When everything meets everything

Webmanagers Roundtable

Lee Rainie – Director PIP

4.13.05

Steve Bartman’s journey

Home media capacity - 1975

Product Route to home Display Local storage

TV stations phone TV Cassette/ 8-track

broadcast TV radio

broadcast radio stereo Vinyl album

Local news mail

Advertising newspaper delivery phone

Radio Stations

non-electronic

Tom Wolzein, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co

Home media capacity – now

Product Route to home Display Local storage cable VCR

TV stations phone/DSL TVInfo wireless radio DVD“Daily me” broadcast TV PC Web-based storage content Server/ TiVo (PVR)Cable Nets broadcast radio stereo PCWeb sites satellite monitorLocal news mail headphones CD/CD-ROMContent from express delivery pager individuals iPod / storage MP3 player / iPodPeer-to-peer subcarriers / WIFI cell phone pagers - PDAsAdvertising newspaper delivery phone cable boxRadio stations PDA/Palm game console

game console Satellite radio non-electronic Storage sticks/disks

Adopted from Tom Wolzein, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Perc

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dults

Being online is the norm – but it is not universal

9/11 attacks 67%

Broadband adoption

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10

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60

Jun-

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Feb-0

1

Jun-

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Oct-

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Feb-0

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Oct-

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Feb-0

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Mill

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58 million

Portrait of Access: Late 2002

Portrait of Access: March 2005

Expectations are skyrocketing

Fragmented media environment(% of all Americans who “regularly” go to news source: PRC People/Press)

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1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Local TV

Natl TV news

Cable news

Newspapers

Radio

Online News

People’s media-use habits are changing

The proportion of each group who say these channels are main sources of political news for them*

Non-internet users

All internet users

Those with broadband at home

Television 85% 75% 70%Fox News Cable Channel 15% 21% 21%

CNN 18% 20% 22%

Local 24% 15% 12%

NBC 14% 13% 12%

ABC 14% 12% 9%

CBS 14% 8% 6%

MSNBC 4% 8% 8%

CNBC 2% 3% 2%

Newspapers 40% 38% 36%

Internet NA 28% 38%

Radio 15% 17% 17%

Magazines 3% 3% 3%Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project November 2004 Survey. N=2200. Margin of error is ±2%. *Numbers do not add to 100% because of

multiple answers

Kaiser Family Foundation, Generation M, March 2005

Multitasking and attention deficits: What else were you doing when you last…

Watched TV

Listened to radio

Read a newspaper

Used the internet

Talked on the phone

Watched TV * 9 38 17 54

Listened to radio 13 * 21 16 30

Read a newspaper 43 21 * 2 14

Used the internet 20 17 2 * 19

Talked on the phone 57 25 14 18 *

Source: Forrester Research, 2004

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Auction

New housing

Read blogs

New job

Buy products

Create content

Health info

Financial info

Games

Travel info

Research for school/training

Banking

IM

Product research

Work-related research

Hobby

Brow se for fun

Weather

New s

Search engine

Email

Typical day – 81 million are online and here is what they are doing (full table available at: http://www.pewinternet.org/trends/Daily_Activities_3.02.05.htm)

What people do online – typical day(March 2005 Pew Internet Survey; * is Dec. 2004 survey)

Internet activity Broadband Dial-up

Log on (any reason) 69% 50%

Email 66 44

Hobby 28 15

Job-related research 27 14

Audio/video clip* 20 3

Log on wirelessly* 17 5

Instant message 16 8

Chat rooms 5 2

Social networking 4 --

View images remotely 3 2

New internet activities – 1Content creation (5 mill. a day)

New internet activities – 2 … File sharing through

peer-to-peer networks (5-7 mill. a day)

http://bt.etree.org/index.php

863 MB file

Phish

New internet activities – 3Reputation systems (3 mill. a day)

Impacts: Social life

The internet adds in some ways to social capital

People use the internet more seriously as they gain experience

Broadband connections change internet user behavior

E-patients are creating a new health care environment

E-citizens are creating a new civic environment

Impacts: Personal life Break down traditional barriers

• Home/work/school• Public/private• Consumer/producer

Everyday life rhythms – time shifting• Communicating• Entertaining• Transactions• “Info snacking” and news “playlists”

Dark side – stress, info overload, fewer secrets

Impacts: People’s relationship to information Information as social sharing Information sources are my friends: Dr.

Google, Pastor Yahoo “Daily Me” Challenges to credibility

New Reality 1: Interactivity matters profoundly

You are in constant “conversation” with your customers• They can be your greatest resource because they

know more than you do!

People like to create content and they expect to be able to interact online• 44% have created content and posted it online

• 57% of broadband users have done so

New Reality 2: People have new ways to talk about you

The velocity of information matters – this is the era of “smart mobs”

“Through the internet, people are discovering and inventing new ways to share relevant knowledge with blinding speed. As a direct result, markets are getting smarter – and getting smarter faster than most companies.”

– Cluetrain Manifesto, Rick Levine, Christopher Locke, Doc Searls, and David Weinberger

The permanence of information matters – search engines and linked databases make much more material accessible much more quickly

New Reality 3: This is the era of the “daily me” and “my media”

More than half of internet users belong to listservs and other email groups organized around a topic, organization, or group

More than a third of internet users customize information at Web sites

25% get e-newsletters 5% get RSS feeds Podcasts are catching on

New Reality 4: Tech elite & information

Household as a node on the information network

Content is an intermediate input to be:• Mashed-up

• Recombined

• Redistributed Content is fluid:

• Sometimes it’s free

• Sometimes they pay for it

Further thoughts about a webmanager’s response

Act like a news service and syndicate Practice search engine optimization:

Google and Yahoo are your home page! Design for deep entry into your site Believe that the “Long Tail” is your friend Network like mad and find your allies Plan for peak moments and valley

moments

Pace of change for digital power ACCELERATES into the future…

Computing power – doubles every 18 months – Moore’s Law

Communication power doubles every 9 months with compression and fiber-capacity improvements – Gilder’s law

• Spectrum power – better and more efficient

Storage power doubles every 12 months – disk law

Trend 1: Device power and the rise of the “internet of things”

More “smart” gadgets and “dumb” appliances plug in

The network of the future is “one in which every machine with electricity is essentially on the Net, where everywhere you are – except the desert or the Rockies – you can instantaneously be connected to the internet.”

--- Prof. Larry Lessig, Free Culture

Trend 2: Mobility power

The wireless connection in those devices grows• 66% own cell phones

• 39% own digital cameras

• 18% own laptops with wireless connections

• 12% Blackberries and wireless PDAs

Smart mobs proliferate

Trend 3: Content creation and content sharing power

The volume of people’s postings skyrockets, and the tools for sharing expand

Trend 4: Search power will expand and become more social Improvements in

“semantic web” – contextualized search

Customized and local search

Social search and validation (reputation systems and social media)• Collaborative filtering,

tagging, social filters

Ahead

“For us [the future means] making content mobile and accessible, so it can be delivered on demand to any application or device, at any time or place.”

--- Tom Curley, CEO Associated Press

Speech to Online Press Association, November 12, 2004