whitney tilson: lessons from a dozen years of short selling

7/21/2019 Whitney Tilson: Lessons From a Dozen Years of Short Selling

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:>tb jmmuje mdw yfrk

vjeud amvdstamc hfmcrdss•

Xdptdg`dr 1, 0>:< • Mdw Qfrk, MQ

Edssfms Irfg j Lfzdm Qdjrs fi Xbfrt Xdeeamc

Sbatmdy \aesfm, Kjsd Hjpatje

www.YjeudAmvdstamcHfmcrdss.hfg



Edssfms Irfg j Lfzdm Qdjrs fi Xbfrt Xdeeamc

Sbatmdy \aesfm

Yjeud Amvdstamc Hfmcrdss ‘ Mdw Qfrk

Xdptdg`dr 1, 0>:<



Kjsd Hjpatje Gjmjcdgdmt

As j Pdcastdrdl Amvdstgdmt Jlvasfr

Hjrmdcad Bjee \fwdr

:40 Sdst 43tb Xtrddt, <9tb Ieffr

Mdw Qfrk, MQ :>>:1

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Lashejagdr

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AMYDX\GDM\ ITMLX GJMJCDL @Q SBA\MDQ \AEXFM BJYD XBFP\^FXA\AFMX AM GJMQ (@T\ MF\ JEE) FI \BD X\FHKX GDM\AFMDL AM \BAX^PDXDM\J\AFM. BD BJX MF F@EACJ\AFM \F T^LJ\D \BD AMIFPGJ\AFMHFM\JAMDL BDPDAM JML GJQ GJKD AMYDX\GDM\ LDHAXAFMX \BJ\ JPDAMHFMXAX\DM\ SA\B \BD YADSX DR^PDXXDL AM \BAX ^PDXDM\J\AFM.

SD GJKD MF PD^PDXDM\J\AFM FP SJPPJM\ADX JX \F \BD

JHHTPJHQ, HFG^ED\DMDXX FP \AGDEAMDXX FI \BD AMIFPGJ\AFM,\DR\, CPJ^BAHX FP F\BDP A\DGX HFM\JAMDL AM \BAX ^PDXDM\J\AFM.SD DR^PDXXEQ LAXHEJAG JEE EAJ@AEA\Q IFP DPPFPX FP FGAXXAFMX AM,FP \BD GAXTXD FP GAXAM\DP^PD\J\AFM FI, JMQ AMIFPGJ\AFMHFM\JAMDL AM \BAX ^PDXDM\J\AFM.

^JX\ ^DPIFPGJMHD AX MF CTJPJM\DD FI IT\TPD PDXTE\X JML

IT\TPD PD\TPMX JPD MF\ CTJPJM\DDL.-8-



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:0 Pdjsfms Mft tf Xbfrt (:)(Dxhdrpt irfg Hbjptdr :: fi Gfrd Gfrtcjcd Gdetlfwm)

Xbfrtamc effkdl djsy am 0>>2, ùt am rdjeaty at's j `rutjeey tfucb ùsamdss. Am gjmy wjys, at jppdjrstf amvfevd mftbamc gfrd tbjm jppeyamc tbd sjgd jmjeysds fmd usds wbdm ldtdrgamamc wbdtbdr tf ùyj stfhk? fm tbd efmc sald, amvdstfrs cdmdrjeey sddk hfgpjmads watb cffl gjmjcdgdmt, strfmc crfwtb,bacb gjrcams jml rdturms fm hjpatje, eatted fr mf ld`t, hedjm `jejmhd sbddts, jml sustjamjèdhfgpdtatavd jlvjmtjcds ‘ jee jt j efw prahd. Hfmvdrsdey, sbfrt sdeedrs effk ifr wdjk fr lasbfmdstgjmjcdgdmt, efw fr mdcjtavd crfwtb, gjrcams jml rdturms fm hjpatje, bacb jml amhrdjsamc ld`t,jhhfumts rdhdavjèd jml amvdmtfry, jml wdjk hfgpdtatavd jlvjmtjcds ‘ jee jt j ralahuefusey bacb prahd.

@ut sbfrtamc as mft sagpey tbd fppfsatd fi efmc amvdstamc. At's guhb bjrldr jml gfrd ljmcdrfus ifr

j mug`dr fi rdjsfms?:. Qfur upsald as hjppdl jml yfur lfwmsald as umeagatdl ‘ prdhasdey tbd fppfsatd fi efmc pfsatafms. Sbdm

sbfrtamc stfhks, yfu hfuel `d racbt 2>% fi tbd tagd, ùt tbd efssds irfg tbd 0>% fi tbd tagd tbjt yfu'rd wrfmchfuel dxhddl tbd jhhuguejtdl prfiats. Sfrsd ydt, j fmhd-j-hdmtury stfrg suhb js tbd amtdrmdt ù`èd gacbtwapd yfu fut dmtardey. Ai tbdrd's dvdm j :% jmmuje rask fi suhb jm dvdmt, tbjt tamy rask trjmsejtds amtf j 81.4%hbjmhd fi tbd irdjk dvdmt fhhurramc fvdr 4> ydjrs.

0. \f prdvdmt suhb jm fhhurrdmhd, gfst sbfrt sdeedrs usd stfp efss eagats, gdjmamc tbdy waee stjrt hfvdramc tbdsbfrt ai at rums jcjamst tbdg j hdrtjam jgfumt. \bas gdjms sbfrt sdeedrs mft fmey bjvd tf `d racbt j`fut j stfhk,

ùt jesf j`fut tbd tagamc. Ai j stfhk rasds sacmaiahjmtey, gjmy sbfrt sdeedrs waee efhk am efssds, dvdm ai tbdy jrdejtdr prfvdm hfrrdht.

8. Am frldr tf sbfrt j stfhk, yfu iarst gust cdt tbd `frrfw irfg yfur `rfkdr, wbf bjs tbd pfwdr tf hjee am tbd stfhkyfu'vd `frrfwdl jt jmy tagd ‘ fr, wfrsd ydt, ùy stfhk tf hfvdr ifr yfu. @rfkdrs jrd gfst eakdey tf lf tbdsdtbamcs ai tbd stfhk as rasamc quahkey, jml tbdy'rd prf`jèy lfamc at tf ftbdr sbfrt sdeedrs js wdee jt tbd sjgd tagd,sf jee fi tbas ùyamc prdssurd hjm hjusd j stfhk tf rasd dvdm iurtbdr, traccdramc dvdm gfrd hfvdramc. \basvahafus hyhed as hjeedl j "sbfrt squddzd" jml at asm't prdtty ‘ wd hjm sbfw yfu tbd shjrs fm fur `jhks.

<. Xbfrtamc bjs cfttdm guhb gfrd hfgpdtatavd. \bdrd jrd mfw j idw tbfusjml bdlcd iumls (jml wbf kmfws bfwgjmy amlavaluje amvdstfrs) effkamc ifr tbd sjgd bjmliue fi cffl sbfrts, am hfmtrjst tf j idw lfzdm j hfuped fildhjlds jcf. \bas rdsuets am "hrfwldl" sbfrts, amhrdjsamc tbd flls fi j sbfrt squddzd.



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:0 Pdjsfms Mft tf Xbfrt (0)(Dxhdrpt irfg Hbjptdr :: fi Gfrd Gfrtcjcd Gdetlfwm)

4. J sbfrt squddzd hjm jesf `d hrdjtdl ai tbd "iefjt" ‘ tbd mug`dr fi sbjrds tbjt trjld irddey ‘ as sulldmey rdluhdl.Xuhb j hjsd fhhurrdl am Fhtf`dr 0>>2 wbdm ^frshbd, wbahb fwmdl 84% fi Yfekswjcdm, umdxpdhtdley lashefsdltbjt at bjl rjasdl ats stjkd am Yfekswjcdm tf 3<.:% tbrfucb tbd usd fi ldravjtavds. \bd Cdrgjm stjtd fi EfwdrXjxfmy, wbdrd Yfekswjcdm as `jsdl, fwms 0>%, sf tbjt edit j iefjt fi fmey j`fut 4% fi YS sbjrds fm tbd gjrkdt.\brdd pfpuejr bdlcd iuml trjlds bjl `ddm tf sbfrt YS `jsdl fm wdjkdmamc hjr ldgjml, cf efmc ^frshbd jmlsbfrt fut ats fwmdrsbap fi YS tf "hrdjtd" fmey ^frshbd, fr cf efmc YS prdidrrdl stfhk jml sbfrt tbd hfggfm stfhk,`dttamc fm rdejtavd umldrpdrifrgjmhd fi tbd hfggfm. Am jmy hjsd, ifr wbjtdvdr rdjsfm, mdjrey :8% fi jee YShfggfm sbjrds wdrd sbfrt, sf gfgdmts jitdr ^frshbd jmmfumhdl ats bacbdr stjkd, tbd gftbdr fi jee sbfrtsquddzds dmsudl jml tbd stfhk amstjmtey quamtupedl irfg $0>> tf fvdr $:,>>>, gfgdmtjraey gjkamc YS tbd gfst

vjeujèd hfgpjmy am tbd wfrel. \bas wjs dxtrjfrlamjraey pjamiue ifr gjmy sbfrts.9. Xbfrt sdeedrs usdl tf djrm amtdrdst fm tbd hjsb tbdy bdel wbaed tbdy wdrd sbfrt j stfhk, ùt tbas bjs jee ùt

lasjppdjrdl lud tf efw amtdrdst rjtds ‘ jml `rfkdrs dvdm hbjrcd "mdcjtavd rd`jtds" fm bjrl-tf-`frrfw stfhks,gdjmamc tbjt sbfrt sdeedrs bjvd tf pjy 4%, :>%, :4% fr gfrd am jmmuje amtdrdst tf cdt tbd `frrfw.

3. \bd efmc-tdrg upwjrl trdml fi tbd gjrkdt wfrks jcjamst yfu (yds, `deadvd at fr mft, gjrkdts usdl tf cf up gfst fitbd tagd).

2. Cjams jrd tjxdl jt tbd bacbdst, sbfrt-tdrg rjtd.

1. At cdmdrjeey rdquards gjmy gfrd amvdstgdmt ldhasafms, tbdrd`y amhrdjsamc tbd hbjmhds fi gjkamc j sdrafus gastjkd.

:>. At's j sbfrt-tdrg, bacb-strdss, trjlamc-fradmtdl styed fi amvdstamc tbjt rdquards hfmstjmt fvdrsacbt.::. Gastjkds burt yfur pfrtifeaf gfrd js tbdy hfgpfuml. Ai yfu gjkd j gastjkd watb j efmc pfsatafm, at dhfgds j

sgjeedr pdrhdmtjcd fi yfur pfrtifeaf js at lrfps. J gastjkdm sbfrt, bfwdvdr, crfws ejrcdr js at jpprdhajtds.

:0. Ai yfu cf puèah watb yfur sbfrt tbdsas, j hfgpjmy hjm jttjhk yfu am gjmy wjys? iaed j ejwsuat (Ijarijx), hfgpejam tfrdcuejtfrs (wbf fhhjsafmjeey amvdstacjtd) (G@AJ, Ijrgdr Gjh), tjp yfur pbfmd (Jeeadl Hjpatje), dth. Jesf, dxpdht tfcdt iejgdl fm gdssjcd `fjrls jml am tbd gdlaj. Gjmy pdfped vadw sbfrt sdeeamc js dvae jml um-Jgdrahjm.

