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National Centers for Environmental PredictionFY12 Annual Operating Plan Meeting

August 30, 2011

Louis W. UccelliniDirector, NCEP

“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

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Outline

• Opening Comments

• Agenda Highlights

• FY11: Highlights

• FY12: Looking Ahead

• Challenges

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Opening Comments

• Welcome

• Challenging FY11 Budget/Planning Year (Dennis to discuss details)

• Uncertainties Continue for FY12 and Beyond

• In addition to FY12 Activities, Meeting Should Set Stage for October Strategic Session with Newly-Established UCAR Community Advisory Committee for NCEP (UCACN) – attempt to address roadmap to 2020

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Agenda Highlights

• Day 1– FY12: Setting the Stage (L. Uccellini)– Budget/Planning Update (D. Staley)– NCWCP Update (R. Hackenburg/A. Fritz)– Center Overviews (NCO/SPC/CPC/SWPC/EMC)– Developmental Testbed Center/JCSDA

• Day 2 – Center Overviews Con’t (NHC/AWC/OPC/HPC)– Group Lunch: National Harbor– Setting Stage for UCACN October Meeting (L. Uccellini/D. Staley)

• Day 3 (Wrap up by noon)– AOP Summary/Priorities/Next Steps (D. Staley)– Solidify Preparations for UCACN October Meeting (L. Uccellini/D.Staley)– Closing Remarks (L. Uccellini)

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FY11: Highlights

• High Visibility: President of the United States (POTUS) Activities

– Support to India: Delivered Updated CFS and GFS Models to Improve Monsoon Prediction in Support of Food Security

– Space Weather: Established Formal Agreement with UK to Partner and Safeguard our Economies and Societies Against the Growing Risks Posed by Severe Solar Storms

– Japan Tsunami Recovery: Six of Nine Centers Provided Real-Time Operational Support Directly to OSTP and White House Situation Room

– Icelandic Volcanic Eruptions: Provided Leadership in the Collaborative Aviation Forecasting Services among Canada, British and U.S. Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers

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FY11: Highlights

• MOU between NOAA and India's Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)– To develop and transfer extended range and seasonal forecast systems that will permit

more accurate and timely predictions of Indian Monsoons for enhancing food security and other agricultural uses

– NCEP has delivered software and conducted training to allow India to run NCEP’s Global Forecast System and Climate Forecast System

– A jointly funded "Monsoon Desk" has being set up at NOAA's National Center for Environmental Prediction to coordinate numerical model simulations and diagnostics with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and India Meteorological Department during the next five years.

– Activities and agreement were highlighted during President Obama's trip to India in November 2010.

• Space weather MOA with UK Met Office signed in February 2011– a coordinated U.S.-UK partnership to create the world’s first combined

numerical weather and space weather forecast model

• Joining EUROSIP– One of four (NCEP, ECMWF, UKMet, Meteo France) international climate models

included in ensemble to improve seasonal forecasts (Dec 2011)

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Icelandic Volcano• On Saturday May 21, 2011, a large and intense

eruption came from the Icelandic volcano, Grimsvotn, ejecting fine particle ash to a height of 20 km (12 miles).

• This eruption did not have nearly the aviation impact as last year’s Eyjafjallajokull eruption

– Ash from the Grimsvotn eruption was 50-60% larger and fell out more quickly.

– Many new European airspace management procedures were put into place to better manage the airspace during volcanic ash events following the closure of much of the European airspace last year.

• The eruption was an opportunity for NCEP and the Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (W-VAAC) to use the upgraded to the HYSPLIT dispersion modeling system for volcanic ash.

7Concentrations (two hour average)

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Japan Tsunami RecoveryPlume Density Animation for First 54

Days after Initial Release

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• Chicago Blizzard– 3-5 days in advance

• Spring Severe Weather Outbreaks– 5,6,7 days in advance for

major outbreaks April-June• La Nina/Drought (Texas)

Connections– Predicted months in advance

Prediction of Major Extreme EventsDays to Months in Advance

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Day 4 Outlook12Z April 27- 12Z April 28, 2011

NAMSimulated Reflectivity

experimental 4 km NMMB model (to become operational Fall 2011)

Forecast from April 2010

Nine $1B Natural Disasters to date in FY11

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FY11: Highlights

• Made Progress on Many UCAR Review

Recommendations– Completed Over 90% of Action Plans– Established UCAR Community Advisory Committee

for NCEP– Created Quarterly Newsletter– Working New Model Implementation Process– Accelerated Use of Non-NOAA Computing Systems for

Running of NCEP Model Suite (Oak Ridge GAE, Boulder TJET & NCAR, NASA GSFS JCSDA, Several Universities)

– Developed New HPC Strategic Plan

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FY11: Highlights

• Support of NOAA and Other LOs:– Conducted Five Data Denial Assessments and Briefed the

OIG of Findings (NESDIS)– Enhanced Ecosystem Prediction Collaboration and

Implemented Three Bay Models (NOS)

• Expanded Service Support to Field: – Completed Operational Implementation of Medium Range

and Space Wx Products for AK– Provided QPF Support to WR and Puerto Rico– Provided Support for Mississippi and Upper Midwest

Flooding– Expanded Ocean Synergy to Include Hawaii

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FY11: Highlights

• Implemented Model Upgrades (CFSv2, GFS, Three Bay Models for NOS, FNMOC Inclusion in NAEFS, Experimental ENLIL Space Weather Model, HYCOM)

• Completed First Application of the ESMF-Based NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) in Operational Model Suite (NAM)

• Developed Initial EUROSIP Products: Still Working Issues with Length of Reanalysis Required – WGNE Topic

• Developed Day2 and Day3 National Forecast Charts (DHS Request)

• Implemented New Outreach Tools (Model Analysis and Guidance Web Page, Facebook Pages)

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FY11: Highlights

• Expanded Test Bed Collaborative Activities– “Convective” Theme for HWT, HMT AWT

– Notable Expansion of Efforts at HMT/AWT – Focus on Hi-Res Models/Ensembles

– Implementations through JHT, HMT, HWT

– Inaugural Winter Weather Experiment

– Pursuing Ocean Test Bed (w/NOS – IOOS Support))

• GPRA Measures:– Hurricane Track (Met)

– Hurricane Intensity (Not Met)

– Day1 Precipitation (Met)

– U.S. Seasonal Temperature (Met)

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FY12: Looking Ahead

• Weather-Ready Nation and Improved Decision Support Services: Influence of Tornado and Severe Wx Symposium

• Interaction with New UCAR Community Advisory Committee for NCEP – Roadmap for 2020

• Closing Out of Critical C&A Deficiencies (SWPC, Other)

• Activities that Support an “Open” and “Transparent” Weather and Climate Service

• Center Specifics (See Handout)

Major Tactical Efforts

•Move to NCWCP: “once in a lifetime”

•AWIPS2 Transition: “once in a career”

•Computer Transition and Acquisition (Bridge/New Contract): “once in a decade”

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Major Challenges

• Budget Environment• Move to NCWCP• Conversion to AWIPS2• High Performance Computing