what's the future of cleantech - online brainstroming results
DESCRIPTION
Cleantech Finland asked for views on the future of cleantech through a digital brainstorming in fall 2011. Almost 1.500 insights from cleantech experts in 66 countries. http://solved.fi/?q=node/505TRANSCRIPT
THE FUTURE OF CLEANTECH
RESULTS FROM GLOBAL
ONLINE BRAINSTORMING
10/2011-1/2012
Santtu Hulkkonen & Jani Timonen, Cleantech Finland
Objectives
• To identify future trends in cleantech globally
• To evaluate the probability and impact of issues affecting cleantech
development
Background
• Brainstorming was conducted by Cleantech Finland and Fountain Park in
10/2011–1/2012
• Up to 1500 expert answers and comments from 66 countries
Primary affiliation %-share
Business 60,4 %
Government 12,5 %
Research or science 7,1 %
Student 2,8 %
Investor 2,1 %
Media 5,7 %
Other 9,4 %
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OBJECTIVES & BACKGROUND
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
There are only minor differences in what people talk about between the
highest participation countries (India, China, UK, USA, Finland)
• 4 key aspects
• Public opinion
• Individual people, consumers
• Technology to solve one or more of the key challenges
• Major occurrence or disruption changing current ways of thinking
• More information is wanted
• New information through research, testing, experimentation, etc.
• Distribution of information is very important
• Concrete examples and individual experiences are making huge difference
• Political decision makers, business and investors react and follow
rather than drive change
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WHAT PEOPLE TALK ABOUT WHEN ASKED: “THINK
ABOUT FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS. WHAT COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY SHAPE THE FUTURE OF CLEANTECH?”
Public sector role, energy efficiency and business infra. In spontaneous responses
transportation, social media, food and green construction are the least relevant themes
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WORLD
WHAT PEOPLE TALK ABOUT WHEN ASKED: “THINK
ABOUT FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS. WHAT COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY SHAPE THE FUTURE OF CLEANTECH?”
Participants from India highlight waste clearly higher than other parts of the world
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INDIA
% = share of answers that
include the keyword for this class
WHAT PEOPLE TALK ABOUT WHEN ASKED: “THINK
ABOUT FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS. WHAT COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY SHAPE THE FUTURE OF CLEANTECH?”
Respondents in China put special emphasis on people issues
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CHINA
% = share of answers that
include the keyword for this class
WHAT PEOPLE TALK ABOUT WHEN ASKED: “THINK
ABOUT FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS. WHAT COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY SHAPE THE FUTURE OF CLEANTECH?”
UK responses are in line with the overall results
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UK
% = share of answers that
Include the keyword for this class
% = share of answers that
include the keyword for this class
WHAT PEOPLE TALK ABOUT WHEN ASKED: “THINK
ABOUT FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS. WHAT COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY SHAPE THE FUTURE OF CLEANTECH?”
USA participants rank innovation higher than the rest of the world. In other areas the
responses are in line with the overall results.
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USA
% = share of answers that
include the keyword for this class
EVALUATION OF PROBABILITY
AND IMPACT
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WHAT PEOPLE TALK ABOUT AND WHAT IS CONSIDERED TO
HAVE HIGH PROBABILITY (ALL)
Blue bar = volume of the theme in all answers
Green bar = importance (relative)
• People talk the most
about public sector role,
energy efficiency and
business infra
• The highest probability is
given to economy, energy
efficiency and business infra
related topics
• The second high priority
group of topics includes
renewable energy, food and
people
• Lowest probability topics
are nuclear, public sector
and non-renewables
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WHAT IS SHAPING THE FUTURE OF CLEANTECH
WITH HIGH PROBABILITY?