Hfmheusafm (am 8/>1)? "wd'ee jcjam rdpdjt tbjt, dspdhajeey am tbas dmvarfmgdmt,

ifr gfst pdfped, wd tbamk sbfrtamc stfhks as j vdry `jl aldj."



Hjrmjcd am tbd Xbfrt Xdhtfr \fljy

• Yadwamc sbfrtamc js amsurjmhd as iamd ‘ js efmc js at's hbdjp• @ut at bjsm't `ddm hbdjp ‘ wbaed tbdrd wjs sfgd rdeadi am Jprae jml Gjy,

fvdrjee tbdrd's `ddm hjrmjcd am tbd sbfrt sdhtfr samhd tbd gjrkdt `fttfgdxjhtey 4· ydjr jcf fm Gjrhb 1, 0>>1

• 0>:8 wjs dspdhajeey `jl ‘ j fmhd-dvdry-:>-tf-0>-ydjr stfrg

• Xfgd sbfrt-fmey iumls bjvd hefsdl

• Xfgd bdlcd iumls bjvd ejumhbdl efmc-fmey iumls

• Gjmy bdlcd iumls bjvd rdluhdl tbdar sbfrt dxpfsurd, fitdmsu`stjmtajeey

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Sbjt Xbfrt Xdeedrs Sdrd Xjyamc

Luramc tbd Gdet-Tp fi 0>:8

• "@damc `djrasb am tbd ùee gjrkdt bjs `ddm, tbus ijr, j guc's cjgd jmlj bdlcd jcjamst prfiats." ‘ Lfuc Kjss

• "Sd'vd jesf tjkdm fur eugps tbas ydjr fm tbd sbfrt sald (jml samhdGjrhb 1, 0>>1) sf wd kmfw bfw yfu idde. Ifr wbjt at's wfrtb, wd jcrddtbjt tbas as tbd `dst dmvarfmgdmt tf iaml sbfrts jml wd jrd sddamc sfgdamhrdlaèd fppfrtumatads. Sd bjvdm't sddm j vjrajmhd eakd tbas `dtwddm

fur efmcs jml sbfrts samhd djrey 0>>2. Xf, wbaed A idde eakd A'g hfvdrdlam `jtted wfumls jml bjvd èffl lrappamc fut fi gy dyd `jees jt tbd dmlfi djhb ljy, A jg hfmialdmt wd waee `d rdwjrldl ifr stjyamc tbd hfursd." ‘ J iradml

• "A lfm't bjvd tbd jmtalftd tf yfur pjam. Sd'vd `ddm èulcdfmdl `y tbas

gdet-up js wdee. At's um`deadvjèy umpedjsjmt. A'vd mdvdr sddm suhbwaldsprdjl hjpatuejtafm jgfmc sdjsfmdl sbfrt sdeedrs. Gjmy jrd fut fiùsamdss. \bas strdthb as wfrsd tbjm tbd amtdrmdt ù`èd ifr gd. At'shfmstjmt pjam jhrfss gy dmtard sbfrt `ffk, wbdrdjs tbd amtdrmdt wjsasfejtdl tf fmd amlustry ‘ jml tbdm yfu cft rdeadi wbdm tbd ù`èdùrst." ‘ Jmftbdr iradml

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Mamd Pdjsfms tf Xbfrt (:)

:. Ai yfu'rd vdry cffl jt at, yfu hjm gjkd gfmdy fvdr tagd.0. Bjvamc j sbfrt `ffk jeefws gd tf amvdst gfrd jccrdssavdey fm tbd efmc

sald, `ftb am tdrgs fi fvdrjee pfrtifeaf pfsatafmamc, amlavaluje pfsatafmsazds, jml waeeamcmdss tf tjkd rasks am hdrtjam stfhks. Bdrd jrd sfgddxjgpeds?

• A wfuelm't `d hfgifrtj`ed tjkamc gy iuml's efmc dxpfsurd up tf :>>% am tbd

hurrdmt gjrkdt ai at lalm't bjvd gdjmamciue sbfrt dxpfsurd;

• A wfuelm't bjvd bdel fmtf gy pfsatafm am Mdtieax js at's rasdm irfg oust j`fvd$4> tf mdjrey $4>> fvdr tbd pjst twf ydjrs ai gy iuml wjsm't sbfrt jmug`dr fi sagaejrey vfejtaed, spdhuejtavd stfhks;

• A wfuelm't bfel suhb j ejrcd pfsatafm am Bfwjrl Bucbds, jmftbdr bucdwammdr ifr us, ai gy iuml wdrdm't sbfrt Xt. Ofd, wbahb as jesf hefsdey tadl tf

tbd rdje dstjtd/bfusamc gjrkdt; jml• A'g mft surd A wfuel idde hfgifrtj`ed fwmamc dhfmfgahjeey sdmsatavd stfhks

eakd \dtrjcfm (gy mdwdst efmc), Jvas jml Bdrtz, ifur jareamd stfhks, dth. aigy iuml wdrdm't sbfrt gjmy stfhks tbjt A dxpdht wfuel lf vdry pffrey ai tbddhfmfgy wdjkdms.

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Mamd Pdjsfms tf Xbfrt (0)

8. J sbfrt `ffk typahjeey pjys fii oust wbdm yfu mddl at gfst, luramcsdvdrd gjrkdt ldheamds, prfvalamc hjsb ‘ jml tbd psyhbfefcahje `ffst ‘ tf amvdst jccrdssavdey fm tbd efmc sald wbdm at's gfst jttrjhtavd. At jesfstdgs amvdstfr rdldgptafms, wbahb as diidhtavdey jmftbdr sfurhd fihjsb.

• \bas as dxjhtey wbjt bjppdmdl tf gd am 0>>2 jml djrey 0>>1. Jitdr amieahtamc

efssds js tbd gjrkdt rfsd irfg djrey 0>>8 tbrfucb Fhtf`dr 0>>3 (tbd sjgdedmctb fi tagd js tbd hurrdmt ùee gjrkdt), gy su`stjmtaje sbfrt `ffkhusbafmdl tbd lfwmturm ‘ gy iuml wjs lfwm jpprfxagjtdey bjei tbd gjrkdtam 0>>2 ‘ jml jeefwdl gd tf amvdst jccrdssavdey fm tbd efmc sald, wbahbtrjmsejtdl amtf àc cjams jitdr tbd gjrkdt `fttfgdl am Gjrhb 0>>1.

<. A seddp `dttdr jt macbt watb amsurjmhd. Jt tbd `dcammamc fi dvdry ydjr, A

wratd j hbdhk ifr bfgdfwmdr's amsurjmhd jml jt tbd dml fi tbd ydjr,wbdm gy jpjrtgdmt bjsm't suiidrdl irfg j ieffl fr iard, gy amsurjmhddxpards wfrtbedss jml A bjvd tf ùy at jcjam. As at j gastjkd tf ùyamsurjmhd tbjt turms fut tf `d wfrtbedss jegfst dvdry ydjr6 Fi hfursdmft.

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Mamd Pdjsfms tf Xbfrt (8)

4. \bd psyhbah rdwjrls jrd dmfrgfus?• Xbfrtamc as guhb gfrd hfmtrjrajm tbjm ùyamc jm fut-fi-ijvfr stfhk

• At‑s amhrdlaèy amtdrdstamc jml dmtdrtjamamc tbjmks tf tbd prdpfstdrfus eadsjml amhrdlaèd hjst fi hbjrjhtdrs yfu dmhfumtdr ‘ sbystdrs, hrffks,hbjrejtjms, prfgftdrs, dth.

• At iddes cffl tf `dt jcjamst tbdsd hrdtams

• Ifr jee tbdsd rdjsfms, gjkamc $: fm tbd sbfrt sald as 4-:>x gfrd crjtaiyamctbjm gjkamc $: fm tbd efmc sald

9. Ldvdefpamc tbd gamlsdt fi j sbfrt sdeedr bjs `ddm vdry vjeujèd?dxtrdgd skdptahasg, kmfwamc wbdrd tf effk ifr `fg`s fm j `jejmhdsbddt, dth.

3. At puts gd am tbd iefw fi sbfrt aldjs, sf A fitdm bdjr/rdjl j`futprfèdgs watb hfgpjmads wbfsd stfhks A‑g efmc (fr hfmsaldramc cfamcefmc), wbahb bjs sjvdl gd irfg sfgd èfwups/vjeud trjps.

2. At kddps gd fhhupadl sf A lfm‑t lf stupal tbamcs watb gy efmc `ffk eakdsdee j wammdr fr cdt agpjtadmt jml sdee j stfhk racbt `difrd at ougps.

1. Gfst amvdstfrs dxpdht bdlcd iumls tf bjvd j sbfrt `ffk.

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Xuggjry? A Bjvd Hfmieahtamc

\bfucbts fm Xbfrtamc Pacbt Mfw

A bjvd twf strfmc iddeamcs j`fut sbfrtamc racbt mfw?:. At's j bfrra ed ùsamdss, at's hfst gd (jml gy amvdstfrs) j ifrtumd fvdr tbd pjst 4· ydjrs, A

wasb A'l mdvdr bdjrl fi at, jml dvdry `fmd am gy `fly wjmts tf hfvdr dvdry stfhk A'g sbfrtjml mdvdr sbfrt jmftbdr stfhk jcjam; jml

0. Am gy :4+ ydjrs fi prfidssafmje amvdstamc, tbd fmey ftbdr tagds tbjt bjvd `ddm js tjrcdt-rahb am tdrgs fi ouahy, f`vafus sbfrts jrd ejtd :111/djrey 0>>> jml ejtd 0>>3/djrey 0>>2(jml wd jee kmfw bfw tbfsd dmldl…). Gy `fttfgs-up rdsdjrhb as umhfvdramc j crdjt mdw

sbfrt aldj dvdry ljy , ùt fmey fmd crdjt mdw efmc aldj dvdry gfmtbXf wbahb iddeamc jg A cfamc tf ifeefw6 A lfm't kmfw, ùt tbas A kmfw ifr surd? tbd fmeyftbdr tagd A idet eakd hfvdramc dvdry sbfrt jml `dhfgamc j efmc-fmey gjmjcdr wjsFhtf`dr 0>>3. Jt tbjt tagd, A wdmt tbrfucb gy sbfrt `ffk, stfhk `y stfhk, jml sjal,"FK, jg A waeeamc tf hfvdr G@AJ jt $3>6 Bdee mf, mft j samced sbjrd! Jeeadl Hjpatje jt$8>6 Bdee mf, mft j samced sbjrd! Ijrgdr Gjh jt $8>6 Bdee mf, mft j samced sbjrd!"

Jml fm at wdmt… A hfuelm't `ramc gysdei tf hfvdr j samced sbjrd fi jmy stfhk A wjs

sbfrt ‘ tbdy wdrd jee "trdgèamc-watb-crddl" sbfrts.

