when integrated models meet stakeholders and data (& vice-versa) water basin models data...

When integrated models meetstakeholders and data (& vice-versa)

WATER BASIN MODELS

DATA

STAKEHOLDERS

POPULATION

MODELLERS

Barcelona meeting – March 2001

LISC – IRMO – UR3S

Objective

Describe the method followed in the global Describe the method followed in the global approach of :approach of : Water basin management issues assessmentWater basin management issues assessment Stakeholders participation & empowermentStakeholders participation & empowerment Models designModels design Calibration data gatheringCalibration data gathering ValidationValidation UseUse



Participative approach

Protracted cooperation with water councilProtracted cooperation with water council Successive surveys & meetings:Successive surveys & meetings:

Basin issues and representations (Basin issues and representations (done, 7/00)done, 7/00) FIRMA presentation & reaction (FIRMA presentation & reaction (done, 12/00)done, 12/00) Modelling tutorial (5/01)Modelling tutorial (5/01) Scenarios design (6/01)Scenarios design (6/01) Strategic decisions surveys (summer 2001)Strategic decisions surveys (summer 2001) Model re-engineering (end 2001)Model re-engineering (end 2001) … … (Further steps of iterative process)(Further steps of iterative process)



FIRMA : Orb planning European partners

Cemagref Orb participants

1999

2003

Models discussion

Preliminary diagnosis

2000

2001

2002

Core modelling bases

Defining focus / needs / models

Test Orb modelsRegional models

Propositions& viewpoints

R

R

R

R

R

R

R

Validation with scenarios

Evaluation modelResultscomparison

Resultsgeneralisation

Evaluationresults



Orb : the basin issues

Objective of FIRMA in Orb :Objective of FIRMA in Orb : Support water council for mediationSupport water council for mediation

Issues :Issues :1.1. Floods : big issue, but risky businessFloods : big issue, but risky business2.2. Irrigation & scarcity : not a big dealIrrigation & scarcity : not a big deal3.3. Water quality : Water quality : bathing issue, fish bathing issue, fish4.4. + Tourism & Agriculture+ Tourism & AgricultureBUT :BUT : Integrative objective for policy makers = local Integrative objective for policy makers = local

development…development… Objective : keep together population & Objective : keep together population &

environment (W) in a touristic regionenvironment (W) in a touristic region



Stakes / actors / usage system

Floods

Quality

Quantity

River restauration

Agriculture

Tourism

Gravels

Housing

Energy

Local actors and institutions

ActionsDecisions

Evaluation vs stakesand W uses



Basin survey : some resultsInondations : les causes avancées

Agr

icul

ture

Expl

.U

rban

.Ene

grie

.

Gestion BRLAvène

Pas d’écrêtement

Pas d’écrêtement possiblePosition Avène ds le bassin

Mét

éo. Bassin entonnoir

orages méditerranéens

Relief barrière

Houle & vent de mer

Épisodes concentrés

imprévisibilité

Conjonctions défavorables

Infos météo imprécises

Déficit d’annoncede crues

Détériorationripisylve

Gestion EDFLaouzas incontrôlée

Faucardage

Endiguementdes affluents

Abandon descultures

Dépriseamont

EmbâclesDétériorationberges

Genèse Aléa

PropagationAmplification

DégâtsVulnérabilité

Trt mécaniquedes vignobles

Non submersiondes vignobles Enherbement

vignoblesVignes

immersibles

Plantationstransversales

Chgt feuillus résineux

Barragerétention

Urbanisationaval

Pression touristiqueen aval

Transfert viaCanal du Midi

Oubli des crues

Habitaten RDC

ImperméabilisationUrbanisation

en z inondable

Voiries transversesaux écoulements

rivière

nappeAstienne

nappes d’accompagnement

littoral

canal du Midi

eau potableforage

tourismebaignade

qualité biologique

milieu

tourismepavillon bleu

Processus hydrologiques

agriculture

domestique

industrie

navigation

pêche

aménagements

Qualité

R e s t i t u t i o n a c t e u r s @ S M V O – B é z i e r s – 5 / 1 2 / 2 0 0 0

L I S C – I R M O – U R 3 S

r i v i è r e

n a p p eA s t i e n n e

n a p p e s d ’ a c c o m p a g n e m e n t

l i t t o r a l

e a u p o t a b l ef o r a g e

t o u r i s m eb a i g n a d e

q u a l i t é b i o l o g i q u e

m i l i e u

t o u r i s m ep a v i l l o n b l e u

P r o c e s s u s h y d r o l o g i q u e s

A v è n e

a g r i c u l t u r e

p ê c h e

s e u i l s

I r r i g a t i o n

L i g n e d ’ e a u

s p o r t s

S o u t i e n d ’ é t i a g e

P r o j e t a q u e d u cr h ô n e - b a r c e l o n e ?

Q u a n t i t é



Cemagref background

HydrologyHydrology Spatial analyisSpatial analyis Role playing games for negotiation supportRole playing games for negotiation support Social simulationSocial simulation

Social networks dynamicsSocial networks dynamics Stakeholders / stake representation modelsStakeholders / stake representation models Representation spaces designRepresentation spaces design



Possible models and usage choices

role playing games and models for collective role playing games and models for collective managementmanagement

prospective simulation of the basin, with prospective simulation of the basin, with population dynamicspopulation dynamics

negotiation models for flooded areanegotiation models for flooded area TRY :TRY : Design a representation of the evolution of Design a representation of the evolution of

the Orb basin, unders various scenarios the Orb basin, unders various scenarios (weather, economy, migrations, water (weather, economy, migrations, water strategies), with outputs as water issues, strategies), with outputs as water issues, economy & demography. Have this evaluated economy & demography. Have this evaluated and modified by actors. Start actual process…and modified by actors. Start actual process…



