What's the Future of Smart Growth in America?

presented by Don Chen

Cleveland State University

15 December 2006

Governors

• 25 governors re-elected, 11 new governors elected

• Democrats picked up 6 seats – 28 Democratic Governors – 22 Republican Governors

Gubernatorial Election

Governors

Governors & Smart Growth

• Not a campaign issue in most states• However some DID campaign on it - mostly very low

key– Patrick (MA) [TOD]; O’Malley (MD); Rell (CT); Baldacci

(ME) [endorsed Brookings rpt and rail]; Lynch (NH); Bredesen (TN) [transit]

• For others it was moot; they had governed on it already

– Granholm (MI); Napolitano (AZ); Schwarzenegger (CA) [form-based codes];Richardson (NM); Douglas (VT); Doyle (WI)

Governors & Smart Growth

• However, several more appear poised to govern on these issues:

– Spitzer (NY)

– Strickland (OH)

– Ritter (CO)

Energy

• Energy Security an Issue– Renewables – Alternative energy sources

• Transportation– Rarely linked

• “Household” energy security– Not on the agenda

Legislatures

• Democrats gained control of 5 state legislatures

– Democrats control both houses in 25 states, Republicans control both in 14 states, 10 are split

• Democrats picked up roughly 323 seats

LegislaturesControl of both houses

LegislaturesParty control switch

Government ControlGovernor’s seat & Control of both houses

Ballot Initiatives

• Voter fatigue likely led to a smaller percentage of ballot initiatives passing

• Anti-government initiatives failed– Term limits– Limits on the judiciary– Tax limitations– Regulatory takings

Ballot Initiatives & Smart Growth

• Transportation– All 7 statewide transportation initiatives

passed (CA-4, MN, NJ, RI)– 3 involved funding for transit

• Environment & Natural Resources– 23 states approved nearly 100 ballot

measures– $5.73 billion increase state or local

funding for land conservation

Colorado

Oregon Measure 37

• Earlier version (Measure 7) passed in 2000, but found unconstitutional

• Measure 37 passed in 2004

• Land Use

• Retroactive

• Pay or Waive

Exporting Measure 37

• The libertarian movement’s plan is to export the success they have had in Oregon to other states.

• Kelo-Plus strategy

Eminent Domain

Ballot Initiatives & Smart Growth

• Regulatory Takings– California: failed 48%-52%– Washington: failed 41%-59%– Idaho: failed 24%-76%– Arizona: passed 65%-35%– Nevada & Montana

What does is mean for Smart Growth?

• We can go on the offensive– Educate administrators and political

leaders – Engage at the state level– Make Smart Growth the answer (relate to

topical issues- energy, climate, economic prosperity, transportation)

• Inoculate ourselves– Fix eminent domain

A Grassroots Effort?

• How do the initiatives get on the ballots?

• Where does the money come from?

Following the Money• In Arizona, California, Idaho, and Washington proponents reported having raised more than $5.7 million through September 21.

• Organizations led by Howard Rich have contributed nearly 85 percent of the total.

15%other

85% Howard Rich-FundedOrganizations

California Prop 90 Polling and ResultsCalifornia Prop 90 Polling and Results

36%32%

30%34%

37%40%

37%33% 33% 32% 33%

35%

40%42% 43% 42%

48%

34%38% 39%

41% 40% 40% 41%43%

41% 40%37% 38% 38%

40% 41%45%

52%

18%20%

29%27%

25%27%

30% 29% 30%

25%23%

19%22% 22%

25%27% 28%

25%22%

18%14% 13%

0%

43%

37%

42%

37%39%38%

36%32%

37%35%34%35%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2006

Total Yes Total No Undecided

Total Yes 42% 43% 37% 38% 39% 37% 36% 32% 30% 34% 37% 40% 37% 33% 33% 32% 33% 35% 40% 42% 43% 42% 48%

Total No 36% 37% 32% 35% 34% 35% 34% 38% 39% 41% 40% 40% 41% 43% 41% 40% 37% 38% 38% 40% 41% 45% 52%

Undecided 18% 20% 29% 27% 25% 27% 30% 29% 30% 25% 23% 19% 22% 22% 25% 27% 28% 25% 22% 18% 14% 13% 0%

June 15-22

Aug 27-31

Oct. 12, 15-

16

Oct. 15-17

Oct. 16-18

Oct. 17-19

Oct. 18-19, 21

Oct. 19, 21-

22

Oct. 21-23

Oct. 22-24

Oct. 23-25

Oct. 24-26

Oct. 25-28

Oct. 27-29

Oct. 28-30

Oct. 29-31

Oct 30-Nov 1

Oct 31-Nov 2

Nov.1-2,4

Nov. 2,4-5

Nov4-6

Nov. 6Final Vote

47%55% 55%

21%

32%

18% 20%

0%

39%33%

35% 41%

22%

23%

44% 43%45%

59%

23%

23%

22%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Total Yes Total No Undecided

Total Yes 47% 55% 55% 39% 33% 35% 41%

Total No 21% 22% 23% 44% 43% 45% 59%

Undecided 32% 23% 22% 18% 23% 20% 0%

Mar 29 - Apr 2

May 10-15 July 15-19 Oct 3 Oct 19 Oct 25-26 Final Result

Washington I-933 Polling and ResultsWashington I-933 Polling and Results

Insert series of map slides here

What is our preliminary framework for policy reform?

3

1

2

5

Fix the Basics

4

Build on Economic Strengths

Grow the Middle Class

Transform the Physical Landscape

Create Neighborhoods of

Choice

3

What does is mean for Smart Growth?

• Opportunity to build new alliances and constituencies– Reach out to new groups outside our

traditional alliances– Build grassroots support

For More Information

www.smartgrowthamerica.org