Jml tbjt's dxjhtey bfw A idde tfljy. A effk jt tbd stfhks A'g sbfrt ‘ jee fi wbahb A tbamkjrd j`surley fvdrvjeudl jml surd tf hfeejpsd ‘ jml idde amtdmsdey tbjt hfvdramc tbdgmfw wfuel `d tbd gfst `fmdbdjldl hjpatuejtafm trjld fi jee tagd.

\bjt sjal, umeakd am 0>>3, A lfm't bjvd tbd sjgd ifrd`flamc iddeamc tbjt tbdrd's jcffl hbjmhd tbjt tbd wfrel waee ijee jpjrt am tbd mdxt ydjr fr twf (tbfucb at's

pfssaèd), wbahb gjkds `damc sbfrt tbjt guhb bjrldr… -::-



Xfurhds fi Cffl Xbfrt Aldjs

• Ftbdr sbfrt sdeedrs• Huetavjtd rdejtafmsbaps, ùael mdtwfrks, swjp aldjs

• Jttdml amvdstamc hfmidrdmhds

• Yjeud Amvdstamc Hfmcrdss

• Yjeud Amvdstamc Xdgamjr (Atjey)

• Pfàm Bffl Amvdstfrs Hfmidrdmhd

• Arj Xfbm Hfmidrdmhd

• Yjeud Amvdstfr Amsacbt

• YjeudAmvdstfrsHeu`.hfg

• Hjm jhhdss aldjs js j cudst watb j 8>-ljy ldejy

• Jhtavast Xbfrts Pdsdjrhb (www.jhtavastsbfrts.hfg)

• Xddkamc Jepbj

• Xug_drf

• Hatrfmrdsdjrhb.hfg

• Xtfhk shrddms

• Mdwspjpdrs, gjcjzamds, ùsamdss tdedvasafm

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Edssfm? @d Lavdrsaiadl jml \ry tf

Gjthb Efmc jml Xbfrt ^fsatafms

• @d lavdrsaiadl• Tmtae j ydjr jcf, A wjs gjmjcamc gy sbfrt `ffk eakd A gjmjcd gy efmc `ffk, ùt

bjei tbd pfsatafm sazd; tbus, fm tbd efmc sald A bjl :0-:4 4-9% pfsatafms jml fmtbd sbfrt sald A bjl j lfzdm pfsatafms jvdrjcamc 0.4%

• A edjrmdl tbd bjrl wjy tbjt j 0.4% sbfrt pfsatafm as, am gfst hjsds, tff ejrcd; aisuhb j pfsatafm cfds pjrj`feah, js sfgd bjvd lfmd, at's vdry pjamiue jml ifrhds

yfu tf hfvdr tf gjmjcd rask• \fljy A bjvd ~4> pfsatafms jvdrjcamc ~:%

• \ry tf gjthb efmc jml sbfrt pfsatafms

• \bdrd's j sdrafus gasgjthb `dtwddm j efmc `ffk ifhusdl fm ejrcd-hjp èud-hbapseakd @drksbard Bjtbjwjy, JAC, ^rfhtdr & Cjgèd, Gahrfsfit, jml DxxfmGfàe (Afwm tbd iarst twf), jml j sbfrt `ffk ifhusdl fm sgjeedr, gfrd vfejtaed, bdjvaey

sbfrtdl, `jttedcrfuml stfhks• \bdsd stfhks tdml tf `d tbd gfst fvdrvjeudl jml bjvd tbd pftdmtaje tf ijee tbd

iurtbdst ‘ fitdm, A `deadvd, :>>% ‘ ùt tbdy hjm jesf rasd tbd gfst luramc pdraflsfi dxhdss eaqualaty jml hfgpejhdmhy (eakd tfljy)

• Fwmamc raskadr (jml bdjvaey sbfrtdl) stfhks eakd Mdtieax, gjcahOjhk, Xfljstrdjgjml Ldhkdrs (sfel djreadr tbas ydjr) hjm `jejmhd tbd pjam fm tbd sbfrt sald

• Ai yfu bjvd j ejrcd-hjp, efw-`dtj efmc `ffk, effk ifr sbfrts eakd A@G-:8-



Xtfhks Tsujeey Ifeefw Djrmamcs

• Dvdm tbd gfst wdee-puèahazdl, jartacbt hjsd tbjt j hfgpjmy as, ifr dxjgped, hfggattamcèjtjmt jhhfumtamc irjul, àekamc ats hustfgdrs, as ljmcdrfusey umldrrdsdrvdl jmlfvdredvdrdl, dth. as usujeey mft dmfucb tf hjusd tbd stfhk tf ldheamd gjtdrajeey

• Js efmc js j hfgpjmy hfmtamuds tf rdpfrt crfwamc djrmamcs, at‑s cdmdrjeey sjid tfjssugd tbjt ats stfhk waee hfmtamud tf rasd js wdee

• Bastfrahje Dxjgpeds? Jeeadl Hjpatje (Ljval Dambfrm) jml G@AJ (@aee Jhkgjm)

• @aee Jhkgjm puèasbdl j ldvjstjtamc 99-pjcd rdpfrt fm :0/1/>0 dmtatedl As G@AJ \raped J6 jmlam su`sdqudmt ydjrs bd hfmtamudl tf wjrm amvdstfrs, rjtamcs jcdmhads jml rdcuejtfrs j`fut tbdhfgpjmy jml tbd ljmcdr at wjs hjusamc tf tbd iamjmhaje systdg

• @ut mf`fly hjrdl js efmc js tbd hfgpjmy hfmtamudl tf rdpfrt strfmc djrmamcs, sf tbd stfhklfuèdl ‘ umtae tbd iamjmhaje systdg hfeejpsdl, js lal G@AJ‑s djrmamcs jml stfhk prahd

-:<-

G@AJ

Jhkgjm puèasbdsAs G@AJ \raped J6

Dvdrytbamc Jhkgjm wjrmdlj`fut hfgds tf

pjss ‘ iavd

ydjrs ejtdr!

Xtfhk lfuèds



• @d hjrdiue fi hfgpjmads suhhdssiueey pejyamc tbd "`djt m' rjasd cjgd"• Dvdry qujrtdr tbdy `djt tbdar djrmamcs dstagjtds jml rjasd cualjmhd

• \bdrd as mf prahd j stfhk hjm't cf tf, dspdhajeey ai at's j bacb-qujeaty `usamdss

• Dxjgpeds (mfmd fi wbahb A'g sbfrt)? EamkdlAm, Ijhd`ffk, \rapJlvasfr jml ^rahdeamd

@dwjrd fi tbd "@djt M' Pjasd" Cjgd

-:4-

EamkdlAm Ijhd`ffk

\rapJlvasfr ^rahdeamd



@d ^jtadmt

• @d pjtadmt• A'vd `ddm rdjsfmjèy suhhdssiue fvdr tbd ydjrs am `damc jèd tf aldmtaiy bucdey

fvdrvjeudl stfhks, ùt bjvd `ddm edss suhhdssiue am cdttamc tbd tagamc racbt

• Am suhb hjsds, A hfrrdhtey ifrdsdd wbjt's cfamc tf bjppdm am j ydjr fr twf, ùtbacbey prfgftafmje gjmjcdgdmt, js jewjys hbddrdl fm `y Sjee Xt., lupdsamvdstfrs amtf acmframc bucd rdl iejcs ‘ jml tbd stfhks rum up j eft am tbd sbfrt

tdrg• A'vd hdrtjamey cjamdl j crdjtdr jpprdhajtafm ifr tbd pfwdr fi sbfrt-tdrg stfhk prahd

gfgdmtug jml jg cfamc tf gjkd gfrd fi jm diifrt tf `d pjtadmt, stjy fut fi tbdwjy fi irdacbt trjams fm tbd wjy up, jml lf wbjt tbd `dst sbfrt sdeedrs lf? gjkdgfmdy `y jllamc tf sbfrts tbjt jrd wfrkamc fm tbd wjy lfwm

• Dxjgpeds?

• Edbgjm @rftbdrs• Hrfhs

-:9-

Hrfhs



Effk ifr ―\atjmahs‗

• ―\atjmahs‗ jrd stfhks tbjt A `deadvd bjvd suiidrdl gjofr (dvdm gfrtje)wfumls, `ut tbd gjrkdt bjsm‑t iacurdl at fut ydt sf tbd `jml as staee pejyamc

• Dxjgpeds? A tbamk at‑s eakdey tbjt K:0 jml Mdustjr jrd tbd prfhdss fi efsamchfmtrjhts tbjt jhhfumt ifr ~04% jml ~2>% fi D@A\LJ

• Mugdrfus rdcuejtfrs jrd amvdstacjtamc Bdr`jeaid jml Sfrel Jhhdptjmhd,mdatbdr fi wbahb hjm watbstjml shrutamy A `deadvd

-:3-

Bdr`jeaid Sfrel Jhhdptjmhd

K:0 Mdustjr



Effk ifr F`vafus @u`èds (:)Dxjgpeds? 8L ^ramtamc & Jetdrmjtavd ^fwdr

• \bdrd's jewjys rffg ifr f`vafus ù`èds• @ut sazd tbdg sgjee!

-:2-

Frcjmfvf

8L Xystdgs Dxfmd

@jeejrl fwdr



Effk ifr F`vafus @u``eds (0)Dxjgpeds? XjjX & @aftdhb/^bjrgj

-:1-

Jrdmj ^bjrgjhdutahjes

\dxturj

Pjptfr ^bjrgjhdutahje

Hjsteacbt Bdjetb

• Effk ifr tbarl-tadr, gd-tff pejydrs



Hfmheusafm

• Xbfrtamc as j vdry laiiahuet ùsamdss• Xazd pfsatafms sgjee

• @jejmhd efmc jml sbfrt `ffk

• @d pjtadmt

• Xtfhks tdml tf ifeefw djrmamcs mft jmjeysas fr bdjleamds

• Fitdm tbdrd as tagd tf cdt amtf j sbfrt jitdr tbd wratamc as fm tbd wjee• Xbfrt stfhk rjtbdr tbjm usd fptafms

• Effk ifr guetaped wjys tf wam

• Ydry bacb vjeujtafm ‘ ijr j`fvd bastfrahje jml pddr jvdrjcds

• Ydry bacb gjrcams ‘ ijr j`fvd bastfrahje jml pddr jvdrjcds, jml wbjthfggfm sdmsd sjys as pfssaèd

• J ijl hfgamc tf jm dml

• Gjrkdt umldr-rdjhts tf jm djrmamcs gass/cuald lfwm, rdcuejtfry jhtafm, dth.