Model’s structure (extended Thursday WP3)

Water environment + population (+ economy)Water environment + population (+ economy) Time horizon : + 15 years (back Time horizon : + 15 years (back 40 years) 40 years) Time step : ~ season (cf tourism)Time step : ~ season (cf tourism) Main processes :Main processes :

• Migrations (housing & tourism)Migrations (housing & tourism)• Land use evolutionLand use evolution• Water use changes (demand & wastes)Water use changes (demand & wastes)• Tourism dynamicsTourism dynamics

!!! A common model but different possible approaches of !!! A common model but different possible approaches of model use and degrees of realism of representationsmodel use and degrees of realism of representations



Model participative design

Objective :Objective : design models structure & content with design models structure & content with actors, to facilitate appropriation actors, to facilitate appropriation ask for : ask for :

model focusmodel focus known environmental and social dynamicsknown environmental and social dynamics main inputs and leveragesmain inputs and leverages interesting descriptorsinteresting descriptors scenariosscenarios past observed processespast observed processes validation of what’s done and resultsvalidation of what’s done and results

Requires preliminary education ???Requires preliminary education ???



Models, participation & surveys

Models for what ? What’s in (Models for what ? What’s in (which agents, which agents, interactions and organisations)interactions and organisations) ? ? Model design Model design ParticipatoryParticipatory

Model calibrationModel calibration Participatory (role playing)Participatory (role playing) SurveysSurveys

Model validationModel validation ParticipatoryParticipatory

Model useModel use ParticipatoryParticipatory



Modelling strategy

• 2 incremental steps (decreasing abstraction) :2 incremental steps (decreasing abstraction) :1.1. CA model fitting population data & WaterCA model fitting population data & Water

• Population clusters dynamicsPopulation clusters dynamics• Group dynamics & water demandsGroup dynamics & water demands• Attractivity = f (water, pop, economy)Attractivity = f (water, pop, economy)

• Cf. litterature review (Margaret)Cf. litterature review (Margaret)

2.2. Individual models Individual models (end 2001…)(end 2001…)• Practice choices with social influencesPractice choices with social influences• Local environment / decision modelLocal environment / decision model• Attractivity = f ( self, others, environment)Attractivity = f ( self, others, environment)

RE

AL

WO

RL

D

VIR

TU

AL

WO

RL

D



Multi-agent design

Heterogeneous interaction patterns in CAHeterogeneous interaction patterns in CA 4 main layers : water, population, land use, economy4 main layers : water, population, land use, economy Cells composed with quasi-agents (incl. changing Cells composed with quasi-agents (incl. changing

interactions & strategy for change)interactions & strategy for change) Fitting statistical data & some (limited) surveysFitting statistical data & some (limited) surveys

Individual modelsIndividual models Multi-criteria model with social influence through Multi-criteria model with social influence through

versatile social networksversatile social networks Fitting data and surveysFitting data and surveys



Model use scenario

1.1. Appropriation Appropriation (Alone / Group)(Alone / Group)• Actors play with modelActors play with model

2.2. Modification, criticisms (A/G)Modification, criticisms (A/G)• Actors disagree, propose changes in the MActors disagree, propose changes in the M

3.3. Scenarios designs and test (A)Scenarios designs and test (A)

4.4. Proposals and discussions (G)Proposals and discussions (G)

5.5. Transmission to represented people (ATransmission to represented people (A G) G)

6.6. Validation of decisions (A & G)Validation of decisions (A & G)



Calibration & Validation

From data (existing and specific surveys)From data (existing and specific surveys) Population modelsPopulation models Spatial grains design (crossing grids)Spatial grains design (crossing grids) Individual strategic models with questionnairesIndividual strategic models with questionnaires Physical (water, flows) time seriesPhysical (water, flows) time series

From knowledge (participation)From knowledge (participation) Dynamic relation between issues / objects Dynamic relation between issues / objects

(qualitative description)(qualitative description) Empirical validation (experts)Empirical validation (experts)



Data needs & requirements

EnvironmentEnvironment• LanduseLanduse• WaterWater

PopulationPopulation• Water demand & useWater demand & use• Structure and evolutionStructure and evolution• Migration preferences & change decisionsMigration preferences & change decisions• Social networksSocial networks

EconomyEconomy• Costs and benefitsCosts and benefits



Population behavior surveys ???

Characteristics of interviewee (ref pop. data)Characteristics of interviewee (ref pop. data) Behavior vs. :Behavior vs. :

Mobility and housingMobility and housing Water useWater use

Process of changeProcess of change Self evolutionSelf evolution Social influencesSocial influences



Problems & questions…

1.1. Disagregation level & heterogeneous scalesDisagregation level & heterogeneous scales

2.2. Interface for models & participationInterface for models & participation

3.3. Relevant parameters (Relevant parameters (indicatorsindicators) vs. data) vs. data1.1. EnvironmentalEnvironmental

2.2. Management Management

4.4. Cross-validationCross-validation

5.5. Attractivity of waters for populationsAttractivity of waters for populations

6.6. Validation through role playing gamesValidation through role playing games



Conclusion : agenda

FIRMA cooperation :FIRMA cooperation : Can provide :Can provide :

Actors representation surveys methodologiesActors representation surveys methodologies Individual decision & population structure surveysIndividual decision & population structure surveys Role playing games methodologiesRole playing games methodologies Hydrological modelsHydrological models

Need :Need : Participative methods theoryParticipative methods theory Economic valuation methods…Economic valuation methods… Interfaces, ergonomyInterfaces, ergonomy Cognitive (deliberative) modelsCognitive (deliberative) models Qualitative models and representationsQualitative models and representations

when integrated models meet stakeholders and data (& vice-versa) water basin models data...

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