where next for polling? charlie cadywould presentation
TRANSCRIPT
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Polling in Context: The role of polling in policy research
Charlie Cadywould@CCadywould
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• Why we do polling• How we’ve used polling in our research• The limits of polling• Why we do qual too• Social media analysis• How polling fits in
Structure
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Why do we do polling?
• Think tankers don’t just spend all day thinking• Arguing from first principles isn’t enough
• Good policies depend on how the public will react to them• The art of the possible – what is electorally viable/publicly acceptable?
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How do we use polling?
• Commission on Apprenticeships (2015)• Poll of 1,000 parents of 15-16 year olds• 92% of parents think apprenticeships are a good option for young
people• 32% think an apprenticeship is the best option for their child• Implications for policy: esteem of the apprenticeship route needs to be
improved
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How do we use polling?
• Generation Strains (2013)• Inquiry into attitudes on welfare• Finds large amounts of inter-generational solidarity• Declining trust in the welfare state
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How do we use polling?• Tune In, Turn Out (2014)
• Poll of 1,000 18-24 year olds• Focus groups• Key issues - polling• Understanding nuances of disillusionment – focus groups
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Pros of polling
• Representative• Demographic• Large samples• Avoids self-selection bias (somewhat)
• Cross-breaks• Data viz• (Headlines)
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The limits of polling
• Causation• Survey question selection• Hard-to-reach groups• Research question selection
• Do we ignore problems we cant quantify?• Limited ability to follow up
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Why we do qual too
• Hard-to-reach groups• Open questions, in-depth responses• Immediate follow-up – sniff out the story• Context
• Tone• Body language
• Discussion and deliberation reveals nuances• People can change their minds – reveals the arguments that resonate
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Social media analysis
• Centre for the Analysis of Social Media• Collaboration between Demos and the University of Sussex
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Not strictly relevant
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Twitter analysis: 1st election debate
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Social media analysis: Pros
• Observed behaviour• Huge samples• Hard-to-reach groups• Certain demographic info• Real-time reaction to events• Useful beyond research
• Intelligence• Consultation tool
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Social media analysis: Cons
• Ethical questions• Privacy?
• Unrepresentative• Online disinhibition effect• Facebook vs Twitter
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Demographic profile of Twitter users
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Social media analysis: How does it differ to polling?
• Generic views vs event specific statements• Solicited statements vs public statements• Passive vs active statements (helping an interviewer with
research vs trying to effect change)• Online vs offline culture – different norms
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Conclusion: how polling fits into our work
• A snapshot of public opinion as it is• Broad overview of society, with breakdowns• Publicity• Use qualitative research for:
• More depth• Understanding why• Sniffing out the story• How people can change their minds