• Agpjht fi mdw hfgpdtatfrs

• Pdcuejtfry prfèdgs

-0>-



Jm Tpljtd fi \wf ^jst Ijvfratd Xbfrt Aldjs ‘

Jml Gy Hurrdmt Ijvfratd



Tpljtd fm K:0 (EPM)^rdsdmtdl jt tbd Yjeud Amvdstamc Hfmcrdss

fm Xdptdg`dr :3, 0>:8

(tbd dmtard prdsdmtjtafm as pfstdl jt?www.taesfmiumls.hfg/EPM.pli)

^rdsdmtdl fm 1/:3/:8



Eakd su`pragd edmlamc jml ifr-prfiat hfeedcds, tbd ùsamdss gjkds sdmsd fm j sgjee shjed ùt,

iudedl `y ejx rdcuejtafm jml djsy cfvdrmgdmt gfmdy, tbd sdhtfr, edl `y K:0, bjs rum jgfk-08-


Xuggjry fi Sby A'g Xbfrt K:0's Xtfhk

• K:0's jccrdssavd stuldmt rdhruatgdmt bjs edl tf lasgje jhjldgah rdsuets `y stuldmts

jml sky-bacb lrfpfut rjtds, am sfgd hjsds gfrd tbjm 4>% jmmujeey• A wfuelm't `d sbfrt K:0 ai at wdrd hjrdiueey tjrcdtamc stuldmts wbf wdrd eakdey tf `dmdiat irfg ats

shbffes ‘ typahjeey tbfsd wbf bjvd j bacb ldcrdd fi sdei-gftavjtafm jml strfmc pjrdmtjehfggatgdmt

@ut K:0 amstdjl jppdjrs tf `d lfamc tbd fppfsatd; mugdrfus ifrgdr dgpefydds sjy tbjt K:0 jhhdptsprdtty guhb jmy stuldmt jml gjy dvdm `d tjrcdtamc jt-rask stuldmts, wbf jrd edjst eakdey tf suhhddl amjm fmeamd shbffe

• \bdrd bjvd `ddm sf gjmy rdcuejtfry assuds jml jhhusjtafms fi gjeidjsjmhd tbjt A'ghfmvamhdl tbd prfèdgs jrd dmldgah

• Dmrfeegdmt vafejtafms, umhdrtaiadl tdjhbdrs, aeedcjeey sapbfmamc prfiats irfg mfmprfiat dmtatads

• Xtjtds (jml tbd APX) jrd wjkamc up tf wbjt K:0 as lfamc jml tbd hfgpjmy as hfgamcumldr amhrdjsdl shrutamy, wbahb as `dcammamc tf agpjar K:0's crfwtb ‘ jml A `deadvdtbas trdml waee jhhdedrjtd

• K:0's ifumldr, Kmfwedlcd Tmavdrsd, lastraùtdl ats dmtard stjkd tf ats amvdstfrs djreadrtbas gfmtb

• Qdt tbd stfhk, trjlamc jt mdjrey 4>x trjaeamc djrmamcs, as prahdl js ai K:0 waee hfmtamud tfcrfw jt bacb rjtds ifr tbd ifrdsddjèd iuturd jml jesf agprfvd fm ats pdrsastdmtey efwgjrcams jml irdd hjsb iefw




-0<-


Hfmheusafms jml Hjtjeysts

• K:0 as pursuamc j crfwtb-jt-jmy-hfst strjtdcy tbjt as bjrgamc hfumtedss stuldmts,eakdey vafejtamc mugdrfus stjtd ejws jml rdcuejtafms, jml wjstamc bumlrdls figaeeafms fi lfeejrs fi tjxpjydr gfmdy dvdry ydjr.

• Sbjt tbd hfgpjmy as lfamc as `dhfgamc amhrdjsamcey wdee-kmfwm sf stjtds ‘ jmlpfssaèy tbd APX ‘ jrd wjkamc up jml tbus tbd hfgpjmy ijhds amhrdjsdl shrutamyjml rdcuejtfry rask

• \bd eakdey rdsuet as tbjt K:0 waee mft fmey gass ats crfwtb prfodhtafms (jmjeysts

prfodht tbjt K:0's rdvdmuds jml prfiats waee crfw :9% jml 80%, rdspdhtavdey, am tbdmdxt ydjr), ùt waee jhtujeey bjvd tf sbramk su`stjmtajeey am frldr tf prfpdrey sdrvdstuldmts (jml stjtds/tjxpjydrs)

• ^fssaèd sbfrt-tdrg hjtjeyst? tbd hfgpjmy hfuel lasjppfamt wbdm at assuds IQ0>:< cualjmhd am gal-Fhtf`dr jml/fr wbdm at rdpfrts Z: ':< djrmamcs am djreyMfvdg`dr `dhjusd?

• Crfwtb bjs `ddm sefwamc• ^rdeagamjry dmrfeegdmt ljtj jt j idw shbffes jrd wdjk

• Jmjeysts sddg tf `d ijhtframc am rasamc gjrcams jml hfmtamudl crfwtb amrdvdmud pdr stuldmt, `ftb fi wbahb A tbamk jrd umeakdey

\rjlamc jt mdjrey 4>x trjaeamc djrmamcs, K:0's stfhk as prahdl ifr

pdridhtafm, ydt ats iuturd as eakdey tf `d ijr irfg pdridht



-04-

K:0's Xtfhk Bjs @ddm Hut Am Bjei

Xamhd Gy ^rdsdmtjtafm

Xfurhd? @acHbjrts.hfg.

K:0 Xamhd Gy ^rdsdmtjtafm



-09-

K:0‑s Jhjldgah Pdsuets \rjae \bfsd fi tbd

Hfmmdhtafms, Xdhfml-Ejrcdst Hy`dr Xhbffe Fpdrjtfr

Xfurhd? Gjamd Hfmmdhtafms Jhjldgy Yartuje Hbjrtdr Xhbffe Jppeahjtafm, :0/0/:8.

Pdjlamc/DEJ



-03-




Gjtb



-02-




Xhadmhd



-01-




Sratamc

Lud tf ^ffr Jhjldgah Pdsuets, K:0 As @damc



-8>-

Lud tf ^ffr Jhjldgah Pdsuets, K:0 As @damc

Ifrhdl tf Bard Gfrd \djhbdrs, Sbahb Saee Burt

Gjrcams Cfamc Ifrwjrl

• Zudstafm (Z< hfmidrdmhd hjee, 2/:</:<)?\bd tbamcs tbjt yfu tjekdl j`fut prfvalamc gfrd tdjhbdrs, gfrd by`ral edjrmamc

dmvarfmgdmt, tbjt jee sfumls jee eakd j crfwtb am gjrkdt fppfrtumaty jml agprfvdsfuthfgd. At jesf hfmtamuds tf `d gjrcam prfiaed. Xf hfuel yfu oust hfggdmt fm kamlfi tbd agpjht fm tbd hfst sald irfg tbfsd tbamcs6

• Mjtd Ljvas, K:0‑s Hbjargjm & HDF?

A lf `deadvd tbjt at waee amhrdjsd hfst am tbd hfgamc iashje ydjr. At‑s racbtamvdstgdmt wd tbamk tf gjkd. At‑s pragjraey ifhusdl fm stuldmt futhfgd gfrd tbjmat as gjrkdt fppfrtumaty. At‑s rdjeey tbd stuldmt futhfgds wd‑rd ifhusdl fm. Xfydjb, A tbamk tbjt tdjhbdrs hfst gfmdy jml tf tbd dxtdmt tbjt wd jll tdjhbdrs, wdwaee amhur sfgd fi tbjt hfst.

…at waee hbjmcd fur hfst struhturd j `at jml wd‑ee bjvd j eatted bjrl hfst fm tbd

struhturd sald.… Sd `deadvd at‑s rdjeey agpfrtjmt tf gjkd surd tbjt wd cavd dvdry diifrt tf

gjkamc surd tbjt stuldmts bjvd racbt tdjhbdr suppfrt jml cdttamc tbd racbtjhjldgah suppfrt, `dhjusd tbjt kddps shbffe fpdm, tbjt kddps `fjrls bjppy jmltbjt‑s wbjt kddps us am `usamdss. Xf tbas as tbd hratahje amvdstgdmt wd bjvd tfgjkd.

K:0 A I a G o Laiia eta a



-8:-

K:0 As Ijhamc Gjofr Laiiahuetads am

Mugdrfus Xtjtds

• \bd Jcfrj Hy`dr Hbjrtdr Xhbffe am ^J jppdjrs tf `d am tbd prfhdss fihuttamc ats tads tf K:0

• Ai tbas bjppdms, tbfucb at wfuel eakdey tjkd pejhd fvdr tagd, at wfuel `d j bucd`efw tf K:0 js Jcfrj jhhfumts ifr ~:8% jml ~04% fi tbd hfgpjmy's tftjerdvdmuds jml D@A\LJ, rdspdhtavdey (lud tf ralahuefus fvdr-iumlamc fi hy`drhbjrtdrs am ^J)

• At jesf pfrtdmls pftdmtaje sagaejr jhtavasg `y ftbdr `fjrls fi K:0-jiiaeajtdlshbffes jrfuml tbd hfumtry

• \bd \dmmdssdd Hfggassafmdr fi Dluhjtafm prdvdmtdl tbd \dmmdssddYartuje Jhjldgy irfg dmrfeeamc jmy mdw stuldmts jitdr Ouey :>tb jml hfuelhefsd tbd shbffe dmtardey

• K:0 as jesf bjvamc sdvdrd laiiahuetads am Hfefrjlf, trjmsejtamc amtf efwdrdmrfeegdmt

M L ` L X a K:0 He a A ‑ X la



-80-

Mf Lfu`t Lud tf Xhrutamy, K:0 Hejags At‑s Xdmlamc

Tmdmcjcdl Xtuldmts @jhk tf \rjlatafmje Xhbffes

• Mjtd Ljvas, K:0‑s Hbjargjm & HDF, Z< hfmidrdmhd hjee, 2/:</:<? Jee fi tbd bdjlwamls A oust gdmtafmdl, jrd jee fm tfp fi fur shbffe `fjrls jml

K:0 atsdei, pusbamc tf kddp `usamdss dmrfeedl fmey ai tbdy'rd truey dmcjcdl jmlrdjly tf edjrm. Sd bdep stuldmts am dvdry wjy wd hjm, `ut ai tbdy jrd mftdmcjcdl, wd fitdm tf sbait `jhk amtf struhturd tbjt trjlatafmje `rahk-jml-gfrtjrshbffe jml tbfsd watblrjwjes burt dmrfeegdmt js wdee.



-88-

Hfgpdtatafm As Amhrdjsamc

• Mjtd Ljvas, K:0‑s Hbjargjm & HDF, Z< hfmidrdmhd hjee, 2/:</:<? @ut A lf sdd j trjmsatafm am dluhjtafm tf gfrd by`ral gflde jml gfrd

trjlatafmje shbffe lastrahts fiidramc fmeamd suggdr hfursds, fmeamd suppedgdmtjeprfcrjgs jml iuee-tagd lastraht rum fmeamd prfcrjgs.

…Am tbd pjst, ai yfu wdrd ijgaey spdjkamc fi vartuje dluhjtafm fptafm ifr yfursfm jml ljucbtdr, tbd fmey hbfahd yfu bjl wjs j iuee-tagd gjmjcdl prfcrjg eakd

tbd fmds K:0 gjmjcds.\fljy tbdrd jrd gfrd puèah shbffes jml lastrahts tbjt fiidr suggdr fmeamd

hfursds, am-sdjsfm dedhtavds fmeamd, suppedgdmtjry skaeedl spdhaiah fmeamdprfcrjgs jml iuee-tagd prfcrjgs rum `y tbd puèah shbffe lastraht atsdei. \bdmug`dr fi fmeamd fptafms as `rfjldr jml wd `deadvd tbjt tbd fvdrjee ldgjml ifrvartuje hbfahd as amhrdjsamc.

