wheat market overview · 2017-10-23 · hard red spring australia (asw & apw) protein content...
TRANSCRIPT
Wheat Market Overview
Shawn CampbellDeputy DirectorUSW-Portland
Columbia River Grain Exports (June-May)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
TMT
Other
Soybeans
Corn
Wheat
Pacific Wheat Export Sales 10/5/17
Export SalesHRW: 1.8 MMT (+2%)HRS: 2.9 MMT (+3%)SW: 2.9 MMT (+39%)Total: 7.7 MMT (+14%)
Pacific Wheat Export Sales 10/5/17North Asia
HRW: 0.9 MMT (+2%)HRS: 1.6 MMT (+16%)SW: 1.2 MMT (+60%)Total: 3.7 MMT (+23%)
Latin AmericaHRW: 0.3 MMT (-44%)HRS: 0.1 MMT (-8%)SW: 0.2 MMT (+81%)Total: 0.6 MMT (-21%)
South AsiaHRW: 0.6 MMT (+61%)HRS: 1.2 MMT (-10%)SW: 1.4 MMT (+20%)Total: 3.2 MMT (+11%)
Middle EastSW: 0.2 MMT (+43%)Total: 0.2 MMT (+43%)
Pacific Wheat Export Sales 10/5/17
Pacific Wheat Exports Over Time
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Thou
sand
Met
ric T
onne
s
10 Year Trend+102.9 TMT per year
U.S. Wheat Exports Over Time
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Thou
sand
Met
ric T
onne
s
10 Year Trend-630.6 TMT per year
U.S. Wheat Production and Area
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Production (TMT)
Area (1000 Acres)
Linear (Production (TMT))
Linear (Area (1000 Acres))
10 Year Trend-726.8 TMT per year
-1133.4 thousand acres per year
Pacific 5 State Production and Area
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Production (TMT)
Area (1000 Acres)
Linear (Production (TMT))
Linear (Area (1000 Acres))
10 Year Trend-22.0 TMT per year
-233.5 thousand acres per year
10 Year Growth Trend Top 7 Exporters
Argentina+0.1 MMT
USA-0.6 MMT
Canada+0.5 MMT
Australia+0.8 MMT
EU+1.5 MMT
Ukraine+1.2 MMT
Russia+1.7 MMT
Why Pacific Exports Are Holding Up
Why Pacific Exports Are Holding Up
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
Arge
ntin
a
Fran
ce
Danu
be
Hard
Red
Spr
ing
Aust
ralia
(ASW
& A
PW)
Prot
ein
Cont
ent
Relative Exportable SurplusHa
rd R
ed W
inte
r
Cana
da (C
PS &
CW
RW)
Kaza
khst
an
Aust
ralia
(AH
& A
PH)
Cana
da (C
WRS
)
Ukr
aine G
erm
any
Balti
c Se
a
Russ
ia
Soft
Whi
te
Soft
Red
Win
ter
Cana
da (C
E &
CW
SWS)
Why Pacific Exports Are Holding Up
75% of U.S. Pacific wheat exports are on the outer edges
of the spectrum.
Why Pacific Exports Are Holding UpRaising wheat with
high quality and marketable value.
Market transparency and
education.
Technical training, troubleshooting,
and support.
Why Pacific Exports Are Holding UpDiscerning
customers with the income to get what
they want.
Cleaning wheat to a 0.3 percent
dockage level.
Chemical residue testing and strict
sanitary and phytosanitary restrictions.
Questions?