• GOVERNMENT COMMITMENT
• People talk the most about public sector role, business infra and energy efficiency
• Raising cost of utilizing currently used energy resources etc. leads to changes in decision
making
• Political will is wanted and needed to speed up the progress
• PEOPLE
• Awareness of the real cost of pollution growing
• Consumers should know about the advantages of clean technologies
• Cheaper technologies can be used by people that have never even dreamed of cleantech
• Individual people find greener ways of thinking, living and acting
• Research into what drives people to use cleantech products
• GLOBAL TRENDS
• Business environment has integrated – investors act more globally than locally
• Global network for cooperation in forums of R&D and solutions
• The greatest economic opportunities and environmental challenges are in Asia
• Innovative urban solutions and systems is a future business growth area, i.e. smart
urbanization, smart grid, clean transportation
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Value-based research – People will eventually get tired of "only" trying to make money
Curtailment of nuclear power
If investment banks had a 10+ year focus – Getting humanity back to 10+ year focus
will change how people see cleantech and how clean products show in ROI comparisons
Social media as interaction – a way of common action – network effect will cause
the acceleration of the need and demand for cleantech solutions
One well-known industrial country taking a clear lead – One prominent industrial
country taking a clear lead by launching a long-term cleantech program that is politically
anchored in all political camps, bold and includes everything from policy to funding
“Investing into natural capital becomes profitable. We will finally realize that nature is not
our biggest enemy we need to take advantage of, but in fact our best business partner.”
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POTENTIAL WILD CARDS
WHAT PEOPLE TALK ABOUT AND WHAT HAS
HIGH POTENTIAL IMPACT (ALL)
Blue bar = volume of the theme in all answers
Green bar = importance (relative)
• People talk the most about
the importance and impact
of communication and PR in
raising awareness and
changing attitudes towards
cleantech and the
environment in general
• Other high impact areas
are water, air/climate,
nuclear and transportation
• Lower potential impact is
given to innovation, food
and social media related
topics
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HIGH PROBABILITY & HIGH POTENTIAL IMPACT
Highest significance areas are energy efficiency and economy. Second group in terms of
significance includes water, air/climate, communication/PR and people related topics.
Note: Green construction is included in energy efficiency
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WORLD
LOOKING AT KEY CLASSES
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ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• Shortage of resources and cost of energy are key drivers
towards improved efficiency
• Using technology to improve efficiency in production,
transportation, storage and use
• Urbanization continues in the world and increasingly efficient
energy usage is critical
Shortage of energy resources. Rapid urbanization worldwide and a ubiquitous real-time networked civil environment will require an exponential broadening of energy resources. Localized sources of supply (renewables), efficient usage and cost effective storage are needed.
Smart grid
development
Smart urban area
development
Implementation of
regulation in smart
cities and the
attraction of people
interest in being
more attentive to
energy efficiency.
Citizens rewarded for sustainable living Citizens could receive tax rebates or other incentives for becoming more sustainable; i.e. using less energy at home, growing their own food, recycling water, etc. Some type of tracking/accounting system could be developed so that citizens have some financial incentive to maintain a more sustainable lifestyle. Rewards could come from companies that manufacture certain products or from local governments.
Copyright © Cleantech Finland 2012
ECONOMY
• Economic situation is very challenging and takes focus away from
environmental aspects
• Economic growth leads to growing challenges on the environment
• If/when the global focus is shifted more towards environmental
issues, new business opportunities start to open up for cleantech
companies
Global government
policies. Due to economic downturn
(and several other reasons)
the decision-making in
many countries (incl. the
U.S.) is inconsistent, and
the energy and
environmental policies may
change or discontinue
abrubtly. This significantly
hampers the development
and deployment of clean
technologies.
Serious investments to infrastructure's modernization In case if Russia finds/stimulates investments to modernization of the infrastructure of for instance municipal housing economy, new segments for cleantech will be immediatly opened.
Economic growth in Asia and
the need to limit pollutants World population is growing as
well as the world economy.
Biggest growth takes place in
developing countries, esp in Asia.
On the other hand, pollution and
the limeted resources shape the
development towards more
efficient and less polluting society
and technologies.
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WATER
• Importance of clean water raising significantly
• Efficient water treatment systems are vital (fresh water, sea
water, sewage, recycling)
• New solutions to water efficiency
• Clean water will be a political issue one day, it may even become
a reason for war
Shortage of water resources.