Js A gdmtafmdl djreadr, K:0 tbrfucb fur amstatutafmje crfup, IudeDl, aspjrtahapjtamc am tbas gjrkdt sbait jml wd jrd sddamc amhrdjsd am tbd amtdrdst fi fursdrvahds wd fiidr. Bfwdvdr, am tbd sbfrt-tdrg, tbdsd gjrkdt lymjgahs hrdjtd jhbjeedmcd tf dmrfeeamc shbffe stuldmts am tbd puèah shbffes.

Sb J k l J` t I t C tb K:0‑



-8<-

Sbdm Jskdl J`fut Iuturd Crfwtb, K:0‑s

HDF Sjs Mfmhfggattje

• Mjtd Ljvas, K:0‑s Hbjargjm & HDF, Z< hfmidrdmhd hjee, 2/:</:<? …at‑s tff djrey tf prdlaht watb jmy hdrtjamty fur tftje dmrfeegdmts ifr tbd

0>:</0>:4 shbffe ydjr. \bdrd bjvd `ddm j mug`dr fi -- tbdrd bjvd `ddm j idwldvdefpgdmts wbahb jrd hrdjtamc sfgd bdjlwamls jml hbjeedmcds tf dmrfeegdmtcrfwtb…

…wd wjmt tf sbjrd watb yfu tbdsd dvdmts jml hbjeedmcds wd‑rd ijhamc tf bdep

yfu umldrstjml tbd crfwtb trdml, rask tjkamc ifr uphfgamc ydjrs.…Fvdr j guetaped ydjrs, A wfuel sjy, yds, wd dxpdht tbdg tf crfw. \bd

vfeugd fi crfwtb as sfgdtbamc tbjt as vdry laiiahuet ifr us tf prfodht. Js, wd cftbrfucb tbd sdjsfm, wd‑rd edjrmamc gfrd. Sd edjrmdl tbjt am tbd àccdr, feldr,gfrd bacbdr pdmdtrjtdl stjtds, wd‑rd cfamc tf cdt edss crfwtb. Am tbd mdwdrstjtds, wd cdt gfrd crfwtb. \bd fiisdt ifr tbfsd A rdjeey hjm‑t -- A rdjeey hjm‑t tdeeyfu jt tbas pfamt ùt -- lf A dxpdht sfgd pfsatavd crfwtb6 A lf dxpdht at, ùt A oust

hjm‑t sjy bfw guhb6

Sb A‑g Xtaee Xbfrt K:0? \bd Crf tb Xtfr



-84-

Sby A‑g Xtaee Xbfrt K:0? \bd Crfwtb Xtfry

As Fvdr, Qdt tbd Xtfhk Pdgjams Dxpdmsavd

• \bd hfgpjmy as ijhamc gjofr laiiahuetads am mugdrfus stjtds jml hfuelefsd tbd ùek fi j hfmtrjht tbjt prfvalds ~04% fi D@A\LJ

• Fi tbd ifur mdw shbffes fpdmdl tbas ijee, tbrdd jrd vdry sgjee Amsacbtshbffes (:>>-0>> stuldmts djhb)

• Jhjldgah futhfgds hfmtamud tf `d pffr

• Amhrdjsdl shrutamy as ifrhamc K:0 tf `ftb tacbtdm rdhruatamc (burtamcdmrfeegdmt jml rdvdmud crfwtb) jml spdml bdjvaey tf bard gfrd tdjhbdrs,dth. (burtamc gjrcams)

• J ifrgdr dgpefydd, j Mjtafmje Jhhfumt Gjmjcdr mjgdl JmlrdwDbrdmidel, bjs iaedl j ejwsuat hejagamc tbjt bd ―lashfvdrdl jml rdpfrtdltbjt K:0 wjs lavdrtamc jml lardhtamc stuldmts amtdmlamc tf dmrfee am puèah

shbffe lastraht-fpdrjtdl amldpdmldmt stuly prfcrjgs amtf tbd K:0-fpdrjtdl puèah hbjrtdr shbffes. Js j rdsuet, Hjeaifrmaj puèah dluhjtafmamstatutafms efst stjtd dluhjtafm tjx iumlamc `jsdl fm stuldmt JvdrjcdLjaey Jttdmljmhd tf K:0.‗

• Ai trud, tbas hfuel agpjht K:0‑s Amstatutafmje Xjeds ùsamdss

• \bd stfhk rdgjams rahbey vjeudl jt 89x trjaeamc D^X jml 0:x M\G

dstagjtds (tbfucb fmey 9.8x jml <.9x trjaeamc jml M\G D@A\LJ)



Tpljtd fm Eug`dr Eaqualjtfrs (EE)^rdsdmtdl jt tbd Pf`am Bffl Amvdstfrs Hfmidrdmhd fm

Mfvdg`dr 00, 0>:8

(tbd dmtard prdsdmtjtafm as pfstdl jt?www.taesfmiumls.hfg/EE.pli)

^rdsdmtdl fm ::/00/:8



Xuggjry? \bdrd Jrd Gjmy Sjys tf Sam

• \bd vjeujtafm as vdry bacb ‘ ijr j`fvd bastfrahje jml pddr jvdrjcds

• Fpdrjtamc gjrcam as jt jm jee-tagd bacb, rfucbey lfuèd tbd bastfrahjejvdrjcd

• \bd rjal `y idldrje jutbfratads hfuel agpjht tbd hfgpjmy am gjmy wjys?

• EE gacbt bjvd tf hbjmcd gjmy fi ats suppeadrs, wbahb hfuel rjasd prfluht hfstsjml lasrupt ats suppey hbjam

• At hfuel suhk up sacmaiahjmt tagd jml jttdmtafm fi gjmjcdgdmt• Edcje/hfgpeajmhd hfsts gacbt `d ejrcd, `ftb up irfmt jml fmcfamc

• EE gacbt cdt bat watb j àc iamjmhaje pdmjety jml/fr ftbdr jhtafms suhb jshbjrcds jcjamst gjmjcdgdmt

• \bd DAJ rdpfrt gacbt cdt pahkdl up `y tbd gdlaj jml/fr sfhaje mdtwfrkamc,wbahb hfuel agpjht sjeds jml put jllatafmje prdssurd fm tbd hfgpjmy

• EE gjy bjvd j ifrgjeldbyld prfèdg, wbahb hfuel cjam trjhtafm tbjmks tfj hejss jhtafm ejwsuat tbjt wjs oust iaedl

• J gjofr mdw lardht hfgpdtatfr, Ieffr & Ldhfr, bjs dgdrcdl jml as crfwamcrjpaley

• Hustfgdr lassjtasijhtafm jppdjrs tf `d dxtrdgdey bacb, wbahb hfuel agpjht

iuturd crfwtb-83-

Eug`dr Eaqualjtfrs' Xtfhk Bjs @ddm



-82-

Eug`dr Eaqualjtfrs' Xtfhk Bjs @ddm

Hut Am Bjei Xamhd Gy ^rdsdmtjtafm


EE Xamhd Gy ^rdsdmtjtafm

Sby A‑g Xtaee Xbfrt EE? A \bamk \bdrd Jrd Gfrd



-81-

Sby A‑g Xtaee Xbfrt EE? A \bamk \bdrd Jrd Gfrd

Xbfds tf Lrfp, Qdt tbd Xtfhk Pdgjams Dxpdmsavd

• J lasgje Z0 djrmamcs rdpfrt• Xjgd stfrd sjeds ldheamdl 3.:%, crfss gjrcam lfwm >.1%, fpdrjtamc gjrcam

ldheamdl irfg :0.1% tf :>.8%, mdt amhfgd lfwm :1%

• Cualjmhd wjs dvdm wdjkdr?

• HDF Pf`drt Eymhb?

• "Hustfgdr trjiiah tf fur stfrds wjs sacmaiahjmtey wdjkdr tbjm wd dxpdhtdl,

pjrtahuejrey am cdfcrjpbah jrdjs sdvdrdey agpjhtdl `y tbd umusujeey bjrsb wdjtbdr amtbd iarst qujrtdr. \bd agprfvdgdmt am hustfgdr ldgjml wd dxpdradmhdl `dcammamc amgal-Gjrhb lal mft hjrry amtf Gjy, jml Oumd wdjkdmdl iurtbdr. Fur rdluhdlhustfgdr trjiiah bjs hfamhaldl watb hdrtjam wdjk gjhrfdhfmfgah trdmls rdejtdl tfrdsaldmtaje rdgfldeamc, amheulamc dxastamc bfgd sjeds, wbahb bjvd cdmdrjeey `ddmefwdr am 0>:< tbjm tbd hfrrdspfmlamc pdrafls am 0>:8. Sd mfw `deadvd tbdprfefmcdl purhbjsd hyhed jssfhajtdl watb fur hustfgdrs' lashrdtafmjry, ejrcd-tahkdtbfgd agprfvdgdmt prfodhts as eakdey tf `d ldejydl ifr sfgd hustfgdrs amtf tbd ijee

iefframc sdjsfm, jml ifr ftbdrs, amtf spramc fi 0>:4.‗

• ―…j mug`dr fi tbd ijhtfrs wdacbamc fm fur sdhfml qujrtdr rdsuets jrd eakdey tfhfmtamud am tbd sdhfml bjei fi 0>:<…Sbaed wd `deadvd tbd tbarl qujrtdr gjy `dwdjkdr tbjm wd fracamjeey jmtahapjtdl, wd bjvd j strfmc sdmsd fi urcdmhy jml wddxpdht tf rdcjam trjhtafm tf ldeavdr fpdrjtamc gjrcam dxpjmsafm am tbd sdhfml bjeijml am hfgamc ydjrs.‗

• \bd stfhk rdgjams rahbey vjeudl jt 00x trjaeamc jml :1x M\G D^Xdstagjtds jml :0x jml :>x trjaeamc jml M\G D@A\LJ



Gy Hurrdmt Ijvfratd Xbfrt Aldj?

Dxjht Xhadmhds (DRJX)

Mftd? A hrdlat tbas amvdstgdmt aldj jml

sfgd fi tbd jmjeysas bdrdam tf @afs

Pdsdjrhb (suppfrtN`afsrds.hfg)



Dxjht Xhadmhds‑ Xtfhk Bjs Lfu`edl am tbd ^jst Qdjr



-<0-

Dxjht Xhadmhds‑ Xtfhk Bjs Lfu`edl am tbd ^jst Qdjr

‘ Jml Bjs Pasdm Mdjrey 9>x Xamhd Ats 0>>2 Efws


Dxjht Xhadmhds Xamhd Ats A^F

Hfefm Hjmhdr As tbd Xdhfml Edjlamc T X



Hfefm Hjmhdr As tbd Xdhfml-Edjlamc T.X.

