what’s next after the worst one-year drought?
DESCRIPTION
John W. Neilson-Gammon's PowerPoint Presentation from the Panhandle Groundwater Conservation Districts Inaugural Texas Panhandle Water Conservation SymposiumTRANSCRIPT
What’s Next After the Worst
One-Year Drought?
John W. Nielsen-Gammon
Texas State Climatologist
Texas A&M University
Rainfall Duration
Ra
infa
ll A
mo
un
t
Rainfall Duration
Ra
infa
ll A
mo
un
t
Rainfall Duration
Ra
infa
ll A
mo
un
t
Rainfall Duration
Ra
infa
ll A
mo
un
t
Rainfall Duration
Ra
infa
ll A
mo
un
t
Sea Surface Temperature Departures from Normal
La Niña Years El NiñoYears
Dryness contribution to hot summer: 4.0 +/- 0.6 °F
Official La Niña
threshold
One Year
Ago
Now
Fall Winter Spring Summer Fall
February
through April
April
through June
Driest in
30 years
Tenth-driest
in 30 years
Tenth-wettest
in 30 years
Wettest in
30 years
33% 34% 33%
34% 45% 21%
33% 33% 33%
Driest in
30 years
Tenth-driest
in 30 years
Tenth-wettest
in 30 years
Wettest in
30 years
Source: IPCC AR4 Working Group 1 SPM http://www.ipcc.ch
PANHANDLE
AND PLAINS
FAR WEST
TEXAS
WEST
CENTRAL
TEXAS
SOUTH
CENTRAL
TEXAS
SOUTH
TEXAS
SOUTHEAST
TEXAS
NORTH
CENTRAL
TEXAS
EAST
TEXAS
PDO/ENSO Pattern History since 1900
Red: Dry
Green:
Wet
Different
models
agree: La
Niña is
dry for
south-
central
US
PDO/ENSO Pattern History since 1900
Pacific
(PDO)
Texas
Precip
Atlantic
(AMO)
Shad
ing:
Dro
ughty
per
iods
1900 1940 1980 2020 2060
Time
Tem
pera
ture
Drought Outlook
• Departing La Niña – Drought likely to continue in most of state
– Almost half of all 2-year La Niñas get a third year
• Period of drought susceptibility – Ocean temperature patterns favor drought
– Period will last another 3-15 years
• Longer Term – More rain if we’re lucky
– Warmer temperatures and more evaporation: very likely
Contact Information
• John W. Nielsen-Gammon
• 979-862-2248
• http://atmo.tamu.edu/osc
• http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss