where does battery technology stand? · philippines, japan), including saipan. major power failures...
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DNV GL © 2016
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16 March 2016 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL © 2016
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Ben Gully
Where does battery technology stand?
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Presented at IPIECA Low-Emissions Pathways Workshop
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About DNV GL
16,000EMPLOYEES
400OFFICES
100COUNTRIES
Energy Oil & Gas SoftwareBusiness
AssuranceMaritime
151 Year History
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DNV GL has a global presence for Energy Advisory
Solar advisoryservices since 1993
Full range of advisory services—helping our customers to manage risk
Global team of technology experts
Leading financiers, developers and component manufacturers are customers
Barcelona, Spain
Hamburg, Germany
Bristol, England
Singapore
San Ramon, CAUSA
Melbourne,Australia
Bangalore,India
Shanghai,China
Beijing,China
Bangkok,Thailand
San Diego, CA USA
Dresden, Germany
Arnhem, Netherlands
Dubai
Berkeley, CA USA
Montreal,Canada
Troy, NYUSA
Porto Alegre, BrazilSantiago, Chile
Yokohama,Japan
Cape Town,South Africa
Paris, France
Querétaro, Mexico
Hovik, Norway
Izmir,Turkey
Imola, Italy
Austin,Texas
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DNV GL Solar+Storage Services
Independent engineering due diligence for
combined solar and storage project financing
Owner’s engineering for project developers to
support successful implementation
Product testing and demonstration support for
solar modules and components, inverters, storage
device, and combined system applications
Technology reviews (bankability studies)
Independent research and analysis for
component and system safety
Regulatory compliance review
Modeling—impact analysis and valuation—for manufacturers, utilities, developers
Grid Integration for Solar and Storage projects
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Converging Projections in Price Decline
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Storage Cost Estimates Depend Heavily on Systems and Equipment Included
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Energy Storage Technologies are Improving Steadily
Significant incremental improvements in fundamental (cathode) chemistries
– Energy density and cycle life
Titanate and silicone anodes
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Global Energy Storage Technology Mix is Even More Diverse
There is no “single best”
storage technology for all grid
applications – A mix of 3-4
technologies is needed
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Developments in Battery Safety: Off Gas Experimentation and Analyses
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Over 100 cells tested for
failure and abuse conditions
Primary constituents are
electrolytes (DEC, MEC)
– Flammable
Also contain other hazardous
chemicals
– CO, POF3
Contents and quantities
depend on stage of fire
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Custom destructive testing chamber developed by DNV-GL specifically for safety testing
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Market Forces
Solar meets storage & Opportunities on both sides of the meter
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Declining costs lead to large growth predictions forSolar+Storage revenue targets
Storage widely seen where solar market was 10 years ago
– PV started as cost intensive technology… now becoming competitive with conventional generation. Same path predicted for storage with solar as a key driver.
Market research shows early hockey stick growth curve for deployment of combined applications (forecasts vary by region)
Many predict that all Solar systems will include batteries in the next 5-10 years
Applications are emerging to leverage the value that solar alone cannot tap
The use of the combined technologies will further drive volume up and drive prices down
From 2014 IHS report
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Eight emerging dynamics for Solar+Storage
1. Costs declining rapidly for both PV and ES
2. Storage key enabler to increase solar penetration by smoothing variable resource on the grid
3. Solar key enabler to accelerate commercialization of existing and emerging energy storage technologies – new market for repurposing 2nd Life EV batteries
4. Resiliency: electric power systems interdependence – back up power – energy security
+
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Eight emerging dynamics for Solar+Storage
5. Stacked values: Solar and Storage deployments can provide income and cost benefits on both sides of meter
6. Regulatory requirements and financialincentives emerging in several countries
7. Income opportunities for project developers deploying combined technologies in otherwise declining “solar only” markets – self consumption
8. Emotional appeal: customer demand for more energy independence – new product / service
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What is driving Current Surge in Storage Activities?