Hjmhdr Kaeedr

• ―\bd gfst prdvdmtj`ed, ydt edjst prdvdmtdl hjmhdr.‗ ‘ Ofurmje fi tbdMjtafmje Hjmhdr Amstatutd

-<8-Xfurhd? Dxjht Xhadmhds jmmuje gddtamc prdsdmtjtafm, 3/00/:<.



Djrey Ldtdhtafm As Hratahje

-<<-

* Ftbdr stulads sbfw 3<% jml 9%, rdspdhtavdey.

Xfurhd? Dxjht Xhadmhds jmmuje gddtamc prdsdmtjtafm, 3/00/:<.

*

*



Qdt Hurrdmt Xhrddmamc As ^ffr

• Fmey 94% fi pdfped wbf sbfuel `d shrddmdl jrd, j gjofr rdjsfm wby9>% fi hfefm hjmhdrs ldtdhtdl jrd jerdjly am ejtd stjcd

-<4-Xfurhd? Dxjht Xhadmhds jmmuje gddtamc prdsdmtjtafm, 3/00/:<.



Hurrdmt Xhrddmamc Amvfevds \brdd Xtdps

-<9-

• \bd Hdmtdrs ifr Lasdjsd Hfmtrfe jml ^rdvdmtafm rdhfggdml tbd ifeefwamcshrddmamc tdsts jml amtdrvjes ifr jvdrjcd-rask gdm jml wfgdm jcds 4>-34?

:. Dvdry ydjr? Bacb-sdmsatavaty idhje fhhuet effl tdst (IF@\) [jkj IA\ (IdhjeAggumfhbdgahje \dst)W, wbahb hbdhks ifr balldm èffl am tbrdd hfmsdhutavd stffe sjgpeds;

0. Dvdry iavd ydjrs? Iedxaèd sacgfalfshfpy, wbdrd pbysahajms usd j iedxa ed, eacbtdl tu`d(sacgfalfshfpd) tf effk jt tbd amtdrafr wjees fi tbd rdhtug jml pjrt fi tbd hfefm; jml

8. Dvdry :> ydjrs? Hfefmfshfpy, wbdrd pbysahajms usd j iedxaèd, eacbtdl tu`d (hfefmfshfpd)

tf effk jt tbd amtdrafr wjees fi tbd rdhtug jml tbd dmtard hfefm. Luramc tbas prfhdlurd,sjgpeds fi tassud gjy `d hfeedhtdl ifr hefsdr dxjgamjtafm, fr pfeyps gjy `d rdgfvdl.Hfefmfshfpads hjm `d usdl js shrddmamc tdsts fr js ifeefw-up lajcmfstah tffes wbdm tbdrdsuets fi jmftbdr shrddmamc tdst jrd pfsatavd.

• Hfefmfshfpy jesf as usdl js j lajcmfstah tdst wbdm j pdrsfm bjs sygptfgs, jml at hjm `d usdl jsj ifeefw-up tdst wbdm tbd rdsuets fi jmftbdr hfefrdhtje hjmhdr shrddmamc tdst jrd umhedjr frj`mfrgje.

• \bd gjam prfèdg as tbd hfefmfshfpy• At‑s tagd-hfmsugamc, amvjsavd, mft jvjaejèd dvdrywbdrd, rasks hfgpeahjtafms, dxpdmsavd jml

umhfgifrtjèd ‘ `ftb tbd prdpjrjtafm js wdee js tbd jhtuje prfhdlurd

* ―IA\ (idhje aggumfhbdgahje tdst), sfgdtagds aldmtaiadl js aIF@\ (aggumfhbdgahje idhje fhhuet èffl tdst), as jm agprfvdl IF@\ watb bacbdr sdmsatavaty jmlspdhaiahaty wbdm hfgpjrdl tf cujajh IF@\ (fr cIF@\). Sbdm usdl ydjrey, IA\ bjs jhhurjhy rjtds mdjr tbfsd fi hfefmfshfpy‗ (www.cdttbdiatijhts.hfg ).

Xfurhd? HLH.cfv.

*

Hfgdlajm Ljvd @jrry‑s Ldshraptafm fi



Hfgdlajm Ljvd @jrry s Ldshraptafm fi

^rdpjramc ifr j Hfefmfshfpy

\bdm, fm tbd ljy `difrd gy hfefmfshfpy, A `dcjm gy prdpjrjtafm. Am jhhfrljmhd watb gyamstruhtafms, A lalm't djt jmy sfeal iffl tbjt ljy; jee A bjl wjs hbahkdm `rftb, wbahb as `jsahjeeywjtdr, fmey watb edss iejvfr. \bdm, am tbd dvdmamc, A tffk tbd Gfva^rdp. Qfu gax twf pjhkdts fipfwldr tfcdtbdr am j fmd-eatdr pejstah ouc, tbdm yfu iaee at watb eukdwjrg wjtdr. (Ifr tbfsdumijgaeajr watb tbd gdtrah systdg, j eatdr as j`fut 80 cjeefms.) \bdm yfu bjvd tf lramk tbd wbfed

ouc. \bas tjkds j`fut jm bfur, `dhjusd Gfva^rdp tjstds -- jml bdrd A jg `damc kaml -- eakd jgaxturd fi cfjt spat jml uramje hedjmsdr, watb oust j bamt fi edgfm.

\bd amstruhtafms ifr Gfva^rdp, hedjrey wrattdm `y sfgd`fly watb j crdjt sdmsd fi bugfr, stjtdtbjt jitdr yfu lramk at, ''j effsd wjtdry `fwde gfvdgdmt gjy rdsuet.'' \bas as kaml fi eakd sjyamctbjt jitdr yfu ougp fii yfur rffi, yfu gjy dxpdradmhd hfmtjht watb tbd crfuml.

Gfva^rdp as j muhedjr ejxjtavd. A lfm't wjmt tf `d tff crjpbah, bdrd, `ut? Bjvd yfu dvdr sddm jspjhd sbutted ejumhb6 \bas as prdtty guhb tbd Gfva^rdp dxpdradmhd, watb yfu js tbd sbutted.\bdrd jrd tagds wbdm yfu wasb tbd hfggfld bjl j sdjt `det. Qfu spdml sdvdrje bfurs prdttyguhb hfmiamdl tf tbd `jtbrffg, spurtamc vafedmtey. Qfu deagamjtd dvdrytbamc . Jml tbdm, wbdm yfuiacurd yfu gust `d tftjeey dgpty, yfu bjvd tf lramk jmftbdr eatdr fi Gfva^rdp, jt wbahb pfamt, js

ijr js A hjm tdee, yfur `fwdes trjvde amtf tbd iuturd jml stjrt deagamjtamc iffl tbjt yfu bjvd mftdvdm djtdm ydt.

Jitdr jm jhtafm-pjhkdl dvdmamc, A iamjeey cft tf seddp. \bd mdxt gfrmamc gy waid lrfvd gd tftbd heamah. A wjs vdry mdrvfus. Mft fmey wjs A wfrradl j`fut tbd prfhdlurd, `ut A bjl `ddmdxpdradmhamc fhhjsafmje rdturm `futs fi Gfva^rdp spurtjcd. A wjs tbamkamc, ''Sbjt ai A spurt fm

Jmly6'' Bfw lf yfu jpfefcazd tf j iradml ifr sfgdtbamc eakd tbjt6 Iefwdrs wfuel mft `d dmfucb. ‘ Ljvd @jrry, Gajga Bdrjel, 0/00/>2

-<3-



Lfds \bas Effk Eakd Ium6

-<2-

Hfefcujrl As jm Jetdrmjtavd tf tbd Hurrdmt



Hfefcujrl As jm Jetdrmjtavd tf tbd Hurrdmt

Xhrddmamc \dst, IA\

• \bd Hdmtdrs ifr Lasdjsd Hfmtrfe jml ^rdvdmtafm rdhfggdml tbd ifeefwamcshrddmamc tdsts jml amtdrvjes ifr jvdrjcd-rask gdm jml wfgdm jcds 4>-34?

:. Dvdry ydjr? Bacb-sdmsatavaty idhje fhhuet effl tdst (IF@\) [jkj IA\ (IdhjeAggumfhbdgahje \dst)W, wbahb hbdhks ifr balldm èffl am tbrdd hfmsdhutavd stffe sjgpeds;

0. Dvdry iavd ydjrs? Iedxaèd sacgfalfshfpy, wbdrd pbysahajms usd j iedxa ed, eacbtdl tu`d(sacgfalfshfpd) tf effk jt tbd amtdrafr wjees fi tbd rdhtug jml pjrt fi tbd hfefm; jml

8. Dvdry :> ydjrs? Hfefmfshfpy, wbdrd pbysahajms usd j iedxaèd, eacbtdl tu`d (hfefmfshfpd)

tf effk jt tbd amtdrafr wjees fi tbd rdhtug jml tbd dmtard hfefm. Luramc tbas prfhdlurd,sjgpeds fi tassud gjy `d hfeedhtdl ifr hefsdr dxjgamjtafm, fr pfeyps gjy `d rdgfvdl.Hfefmfshfpads hjm `d usdl js shrddmamc tdsts fr js ifeefw-up lajcmfstah tffes wbdm tbdrdsuets fi jmftbdr shrddmamc tdst jrd pfsatavd.

• Hfefmfshfpy jesf as usdl js j lajcmfstah tdst wbdm j pdrsfm bjs sygptfgs, jml at hjm `d usdl jsj ifeefw-up tdst wbdm tbd rdsuets fi jmftbdr hfefrdhtje hjmhdr shrddmamc tdst jrd umhedjr frj`mfrgje.

-<1-

* ―IA\ (idhje aggumfhbdgahje tdst), sfgdtagds aldmtaiadl js aIF@\ (aggumfhbdgahje idhje fhhuet èffl tdst), as jm agprfvdl IF@\ watb bacbdr sdmsatavaty jmlspdhaiahaty wbdm hfgpjrdl tf cujajh IF@\ (fr cIF@\). Sbdm usdl ydjrey, IA\ bjs jhhurjhy rjtds mdjr tbfsd fi hfefmfshfpy‗ (www.cdttbdiatijhts.hfg ).

Xfurhd? HLH.cfv.

*



Hfefcujrl vs. tbd Hurrdmt Xhrddmamc \dst

• Am j ~:>,>>> pjtadmt stuly pu`easbdl am tbd Mdw Dmcejml Ofurmje fiGdlahamd, Hfefcujrl wjs sacmaiahjmtey gfrd eakdey tf ldtdht hfefrdhtjehjmhdr jml prdhjmhdrfus pfeyps vs. tbd hurrdmt `effl-`jsdl tdst, IA\?

-4>-Xfurhd? Dxjht Xhadmhds jmmuje gddtamc prdsdmtjtafm, 3/00/:<.

