where shall we have lunch? problems for a computer-aided future

CONTEXT / BACKGROUND THE PROBLEM THE BIG QUESTIONS

Where shall we have lunch?Problems for a computer-aided future

Vivek NallurTrinity College Dublin

July 20, 2015


THE BIG QUESTIONS

The History of every major Galactic Civilization tends to passthrough three distinct and recognizable phases, those ofSurvival, Inquiry and Sophistication, otherwise known as theHow, Why, and Where phases. For instance, the first phase ischaracterized by the question ’How can we eat?’ the second bythe question ’Why do we eat?’ and the third by the question’Where shall we have lunch?’

— Douglas Adams, The Restaurant at the End of the Universe


FRAMING THE QUESTION


WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO BE A ‘SMART CITY’?


SMART MOBILITY

Figure: source - Amsterdam Smart City[www.amsterdamsmartcity.com]


SMART HOMES

Figure: source - The Guardian


SMART GRID


SO, WHAT’S THE PROBLEM?

Figure: Visualization of movement on the LondonUnderground


EACH HOME IS A COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM

Figure: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Complex-adaptive-system.jpg

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Complex-adaptive-system.jpg

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Complex-adaptive-system.jpg


IF DUBLIN WERE A SMART CITY

I Number of smart homes — 400,000 (approx)I Number of smart buses — 950 (approx)I Number of ‘ansibles’ — 1 million (approx)I Number of Luas riders per day — 83,500 (approx)I Number of Bus riders per day — 300, 000 (approx)

How many feedback loops does this system have?


LET’S HAVE LUNCH!

My ansible can talk to your ansible

I Coordinate schedulesI Contact city transport network for options, pre-and-post

lunchI Find restaurants amenable to both palettes and budgetsI Make reservationsI Reserve place on city transport vehicles

What could possibly go wrong?


STRIKE! STRIKE! STRIKE!

I Talks breakdown between management and unionI Union announces demonstrations, sit-ins, protests

Self-Adaptation By Smart Transport Network

I Re-route buses, tramsI Change schedules to accommodate rushI Cancel reservations on public transport network, lying on

strike route


Self-Adaptation By Smart Grid

I Observe spike in power demand from tram-networkI Re-route power from residences to tram-networkI Start-up generators to cope with future demand in

residences

Self-Adaptation By Smart Home

I Change schedules of automated washing machines,dishwashers

I All non-essential appliances switched off

Self-Adaptation By Ansibles

I Start charging EVs for un-missable appointmentsI Cancel appointments that cannot be metI Change schedules


WHAT’S WRONG WITH ALL OF THAT?

What happened to my lunch appointment?

I The ansible has no ideaI The smart-home has no ideaI The smart-grid has no idea

Series of cascading events

I Disruption in schedules cause changes to traffic patternsI Changed traffic patterns cause more power to be drawn by

transport networksI Sudden power demand causes brownouts in residential

neighbourhoods


AND YOU’RE JUST ONE IN A MILLION CITIZENS


WAS THERE AN ACTUAL STRIKE?

Can you trust an autonomous complex adaptive system?

I Which agent is responsible for failure?I Can the system explain itself?I What about emergent phenomena?

Reasoning about failure

I When no single system has failedI And no-one has the ‘big picture’


ALREADY COMPLEX SYSTEMS ARE NERVE-WRACKING

In Stock-Exchanges

I Flash crashes caused by high-frequency trading algorithmsI 60 - 70% of price movements caused by self-generated

activityI Oct, 2014 saw 179 mini-flash-crashes

Air-Traffic ControlI December, 2014 – ATC shutdown airspace over London


INTER-CONNECTED COMPLEX SYSTEMS

Need Self-Explaining Mechanisms

I To account for humans in the loopI To account to humans in the loop

Will almost certainly experience Emergence


QUESTIONS THAT WE DESPERATELY NEED ANSWERS

TO

What happens when one complex adaptive system meetsanother?Smart Homes meets Smart Mobility meets Smart Grid

How do we account for irrational human behaviour?I only eat vegetarian on Wednesdays, unless Loretta’s has saltimboccaalla Romana as the lunch special

How far can we trust a socio-technical complex adaptivesystem?

If my ansible says not to take the Waterloo line, then there must be afault


MORE TECHNICAL QUESTIONS ...

How do we construct a socio-technical complex adaptivesystem?

What kind of design philosophies exist for such systems?

If emergence is a given, what are the implications forproof?


THAT’S ALL, FOLKS!

Questions? Comments?

where shall we have lunch? problems for a computer-aided future

Technology

context background

big questions smart

big questions strike

big questions smart

big questions selfadaptation

big questions whats

smart transport network

approx number of smart