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On October 17th, 2013, the California CPUC voted 5-0 to implement the targets shown in the chart
Significant in that the ruling allowed the 3 IOU utilities to rate-base storage
May 1st, 2015: Tesla Announcement of the Power Wall Application
Of all changes in the market, there is no longer skepticism to energy storage being a part of our future.
For utilities, Tesla pointed to at least one place where it is now known storage will be deployed
Customers may now start demanding it as well
Courtesy: Tesla Power Wall
California CPUC Storage Ruling
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Resiliency is driving interest in Solar+Storage
Natural disasters have increased visibility of electric power systems and their interdependence
– Super Typhoon Vongfong (2014) and recently, Soudelor (2015) lashed the Pacific Rim countries (China, Taiwan, Philippines, Japan), including Saipan. Major power failures occurred that took about one month to restore.
– Extended outages result in economic, security, and consumer confidence problems:
– homes destroyed, all transportation modes disrupted
Solar+Storage is able to supply critical loads day and night in the absence of electric and gas infrastructure
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Potential revenue streams and energy cost savingsfrom stacked applications
Trade on the spot market
Revenue via availability payments
(TOU, Arbitrage, peak shifting)
Revenue via energy payments
Demand Charge Reductions
Back up power
Cost savings
Offtaker
Revenue via energy payments
PPA
Multiple revenuestreams
Ancillary Services
Frequency Response Voltage Support Ramp Rate Control
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USA pressing driver due to “Duck” Curvein California
– Solar+Storage can be used as tool to “flatten” curve with smart charging / discharging of solar
In 2013, California CPUC implemented 1.3 GW procurement targets till 2020.
The State’s big three Investor-Owned Utilities will procure the ES.
ES will be weaved into CA’s existing energy and utility economic and regulatory structures
Global needs vary
German government began offering €25 million ($34.8 million) in energy-storage subsidies.
Puerto Rico now requires that all new utility-scale renewable energy projects meet demanding interconnection requirements that require storage.
Other emerging incentive programs (NY REV, Ontario, South Korea, Australia)
Asia Pacific (APAC) represent a confluence of several of the top drivers in one market:
To permit higher penetration levels of PV
To support rural electrification
To support resiliency against power outages
To strengthen grid networks
Australia’s off-grid energy storage is estimated to be 1GW in the long term. Domestic grid connected energy storage is leading market demand. The first subsidy program for energy storage has begun in Adelaide. Standards are required to support industry growth.
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What applications are promoting the push to sales? Applications on the Customer side of the meter
Residential
1. Back up power – mostly for critical loads, not whole home service
2. Future for lower electricity costs through TOU meter and energy arbitrage
3. Self consumption is a big driver in regions where net metering is prohibited or not cost effective (e.g. retail electricity rate in Germany is higher than cost of customer generated solar energy)
4. Emotional – even though independence from utility comes at a higher cost
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What applications are promoting the push to sales? Applications on the Customer side of the meter
Commercial and Industrial
1. Demand Charge reductions can save 20-50% on electric bill
2. Access to higher PPA, greater ROI on S+S projects
– TOU shifting can provide higher revenue opportunities
3. Local power quality improvement - grid balancing
4. Back up power–islanding–micro grids gaining popularity (DoD)
5. Additional tax incentives and utility RFPs
Stacked Values through shared resources
– Combining income streams from multiple uses of same equipment (similar to promise of plug in hybrid vehiclebattery use)
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Why is the use of Solar+Storage compelling to Utilities?Applications on the Utility side of the meter
Storage deployed with Solar viewed as a potential “Grid Asset”
– Upgrade Deferral