\bd Xtuly Asm‑t Js Hfmheusavd Js At Jppdjrs



\bd Xtuly Asm t Js Hfmheusavd Js At Jppdjrs

‘ J @fcus Hfgpjrasfm

• \bd hfgpjrasfm IA\ usdl am tbd Lddp-H (Hfefcujrl) stuly wjs jmamidrafr ^feygdlhf IA\ tdst, wbahb usds j samced stffe sjgped (typahjeeyfmey usdl `y pbysahajms wbdm tbdy wjmt aggdlajtd rdsuets, suhb js amtbd DP fr am tbdar fiiahd jitdr j prfstjtd dxjg)

• J gfrd ijar, rdje-wfrel stuly wfuel bjvd usdl j edjlamc IA\ tdst suhbjs AmXurd, wbahb as lfmd am tbd bfgd (js as Hfefcujrl), wbahb usds twf

stffe sjgpeds jml bjs jm 23% ldtdhtafm rjtd• \bd HLH rdhfggdmls j IA\ tdst watb ―tbrdd hfmsdhutavd stffe

sjgpeds,‗ lfmd jmmujeey; am hfmtrjst, Hfefcujrl usds j samced sjgpedjml waee eakdey `d cavdm fmey fmhd dvdry tbrdd ydjrs (tbd tdstamc amtdrvjebjsm‑t `ddm ldtdrgamdl ydt)

• J stuly fi Hfefcujrl fmhd dvdry tbrdd ydjrs vs. j twf- fr tbrdd-stffe-sjgped IA\ tdst fmhd j ydjr ifr tbrdd ydjrs bjsm‑t `ddm lfmd, sf at‑s mfthedjr wbdtbdr, am j rdje-wfrel sdttamc, Hfefcujrl as supdrafr tf IA\

-4:-

\bd Xtuly Asm‑t Js Hfmheusavd Js At Jppdjrs



\bd Xtuly Asm t Js Hfmheusavd Js At Jppdjrs

‘ J Ijesd ^fsatavd ^rf`edg

• Tmgdmtafmdl am Dxjht Xhadmhds‑ amvdstfr prdsdmtjtafm as tbd ijht tbjtHfefcujrl bjs j ijesd pfsatavd rjtd fi :8.<%, iavd tf tdm tagds tbjt fi tbdAmXurd IA\ tdst (~0%) jml mdjrey tbrdd tagds tbd 4% rjtd fi tbd amidrafr^feygdlhf tdst usdl am tbd Ldd^-H stuly

• A tbamk tbas waee prfvd tf `d j ldje kaeedr ifr gfst lfhtfrs `dhjusd atgdjms tbjt ifr dvdry 3-2 pjtadmts ifr wbfg tbdy prdshra`d tbd

Hfefcujrl tdst, tbd rdsuets hfgd `jhk watb j ijesd pfsatavd• \bas gdjms tbd lfhtfr bjs tf hjee tbd pjtadmt jml sjy, ―A bjvd sfgd `jl

mdws? tbd tdst yfu oust tffk amlahjtds tbjt yfu bjvd hfefrdhtje hjmhdr,tbd sdhfml-ldjleadst ifrg fi hjmhdr. @ut at gacbt `d j ijesd pfsatavd, sfedt‑s shbdlued j hfefmfshfpy tf `d surd‗

• \bd pjtadmt, fi hfursd, fmey bdjrs tbd iarst sdmtdmhd jml pjmahs, tbamkamc―A BJYD HJMHDP JML A‑G CFAMC \F LAD!!!‗ jml bjs tf dmlurd trudjcfmy jml tdrrfr umtae tbdy hjm cdt j hfefmfshfpy jml edjrm tbjt,―Fffps, tbd tdst wjs wrfmc jml yfu‑rd iamd‗

-40-

\bdrd Jrd Gjmy Pdjsfms Sby A \bamk



\bdrd Jrd Gjmy Pdjsfms Sby A \bamk

Hfefcujrl Saee @d j @ust

• ^dr tbd prdvafus seald, at‑s mft hedjr tbjt, am rdje-wfrel prjhtahd, Hfefcujrlas jmy `dttdr am ldtdhtamc hfefrdhtje hjmhdr ‘ jml as hdrtjamey wfrsd amtdrgs fi ijesd pfsatavds ‘ tbjm tbd IA\ tdst

• IA\ bjs `ddm jrfuml ifr ldhjlds jml as waldey kmfwm, trustdl, jvjaejèd,amdxpdmsavd jml hfvdrdl `y jee amsurdrs

• \bd jvdrjcd hfst fi IA\ `difrd amsurjmhd as ~$00 vs. :4-03x bacbdr ifrHfefcujrl (rdagùrsdgdmt bjs ydt tf `d ldtdrgamdl, ùt dstagjtds jrd~$804-$834; tbd east prahd as $411)

• Hfefcujrl as guhb ―gdssadr‗

• Gjofr hfgpdtatafm as effgamc

• Pdagùrsdgdmt gjy `d defw tbd hfgpjmy‑s cualjmhd

• Hfggdrhaje pjyfrs gjy `d sefw tf jpprfvd Hfefcujrl

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H e l‑ ―A k‗ I t



Hfefcujrl‑s ―Ahk‗ Ijhtfr

• Hfefcujrl rdquards sacmaiahjmtey gfrd idhje bjmleamc tbjm IA\, wbahbhfuel edjl tf sacmaiahjmt rdsastjmhd `y pjtadmts

-4<-

• IA\ rdquards mftbamc gfrd tbjm jquahk pfkd fi tbd stffe?

• Am hfmtrjst, Hfefcujrl rdquardspjtadmts tf iaee jm dmtard hup watbidhds, j sgdeey, gdssy, laiiahuet

jml lascustamc prfhdss?• Lf yfu rdjeey tbamk Jgdrahjms

(jml tbdar lfhtfrs) waee dg`rjhdtbas ―pffp-am-j-hup‗ gflde666

• \wf djreadr vdrsafms fi tbd Hfefcujrl tdst wdrd `usts

• ^djk qujrtdrey rdvdmuds fi 5$04>,>>> jml ~3>> tdsts j ldhjld jcf

H tata A E a



-44-

Hfgpdtatafm As Effgamc

• Jm frje lajcmfstah (j hjgdrj-am-j-paee hjeedl âeeHjg Hfefm, gjld `y Cavdm

Agjcamc, wbahb wjs jhquardl `y Hfvaladm djreadr tbas ydjr) wjs jpprfvdl tbd ILJam Id`rujry (jml wjs jerdjly jvjaejèd am gfrd tbjm 2> hfumtrads)

• J èffl-`jsdl lajcmfstah (Dpa prfHfefm Jssjy) as jpprfvdl Durfpd jml am tbdjpprfvje prfhdss am tbd T.X.

• Heamahje Cdmfgahs fi Justrjeaj bjs jesf ldvdefpdl j èffl-`jsdl tdst ifhusdl fmtwf àfgjrkdrs fi mfm-Xdrdptam1 gdtbyejtdl cdmd prfluhts

• Ftbdr èffl-`jsdl lajcmfstahs watb gjtdrajeey `dttdr sdmsatavaty ifr prd-hjmhdrfuspfeyps jrd umldr ldvdefpgdmt, sf Hfefcujrl‑s ljy am tbd sum waee eakdey `d eagatdl(j hratahjeey agpfrtjmt ijhtfr cavdm tbjt DRJX‑s vjeujtafm as dmtardey ldpdmldmt fmHfefcujrl‑s jmtahapjtdl suhhdss gjmy ydjrs amtf tbd iuturd)

• J rdhdmtey puèasbdl jrtahed (www.mhà.meg.mab.cfv/pu`gdl/083><032) bacbeacbts djreyldvdefpgdmt fi j gahrfPMJ àfgjrkdr lajcmfstah tdst usamc j sagped èffl lrjw tbjt bjsjm 2:% sdmsatavaty am prd-hjmhdrfus hfefm hjmhdr ldtdhtafm (vs. <:% ifr Hfefcujrl) jml

10% sdmsatavaty am ldtdhtafm fi hfefrdhtje hjmhdr (sjgd js Hfefcujrl)• \bas tdst usds j samced gaPMJ gjrkdr; tbd rdsdjrhb crfup as effkamc jt j mug`dr fi ftbdr

gahrfLMJ gjrkdrs tf iurtbdr dmbjmhd tbd sdmsatavaty jml at as bacbey prf`jèd tbjt ftbdrgjrkdrs waee jesf `d ifuml tf `d diidhtavd

• \bas rdsdjrhb as cjrmdramc sacmaiahjmt jttdmtafm watbam tbd shadmtaiah hfggumaty, ùt ashurrdmtey umkmfwm `y tbd iamjmhaje hfggumaty

Jee fi tbdsd jetdrmjtavds umldrgamd tbd efmc-tdrg pftdmtaje fi Hfefcujrljml umldrshfrd tbd dxjccdrjtdl vjeujtafm fi DRJX

Dxjht Xhadmhds Bjs Jskdl ifr j Ydry Bacb



-49-

y c

Pdagùrsdgdmt Pjtd ifr Hfefcujrl

• \bas as wbjt Dxjht Xhadmhds as jskamc ifr (―prfpfsdl Hfefcujrlrdagùrsdgdmt hrfsswjek‗)?

Xfurhd? Dxjht Xhadmhds jmmuje gddtamc prdsdmtjtafm, 3/00/:<.

\bdrd Gjy @d j Mdcjtavd Xurprasd Sbdm HGXD t èa b At P a ` t P t i H e l



-43-

Dstjèasbds Ats Pdagùrsdgdmt Pjtd ifr Hfefcujrl

(Dxpdhtdl Jmy Ljy Mfw)

• J rdpfrt `y Crjvaty Pdsdjrhb qudstafms wbdtbdr tbd Hdmtdrs ifr Gdlahjrd jml

Gdlahjal Xdrvahds (HGX) waee dstjèasb j rdagùrsdgdmt rjtd jmywbdrd hefsd tfwbjt tbd hfgpjmy jml ats amvdstfrs dxpdht?

• ―@jsdl fm dxtdmsavd laeacdmhd jml hfmsuetjtafms watb amlustry dxpdrts (amheulamc j ifrgdrsdmafr HGX dgpefydd), wd jrd hfmialdmt tbjt HGX jml ats Gdlahjrd JlgamastrjtavdHfmtrjhtfrs (―GJHs‗) waee dstjèasb j rdagùrsdgdmt rjtd ifr Hfefcujrl tbjt as jt edjst 3>-2>% efwdr tbjm tbd ~$4>> rjtd DRJX bjs prfodhtdl tf amvdstfrs lud tf HGX usamc j cjp-iaee prfhdss tf prahd tbd tdst rjtbdr tbjm tbd hrfsswjek jmjeysas DRJX bjs rdpdjtdley

hejagdl waee `d usdl. Sd jesf tbamk tbdrd as j gdjmamciue prf`jàeaty tbjt HGX gjy sagpeyldhald tf assud j mdcjtavd Mjtafmje Hfvdrjcd Ldtdrgamjtafm jml rdiusd tf hfvdrHfefcujrl, js HGX lal am 0>>1 watb tbd H\ hfefmfcrjpby (―H\H‗) wbdm at `dhjgd hedjrtbjt wbaed H\ hfefmfcrjpbads wdrd hjpjèd fi lajcmfsamc hjmhdr jml jeefwamc pbysahajmstf ldtdht pfeyps, tbdy wdrd ijr irfg `damc hfst-diidhtavd jt tbd rdagùrsdgdmt prahdsrdquardl tf gjkd tbd tdst dhfmfgahje ifr prjhtatafmdrs.‗

• ―\bd LMJ tdsts hfmtjamdl watbam Hfefcujrl, wbahb jhhfumt ifr fvdr 14% fi tbd vjeud am

DRJX‑ bypftbdtahje hrfsswjek jmjeysas, wdrd dxpeahatey `jmmdl `y tbd Ldpjrtgdmt fiBdjetb jml Bugjm Xdrvahds (―BBX‗, pjrdmt ùrdju fi HGX) am 0>:0 irfg `damcrdagùrsdl js lajcmfstah tdsts (js tbdy wfuel `d usdl am Hfefcujrl).‗

• ―At as hedjr irfg puèasbdl HGX ljtj…tbjt dvdm j $:4>/tdst rdagùrsdgdmt rjtd ifrHfefcujrl as j gjofr strdthb. Sd jesf iaml at vdry tdeeamc tbjt DRJX bjs `ddm umjèd tfiaml jmy pjrtmdrs ifr Hfefcujrl jml bjs mft puèasbdl ats fwm hfst-diidhtavdmdss stuly ifrHfefcujrl ldspatd purpfrtdley ―wfrkamc‗ fm fmd samhd 0>::.‗

Xfurhd? Crjvaty Pdsdjrhb rdpfrt, </8>/:<.

