     0.920 0.082

Background Education     0.972 0.653

Variables Age     0.869 0.090

  Married     1.054 0.788

  Children at Home     0.614 0.017

  Length of Residence     1.061 0.000

Risk Mobile Home, RV,Boat 0.478 0.006 0.374 0.001

Variables Evacuation Covers Home 0.840 0.003 0.856 0.013

  Neighbors Evacuate? 0.754 0.000 0.745 0.000

  Live in a Surge Zone 0.673 0.063 0.602 0.025

  Risk from Flooding 0.926 0.415 0.940 0.537

  Risk from Wind 1.124 0.197 1.174 0.095

  Constant 1.753 0.136 1.688 0.391

  Model Chi-Square(df) 50.594(6) .000 84.579(12) 0.000

  CV Block Chi-Square(df)     30.694(6) 0.000

  Risk Block Chi-Square(df) 50.594(6) .000 53.884(12) 0.000

  % Correct Predictions 66.3%    68.8%

  Cox & Snell R2 0.062     0.108

Conclusions -- Planning

The risk variables show that people who know their home is covered by an Evacuation Order, whose Neighbors evacuate and who live in a Surge Zone, are more likely to have a plan.

Income and Education increase the likelihood of having a plan and length of residence decreases it.

When controlling for the background variables, Knowing that your home is covered by an evacuation order and having neighbors who evacuate still increase the likelihood of having a plan.

Conclusions -- Evacuating

Living in a Mobile Home, knowing that an evacuation Order covers your home and having neighbors who evacuate increase the likelihood that a household will prepare to leave.

Being married and length of residence decreases the likelihood that you will prepare to evacuate but having children living with you increases the likelihood.

After controlling for the background variables, the same risk variables influence the likelihood of preparing to leave.

Conclusions-- Deciding

Knowing that an evacuation order covers your home and living in a storm surge zone increases the likelihood of preparing to make a decision when a storm approaches.

When other variables are controlled, length of residence, living in a storm surge zone increase the likelihood of preparing to make a decision while a higher subjective risk of wind damage decreases the likelihood

Conclusions – Riding Out the Storm

Living in a risky structure, knowing that evacuation orders cover your home and having neighbors who evacuate decrease the likelihood that you will prepare to ride out the storm.

When other variables are controlled, having children living in the home decreases the likelihood that you will prepare to ride out the storm while longer length of residence increases it. Living in a risky structure, knowing that your home is covered by evacuation orders, having neighbors who evacuate and living in a storm surge zone decreases the likelihood that folks will prepare to ride out the storm.

Acknowledgements

“Hurricane Risk Perception and Emergency Communication Effectiveness in Coastal Zones”

Catherine F. Smith, Donna J. Kain, Kenneth Wilson Research Assistants Michelle Covi, Douglas Solomon, and others

Supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Sea Grant North Carolina and East Carolina University

For this report in full. . .

Http://www.ecu.edu/riskcomm