– Virtual plant-networking distributed storage– Smart Grid DSM + Solar + Storage– Enables greater participation in DG market
Ancillary services
– Frequency regulation– Voltage support– Load following- smoothing
Ramp rate control for grid stability during variable solar (e.g. PR)
Peak Shifting in place of higher cost peaking plant - flexibility
Component of Grid Modernization:
– Packaged solution serves as a resiliency asset for utilities which could lead to a number of unique relations with customer on controls and sharing of assets
Belectric 2 Mhr storage w/ 68 MW PV plant, Brandenberg Germany
Utility adoption of Solar+Storage in early stages of deployment
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Storage
Services
USA
Germ
any
UK
Spain
Neth
erlands
Fra
nce
Italy
Japan
Kore
a
Chin
a
Austr
alia
South
East
Asia
Frequency Regulation
& Spinning Reserve
PV + Storage System
Wind + Storage
System
Community Energy
Storage
C&I Customer
Backup
Substation Support
Residential Storage
Overview of Global Storage Applications
Application Interest the Result of Continuing Price Declines in Both Solar and Storage Systems
Very Active somewhat active Source: DNV GL
Solar+Storage is the most pervasive globally
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Maritime
Hybrid and electric ship applications resemble many aspects of stationary storage
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Emissions from ships
Container CO2 ≈ 75,000NOx ≈ 2,000,000 PM ≈ 2,500,000
OSVCO2 ≈ 6,000NOx ≈ 70,000 PM ≈ 100,000
Tug
CO2 ≈ 400
NOx ≈ 7,000
PM ≈ 12,000
CO2 emission from one big containership ≈ 75,000 cars
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World’s first Zero Emission Electric Car Ferry-Ampère
The first purely battery-driven car and passenger ferry Ampere has won the Ship
Efficiency Award 2015 (Sept) .
Owned by Norled AS is one of Norway's largest ferry and express boat operators,
with 80 vessels.
80 metre long DNV GL classed vessel is one of three ferries operated by the
Norwegian shipping company Norled between Lavik and Oppedal
Ampere is trading in Sognefjord with 100 per cent regularity and consumes 50 per
cent less energy compared with a traditional diesel ferry on the same route
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Status of Hybrid and Battery ships today
– Eidesvik: Viking Lady, hybrid supply vessel, retrofit in Norway 2013
– Østensjø: Edda Ferd, hybrid supply vessel, construction Astilleros in Spain 2013
– Østensjø: large hybrid offshore construction vessel, construction Kleven in Norway 2016
– Fafnir Offshore: hybrid supply vessel, construction Havyard Ship Technology's yard in Leirvik, Norway.
– Island Offshore LNG KS: Island Crusader, construction STX OSV Brevik
– Eidesvik: Viking Queen , hybrid supply vessel, retrofit in Norway 2015
– SVITZER: 4 battery hybrid tugboats, construction of ASL Marine in Singapore
– KOTUG: RT Adriaan, hybrid tugboat in Rotterdam, retrofit 2012
– Foss: Carolyn Dorothy hybrid tug of LA, buildings Foss' Rainier Shipyard in USA, 2009
– Foss: Campbell Foss hybrid tug of LA, retrofit Foss' Rainier Shipyard in USA, 2012
– NORLED: Finnøy, hybrid ferry, retrofit 2013 in Norway
– NORLED: Folgefonn, hybrid/pure battery ferry 2014 in Norway
– Fjord1: Fannefjord LNG, hybrid hybrid ferry, retrofit
– Scottish Government: Hybrid ferry in Scotland, construction of Ferguson in Glasgow
– Scandlines: 4 battery hybrid ferries, retrofit 2013
– University of Victoria: Tsekola II, hybrid research vessel, retrofit in Canada
– NORLED: 100 % battery ferry, built by Fjellstrand in Norway 2015
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Maritime Batteries – Summary
Electrification with Li-ion batteries - a global trend across sectors
Hybridization with Li-ion batteries
– Key driver: RESILIENCY, black out prevention
– Key interests: Ferry, OSV, Shuttle tanker, Drill Ship, Tug boat
– Can produce significant reductions in fuel consumption, maintenance and pollution
– Single generator operation
– 20-30% reduction in fuel consumption
– Enhances LNG based solutions
Maritime power system providers are positioning themselves
– Maritime Battery Forum is established
– Green coastal shipping program is established
– Battery Safety JDP is being established
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SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
www.dnvgl.com
Thank you
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Benjamin H. Gully, PhD.
614-734-6154