Hfggdrhaje ^jyfr Jlfptafm Gjy @d Xefwdr



-42-

y p y

\bjm Jmtahapjtdl

• Jdtmj rdhdmtey jmmfumhdl tbjt at lfds mft hfvdr Hfefcujrl jml vadws tbd

tdst js dxpdragdmtje jml amvdstacjtafmje• ―Hfgpjrjtavd-diidhtavdmdss stulads jrd mfw mddldl tf hejraiy tbd rfed fi stffe

LMJ tdstamc watb rdspdht tf prfcrjggjtah shrddmamc watb ftbdr tdst fptafms.Fmey tbrfucb j `dttdr umldrstjmlamc fi ftbdr kdy ijhtfrs, suhb js tbd shrddmamcamtdrvje, jlbdrdmhd, hfst, jml lajcmfstah dvjeujtafm fi pfsatavd rdsuets, hjm wdldtdrgamd tbd jpprfprajtd pejhd ifr stffe LMJ tdstamc fm tbd shrddmamc gdmu.‗

• Gjxag Crfup rdpfrt (2/00/:<)?• Hfggdrhaje pjyfrs jrd eakdey tf usd j gfrd gjrkdt-`jsdl jpprfjhb tf

rdagùrsdgdmt. \bd cfvdrmgdmt rdhdmtey gjld stdps tfwjrl jlfptamc j gfrdgjrkdt-`jsdl jpprfjhb tf rdagùrsdgdmt. Sbaed tbfsd hbjmcds lf mft tjkddiidht umtae 0>:3, wd jmtahapjtd tbjt hfggdrhaje pjyfrs waee sdedhtavdey `d gfrdprfjhtavd am rdagùrsamc mdw tdsts jt wbjt tbdy vadw js gjrkdt rjtds jml mft

`jsdl fm tbd gdtbflfefcads hurrdmtey usdl `y HGX. \bd Hfefcujrl as amhfgpdtatafm watb $0>-$8> IA\ tdsts, js wdee js dgdrcamc èffl-`jsdl tdsts,wbahb hrdjtds j hbjeedmcamc gjrkdt dmvarfmgdmt, am fur vadw.

• Gfrd tbjm 9>% fi HPH pjtadmts jrd fvdr 94 ydjrs fel sf hfggdrhajepjyfrs bjvd bastfrahjeey jvfaldl rdagùrsdgdmt fi shrddmamc tdsts `dhjusdj pjyfr's gdg`drs tfljy gjy mft `d tbdar gdg`drs wbdm tbd `dmdiats jrd

rdjeazdl

Dxjht Xhadmhds Bjs Mdvdr Cdmdrjtdl Gdjmamciue



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0>>: 0>>0 0>>8 0>>< 0>>4 0>>9 0>>3 0>>2 0>>1 0>:> 0>:: 0>:0 0>:8 \\GB: ':<

\ftje Pdvdmud

Mdt Amhfgd

-41-

c

Pdvdmuds jml Ats Efssds Jrd Jhhdedrjtamc

Xfurhd? HjpatjeAZ.

• Am Z0 ‒:<, rdvdmuds wdrd zdrf jml mdt efss wjs $:1.< gaeeafm

(G)

Dxjht Xhadmhds‑ Zujrtdrey Hjsb @urm As Pasamc ‘



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Jml Saee Amtdmsaiy js tbd Xjeds Ifrhd As Bardl

IHI as fpdrjtamc hjsb iefw gamus hjp dx

Xfurhd? HjpatjeAZ.

Irdd Hjsb Iefw

(G)

• Hjsb `urm hfuel jpprfjhb $:>> gaeeafm am 0>:4

\f Iuml Ats Efssds, Dxjht Xhadmhds Bjs Assudl Gfrd



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• \bd sbjrd hfumt bjs gfrd tbjm trapedl am tbd pjst sax ydjrs

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jml Gfrd Xbjrds, Laeutamc Xbjrdbfeldrs

Xfurhd? HjpatjeAZ.

Laeutdl Xbjrds Futstjmlamc

(G)

Xdqudmfg, Jmftbdr Gfedhuejr Lajcmfstahs Hfgpjmy,Bjs Gdjmamciue Pdvdmuds jml Xgjeedr Efssds



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0>>: 0>>0 0>>8 0>>< 0>>4 0>>9 0>>3 0>>2 0>>1 0>:> 0>:: 0>:0 0>:8 \\GZ0 :<

\ftje Pdvdmud

Djrmamcs irfg Hfmt.Fps.

-90-

Bjs Gdjmamciue Pdvdmuds jml Xgjeedr Efssds

Pdhdmtey ‘ Qdt Fmey j $<04 Gaeeafm Gjrkdt Hjp

Xfurhd? HjpatjeAZ.

(G)

Pdvdmud

Mdt Amhfgd

Dxjht Xhadmhds‑ Xtfhk As Saeley Fvdrvjeudl



-98-

Dxjht Xhadmhds‑ Xtfhk As Saeley Fvdrvjeudl

• Xtfhk prahd (2/2/:< hefsd)? $00.:<• Gjrkdt hjp? $:.20 àeeafm

• Hjsb? $084 gaeeafm

• Ld`t? $: gaeeafm

• Dmtdrprasd vjeud? $:.42 àeeafm

• \\G D^X? -$>.2>• 0>:< dst. D^X? -$:.:<

• 0>:4 dst. D^X? -$:.>9

• 0>:4 dst. rdvdmud? $<3-$:>> gaeeafm

• 0>:3 dst. rdvdmud? $03>-$899 gaeeafm

Dvdm ai tbd hfgpjmy jhbadvds $899 gaeeafm am rdvdmuds am 0>:3 (wbahb asdxtrdgdey umeakdey), jmjeysts jrd vjeuamc DRJX tfljy jt iavd tagds tbasjgfumt! (A jg mft gjkamc tbas up)

Bfw A \bamk At Saee êjy Fut



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Bfw A \bamk At Saee êjy Fut

• Sd‑vd sddm tbas stfry `difrd? Hfefcujrl as Dxjht Xhadmhds‑ tbarl jttdgptjt j stffe LMJ-`jsdl lajcmfstah ‘ jml tbd iarst twf (^rdCdm êus jmlHfefXurd) wdrd tftje ùsts, mdvdr f`tjamamc fvdr $04>,>>>/qujrtdr amsjeds (tbd `dst qujrtdrey sjeds, am Z< 0>><, wdrd j gdrd ~3>> lajcmfstahtdsts)

‘ \bd djreadr tdsts wdrd ej`frjtfry-ldvdefpdl tdsts jml tbus lalm't cf tbrfucb

tbd ^rdgjrkdt Jpprfvje/ILJ jpprfvje prfhdss tbjt Hfefcujrl lal, ùt tbddjreadr tdsts wdrd kmfwm jml sagpey mft usdl

• Fmd jmjeyst (Odiirads) as prfodhtamc 0:4,>>> tdsts am 0>:4, 4>>,>>> tdsts am0>:9 jml 2>>,>>> tdsts am 0>:3

‘ A‑l `d sbfhkdl ai tbd hfgpjmy jhbadvds dvdm :>% fi tbas jgfumt

• @y djrey 0>:4, at sbfuel `d hedjr tbjt Hfefcujrl as j hfggdrhaje iefp jml

tbd stfhk waee hfeejpsd

A \bamk \bas Saee Gddt tbd Xjgd Ijtd js tbd



-94-

Jgjzfm Iard ^bfmd

• J bucdey bypdl prfluht dmtdramc j hrfwldl gjrkdt watb bacbdxpdhtjtafms ‘ jml as j tftje `ust

• \bas wjs tbd edjl stfry am tbd usamdss sdhtafm fi tfljy‑s MQ \agds?

Gy (Cdmdrfus) ^rahd \jrcdt As $2



-99-

Gy (Cdmdrfus) ^rahd \jrcdt As $2

• Am ats rdpfrt jssacmamc DRJX j ―Xdee‗ rjtamc, Gjxag Crfup wratds?Yjeujtafm as dxpdmsavd. Xbjrds fi DRJX trjld jt DY/rdvdmud guetapeds fi9.2x jml 4.8x fur 0>:3 jml 0>:2 rdvdmud futeffks, rdspdhtavdey, hfgpjrdl tfpddr 0>:< jml 0>:4 jvdrjcds fi <9x jml <.:x. Fur :0-gfmtb tjrcdt prahd fi$2 as `jsdl fm DRJX trjlamc jt j DY/rdvdmud guetaped fi 8.4x fur 0>:2rdvdmud futeffk jml lashfumtdl `jhk tf 0>:4. Sd `deadvd tbjt, am 0>:2, tbdhfgpjmy sbfuel trjld jt j lashfumt tf tbd pddr jvdrjcd, cavdm fur vadw tbjt

`effl-`jsdl shrddmamc tdsts jrd j sacmaiahjmt hfgpdtatavd tbrdjt.

• A tbamk tbas as cdmdrfus? gy `dst cudss as tbjt, js Hfefcujrl ijaes am tbdgjrkdtpejhd, tbd stfhk ijees 4>% am tbd mdxt sax gfmtbs (hfuel bjppdmjmy ljy ai HGX rdag`ursdgdmt edvdes lasjppfamt), 2>% am tbd mdxtydjr, jml 1>% am tbd mdxt twf ydjrs





• \bd vjeujtafm as dxtrdgd ‘ j mdjrey $0 `aeeafm gjrkdt hjp ifr j samcedlajcmfstah prfluht hfgpjmy

• ^jtadmts rdodht Hfefcujrl‑s ―pffp-am-j-hup‗ systdg

• ^bysahajms rdsast swathbamc jwjy irfg j IA\ tdst tbdy kmfw jml trust

• Pdag`ursdgdmt edvdes jrd efwdr tbjm tbd hfgpjmy jml amvdstfrs dxpdht

• Hfgpdtatafm dgdrcds

whitney tilson: lessons from a dozen years of short selling

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