Clean, viable water resources
are under stress. Changing
climates, due to long lasting
high atmospheric pressure
zones, are causing droughts,
which bring populations in
competition with agriculture.
Clean technologies that find
efficient solutions - i.e., water
minimization, recycling,
harvesting, etc. - are needed.
Water treatment
more and more
important
drinking water
resources, if cheap
energy then no
problem (sea water),
sewage treatment, to
save the ecological
conditions.
Water shortages are looming
as the greatest near-term
problem following from global
warming.
Good sweet clean water is
scarce. We will obviously have to
go to the salt water. New
technology in this area with a low
cost would no doubt help a lot of
countries.
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AIR, CLIMATE
• Need to shift from just watching and waiting to action
• Financial support and financial penalty both play a role
• Charging-based clear regulation drives actions
• Public opinion and awareness of individuals are important factors
Cost of pollution
If public and private bodies would
have a way to assess individual
emissions. Money talks. If
polluting is more expensive, more
new technology will be applied.
Public opinion and everyone's
will to change thinking.
We should move from climate
change fear to actions and do
something instead of waiting.
Public opinion is crucial to get
money for cleantech investments
and to get companies develop
new ways of production etc.
Financal support some clean technologies are too expensive for "normal people". so there must be financial support from the government. there are several support systems in austria, but there must be done more to reach (or to get closer to) emission goals (like kyoto)
Global agreement has been
tried already twice (at least). This
card has been played, and it
showed to be vague. What can
turn up better is global
agreements between cities (i.e.
C40 movement). Completely
bypassing states and countries.
Cities are anyways where the
battle on climate change is
played and lost or won.
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COMMUNICATION, PR
• Need to increase awareness globally
• Politicians make legislation but the public elects them. Public
opinion is necessary to move politicians.
• Developing countries are the main factor
• Social media can have a major role
The awareness of consumers Through possibilities as social media and internet, linking the ideas of people will enable the cleantech revolution to truly begin. As the consumers will have better possibilities to understand their impacts, but at the same time devote effort to turning them into positive impacts, rather than negative.
Consumers can have a strong impact. But there shoud be organized ways to organize the power otherwise it will be something here and there but not really anything big. Could it be Greenpeace? I don´t know. It should be unpolitical movement.
Different segments have different
perspective towards the clean
technology and considering the
high capital investment with ROI
taking long time the impact is
slow . Every individual of the
planet need to realize the
importance of sustainability and
Govt along private organization
need to create the campaigns
and promotional activities.
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PEOPLE
• Consumer behavior is key
• Pressure to political decision-making needs to come from the people
• Changes are expected to be slow but there are new signs
• 100s of millions of people will move to cities – only ecocities can
make this possible
Dramatic changes in
energy supplies
change thinking
For example, dramatic
catastrophe at a
nuclear powerplant in
Japan, oil spill in U.S -
change the way of
thinking of people,
governments etc
Consumers become prosumers This is happening. ZipCar. AirBNB. This will crack consumerism from the inside. Leading to degrowth and end of fun life for many. Maybe not the politicians and others measuring things by GDP. Even for that purpose, we must get new measures so that once GDP goes down, we can show something else (positive) goes up.
People's interest in
consumption will change as
they notice that this can have an
effect. People might even enjoy
simple life styles in future more
than consuming. Nature and
saving the planet will become the
most important goal in people's
functions.
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TOP 3 TAKE-AWAYS
POWER OF NETWORKS
• Scale local challenges to global solutions – and global challenges to local solutions
TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANTAGE
• Self-evident solutions have high global demand (e.g. energy efficiency, renewable energy, water and waste treatment)
• Innovations save environment and economy
INFORMATION IS WANTED AND NEEDED
• Attitude makes the big difference
• Different ways to boost cleantech industry (education, government, discussion)
• Public opinion and public sector are key factors
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KIITOS. TACK. THANK YOU.
www.cleantechfinland.com
www.solved.fi
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