Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

1

Framingthe Future

of Work▪ Futurist

▪ Strategy advisor

▪ Author

@rossdawson

Humans and machines

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

2

Future

Leadership

Disruption

Uncertainties

Organisations

Humanity

Education

Future

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

3

The value of predictions

Structured thinking about the future

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

4

Image: parkeyparker

Trends and driving forces

Image: Daniel Dionne

Critical uncertainties

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

5

Responses to trends

Image: Aaron Parecki

How far? How fast?

Source: OurWorldinData, UN, HYDE

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

6

Scenarios to incorporate uncertainty

ResourceAffluence

ResourcePoverty

Cohesion

Fragmentation

New horizons

Agenteconomy

Humanitymaturing

Shocktreatment

RESOURCES

AVAILABILITY

CO

HE

SIO

N

How could this happen?

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

7

Disruption

Continuous job destruction and creation

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

8

Work can be done anywhere

Brain Internet

Applications

Organisations Industries

Proteins Actors

Society

PoliticsContagion

Networks everywhere

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

9

“Ranked by market value, 60 of the

world’s 100 largest corporations

earn at least half of their revenue

from platform markets”

- Prof. Thomas Eisenmann, Harvard Business School

enablevalue-creating interactions

betweenexternal

producers and consumers,based on an

open infrastructureand

governance structures

Adapted from: Platform Revolution, Parker, van Alstyne and Choudhary

Platforms

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

10

Source: Electronic Frontier Foundation

Exceeding human performance

Automating manual tasks

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

11

Emotionally engaging service

Rising expectations

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

12

Wealth Haves Have nots

Values Globalism Nationalism

Power Individuals Institutions

Openness Expansion Constraint

Wellness Potential Availability

Technology Embrace Disengage

Humanity Original Transhuman

Work Elites Insecurity

Social polarisation

Image: Marcu Ioachim

Uncertainties

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

13

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

14

The rise of work platforms

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

15

Regulatory response

Consumer comfort with AI interfaces

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

16

Source: OECD

Increasing divergence in performance

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

17

Changing work structures

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

18

Capital trumps labour

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

U.S. Corporate Profits and Labor Income

Corporate profits

Wages

Shift to fluid, flexible work

Source: Upwork, Edelman

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

19

The retirement of retirement

Source: Brookings Institute, United Nations

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

20

Massive technological unemployment?

New forms of income redistribution

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

21

Humanity

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

22

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

23

Organisations

Bounded Unbounded

Network capabilities drive performance

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

24

Complements not substitutes

Shifting to the human/ AI enterprise

Source: StitchFix

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

25

Collaboration and trust

Fluid roles and work

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

26

Source: The Lean Startup, Eric Ries

A culture of experimentation

Focus on human potential

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

27

Education

Image: John Walker

Education pays

Source: Acemoglu and Autor

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

28

Where will I learn the most?

Learning embedded in work

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

29

Peer learning

Leadership

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

30

The only way

you can control your destiny

is to be more flexible

than your environment

- The Law of Requisite Variety

Vision What world do we want to create? What might be possible?

Foundations What institutions, business models, platforms and systems will enable this vision? What is missing now?

Roadblocks What is blocking the potential? How can we take away or bypass these blocks?

Paths What possible paths forward could allow us to reach our vision? What is most feasible? What are milestones?

Collaboration What collaboration is needed between who? How can we foster and enable that collaboration?

Action What action today can be taken by the industry? What action can you take to enable the industry’s potential?

A framework for industry leadership

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

31

Choosing our path forward

Future

Leadership

Disruption

Uncertainties

Organisations

Humanity

Education

Association of Asia-Pacific Business Schools Annual Meeting 2018

Ross Dawson: Framing the Future of Work

© 2018 Ross Dawson

www.rossdawson.com

32

Work at the heart of our human future